Info Demographer Jan 2016 · 2018-08-21 · Information Item Date: January 11, 2016 Division: Schools and Student Activities ! ... 17 Forney ISD 409 435 679 12,466 18 Plano ISD 494

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Information Item

Date: January 11, 2016 Division: Schools and Student Activities  Subject: 3Q15 Demographer Report Background Information:

• LISD has contracted with Templeton Demographics since September, 2013. They provide quarterly updates on employment and housing information for the areas LISD serves.

• The 3Q15 report is attached.

Learn from Yesterday…

Understand Today…

Plan for Tomorrow

Lewisville

Independent

School

District

Quarterly Report

3Q15

Economic Conditions – DFW MSA (September 2015)

Lewisville

Unemployment Rate• U.S. 4.9%

• Texas 4.4%

• DFW MSA 3.9%

• Lewisville 3.1%-0.8%

Job Growth

DFW MSA

• 98,700 new jobs created in the last

12 months

• 50% more than the national rate

of 2.0%

3.0%

Annual SF Starts

DFW MSA

• 2,877 more than previous year over year

• A 12.5% rise from 3Q14

25,881

2

DFW Corporate Relocations

3

More than 18,800 new jobs are relocating to DFW

Legacy West Legacy West Tenants

• Almost 1 Million square foot

high-rise campus

• $325 Million project

• 6,000 total employees

• 2,000 will be new local

hires

• 4,000 will be existing

employees moved from

other locations

• Expected to open in 2017

• 100-acre campus, 2.1

Million square feet

• Approximately 4,000

employees• 350 employees

already arrived

• Toyota expects to

have 400 employees

on the ground by

end of 2015

• Construction scheduled

to be completed early

2017

• 265,000 Square

foot office

• Construction is

complete and

office is currently

open

• 1,200

employees

4

Existing Home Inventory (1.9 Month’s Supply)

-3%

Southeast Denton County Housing MarketYear Over Year Comparisons

5

4%

9%

14%

-1%

-26%

YTD Sales(3,987 YTD Sales Oct. 2015)

Number of Listings(720 Oct. 2015)

Average Price($311,569 Oct. 2015)

Median Price($274,000 Oct. 2015)

Days on the Market(34 Days)

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q15

6

*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff

(Added The Realm 450 lots; Southgate 448 lots; Bunn Gourley East 150 lots; Castle Hills South 177 lots; The Pinnacle at Riverwalk 71 Lots;

Parkmont Place Townhomes 52 lots;)

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Frisco ISD 2,907 2,768 3,621 8,915

2 Denton ISD 1,846 1,694 2,706 16,613

3 Prosper ISD 1,570 1,374 2,925 31,759

4 Northwest ISD 1,151 1,105 1,722 22,841

5 Lewisville ISD 1,188 988 2,194 *4,322

6 Keller ISD 977 981 951 2,341

7 Dallas ISD 1,125 968 2,334 5,641

8 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD 948 869 1,328 19,796

9 Little Elm ISD 955 708 1,676 4,821

10 Rockwall ISD 681 665 1,836 8,379

11 Allen ISD 478 550 781 1,531

12 McKinney ISD 531 547 1,425 5,968

13 Mansfield ISD 608 517 1,012 5,657

14 Crowley ISD 534 508 1,319 8,057

15 Wylie ISD 641 460 728 4,353

16 HEB ISD 422 436 481 5,064

17 Forney ISD 409 435 679 12,466

18 Plano ISD 494 427 910 2,771

19 Midlothian ISD 480 415 1,255 20,524

20 Garland ISD 370 401 725 3,313

New Housing Activity 3Q15

• 3Q15 starts were up 62.35% over 3Q14

• 3Q15 closings totaled 305, up 33.18% over 3Q14

• Inventory climbing is likely a result of labor constraints

7

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1Q 133 103 131 223 188 286 1Q 170 118 133 222 159 181

