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Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. Krause Fund Research Fall 2020 Industrials and Materials Recommendation: BUY Analysts Jack Tucker [email protected] Chandler Bruce [email protected] Davis Deboom [email protected] Company Overview Lockheed Martin (LMT) is an industry leading Aerospace and Defense contractor operating in Aeronautics, Missile and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space segments. Founded in 1995 after a merger between the Lockheed and Martin Marietta Corporations, Lockheed Martin has since gone on to become one of the largest defense companies in the world. Stock Performance Highlights 52 week High $442.53 52 week Low $266.11 Beta Value 0.98 Average Daily Volume (90 day) 451.3 m Share Highlights Market Capitalization $105.5 b Shares Outstanding 280 m EPS (2019) $22 P/E Ratio 17.7 Dividend Yield 2.4% Dividend Payout Ratio 40.74% Company Performance Highlights ROA 17.98% ROIC 32.93% Sales $59.81 b Financial Ratios Current Ratio 1.22 Quick Ratio .96 Total Asset Turnover 1.26 One Year Stock Performance: Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) November 17, 2020 Current Price $377.13 Target Price $450-460 LMT Investment Thesis We recommend a BUY rating for LMT because our model suggests the current price of the stock undervalues the company. The reason for this undervaluation could be due to any number of reasons, but most likely it is a slight overreaction to the risks COVID-19 puts on the market. Historically, the aerospace and defense industry has proven resistant to short-term market events due to the long-term nature of their contracts, as well as predictable defense spending by the government. Drivers of Thesis: x Defense spending does not dramatically differ between Democratic and Republican administrations. In 2020, President Trump requested $6 billion less on defense spending than what was approved in a bipartisan agreement between the House and Senate. The congressional Budget Office (CBO) recommends steady real growth in spending between 3-5%. 1 x Defense spending at its current percentage of GDP is sustainable and has room for growth should new conflicts arise. As a percentage of GDP, defense spending is currently just over 3%, below the average of 4% in the Bush and Obama administrations. 1 Risks to Thesis: x With a Joe Biden administration the most likely outcome for 2021, there is a risk he may opt to decrease military investment expenditures. Beginning in President Obama’s second term in which Biden was vice president, National Defense consumption and gross investment declined by 11.08% over 4 years. If Biden takes a similar approach, Lockheed Martin could see a decline in revenues. 2 x Lockheed Martin’s signature product, the F-35 fighter jet, has a growing number of unaddressed design flaws. Documents obtained by the project on government oversight show that there are currently 162 design issues with the jet that have no plans of being addressed. Lockheed Martin expects that revenues from F-35 contracts will be their fastest growing revenue stream in the years ahead. 3 1
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Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Jan 27, 2022

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Page 1: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

Krause Fund Research Fall 2020 Industrials and Materials Recommendation: BUY Analysts Jack Tucker [email protected]

Chandler Bruce [email protected]

Davis Deboom [email protected]

Company Overview Lockheed Martin (LMT) is an industry leading Aerospace and Defense contractor operating in Aeronautics, Missile and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space segments. Founded in 1995 after a merger between the Lockheed and Martin Marietta Corporations, Lockheed Martin has since gone on to become one of the largest defense companies in the world. Stock Performance Highlights 52 week High $442.53 52 week Low $266.11 Beta Value 0.98 Average Daily Volume (90 day) 451.3 m Share Highlights Market Capitalization $105.5 b Shares Outstanding 280 m EPS (2019) $22 P/E Ratio 17.7 Dividend Yield 2.4% Dividend Payout Ratio 40.74% Company Performance Highlights ROA 17.98% ROIC 32.93% Sales $59.81 b Financial Ratios Current Ratio 1.22 Quick Ratio .96 Total Asset Turnover 1.26 One Year Stock Performance:

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

November 17, 2020

Current Price $377.13 Target Price $450-460

LMT Investment Thesis

We recommend a BUY rating for LMT because our model suggests the current price of the stock undervalues the company. The reason for this undervaluation could be due to any number of reasons, but most likely it is a slight overreaction to the risks COVID-19 puts on the market. Historically, the aerospace and defense industry has proven resistant to short-term market events due to the long-term nature of their contracts, as well as predictable defense spending by the government. Drivers of Thesis: Defense spending does not dramatically differ between

Democratic and Republican administrations. In 2020, President Trump requested $6 billion less on defense spending than what was approved in a bipartisan agreement between the House and Senate. The congressional Budget Office (CBO) recommends steady real growth in spending between 3-5%.1 Defense spending at its current percentage of GDP is

sustainable and has room for growth should new conflicts arise. As a percentage of GDP, defense spending is currently just over 3%, below the average of 4% in the Bush and Obama administrations.1

Risks to Thesis: With a Joe Biden administration the most likely outcome

for 2021, there is a risk he may opt to decrease military investment expenditures. Beginning in President Obama’s second term in which Biden was vice president, National Defense consumption and gross investment declined by 11.08% over 4 years. If Biden takes a similar approach, Lockheed Martin could see a decline in revenues.2 Lockheed Martin’s signature product, the F-35 fighter

jet, has a growing number of unaddressed design flaws. Documents obtained by the project on government oversight show that there are currently 162 design issues with the jet that have no plans of being addressed. Lockheed Martin expects that revenues from F-35 contracts will be their fastest growing revenue stream in the years ahead.3

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:

Defense Spending:

Defense spending is currently the second largest

budgetary item for the United States following

Social Security. This is the most important

economic metric for companies in the aerospace

and defense industry since a majority of these

company’s revenues are derived from defense

contracts (70% and 71% for Lockheed Martin in

2018-19). The Department of Defense and the

Congressional Budget Office recommend real

defense budget growth of 3-5% every year in

order to meet policy goals1. However, the

COVID-19 pandemic has drastically accelerated

growth in the national deficit and budget cuts will

eventually take a toll on all aspects of government

spending, likely starting with defense spending.

The deficit for the fiscal year ended September

2020 was a record 3.1 trillion4. As a response,

former defense secretary Mark Esper estimates

that the 2022 budget will include a 5% cut to

defense spending. This cut would not have as

severe a consequence as the budget cuts of 2012-

13 had on the defense industry, because the

defense department has made a commitment to

plan for them this time around. In 2012-13, the

defense department refused to plan for the cuts

under the justification that planning for them

would make them more likely to occur.4

Real GDP:

With the defense budget being closely linked to

real GDP, roughly 3%, growth in real GDP is an

important indicator for the defense contractors

such as Lockheed Martin. Due to the pandemic,

Real GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by nearly

6% according to the Congressional Budget Office.

GDP is not expected to return to its

“prepandemic” level until halfway through the

year 2022. While there appears to be optimism for

the pandemic to be concluded by summer 2021,

the damage already done will have effects that last

through the decade. Uncertainties remain

regarding how the drop in Real GDP will affect

businesses in the aerospace and defense industry,

it is likely there will be some form of decline in

revenues, or profits.5

(Source: Congressional Budget Office)

Producer Price Index:

The bureau of Labor Statistics defines the

producer price index as “a measurement for the

average change in prices received by producers

for their inputs.”7 Prices included in the PPI are

often the first commercial transactions for many

products and services. Over the course of the

pandemic the producer price index for total

manufacturing industries has remained steady,

experience a decline of only -1.48%.6 In an

economic environment where businesses are

struggling for cash, it makes sense that the prices

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producers pay for their inputs should drop to meet

the new demand.

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

The PPI for commodities used in the production

of aerospace and defense contracts such as steel,

aluminum, and crude oil have all experienced

similar declines in the index. If COVID-19

continues to have contracting effects on the

economy, it is likely that the index will continue

to have a marginal decline. This would imply

possibly lower operating costs which could result

in higher profits or be offset by a slowing growth

in revenues.

Federal Funds Rate:

The Covid-19 pandemic has created an economic

environment that is incredibly sensitive to the

changes in interest rates. As a response to the

economic hardships many companies are

experiencing, the federal reserve has adapted their

policy to create a near-zero interest rate

environment. Interest rates have a large effect on

the cost of capital for a company. The Aerospace

and defense industry is very capital intensive due

to the high costs of research and development, as

well as the inputs that go into products. Because

the economic effects of COVID-19 are likely to

last well into the next decade, it is likely that the

federal reserve will keep interest rates low to

stimulate lending and economic growth. However,

there are some concerns that if the national deficit

continues to grow at its current pace, with little to

no economic growth, it will become

unsustainable. In this scenario interest rates could

need to be raised to service the cost of the national

debt.

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

Industrial Production:

The Industrial Price Index (IPI) is an economic

indicator developed by the Federal Reserve Board

(FRB) used to measure real monthly outputs of

United States based manufacturing, mining,

electric and gas industries. Production levels are

indexed according to a base year, with data

sourced from reports of actual inputs and outputs,

as well as hours logged by production workers

when input/output information is unavailable.

When the pandemic began in late February

Industrial production in the United States fell by

-16.5% through March and has since risen by

13.08%. These figures indicate that production

has still not returned to “pre-pandemic” levels,

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and growth in recent months show it may be some

time before they do.

