Indian Ocean Maritime Security Threat Update - Intertanko · Indian Ocean Maritime Security Threat Update. 2 ... - Given the number of GCC members in CMF this resolution could impact

1

Captain W.J. Nault, USNChief of Staff

Combined Maritime Forces

Indian Ocean Maritime Security Threat Update

22Combined Maritime Forces Ready Together

The Importance of the Indian Ocean

Suez-3.8m bbl/day

BAM-3.4m bbl/day

SOH-18m bbl/day

Asia/Pacific-11.2m bbl/day

• 2/3 of the world’s major choke points• 55% of the world’s population• 36% of the world’s economy• 64% of the world’s trade flow• 70% of the world’s trade flow projected

for 2030 will transit through or intersect this region


Event Iceberg

IUU Fishing

Trafficking in Persons

WeaponsIvory

Al ShabaabAQAP

Narcotics

Mass Migration

Robbery

Failed State

DAESH

Civil War

Sugar

Piracy Event Terrorist Event

Charcoal

Potential Threats to Maritime Security

Environmental Neglect

Unknown???


Non-State Threats to Maritime Security

Heroin

Heroin

Hash

Piracy

Weapons

Smack TrackCharcoal

Migration

Refugees

IUU Fishing

ISIS

Al-Shabbab

Taliban

AQAP

AQIS

Weapons

Smuggling


CounterTerrorism

ROK SGP THA DNK TUR JPN

PAKYEM

BAH KUWUAE

AUS GBRUSANZL

FRA CANKSAGCC

MSOCounter Piracy

GREPORBEL

JDNSEYMLSPHINORNLGERESPITL

CMF National Mandates


CMF Governing UNSCR’s

UNSCR Subject Matter Key Points

1373 (2001) International Terrorism - Calls on States to work together to prevent and suppress terrorist acts including financing - Provides an overarching legal basis for CTF 150 and 152 operations

1814, et al (2008/9) Somali Piracy - Relates to acts of piracy and armed robbery against vessels off the coast of Somalia- Affirms the UNCLOS as the legal framework applicable to combating piracy- Permits entry into Somali TTW to counter pirates for 6 months- Calls upon States, regional and international organizations to take part actively in the fight against piracy and armed robbery at sea off the coast of Somalia

1988 (2011) Taliban - Calls upon States to take action against the Taliban actions including supporting acts or activities.- Forms the basis for CTF 150 counter-narcotics operations

2182(2014)2244 (2015)

Charcoal and weapons (Somalia) - Condemns flows of weapons and ammunition supplies to and through Somalia - Authorizes for a period of 12 months for Member States to implement the arms embargo on Somalia and the charcoal ban - Includes inspection of vessels inside Somali TTWs- First UNSCR which refers to CMF

2216 (2015) Weapons Embargo on Yemen - Condemns transfer of weapons to designated Yemeni forces - Only empowers enforcement if weapons are coming from or through a Member State’s territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft. - Given the number of GCC members in CMF this resolution could impact upon operations- The UN Panel of Experts has sought CMF involvement in enforcing this resolution


United Nations & UNODC

• Narcotics and Legal Finish

• Compendium of Drug Seizures

• CMF now considered the UN’s technical “Maritime Expert”

• CMF has been called to update UNODC, UNSC

• Close and ongoing cooperation with the Somalia- Eritrea Monitoring Group (SEMG)

• Growing cooperation with the Al Qaida-TalibanMonitoring Team (AQTMT)


Indian Ocean Forum on Maritime Crime (IOFMC)

UN sponsored “umbrella” organization chartered by the United Nations (UNODC) to consider the range of maritime security challenges in the region.

IOFMC “Pillars”üHeroine TraffickingüHuman Trafficking

üWildlife/ Forest Crime (e.g., ivory)

ü Charcoal

Potential Future PillarsIllegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing (IUU)

Weapons smugglingIllegal Dumping

TerrorismPiracy

Each Pillar will stand up a technical and political/ strategic working group


Outreach

Communication with the merchant industry and civilian partners remains a strategic priority for CMF.

