KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>, ThomsonReuters, Factset and Capital IQ September 26, 2016 India Equity Institutional Research | E-Commerce Initiating Coverage Infibeam Incorporation Ltd. INR 947 Powering E-Commerce BUY Infibeam is an e-commerce company, focused on developing successful e- commerce platforms and ecosystems. In addition to Infibeam.com, a multi- category B2C e-retail site, through Infibeam BuildaBazaar (“BaB”) e-commerce marketplace, the company provides a cloud-based, modular, customizable and scalable technology platform as well as e-commerce infrastructure and logistics support for a diverse universe of merchants, products and services. At 44% CAGR, E-commerce is set to become a $ 44 Bn business opportunity over the next 4 years: With an e-commerce boom running in India at full-swing, the rate at which the brick and mortar retailers are transforming to an online platform is unimaginable. India’s ‘e-tail’ market stood at US$ 7 Bn in 2015 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 44% to US$ 44 Bn by 2020. As of FY15, Infibeam’s potential addressable market, i.e. the organized offline retail market, stands at US$ 46 Bn (INR 3,082 Bn). This market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 26% between FY15 to FY20 to US$ 146 Bn (INR 9,782 Bn). Read More: E-Commerce Industry Digital Advertizing Industry Business Model built strategically to drive a profit making e-commerce company which is cash accretive: Infibeam operates on a synergistic and integrated business model primarily divided into two segments – Product business and Services business. The products business operates on a standard e-retail B2C market place model where merchants meet users. Read More: Business Model Revenue Mix BuildaBazaar.com Value Added Services Financials .ooo registry to drive revenue growth under Value Added Services (VAS) Infibeam is the only company in India to own a Global Top Level Domain (GTLD) registry, namely “.ooo”. Given the right level of advertising/marketing initiatives, we believe that this domain can acquire a huge market in the online market space. The domain registry can act as a smart strategy for acquiring customers as the .com domain gets concentrated incrementally, customers/merchants will have to switch to alternative domains to register the name of their choice. Read More: Domain Registry Business Payment Gateway Solutions Upstream and Downstream expansion plans to drive revenue and margin growth: As of 31 st March, 2016 the Company has 6 warehouses and 12 logistic centers and the company plans to expand to 75 centers within the next three years at an estimated cost of INR 375 Million. The investment is expected to result in cost efficiency because as opposed to outsourcing logistics, wherein each product is transported individually (and therefore bearing a bigger cost), owned logistics will result in bulk transfers, reduced operational costs and thus improved margins. The company can also harness additional revenue by offering logistic services to merchants. Read More: Value Added Service Offerings Geographical Expansion Logistics Solutions - ShipDroid Marketing & Analytics - Odigma Target Price (INR): INR 1,062 Potential Upside : 12.4% Market Data Shares outs (Mn) 53.09 Equity Cap (Mn) 530.9 Mkt Cap (INR Mn) 5,0250.9 52 Wk H/L (INR) 978/431 Vol(No-shares) 824.93 Face Value (INR) 10 Bloomberg Code INFIBEAM IN Market Info: SENSEX 28668 NIFTY 8832 Share Price Performance Share Holding pattern (%) Particulars Jun16 Mar16 Dec15 Promoters 45.52 45.52 0.00 FIIs 6.97 2.35 0.00 DIIs 2.96 12.36 0.00 Public 44.55 39.77 0.00 Total 100 100 100 Analyst: Mayank Babla [email protected]91-22-6696 5429 www.krchoksey.com 91-22-6696 529 91-22-6691 9569 80 120 160 200 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Sensex Infibeam Inc
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Infibeam Incorporation Ltd. INR 947is trading at EV/Sales (x) of 8x, 5.5x and 3.7x to its FY17E, FY18E and FY19E revenues. Notably, the services segment contributes ~31% to top-line,
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KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>, ThomsonReuters, Factset and Capital IQ September 26, 2016
India Equity Institutional Research | E-Commerce Initiating Coverage
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd. INR 947
Powering E-Commerce BUY
Infibeam is an e-commerce company, focused on developing successful e-
commerce platforms and ecosystems. In addition to Infibeam.com, a multi-
category B2C e-retail site, through Infibeam BuildaBazaar (“BaB”) e-commerce
marketplace, the company provides a cloud-based, modular, customizable and
scalable technology platform as well as e-commerce infrastructure and logistics
support for a diverse universe of merchants, products and services.
At 44% CAGR, E-commerce is set to become a $ 44 Bn business
opportunity over the next 4 years:
With an e-commerce boom running in India at full-swing, the rate at which the
brick and mortar retailers are transforming to an online platform is unimaginable.
India’s ‘e-tail’ market stood at US$ 7 Bn in 2015 and is expected to grow at a
CAGR of 44% to US$ 44 Bn by 2020. As of FY15, Infibeam’s potential
addressable market, i.e. the organized offline retail market, stands at US$ 46 Bn
(INR 3,082 Bn). This market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 26% between
FY15 to FY20 to US$ 146 Bn (INR 9,782 Bn).