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

Capital Markets Outlook:

2020 has been a wildly volatile year for capital

markets across the globe. The covid-19 pandemic

and the ensuing lockdowns have created immense

challenges for companies of all sizes. Similar to

real GDP, we estimate that it may not be until

midway through 2022 that capital markets return

to a normal growth state. In the interim we expect

above average volatility as a result of upcoming

economic stimulus negotiations, as well as the

likely renegotiation of trade talks with China

under a new Biden administration. With this being

said, we expect the Aerospace and Defense

industry to be more stable than the broader market

because of the long-term nature of government

contracts and predictable defense budgeting.

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS:

Aerospace and Defense Overview:

The Aerospace and Defense industry consists of

companies that design, develop and manufacture

civil/military aircraft, space vehicles and products,

as well as defense equipment, parts, and products.

The industry consists of products that are

categorized into five main segments: commercial

and general aviation, military aircraft, space

systems, ground defense, and ship building.8

Revenue from this industry is primarily driven by

government contracts awarded by the Department

of Defense. The commercial side of this industry

is cyclical and extremely sensitive to macro-

economic trends. For example, commercial

airlines were some of the hardest hit companies

when the pandemic disrupted economic activity.

On the other hand, the defense industry is more

resilient to short-term economic trends due to the

long-term nature of government contracts.

Markets and Competition:

Porter’s Five Forces

Competition: There is a moderate level of

competition in the Aerospace and Defense

industry. Large firms like Lockheed Martin,

Northrop Grumman, Boeing, Raytheon, GE

Aviation, and General Dynamics bid against each

other for long-term government manufacturing

contracts. Because of the long-term length and

high costs associated with the contracts, firms

must bid far in advance to ensure steady future

cash flows.

Bargaining Power of Customers: There is high

Bargaining Power for Customers. The Pentagon is

the largest customer in the Aerospace and Defense

industry. Under the Trump administration, the

Pentagon’s budget increased from $670 billion to

$712 billion in 2020, an increase of 6.27%9. The

massive budget of the Pentagon creates leverage

over firms in the Aerospace and Defense industry,

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causing them to undercut each-others bids

whenever possible.

Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Suppliers have

low to moderate bargaining power in the Industry.

Because the pentagon is the largest buyer in the

industry, firms must try to match their costs to the

national defense budget. However, because the

industry is comprised mostly of large contractors,

they can together shape the prices of the products.

As seen in the graph below, a handful of major

firms control the overall market and set the

market standard for prices in the industry.

(Source: Statista)

Threat of Substitution: Medium threat of

substitution in the industry. Many major contracts

span the length of several years, restricting the

ability of buyers to switch producers. However,

the size and scope of the national defense budget

means there are always smaller contracts up for

bid which smaller producers fight over. The

process purchasers undergo in the industry is

similar to a “waterfall-phased lifecycle”.10 If a

company were to opt-out of a contract in favor of

a substitute for whatever reason, they would lose a

sizeable portion of the purchase price from the

fixed costs. Additionally, major contractors face a

variety of risks ranging from international supply

chain management, capacity to innovate, exposure

to cybersecurity events, and many more. Failure

to address these appropriately can cause the threat

of substitution to increase for future bids10.

(Source: NC State University, Robert Handfield)

Threat of New Entry: The threat of new entrants

into the industry is low. It takes a substantial

amount of capital and resources to develop

aerospace and defense equipment. Most new

startups will not be able meet the capacity and

capital demands of most Aerospace and Defense

contracts. Large firms also have to ability to

outbid smaller entrants to keep competition at a

stable level. This is a large component of why

M&A activity in the industry is so high compared

to that of other sectors.

Catalysts for Growth:

The global demand for defense equipment is

rising. Most developed countries want to

modernize due to global security concerns

regarding cybersecurity, terrorism, and national

defense. Global defense spending is expected to

rise throughout the next five years due to

companies continually upgrading their products

and developing countries replacing old equipment

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with modern products. Global defense spending is

estimated to grow at a compound annual growth

rate of 3%11. While defense spending does face

the risk of budget cuts in the domestically, the

demand for products abroad is expected to

continue rising over the next five years.

Another avenue for growth in the industry is

being spurred by rising innovation in space-based

technologies and services. In the most recent 2021

budget, the new space force branch of the United

States military was awarded $15.4 billion12,

highlighting the surging interest in the products

and services. While most of the investment in the

area is towards projects in the proof-of-concept

phase, it is a segment that is expected to grow

over the next ten years.

COMPANY OVERVIEW:

Lockheed Martin was formed by the merger of

Lockheed Corporation with Martin Marietta in

1995. It is a leading global security and aerospace

company operating in 4 segments: aeronautics,

missiles and fire control (MFC), rotary and

mission systems (RMS), and space. Lockheed has

over 375 facilities globally and operates in every

state of the U.S. (headquartered in Bethesda,

MD). Lockheed’s mission is to be the global

leader in supporting customers’ missions,

advancing scientific discovery, and helping

customers keep people safe. They do so by being

engaged in the research, design, development,

manufacture and integration of advanced

technology systems, products and services.

Lockheed does a majority of its business with the

U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. federal

government agencies providing military and

rotary-wing aircraft to all five branches of the

U.S. armed forces.13

LMT Factset 14

Aeronautics

Aeronautics is engaged in the research design

development, manufacturing, integration,

sustainment, and support and upgrade of advanced

military aircraft.16 Aeronautics generated net sales

of $23.7 Billion in 2019. This number has grown

by an average of 10.1% annually since 2017. This

is LMT’s biggest segment and accounts for 40%

of their total consolidated net sales.14 The product

driving most of their revenue in this segment is

the F-35 which accounts 69% of aeronautics net

sales, and 27% of LMT’s total consolidated net

sales.16 This shows LMT’s dependence on the

continuance of F-35 production. LMT is also

highly dependent on the US government for sales

across all four of their business segments. LMT’s

customer breakdown in this segment is as follows:

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U.S. Government – 62%, International

Governments – 37%, and US Commercial and

other – 1%.16

Missiles and Fire Control (MFC)

MFC provides air and missile defense systems,

tactical missiles and air to ground precision strike

weapons, logistics, fire control systems, mission

operations support readiness and integration

services, manned and unmanned ground vehicles,

and energy management solutions. It also

contracts for classified programs for the U.S.

Government.16 MFC generated net sales of $10.1

Billion in 2019 growing by an average of 15.4%

annually since 2017.14 MFC’s sales account for

17% of LMT’s total consolidated net sales. Some

of MFC’s major product programs include the

Apache, Patriot advanced capability 3 (PAC-3),

Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and

Hypersonic Programs. The U.S. Government

accounts for 75% of sales in this segment. This is

followed by International Governments

accounting for 24%, and US Commercial and

Other accounting for 1%.16

Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS)

RMS Provides design, manufacture, service and

support for a variety of military and commercial

helicopters, ship and submarine mission and

combat systems, mission systems and sensors for

rotary and fixed wing aircraft, sea and land-based

missile defense systems, radar systems, littoral

combat ship (LCS), simulation and training

services, and unmanned systems and

technology.16 RMS generated net sales of $15.1

Billion in 2019. This number has grown by an

average of 4% since 2017. Sales generated by the

RMS segment account for 25% of total

consolidated net sales for LMT. 14 Some of

RMS’s major product programs in this segment

include the Blackhawk and Seahawk helicopters,

CH-53K King Stallion Helicopter, the Aegis

Combat System, and the VH-92A helicopter.

Sikorsky helicopter programs are a main driver of

revenue in this segment and the overall company.

They accounted for 9% of LMT’s net sales for

2019. The U.S. Government represents 72% of

sales in this segment. International Governments

represent 25%, and U.S. Commercial and Other

represent the remaining 3% of RMS’s net sales.16

Space

Space is engaged in the research, design,

development, engineering and production of

satellites, space transportation systems, and

strategic, advanced strike, and defensive systems.

It provides network-enabled situational awareness

and integrates complex space and ground global

systems to help with intelligence data.16 Space

generated net sales of $10.9 Billion in 2019 and

accounted for 18% of LMT’s total net sales. Their

net sales in this segment have grown by an

average of 5% annually since 2017.14 Some of

Space’s major product programs include: The

Trident II D5 Fleet Ballistic Missile System

(FBM), Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS),

and the Orion Multi-Purpose crew vehicle (Orion)

which is used by NASA. Space satellites have

been a major part of LMT’s overall sales

accounting for 11% of net sales in 2019. The U.S.

Government is a major consumer in this segment

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accounting for 86% of sales. International

Government sales accounted for the remaining

14%.16

Lockheed Martin 10-K16

Backlog

Backlog is an important aspect of Defense

companies as it is a strong indicator of contracted

future sales. Since aircrafts are such a main

component of LMT, it is important to keep a

steady backlog and maintain production of these

products. As of December 31st, 2019, they had a

total backlog of 374 aircrafts. Lockheed reported

that they had a total backlog of $144 Billion in

2019 growing from $130.5 Billion in 2018.

Lockheed plans on recognizing 39% of this

through 2020 and the remaining 61% of this

through 2021.16 This is promising as it shows that

that will have steady production through all of

2021.

