INDUS RIVER KEY COUNTRY EXPOSURE RIVER FLOW & RUNOFF MIX CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST & FUTURE TREND ICE RESERVES & GLACIER MELT Afghanistan Annual flow estimation Temperature Change (°C) (RCP4.5) Hydrological Changes (mm/year) (RCP4.5) China India Pakistan Note: the share of surface water resources refers to the ratio of surface water produced internally by the river in the respective country and the country’s total renewable surface water. Source: China Water Risk based on data from Center for Water Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Rainfall, snowfall and runoff change are expressed in equivalent water height. All data are calculated from five ensemble model (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, CCSM4, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR) in IPCC AR5. Source: China Water Risk based on calculation by CAS-IGSNRR using MPI-HM, PCRGLOBWB and WaterGAP hydrological models Surface Water Resources Population GDP 24% 30% 40% GDP Population Surface Water Resources 0.002% 0.004% 0.4% GDP Population Surface Water Resources 4% 7% 8% 1956-2005 2006-2055 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 GDP Population Surface Water Resources 25% 88% 92% Runoff mix in the upper Indus Souce: China Water Risk based on Lutz et al (2014) Glacier melt 40% Base flow 11% Snow melt 22% Rainfall- runoff 27% Based on several sources, the contribution of glacier melt and snow melt to the runoffs in the Upper Indus could range from 62% to 71% DEFINITIONS (FAO AQUASTAT): − River flow/runoffs: the amount of river water that flows in a given time − Surface water produced internally: long-term average annual volume of surface water generated by direct runoff from endogenous precipitation (surface runoff) and groundwater contributions − Total renewable surface water: the sum of the internal renew- able surface water resources and the total external renewable surface water resources Glaciers in the Indus: Number: 18,495 Glacier area shrinkage: 146 -0.6 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1956-2005 2006-2055 1.14 1.81 -0.4 Snowfall Rainfall Runoff -0.22 -0.50 0.41 0.32 -0.25 0.08 68x Three Gorges Dams > Ice reserves: 2,696 km 3 79% 5,700 masl of Indus’s glacier areas are below masl = metres above sea level = 4,239-5,086 km 2 20-24% 2007-2050 (under RCP4.5) 197bn m 3 NO WATER, NO GROWTH Does Asia have enough water to develop? Glacier area: 21,193 km 2 53% size of Switzerland INDUS RIVER Indus River originates from high mountain lakes on the Third Pole and runs through China, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan before emptying into the Arabian Sea. 47% of the Indus River Basin faces ‘extremely high’ water stress. THE INDUS RIVER BASIN THE INDUS MATTERS FOR COUNTRIES, PEOPLE & THE ECONOMY Length Basin Area Annual flow Flow through Share of ice & snow melt in upper reach Average surface water resources Basin population Basin GDP in 2015 Transboundary 2,880 km 1.08-1.26 million km 2 146-197 billion m 3 Afghanistan, China, India, Pakistan 62-79% of runoff 155 billion m 3 276 million US$380 billion (constant 2010 price) Yes India and Pakistan signed the ‘Indus Waters Treaty’ in 1960. Total surface water resources = 155 billion m 3 Total population = 276 million Total 2015 GDP (constant 2010 price) = US$380 billion Pakistan 39% Pakistan 61% India 46% India 34% Pakistan 52% India 46% China 7% China 0.02% Afghanistan 9% Afghanistan 5% China 0.06% Afghanistan 2% GDP mix Industry 38% Agriculture 23% Services 39% Water Use Per Unit GDP (m 3 /USD) Irrawaddy Amu Danya Brahmaputra Mekong Salween Ganges Tarim Indus Yangtze Yellow 0.15 NO WATER, NO GROWTH Does Asia have enough water to develop? Water use mix Agriculture 62% Industry 12% Municipal 26% Water use per capita: 203m 3 /pax For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected] For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected]