India Meteorological Department FDP STORM Bulletin No. 10 (11-03-2020) 1. SUMMARY OF THE DAY (DAY-1 & DAY-2): o Hourly reflectivity values from WRF-ARW model (initialized at 00 UTC of today) indicate highest probability of convection over north Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh as well as Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh on day 1 and continuing on day 2. IITM-WRF model Lightning Flash prediction model by DLP scheme (initialized at 12 UTC of yesterday) indicates high lightning flash potential over south interior Karnataka and Kerala. NCUM 4 km regional model (initialized at 00 UTC of today) based forecast of lightning indicates highest probability of lightning occurrence over Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Kerala on day 1 and with increased intensity over entire north and east India on day 2. Wind gust probability (20-24 mps or greater) is highest over Uttarakhand on day 1 and over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on day 2. o Synoptic analysis indicates that with the eastward movement of the Western Disturbance, an induced Low Pressure Area has formed over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 2.1 km above mean sea level. There is also an eastwest oriented trough from the induced cyclonic circulation to north Chhattisgarh across East Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh in the lower levels. The induced cyclonic circulation is likely to continue to bring in moisture from the Arabian Sea into northwest India. The zero degree isotherm has descended lower today over northwest India, compared to yesterday. The lower atmospheric shear has also increased in the 00 UTC soundings. With the intensification of the weather system over northwest India, weather in the form of thunderstorms accompanied by hail and gusty winds are expected over north India today. At the eastern end of the trough, the winds from the anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal (which has strengthened compared to yesterday), are likely to bring increased convection over east India. On day 2, the western disturbance is likely to move very slowly further eastwards. Correspondingly, weather over the entire north Indian region is likely to continue on day 2, with increase in intensity and spread.
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India Meteorological Department
FDP STORM Bulletin No. 10 (11-03-2020)
1. SUMMARY OF THE DAY (DAY-1 & DAY-2):
o Hourly reflectivity values from WRF-ARW model (initialized at 00 UTC of today) indicate highest probability of convection over north
Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh as well as Jharkhand,
Odisha, West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh on day 1 and continuing on day 2. IITM-WRF model Lightning Flash prediction model by DLP
scheme (initialized at 12 UTC of yesterday) indicates high lightning flash potential over south interior Karnataka and Kerala. NCUM 4 km
regional model (initialized at 00 UTC of today) based forecast of lightning indicates highest probability of lightning occurrence over Punjab,
Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Kerala on day 1 and with increased intensity over entire north and east India on day 2. Wind
gust probability (20-24 mps or greater) is highest over Uttarakhand on day 1 and over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and
Uttarakhand on day 2.
o Synoptic analysis indicates that with the eastward movement of the Western Disturbance, an induced Low Pressure Area has formed over
southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 2.1 km above mean sea level. There is also an eastwest
oriented trough from the induced cyclonic circulation to north Chhattisgarh across East Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh in the lower
levels. The induced cyclonic circulation is likely to continue to bring in moisture from the Arabian Sea into northwest India. The zero degree
isotherm has descended lower today over northwest India, compared to yesterday. The lower atmospheric shear has also increased in the 00
UTC soundings. With the intensification of the weather system over northwest India, weather in the form of thunderstorms accompanied by hail
and gusty winds are expected over north India today. At the eastern end of the trough, the winds from the anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal
(which has strengthened compared to yesterday), are likely to bring increased convection over east India. On day 2, the western disturbance is
likely to move very slowly further eastwards. Correspondingly, weather over the entire north Indian region is likely to continue on day 2, with
increase in intensity and spread.
2. IOP Area for Day-1 & Day-2:
IOP Advisory for 24hours IOP Advisory for 48 hours
Chhattisgarh Jharkhand, Bihar, Telangana, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, Kerala, Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 3 days.
CIN (50-150): The threshold value of the index over parts of Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, East and West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,
Jharkhand, Some part of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, East and West Madhya Pradesh, East and West Rajasthan, CAP ,SHWB and Sikkim,
N.M.M.T., Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, Kerala Telangana, Rayalseema, GWB, Vidarbha, during next 3 days.
3. Rainfall Activity (Forecast)
DAY-1 Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, West U.P., Orissa, Jharkhand,
Arunachal Pradesh; Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, SHWB
and Sikkim, GWB, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Bihar, East U.P., Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh West M.P., West Rajasthan, Lakshadweep,;
Forecast of Light rainfall activity over North Interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, Telangana, N.M.M.T, Assam and Meghalaya.
DAY-2:- Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, West & East
U.P., Bihar, Jharkhand, Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry,
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Rayalseema, South Interior Karnataka, Vidarbha, J&K, East M.P., Forecast of Light rainfall activity
over Lakshadweep, West Rajasthan, SHWB &Sikkim, N.M.M.T., Telangana, CAP.