Lockheed Martin’s 10-k16

Risk Factors

While LMT has proven to have continued growth

in revenue and earnings, they still face many risks

which could result in negative impacts on their

operations. One risk to note is COVID-19 and the

continued government spending on relief. With

such large spending on things like the CARES

act; it leads to a larger budget deficit which could

in turn lead to cuts from the government on

defense spending. Another thing to note would be

the new Biden Administration in January. The

President has a high influence on overall budget

and defense spending. While keeping historical

democratic policies in mind, Biden will likely

decrease defense spending which will face the

aerospace and defense industry with issues. Since

LMT has a high dependence on Government

spending this could have a negative impact on the

company. Lastly, an important thing to note

would be geopolitical risks. An example of this

would-be Turkey’s removal from the F-35

program. Being that Turkey was one of eight

international partners on the program, this will

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have a negative impact on sales. Turkey

previously had committed to purchase up to 100

F-35 aircrafts.16

SWOT

Strengths

Lockheed Martin largest strength is its ties to the

Pentagon. The U.S. Government accounted for

nearly 70% of Lockheed Martin’s revenues for the

year 2019.16 This relationship provides Lockheed

Martin with stable revenue growth despite

uncertain market conditions or recessions. The

budget for defense is the most important metric

for analyzing future revenue growth and neither

political party has shown an overt desire to

significantly decrease the budget. Republican

administrations tend to increase the defense

budget at faster rates than democrats, but the

national security concerns associated with the

industry incentivize both parties to keep it at

steady levels.

Weaknesses

The F-35 program, which accounts for nearly

27% of Lockheed Martin’s total net sales, is

expected to represent a higher portion of the

company’s sales in the future.16 This puts more

emphasis on the current challenges of the program

such as supplier and partner performance,

software development, the availability and receipt

of funding for production contracts on a timely

basis, execution of future flight tests and findings

resulting from testing and operating the aircraft,

the level of cost associated with life-cycle

operations and sustainment and warranties,

continuing to reduce the unit production costs,

and achieving cost targets. Any significant issues

among these variables and Lockheed could be

exposed to larger downside risk than it faces with

its current sales mix.

Opportunities

Lockheed Martin is currently exploring the

opportunity for larger international production

contracts for their F-16 Block 70 aircraft. The

aircraft is seeing a significant increase in demand

and the countries of Bahrain, Slovakia, and

Bulgaria have all placed production orders for the

delivery of these aircraft. In addition, the U.S.

State Department approved the sale of 25 aircraft

to Morocco.16 The increase in demand for the

aircraft will present Lockheed Martin with more

international opportunities on the coming years.

Threats

Lockheed Martin is not certain they can protect

their intellectual property and software from cyber

security incidents. In the annual report, Lockheed

Martin emphasizes, “Our efforts to minimize the

likelihood and impact of adverse cybersecurity

incidents and to protect data and intellectual

property may not be successful and our business

could be negatively affected by cyber or other

security threats or other disruptions”.16 The

company faces frequent cybersecurity threats such

as Distributed-Denial-of-Service attacks, attempts

to gain access to sensitive information, and insider

threats. The company takes a variety of

precautions to protect their systems and data but

due to the ever-changing nature of the threat their

efforts are not guaranteed to protect their systems

and data. Another issue for Lockheed Martin is

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their F-35 program. In February, a document from

the Joint Strike Fighter Program Office’s

Deficiency Report Metrics showed 883 design

flaws and over 160 of them have no plan for

correction.15 The contractors are claiming no

problem exists which means there will not be

changes until the government pays for them.

Lockheed Martin faces challenges ahead with the

F-35 being one of their biggest contracts for the

company.

VALUATION:

Revenue Decomposition:

The revenue decomposition for Lockheed Martin

was broken down into 4 business segments:

Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary

and Mission Systems, and Space. Growth for

each of these segments was forecasted

individually based on information from the annual

reports and the short-term budget outlook for the

United States. The Aeronautics and Space

segments were forecasted to have the largest

growth rates because of recent years trends and

long-term term prospects.

According to the 2019 annual report, Lockheed

Martin expects product and service growth to

account for a growing percentage of the

company’s revenue growth. The space segment is

also expected to continue a similar growth

trajectory compared to the other segments as it

has in years past.

Because the US defense budget is expected to be

cut in the near-term, growth rates had to be

adjusted to lower levels while still maintaining the

percent of total trend from years past in our

model. A weighted average was taken to

determine the average growth rate for each year

and was then used to project future sales revenues.

Key Income Statement and Balance Sheet

Assumptions:

Expenses:

Expenses were forecast as a ten-year historical

average percent of sales. We do not anticipate any

unexpected declines in COGS as a percent of

sales so it was determined a ten-year average

would be the best approach to estimating these

costs. For the depreciation and amortization

costs, we had to manually back these costs out

ourselves because they were unlisted on the

income statement. To do this we found the

historical depreciation and amortization expense

from the changes in accumulated depreciation and

intangible assets on the balance sheet, then took

an average percent change to apply to future

expense accounts. We found an average of 2.42%

depreciation rate and 6.09% amortization rate on

relevant balance sheet accounts.

To calculate Income Tax, we used the average

effective tax rate of 2018 and 2019 (since the

change in the federal corporate tax rate).

Shares Outstanding and Dividends:

Lockheed Martin ended its employee stock option

program in 2012, but it still has 1,793,625 options

outstanding, with an average maturity of 2.08

years and exercise price of $79.76. This results in

a valuation exceeding 500 million that will need

to flow into the share change worksheet over the

next 2.08 years. These options are expected to

increase the common stock account by 6.89

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million per full year, while treasury stock

repurchases of $1747 (ten-year average) are

expected to continue.

We forecast the dividends in this model by taking

a ten-year average payout ratio then multiplying

this by the number of shares outstanding.

Common Balance Sheet Items:

Most common balance sheet items were forecast

as a percent of sales or assets. Gross PPE was

forecasted by once again using 2019’s capital

expenditures, then growing this amount by the

average growth rate of revenues. Accumulated

depreciation was projected using the previous

forecasted depreciation expense accounts; the two

were then used to determine net PPE.

Long-term debt and current maturities of Long-

term debt were taken using a historical average of

Long-term debt to assets then multiplied by the

forecasted years amount of assets.

DCF and Economic Profit Model:

The backbone of our valuation model was based

on the discounted cash flow and economic profit

analysis. Based on Free Cash Flows estimated by

our NOPLAT and Invested Capital drivers, we

found Lockheed Martin to have an implied price

of $472.51. This price is 25.29% higher than

where the stock currently trades today, but not far

off from the 52 week high of $442.53. The reason

for this valuation to be more than what the actual

price is today can be for several reasons stemming

from a market overreaction to the pandemic, or

uncertainty over future budget cuts to the

Department of Defense. On a fundamental basis

Lockheed Martin’s financial position implies it is

currently undervalued in the market.

Dividend Discount Model:

Based on our dividend discount model, Lockheed

Martin’s implied price today is $459.54. This

valuation is very similar to the discounted cash

flow valuation. The assumptions used in this

model were a CV growth of EPS at 1.76%, a CV

year ROE of 66.03%, and a cost of equity of

6.06%. Using estimated earnings per share as our

cash flows, we found a future stock price of

$534.77 that when discounted by the cost of

equity turned out to be $459.54.

WACC:

To find the weighted average cost of capital we

began by finding the cost of equity. We used the

yield of a ten year U.S. T-bond as our risk free

rate (.88%), a 2 year monthly beta of .98, and

Answath damodaran’s equity risk premium

estimate of 5.29% to calculate a cost of equity at

6.06%. Then using the YTM on a 2050 LTM

corporate bond times 1-effective tax rate for the

firm, we found an after tax cost of debt at 2.35%.

These inputs were used to find a WACC value of

5.67%.

Relative Valuation:

In our relative valuation model we used eleven

different publicly traded firms operating in the

aerospace and defense sector. Using EPS data and

estimates for these firms we found average P/E

multiples of 25.34 and 22.73, that when

multiplied by Lockheed Martin’s EPS gave the

11

Page 12: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

following valuations. A PEG multiple was also

calculated, but 6 firms had to be excluded from

these calculations because their multiples were

too extreme for an accurate measurement.

We chose to include as many comparable

companies as we could to ensure that the

valuation estimate would be as accurate as

possible. Some of these companies focus on

different segments that LMT, but there is enough

overlap to justify including them in the model.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:

WACC and CV Growth of NOPLAT:

The weighted average cost of capital and

continuing value growth of NOPLAT are

components used in determining the DCF and

economic profit valuation. When calculating

continuing value, the CV year cash flow is

multiplied by 1-CV growth of NOPLAT/CV year

ROIC which is then divided by the WACC-CV

growth of NOPLAT. Slight changes in either of

these percentages can cause a lot of variation in

the valuation process. As the cost of capital

decreases, the CV growth results in a higher

valuation. On the other hand, if the cost of capital

increases, there needs to be a proportionate match

in NOPLAT growth to maintain the valuation.