Read More:
E-Commerce Industry Digital Advertizing Industry
Business Model built strategically to drive a profit making e-commerce
company which is cash accretive:
Infibeam operates on a synergistic and integrated business model primarily
divided into two segments – Product business and Services business. The
products business operates on a standard e-retail B2C market place model where
merchants meet users.
Read More:
Business Model Revenue Mix BuildaBazaar.com Value Added Services
Financials
.ooo registry to drive revenue growth under Value Added Services (VAS)
Infibeam is the only company in India to own a Global Top Level Domain (GTLD)
registry, namely “.ooo”. Given the right level of advertising/marketing initiatives,
we believe that this domain can acquire a huge market in the online market
space. The domain registry can act as a smart strategy for acquiring customers
as the .com domain gets concentrated incrementally, customers/merchants will
have to switch to alternative domains to register the name of their choice.
Read More:
Domain Registry Business Payment Gateway Solutions
Upstream and Downstream expansion plans to drive revenue and margin
growth: As of 31st March, 2016 the Company has 6 warehouses and 12 logistic
centers and the company plans to expand to 75 centers within the next three
years at an estimated cost of INR 375 Million. The investment is expected to
result in cost efficiency because as opposed to outsourcing logistics, wherein each
product is transported individually (and therefore bearing a bigger cost), owned
logistics will result in bulk transfers, reduced operational costs and thus improved
margins. The company can also harness additional revenue by offering logistic
services to merchants.
Read More:
Value Added Service Offerings Geographical Expansion Logistics
Development & Maintenance, Logistic services, Data
Center services, advertising services, payment
solutions, Cloud-based services, amongst others and
c) GTLD - .ooo domain is a dormant but a potential
revenue generating source.
Competitive Edge
The company operates on an integrated and
synergistic business model wherein an merchant
cannot only place products on Infibeam’s online
marketplace, but also create their own store
marketplace through BuildaBazaar.com
The company gains its core competitive edge
through value added services (VAS) such as logistic
& warehouse services, data management &
services, data center services, cloud services, sales
& marketing consultancy application development &
maintenance, digital content management,
payment solutions, etc.
An electronic retail model combined with VAS
makes Infibeam an end-to-end solutions provider
and provides an advantage in such a highly
competitive and concentrated market place.
The company currently owns 6 warehouses and 12
logistic centers and plans to expand this number to
75 centers. These acquisitions should entail cost-
savings and added revenue sources.
Financial Structure Infibeam Incorporation is a debt free company with
cash of INR 5181 Mn on it’s books.
The company recorded a combined EBIT margin of
17% as of Q1FY17. PBIT of services segment stood
at INR 178 Mn with a PBIT margin of 55%. RoE
and RoCE were recorded at 2.1% and 2.4%
respectively for FY16.
The company is expected to incur capex to the
tune of INR 275 Mn over FY17E and FY18E purely
from internal accruals and IPO proceeds.
Debtor days were recorded at an average 42 days
over the last 3 years.
Company Brief
Infibeam is an e-commerce
company which has developed
the marketplace & distributed
marketplace model using on an
ERP/SaaS basis and building
Value Added Services for end to
end delivery of order so received
on its SaaS platform. In addition
to Infibeam.com, a multi-
category B2C e-retail site,
through Infibeam BuildaBazaar
(“BaB”) e-commerce
marketplace, the company
provides a cloud-based, modular,
customizable and scalable
technology platform as well as e-
commerce infrastructure and
logistics support for a diverse
universe of merchants, products
and services
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
4 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Key Competitors
Flipkart, E-Bay, Snapdeal, Amazon.in, Jabong, &
Myntra
Marketplace Owner Valuation ($ Bn)
Flipkart
Snapdeal
Jabong
Myntra
Infibeam
$9.3 Bn
$6.5 Bn
$0.07 Bn
$0.3 Bn
$0.7 Bn
Source: Indian Express, Livemint, KR Choksey Research
Industry Revenue
Drivers
India’s GDP is estimated at approximately US$2.1
trillion in fiscal 2015, of which private consumption
will constitute 57%. Out of the total private
consumption in the economy, almost 50% is
comprised of the retail segment. The size of the
Indian retail segment is expected to increase from
US$ 585 billion in 2015 to US$ 2,065 billion in 2025.
In 2007, e-tail in China accounted for 0.7% of total
retail market which has grown to 10.1% in 2014
driven by constraints of brick & mortar organized
retail. The demand and consumption trend in India
will mirror that of China. Due to the inherent
challenges with B&M retail in India, e-tail will grow
at an even faster pace. Faster adoption of
technology and consumption of mobile technology
will lead to rapid growth of e-tail. India is expected
to go the China way in terms of web-only
participants dominating the online market.
Factors such as a) Growth of digital penetration, b)
Growth of internet habitual customers and c)
Limitation of brick and mortar formats to grow will
be major industry revenue drivers going ahead.
