0 Benedict Bingham IMF Senior Resident Representative Indonesia: Sustaining Inclusive Growth “The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.” Forum for Development Analysis Jakarta, 23 November 2012
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Benedict Bingham
IMF Senior Resident Representative
Indonesia: Sustaining Inclusive Growth
“The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.”
Forum for Development Analysis Jakarta, 23 November 2012
1
Outline
Impressive macroeconomic performance
Disconnect with social indicators?
Productivity challenge
Economic development since Reformasi impressive….
2 Source: IMF WEO, Oct 2012
Indonesia’s performance amongst the best in Asia and G20 EM, especially during GFC….
3 Source: IMF WEO, Oct 2012
2003 - 2007 2007 - 2011
Employment and productivity numbers look solid….
4
Indonesia: Growth, Employment, and Productivity
Inclusiveness indicators remain weak though…
5
Gini coefficient rising (and understated?)
Almost two thirds of labor force is without a formal sector job
Just under half the population still living on less than $2/day
Underperformance of non-commodity exports a factor?
6
ASEAN 5 and China: Labor Pool and Non-Commodity Exports
Sectoral productivity trends a concern?
Indonesia: Productivity Growth by Sector (3 year moving average)