DAY- Forecast of Moderate to Heavy rainfall activity over Jammu &Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Jharkhand ; Forecast of Light to Moderate rainfall activity over Vidarbha, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, East M.P., East and West U.P., Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh Bihar, N.M.M.T., Assam and Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, SHWB and Sikkim, GWB, Telangana, Lakshadweep ; Forecast of Light rainfall activity over West Rajasthan, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
6. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION (DUST ETC) AND ITS FORECAST BASED ON 00 UTC OF DATE:
No significant change in dust concentration was observed over Arabian Peninsula and north western part of India. No significant change in dust
concentration is expected for next three days over IGP and north India. As per AQ-EWS models the air quality is likely to improve and remain in
Satisfactory to Good category on 11.03.2020 owing to strong surface winds and rain. The air quality is likely to remain in Good to Satisfactory
category on 12.03.2020. The air quality is likely to remain in satisfactory category on 13.03.2020.
Delhi – analysis & Forecast Observed
11.03.2020: (9AM)
Forecast:
12.03.2020
Forecast:
13.03.2020
PM10 (micro-g/m3) 112 96 120
PM2.5 (micro-g/m3) 54 40 62
7. PAST OBSERVATIONS:
Satellite past 24hours observations:
OLR Daily (on convection based) INSAT-3D:
Upto 150-280 wm-2 is observed over Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Punjab Haryana Delhi north Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh
east Madhya Pradesh north Chhattisgarh Bihar Jharkhand north-west Orissa west –central Gangetic west Bengal north sub Himalayan west
Bengal Sikkim east Meghalaya central and east Assam Arunachal Pradesh Nagaland north Manipur.
Upto 280-310 is observed over rest Rajasthan rest Madhya Pradesh Gujarat Maharashtra rest Chhattisgarh rest Orissa rest Gangetic west
Bengal rest sub Himalayan west Bengal rest Assam rest Meghalaya rest Manipur Mizoram Tripura rest Karnataka Goa Telangana Andhra
Pradesh Kerala Tamil Nadu Lakshadweep Andaman & Nicobar islands .
Upto 300-340 is observed over north interior Karnataka north south interior Karnataka.
Precipitation: INSAT-3D IMR:
Rainfall upto 10-20 mm is observed over north Jammu & Kashmir.
Rainfall upto 1-10 mm is observed over south-west Jammu & Kashmir east Himachal Pradesh north Uttarakhand central south interior
Karnataka central coastal Kerala.
Precipitation: INSAT-3D HEM: Rainfall upto 7-13.9 mm is observed over north-west Arunachal Pradesh east-central south interior Karnataka.
Rainfall upto 0.149- 7 mm is observed over extreme south–east Madhya Pradesh north-east Vidharbha south-west south interior Karnataka.
Past 24hour DWR Reports:
Radar Station name
Date Time interval of observation (UTC)
Organization of the cells (Isolated single cells/multiple cells/ convective regions/ squall lines) with height of 20 dBZ echo top and maximum reflectivity
Formation w.r.t radar station and Direction of movement
Remarks Associated severe weather if any
Districts affected
Patiala 100300-110252
100300-101200
Nil
10/03/2020 1200 - 1500
Multiple cells dBz=43.5 Ht.- 06-08 Km
NE,SE Sector. Movement- NE-wards
Loharu, Natnaul, Bhiwani, Siwani, Meham, Mahendargarh, Jhajjar, Rohtak, Jind, Hisar And Their Adjoining Areas
10/03/2020 1500 -1800
Multiple cells dBz=38.5 Ht. -04-06 Km
SW,SE Sector. Movement-NE-wards
Meham, Hisar, Jind, Safidon, Israna, Panipat, Karnal And Their Adjoining Areas
10/03/2020 1800 - 2100
Multiple cells dBz=43.0 Ht. -05-08 Km
SW,SE,NE Sector. Movement-NE-wards
Bhiwani, Rohtak, Jhajjar, Maham, Jind, Sonipat, Panipat, Shamli, Karnal, Kaithal, Dehradun, Mussorie, Agasthamuni, Gangotri And Their Adjoining Areas
10/03/2020 2100- 0000
Multiple cells dBz=35.5 Ht. -05-06 Km
S,SW,SE Sector. Movement-NE-wards
Bhiwani, Meham, Rohtak, Panipat, Jhajjar, Sonipat, Mahendragarh, Narnaul, Rewari, Shamli, Muzzafarnagar, Sharanpur Haridwar, Rishikesh, Roorkee And Their Adjoining Areas
11/03/2020 0000-0252
Multiple cells dBz=38.0 Ht. -04-06 Km
