1 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Sustainable Development for a Low-Carbon Society Analysis for India P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presentation at ICSS 2009 Tokyo, February 5-7, 2009 Presented By: Vaibhav Chaturvedi Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India •Development paths underpin the baseline and stabilization scenarios •Three aspects of Sustainable Development •Economic: includes cost and overall welfare across various sectors •Environmental: includes linkages with the local issues like air, water, land and biodiversity •Social: includes issues like gender, equity, governance, education and health •Climate change through sustainable development lens “For a development path to be sustainable over a long period, wealth, resources, and opportunity must be shared so that all citizens have access to minimum standards of security, human rights, and social benefits, such as food, health, education, shelter, and opportunity for self-development “ (Reed, 1996 as quoted in the IV Assessment Report, IPCC, 2007) Sustainable Development and Climate Change Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India India Base Case: 2050 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Analytical Framework End Use Demand Model DATABASES - Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints AIM CGE Model ANSWER-MARKAL Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model End Use Demand Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB) Integrated Modelling Framework
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Sustainable Development for aLow-Carbon Society
Analysis for India
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India
Presentation at ICSS 2009Tokyo, February 5-7, 2009
Presented By: Vaibhav ChaturvediIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
•Development paths underpin the baseline and stabilization scenarios
•Three aspects of Sustainable Development•Economic: includes cost and overall welfare across various sectors•Environmental: includes linkages with the local issues like air, water, land
and biodiversity•Social: includes issues like gender, equity, governance, education and
health
•Climate change through sustainable development lens
“For a development path to be sustainable over a long period, wealth, resources, and opportunity must be shared so that all citizens have access to
minimum standards of security, human rights, and social benefits, such as food, health, education, shelter, and opportunity for self-development “
(Reed, 1996 as quoted in the IV Assessment Report, IPCC, 2007)
Sustainable Developmentand Climate Change
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
India Base Case: 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Analytical Framework
DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
Strategic Database
(SDB
)
Integrated Modelling FrameworkDATABASES
-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
Strategic Database
(SDB
)
DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
Strategic Database
(SDB
)
Integrated Modelling Framework
2
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
India: Demographic TransitionPopulation (Million)
Labor Force (Million)
358
555
849
1183
14491593
0
400
800
1200
1600
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
133210
360
595
795915
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year: 2000 Pop: 1021 Million
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Age
Populat ion (million)
Female Male
15 -
60 y
ears
0
Male Female
18-6
2 Yr
s
80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80Population (Million)
Age
Pop: 1593 MillionYear: 2050
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Age
Populat ion (mil l ion)
Female Male
15 -
60 y
ears
Male Female
18-6
2 Yr
s
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80Population (Million)
Age
2.22%
2.15%
1.67%
1.02%
0.47%
2.30%
2.74%
2.54%
1.46%
0.70%
Growth Rate
Growth Rate
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Base Scenario AssumptionsBase Scenario
1. GDP • Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50• 2050 Economy: 23 times larger than 2005
2. Population • 2000: 1021 Million• 2050: 1593 Million
Base Case assumes global 650 ppmv CO2e stabilization
CO2 Emissions: Global and India
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories
Base Case
Conventional Society
Sustainable Society
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2020 2030 2040
Pric
e C
O2
(US
$/tC
O2)
2050
CO2 Price
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Modeling for Sustainability Vision:• Restructure Private and Public Choices and Behavior• Focus on Long-term Drivers for Bifurcation• Aligning long-term market signals for co-benefits• Multiple Instruments
5
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Urban Choices
• Land-use Planning
• Building Choices
• Infrastructures
• Service Networks
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Choice of AutomobilesRush Hour Traffic in India
Rising Incomes and Small Cars
Tata Nano: $2500 QQ: $4000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Choice of Transport modesBus Rapid Transport System
Public Transport: Metro Rail
Technologies for Train Corridors
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Dematerialization
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
Cement
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Steel
Conventional Development
Sustainable SocietyD
eman
d (M
illio
n To
n)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steel
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Conventional DevelopmentConventional Development
Sustainable Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Paper
Dem
and
(Tril
lion
Lum
en h
rs)
0
1000
2000
3000
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
Lighting
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
6
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of LCS Transition through Sustainable Development
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Alternate Choices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
tSO
2
Base Case
Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax
Conventional Path + High Carbon Price
Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Regional Co-operationCoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia
Proposed Gas PipelinesExisting LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin
Gas Pipelines under construction
Proposed Gas Basin¨
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Conclusions: An Alternate Scenario Storyline
and Modeling Framework
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Sustainable Low Carbon Development
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock-ins
Long-term Vision
Win/Win OptionsShared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
• Changing Behavior and Technology RD&D/ Transfer are key to LCS transition
• Moving from Margin to Mainstream– Development vision matters to LCS transition
– Managing climate change at the margin is costly, risky, and unsustainable
• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’: – Modeling policy myopia, coordination failures, information asymmetry with focus on
moving to efficient frontier and pushing the frontier
– Modeling to gain co-benefits as a positive-sum game (shift modeling focus to co-operation rather than competition)
– Focus on Drivers of Long-term Energy and Environment Future
• Even under LCS transition through sustainability, exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization and adaptation will be needed, but their costs and risks shall be much lower