2Q 167 156 189 273 254 280 2Q 165 136 191 245 205 244

3Q 193 199 190 225 263 427 3Q 183 168 173 204 229 305

4Q 130 165 221 243 195 4Q 166 206 161 233 258

Total 623 623 731 964 900 993 Total 684 628 658 904 851 730

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Starts Closings Inventory

Annual Closing Distribution 3Q15

8

Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL

1 Mustang Park 112 39 1152 Castle Hills Phase 8 89 54 2423 Lakeside DFW (Flower Mound) 88 20 594 Hills At Indian Creek 58 3 05 Castle Hills Phase 7 55 19 106 Shops At Prestonwood, The 45 9 357 Avondale (Carrollton) 37 12 78 Castle Hills Golf Villas Iii 32 7 759 Mustang Park Townhomes 31 11 119

10 Preserve At Vista Ridge 27 11 0TOTALS 574 185 662

Vacant Developed Lots 3Q15

9

Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 Castle Hills Phase 8 89 242 02 Mustang Park Townhomes 31 119 03 Wyndale Meadows Addition 19 118 474 Mustang Park 112 115 05 Creekside At Austin Waters 0 111 06 Lakeridge Townhomes 3 91 07 Hills Of Kingswood, The 23 90 4518 River Walk At Central Park Villas 0 83 09 Fairwater 1 81 0

10 Normandy Estates 7 79 0TOTALS 285 1,129 498

Future Lots 3Q15

10

Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future

1 Hills of Kingswood, The 90 451

2 The Realm 0 450

3 Southgate 0 448

4 Lakewood Hill Addition (CAMEY) 0 422

5 Windhaven Crossing Townhomes 0 367

6 River Walk at Central Park TH 0 263

7 Bunn Gourley East 0 200

8 Castle Hills South 0 177

9 Verona Addition (Lewisville) 0 138

10 Bunn Gourley West 0 105

TOTALS 90 3,021

Overall Housing DataBy Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category

11

Elementary Annual

Starts

Quarter

Starts

Annual

Closings

Quarter

ClosingsInventory

Vacant

Dev. LotsFuture

BLUEBONNET 147 44 139 35 82 88 680

BRIDLEWOOD 0 0 0 0 0 2 49

CAMEY 0 0 0 0 0 0 872

CASTLE HILLS 104 37 96 30 48 139 0

CENTRAL 10 10 11 0 11 23 100

COLLEGE STREET 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

COYOTE RIDGE 52 17 75 11 29 10 0

CREEKSIDE 31 20 22 0 21 29 0

DEGAN 9 9 0 0 9 53 33

DONALD 21 10 20 4 15 42 0

ETHRIDGE 6 0 6 3 3 91 0

FLOWER MOUND 37 18 15 5 38 196 483

FOREST VISTA 2 1 5 0 1 69 0

GARDEN RIDGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 98

HEBRON VALLEY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HEDRICK 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

HERITAGE 14 3 18 4 12 100 104

HIGHLAND VILLAGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 29

HOMESTEAD 5 0 5 1 1 10 0

INDEPENDENCE 75 33 19 13 56 171 414

INDIAN CREEK 226 67 225 71 130 279 0

LAKELAND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LEWISVILLE 40 11 19 9 21 0 0

LIBERTY 5 1 4 1 10 50 370

MCAULIFFE 2 0 2 0 3 16 14

MCNAIR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MORNINGSIDE 142 51 89 54 72 242 0

OLD SETTLERS 4 2 6 3 4 10 58

PARKWAY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PETERS COLONY 0 0 0 0 0 0 103

POLSER 0 0 0 0 0 0 177

PRAIRIE TRAIL 23 5 47 6 8 0 0

ROCKBROOK 125 37 104 37 83 132 52

SOUTHRIDGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

STEWARTS CREEK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TIMBER CREEK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOM HICKS 88 43 50 16 78 405 541

VALLEY RIDGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 138

VICKERY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

WELLINGTON 20 8 11 2 18 37 3

Grand Total 1188 427 988 305 753 2194 4322

Active SubdivisionThe Hills of Kingswood

12

The Hills of Kingswood

• 635 total lots

• 451 future lots

• 66 occupied homes

• 20 homes under construction

• 90 vacant developed lots

• 314.15 total acres

• Homes average $500K with some as

high as $3.8M

• 19 current students• 15 elementary students

• 2 intermediate students

• 1 middle school student

• 1 high school student

•Estimated student yield= .29

• Tom Hicks Elementary

Future SubdivisionNickels and Dimes Ranch

Nickels and Dimes Ranch(may be known as Singer Ranch)