472.51$ 5.50% 5.55% 5.60% 5.65% 5.70% 5.75% 5.80%2.09% 464.38 455.75 447.37 439.23 431.32 423.62 416.122.19% 477.25 468.19 459.39 450.85 442.55 434.48 426.642.29% 490.92 481.38 472.13 463.15 454.44 445.98 437.762.39% 505.48 495.41 485.66 476.21 467.05 458.15 449.522.49% 521.00 510.36 500.07 490.10 480.44 471.08 462.002.59% 537.59 526.32 515.43 504.89 494.70 484.82 475.262.69% 555.36 543.40 531.85 520.69 509.90 499.46 489.36

WACC

CV

Gro

wth

of

NO

PLA

T

WACC and CV Year ROIC:

This table examines the relationship between the

cost of capital and the return on invested capital

generated by Lockheed Martin in the CV year.

While the return on invested capital well exceeds

the return on capital demanded by the WACC, it

is still interesting to see the change in valuation

stemming from slight changes in the inputs. If the

WACC were to increase by just .15%, the

valuation would decrease by 5.6% as a response.

These two variables do a good job demonstrating

the consequences firms face if they do not meet

their specific cost of capital requirements.

472.51$ 5.50% 5.55% 5.60% 5.65% 5.70% 5.75% 5.80%19.47% 492.99 483.15 473.62 464.38 455.42 446.73 438.2920.47% 496.65 486.75 477.15 467.85 458.83 450.08 441.5921.47% 499.98 490.01 480.36 471.00 461.92 453.12 444.5722.47% 503.00 492.98 483.28 473.87 464.74 455.89 447.3023.47% 505.77 495.70 485.95 476.49 467.32 458.42 449.7924.47% 508.32 498.20 488.40 478.90 469.69 460.75 452.0725.47% 510.66 500.50 490.66 481.12 471.87 462.89 454.18

WACC

CV

yea

rR

OIC

CV growth of NOPLAT and Cost of Equity:

The relationship between the continuing value

growth of NOPLAT and the cost of equity can be

examined in the Discounted Cash Flow and

Economic Profit valuation model. The CV growth

is used to find the continuing value of the

economic profit. After the intrinsic value is found

as of the last FYE, the cost of equity is used to

Implied Relative Value:P/E (EPS20) $ 504.99P/E (EPS21) $ 461.80PEG (EPS20) $ 377.13

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Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

find the implied price as of today. As can be seen

in the table, slight changes to either variable can

have large effects on the implied price as of today.

472.51$ 2.09% 2.19% 2.29% 2.39% 2.49% 2.59% 2.69%4.62% 430.7548 442.0748 454.0646 466.7855 480.3065 494.7055 510.07095.12% 432.5906 443.9589 455.9998 468.775 482.3536 496.8139 512.24485.62% 434.4253 445.8418 457.9338 470.7631 484.3993 498.921 514.41736.12% 436.2589 447.7235 459.8666 472.7501 486.4438 501.0268 516.58856.62% 438.0913 449.6041 461.7982 474.7358 488.487 503.1313 518.75837.12% 439.9226 451.4835 463.7286 476.7202 490.529 505.2344 520.92687.62% 441.7528 453.3618 465.6578 478.7035 492.5697 507.3363 523.094C

ost

of

Eq

uit

y

CV Growth of NOPLAT

WACC and Effective Tax Rate:

This sensitivity table examines the relationship

between the weighted average cost of capital and

the effective tax rate. The effective tax rate is used

to determining the after-tax cost of debt a firm

requires in their WACC calculation. Slight

changes in the effective tax rate have notable

effects on the valuations of a firm. However,

slight changes in WACC while the effective tax

rate remains the same have much larger changes.

This is because changes in the WACC would stem

from changes in the cost of equity, if the effective

tax rate isn’t moving.

472.51$ 4.17% 4.67% 5.17% 5.67% 6.17% 6.67% 7.17%10.76% 1025.27 772.14 610.11 497.52 414.75 351.35 301.2311.76% 1010.54 760.47 600.41 489.19 407.42 344.79 295.2912.76% 995.81 748.81 590.70 480.85 400.09 338.23 289.3413.76% 981.08 737.14 581.00 472.51 392.76 331.67 283.3914.76% 966.35 725.47 571.30 464.18 385.43 325.11 277.4515.76% 951.61 713.81 561.60 455.84 378.10 318.56 271.5016.76% 936.88 702.14 551.89 447.50 370.77 312.00 265.56

WACC

Eff

ect

ive

Ta

xR

ate

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Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

Works Cited

(in order of appearance)

1. 1O'Hanlon, Michael E. "In an Era of Partisan Rancor, Republicans and Democrats Seem to Agree on Overall Defense Policy." Brookings, 20 Feb. 2020, www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/02/20/in-an-era-of-partisan-rancor-republicans-and-democrats-seem-to-agree-on-overall-defense-policy/. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

2. 2"Federal Government: National Defense Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment." Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed, 29 Oct. 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDEFX.

3. 3Grazier, Dan. "F-35 Design Flaws Mounting, New Document Shows." Project On Government Oversight, www.pogo.org/investigation/2020/03/f-35-design-flaws-mounting-new-document-shows/. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

4. 4Werner, Ben. "SECDEF Esper Preparing For Future Defense Spending Cuts." USNI News, 4 May 2020, news.usni.org/2020/05/04/secdef-esper-preparing-for-future-defense-spending-cuts. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

5. 5"An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030." Congressional Budget Office, www.cbo.gov/publication/56465. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

6. 6"Producer Price Index by Industry: Total Manufacturing Industries." Federal Reserve Economic

Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed, 13 Nov. 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCUOMFGOMFG.

7. 7"Producer Price Index (PPI)." U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 19 July 2008, www.bls.gov/ppi/. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

8. 8"Industry Profile." Aerospace Industries Association, 28 June 2016, www.aia-aerospace.org/research-center/industry-profile/. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

9. 9Macias, Amanda. "Here's the Firepower the Pentagon is Asking for in Its $705 Billion Budget." CNBC, 11 Feb. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/what-the-pentagon-is-asking-for-in-its-705-billion-budget.html. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

10. 10Handfield, Robert. "Is the FAR Getting in the Way of Early Supplier Involvement in Defense Projects?" SCM | Supply Chain Resource Cooperative (SCRC), 8 Feb. 2018, scm.ncsu.edu/scm-articles/article/is-the-far-getting-in-the-way-of-early-supplier-involvement-in-defense-projects. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

11. 11"2020 Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook." Deloitte United States, 29 Sept. 2020, www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/global-aerospace-and-defense-industry-outlook.html. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

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Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

12. 12"DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2021

Budget Proposal." U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, 10 Feb. 2020, www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2079489/dod-releases-fiscal-year-2021-budget-proposal/. Accessed 17 Nov. 2020.

13. 13About Us. (2020, February 7). https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/who-we-are.html

14. 14Factest Research Systems. (2020) From Factset Database.

15. 15Grazier Dan Grazier is the Jack Shanahan Military Fellow at the Center for Defense Information at POGO., D. (2020, March 11). F-35 Design Flaws Mounting, New Document Shows. https://www.pogo.org/investigation/2020/03/f-35-design-flaws-mounting-new-document-shows/

16. 16Lockheed Martin’s Website (2020).

17. 17Lockheed Martin’s 10-k

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Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.

Important Disclaimer This report was created by students enrolled in the Security Analysis (6F:112) class at the University of Iowa. The report was originally created to offer an internal investment recommendation for the University of Iowa Krause Fund and its advisory board. The report also provides potential employers and other interested parties an example of the students’ skills, knowledge and abilities. Members of the Krause Fund are not registered investment advisors, brokers

or officially licensed financial professionals. The investment advice contained in this report does not represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. Unless otherwise noted, facts and figures included in this report are from publicly available sources. This report is not a complete compilation of data, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. From time to time, the University of Iowa, its faculty, staff, students, or the Krause Fund may hold a financial interest in the companies mentioned in this report

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Page 17: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed Martin (LMT)Revenue Decomposition

