Influence
Mar 28, 2015
Influence
Freewrite
Do trailer parks cause tornadoes?
Why or why not?
Why would somebody ask that?
Why do I ask?
• Don’t forget to turn this in for participation credit!
Tornados and trailer parks
The problem of “buying votes”
• Interest groups do give – To members on committees important to their
policy area– More money right before an important vote
• Members do vote with the groups that give them money
• Problem of simultaneous causation
Which is cause and which is effect?
Interest group gives a
campaign contribution
Member votes with interest group
Member takes issue positions
favorable to an interest group
Interest group lobbies member
When members of Congress decide how to cast a vote, what
do they consider?
How do members of Congress make decisions?
Determinative Major importance
Minor importance
Not important
Constituents 7% 31% 51% 12%
Fellow MC’s 5% 42% 28% 25%
Party leaders 0% 5% 32% 63%
Interest groups 1% 25% 40% 35%
Administration 4% 14% 21% 61%
Staff 1% 8% 26% 66%
How do MC’s make decisions?
• Fellow members
• Constituents
• Interest Groups
• President
• Party
• Staff
Complexity of Interest Group influence
Member of Congress
Constituents
Party
Other members
Interest Group
Campaign Contributions & lobbying
Going public
Campaign contributions
/ revolving door
loyalty
Interest groups and the public
• Get own members to write to/visit member of Congress– Particularly MC’s own constituents!
• Lobby the public– Get journalists to cover group’s issue/
research/demonstrations– Run TV ads about upcoming vote– Take part in the culture war
Complexity of Interest Group influence
Member of Congress
Constituents
Party
Other members
Interest Group
Campaign Contributions & lobbying
Going public
Campaign contributions
/ revolving door
loyalty
Methodological issues
• Of course they’d say that.
• Is there a mechanism?
• How to take all factors into account?– “Statistics”!
Research conclusions
• PAC contributions don’t buy votes on issues that constituents are aware of, or party cares about
• PAC Contributions may influence…• committee votes on amendments• level of member activity• tax and regulatory bills (low profile) more
than spending bills
How could we prove that campaign contributions/access/lobbying
affects congressional outcomes?
Interest group gives a
campaign contribution
Member votes with interest group
Member takes issue positions
favorable to an interest group
Interest group lobbies member