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© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Inequality and the Labour Market Some evidence and some proposals
Richard Blundell University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies
Slide Presentation
Tony Atkinson Memorial Conference LSE, February 16th 2018
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PhDgraduationSeptember2016
Remembering Tony… thanks for everything
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Theme:can’taddressexcessiveincomeinequalitythroughthetaxandwelfaresystemalone….
Sowhatisthebalanceofpolicies?
1. Howfarcan/shouldredistributiongotocompensatelowwagesandrentsinthelabourmarket?
2. Technology:alwaysbadforlowskilledworkers?Whogetstherents?
• Firstafewrelatedfacts....• Table1.1inthe≠bookisagoodplacetostart….thislinkswhathasbeen
goingoninthelabourmarkettofamilyincomeinequality.Itookthisasakeyideatoinvestigateforthisdiscussion….
Inequality and the Labour Market: What can be Done?
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2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
90-10ratio(left-handaxis)
Source: Blundell, Joyce, Norris Keiller and Ziliak (2017)
Tony’sTable1.1ontrendsinUKandUSincomeandearningsinequalityTrendsinthe90:10ratioforfamilyincomeinUK
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Top1%
shareofincome
90-10ratio(left-handaxis)
top1%share(right-handaxis)
Source: Blundell, Joyce, Norris Keiller and Ziliak (2017)
Tony’sTable1.1ontrendsinUKandUSincomeandearningsinequalityTrendsinthe90:10ratioforfamilyincomeinUKandthetop1%share
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Tony’sTable1.1ontrendsinUKandUSincomeandearningsinequalityTrendsinthe90:10ratioforincomeandformaleearnings
Notes:Includesselfemploymentincomeandselfemployedhouseholds.FamilyResourcesSurvey.Allincomemeasuresareequivalised.Source:Blundell,Joyce,NorrisKeillerandZiliak(2017)
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IntheUKtherehasbeenakeyroleforbenefitsandtax-credits:Householdincomegrowthforworkinghouseholds1994/5to2014/5
Notes:Includesselfemploymentincomeandselfemployedhouseholds.FamilyResourcesSurvey.Allincomemeasuresareequivalised.Source:Blundell,Joyce,NorrisKeillerandZiliak(2017)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Averagerealgrowth(%
)from1994to2014
Percentilepoint
Workinghouseholds’post-taxtotalincome
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Notes:Includesselfemploymentincomeandselfemployedhouseholds.FamilyResourcesSurvey.Allincomemeasuresareequivalised.Source:Blundell,Joyce,NorrisKeillerandZiliak(2017)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Averagerealgrowth(%
)from1994to2014
Percentilepoint
Workinghouseholds’post-taxtotalincome
Workinghouseholds’pre-taxpay
IntheUKtherehasbeenakeyroleforbenefitsandtax-credits:Householdincomegrowthforworkinghouseholds1994/5to2014/5
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Long run distributional impact of planned personal tax and benefit measures in the UK
Notes:Incomeismeasuredastotalnetequivalisedhouseholdincome.CalculationsusetheIFStaxandbenefitmodel.Source:TaxandBenefitPolicies,IFS(2017)
-£1,400
-£1,200
-£1,000
-£800
-£600
-£400
-£200
£0
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest All
Aver
age
chan
ge in
ann
ual n
et in
com
e
Income Decile Group
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Rises in minimum wage between now and 2020: share of uplift to net household income going to each decile
Notes:Incomeismeasuredastotalnetequivalisedhouseholdincome(bhc).CalculationsusetheIFStaxandbenefitmodel,TAXBEN,runonthe2015–16FamilyResourcesSurveyandthe2015–16LFS.Source:Cribb,JoyceandNorrisKeiller(2017)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest
Sha
re o
f mec
hani
cal n
et in
com
e in
crea
se
Incomedecile
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IndividualearningsandtheroleofhoursofworkWeeklyearningsandhourlywagegrowth,menandwomen,1994–95to2014–15
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Aver
age
annu
alis
ed re
al g
row
th (%
)
Percentile
Female weekly earnings Female hourly wages
Male weekly earnings Male hourly wages
Source: Blundell, Joyce, Norris Keiller and Ziliak (2017)
Note: assortative partnering implies this has not improved between family inequality
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Lowhoursforlowskilledmen:Proportionofmenworkinglesthan30hoursintheUKbyhourlywagequintile–aged25-55
©InstituteforFiscalStudies
Notes:LFS:Menaged25-55.Source:IFScalculationsusingLabourForceSurvey
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
%workinglessth
an30ho
ursa
week
Lowest 20%
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Percent Change in Median Real Earnings for Men and Women from 1979-2014, for US by Education
Note: assortative partnering implies this has not improved ‘between family inequality’.