Current business
strategy
(1)Enhance logistics and warehousing infrastructure
(2)Technological product innovation
(3)Offering end-to-end solutions right from
launching the merchant on the e-tail market and
cloud based infrastructure to aftermarket services
such as ADM, S&M consultancy, data management,
analytics, etc.
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
5 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Investment Rationale:
Suitable business mix to ride the domestic E-Commerce boom:
Infibeam operates on a synergistic and integrated business model primarily divided into two segments – Product
business and Services business. The products business operates on a standard e-retail B2C market place model where
merchants meet users. However, the services business (under BuildaBazaar.com brand name) adds a scintillating
refinement to the traditional e-commerce model. The platform used by the merchants is provided on cloud wherein it
offers the ease of doing business at an affordable cost. It is a unique value proposition for the local and global
merchants to use this cloud base platform and get online market place instantaneously with ready-to-sell products on
the web. Under this model, the company offers various subscription plans across price points to suit the requirement
of merchants operating at different scale. Service business (BuildaBazaar) currently contributes 31% to Infibeam’s
top-line whereas products business (Infibeam.com) contributes 69%. Services business is also a high margin business
with an EBITDA margin of ~55% as of Q1 FY17.
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
69%
31%
Product Revenue Service Revenue
Infibeam.com
E-commerce website providing 40+ categories of products, 8.2 Mn users and more than 5,000
merchants selling online.
BuildaBazaar.com
Infibeam's platform which enables a company to transform into a digital
enterprise. More than 50,000 merchants have adopted this
platform
Value Added Services (VAS)
Infibeam Logistics - Logistic Services
ODIGMA - Busiess Analytics Services
NSI Infinium Global - Payment Solutions
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd. Service Offerings
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
6 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Unique business mix a sets Infibeam apart from other E-commerce players
Apart from offering e-commerce services and an online market-place for merchants to sell products on their own store front, the platform integrates with many third party services, like payment solution provider, designers, loyalty solution providers that essentially offers merchants a one-stop solution. Additionally, Infibeam has a captive network of total 6 warehouse and 12 logistics centers. We expect this investment into logistics and warehouse centers to
result in cost efficiency (vis-à-vis outsourcing) and a potential source of revenue in the future. The company also plans to roll-out a ‘mobile ad framework’ for as a service offering wherein the merchants can use the framework to publish ads across other merchants. We believe that the services offered by Infibeam make it a one stop shop for 360 degree solutions to a merchant.
Managed market place model provides immense cross-selling opportunities for Infibeam
We believe that Infibeam’s business mix offers tremendous cross-selling opportunities as merchants who register to sell their products on Infibeam.com have a tendency to enroll on BuildaBazaar.com to have their own online storefront. On the other hand, Infibeam’s integrated set of offerings include logistic & warehousing facilities, payment solutions, mobile app framework, etc., which reduce the merchant’s effort of having several points of contact for
different processes. This integrated set of offerings is Infibeam’s Unique Selling Proposition and places the company in an operating quadrant which is different from the other E-commerce companies. Infibeam’s technology enables it to effectively offer its services across multiple media, channels and customer interfaces including digital downloading and streaming services, and providing application framework solutions for supply chain and inventory management. The company’s hosting and technology platform incorporates mobile applications, digital product catalogue, content management, promotions handling, access to payment gateways, as well as inventory and logistics management, and
is capable of being integrated into the customer’s IT infrastructure and third party configurable software. As a cloud based e-commerce platform, the BaB Marketplace ensures significant IT related infrastructure and personnel costs savings as well.
Services provided across the B2B and B2C value chain
We are particularly impressed by Infibeam’s presence across the value chain, i.e. B2C and B2B, as it pushes the
merchant’s products across various platforms which in turn increases the Average Revenue per Supplier/Merchant. We
have analyzed a few cases wherein the merchant has availed services from BuildaBazaar.com as well as listed it’s
products on Infibeam.com to exemplify the cross-selling possibilities present in the business.
Merchant who avails service from BuildaBazaar.com, can automatically sign up on Infibeam.com to sell products
Merchant who sells on Infibeam.com, has a high probability of availing services from BuildaBazaar.com to have it's own storefront.
HiDesign
Manglam Jewelers
Infibeam.comBuildaBazaar.com
HiDesign is a design house manufacturing and retailing fashionable leather goods. HiDesign is a leading example of the immense cross-selling potential that Infibeam holds. Hidesign has availed digital and E-commerce services as a merchant from BuildaBazaar.com and has products listed on Infibeam.com as well. Manglam Jewellers is another example of a merchant who is registered on both BigaBazaar.com (with it’s own storefront) and Infibeam.com as well. This format is the
primary reason why Infibeam enjoys a unique position in the E-commerce industry. Infibeam not only benefits from earnings Set-up costs and monthly charges on BuildaBazaar.com, but also from earnings from Transaction charges on products sold through infibeam.com.
