Industry 4.0 - Opportunities and Challenges for the Caribbean “We stand on the brink of technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work and relate to one another. In its scale, scope and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before.” Klaus Schwab Founder & Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
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Industry 4.0 - OpportunitiesandChallengesfortheCaribbean
“Westandonthebrinkoftechnologicalrevolutionthatwillfundamentallyalterthewaywelive,workandrelatetooneanother.Initsscale,scopeandcomplexity,thetransformationwillbeunlikeanythinghumankindhasexperiencedbefore.”KlausSchwabFounder&ExecutiveChairman,WorldEconomicForum
Cheaper, faster, better, democratic, decentralized
Industriesthathavealreadybeendisrupted:• Media–TV,radio,music,newspapers,advertising
(youtube,spotify,itunes,twitter,googleads,facebook)
• Transportation(zipcar,uber,lyftàsoon:autonomousvehicles)
• Employment(LinkedIn,Fiverr,Upwork,Facebook)• University(Udacity)• Accomodation(Airbnb)• Retail(Amazon,Etsy)• Movietheatres(Netflix,Amazon)
Caribbean 4.0
Industriesthatwillbefurtherdisrupted,ofimportancetotheCaribbean:
• Tourism-AR/VR/gamification,robotics• Financialservices-blockchain,fintech• Music-blockchainforIP,AI• Agriculture-bigdata,AI,robotics,IOT,geneediting,blockchain
• BusinessProcessOutsourcing-AI• Construction-BIM,3Dprinting• Retail,somecreativeindustries-3Dprinting• Logistics-robotics,IOT• Energy-blockchain
Caribbean 4.0
Solutionofpublicproblems:• Deliveryofpublicservices-cloudcomputing,AI,VR,AR
• Congestion-satellites,IOT,AI• Crime-remotesensing,facialrecognition,AI• Healthservices-AI,geneediting• Education-AR/VR,gamification
Implications
• Adaptfast–orbedisrupted:capacitytoabsorb,use,recombinethesetechnologiestoinventnewproducts/applicationsthatcanenhancethecompetitivenessofexistingandfutureindustries
• Connectivity:requiresuniversalaccess,largerbandwidthsà5G,aswellasaccess/affordableservices
• Talent:requiresmorequantity,pervasiveskillsatalllevels
Internet Users, 2008 - 2016 (as % of total population)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
2000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CARIBBEAN OECD
Getting Tech ready
In10yearstime,60%ofjobswillbecompletelynewandbasedonICTinfrastructure–countriesintheregionneedtogetreadyby:
• Buildingandimprovinguponexistinginfrastructure• Increasinginternetpenetration• Facilitatingtechnologytransferinawiderangeofsectors,fromtourismtomanufacturing
• Increasingeducationandtrainingintheuseoftechnologies,especiallyintheareaofcybersecurity
• Encouraginginvestmentanddigitaltechnologyadoptioninfirms• MovingtowardsLegislativeFrameworksforDigitalIdentity,harmonizedpolicyforuseofdigitaldata(attheregionallevel)
Hythe, Maxwell Main Road Christ Church, Barbados.
Tel: 1. 246. 627. 8500 • Fax: 1 .246. 429. 8869 Email: [email protected]
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Caribbean 4.0 Potential Disruptors
• Blockchaintechnologycanbenefittheagriculturalsectorandexportsthroughproductcertification(origin,quality,authenticity),thusincreasingvaluefornichemarketproductssuchascocoa.[Example–EYWineBlockchainsolution]
• VirtualTourism–VRasamarketingplatforminthetourismspace,aswellasincomegenerationforlocalVRdevelopers[Example-https://www.dingole.com/projects/]
• GlobalServicesSector-MorejobstobecreatedinICTandotherhighvalueareas(computerprogrammers,coders,appdevelopers;dataanalysts;socialmediastrategists;datascientists)thatcanbeprovidedtocompaniesabroad[Examples-https://technewstt.com/pr-animation-scores/;http://www.fullcircleanimation.com/showreel/]
• Satellitebasedgeo-positioningsystemsandsensorscollectingbigdatatodetectnutrientsandwaterinsoil,aswellastheuseofdataappliedtopredictionstoincreasecropyields,leadingtolessfoodimportsandincreasedexports
Potential Disruptors Cont’d
• Dataandmachinelearningcanbeusedtopredictcrimesandpreventthembyidentifyingunderlyingcorrelationsandcauses.Thiscanbedoneusingcrime-mappingplatforms;smartlights;facialrecognitionsoftwareandCCTVsthatcoverblindspotsandusehighqualityimagery;onlinestorageandmanagementofsurveillancedataetc.
• ArtificialIntelligencecanbeutilizedtomanageGovernmentprocessessuchastaxmanagement,predictingnaturaldisastersandaidinginrescueefforts,auditingefficiency,etc.
Most existing jobs will disappear in 20 years! Implications for the Caribbean
• Jobswillbereplacedbycomputerandmachinelearning
• Almostallfieldofworkwillbeaffected,fromcashieringtoaccounting.
• Jobstobereplaced(almost)totallybytechnologyinthenearterm(next10-15years)–Cashiers,call-centres;manufacturingandassemblyplantworkers;drivers,constructionworkers,farmers;securityworkers;tellers
• Jobstobedisplacedinthelongerterm(25-50years)–Legalassistants;lawyers;accountants;landSurveyors;FinanceAssistance;amongothers.
However,estimatesof%ofexistingworkforceatriskduetoemergingtechvarywidely
• FreyandOsborne(2013)–47%ofjobscouldbeeliminatedbysmarttechwithin20years
• McKinsey&Co.(2017)–49%ofthetimewespendworkingcouldbeeliminatedbycurrenttech
• PwC(2017)WorkforceoftheFuture–37%ofrespondentsconcernedaboutautomationputtingjobsatrisk
Moremoderateanalystsexpecttheanumberofasyetunforeseenopportunitiestosamethingtocomeabout,attheconvergenceof“STEMpathy”work(wherethetechnicalskillsofscience,technology,engineering,andmathmeetthehumanisticskillsofempathyandconnection)èImpossibletopredictwhere
ICT Trends
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