1 INDIA NATIONAL REPORT ON DISASTER RISK, POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP Disaster Risk Reduction and Poverty : Case study of Orissa and Tamil Nadu Final Review Meeting: Asia – Bangkok India Report November 5, 2008
1
INDIA NATIONAL REPORT ON DISASTER RISK, POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP
Disaster Risk Reduction and Poverty : Case study of Orissa and Tamil NaduFinal Review Meeting: Asia – Bangkok
India ReportNovember 5, 2008
2
Introduction
Chapter 1 – Overall hazard vulnerability & poverty in India, Framework, Methodology
Chapter 2 – Mapping socio-economic vulnerabilities
Chapter 3 – Mapping of Hazard RiskChapter 4 – Mapping of disaster impactsChapter 5 – Vulnerabilities and Disaster
LinkagesChapter 6 – Way forward
3
NSDP and Per Capita NSDP GR (1993-94 to 2004-05)
NSDP Per Capita NSDP
Orissa 5.15 3.74
Tamil Nadu 5.52 4.22
India 7.07 5.58
India Per Capita GDP ($PPP) (2006) = US$ 3,452
India GDP at Current Prices, 2005-06 = Rs. 25,716
Tamil Nadu Per Capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) (2005-06, at current prices) = Rs. 29,958 (1.16 times of India)
Orissa Per Capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) (2005-06, at current prices) = Rs. 17,299(0.67 times of India)
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GDP Composition
Composition of NSDP - Orissa
19.58
44.5935.83
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Composition of NSDP - Tamil Nadu
56.04
13.96
30.00
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Composition of GDP - India
52.41
24.78
22.81
Primary Secondary Tertiary
In Orissa 36% GDP from primary sector & just 20% from secondary sector
In India, just 22% GDP from primary sector & 25% from secondary sector
In Tamil Nadu, 30% GDP from secondary & just 14% GDP from primary
Jobless growth in India primarily because of relatively small secondary sector
5
Employment & Urbanization
Just 27.5% population in India living in urban areas Orissa, just 15% living in urban areas Tamil Nadu 44% living in urban areas
59% of working population in India employed in primary sector when its GDP share is only 22%
64% or working population in Orissa employed in primary sector, when its GDP share is 36%
Inspite of high urbanization level, 46% of workers in Tamil Nadu engaged in primary sector with income share of 14%
India in general and both states in particular have stress in rural economy
6
Comparing Indian and international poverty lines
Poverty Lines At Current Prices (in Per Capita Per Month)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
19
93
-94
20
04
-05
Year
Rs
.
India - Rural India - Urban Orissa - RuralOrissa - Urban Tamil Nadu - Rural Tamil Nadu - UrbanGlobal
7
Poverty Profile - India
Incidence of poverty in India, the Head Count Ratio is 28.7% for rural and 25.7% for urban in 2004-05
220.9 millions in rural and 80.80 millions in urban areas live below the officially defined poverty line in 2004-05
Total 301.72 million population living below poverty line in 2004-05
Just 18.65 million population have come out of poverty from 1993-94 to 2004-05 (in last 10 years)
Slowing down of poverty decline is inspite of high economic growth rate in this period.
Growth is accompanied by increasing inequalities
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Rural Poverty - IndiaIncidence and Changes in Rural Poverty in States
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
WB
Ors
Bih
UP
Asm
MP
JK
Har
Pu
n
HP
Gu
j
Mah
Raj
TN
Kar
Ker
AP
IND
States
Head
Co
un
t R
ati
o1993-94
2004-05
Change in poverty(% points)
There is regional dimension to rural poverty. Eastern states have the highest rural poverty followed by western states & southern states
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Poverty Among SC, ST and All - Rural
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
WB
Ors
Bih
MP
Ker
Mah
TN
UP
Kar
Asm
AP
Guj
JK
Raj
Har
Pun
HP
IND
States
ST SC All
Perc
enta
ges
Rural poverty also has social dimension; The HCR among Scheduled Tribes (STs) is 48% and among Scheduled Castes (SC) is 35% in 2004-05
10
Poverty in Orissa
47% rural population below official poverty line 44% urban population below official poverty line Increase in urban poverty from 41% to 44% in
1993-94 to 2004-05 period Rural poverty gap index value 12.1 and urban PG
index value 14.1 in 2004-05 Gini coefficient increased in rural from 24.6 to 28.5 Gini coefficient in urban increased from 30.7 to
35.4 Poverty among SCs is 50% and among STs is 77% SCs 16.5% of state’s population and STs 22.1%
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Poverty in Tamil Nadu
23% rural population below official poverty line 22% urban population below official poverty line Decrease in urban poverty from 40% to 22% in
1993-94 to 2004-05 period Rural poverty gap index value 3.7 and urban PG
index value 5.3 in 2004-05 Gini coefficient increased in rural from 31.2 to 32.2 Gini coefficient in urban increased from 34.8 to
36.1 Poverty among SCs is 30% and among STs is 31% SC 19% of state’s population and STs just 1%