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
7 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
GCMMF contract exemplifies Infibeam’s presence across value chain
In Q1FY17, Infibeam signed an agreement with Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF) for
developing an ‘online and mobile’ framework to enable selling Amul products “direct to home”. This agreement is a
primary example of Infibeam’s presence across the B2B and B2C value chain. GCMMF’s online framework allows a
customer to place an order directly to the company (B2C), which is then processed and forwarded to a Distributor,
Wholesaler, Retailer/Point of Sale (B2B), which in turn is delivered to the Customer.
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Saudi Telecom Authority deal to unlock value through international presence and off-shore centric business model
In Q1FY17, Infibeam has announced that the company’s technology platform has been signed up by Saudi Telecom
company to build a next generation mobile experience “Jawwy”. We believe that an entry into the middle eastern zone
is huge positive for the company and can result in a ‘snow-balling effect’ for the company in terms of merchant
acquisition. Infibeam, in line with its target of international presence, has opened a subsidiary in Dubai and will
continue to look for international growth opportunities aggressively in the coming quarters. We are very optimistic
about the company’s focus on an off-shore centric model and believe it to be margin accretive in the longer term
primarily due ease of replicating the BuildaBazaar.com and Value Added Services infrastructure without significant
costs and investment.
GCMMF
"Amul"Distributor Wholesaler Retailer Customer
Customer places order on
GCMMF's online framework -example of B2C framework
Product moves through the
supply chain and facilitates B2B framework
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
8 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Value added services enhance customer experience and acquisition
Source: Annual Report, KRChoksey Research
Infibeam offers a wide range of Value Added Services (VAS) to enhance customer experience improve customer
acquisition.
ShipDroid – Logistics Solutions: Infibeam revamped it’s logistics solutions by implementing Shipdroid, a service
aggregation platform that helps e-commerce merchants integrate with a wide range of courier service providers onto a
single platform. Infibeam currently has 12 logistic centers and 6 warehouses. The company plans to install a total of
75 logistic centers which will expand delivery reach to 16,000 pin codes across India. Infibeam’s distribution footprint
(post-execution of logistics infrastructure) will provide a significant competitive advantage that will not be easily
replicated by competitors. As Infibeam increases it’s distribution footprint, it not only improves its shipping time and
costs, but also increases sellable product categories (86 product categories as of FY16) that require shorter shipping
time (eg. Packaged foods, groceries, etc.). Logistic and warehouse centers will also serve to improve last mile
connectivity for Infibeam, which can then be converted to additional source of revenues such as Amazon’s Prime
Service (2 day and same day delivery for a certain fee per annum), Amazon Fresh (same day and early morning
delivery for $299 per annum), etc. We believe that Groceries segment represents a major opportunity for Infibeam as
a result of higher reach and shorter delivery times.
Source: BuildaBazaar website, ShipDroid Website, KRChoksey Research
Odigma Consultancy Infibeam Logistics
Sine Qua Non SolutionInfibeam Digital Entertainment
Infibeam
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
9 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
As indicated below, ShipDroid offers various logistics solutions and benefits as shown below:
Source: BuildaBazaar website, ShipDroid Website, KRChoksey Research
Payment Gateway Solutions
Infibeam’s strong IT infrastructure along with Payment Gateway solutions and fulfillment services facilitates acquisition
of new suppliers and addition of new products on the e-tail website. Infibeam acquired a stake in CC Avenue, a
leading payment solutions provider company in 2016 (for INR 600 Mn) and plans to integrate the payment gateway
system for customers shopping on both BuildaBazaar and Infibeam. We believe CC Avenue to bring considerable
synergies in terms of payment solutions for Infibeam as well as added revenue source as the company already caters
to brands like PayTM, MakemyTrip, Clear Trip, McDonald’s, SnapDeal, Myntra, Jabong, etc. The company offers an
array of payment solutions such as 200 payment options, multiple currency processing, Mobile Payments, Faster
Checkouts, etc. Currently, CC Avenue offers 2 options, namely Start-up Pro (Zero Set up fee but Transaction Discount
Rate (TDR) vary between 2% - 4%) and Privelage (INR 30,000 set up fee and negotiable TDRs).
