Indonesia AND AUSTRALIA

Indonesia AND AUSTRALIAAssoc Prof Greg Fealy

Asialink Leaders Program, March 2013

outline• Key Indonesian historical events and

Australia’s role• Current trends in Indonesia

• Political• Economic• Socio-cultural and demographic

• Contemporary Australia-Indonesia relations

Is indonesia important?• In what ways is Indonesia important to

Australia?• What are key elements of discourse in

Australia about Indonesia?• Does Australia over-emphasise Indonesia’s

importance?• Is Indonesia more important to Australia than

Australia is to it?

Indonesia’s importance• Military and Strategic

• Threat of military attack from Indonesia• Invaders attacking through Indonesian

archipelago• Impact of cooperation or antagonism in facing

regional crises (eg China)

• Diplomatic: Indonesian role in securing or denying Australian diplomatic ambitions

• Economic: 12th most important trading partner

• Cultural and Educational

Difference and self-definition

• Much of discourse is about stark differences between Australia and Indonesia• Size and geography• Ethnicity• Religion• Wealth• Cultural heritage

• Difference as threat or opportunity; defining Australia’s attitude to region through Indonesia• Compare Pauline Hanson and Paul Keating

Indonesian political History

• Dutch colonial state• Japanese Occupation, 1942-45• Indonesian Revolution, 1945-49• Parliamentary Democracy, 1950-59• Sukarno’s Guided Democracy, 1959-66• Soeharto’s New Order Period, 1966-98• Post-Soeharto Reformasi, 1998-Present• 24 years of democracy; 39 years of authoritarianism

Sukarno Period (1945-1967)

• Period of great political and regional instability as well as economic decline

• Sukarno was a great champion of anti-colonialism and ‘Third World’ diplomatic activism• Staged Asia-Africa conference in 1955• Leading role in formation of Non-Aligned Movement in

1961• Vehemently opposed to Dutch retention of Papua (1945-

1962) and British-sponsored creation of Malaysia in 1963

• Increasingly leftwards drift in Indonesian diplomacy during early to mid-1960s

‘Crush Malaysia’ billboard from 1964

Mao and Sukarno, 1964

Suharto Period (1966-1998)

• Period of political repression but rapid economic growth• Suharto implacably anti-communist and re-oriented

Indonesian foreign policy towards West• Courted US and Japan, as well as World Bank and IMF• Rejoined the UN in late 1960s• Continued NAM role; reluctant OIC participant

• Played key role in establishing ASEAN in 1967• Believed region should be united against external threat and

manipulation• Insisted on principle of non-intervention by ASEAN nations in

each others’ affairs (‘The ASEAN Way’) and decisions through consensus

• Strong APEC supporter

John Gorton and Soeharto

Soeharto chairing the 1994 NAM Conference in Jakarta

Post-Suharto Period (1998-Present)

• Four Presidents (Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati and SBY) but considerable consistency in foreign policy outlook• Habibie travelled little; domestically preoccupied• Abdurrahman constantly abroad but little system to his

foreign policy• Megawati was conservative and uneasy on diplomatic

stage

• All maintained priority on ASEAN but harmonious relations with West• Indonesian dominance of ASEAN greatly diminished during

this period; greater Malaysian and Singaporean influence

ASEAN Members – Dark BlueASEAN Observers – Light BlueASEAN +3 Members – RedEAST ASIA SUMMIT – Red and GreenASEAN Regional Forum – Red, Green and Orange

SBY(2004-Present) • Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has arguably been

Indonesia’s most effective president abroad• Eloquent speeches, dignified bearing, quick to grasp

policy details• Popular in West, among both governments and media• Lauded as model Muslim leader because a ‘moderate

democrat’

• Pretensions of being world statesman but tendency to over-reach• Offered to broker peace in Middle East and Korean

Peninsular• Failed attempts to mediate between Sunni and Shia

Indonesia’s Strategic Concerns

• Paramount concern for unity and territorial integrity of the nation• Powerful sense of vulnerability due to colonial

experience, geography and internal diversity• Indonesia’s bitter experience of Dutch

colonialism• Dutch seen as exploitative, harsh and paternalistic• Left enduring perception that large foreign powers

are inherently predatory and manipulative• This has fuelled Indonesia’s long non-aligned

orientation

Indonesia’s Strategic Concerns

• Indonesia is world’s largest archipelagic nation; 5000 kms from Aceh to Papua; some 18,000 islands• Attendant problems for archipelagos: porous borders,

difficulties in transport and communications, obstacles in administering and defending far-flung territories