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 20AeronauticsProduct 15,066 16,981 18,207 20,319 21,030 21,766 22,474 23,204 23,900 24,617Growth % 12.71% 7.22% 11.60% 3.50% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00%Service 2,227 2,429 3,035 3,374 3,492 3,614 3,741 3,872 4,007 4,148 Growth % 9.07% 24.95% 11.17% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%Total 17,293 19,410 21,242 23,693 24,522 25,381 26,214 27,076 27,907 28,765 Growth % 12.24% 9.44% 11.54% 3.50% 3.50% 3.29% 3.29% 3.07% 3.07%% of total 36.57% 38.85% 39.51% 39.61% 39.82% 40.09% 40.36% 40.64% 40.87% 41.15%Missiles and Fire ControlProduct 5,602 5,940 6,945 8,424 8,677 8,915 9,138 9,367 9,577 9,769 Growth % 6.03% 16.92% 21.30% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%Service 1,187 1,342 1,517 1,707 1,758 1,807 1,852 1,898 1,941 1,980 Growth % 13.06% 13.04% 12.52% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%Total 6,789 7,282 8,462 10,131 10,435 10,722 10,990 11,265 11,518 11,749 Growth % 7.26% 16.20% 19.72% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%% of total 14.36% 14.58% 15.74% 16.94% 16.94% 16.94% 16.92% 16.91% 16.87% 16.81%Rotary and Mission SystemsProduct 11,401 11,398 11,714 12,206 12,450 12,637 12,826 12,987 13,149 13,281 Growth % -0.03% 2.77% 4.20% 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% 1.25% 1.25% 1.00%Service 2,194 2,265 2,536 2,922 2,995 3,062 3,124 3,171 3,210 3,242 Growth % 3.24% 11.96% 15.22% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.50% 1.25% 1.00%Total 13,595 13,663 14,250 15,128 15,445 15,699 15,950 16,157 16,359 16,523 Growth % 0.50% 4.30% 6.16% 2.10% 1.65% 1.60% 1.30% 1.25% 1.00%% of total 28.75% 27.35% 26.51% 25.29% 25.08% 24.80% 24.55% 24.25% 23.96% 23.64%SpaceProduct 8,012 8,183 8,139 9,104 9,377 9,635 9,876 10,147 10,452 10,765 Growth % 2.13% -0.54% 11.86% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.00%Service 1,601 1,422 1,669 1,756 1,809 1,867 1,928 1,986 2,046 2,107 Growth % -11.18% 17.37% 5.21% 3.00% 3.25% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%Total 9,613 9,605 9,808 10,860 11,186 11,502 11,804 12,133 12,497 12,872 Growth % -0.08% 2.11% 10.73% 3.00% 2.83% 2.62% 2.79% 3.00% 3.00%% of total 20.33% 19.23% 18.24% 18.16% 18.16% 18.17% 18.17% 18.21% 18.30% 18.41%Total Revenues 47,290 49,960 53,762 59,812 61,588 63,304 64,959 66,631 68,282 69,908 Total Growth 5.65% 7.61% 11.25% 2.97% 2.79% 2.61% 2.58% 2.48% 2.38%

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Page 18: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinIncome Statement

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)Total Net Sales 51,048 53,762 59,812 61,418 63,066 64,759 66,498 68,283 69,909 Products 43,875 45,005 50,053 49,965 51,307 52,684 54,098 55,550 56,873 Services 7,173 8,757 9,759 11,452 11,760 12,075 12,400 12,732 13,036 Cost of Goods Sold (45,500) (46,488) (51,445) (54,800) (56,271) (57,782) (59,333) (60,925) (62,376) Products (38,555) (39,132) (43,400) (43,920) (45,078) (46,266) (47,486) (48,739) (49,876) Services (6,405) (7,738) (8,731) (10,218) (10,493) (10,774) (11,064) (11,361) (11,631) Goodwill impairment - - - - - - - - - Severance charges - (96) - (91) (94) (97) (99) (102) (104) Other 655 1,639 1,875 92 94 96 99 102 104 Depreciation expense (258) (379) (422) (435) (470) (507) (545) (584) (624) Ammortization Expense (937) (782) (767) (227) (230) (234) (238) (242) (246) Gross Profit 5,548 7,274 8,367 6,618 6,795 6,978 7,165 7,357 7,533 Other income/expense, net 373 60 178 382 393 403 414 425 435 Operating profit 5,921 7,334 8,545 7,000 7,188 7,381 7,579 7,782 7,968 Other non-operating income (1) (828) (651) (111) (114) (117) (120) (123) (126)Interest Expense (651) (668) (653) (361) (353) (368) (381) (394) (407)Earnings before income taxes 5,269 5,838 7,241 6,528 6,721 6,896 7,078 7,265 7,434 Income Tax Expense (3,340) (792) (1,011) (898) (925) (949) (974) (1,000) (1,023) Net earnings from continuing operations 1,929 5,046 6,230 5,630 5,796 5,947 6,104 6,266 6,411 Net earnings/loss from discontinued operations 73 - - - - - - - - Net earnings 2,002 5,046 6,230 5,630 5,796 5,947 6,104 6,266 6,411 Per Share:Basic EPS 7 18 22 20 20 21 22 23 24 Total Shares Outstanding 285 283 280 282 285 281 277 274 270 Dividends per share 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 13

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Page 19: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinBalance Sheet

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)Total assets 46521 44876 47528 53637 56661 59464 62334 65340 68347Total current assets 17461 16103 17095 21615 23277 24715 26205 27819 29455Cash and cash equivalents 2861 772 1514 4490 5491 6451 7452 8562 9740Receivables, net 8603 2444 2337 2400 2464 2530 2598 2668 2732Contract assets - 9472 9094 9,338 9,589 9,846 10,111 10,382 10,629 Inventories, net 4487 2997 3619 4342 4458 4578 4701 4827 4942Deferred income taxes - - - - - - - - - Other current assets 1,510 418 531 1,046 1,275 1,309 1,344 1,380 1,413 Total current assets 17,461 16,103 17,095 21,615 23,277 24,715 26,205 27,819 29,455 Property, Plant and, Equipment, gross 15,361 16,089 17,978 19,462 20,986 22,551 24,157 25,807 27,496 Buildings 6,401 6,553 7,013 Land & Improvements 131 135 136 Machinery 7,624 7,871 8,128 Construction in progress 1,205 1,530 1,701 Operating lease right of use asset 1,000 1,138 1,277 1,416 1,556 1,697 1,837 Accumulated Depreciation 9,586 9,965 10,387 10,822 11,292 11,799 12,344 12,928 13,552 Property, plant and equipment, net 5,775 6,124 7,591 8,640 9,694 10,751 11,813 12,879 13,945 Goodwill 10,807 10,769 10,604 10,604 10,604 10,604 10,604 10,604 10,604 Other Intangible Assets 3,797 3,941 3,724 3,783 3,843 3,906 3,970 4,036 4,103 Deferred income taxes 3,111 3,208 3,319 2,581 2,657 2,727 2,799 2,873 2,940 Other noncurrent assets 5,570 4,731 5,195 6,413 6,585 6,762 6,943 7,130 7,300 Total assets 46,521 44,876 47,528 53,637 56,661 59,464 62,334 65,340 68,347 Accounts payable 1,467 2,402 1,281 2,223 2,336 2,457 2,586 2,724 2,863 Customer advances and contract liabilities 6,752 6,491 7,054 8,187 8,407 8,633 8,865 9,103 9,319 Other current liabilities 3,668 4,005 4,387 4,800 5,044 5,305 5,584 5,882 6,182 Current maturities of long-term debt 750 1,500 1,250 1,280 1,407 1,461 1,500 1,541 1,582 Total current liabilities 12,637 14,398 13,972 16,491 17,195 17,857 18,536 19,250 19,947 Long-term debt, net 13,513 12,604 12,259 10,844 11,582 12,059 12,493 12,934 13,381 Provision for risks/charges 17,342 12,978 14,381 17,978 18,460 18,956 19,465 19,987 20,463 Other non-current Liabilities 3,638 3,447 3,745 4,250 4,364 4,481 4,601 4,725 4,837 Total liabilities 47,130 43,427 44,357 49,562 51,601 53,352 55,095 56,896 58,628 Common stock 284 281 280 282 285 281 277 274 270 Retained earnings 11,573 15,434 18,401 19,313 20,303 21,365 22,500 23,712 24,993 Accumulated other comprehensive loss / income (12,540) (14,321) (15,554) (15,554) (15,554) (15,554) (15,554) (15,554) (15,554) Noncontrolling interests in subsidiary 74 55 44 34 26 20 16 12 9 Total equity (609) 1,449 3,171 4,075 5,060 6,112 7,239 8,444 9,719 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 46,521 44,876 47,528 53,637 56,661 59,464 62,334 65,340 68,347