Consultancy, also provides consultancy in e-commerce digital marketing on social media and other interactive
channels. Odgima also focuses on optimizing reach as well as conversions on digital spending for merchants using
analytical data driven techniques. Revenue flows for Odigma are either bundled with merchant revenue share or based
on charges per click, sale or impression. Odigma Consultancy offers solutions under 4 branches with its respective
sub-branches, namely: a) Digital Marketing & Customer Acquisition – Social Media, Video Creation & Marketing, E-mail
marketing, power affiliations, b) Omni Channel Strategy and Solutions – Website Development, Brand Campaigns,
Social CRM, c) Mobile App Development – Apps for Mobiles, App Concepts & Sector Specific Apps d) Digital Media
Distribution – Brand Campaigns, Cross Device Distribution of Content & Strategic Alliances with Media Concepts
Source: Odigma Consultancy Solutions Website, KRChoksey Research
Features Offered (from left to right):
1. No Multiple Courier Agreements
2. Automatic & Smart AWB
management
3. Seamless BuildaBazaar migration
4. One-click pick up generation
5. Easy to use shipping pipeline
6. Single Tracking interface for all couriers
7. Economical
8. Unified Cash on Delivery
Support
9. Best Post-Shipping Support
10. Easy Accounts/Billing Management
11. No minimum commitments
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
10 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Expect Value Added Services to report profits post FY17E
YE March Infibeam Logistics Odigma Consultancy Solutions Sine Qua Non Solutions
Particulars (Rs. Mn)
Shareholding (%) 100% 100% 100%
Reserves & Surplus (3.6) (4.5) (17.8)
Total Assets 104.6 18.5 1.3
Total Liabilities 108.0 22.8 18.8
Revenue 49.7 65.4 1.3
Profit/(Loss) before Tax (3.7) (5.6) (2.6)
Tax Expense 0.0 (1.7) 0.0
Profit/(Loss) after Tax (3.8) (3.9) (2.6)
As of FY16, Infibeam Logistics recorded a top-line of INR 49.7 Mn and Loss of INR 3.8 Mn; Odigma Consultancy
reported a revenue of INR 65.4 Mn and loss of INR 3.9 Mn. Sine Qua Non Solutions, which manages a portion of
payment gateway solutions for Infibeam, recorded a top-line of INR 1.3 Mn and Loss of INR 2.6 Mn.
Management is confident that Infibeam subsidiaries will turn profitable post FY17E largely on account of robust macros
in the Digital marketing/advertising and E-commerce space to result in higher demand for advertising consultancy
services and payment gateway solutions. Digital advertising (specifically search advertising and social media
advertising components) as a component of total advertising is expected to increase from 9.9% in 2015 to 12.7% in
2016 and is expected to outperform Print Media advertising (which is expected to drop from 32.4% as percent of total
advertising in 2015 to 29.7% in 2016) growth rates.
We believe BuildaBazaar and VAS to be star performers BuildaBazaar is Infibeam’s cloud-based market place providing a comprehensive, modular, customizable and scalable
e-commerce infrastructure platform that can support a diverse universe of merchants, products and services. It offers
a plug-and-play, modular and customizable online storefront and e-commerce gateway service for merchants
registered on the BuildaBazaar marketplace platform. We believe that the Infibeam BuildaBazaar platform service is
particularly relevant to small and medium sized merchants with limited access to cost-effective e-commerce solutions.
As of Q1FY17, BuildaBazaar has 57,482 registered merchants who are actively operating on the marketplace. We
believe that BuildaBazaar.com is a prime factor which differentiates it from other e-commerce players largely because
Infibeam provides integrated services and is a one-stop shop for merchants. Additionally, we believe that
Infibeam.com provides immense cross-selling opportunities towards BuildaBazaar.com where merchants can not only
showcase their products on a marketplace but also on their own online store. Apart from assisting in launching the
merchants on a cloud-based market place, Infibeam also provides value added services (VAS) such as payment
solutions, logistic services, sales & marketing consultancy and data centers. We believe that Infibeam’s integrated and
complete set of solutions is the major differentiating factor in the e-commerce space.
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
11 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
BuildaBazaar offers multiple plans to meet merchants’ needs
Infibeam charges it’s merchants on three levels, namely a) Set up charges, b) Registration charges c) Charges on
each transaction that occurs through the online portal. The company offers various subscription plans based on size
and requirement of the merchants. Following are the list of subscription plans:
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Silver: This is the most basic subscription plan with a subscription-cum-commission model. There is no set up
fees. The maximum number of products that may be listed is low and is aimed at merchants operating on a
small scale.
Gold: This plan includes several attractive features such as cash on delivery, international shipping, Facebook
Connect and cross selling widgets. The maximum number of products that may be listed is higher and is
aimed at merchants operating on a medium scale.
Gold Plus: This is a high-end plan with only subscription fees but no transaction commission. A large number
of products can be listed. In addition to the features available on the Gold plan, this plan offers all social plug-
ins and also offers SMS notification, advanced design widgets etc.
Platinum: This is our premium plan and comes with several advanced features such as ERP integration and
digital marketing. There is no maximum limit on the number of products that can be listed under this plan.
Features and options under this plan are customised in line with the merchant’s requirements and accordingly
a quote is provided to the client.
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
12 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Six Pillars of Growth Strategy
In order to maximize revenue and profitability, the company has formulated 6 growth strategies, i.e.
Enhance Logistics Infrastructure – The Company is on track to expand the logistic and warehouse
infrastructure to 75 centres over the next 2 – 3 fiscal years, which in turn would improve top-line performance
and margins as it will expand reach of product deliveries and reduce costs relative to outsourcing logistics.