Share Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE)Marine Information Exchange Vessel Operators Meeting (MIEVOM)

Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS)OPV Conferences

Maritime Security Events


Piracy


Counter-Piracy Success

Piracy business model

suppressed

BMP/AST

Military Commitment Legal Finish

The “Big Question”

What happens if weremove a leg of the stool?


Piracy Resurgence

Capability

Intent Opportunity

ü SupressedONLY

❌Observed

❌Assessed to persist


A History of Somalia Piracy

Last piracy attack.Last successful piracy.


Piracy Trends (2011 - 2015)


Piracy Incidents and False Alarms


Current Intel Assessment on PiracyPhysical Environment:• NE monsoon influencing weather throughout

AOR • Favorable conditions around GOA & HOA with

marginal/ unfavorable conditions in SB

Shipping Routes:• High traffic in BAM, GOA and GOO• Medium traffic in SB

Assessment based on Recent Data / Information:• No piracy attack reported in past year

• Fewer skiffs/ whalers encountered at sea but extensive IUU fishing activity continues off Somali coast. Possible concealment of piracy preparations among legitimate activity cannot be ruled out.

• Foreign IUU FVs can also trigger tensions between local authorities & fishermen.


Recent Suspicious Incidents

FV SIRAJ

Date Taken: 23 MarDate Grounded: 15 Sep

FV JABER

Date Taken: 23 MarDate Escaped: 27 Aug

FV MUHAMADDI

Date Taken: 22 NovDate Escaped: 28 Nov


PPN

HHN

Active Pirate Networks


HRA Reduction


65 E

60 E

55E

50 E

45 E

00 N

05 N

10 N

15 N

20 N

70 E

75 E

40 E

25N

Only registered vessels not in port nor at anchorage

50%50%

59%

41%

60%

40%22%

78%

87%

13%

39%

61%

PAST

NO PAST

Armed Security 2015


Arabian Sea Indian Coast GOAPAST NO-PAST Total PAST NO-PAST PAST NO-PAST Total PAST NO-PAST PAST NO-PAST

jan 1466 2161 3627 40.4% 59.6% 998 3149 4147 24.1% 75.9% 61% 39%feb 1294 1827 3121 41.5% 58.5% 741 2611 3352 22.1% 77.9% 63% 37%march 1566 2438 4004 39.1% 60.9% 944 3384 4328 21.8% 78.2% 63% 37%april 1426 2649 4075 35.0% 65.0% 991 3566 4557 21.7% 78.3% 57% 43%may 1588 2794 4382 36.2% 63.8% 1017 4999 6016 16.9% 83.1% 59% 41%june 1715 2946 4661 36.8% 63.2% 1094 4096 5190 21.1% 78.9% 58% 42%july 1775 2848 4623 38.4% 61.6% 966 3903 4869 19.8% 80.2% 60% 40%august 1536 2570 4106 37.4% 62.6% 888 3348 4236 21.0% 79.0% 59% 41%september 1656 2887 4543 36.5% 63.5% 981 3768 4749 20.7% 79.3% 59% 41%october 1228 2449 3677 33.4% 66.6% 747 3236 3983 18.8% 81.2% 59% 41%november 1429 2933 4362 32.8% 67.2% 968 3785 4753 20.4% 79.6% 57% 43%december 1054 2278 3332 31.6% 68.4% 660 3109 3769 17.5% 82.5% 54% 46%