• Currently under contract, but not

expected to close until mid-January 2016

• Possible single-family residential at

some point in the future

• City of Carrollton

• Castle Hills Elementary

13

Overall Housing DataTown of Flower Mound

14

November 2015

Single-Family Residential

• 3,003 Total Lots (LISD Only)

• 2,067 Undeveloped Lots Approved

(LISD Only)

Developments Not In LISD:

• Belle Trace (Denton ISD)

• Canyon Falls (Argyle ISD)

• Montalcino (Argyle ISD)

• Trailwood Terrace (Argyle ISD)

Development Stage Approved Total # of SF lots # Permitted/Built # UndevelopedAdams Estates Subdivision Accepted 26 24 2Auburn Farms Plat Recorded 16 13 3Bella Strada, Ph. II Subdivision Accepted 20 20 0Belle Trace Zoning Pending 64 0 64Brighton Place Plat Approved 3 0 3Bunn Gourley West Development Plan Approved 105 0 105Canyon Falls Various 972 210 762Creekside at Heritage Park I Subdivision Accepted 56 43 13Creekside at Heritage Park II Plat Approved 44 0 44Creekside at Heritage Park III Development Plan Approved 42 0 42Edgewood Plat Recorded 49 0 49Enclave at Chateau Du lac Subdivision Accepted 35 14 21Estancia Estates Subdivision Accepted 54 20 34Flower Mound Oaks Subdivision Accepted 57 48 9Forest Vista Estates Subdivision Accepted 12 7 5Hawthorne Subdivision Accepted 52 52 0Highland Court Record Plat Pending 97 0 97High Meadow Plat Recorded 15 5 9Hilliard Tract Development Plan Pending 96 0 96Hillside of Flower Mound Zoning Pending 27 0 27Hunter's Glen Plat Recorded 71 3 68Lakeside DFW - JBGL, Ph. 1 Subdivision Accepted 425 425 0Legends Subdivision Accepted 92 18 74Liberty Park Record Plat Pending 12 0 12Magnolia Park Record Plat Pending 26 0 26Montalcino I Subdivision Accepted 39 21 18Montalcino II Withdrawing Zoning Application 0 0 0Orchard Flower Plat Recorded 98 2 96Parkside at Woodlake Plat Approved 40 0 40Preserve Subdivision Accepted 83 48 35Red Hawk Zoning Pending 4 0 4Regency Park II Subdivision Accepted 37 12 25Ridge Bluff Zoning Approved 4 0 4River Walk Villas Subdivision Accepted 93 16 77River Walk Various Plats Approved 335 0 335Saddlewood Record Plat Pending 49 0 49Southgate Development Plans Pending 475 0 475Surrey Lane Addition Subdivision Accepted 3 3 0Terracina Subdivision Accepted 169 50 119The Conservatory Zoning Pending 64 0 64Trailwood Terrace Development Plan Pending 309 0 309Vilamoura Subdivision Accepted 28 24 4Waterford Park III Subdivision Accepted 58 57 1Whisper Creek Subdivision Accepted 31 31 0Totals: 4387 1166 3220

Overall Housing DataMulti-Family Update (November 2015)

15

EntityProject

Name

Total

UnitsLocation Zone Status

The Colony The Boathouse 526SWC Windhaven Parkway

& Plano ParkwayPeters Colony

Complete Dec.