Total Mobile 8 23 55 125 249 462 799 1,221 1,860 2,578
Other - 17 19 22 25 27 28 29 30 30
Source: Bloomberg, Company, KRChoksey Research
We hold an extremely positive view on Infibeam’s plans of entering the digital marketing space in the next four
quarters on account of robust macros. Total ad spends in India are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% between 2015
and 2020 to USD 15.8 Bn (current USD 10.1 Bn). Moreover, Ad spends on the internet is expected to grow at 35%
CAGR between 2015 to 2020 to USD 3.8 Bn (from current USD 0.8 Bn). Infibeam’s digital marketing platform will not
only hold positive spillover effects for its BuildaBazaar.com but also hold immense potential on a standalone basis in
our views.
Infibeam suitably placed in the operating model matrix Infibeam operates under a ‘managed marketplace’ model wherein the website is a listing platform for the vendor but
the logistic/product quality/ packaging is managed by the e-tailer. The advantages associated with this approach include no capital/ space tied up in inventory, higher control over quality of the product and gross margins higher than the ‘pure marketplace’ model. Moreover, with Value Added Services offered by Infibeam means that it offers a complete package of solutions for merchants. Flipkart and Amazon work under a Pure Marketplace operating model whereas Snapdeal and Jabong operate on Managed marketplace model. We also believe that as and when the company starts adding logistics and warehouses facilities, revenues will shoot up as a result of higher distribution and delivery capabilities and margins will improve vis-à-vis an outsourced logistics model.
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
14 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Expect robust growth in merchants/users on sound micro and macro related factors
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
The merchant base for Infibeam stands at 57,482 as of Q1FY17, we expect the merchant base to grow to ~1,75,000
by FY18E primarily on account of limitations of the ‘brick & mortar’ model, trend amongst small and mid-sized
merchants to ‘sell online’ and strong industry fundamentals. On these lines, we also expect Infibeam.com’s user base
to increase from 8.1 Mn currently to 10.7 Mn by FY18E.
Robust top-line momentum… Higher services revenue contribution to improve margins
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Expect Services revenue contribution to increase to 46%
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
54
87
17
50
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
FY16 FY17E FY18E
Th
ou
san
ds
No. of Merchants (BuildaBazaar.com)
8.1 9
.4 10
.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
FY16 FY17E FY18E
No. of Users (Infibeam.com) (Units Mn)
2,0
73
2,8
83
3,3
70
4,6
19
6,5
95
9,6
61
37%39%
17%
37% 43%
46%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Total Revenue(Rs Mn) Revenue Growth %
-204
-23
218296
484693
6% 6%7% 7%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%)
-260
-98
93 220 401
618
3%
5%6% 6%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Profit Net Profit Margin (%)
85
%
77
%
69
%
69
%
62
%
54
%
15
%
23
%
31
%
31
%
38
%
46
%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Product Revenue (Infibeam.com) Service Revenue (BuildaBazaar)
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
15 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
We expect Infibeam’s top-line to grow at ~42% CAGR between FY16 and FY19E to INR 9,661 Mn based on a broad range of micro and macro related factors:
Micro:
Additional revenue streams, namely:
o Digital Marketing segment expected to be rolled out by H2FY17
o Business Analytics
o Cloud platform
o Payment solutions
Improved product offerings and increase in product lines due to higher distribution capacity and last mile
connectivity
Macro:
Robust growth in the e-commerce space
Better internet access on account of Digital India and Smart Cities projects
Increase in internet penetration to 50% - 60% of population by 2020 (from current ~40%)
Higher penetration of smart-phones (expect smartphone penetration to increase to a minimum of 30% by
2020) from current 22%).
We estimate EBITDA margins to improve by 100 bps by FY19E to ~7% as contribution from services revenue, which is
a high EBITDA margin business (~55%), is estimated to increase from 31% in FY16E to 46% by FY19E. We believe
that there is immense scope for margin expansion post FY18E as the company executes it’s IPO plan of 75 logistics
and warehousing centers, thereby reducing reliance on outsourced logistics. We expect an EBITDA and Net Profit of
INR 693 Mn and INR 618 Mn respectively by FY19E.
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
16 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Macro-economic Factors
Business mix to gain scale on the back robust growth in E-commerce industry
Private consumption constitutes approximately 57% of total GDP (~$2.1 trillion in FY15) in India. Out of the total
private consumption in the economy, almost 50% is comprised of the retail segment. The size of the Indian retail
segment is expected to increase from US$ 585 billion in 2015 to US$ 2,065 billion in 2025. The retail segment
comprises of the merchandise segment and the services segment. The services segment includes food services,
beauty and health and fitness. The merchandise and services segments are expected to increase from US$ 488 billion
and US$ 37 billion in 2015 to US$1,857 billion and US$208 billion in 2025 respectively. The share of the merchandise
segment constitutes 93% of the total retail whereas services segment constituted 7% of the total retail segment in
2015. However, it is expected that the share of merchandise segment will fall to 90% in 2025 and that of the services
segment will increase to 10%.
