www.ibef.org Indian Telecommunication Sector August 2007
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www.ibef.org
Indian
Telecommunication
Sector
August 2007
www.ibef.org
2
Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
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3
Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
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4
Indian Telecom Industry – A Lucrative Option
In recent years, the Indian telecom industry has witnessed phenomenal growth. A conducive business environment, favourable
demographic outlook and the political stability enjoyed by the country have contributed to the growth of the industry. India
achieved the distinction of having the world's lowest call rates (2–3 US cents), the fastest sale of million mobile phones (1
week), the world's cheapest mobile handset (USD 19) and the world's most affordable colour phone (USD 31).
Indian Telecom Industry
One of the fastest growing cellular markets in
the world in terms of number of subscriber
additions – 19.35 million in 3 months (April to
June 2007)
Expected to reach total subscriber base of
about 500 million by 2010 (i.e., more than
one phone for every household)
Annual growth rate of the telecom
subscribers – 47 percent (2006–07)
More GSM subscribers than fixed-line
subscribers
Indian Telecom Industry – Facts
Total telecom subscribers – 225.21 million
(June 2007)
Tele density – 19.86 percent (June 2007)
Number of new mobile subscribers added
every month – 7.34 million (June 2007)
ARPU for GSM – USD 6.6 per month
Telecom equipment market – USD 17,100
million (2006–07)
Handset market – USD 4,750 million (2006–
07)
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9 10 1115
20
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 ….. …. 2009-10
Reve
nues
(USD
billio
n)
Revenues of Indian Telecom Industry: 2002–07 (USD billion)
Telecom Services – India
Internet
Mobile ServicesBasic
Services
PMRTS
VSATsGMPCS
Radio
Paging
The Indian telecom services can be divided predominantly into basic, mobile and Internet services. It also comprises smaller segments,
such as radio paging services, Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs), Public Mobile Radio Trunked Services (PMRTS) and Global
Mobile Personal Communications by Satellite (GMPCS).
The growth witnessed in the mobile services and Internet services segments was higher as compared to other services, such as basic
services and radio paging services.
Registered an annual growth of 33 percent in 2006–07
The Indian telecom market generated revenues of approximately USD 20 billion in 2006–07. It registered a CAGR of
approximately 22 percent from 2002–03 to 2006–07. The CAGR from 2006–07 to 2009–10 is expected to stabilise at 21
percent. Apart from mobile telephony services, other value-added services are also gaining importance.
Telephony services (mobile and basic) and Internet services dominate the Indian telecom services
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Private players account for highest subscriber base growth in the basic telephony services segment
Basic Services
80%
9% 11%
74%
8%18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BSNL MTNL Other Private Players
As of 31 March 2005 As of 31 March 2006
Market Share* of Basic Service Operators in India (2005–06)
Basic services include fixed wireline and
wireless in local loop (WLL-fixed). In 2006–
07, basic services subscribers exceeded 50
million.
Fixed wireline services hold a major market
share of 83 percent in basic services.
BSNL and MTNL are market leaders in this
segment.
Although the government-owned BSNL
dominates the segment in terms of
subscriber base and market share, private
players have registered a notable growth.
WLL (F)17%
Fixed83%
Market Share* of Basic Services Segments in India (2006–07)
* In terms of Subscriber Base
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Mobile telecom services provide an unprecedented growth opportunity for companies
838
461
303
88Russia
China
India
USA
Minutes of Usage per Month – Mobile Services
The declining ARPU implies that India Inc. is tapping a large
market at the bottom of the pyramid by reducing tariffs; thereby,
enhancing affordability.
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007
AR
PU
(U
SD
per
mon
th)
GSM CDMA
ARPU* in India – Mobile Services
Mobile services have led to a spectacular growth in the Indian telecom industry. Currently, 12 players are active in this segment. The total
number of wireless subscribers escalated to 185.13 million at the end of June 2007, with a monthly addition of more than 6 million wireless
subscribers. Despite the decreasing ARPU*, the minutes of usage is on a rise, which provides impetus to the mobile services growth in India.
Despite a low teledensity of approximately 19 percent, India has
the second highest minutes of usage per month. This offers huge
growth opportunity to telecom companies.