2015

The Colony The Hudson 699SWC Windhaven Parkway

& Plano ParkwayPeters Colony

Under

Construction

Carrollton Lakeview Pointe Apartments 185 1652 W Frankford Hebron ValleyUnder

Construction

Carrollton Salado Apartments 330 4221 Old Denton Road Hebron ValleyUnder

Construction

Lewisville Pine Prairie 300 951 N. Leora Lane EthridgeUnder

Construction

Lewisville Hebron 121 Station III 242 880 Union Station Parkway RockbrookUnder

Construction

Lewisville Hebron 121 Station (Phase IV) 250 880 Union Station Parkway Rockbrook

Planning Stages;

Not Submitted To

City of Lewisville

FriscoAmalfi at Stonebriar Commons

(Phase II)286 5275 Town & Country Drive Hicks

Not Yet Submitted

To City of Frisco

Frisco Ravello at Stonebriar 216 NWC Legacy Drive & Highway 121 Hicks

Site Plan

Approved By

City of Frisco

Flower Mound River Walk Phase II 358 NEC 2499 & 1171 Flower MoundUnder

Construction

Flower Mound

Lakeside DFW

(1925 Total Units Permitted &

425 Currently Under Construction)

425 2501 Lakeside Parkway Bluebonnet

Site Plan

Approved/Under

Construction

3,817 Units

Overall Housing DataCastle Hills Development Update (November 2015)

Project Name

Total

Planned

Lots/Units

TypeElementary

ZoneConstruction Status

Golf Villas II 94Single-Family

Residential Castle Hills

Developer estimates building 50

units in 2015 and 44 units in 2016

Castle Hills Phase 8 379Single-Family

ResidentialMorningside

Developer estimates building 100

units or more in 2015 and 100 units

in 2016; New residents are

beginning to move into new homes

this month

Castle Hills South

(aka Burndt Tract)177

Single-Family

ResidentialPolser

New housing addition in Castle Hills;

Developer estimates lot deliveries in

Spring 2016; 60 or more homes to

be built in 2016 and 117 in 2017;

Discovery at the Realm 4,000Multi-Family

ResidentialCamey

Developer estimates bringing

the first 457 units on-line in 2016

The Bridges 1,500Multi-Family

ResidentialCamey

Developer estimates bringing

the first 230 units on-line in 2016

16

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

• Lewisville ISD is expecting to reach 53,500 students by 2017

• 5-Year enrollment growth = 416 students

• 2020/21 enrollment = 53,818

• 10 Year enrollment growth = 1,139 students

• 2025/26 enrollment = 54,541

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

17

Year (OCT) EE PK EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalsTotal

Growth%

Growth

2011/12 224 1,240 1,464 3,570 3,855 3,817 3,896 3,959 4,020 4,136 4,040 3,979 4,078 3,919 3,702 3,485 51,920

2012/13 199 1,532 1,731 3,613 3,701 3,840 3,815 3,939 3,996 4,065 4,170 4,136 4,144 3,991 3,736 3,651 52,528 608 1.2%

2013/14 168 1,527 1,695 3,493 3,752 3,782 3,918 3,906 4,008 4,020 4,118 4,189 4,275 4,044 3,925 3,676 52,801 273 0.5%

2014/15 158 1,695 1,853 3,405 3,643 3,786 3,864 3,978 3,987 4,064 4,124 4,181 4,400 4,225 4,047 3,799 53,356 555 1.1%

2015/16 108 1,636 1,744 3,353 3,567 3,616 3,833 3,888 4,056 4,111 4,114 4,143 4,482 4,350 4,162 3,983 53,402 46 0.1%

2016/17 108 1,636 1,744 3,424 3,508 3,600 3,693 3,884 3,963 4,141 4,177 4,195 4,334 4,418 4,283 4,074 53,437 35 0.1%

2017/18 108 1,636 1,744 3,503 3,565 3,590 3,682 3,773 3,981 4,006 4,185 4,260 4,398 4,277 4,345 4,216 53,524 88 0.2%

2018/19 108 1,636 1,744 3,555 3,662 3,675 3,683 3,749 3,861 4,130 4,080 4,242 4,468 4,350 4,217 4,276 53,691 167 0.3%

2019/20 108 1,636 1,744 3,594 3,694 3,731 3,793 3,744 3,826 3,949 4,206 4,155 4,459 4,393 4,279 4,136 53,702 10 0.0%