• Fear of loss of islands: Malaysia’s successful case to sovereignty over Sidapan and Ligitan islands

• Sheer complexity of ethnic, religious and cultural make-up raises risk of disintegration

• History of separatism based on ethnic, religious or regional economic sentiment

Indonesia’s Strategic Concerns

• All these combine to give many Indonesians a spectre of insecurity• At times, can have almost paranoiac overtones• Discourses about other countries seeking to

break Indonesia up for their own purposes• To extract its wealth, to pursue religious or

strategic agendas• Australia, US, Britain, the Netherlands, Malaysia,

Singapore, Israel, China and Japan all placed, at different times, in this discourse of threats

Broader Indonesia Strategic Concerns

• Malaysian border disputes, especially re Ambalat• Increase in naval capability partly directed at

Malaysians• SBY specifically referred in cabinet to stopping

Malaysia pushing Indonesia around

• China’s South China Sea policies and impact upon ASEAN and regional stability• Phnom Penh impasse on ASEAN communique

• People smuggling (rather than boat people)• Terrorism and insurgency issues

Indonesian Suspicions of Australia

• Australia’s role in supporting Indonesian independence in 1945-49

• Irritation over Australia’s support for Dutch retention of West Irian/Papua in late 1950s and early 1960s

• East Timor destabilised relations from mid-1970s till early 2000s

• Papua now most sensitive issue in bilateral relationship

Sukarno and Critchley

Papua• Widespread view in Indonesian political and

military elite after 1999 that Australian govt actively supporting Papuan independence• BIN report on secret Cosgrove-led committee• TNI plans for ‘re-taking’ Papua from Australia• From 1999-c.2005 constant Indonesian demands

for Australia to affirm territorial integrity

• Papuan issue has eased in recent years but strong possibility of re-emergence due to rising separatist sentiment

Lombok Treaty• Partly intended to allay Indonesian fears that

Australia might support Papuan separatism (following granting of refugee status to Papuan independence activists)

• Key clause: [two sides promise] ‘not to … support or participate in activities … which constitute a threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity’

• Underlying tone of mistrust and suspicion rather than shared interests and concerns

• Unlikely to have significant impact on relations

Who is more important in bi-lateral

relationship?

‘Thank heavens for SBY!’

• SBY has been forgiving president regarding Australian missteps. Repeatedly responded helpfully and calmed domestic irritation.• Ban on live cattle exports• Boat people• Clemency for Schappelle Corby• US marines in northern Australia• Cocos Islands as US naval base

• ‘SBY is as good as it gets for Australia’

Bright prospects• Indonesia predicted to be major economic force in next

few decades• Numerous international agencies have Indonesia as one of

top ten economies by 2020-2025 (currently 18th)• Favourable demographics fuelling strong domestic demand• Now a trillion-dollar economy, a G20 member and IMF

donor

• Hal Hill: good times in Indonesia lead to bad policies• Some evidence of this already: growing sense that growth

is irreversible leading to less discipline• Premature sense of global importance and risk of over-

reaching

Contemporary politics• Indonesia consistently lauded as only ‘fully’

democratic nation in Southeast Asia and also one of few Muslim majority democracies in the world.• Praised as model of tolerance and pluralism

• Praise not entirely deserved• Indonesia experiencing some democratic regression:

elite forces driving process but staunch resistance from civil society and media (eg of Anti-Corruption Commission and changing election laws)

• Worsening record of religious intolerance (greater restrictions on religious expression and growing sectarianism)

Presidential elections• Significance of 2014 parliamentary and

presidential elections: victory to an autocratic or oligarchic leaders could accelerate anti-democratic trend; progressive leader could revive reform process

• Leading candidates are Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo – stark choice between them

• Prabowo is former 3-star general who was dismissed for human rights abuses• Highly articulate and intellectual but also ruthless• Led polls until late 2012

Jokowi• Elected governor of Jakarta in Sept 2012 after

successful stint as Surakarta mayor• Very unconventional but charismatic politician

with strong grassroots appeal• Changed dynamics of politics during 2012• Now leading most polls and seemingly has

momentum to win nomination

Post-SBY Australian-Indonesian Relations

• Possibility of much less congenial Indonesian president from 2014• Worst case scenario would be Prabowo Subianto

• Risks for bilateral relations in Australian assertiveness on boat people

• Indonesia punching below weight in international fora• ‘One million friends and zero enemies’ approach

leads to risk avoidance and minimal gains