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Page 20: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)Common Size Balance SheetAs a % of SalesFiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)Total assets 91.13% 83.47% 79.46% 89.68% 94.73% 99.42% 104.22% 109.24% 114.27%Total current assets 34.21% 29.95% 28.58% 36.14% 38.92% 41.32% 43.81% 46.51% 49.25%Cash and cash equivalents 5.60% 1.44% 2.53% 7.51% 9.18% 10.79% 12.46% 14.31% 16.28%Receivables, net 16.85% 4.55% 3.91% 4.01% 4.12% 4.23% 4.34% 4.46% 4.57%Contract assets 0.00% 17.62% 15.20% 15.61% 16.03% 16.46% 16.90% 17.36% 17.77%Inventories, net 8.79% 5.57% 6.05% 7.26% 7.45% 7.65% 7.86% 8.07% 8.26%Deferred income taxes 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Other current assets 2.96% 0.78% 0.89% 1.75% 2.13% 2.19% 2.25% 2.31% 2.36%Total current assets 34.21% 29.95% 28.58% 36.14% 38.92% 41.32% 43.81% 46.51% 49.25%Property, Plant and, Equipment, gross 30.09% 29.93% 30.06% 32.54% 35.09% 37.70% 40.39% 43.15% 45.97% Operating lease right of use asset 0.00% 0.00% 1.67% 1.90% 2.14% 2.37% 2.60% 2.84% 3.07%Accumulated Depreciation 18.78% 18.54% 17.37% 18.09% 18.88% 19.73% 20.64% 21.61% 22.66%Property, plant and equipment, net 11.31% 11.39% 12.69% 14.45% 16.21% 17.98% 19.75% 21.53% 23.31%Goodwill 21.17% 20.03% 17.73% 17.73% 17.73% 17.73% 17.73% 17.73% 17.73%Other Intangible Assets 7.44% 7.33% 6.23% 6.32% 6.43% 6.53% 6.64% 6.75% 6.86%Deferred income taxes 6.09% 5.97% 5.55% 4.32% 4.44% 4.56% 4.68% 4.80% 4.91%Other noncurrent assets 10.91% 8.80% 8.69% 10.72% 11.01% 11.31% 11.61% 11.92% 12.20%Total assets 91.13% 83.47% 79.46% 89.68% 94.73% 99.42% 104.22% 109.24% 114.27%Accounts payable 2.87% 4.47% 2.14% 3.72% 3.91% 4.11% 4.32% 4.55% 4.79%Customer advances and contract liabilities 13.23% 12.07% 11.79% 13.69% 14.06% 14.43% 14.82% 15.22% 15.58%Other current liabilities 7.19% 7.45% 7.33% 8.03% 8.43% 8.87% 9.34% 9.83% 10.34%Current maturities of long-term debt 1.47% 2.79% 2.09% 2.14% 2.35% 2.44% 2.51% 2.58% 2.65%Total current liabilities 24.76% 26.78% 23.36% 27.57% 28.75% 29.85% 30.99% 32.18% 33.35%Long-term debt, net 26.47% 23.44% 20.50% 18.13% 19.36% 20.16% 20.89% 21.62% 22.37%Provision for risks/charges 33.97% 24.14% 24.04% 30.06% 30.86% 31.69% 32.54% 33.42% 34.21%Other non-current Liabilities 7.13% 6.41% 6.26% 7.11% 7.30% 7.49% 7.69% 7.90% 8.09%Total liabilities 92.32% 80.78% 74.16% 82.86% 86.27% 89.20% 92.11% 95.12% 98.02%Common stock 0.56% 0.52% 0.47% 0.47% 0.48% 0.47% 0.46% 0.46% 0.45%Retained earnings 22.67% 28.71% 30.76% 32.29% 33.94% 35.72% 37.62% 39.64% 41.79%Accumulated other comprehensive loss / income -24.57% -26.64% -26.00% -26.00% -26.00% -26.00% -26.00% -26.00% -26.00%Noncontrolling interests in subsidiary 0.14% 0.10% 0.07% 0.06% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02%Total equity -1.19% 2.70% 5.30% 6.81% 8.46% 10.22% 12.10% 14.12% 16.25%Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 91.13% 83.47% 79.46% 89.68% 94.73% 99.42% 104.22% 109.24% 114.27%

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Page 21: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinCommon Size Income Statement

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)Total Net Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Products 85.95% 83.71% 83.68% 81.35% 81.35% 81.35% 81.35% 81.35% 81.35% Services 14.05% 16.29% 16.32% 18.65% 18.65% 18.65% 18.65% 18.65% 18.65%Cost of Goods Sold -89.13% -86.47% -86.01% -89.23% -89.23% -89.23% -89.23% -89.23% -89.23% Products -75.53% -72.79% -72.56% -71.51% -71.48% -71.44% -71.41% -71.38% -71.34% Services -12.55% -14.39% -14.60% -16.64% -16.64% -16.64% -16.64% -16.64% -16.64% Goodwill impairment 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Severance charges 0.00% -0.18% 0.00% -0.15% -0.15% -0.15% -0.15% -0.15% -0.15% Other 1.28% 3.05% 3.13% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% Depreciation expense -0.51% -0.70% -0.71% -0.71% -0.75% -0.78% -0.82% -0.86% -0.89% Ammortization Expense -1.84% -1.45% -1.28% -0.37% -0.37% -0.36% -0.36% -0.35% -0.35%Gross Profit 10.87% 13.53% 13.99% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77%Other income/expense, net 0.73% 0.11% 0.30% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62%Operating profit 11.60% 13.64% 14.29% 11.40% 11.40% 11.40% 11.40% 11.40% 11.40%Other non-operating income 0.00% -1.54% -1.09% -0.18% -0.18% -0.18% -0.18% -0.18% -0.18%Interest Expense -1.28% -1.24% -1.09% -0.59% -0.56% -0.57% -0.57% -0.58% -0.58%Earnings before income taxes 10.32% 10.86% 12.11% 10.63% 10.66% 10.65% 10.64% 10.64% 10.63%Income Tax Expense -6.54% -1.47% -1.69% -1.46% -1.47% -1.47% -1.46% -1.46% -1.46%Net earnings from continuing operations 3.78% 9.39% 10.42% 9.17% 9.19% 9.18% 9.18% 9.18% 9.17%Net earnings/loss from discontinued operations 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Net earnings 3.92% 9.39% 10.42% 9.17% 9.19% 9.18% 9.18% 9.18% 9.17%

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Page 22: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinForecasted Cash Flow Statement

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)Operating ActivitiesNet Earnings 5,630 5,796 5,947 6,104 6,266 6,411 Adjustments to reconci le net income to net cash provided by operating activi ties :Depreciation and Amortization 661 701 741 783 825 869 Changes in assets and liabilitiesContract assets (244) (251) (257) (264) (271) (247)Receivables (63) (64) (66) (68) (70) (64) Deferred income taxes - - - - - - Inventories (723) (117) (120) (123) (126) (115) Other current assets (515) (228) (34) (35) (36) (33) Accounts payable 942 113 121 129 138 139 Current maturi ties of long-term debt 30 127 54 39 40 41 Customer advances and contract l iabi l i ties 1,133 220 226 232 238 217 Deferred taxes 738 (76) (69) (72) (74) (67) Other non-current Liabi l i ties 505 114 117 120 124 113 Accrued pens ion l iabi l i ties 3,597 483 496 509 523 476 Other Current Liabi l i ties 413 244 261 279 298 300 Net cash provided by operating activites 12,104 7,061 7,416 7,633 7,874 8,041

Investing ActivitesCapita l Expenditures (1,484) (1,524) (1,565) (1,607) (1,650) (1,689) Other non-current Assets (1,218) (172) (177) (182) (186) (170) Change in Intangible assets (286) (291) (296) (302) (307) (313) Net cash used for investing activities (2,988) (1,987) (2,038) (2,090) (2,144) (2,172)

Financing ActivitiesCommon stock 2 3 (4) (4) (4) (3) Long-term debt (1,415) 738 477 434 441 447 Accumulated other comprehensive loss / income - - - - - - Repurchase of common stock (1,747) (1,747) (1,747) (1,747) (1,747) (1,747) Common stock dividends pa id (2,971) (3,059) (3,138) (3,221) (3,306) (3,383) Non-control l ing interest in subs idiary (10) (8) (6) (5) (4) (3) Net cash provided by financing activities (6,141) (4,072) (4,418) (4,542) (4,620) (4,690) Increase (Decrease) in cash & cash equiva lents 2,976 1,002 960 1,000 1,110 1,178 Cash & cash equiva lents , beginning of year 1,514 4,490 5,491 6,451 7,452 8,562 End of the Year Cash Balance 4,490 5,491 6,451 7,452 8,562 9,740

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Page 23: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinHistorical Cash Flow Statement

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2017 2018 2019Operating ActivitiesNet Income / Starting Line 2002 5046 6230Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 1195 1161 1189Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit 3432 -244 222Other Funds -113 269 138Funds from Operations 6516 6232 7779Extraordinaries 0 0 0Changes in Working Capital -40 -3094 -468Net Operating Cash Flow 6476 3138 7311Investing ActivitiesCapital Expenditures -1177 -1278 -1484Net Assets from Acquisitions 0 0 0Sale of Fixed Assets & Businesses 0 0 0Purchase/Sale of Investments 0 0 0Other Funds 30 203 243Net Investing Cash Flow -1147 -1075 -1241Financing ActivitiesCash Dividends Paid -2163 -2347 -2556Change in Capital Stock -1930 -1492 -1200Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net 0 -150 -1500Other Funds -212 -163 -72Net Financing Cash Flow -4305 -4152 -5328Exchange Rate Effect - - -Miscellaneous Funds 0 0 0Net Change in Cash 1024 -2089 742

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Page 24: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinValue Driver Estimation

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)

NOPLAT:EBITANet Sales 51048.00 53762.00 59812.00 61417.60 63066.30 64759.26 66497.67 68282.74 69908.89COGS (Incl. Depreciation) 45500.00 46488.00 51445.00 54799.96 56271.02 57781.56 59332.66 60925.39 62376.33Other operating income/expense 373.00 60.00 178.00 382.30 392.56 403.10 413.92 425.03 435.16Implied interest on operating leases 15.73 31.44 31.27 31.27 31.27 31.27 31.27 31.27 31.27EBITA: 5905.27 7302.56 8513.73 6968.67 7156.58 7349.53 7547.66 7751.11 7936.45Adjusted Taxes:Provision for income taxes 3340.00 792.00 1011.00 898.28 924.75 948.89 973.95 999.70 1022.97Tax shield on interest expense 89.58 91.92 89.85 49.64 48.62 50.60 52.38 54.18 56.00Tax Shield on Implied Lease Interest 2.16 4.33 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30Tax on non-operating income 0.63 112.33 90.89 15.28 15.69 16.11 16.54 16.98 17.39Adjusted Taxes 3432.38 1000.57 1196.05 967.49 993.35 1019.90 1047.16 1075.16 1100.66Change in deferred tax liability:DT Assets Total 3111.00 3208.00 3319.00 2581.39 2657.45 2726.83 2798.84 2872.84 2939.71DT Current Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00DT Long-term Assets 3111.00 3208.00 3319.00 2581.39 2657.45 2726.83 2798.84 2872.84 2939.71DT Liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Net DT Liability -3111.00 -3208.00 -3319.00 -2581.39 -2657.45 -2726.83 -2798.84 -2872.84 -2939.71Change in DT Liabilities 3514.00 -97.00 -111.00 737.61 -76.06 -69.38 -72.01 -74.00 -66.87NOPLAT: 5986.89 6204.99 7206.68 6738.79 6087.17 6260.25 6428.49 6601.96 6768.92