2020/21 108 1,636 1,744 3,666 3,709 3,756 3,815 3,847 3,811 3,958 4,024 4,250 4,358 4,385 4,304 4,191 53,818 116 0.2%

2021/22 108 1,636 1,744 3,712 3,792 3,768 3,844 3,848 3,932 3,930 4,018 4,062 4,450 4,303 4,304 4,225 53,932 115 0.2%

2022/23 108 1,636 1,744 3,747 3,828 3,858 3,839 3,898 3,917 4,047 3,985 4,070 4,261 4,398 4,222 4,221 54,035 103 0.2%

2023/24 108 1,636 1,744 3,771 3,863 3,899 3,934 3,879 3,967 4,015 4,109 4,022 4,284 4,199 4,313 4,140 54,139 104 0.2%

2024/25 108 1,636 1,744 3,805 3,896 3,926 3,972 3,976 3,949 4,073 4,083 4,159 4,210 4,213 4,119 4,230 54,355 216 0.4%

2025/26 108 1,636 1,744 3,844 3,929 3,961 3,987 4,015 4,051 4,060 4,138 4,129 4,357 4,152 4,133 4,041 54,541 186 0.3%

Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

*Yellow box = over stated capacity

18

Optimal Capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

CAMPUS 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

BLUEBONNET ELEMENTARY 535 527 553 581 613 637 645 662 678 705 734 760

BRIDLEWOOD ELEMENTARY 792 441 399 369 374 375 376 385 352 358 361 368

CAMEY ELEMENTARY 720 506 545 594 672 772 820 817 846 847 866 896

CASTLE HILLS ELEMENTARY 713 707 686 660 655 652 654 677 674 678 684 687

CENTRAL ELEMENTARY 1,287 952 962 951 950 961 971 964 960 955 945 942

COLLEGE ST. ELEMENTARY 277 247 230 225 206 196 194 199 200 203 206 209

COYOTE RIDGE ELEMENTARY 673 673 660 655 630 627 624 631 648 659 673 686

CREEKSIDE ELEMENTARY 535 473 455 439 425 389 373 375 382 391 394 398

DEGAN ELEMENTARY 673 641 626 614 610 608 619 628 634 641 642 651

DONALD ELEMENTARY 752 478 464 442 434 414 404 408 410 411 411 414

ETHRIDGE ELEMENTARY 554 492 473 470 456 451 446 455 461 466 473 480

FLOWER MOUND ELEMENTARY 574 499 493 493 517 530 539 557 577 583 589 600

FOREST VISTA ELEMENTARY 832 526 504 504 512 509 526 535 538 539 541 543

GARDEN RIDGE ELEMENTARY 515 437 428 428 435 449 466 475 488 497 508 519

HEBRON VALLEY ELEMENTARY 792 577 584 604 615 610 617 616 609 613 614 613

HEDRICK ELEMENTARY 792 622 630 655 652 655 656 661 658 659 662 662

HERITAGE ELEMENTARY 871 638 612 590 578 570 552 552 554 554 557 560

HICKS ELEMENTARY 673 589 579 600 606 618 657 676 694 698 694 689

HIGHLAND VILLAGE ELEMENTARY 495 363 359 371 371 396 415 424 435 438 435 435

HOMESTEAD ELEMENTARY 634 589 587 600 623 635 638 651 643 651 655 653

INDEPENDENCE ELEMENTARY 931 798 807 850 870 874 880 907 916 946 962 984

INDIAN CREEK ELEMENTARY 713 621 618 608 603 603 605 605 612 613 621 635

JACKSON EARLY ED. CENTER 727 727 727 727 727 727 727 727 727 727 727

LAKELAND ELEMENTARY 871 896 877 873 876 870 858 857 854 849 845 842

Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

*Yellow box = over stated capacity

19

Optimal Capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

CAMPUS 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

LEWISVILLE ELEMENTARY 713 846 856 875 868 877 884 896 899 905 908 901

LIBERTY ELEMENTARY 851 601 564 529 500 499 505 514 523 535 546 557

MCAULIFFE ELEMENTARY 614 509 513 528 529 529 519 528 531 532 539 544