* Average Revenues per User
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Number of mobile subscriber will propel the total subscriber base to 500 million by 2010
225.21206
140.398.4
7653
19.9
5.17.0
9.112.8
18.3
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002–03 2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08(As of June
2007)
Sub
scrib
ers
(in m
illion
)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Tel
eden
sity
(in
per
cent
)
Telecom Subscriber Base Teledensity
The telecom subscriber base has witnessed an
explosive growth; the additions in the current year
registered a growth of approximately 47 percent over
the previous year.
The subscriber base registered a CAGR of 40.4
percent for 2002–03 to 2006–07.
Telecom Subscriber Base and Teledensity in India
Market Share* of Wireless** Operators (As of June 2007)
Airtel
23%
Reliance
Communications
17%
TTSL
9%
BSNL
17%
Others
8%
Hutch
17%
Idea
9%
The state-owned BSNL was the second largest service provider after Bharti
Airtel (23 percent) in the Indian wireless telecom market with a market share of
approximately 19 percent for the year ending March 2007.
** Includes GSM, CDMA and WLL-F services* In terms of Subscriber Base
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GSM surpasses CDMA in number of additions to subscriber base
Market Share* of Wireless Operators (as of quarter ending March 2007)
TTSL, 35.9%
MTNL, 0.5%
BSNL, 8.0%
Syam Telilink, 0.2%
Reliance, 55.2%
HFCL, 0.3%
Market Share* CDMA Service Providers (as of quarter ending March 2007)
BPL, 0.9%
MTNL, 2.3%
Aircel, 4.6%
Spice, 2.3% Reliance, 2.8%
Idea, 11.6%
Hutch, 22.0%
BSNL, 22.8%
Bharti, 30.8%
Market Share GSM* Service Providers (as of quarter ending March 2007)
CDMA, 27%GSM, 73%
Reliance Communications and TTSL
dominates the Indian CDMA mobile services
segment.
Bharti Airtel dominates the GSM segment with a
market share of approximately 31 percent for the
year ending March 2007, followed by BSNL with
a share of approximately 23 percent subscribers.
* In terms of Subscriber Base
GSM surpasses CDMA segment by a large
margin in terms of subscriber numbers.
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GMPCS services were launched in India
in 1999. These services allow a
subscriber to communicate from any
point on earth through a handheld
terminal. Moreover, the telephone
number remains unchanged,
irrespective of the subscriber’s location.
Various other services emerged by leveraging the telecom services industry
Public Mobile Radio Trunked Services
PMRTS have not grown to their expected potential
in India. The high licence fee leaves a very thin
margin for services providers; thereby, inhibiting
its growth. About 31,000 subscribers are currently
availing this service in India from 12 different
operators.
In 1995, radio paging services emerged as a
promising segment in India. However, this
segment could not compete with cellular
services in general and SMS technology in
particular, and is currently shrinking. At
present, only four radio paging service
providers are present in the Indian market.
Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT)
The market for VSAT services increased by
5.73 percent during the quarter ending in
December 2006, and the segment had a total
subscriber base of 55,070. HCL Comnet is the
largest of the eight players functioning in the
market.
GMPCS*
Radio Paging
Other Telecom Services
* Global Mobile Personal Communication by Satellite
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The emergence of private players and new technologies have provided a strong
impetus to the growth of Internet and broadband services. The quality and
penetration of these services have undergone changes, with significant
improvement in the telecom infrastructure. The Internet subscriber base
registered a CAGR of 60 percent for the period 1997–98 to 2006–07.
Others, 14.0%
MTNL, 19.0%
BSNL, 45.2%
Bharti Airtel, 6.8%
Reliance, 6.1%
Sify, 8.9%
Market Share of Top Five Internet Service Providers (as of quarter ending March 2007)
0.14 0.280.95
3.043.42 3.64
4.55
5.55
6.94
9.27
0
2
4
6
8
10
1997
–98
1998
–99
1999
–00
2000
–01
2001
–02
2003
–03
2003
–04
2004
–05
2005
–06
2006
–07
Inte
rnet
Sub
scrib
ers
(In
milli
on)
Internet Subscribers: 1998–2007
BSNL and MTNL caters to more than two-thirds of Internet subscribers in India.
Private players are catching up fast due to increased penetration of Internet and
broadband services in India.
The telecom market will experience high penetration of Internet services with the
support from government policies and introduction of novel technologies in
India.
Broadband services to drive Internet penetration in India
India had 2.52 million broadband connections at the end of June 2007.
