Inequality, Poverty and Leftist Governments in LA Nora Lustig Social Policy in LA since the Left Turn Tulane University April 1, 2014
Feb 24, 2016
Inequality, Poverty and Leftist Governments in LA
Nora Lustig
Social Policy in LA since the Left TurnTulane University
April 1, 2014
Inequality in Last Decade 2000-2011 (Yearly changes in Gini; SEDLAC, Feb 2014 for LA)
LA Poverty Changes: Redistribution vs Growth (Lustig et al, 2014)
4
Determinants of Change in InequalityWage Gap (red); Transfers (Green); Demographic (Blue) (Azevedo et al. 2012)
www.commitmentoequity.org
6
Fiscal Policy and Political Regime Gini: Left (Green) Nonleft (Black) –CEQ Project
Market Income
Net Market Income
Disposable Income
Post-Fiscal Income
Final Income0.39
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.49
0.51
0.53
0.55
0.57
0.59
Brazil
Chile
Argentina
Uruguay
Bolivia
Colombia
Guatemala
Paraguay
Peru
Mexico
Costa Rica
7
Headcount: Before and After Cash Transfers
8
However, net Payers to the Fisc: Left Not More Pro-poor
9
And, consumption taxes offset the poverty-reducing effect of cash transfers in Brazil (and
Bolivia)
Market Income Net Market Income
Disposable Income
Post-Fiscal Income
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
28.0%
30.0%
32.0%
Brazil (2009)
Mexico (2010)
Peru (2009)
10
And, Poor Pardos in Brazil Receive Less in Cash Transfers than Equally Poor Whites
Incidence of Cash Tranfers by Race
11
Budget Size and CompositionPrimary and Social Spending as % of GDP
(Lustig, Pessino and Scott, 2014)
12
13
Argentina: Evolution of Pensions(Lustig and Pessino, 2014; this and next two slides)
20032004
20052006
20072008
2009
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
0 0 0 0.2
1.41.8
2.2
3.6 3.7 3.7 4.0
5.35.8
6.3
NCP (excluding Moratorium)MoratoriumContributoryALL