−20
020
4060
Perc
ent
Male Female
Percent Change in Real Median Earnings from 1976−2014All Workers Ages 25−55
Less than High School High School OnlySome College CollegeGraduate School
Source: Blundell, Joyce, Norris Keiller and Ziliak (2017)
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Source: Blundell, Dias, Meghir and Shaw (2016), Notes: UK Women BHPS
Returns to experience are strongly complementary with education
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Source: Blundell, Dias, Meghir and Webb (2017), Notes: UK BHPS
Training is also strongly complementary with education 0
.05
.1.1
5.2
.25
prop
ortio
n tra
ining
20 30 40 50 60age
Secondary
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5
prop
ortio
n tra
ining
20 30 40 50 60age
High School
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5
prop
ortio
n tra
ining
20 30 40 50 60age
University
All training, 50+ hoursPrevalence of training over past year
Women Men
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‘Good’firmsandR&Dintensity:loghourlywagebyskillgroup
Source: Aghion, Bergeaud, Blundell and Griffith (2017)
Not all selection, some abilities of low educated are complementary with technology, they get training and the jobs are not outsourced....
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• Theme:can’taddressexcessiveincomeinequalitythroughthetaxandwelfaresystemalone.
1. Howfarcan/shouldredistributiongotocompensatelowwagesinthelabourmarket?
Ø Adepressing,butrobustfinding-littlewageprogressionforloweducated,&part-time.Employmentisnolongerenoughformovingoutofpovertyorlongerrunself-sufficiency.Femaleemploymenthasnotovercomegrowthinfamilyearningsinequality.
Ø Earnedincometaxcreditsbringinlotsoflowwagefemaleworkers,asexpected.Off-settingmeans-testingattheextensivemargin–whereincentivesarelarge.Theyboostincomesoflowearningfamiliesandarewell-targeted.Butincidenceandequilibriumeffects?Roleforminimumwage–butalonenotwell-targeted,partlyduetosecondaryworkersandfallingmalehours.RelatetoTaxableParticipationIncomeandChildBenefitwithEarnedIncomeDiscountandMinWage–Tony’sproposals.
Ø Stigma-oneofTony’stwoargumentsagainst(toomuch)means-testing.UniversalCreditintheUKcouldhavebeenasuccessbutcutcoincidentbacktherealvalueofbenefitsystem.
Ø Non-poachingagreementsareextensiveintheUS,especiallyinlow-wageandhighturn-overindustries.Policytowardanti-competitivepractises.AnotherofTony’sproposals.NoteUKtaxsystemisskewedtowardsself-employedandthegigeconomy.
Inequality and the Labour Market: What can be Done?
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• Theme:can’taddressexcessiveincomeinequalitythroughthetaxandwelfaresystemalone.
1. Howfarcan/shouldredistributiongotocompensatelowwagesinthelabourmarket?
2. Technology:alwaysbadforlowskilledworkers?Whogetstherents?Ø ‘R&Dintensivefirmspayallworkersbetter–eventhelowereducated.
Ø Whatskillsdowellamongloweducatedarevaluedbygoodfirms?Whatskillscomplementinnovation?–ifmorevaluable,strongerbargainingposition,lesslikelytobeout-sourced.Itseemsreliabilityandothernon-cognitiveskills.Incentivisetechnology(andskills)thathelpatthebottom–oneofTony’sproposals.
Ø Whatabouttechnologyandtopearners?Innovationsaccountforaround20%oftop1%incomes(inUS).Butmaybeincreasinglyonthewrongsideofthe“invertedU”?–whereincumbentsfacetoolittlecompetitionandslowdowninnovation,growthandsocialmobility.Thegoodfirmshavehighrentstoo.Needcompetitionpolicytocomplementtaxpolicy–aTonyproposal.
Ø Can’taddressexcessiveincomeinequalitythroughthetaxandwelfaresystemalone!
Inequality and the Labour Market: What can be Done?