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Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
Telecom Handset Market
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Indian telecom handset market booming along with mobile services industry
1,6101,966
3,231
4,750
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07
US
D M
illion
Mobile Handsets Market in India: 2004–07 The Indian handset market grew at a phenomenal rate in 2006
with the sale of approximately 30–35 million handsets. It is
estimated that by 2011, sales of mobile handsets will reach
150 million units.
Competitive pricing has triggered the growth of coloured
handsets, which accounted for 65 percent of the market in
2006; whereas, the share of monochrome handsets has
declined to 35 percent.
Mobile phones are available at prices as low as USD 28–35.
Camera phones currently occupy 15 percent of the sales
volume.
ZTE4%
Nokia 53%
Motorola 11%
LG11%
Sony Ericsson 6%
Huaw ei1%Haier
1%
Samsung 6%
Others7%
The CDMA category is growing faster than the GSM
category. It captured 25 percent of the market volume in
2005–06 as against a 20.5 percent share in the
previous year.Market Share of GSM and CDMA Handset Manufacturers: 2006–07
Overall, Nokia has a market share of 53 percent; it
dominates the GSM mobile handsets with a market
share of approximately 73 percent.
LG dominates in the CDMA handsets market with a
market share of 60 percent.
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Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
www.ibef.org
15
World’s largest democracy Independent judiciary Skilled and competitive labour force Fifth largest telecom network in the world; second largest among the emerging economies after
China On an average, about 6–7 million new users added per month, making India the world’s fastest
growing wireless services market
Liberal Foreign Investment Regime–FDI limit increased from 49 percent to 74 percent; the rural
telecom equipment market is also open to large investments Among the countries offering the highest rates of return on investment
The large untapped potential in India’s rural markets–1.9 percent teledensity in rural markets as
compared to the national level of 18 percent Expected to become the second largest telecom market by 2010 The government promoting telecom manufacturing by providing tax sops and establishing
telecom specific Special Economic Zones Fully repatriable dividend income and capital invested in telecom equipment manufacturing
India: An Ideal Destination for Investments in Telecom Sector
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225.21206
140.398.4
7653
19.9
5.17.0
9.112.8
18.3
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002–03 2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 (asof June2007)
Sub
scrib
ers
(in m
illion
)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Tel
eden
sity
(in
per
cent
)
Telecom Subscriber Base Teledensity
The telecom subscriber base has witnessed an explosive growth; the additions in year 2006-07 registered a growth of
approximately 47 percent over the previous year.
The subscriber base witnessed a CAGR of 40.4 percent during 2002–03 to 2006–07.
The impressive growth in the subscriber base has resulted in a significant increase in teledensity. In 2006–07, India had a
teledensity of 18.3 percent, as compared to year 2005-06 figure of 12.80 percent, signifying a growth of 43 percent.
Increasing mobile subscriber numbers and low level of teledensity offers large opportunities to Indian companies
Even though the Indian telecom industry has exceeded a
subscriber base of 200 million, its teledensity is only 18
percent. Thus, the Indian market provides telecom service
providers with a large untapped potential due to the
country’s increasing population and its low teledensity. The
government has plans to raise teledensity to 40–45
percent by 2010; thereby, offering greater growth
opportunities for service providers.
Large number of additions in telecom subscribers
Low teledensity (depicting large untapped potential)
TelecomAdvantage
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Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
www.ibef.org
18
Indian Telecom Industry FrameworkIndian Telecom Industry Framework
Indian Government Bodies Independent Bodies
Wireless Planning and Coordination (WPC)
Department of Telecommunications
Telecom Commission
Group on Telecom and IT (GoT-IT)
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)
Handles spectrum allocation and management
DoT – Licensee and frequency management for telecom
Exclusive policy making body of DoT
Handles ad hoc issues of the telecom industry
Independent regulatory body
Telecom disputes settlement body
Regulatory Framework provides level playing field for all operators
They formulate various policies and pass laws to regulate the telecom industry in India.
They undertake various research activities and monitor the quality of service provided in the Indian telecom industry. They also provide various recommendations to improve the status of telecom operations in India.
The Department of telecommunications (Government of India) is the main
governing body for the industry.
Telephone Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) assists the Government of
India (GoI) to take timely decisions and introduce new technologies in the
country.