Invested Capital (IC):Receivables, net 8603.00 2444.00 2337.00 2399.73 2464.15 2530.30 2598.23 2667.97 2731.51Normal Cash (1% of sales) 1020.96 1075.24 1196.24 1228.35 1261.33 1295.19 1329.95 1365.65 1398.18Inventories, net 4487.00 2997.00 3619.00 4341.66 4458.21 4577.89 4700.77 4826.96 4941.92Other current assets 1510.00 418.00 531.00 1046.01 1274.50 1308.72 1343.85 1379.92 1412.79Contract assets - 9472 9094 9338 9589 9846 10111 10382 10629Operating Current Assets 15620.96 16406.24 16777.24 18353.88 19046.99 19558.29 20083.31 20622.43 21113.55Accounts payable 1467.00 2402.00 1281.00 2222.86 2335.94 2456.85 2586.03 2724.00 2862.86Customer advances and contract liabilities 6752.00 6491.00 7054.00 8187.49 8407.28 8632.96 8864.71 9102.67 9319.45Other current liabilities 3668.00 4005.00 4387.00 4800.18 5044.38 5305.47 5584.44 5882.38 6182.25Operating Current Liabilities 11887.00 12898.00 12722.00 15210.52 15787.59 16395.28 17035.17 17709.05 18364.57Operating Working Capital 3733.96 3508.24 4055.24 3143.36 3259.39 3163.01 3048.14 2913.38 2748.99Net PPE 5775.00 6124.00 7591.00 8640.49 9693.95 10751.49 11813.22 12879.24 13944.68Other Intangible Assets 3797.00 3941.00 3724.00 3782.92 3843.46 3905.70 3969.69 4035.51 4103.23PV of operating leases 578.37 1155.82 1149.54 1308.47 1468.00 1628.15 1788.93 1950.37 2111.71Other noncurrent assets 5570 4731 5195 6413 6585 6762 6943 7130 7300Other LT Assets 9945.37 9827.82 10068.54 11504.38 11896.61 12295.76 12702.06 13115.70 13514.55

Total IC 19454.33 19460.06 21714.78 23288.23 24849.95 26210.26 27563.42 28908.32 30208.22

Free Cash Flow (FCF):NOPLAT 5986.89 6204.99 7206.68 6738.79 6087.17 6260.25 6428.49 6601.96 6768.92Change in IC 1771.11 5.73 2254.72 1573.45 1561.72 1360.31 1353.15 1344.90 1299.90FCF 4215.78 6199.26 4951.96 5165.34 4525.45 4899.94 5075.34 5257.05 5469.01

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC):NOPLAT 5986.89 6204.99 7206.68 6738.79 6087.17 6260.25 6428.49 6601.96 6768.92Beg. IC 17683.22 19454.33 19460.06 21714.78 23288.23 24849.95 26210.26 27563.42 28908.32ROIC 33.86% 31.90% 37.03% 31.03% 26.14% 25.19% 24.53% 23.95% 23.42%

Economic Profit (EP):Beg. IC 17683.22 19454.33 19460.06 21714.78 23288.23 24849.95 26210.26 27563.42 28908.32x (ROIC - WACC) 28.19% 26.23% 31.36% 25.36% 20.47% 19.52% 18.86% 18.28% 17.75%EP $ 4,984.25 $ 5,101.93 $ 6,103.30 $ 5,507.56 $ 4,766.73 $ 4,851.26 $ 4,942.37 $ 5,039.11 $ 5,129.81

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Page 25: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinWeighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimation

Cost of Equity: ASSUMPTIONS:Risk-Free Rate 0.88% U.S. 10 Year T-bondBeta 0.98 3 Year monthly betaEquity Risk Premium 5.29% Damodaran equity risk premiumCost of Equity 6.06%

Cost of Debt:Risk-Free Rate 0.88% U.S. 10 Year treasurtImplied Default Premium 1.84% 2050 LMT Corporate bond yield minus risk free ratePre-Tax Cost of Debt 2.72% YTM on 2050 LMT Corporate Bond

13.76% Effective Tax RateAfter-Tax Cost of Debt 2.35%

Market Value of Common Equity: MV WeightsTotal Shares Outstanding 280 Current Stock Price $377.13MV of Equity 105,596.40 89.30%

Market Value of Debt:Short-Term DebtCurrent Portion of LTD 1250Long-Term Debt 12259PV of Operating Leases 1150MV of Total Debt 12,654.00 10.70%

Market Value of the Firm MV of Firm 118,250.40 100.00%

WACC 5.67%

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Page 26: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinDividend Discount Model (DDM) or Fundamental P/E Valuation Model

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)

EPS 19.95$ 20.35$ 21.15$ 22.01$ 22.90$ 23.73$

Key Assumptions CV growth of EPS 1.76% CV Year ROE 66.03% Cost of Equity 6.06%

1 2 3 4 5Future Cash Flows P/E Multiple (CV Year) 22.64 22.63594 EPS (CV Year) 23.73$ 23.73$ Future Stock Price 537.10 537.10$ Dividends Per Share 10.53$ 10.74$ 11.16$ 11.62$ 12.08$ Discounted Cash Flows 9.92$ 9.55$ 9.35$ 9.18$ 9.00$ 400.22$

Intrinsic Value as of Last FYE 447.23$ Implied Price as of Today 461.46$

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Page 27: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinDiscounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Economic Profit (EP) Valuation Models

Key Inputs: CV Growth of NOPLAT 2.39% CV Year ROIC 23.36% WACC 5.67% Cost of Equity 6.06%

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)

DCF Model:Free Cash Flow (FCF) 5165.3 4525.4 4899.9 5075.3 5257.1 5469.0Continuing Value (CV) 185255.4PV of FCF 4888.2 4052.8 4152.8 4070.6 3990.1 140608.8

Value of Operating Assets: 161763.2Non-Operating AdjustmentsExcess Cash 318Current portion of LT debt -1250LT debt -12259Provision for risks/charges -14381Other non-current Liabilities -3745Non-controlling Interest 44ESOP -503PV of operating leases -1150Value of Equity 128837.3Shares Outstanding 280.0Intrinsic Value of Last FYE 460.13$ Implied Price as of Today 474.78$

EP Model:Economic Profit (EP) 5507.6 4766.7 4851.3 4942.4 5039.1 5129.8Continuing Value (CV) 156347.1PV of EP 5212.0 4268.9 4111.5 3964.0 3824.7 118667.4

Total PV of EP 140048.4Invested Capital (last FYE) 21714.8Value of Operating Assets: 161763.2Non-Operating AdjustmentsExcess Cash 318Current portion of LT debt -1250.0LT debt -12259.0Provision for risks/charges -14381.0Other non-current liabilities -3745.0Non-controlling Interest 44.0ESOP -503.1PV of operating leases -1149.5Value of Equity 128837.3Shares Outstanding 280.0Intrinsic Value of Last FYE 460.13$ Implied Price as of Today 474.78$

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Page 28: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinRelative Valuation Models

EPS EPS Est. 5yrTicker Company Price 2020E 2021E P/E 20 P/E 21 EPS gr. PEG 20 PEG 21 EV/EBITANOC Northrop Grumman $289.82 $22.75 $24.59 12.74 11.79 7.6 1.68 1.55 13.1BA Boeing $144.39 ($6.39) $3.58 40.33 12.3 - 3.28 36.8BAESY BAE Systems $21.42 $2.01 $2.35 10.66 9.11 0.9 11.84 10.13 10.5LHX L3Harris Technologies $161.11 $6.49 $11.08 24.82 14.54 13.4 1.85 1.09 17RTX Raytheon Technologies $55.20 ($1.53) $2.06 26.8 -15.2 - -1.76 17.1AVAV AeroVironment $83.58 $1.72 $1.78 48.59 46.96 14 3.47 3.35 33.3TXT Textron Inc. $45.71 $1.20 $2.70 38.09 16.93 12.7TDG TransDigm Group Inc. $570.63 $8.96 $8.77 22.6HEI HEICO $132.46 $2.25 $2.19 36.8HON Honeywell Internationa $208.59 $6.89 $7.90 30.28 26.4 2.12 14.28 12.45 21.1GD General Dynamics $135.24 $11.07 $11.59 12.22 11.67 3.6 3.39 3.24 12.1

