Indiana Water Conditions Webinar

Indiana Water Conditions Webinar

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

The purpose of this webinar is to discuss the current water conditions in Indiana

Presenters:• Al Shipe, National Weather Service• Drew Daily, IN Dept. Natural Resources• Jerry Unterreiner, IN Dept. Natural Resources• Bruno Pigott, IN Dept. Environmental Mgt.• Danielle McGrath, IN Utility Regulatory Commission• Joseph Kelsay, IN Dept. Agriculture• Joe Wainscott, IN Dept. Homeland Security

Questions

• If you have any questions, please select “raise your hand” on the GoToWebinar platform.

• If you are participating in this session via phone only, send your question(s) in email to [email protected].

Al ShipeNational Weather [email protected]

Drought Outlook• Rainfall• Streamflows• Historic Comparsion• Drought Outlook Based on History• NWS Drought Outlook• NWS OHRFC Streamflow Outlook • Rainfall Outlook into Autumn• Summary

Rainfall 2011 to 2012

– 2011 was the wettest on record in Indiana

– 2012 has been 6th driest on record in Indiana so far and worsening

Current Streamflows

– Much below normal streamflows most of state

Historic Drought 1895– Moderate Drought develops in April

– Palmer Drought Index becomes severe over most of state by July 1895, main impact central and north

Historic Drought 1934– Moderate to severe

drought already ongoing in Indiana in April 1934

– All of Indiana reaches extreme drought by July 1934 - much of country covered and all of corn-belt impacted

Historic Drought 1936– Abnormally dry

conditions in Indiana in April 1934

– All of Indiana reaches severe to extreme drought by July 1936 - all of corn-belt impacted

Historic Drought 1954– Severe to extreme drought ongoing in southern half of Indiana

– Severe to extreme drought in southern half of state, wetness forms far north

Historic Drought 1988– Minimal drought in

Indiana in April 1988

– Moderate to severe drought over all of Indiana by July 1988

Historic Drought 2012– Minimal drought in

Indiana in April 2012– Severe to extreme

drought over most of Indiana in July 2012

– Most similar to 1936 and 1934

Historic Droughts Compared to 2012

–Current drought in July 2012 compares very close to average of 1895, 1934, 1936, 1954 and 1988 droughts

Drought Outlook Based on History– Minimal drought

improvement in August based on historical droughts

– Some improvement likely by fall but moderate to severe drought could persist

Drought Outlook Into September

– Drought will persist in Indiana into September

– Probability is any improvement will be very gradual

NWS Ohio River Forecast Center August Streamflow Outlook

– Hydrologic models also confirm drought will persist in Indiana into late summer

– Any improvement will be minimal

Rainfall Outlook into Autumn– August to October

rainfall outlook by NWS climate models indicate risk is still there for below normal rainfall

– However, climate models indicate rainfall deficits may be not as extreme

Drought Outlook Summary

• A major drought will persist for the rest of summer in Indiana

• Based on weather models and historical data, some increase in rainfall is possible by autumn

• However, any improvement in drought conditions will be slow into autumn

Percent of Normal Rainfall 30 days vs. 90 days

Rainfall from Thursday through Sunday

Water Resources Outlooks– Subscribe to the Ohio River Forecast Center

Water Resources Outlook– Monthly Outlook talking about drought risk– Probability maps– Subscribe online at:

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/new?topic_id=USNWS_1048

Discussion: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/text/wro.txt

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

Drew DailyState Fire Supervisor

Indiana Department of Natural Resources Fire Division of Forestry

[email protected]

Indiana Division of ForestryIndiana Division of ForestryFire Control HeadquartersFire Control Headquarters

Fire Severity Indices• Fuel Moisture• Live (Woody & Herbaceous)• Dead (1 hr., 10 hr., 100 hr.,

1000 hr.)

• Drought Measure• Drought Monitor• Drought Forecast• Keetch-Byram Drought Index

(KBDI)• Palmer Drought Index

Fire Severity Indices cont.• Energy Release Component• Cumulative• Composite Fuel Moistures• Considers previous 7 days

• Burning Index• Indication of the contribution

that fire behavior makes to the effort to contain a fire.

• Experience / Observation

Departure from Average Greeness in %(source: WFAS)

Average

*15 year dataset

Precipitation Analysis

Current Fuels Indices1 hr. 10 hr 100 hr. 1000 hr. WoodyHerb.

Hardin Ridge 5 6 13 13 86 57

* Hardin Ridge Observations are a good “average” representation of conditions statewide.