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IMRs - Manifestation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Orissa Tamil Nadu India
Male
Female
PersonOrissa Tamil Nadu India
13
Malnourishment Among Children
010
2030
4050
Orissa TamilNadu
India
% Stunted
NFHS - 1
NFHS - 2
NFHS - 3
0
51015
2025
Orissa TamilNadu
India
% Wasted
NFHS - 1
NFHS - 2
NFHS - 3
0102030405060
Orissa TamilNadu
India
% Underweight
NFHS - 1
NFHS - 2
NFHS - 3
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Hazard prone areas of India
Of the 35 states and union territories, 27 area hazard prone
241 districts are multi-hazard prone
May to November months are the most hazard-prone
Disaster Vulnerable States/ Regions
1 Tsunami* Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Pondicherry and Andaman & Nicobar Islands
2 Earthquake Across the country with moderate – high intensity (over 65% of the areas of India is vulnerable to earthquake)
3 Cyclones Coastal areas – particularly in East coast & Gujarat (8% of area)
4 Floods Indo-Gangetic plains and Brahamaputra basin (approx comprises 40 million hectares prone to floods)
5 Droughts A slow disaster across the country (approx 68% of cropped area affected)
6 Forest Fires Himalayan Forests
7 Landslides Sub-Himalayan region & western Ghats in particular
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Annual trends of Disaster - Orissa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Num
ber
of E
vent
s
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Annual Distribution of Climatic Disasters (1998-2006)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000N
umbe
r of
Eve
nts
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Annual Distribution of Other Than Climatic Disasters (1998-2006)
Higher incidence reported after 2003 in Orissa because of better reporting
Question of quality of data
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Annual Disaster Trend – Tamil Nadu
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Dat
a C
ard
s
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Annual Distribution of Climatic and Water Related Disasers (1998-2006)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dat
a C
ard
s
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Annual Distribution of Geological Disasters (1998-2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Data
Card
s
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Annual Distribution of Other Disasters (1998-2006)
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Literacy Rate, 2004-05
Male Female
Rural
Orissa 62.5 46.0
Tamil Nadu 72.4 54.5
All India 63.6 45.0
Urban
Orissa 77.3 66.4
Tamil Nadu 85.6 75.6
All India 80.5 69.3
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SC – ST Literacy
Rural Urban Male Female Person Male Female Person
SC Orissa 61.1 36.2 48.8 80.6 46.8 64.6 Tamil Nadu 64.5 43.6 53.3 83.1 64.9 74.1 All India 59.3 31.5 45.6 80.7 55.0 68.5 ST Orissa 43.9 19.7 31.3 70.4 39.1 54.5 Tamil Nadu 43.9 19.7 30.2 71.9 35.5 58.1 All India 54.2 28.5 41.4 82.4 60.1 71.3
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Orissa : Natural Hazards (1998-2007)
Population affected
40%
18%0%0%0%
42%
Flood Cyclone Lightning Heatwave Fire Epidemics
Disaster Events (1998-2007)
1 4.80.1 0.10.1
93.9
Flood Cyclone Lightning Heatwave Fire Epidemic
Orissa
Cyclone dominates disaster events
Epidemics lead population affected
Epidemics lead human deaths followed by cyclone
Orissa : Natural Hazards(1998-2007)
Human Death
2%
39%
8%9%1%
41%
Flood Cyclone Lightning Heatwave Fire Epidemics
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Orissa : Natural Hazards (1998-2007)
Destroyed Houses10%
83%
0%0% 7% 0%
Flood Cyclone Lightning Heatwave Fire Epidemics
Orissa : Natural Hazards (1998-2007)
Property Loss
75%
20%0%0% 5% 0%
Flood Cyclone Lightning Heatwave Fire Epidemics
Buildings largely damaged by cyclone
Property loss due to floods
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Distribution of Disaster Data Cards (1998-2006)
15%
10%
1%
34%
1%
34%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Flood Rains Lighting Drought Tsunami
Flash Flood Cyclone Fire Epidemics Fire
Tamil Nadu
Distribution of Population Exposed by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)
44%
55%
0%1%0%
0%
Flood Cyclone Tsunami Fire Epidemics others
Largest data cards of fire
Largest proportion of population exposed is floods
Largest death because of Tsunami
Distribution Human Deaths by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)
22%
5%
11%
0%
49%
4%
9%
Flood Cyclone Tsunami Lightning Fire Epidemics others
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Distribution of Building Damaged &Destroyed by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)
69%
0%
8%
6%
17%
Flood Cyclone Tsunami Fire others
Distribution of Building Damaged &Destroyed by Type of Disaster (1998-2006)
52%
6%
16%
8%
18%
Flood Cyclone Tsunami Fire others
Largest proportion of buildings damaged because of floods
Largest property damaged because of floods
Tamil Nadu
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Key development and poverty challenges Rural poverty Low ranking on Hunger Index of India. Tamil