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Infibeam, with its all round services and presence in merchandise business, is expected to ride the Indian e-commerce
growth story through and through. Going ahead, we expect the services revenues to outperform the product business,
given the highly competitive product business industry in India. We also expect factors like increase in internet access,
growth of internet users and higher penetration of smarphones to boost industry growth. Digital adoption is playing
the role of a key enabler for e-tailing’s growth in India. India’s online retail will grow from the current 0.7% of the
total retail market to 3-4% of total retail by 2020.
479968
2125
46
132
375
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
FY14 FY20 FY25
US
D $
Bn
Traditional Organized
488
1011
1857
37
89
208
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
FY14 FY20 FY25
US
D $
Bn
Merchandise Services
273495
888252
605
1177
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
FY14 FY20 FY25
US
D $
Bn
Rural Urban
FY14
$1.08 Tn
FY20
$2.36 Tn
FY25
$4.42 Tn
Private Consumption
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
17 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
As of June 2016, the wireless subscriber base stands at 1033 Mn, of which merely 371 Mn users have access to mobile
internet. Additionally, smartphone user base stands at 220 Mn in FY16, which is ~22% of the wireless telephone
connections. Number of Broadband connections (>256 kbps browsing speed) is as low as 131 Mn as of 2015.
The number of smartphone users in India is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 35% in the next 6 years. Given that 60%
of online sales are placed through smartphones and that smartphone penetration is expected to increase to 440 Mn by
2020 from 220 Mn currently, there is a huge potential for the e-tail market to grow. Consequently, we expect online
shoppers to increase from 35 Mn currently to 190 Mn by 2020.
Moreover, we expect Govt. initiatives such as Digital India and Make in India to promote internet access and internet
penetration through investments in Wi-fi hotspots, new entrants and consolidation in the telecom operator space and
increasing levels of education in the country.
Even though e-commerce is estimated to be a high growth area, we expect immense pressure in the product business
as competition increases and incumbents burn cash in the short term. In the longer term however, as the market size
grows and incumbents settle in their respective market pockets, we expect consolidation in the market to neutralize
competition and stabilize margins.
With e-commerce industry experiencing a nuclear-like boom in India since triggering the growth phase in 2007 and
limitations in the ‘brick & mortar’ model, every merchant is in the race to ‘get online’. Infibeam’s BuildaBazaar seems
to be well placed to exploit this opportunity, especially in the small to medium sized merchants category.
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
18 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Long term industry outlook:
We believe that the current situation in the E-commerce space translates into higher supply than demand, resulting in
the evidential intense competition amongst the big firms (Flipkart, Amazon, SnapDeal, etc.). In the longer term, as
the e-commerce industry expands pan-India and the market grows bigger in size, we expect the intense competition
and price wars in the E-commerce space to normalize and thereby reducing pressure on realizations.
Evolution of e-tail in India:
2000 – 2009:
o Initial high growth phase with entrance of several players in the e-commerce space
o High discounts as a % of GMV, i.e. 35-45%
o High ad spends and aggressive advertising to increase customer acquisition
o Huge Investment levels to increase market penetration
o Incumbents generally loss-making on the bottom-line due to high discounts and ad spends
o Growth rates begin to pick up
2009 – 2014:
o Average Discounting offered across players as a % of GMV was 25-35%, which is 5-10% lower than in
the previous few years.
o High ad spends continue in order to sustain customer retention
o Growth rates at colossal levels as evident in the graph below – 72% CAGR
o Incumbents continue to make losses on the bottom line as deep discounts continue in order to tackle
competition
2014 – 2022:
o Average discounts expected to come by a further 10-15% over the next few years
o Slower top-line growth rate
o Focus on bottom-line increases
o Incumbents typically start breaking even or making small profits
o Consolidation increase – High levels of M&A activity
Source: The E-tailing revolution in India report by Red Seer Consulting on www.redseerconsulting.com , Company, KRChoksey Research
As displayed in the graph above, expect e-commerce companies’ CAGR to reduce from 72% in 2009-14 to 47% in
2014-22. Eventually, we believe that the industry will continue consolidation and E-commerce players will settle in
As of FY15, Flipkart and SnapDeal were trading at an EV/GMV(Sales) multiple of ~3x/1.4x, respectively. Going
ahead, industry estimates expect Flipkart’s GMV to increase from USD 4.5 Bn to USD 8 Bn, which translates
into a lower multiple.
Although Infibeam operates at high valuations (viz Flipkart & Snapdeal), we believe that factors such as
differentiated business model, no cash burn, high cross-selling opportunities and immense potential for
BuildaBazaar.com dictate premium valuations.
International Peers:
On an average, Amazon receives an EV/Sales multiple of 0.8–0.9x FY18E Sales while Amazon Web Services
receives an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15-16x FY18E EBITDA.
We apply only a 20% discount to Amazon Web Services valuation (17x FY19E EBITDA) for Infibeam’s Services
Segment (BuildaBazaar and VAS) as we believe that domestic e-commerce market holds robust growth
potential vis-à-vis N. American market which is relatively mature.