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Go-ahead to the CDMA technology
IND
IA
Private players were allowed in Value Added Services
National Telecom Policy (NTP) was formulated
1992
1994
1997
Independent regulator, TRAI, was established
NTP-99 led to migration from high-cost fixed license fee to low-cost revenue sharing regime
1999
2000
2002
BSNL was established by DoT
ILD services was opened to competition
Internet telephony initiated
Reduction of licence fees
2003
Calling Party Pays (CPP) was implemented
Unified Access Licensing (UASL) regime was introduced
Reference Interconnect order was issued
2004
Intra-circle merger guidelines were established
Broadband policy 2004 was formulated—targeting 20 million subscribers by 2010
2005
FDI limit was increased from 49 to 74 percent
Attempted to boost Rural telephony
2006
Number portability was proposed (pending)
Decision on 3G services (awaited)
2007
Department of Telecommunication (DoT) is the main body formulating laws and various regulations for the Indian telecom industry.
Various important regulations and laws have been passed in the Indian telecom industry post-liberalisation era
ILD – International Long Distance
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0
4
8
12
16
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Cellu
lar
Tariff (
INR
per
min
ute
)
0
30
60
90
120
150
Num
ber
of S
ubscribers
(millio
ns)
Cellular Tariff Total Cellular Subscribers
NTP 99
Telecom Tariff Order
WLL
UASL, CPP
Lowering of ADC
Important regulations and their impact on the Indian telecom industry
Access Deficit Charges (ADC)
ADC makes it mandatory for a service provider at the caller’s
end to share a percent of the revenue earned with the service
provider at the receiver’s end in long-distance telephony. This
subsidises the infrastructure costs of the service provider
enabling access at receiver’s end, especially because rental
for fixed-line services is low. Revision in the ADC regime is
expected to be followed by further tariff reduction in telecom
services.
Unified Access Service License Regime (UASL)
Unified licensing marked the end of the license regime in the Indian telecom industry. It helped in aligning convergent
technologies and services. The establishment of the Unified Access Licensing Regime (2003) eliminated the need for different
licenses for different services. Players are now allowed to offer both mobile and fixed-line services under a single license after
paying an additional entry fee. This does not take into account national and international long-distance services and Internet
access services.
Universal Service Obligation (USO)
The USO policy was laid along with NTP ’99 to widen the reach of telephony services in rural India. All telecom operators are
bound to contribute 5 percent of their revenues to this fund. This system was put in place to bridge the wide gap between urban
and rural teledensity, bringing it down from the current 31 percent. Initially, only basic service providers were under the purview of
USO. Later, its scope was expanded to include mobile services also. Although it increases the cost burden for the telecom
companies, USO helps in building the telecommunication infrastructure in the rural areas.
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Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
www.ibef.org
22
Vodafone purchased stake in Hutch from Hong Kong's Hutchison Telecom International for USD 11.08 billion.
Telekom Malaysia acquired a 49 percent stake in Spice Communications for USD 179 million.
Maxis Communications acquired a 74 percent stake in Aircel for USD 1.08 billion.
Ericsson to design, plan, deploy and manage Bharti Airtel network and facilitate their expansion in the rural areas, under a USD 2 billion contract.
116 129
680
521
100
300
500
700
2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07
FD
I (U
SD
milli
on)
Recent Deals in Telecom Sector
FDI in Telecom Sector
The Indian telecom industry has always attracted foreign
investors. In fact, the cumulative FDI inflow, during the August
1991 to March 2007 period, in the telecommunication sector
amounted to USD 3,892 million. It is the third largest sector to
attract FDI in India in the post-liberalisation era.
FDI calculation takes into account radio paging, cellular mobile
and basic telephone services in the telecommunication sector.
FDI and other M&A activities increasing in number
Reliance Communications Limited has sold a five percent equity share capital of its subsidiary Reliance Telecom Infrastructure Limited to international investors across the US, Europe and Asia. The deal was worth USD 337.5 million.
The Indian telecom industry has a 74 percent FDI limit in the
telecom services segment.
The GoI has permitted 100 percent FDI in manufacturing of
telecom equipment in India.
Major trends in the telecom sector is increasing M&A activity, de-regulation of telecom policies and growing interest of international investors.