Normal 11+ 13+ 17+ 21+ 200↓ 250↓

Indiana Wildland Fire Indiana Wildland Fire Outlook for July -AugustOutlook for July -August

Statewide: Increased Fire OccurrenceElevated Fire Intensity/SeverityIncreased Urban Interface Occurrence

Steuben – Posey Corridor:Increased Fire OccurrenceAbove Normal Intensity / SeverityProblematic Fire BehaviorExtended Contain/Control Time

Northeast CornerNortheast CornerProblematic Fire BehaviorProblematic Fire BehaviorAgricultural Fuel AvailabilityAgricultural Fuel AvailabilityExtended Containment TimeExtended Containment TimeProlonged Mop-Up / Resource Prolonged Mop-Up / Resource CommitmentCommitment

Southwest QuarterSouthwest QuarterProblematic / Extreme Fire BehaviorProblematic / Extreme Fire BehaviorSignificant Resource CommitmentSignificant Resource CommitmentEmerging Large Fire PotentialEmerging Large Fire Potential

Keys to Successfor Fire Personnel

• LCES– Lookouts– Communications– Escape Routes– Safety Zones

• Establish a Staging Area and Accountability

• Implement ICS From Onset• Request the Appropriate

Assistance– Equipment and Personnel

Indiana Division of ForestryIndiana Division of ForestryFire Control HeadquartersFire Control Headquarters

Bruno PigottAssistant Commissioner

Indiana Department of Environmental Management

Office of Water [email protected]

Jerry UnterreinerIndiana Department of Natural Resources

Water

Water Shortage Warning

• IDHS and IDNR have issued a Water Shortage Warning

• Drought conditions for all counties in the State of Indiana.

Water Shortage Warning

• Objectives– Prepare for a coordinated response– Imminent water shortage conditions– Potential water supply problems– Initiate concerted voluntary conservation

measures

Water Shortage Warning

• Objectives– Avoid or reduce shortages– Relieve stressed sources– If possible forestall the need for mandatory water

use restrictions

Water Shortage Warning

• Water Shortage Watch: lowest or mildest of the three drought advisory phases

• Water Shortage Warning is the second most severe stage

• Water Shortage Emergency is the most extreme condition

Water Shortage Warning

• Water Shortage Warning was previously issued on July 2, 2012 for 32 counties in northeast and southwest Indiana

Water Shortage Warning

• Water Shortage Warning stage goal is voluntary reduction in current use 10-15%

• Public water supply systems: immediately develop and update water shortage contingency plans

Water Shortage Warning

• Indiana’s Water Shortage Plan http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/files/watshplan.pdf

• Lists several voluntary water conservation measures and programs

• Water Shortage Warning, and can be found on pages 16 through 18

Water Shortage Warning

• Indiana’s Water Shortage Plan has “Indiana Suggested Model Ordinance”

• Developed by the Water Shortage Task Force to serve as a template for a Local Unit of Government

Water Shortage Warning

• A Word document version of the “Indiana Suggested Model Ordinance” can be found on the Internet at http://www.in.gov/dnr/3124.htm under the heading “Additional Links/Information or directly at http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/files/Model_ordinance_Final_Draft%207-2-07.doc.

Water Shortage Warning

• Questions• Mark Basch by e-mail at [email protected]

(317) 232-0154• Jerry Unterreiner at [email protected]

(317) 232-4222

Danielle McGrathPublic Information Officer

Indiana Utility Regulatory [email protected]

Joseph M. KelsayDirector

Indiana State Department of [email protected]

Week Nothing D0-D4 D1-D4 D2-D4 D3-D4 D4

July 10, 2012 0.00 100.00 99.40 80.15 29.77 0.40

USDA Fast TrackNearly automaticDrought intensity of at

least D2 (drought severe) for 8 consecutive weeks

Drought intensity value of D3 (Drought Extreme) or higher

Joe WainscottExecutive Director

Indiana Department of Homeland Securitywww.in.gov/[email protected]

Likely appropriate action is 10-15% water conservation measures

• Urge local officials to consider more stringent water use restrictions if conditions in their communities warrant.

• Consider extending burn bans and fireworks restrictions based on local conditions.

• IDHS is urging law enforcement re: lit cigarettes and fireworks

• Monitor water levels in towers for pressure/fire fighting

• Work with local media to get the word out• Heat: Also encourage electrical conservation• Remember at-risk populations– Encourage residents to check on neighbors– Cooling centers

For More Information

Questions can be sent to any agency with contact information provided

If you’re not sure who to ask, send your questions to [email protected]