Nadu and Orissa in category of alarming level of hunger
Increasing inequalities Children and women’s health Low female literacy (taken as proxy for poverty
in some studies such as Gujarat State’s HDR) A quarter in Tamil Nadu and about half
households in Orissa live in temporary house structures. This is also a proxy for poverty
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MethodologyEnhance
Poverty Outcomes Disaster Risk The reverse loop Disaster Risk to Poverty requires
longitudinal household level data, which not available at the moment in India
Attempt is to capture poverty through Head Count Ratio (Private estimates) Proportion of SC and ST (Population Census) (Proxy for poverty) Temporary Housing (Population Census) (Proxy for poverty)
District Level Analysis of these dimensions of poverty with disaster data
Relationship of Poverty and Disaster Risk captured through correlations & scatter diagrams
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Data issues
A Caution – District Level Poverty estimates are private estimates and not individual estimates. Official level poverty estimates are only upto state level
Disinventar Data – Better reporting in the last three years
TN – Tsunami dominates the impacts which cannot be seen across all the districts (More than half the deaths in last 10 years is because of tsunami)
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Poverty disaster linkages – Some observations
Tamilnadu reports 283 epidemic-related deaths whereas the figure for Orissa is a shocking 9848. The poverty-disaster link can be established here.
In Tamil Nadu, epidemic related deaths localised in 4 backward districts, in Orissa spread throughout the state indicating poor public provisioning of health care.
No death due to heat wave reported in Tamil Nadu inspite of warm climate indicating possibility of quicker access to emergency care.
In Orissa, the bulk of disaster loss is borne by the coastal districts which are not only at much higher levels of per capita income, but also are better off in terms of infrastructure and human poverty criteria than the interior districts. This is in part the consequence of locational vulnerability to climatic hazards, and may also reflect the greater degree of urbanization and higher density of population of the coastal districts.
31
Flood deaths are higher in Tamil Nadu than Orissa because of higher population density in the former.
Fire related deaths in Tamil Nadu are higher than in Orissa and are concentrated in the industrialized belt of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram and Vellore
32
Correlations – Poverty with disaster impacts
Orissa
Of HCR with
% permanent housing -0.44% ST 0.72% SC -0.20% temporary housing -0.14Deaths per 100,000 population - floods
- 0.11
Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone
- 0.18
Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave
-0.23
Deaths per 100,000 population – fire
-0.39
Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics
-0.41
33
HCR & Deaths Due to Floods
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
HCR
Dea
ths
per 1
0000
0
Series1
Linear (Series1)
HCR & Death Due to Epidemics, Orissa
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
HCR
Dea
ths
due
to e
pide
mic
s
Series1
Linear (Series1)
34
Correlations – Poverty with disaster impacts
Orissa
Of % SC with
% permanent housing -0.21% temporary housing 0.37Deaths per 100,000 population - floods
0.16
Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone
-0.08
Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave
-0.12
Deaths per 100,000 population – fire
0.21
Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics
0.23
35
Correlations – Poverty with disaster impacts
Orissa
Of % temporary housing with
Deaths per 100,000 population - floods 0.21Deaths per 100,000 population - cyclone 0.40Deaths per 100,000 population - heatwave 0.22Deaths per 100,000 population – fire 0.10Deaths per 100,000 population - epidemics 0.46Population exposed (per 100,000 total population) 0.57Population exposed to floods (per 100,000 total population)
0.51
Population exposed to cyclone (per 100,000 total population)
0.54
Population exposed to lightning (per 100,000 total population)
0.31
Population exposed fire (per 100,000 total population)
0.65
40
Conclusions
The correlations presented are indications of relationship existing
Two states taken contrast each other in development trajectories and nature of state policy
i) Orissa historically less developed, agricultural, subsistence economy, a section of population adversely impacted by degrading natural resources. Inefficient state in intervening for welfare.
ii) Tamil Nadu, historically well developed, industrial economy, with a long history of welfare interventions. Efficient welfare state
41
Way forward
This report should lead to developing data base of households in disaster prone areas. This should lead to longitudinal data sets. Disaster management has been mainstreamed in India in the 11th Plan Document and such data can be useful.
Move towards district level poverty estimates
Improvement in Disinventor data itself.