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Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
www.ibef.org
24
Basic Services Operators
BSNL
MTNL
Major Players in different segments of Indian telecom industry
Reliance
TTSL
GSM Services Operators
Airtel
Vodafone
Idea
Reliance
TTSL
BSNL
CDMA Services Operators
Reliance
Internet Services Operators
BSNL
MTNL
Reliance
TTSL
BSNL
Airtel
TTSL – Tata Teleservices Ltd.
MOBILE SERVICES
BSNL – Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd.
MTNL – Mahanagar Telecom Nigam Ltd.
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Presentation Plan
1
5
Telecom Industry Overview
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
3 Regulatory Framework and its Impact
4
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector2
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6 Growth Avenues
www.ibef.org
26
India presents a host of opportunities for telecom companies
To reduce their network deployment costs, many service providers are considering
infrastructure sharing offers the following advantages: Improved service quality Increased affordability for customers Faster roll out of services in rural and remote areas Significant reduction in initial set up costs Increased environmental aesthetics Lower operating costs for service providers
Managed services is another segment that is attracting telecom companies.
On account of the rapidly growing subscriber base, service providers find it difficult
to manage their infrastructure and network management operations. In such
cases, they completely or partially outsource their infrastructure or network
management operations.
Virtual Private Network is a private data network
that provides connectivity within closed user groups via
public telecommunication infrastructure. Competition is
likely to heat up in the VPN segment as DoT has
relaxed the norms for private players.
Enterprise Telecom Services includes key
services, such as voice over Internet protocol (VoIP),
dedicated telecom communication systems, IT
infrastructure enabled unified communication services,
etc. Telecom service providers are increasingly targeting
enterprises by providing dedicated services and is
expected to witness major developments in near future.
Growth AvenuesGrowth
Avenues
Infrastructure Sharing Managed
Services
Virtual Private Network
Enterprise Telecom Services3G
WiMax
Value-Added Services
Rural Telephony
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Emerging technologies – 3G and WiMax to assist in penetration of telecom services in India
WiMAX has been one of the most significant developments in wireless communication in the recent
past. Since this mode of communication provides network access in inaccessible locations at a speed
of more than 4 Mbps, it is expected to be a major factor in driving telecom services in India, especially
wireless services. Thus, it will lead to the increased use of telecom services, Internet, value-added
services and enterprise services. WiMAX is expected to accelerate economic growth and assist in
providing better education, healthcare and entertainment services. It is estimated that India will have 13 million WiMAX subscribers by 2012. Aircel is the pioneer in WiMAX technology in India. The state-owned player, BSNL, aims to connect 74,000 villages through WiMAX. Bharti, Reliance and VSNL have acquired licenses in the 3.3GHz range to utilise the opportunities
offered by this domain.
The Indian government plans to auction the spectrum for 3G services by inviting bids from
domestic as well as foreign players, and creating a competitive environment that offers better
services to consumers. Therefore, the 3G spectrum is among the major investment
opportunities and growth drivers of the telecom industry. The immense potential for 3G is reflected by the 30–40 percent annual growth in Value-
Added Services. Cell phone manufacturers are striving to develop USD 100 priced 3G handsets for the Indian
market. India expects to replicate its 2G growth in 3G services.
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Value-Added Services and Rural Telephony holds large market potential in India
Others (MMS etc.), 3%
Game & Data, 7%Person to
Application & Application to Person SMS,
15%
Ringtone Dow nload, 35%
Person to Person SMS, 40%
Value-Added Services in India (2006–07)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007At Year Ending March
Tele
dens
ity (%
)Urban Total Rural
Urban Rural Teledensity in India
The VAS industry was worth USD 632 million in
2006–07. The industry is estimated to grow by 60
percent in 2007–08 and become an USD 1,011 million
opportunity.
As the government targets to increase rural teledensity
from the current 2 percent to 25 percent by 2012, rural
telephony will require major investments. This
segment will boost the demand for telecom services,
equipment, Internet services and other value-added
services; thereby, offering great market opportunities
for telecom players.
The VAS industry is currently focussing on the entertainment sector, such as the Indian film
industry and cricket; however, there is scope for growth in other avenues as utility-based
services, such as location information and mobile transactions.
Rural Telephony
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DISCLAIMER This presentation has been prepared jointly by the India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) and Evalueserve.com Pvt. Ltd., EVALUESERVE (‘authors’). All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is owned by IBEF and the Authors. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of the Author’s and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. The Author and IBEF neither recommend or endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed in this presentation. Neither the Author nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.
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