Cristina Sabbioni Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) National Research Council (CNR), Italy International Conference New Indicators for a Better World Ravenna, 26 September 2013 INDICATORS FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON CULTURAL HERITAGE
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Cristina SabbioniInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC)
National Research Council (CNR), Italy
International Conference New Indicators for a Better World
Ravenna, 26 September 2013
INDICATORS FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
Salt crystallisationSalt crystallisationImpossibile v isualizzare l'immagine. Impossibile v isualizzare l'immagine.
Increase
Decrease
.…general increase.........Western Europe. Temperate fully humid climates: highest potential for salt damageand possible higher number of transitions in summer. Climates with dry summers:lesser frequency of transitions in summer (Grossi et al., 2011)
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
Biomass Accumulation on MonumentsImpossibile v isualizzare l'immagine.
Linked to temperature and precipitation
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2070-2099
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
Biomass Accumulation on Monuments
Linked to temperature and precipitationProjections valid for rural areas
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C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
Dry depositionImpossibile v isualizzare l'immagine.
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Acid Rain
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HNO3
H2SO4 NOx
SO2
Material dissolution due to the chemical attack induced by:
1. Clean rain (rain at pH 5.6 in equilibrium with 330 ppm CO 2 –karst effect)
2. Acid Rain (additional acidity due to anionic components, such as SO4
2-, NO3-……)
3. Dry deposition (gaseous pollutants occurring between precipitation events)
SURFACE RECESSION OF CARBONATE STONES
Material surface erosion due to the mechanical effect of rain
+
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
Lv was recalculated on a daily basis correcting for th e predicted temperature and the CO 2 increase from 330 in 1961 to 750 ppm in 2099 as suggested under A2 emission scenarios : L v ranges from 18.8 and 21.8 µm/m
L = 18.8 · R
SIMPLIFIED LIPFERT FUNCTION
Lv need to be corrected for future scenarios:
RAIN : PRECIPITATION NOT INCLUDING SNOW
Lv intercept term based on the solubility of CaCO 3 in equilibrium with 330 ppm CO 2 (µm/m) at 20 °°°°C
Lv intercept term based on the solubility of CaCO 3 in equilibrium with 330 ppm CO 2 (µm/m) at 20 °°°°C
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
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Sur
face
rece
ssio
n (µ
m/y
ear)
Lipfert function assumes that precipitation arrives only in liquid phase. The snow effect has been taken into account by allowing no recession for days with daily mean temperature less than 0 °°°°C.
CORRECTION FOR SNOW EFFECT
CO2 andsnow
corrections are
necessary for
evaluating the future change
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
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MAPPING SURFACE RECESSION
1961-1990
2070-2099Central Europe, UK, Iceland, Sandinavian Peninsula and
the northern Spain will experience the
highestsurface recession
(20-30 µm/year)
Absolute values of surface recession
General model HadCM3
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MAPPING SURFACE RECESSION
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30% increase
1961-1990
2070-2099
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MAPPING SURFACE RECESSION
Surface recession is expected to be higher in the areas thatwill be more affected by precipitation, that are the mountai nchains (Alps, Carpathians, Pyrenees) and the westerliesexposed areas, reaching values higher than 30 µm/year
2070-2099
Bonazza et al. Science of the Total Environment 20 09
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
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The Mediterranean Basin in general will continue to experience the highest level of risk.
In the near and far future thermal stress will thre aten more and more Central Europe.
THERMAL STRESS
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
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C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Limassol (Cyprus) , 1 November 2012Ravenna , 26 September 2013
GUIDELINES FOR THE PREVENTIVE CONSERVATION OF MONUMENTS LOCATED IN URBAN AREAS
- Identify and prioritize climate parameters and pollutants causingdeterioration , depending also on the sensitivity of materials and theenvironmental context in which monuments are located.
- Define risks of cultural heritage by adopting continuousenvironmental monitoring close to monuments as a valuable tool.Definition of risks allows heritage managers to single out t he prioritiesfor greater investment in preservation and funding of actio ns to reducethe cause.
- Promote actions aimed at reducing exposure of cultural heritage toharmful agents
- Mitigate the negative causes by regulation at regional and local levelsaimed at the reduction of pollutants, especially in developing urbanplans for a sustainable mobility.
C. Sabbioni, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Ravenna , 26 September 2013
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THANKSAlessandra BonazzaAdriana BernardiFrancesca BecheriniNadia GhediniPaola De NuntiisIzabela Joanna OzgaIrene NataliChiara BertolinValentina Turci Paolo MandrioliDario CamuffoFrancesca TittarelliOrlando Favoni