MSCHOA - PAST 2015

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%

PAST 2015

Arabian Sea PAST Indian Coast PAST

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

GOA PAST 2015

- 5.0%


66.0%68.0%70.0%72.0%74.0%76.0%78.0%80.0%82.0%84.0%

Arabian Sea / Indian Coast 2015

Arabian Sea registered Indian Coast registered

- 5.1%

- 4.6%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

GOA 2015 registered

MSCHOA Registration 2015Arabian Sea Indian Coast GOA

registerednot-

registered Total registerednot-

registered registerednot-

registered Total registerednot-

registered registerednot-

registeredjan 3627 871 4498 80.6% 19.4% 4147 892 5039 82.3% 17.7% 92% 8%feb 3121 731 3852 81.0% 19.0% 3352 798 4150 80.8% 19.2% 93% 7%march 3751 1037 4788 78.3% 21.7% 4036 1114 5150 78.4% 21.6% 93% 7%april 4075 1087 5162 78.9% 21.1% 4557 1224 5781 78.8% 21.2% 90% 10%may 4382 1199 5581 78.5% 21.5% 4999 1130 6129 81.6% 18.4% 92% 8%june 4661 1225 5886 79.2% 20.8% 5190 1349 6539 79.4% 20.6% 92% 8%july 4623 1171 5794 79.8% 20.2% 4869 1121 5990 81.3% 18.7% 91% 9%august 4106 1144 5250 78.2% 21.8% 4236 971 5207 81.4% 18.6% 91% 9%september 4543 1500 6043 75.2% 24.8% 4749 1141 5890 80.6% 19.4% 90% 10%october 3677 1116 4793 76.7% 23.3% 3983 1120 5103 78.1% 21.9% 90% 10%november 4214 1466 5680 74.2% 25.8% 4576 1331 5907 77.5% 22.5% 90% 10%december 3332 1319 4651 71.6% 28.4% 3769 1360 5129 73.5% 26.5% 91% 9%


2015

Merchant Routing2013

12.00

12.50

13.00

13.50

14.00

14.50

15.00

15.50

16.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

RegistrationAverage SpeedActual AverageSpeed by LRIT


Somali Piracy Prisoners - KenyaStatus Detained By Number of Prisoners (Sentence) Total

Convicted Denmark 24 164 Tried147 Convicted

99 Remaining in Kenya

48 Post-sentence repatriations10 in 2011 7 to Puntland in November 2013 7 to Puntland in January 2014 7 + 11 to Puntland in February 20146 to Puntland in August 2015

EUNAVFOR (Spain) 4 (7 years)

EUNAVFOR (Germany) 9 (5 years)

United States 7 (4 years)

United States 9 (5 years)

EUNAVFOR (Sweden) 7 (7 years)

EUNAVFOR (Germany) 7 (20 years)

EUNAVFOR (France) 11 (5 years)*

United States 10 (8 years) Sentence complete

United Kingdom 8 (10 years)

EUNAVFOR (Germany) 7 (5 years) Sentence complete


EUNAVFOR (France) 11(20 years)

United Kingdom 6 (5 years)

EUNAVFOR (Spain) 7 (4.5 years) Sentence complete

EUNAVFOR (Italy) 9 (7 years)

Denmark 4 (3 ½ years)

Acquitted United States 17 17 Acquitted17 Repatriated in December 2010

Courtesy of the UNODC


Somali Piracy Prisoners - SeychellesStatus Detained By Number of Prisoners (Sentence) Total

On Remand EUNAVFOR (France) 5 5 On remand

Convicted Denmark 4 (3 x 24 years, 1 x 16 years, 2 x acquitted on appeal)

142 Tried138 Convicted

17 Remaining in Seychelles

96 Prisoner transfers17 to Somaliland Mar 1212 to Somaliland Dec 125 to Puntland Dec 12

25 to Puntland Mar 138 to Puntland May13

11 to Puntland Oct 13 18 to Puntland March 14

12 Post-sentence repatriations1 to Puntland Aug 125 to Puntland Oct 13 3 to Puntland May14 2 to Puntland Oct 141 to Mogadishu Dec 15

Denmark 4 (1 x 21 years, 3 x acquitted on appeal)

Netherlands 6 (5 x 24 years, 1 x 12 years) (1 x acquitted on appeal and 5 sentence reduced to 12 years)

Netherlands 11 (6 x 16 yrs, 3 x 5 yrs, 1 x 4 yrs, 1 x 1.5 yrs)

EUNAVFOR (France) 11 (6 years)


EUNAVFOR (Netherlands) 9 (7 x 6 years), 2 x juvenile acquitted (7 x acquitted on appeal)