MORNINGSIDE ELEMENTARY 535 423 420 433 466 478 483 485 477 477 483 487

OLD SETTLERS ELEMENTARY 871 584 559 532 523 521 529 533 533 530 534 536

OWEN ELEMENTARY 515 467 466 465 460 482 501 505 510 510 511 511

PARKWAY ELEMENTARY 673 517 511 507 487 477 470 474 482 489 496 506

PETERS COLONY ELEMENTARY 792 803 800 797 793 796 812 824 831 851 858 876

POLSER ELEMENTARY 634 439 429 440 450 441 463 471 480 491 501 511

PRAIRIE TRAIL ELEMENTARY 792 644 666 679 712 722 709 712 707 696 689 686

ROCKBROOK ELEMENTARY 832 746 740 721 724 741 754 758 779 798 808 823

SOUTHRIDGE ELEMENTARY 673 629 626 620 602 610 610 619 626 628 640 653

STEWARTS CREEK ELEMENTARY 436 411 413 421 431 439 453 460 461 467 463 465

TIMBER CREEK ELEMENTARY 535 459 463 464 458 476 491 491 497 503 507 510

VALLEY RIDGE ELEMENTARY 832 521 488 481 481 487 497 505 518 528 538 547

VICKERY ELEMENTARY 634 537 529 500 483 470 466 481 492 501 515 530

WELLINGTON ELEMENTARY 851 898 911 939 948 949 936 936 931 931 929 931

ELEMENTARY TOTALS 27,452 24,053 23,812 23,834 23,925 24,122 24,344 24,636 24,827 25,053 25,264 25,527

Elementary Total Change -458 -241 22 91 197 222 292 191 226 211 263

Elementary Percent Change -1.87% -1.00% 0.09% 0.38% 0.82% 0.92% 1.20% 0.78% 0.91% 0.84% 1.04%

Ten Year ForecastBy Middle School Campus

*Yellow box = over stated capacity

20

Optimal Capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCAMPUS 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

ARBOR CREEK MIDDLE SCHOOL 909 983 956 941 900 898 900 882 899 920 953 968

BRIARHILL MIDDLE SCHOOL 909 895 882 857 858 823 828 796 804 789 802 814

CREEK VALLEY MIDDLE SCHOOL 888 755 711 674 660 670 671 690 673 682 669 673

DELAY MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,015 982 1,080 1,087 1,196 1,240 1,238 1,168 1,138 1,123 1,139 1,150

DOWNING MIDDLE SCHOOL 846 602 570 539 497 439 396 362 393 398 413 380

DURHAM MIDDLE SCHOOL 846 813 839 845 826 823 810 789 779 766 780 790

FORESTWOOD MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,079 789 847 882 813 768 704 701 699 720 730 735

GRIFFIN MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,128 794 798 855 871 841 791 783 828 858 867 857

HEDRICK MIDDLE SCHOOL 867 717 720 738 791 813 838 818 809 794 804 810

HUFFINES MIDDLE SCHOOL 867 829 867 860 859 815 814 803 793 796 792 795

KILLIAN MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,121 929 945 951 1,012 1,015 1,039 989 960 938 967 970

LAKEVIEW MIDDLE SCHOOL 846 765 771 732 756 777 832 857 903 930 937 923

LAMAR MIDDLE SCHOOL 888 709 686 682 688 697 691 718 738 750 764 763

MCKAMY MIDDLE SCHOOL 910 1,077 1,109 1,064 1,028 1,019 1,033 998 1,003 993 997 992

SHADOW RIDGE MIDDLE SCHOOL 867 690 693 705 658 633 608 617 644 650 662 668

MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 13,986 12,329 12,474 12,412 12,413 12,271 12,193 11,971 12,063 12,107 12,276 12,288

Middle School Total Change -2 145 -62 1 -142 -78 -222 92 44 169 12

Middle School Percent Change -0.02% 1.18% -0.50% 0.01% -1.14% -0.64% -1.82% 0.77% 0.36% 1.40% 0.10%