Average 25.34 22.73 4.56 4.17 21.19

LMT $377.13 20 20 18.9 18.5 0.72% 2,630.5 2,578.0 Implied Relative Value: P/E (EPS20) $ 505.44 P/E (EPS21) 462.61$ PEG (EPS20) 377.13$ PEG (EPS21) 377.13$

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Page 29: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinKey Management Ratios

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)

Liquidity Ratios:Current Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) 1.38 1.12 1.22 1.31 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.45 1.48Quick Ratio (Current Assets - Inventory)/Current Liabilities 1.03 0.91 0.96 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.23Cash Ratio (Cash + Cash Equivalents)/ Total Current Liabilities 0.23 0.05 0.11 0.27 0.32 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.49Asset-Management Ratios:

Total Assets Turnover (Sales/Total Assets) 1.10 1.20 1.26 1.15 1.11 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.02Inventory Turnover (Sales/Inventory) 11.38 17.94 16.53 14.15 14.15 14.15 14.15 14.15 14.15Receivables Turnover (Sales/A/R) 5.93 22.00 25.59 25.59 25.59 25.59 25.59 25.59 25.59Payables Turnover (Sales/ A/P) 34.80 22.38 46.69 27.63 27.00 26.36 25.71 25.07 24.42

Financial Leverage Ratios:Debt-to-Equity (Total liabilities/Total shareholder's equity) -77.39 29.97 13.99 12.16 10.20 8.73 7.61 6.74 6.03Equity Multiplier (Total assets/Total equity) -76.39 30.97 14.99 13.16 11.20 9.73 8.61 7.74 7.03Debt-to-Assets (Total Debt/Total Assets) 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22Assets-to-Equity (Total Assets/Total Equity) -76.39 30.97 14.99 13.16 11.20 9.73 8.61 7.74 7.03

Profitability Ratios:Gross Margin (Revenue - COGS)/ Revenue 10.87% 13.53% 13.99% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77% 10.77%Return on Assets (%) (Operating Income/ Total assets) 12.73% 16.34% 17.98% 13.05% 12.69% 12.41% 12.16% 11.91% 11.66%Return on Equity (%) (Net Income/Shareholder's Equity) -328.74% 348.24% 196.47% 138.15% 114.54% 97.30% 84.32% 74.20% 65.97%Return on Invested Capital (EBIT)(1-T)/Book Value of Invested Capital 19.37% 21.45% 23.84% 20.04% 19.34% 18.81% 18.36% 17.97% 17.60%Payout Policy Ratios:

Dividend Payout Ratio (Dividend/EPS) 107.18% 46.22% 40.74% 52.77% 52.77% 52.77% 52.77% 52.77% 52.77%Total Payout Ratio ((Divs. + Repurchases)/NI) 106.30% 46.05% 40.41% 52.73% 52.83% 52.84% 52.83% 52.83% 56.99%

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Page 30: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinPresent Value of Operating Lease Obligations

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Year 1 300.0 264.0 229.0 227.0 228.0 205.0 179.0 162.0 305.0 280.0Year 2 233.0 200.0 161.0 166.0 181.0 161.0 150.0 154.0 184.0 190.0Year 3 183.0 139.0 118.0 132.0 133.0 128.0 131.0 116.0 147.0 154.0Year 4 142.0 97.0 91.0 96.0 95.0 101.0 103.0 82.0 114.0 119.0Year 5 117.0 71.0 60.0 69.0 69.0 64.0 78.0 54.0 88.0 98.0Thereafter 324.0 246.0 200.0 224.0 150.0 134.0 121.0 55.0 459.0 446.0Total Minimum Payments 1299.0 1017.0 859.0 914.0 856.0 793.0 762.0 623.0 1297.0 1287.0Less: Cumulative Interest 118.0 90.3 75.3 82.3 68.4 63.6 61.7 44.6 141.2 137.5PV of Minimum Payments 1181.0 926.7 783.7 831.7 787.6 729.4 700.3 578.4 1155.8 1149.5

Implied Interest in Year 1 Payment 32.1 25.2 21.3 22.6 21.4 19.8 19.0 15.7 31.4 31.3

Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 2.72% 2.72% 2.72% 2.72% 2.72% 2.72% 2.72% 2.72% 2.72% 2.72%Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.0 5.2 4.6Expected Obligation in Year 6 & Beyond 117 71 60 69 69 64 78 54 88 98

Present Value of Lease PaymentsPV of Year 1 292.1 257.0 222.9 221.0 222.0 199.6 174.3 157.7 296.9 272.6PV of Year 2 220.8 189.5 152.6 157.3 171.5 152.6 142.2 146.0 174.4 180.1PV of Year 3 168.8 128.2 108.9 121.8 122.7 118.1 120.9 107.0 135.6 142.1PV of Year 4 127.5 87.1 81.7 86.2 85.3 90.7 92.5 73.7 102.4 106.9PV of Year 5 102.3 62.1 52.5 60.3 60.3 56.0 68.2 47.2 76.9 85.7PV of 6 & beyond 269.4 202.7 165.1 185.1 125.7 112.4 102.2 46.8 369.5 362.2Capitalized PV of Payments 1181.0 926.7 783.7 831.7 787.6 729.4 700.3 578.4 1155.8 1149.5

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Page 31: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinEffects of ESOP Exercise and Share Repurchases on Common Stock Account and Number of Shares Outstanding

Number of Options Outstanding (shares): 1,793,625Average Time to Maturity (years): 2.08Expected Annual Number of Options Exercised: 863,327

Current Average Strike Price: 79.76$ Cost of Equity: 6.06%Current Stock Price: $377.13

Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025(CV)Increase in Shares Outstanding: 863,327 863,327 69,066 0 0 0Average Strike Price: 79.76$ 79.76$ 79.76$ 79.76$ 79.76$ 79.76$ Increase in Common Stock Account: 6.89 6.89 0.55 - - -

Change in Treasury Stock 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747Expected Price of Repurchased Shares: 377.13$ 399.98$ 424.22$ 449.93$ 477.20$ 506.11$ Number of Shares Repurchased: 4.63 4.37 4.12 3.88 3.66 3.45

Shares Outstanding (beginning of the year) 280 282 285 281 277 274Plus: Shares Issued Through ESOP 6.89 6.89 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00Less: Shares Repurchased in Treasury 4.63 4.37 4.12 3.88 3.66 3.45 Shares Outstanding (end of the year) 282.25 284.77 281.20 277.32 273.66 270.21

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Page 32: Industrials and Materials Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Lockheed MartinSensitivity Tables

474.78$ 4.17% 4.67% 5.17% 5.67% 6.17% 6.67% 7.17%2.09% 850.15 659.52 530.84 438.15 368.22 313.59 269.752.19% 890.72 684.35 547.28 449.66 376.60 319.88 274.582.29% 935.59 711.26 564.87 461.85 385.41 326.46 279.612.39% 985.51 740.53 583.73 474.78 394.69 333.34 284.862.49% 1041.38 772.49 603.99 488.52 404.47 340.55 290.322.59% 1104.31 807.53 625.83 503.16 414.80 348.12 296.032.69% 1175.75 846.10 649.42 518.78 425.72 356.07 301.99

474.78$ 5.37% 5.47% 5.57% 5.67% 5.77% 5.87% 5.97%20.36% 526.04 504.75 484.81 466.08 448.46 431.85 416.1721.36% 529.58 508.16 488.09 469.25 451.52 434.81 419.0422.36% 532.81 511.27 491.09 472.14 454.31 437.51 421.6523.36% 535.76 514.11 493.82 474.78 456.86 439.97 424.0324.36% 538.46 516.71 496.34 477.20 459.20 442.24 426.2225.36% 540.96 519.11 498.65 479.43 461.36 444.32 428.2426.36% 543.26 521.33 500.79 481.50 463.35 446.25 430.10

474.78$ 2.09% 2.19% 2.29% 2.39% 2.49% 2.59% 2.69%4.56% 432.62 443.98 456.01 468.78 482.36 496.81 512.235.06% 434.46 445.87 457.96 470.78 484.41 498.93 514.425.56% 436.31 447.77 459.90 472.78 486.47 501.05 516.606.06% 438.15 449.66 461.85 474.78 488.52 503.16 518.786.56% 439.99 451.55 463.79 476.77 490.58 505.28 520.967.06% 441.83 453.43 465.73 478.77 492.63 507.39 523.147.56% 443.67 455.32 467.66 480.76 494.68 509.50 525.32

474.78$ 4.17% 4.67% 5.17% 5.67% 6.17% 6.67% 7.17%10.76% 1024.87 771.33 609.04 496.28 413.38 349.89 299.7011.76% 1011.75 761.06 600.60 489.11 407.15 344.37 294.7512.76% 998.63 750.80 592.17 481.94 400.92 338.86 289.8013.76% 985.51 740.53 583.73 474.78 394.69 333.34 284.8614.76% 972.40 730.27 575.29 467.61 388.45 327.83 279.9115.76% 959.28 720.00 566.86 460.44 382.22 322.31 274.9616.76% 946.16 709.74 558.42 453.28 375.99 316.80 270.01

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32