Seychelles Coastguard 11 (10 years), 10 (20 years), 6 (24 years),5 (18 years), 9 (8 x 22 years, 1 x juvenile acquitted)

United Kingdom 7 (6 x 7 years, 1 x 2 years)

United Kingdom 14 (3 x 2.5 years, 8 x 12 years, 1 x pleaded guilty 10 years, 1 x juvenile time served, 1 x juvenile acquitted)

United States 15 (13 x 18 years, 2 x 4 years)

Denmark 9 (8 x 14 years, 1 x 3 years)


Acquitted United KingdomSeychelles Coastguard EUNAVFOR (Netherlands)DenmarkDenmarkEUNAVFOR (Netherlands)Netherlands

11 23271

17 Acquitted17 Repatriations post acquittal 1 to Puntland Aug 121 to Puntland May 142 to Puntland Sept 143 to Puntland Feb 152 to Puntland July 158 to Mogadishu Dec 15

Seychelles (cont’d)

MauritiusStatus Detained By Number of Prisoners (Sentence) Total

Awaiting Retrial

EUNAVFOR (France)

12 12


Other Maritime Threats –

A Sample


Smuggling Activity 2014 -2015


Narcotics Seizures (July 15-Jan 16)4FV BALUCHISTAN

COIFVB – 13 Dec 2015Boarded by MEL216KG HEROIN

4

FV AL SADIQUI 2COIFVB – 26 Dec 2015Boarded by MEL118KG HEROIN

5

51

FV AL MEERCOIFVB – 30 Sep 2015Boarded by MEL427KG HEROIN

2

FV NAVSIRCOIFVB – 24 Sep 2015Boarded by MELWeapons

1

2

3

FV AL OMIRCOIFVB – 30 Nov 2015Boarded by MEL140KG HEROIN

3

6

6

FV MANSOURCOIFVB – 29 JAN 2016Boarded by MEL65KG HEROIN


Narcotics Seizures

Heroin:2012: 1000 kg/ $480 M 2013: 2044 kg/ $987 M 2014: 3399 kg/ $1.721 B 2015: 1700 kg/ $1.082 B

Hashish:2012: 816 kg/ $11 M2013: 6249 kg/ $82 M2014: 18490 kg/ $244 M2015: 0 kg

Four Year Total: 25555 kg

$337 Million

Four Year Total: 8143 kg

$3.323 Billion


Heroin Seizures

Source: UNODC

CMF

(Total estimated production)


Narcotics Concealment


• Popular in Gulf States• Provides income to Al-

Shabaab• Environmental devastation

in Somalia• Export banned by UN

(UNSCR 2182 / 2244)

Charcoal Update


MSV RAJ MILAN Boarded: 16 Mar 15 24,721 bag from Kismayo, Somalia to Dubai, UAEOutcome: Information relayed to Dubai

Charcoal Boardings

MSV AL SAHEBABoarded: 10 JUL 15 30,000 25kg bags from Kismayo, Somalia to Dubai, UAEOutcome: Information relayed to UN SEMG

MSV VIRAT IBoarded: 11 JUL 15 26,500 25kg bags likely from Somalia but reported as Dar EsSalam, Tanzania to Sarjah, UAEOutcome: Information relayed to UN SEMG

MV AL SAHEBA

MV VIRAT I

UNCLASSIFIED


MV NASIR – 25 September 2015 HMAS MELBOURNE

USS FORREST SHERMAN

Weapons Seizure


- Evolve the strategic future of CMF to address the range of MSO- Expansion of CMF nation mandates- New members- Expand counter-terrorism remit- Key Leader Engagement- Refine weapon seizure policies and procedures- Partner with UNODC to pursue narcotics legal finish- Representation on IOFMC pillar WG’s- Monitor EUNAVFOR mandate status- Maritime Situational Awareness “way ahead”- Work with UN to develop operationally functional UNSCR’s- Monitor and assist FGS maritime capacity development

Priorities Moving Forward

Indian Ocean Maritime Security Threat Update - Intertanko · Indian Ocean Maritime Security Threat Update. 2 ... - Given the number of GCC members in CMF this resolution could impact

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