Ten Year ForecastBy High School and Alternative Campus

*Yellow box = over stated capacity

21

Optimal Capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

CAMPUS 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

FLOWER MOUND 9th GRADE CAMPUS 900 891 798 891 976 887 875 823 792 801 798 822

HEBRON 9th GRADE CAMPUS 1,193 884 1,011 917 936 938 892 932 963 893 882 920

MARCUS 9th GRADE CAMPUS 900 839 756 745 697 711 683 657 614 668 606 665

FLOWER MOUND HIGH SCHOOL 2,903 2,650 2,727 2,622 2,556 2,641 2,730 2,720 2,572 2,477 2,406 2,383

HEBRON HIGH SCHOOL 3,038 2,570 2,609 2,738 2,776 2,823 2,721 2,693 2,684 2,703 2,698 2,656

LEWISVILLE HIGH SCHOOL 2,115 2,040 2,104 2,261 2,266 2,251 2,317 2,360 2,410 2,515 2,501 2,397

LEWISVILLE BEN HARMON HS 1,148 1,272 1,300 1,321 1,411 1,420 1,434 1,509 1,521 1,460 1,416 1,393

LEWISVILLE KILLOUGH 1,193 1,067 1,046 1,003 1,003 1,044 1,069 1,087 1,086 1,042 1,040 1,027

MARCUS HIGH SCHOOL 2,543 2,478 2,463 2,404 2,331 2,180 2,136 2,074 2,039 1,943 1,931 1,882

THE COLONY HIGH SCHOOL 2,228 2,060 2,087 2,117 2,147 2,157 2,168 2,214 2,208 2,221 2,281 2,325

HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 18,161 16,751 16,901 17,019 17,099 17,052 17,025 17,069 16,889 16,723 16,559 16,470

High School Total Change 478 150 118 80 -47 -27 44 -180 -166 -164 -89

High School Percent Change 2.94% 0.90% 0.70% 0.47% -0.27% -0.16% 0.26% -1.05% -0.98% -0.98% -0.54%

LEARNING CENTER 614 269 250 259 254 257 256 256 256 256 256 256

ALTERNATIVE CAMPUS TOTALS 614 269 250 259 254 257 256 256 256 256 256 256

DISTRICT TOTALS 60,213 53,402 53,437 53,524 53,691 53,702 53,818 53,932 54,035 54,139 54,355 54,541

District Total Change 46 35 88 167 10 116 115 103 104 216 186

District Percent Change 0.09% 0.06% 0.16% 0.31% 0.02% 0.22% 0.21% 0.19% 0.19% 0.40% 0.34%

Summary

• DFW will continue to be a leader in job and population growth

with 98,700 jobs created over the last 12 months.

• Lewisville ISD new home starts in 3Q15 were up almost 63% over the third quarter of 2014.

• Vacant Developed Lot supply remains in good position to sustain

new housing growth.

• Bluebonnet, Indian Creek and Morningside have the highest

activity of new home starts representing 43% of the total starts

for the district.

• LISD can expect an increase of approximately 400 students

during the next 5 years.

• 2020/21 enrollment projection: 53,818 students.

• LISD is projected to have over 54,500 students for the 2025/26

school year.

22

Resources

ISD Development Research

• MetroStudy: The leading provider of primary research and analysis on residential real

estate development and new-home construction. Providing quarterly housing data reports

which includes all active and future subdivisions which fall within Lewisville ISD.

• ALN Apartment Data, Inc. which details all existing, under construction & future apartment

complexes occurring within major metro areas and their surrounding communities.

• City and Town Planning and/or Economic Development Staff

• Cities/Towns of Carrollton, Highland Village, Double Oak, Copper Canyon,

Coppell, Frisco, Plano, The Colony, Lewisville, Flower Mound

• In person/phone/email/web site research

• Local developers & real estate agents

National/State/Regional Economic Research

• Federal Reserve

• Texas A&M Real Estate Center

• Texas Education Agency historical enrollment data

• Texas Comptroller’s Office

• Texas Workforce Commission

• US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• US Census Bureau

• US Department of Labor

NOTE: Additional resources are used for research and may not be listed (i.e. Local Chamber of Commerce) 23