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
20 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Valuation & Outlook:
We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 1,062. The stock
is trading at EV/Sales (x) of 8x, 5.5x and 3.7x to its FY17E, FY18E and FY19E revenues. Notably, the services segment
contributes ~31% to top-line, however we believe that this segment holds immense potential. We believe that the
Value Added Services (VAS) such as logistics, payment solutions, warehousing facilities, digital catalogue, cloud
services and analytics services offered by the company dictate the premium over its peers in the E-commerce space.
The VAS offered by the company contribute to Infibeam’s unique selling proposition. We believe that the Indian
consumer market holds a huge opportunity in the E-commerce space as it constantly evolves towards an online
marketplace. With the Government’s Digital India and Smart Cities project, we expect internet access, internet users
and smart-phone penetration to increase at tremendous pace, eventually breaking technological barriers in Tier II &
Tier III cities and Rural India. With increasing access to the internet, we expect the E-commerce market to increase
drastically, thereby expanding the market pie and incumbents’ shares.
We value Infibeam Incorporation Ltd. on SOTP based valuation methodology. Given that Infibeam is the only listed
entity in the domestic markets with no comparable peer in terms of size and offerings, we value the
product/marketplace segment on EV/Sales basis, a prevalent valuation norm for Global Marketplace players. We
assign an EV/Sales multiple of ~5x to Infibeam’s Product Segment FY19E Sales of INR 5,206 Mn to arrive
at a price target of INR 365 per share.
For the distributed marketplace or services segment, we value the segment on EV/EBITDA basis, applying an
EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x to its FY19E Services segment EBITDA of INR 3,118 Mn to arrive at a price
target of INR 697 per share and to arrive at SOTP based price target of INR 1,062.
We have also compared with global peers, i.e. Amazon Web Services, which is trading at 17x FY19E EBITDA and
Shopify, which is loss making at the EBITDA level (USD 19.2 Mn loss as of CY15), we apply only a 20% discount to
Amazon Web Services (AWS) valuation for Infibeam’s Services Segment (BuildaBazaar and VAS) as we believe that
Indian e-commerce market holds robust growth potential vis-à-vis N. American market which is relatively mature and
highly saturated.
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
21 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Annexure:
Management Team:
Management Team
Name Designation Comments
Vishal A. Mehta
Managing Director
Holds a master of engineering degree in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering from Cornell University, USA and a master of science degree in Management of Technology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA. He has over 10 years of experience in the field of IT. Prior to joining our Company, he has worked at Amazon.com Holdings Inc. and Amazon Global Resources Inc. for five years
Hiren Padhya
Chief Financial Officer
He holds a bachelor’s degree in commerce from H.L. Commerce College, Gujarat University. He is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India, the Institute of Cost Accountants of India and the Institute of Company Secretaries of India. Prior to joining our Company, he worked at Rubber King Tyres India Private Limited as its Chief Financial Officer for about a year, at Duravit India Private Limited as General Manager, Finance and Accounts, for approximately two years, at Adani Exports Limited as a Senior Manager for over a year, at Jubilant Infrastructure Limited as Financial Controller for a year
Vijayakumar Subramanian
Chief Information
Officer
He holds a bachelor’s degree in technology in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras and masters’ degrees in science and computer science from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, USA. Prior to joining our Company, he worked at Amazon.com, Inc for a period of five years and at NIGPL for a period of eight years.
Shyamal Trivedi
Company Secretary
and Compliance
Officer
He holds a master’s degree in commerce and a bachelor’s degree in law from the Gujarat University. He is a qualified company secretary and is a fellow member of the Institute of Company Secretaries of India. Prior to joining our Company, he had worked at Vivro Financial Services Private Limited and Axis Bank Limited.
Ajay Chandra
Chief Technical
Officer
He holds a master of science degree in Software Engineering from Bharathiar University, Coimbatore. He has over 12 years of experience in software development and engineering. Prior to joining our Company, he worked at Amazon Software Development Centre (Bangalore) Private Limited and Intel Technology India Private Limited.
Board of Directors
Board of Directors
Name Designation
Vishal Mehta Managing Director
Ajit Mehta Non-Executive Chairman
Malav Mehta Non-Executive Director
Roopkishan Dave Independent Director
Keyoor Bakshi Independent Director
Vijay Lakshmi Sheth Independent Director Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
22 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
Profit & Loss A/c
Profit & Loss A/c
YE December (Rs. mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Sales 2,883 3,370 4,619 6,595 9,661
Growth % 39.0% 16.9% 37.1% 42.8% 46.5%
Total Revenue 2,883 3,370 4,619 6,595 9,661
Less:
Increase/Decrease in Stock 37 115 -20 33 48
Cost of Services & Raw Materials 2,263 2,437 3,234 4,616 6,762
Employee Cost & Related Expenses 211 277 376 571 853
Miscellaneous Expenses 468 552 693 956 1,401
Total Operating Expenditure 2,906 3,151 4,323 6,111 8,968
Creditors (Days of Raw Materials) 87 127 134 124 122 Source: Company, KRChoksey research
Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.
24 KRChoksey-Institutional Research
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