SW,SE Sector. Movement-NE-wards
Biswana, Rajgarh, Siwani, Bhiwani, Hisar, Jind, Ishrana, Sonipat, Panipat ,Delhi, Baghpat, Meerut ,Rishikesh, Gangotri, Uttarakashi And Their Adjoining Areas
Radar Station Name
Date Time Interval Of Observation (UTC)
Organization Of The Cells(Isolated Single Cells/ Multiple Cells/ Convective Regions/ Squall Lines) With Height Of 20 dbz echo top and maximum reflectivity
Formation w.r.t. radar station and Direction of movement
Remarks Associated severe weather if any
Districts affected
Jaipur 11-03-20 100300-110300 Multiple cells with average height of 5.5 kms & maximum reflectivity of 52.0 dBZ at 04:12 UTC of 10/03/2020
Multiple cells develop from 03:02 UTC of 10/03/20 towards S,SE ,SW of Jaipur and moved towards E,NE-wards at an approximate speed of 15-20 km/hr and cells weaken at 08:42 UTC of 10/03/2020
-- Thunder storm / Lightning / rain at isolated places
Multiple cells with average height of 5.5 kms & maximum reflectivity of 53.0 dBZ at 18:22 UTC of 10/03/2020
Multiple cells develop from 08:32 UTC of 10/03/20 towards W ,NW of Jaipur and moved towards N,NE-wards at an approximate speed of 15-20 km/hr and cells continue at 02:32 UTC of 11/03/2020
-- Thunder storm / Lightning / Gusty winds accompannied with rain at isolated places and
Organization of the cells (Isolated single cells/multiple cells/ convective regions/ squall lines) with height of 20 dBZ echo top and maximum reflectivity
Formation w.r.t
radar station
and Direction of
movement
Remarks Associate
d severe
weather if
any
Districts affected
Lucknow 11-03-20 101252- 101822
Multiple cell system formed over 200 Km WSW.
Max. reflectivity was observed to be 48.5 dBZ with height of 6 Km
on 20 dBZ echo top.
The system moved NEly towards the station with
velocity 60 Km/h.
The cells dissipated at around 1822
UTC over 150 Km NE w.r.t. the station.
Light TSRA
Lucknow, Unnao, Kanpur Nagar, Kanpur Dehat,
Barabanki
110202- 110300
Multiple cells system spread over 170 Km WSW to 220 Km WSW. Max. reflectivity was observed to be 54.5 dBZ with height of 9 Km
on 20 dBZ echo top.
The system moved NEly towards the station with
velocity 60 Km/h.
The system persisted till 110300 UTC over 100-150
Km WSW of the station.
TSRA Jalaun, Hamirpur, Fatehpur, Kanpur
Nagar, Kanpur Dehat, Banda,
Unnao
Visakhapatnam 11-03-20 100300-110300
Nil Nil Nil
Goa 11-03-20 100300-110300
Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Patna 11-03-20 100300-110259
Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Realised TS/HS/SQ during past 24hours ending at 0300 UTC of today (Received from RMCs/MCs):
Region Thunderstorms Hailstorm Squall Duststorm Remarks
Northwest India Ajmer, Bikaner, Barmer, Churu Nil Nil Nil Nil
Northeast India Nil
Nil Nil Nil Nil
East India Nil
Nil Nil Nil Nil
South India Nil
Nil Nil Nil Nil
Central India Satna, Guna Nil Nil Nil Nil
West India Nil
Nil Nil Nil Nil
8. CURRENT WEATHER IMAGERIES:
RAPID RGB Satellite Imagery at 1415IST DWR Mosaic at 1514 IST today
DWR Lucknow reflectivity at 1502IST DWR Patiala reflectivity at 1522IST
Relative Vorticity at 850hPa at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D) 850-925hPa Convergence at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D)
Wind Shear at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D) Wind Shear tendency at 0400 UTC (INSAT-3D)
SEVIRI observed dust at 0515 UTC Water Vapour wind at 0500 UTC (INSAT-3D)
SEVIRI Convection at 0500UTC SEVIRI real time Lightning imagery at 0930UTC
9. FORECAST WEATHER IMAGERIES:
24hour Lightning forecast from WRF model valid for today GEFS Probability of wind gust(>25kt) valid for 1500UTC today
GEFS Probability of LAYRH(>70) valid for 1500UTC today Dust Surface and Dust Optical Depth 5 days Forecast (NCUM) for Delhi
10. REALISED WEATHER IMAGERIES:
Accumulated 24 Hour rainfall (in red) recorded at
0830 UTC of today IMR Daily Rainfall
HEM Daily Rainfall
INSAT 3D daily Outgoing Long Wave Radiation
3hourly Past weather at 06,09,12,15,18,21 UTC of yesterday and 00 & 03hrs UTC of today
Tmax Departure Tmax Tendency Tmax
MSLP Departure MSLP Tendency MSLP
RH at 1200 UTC yesterday RH at 0300 UTC today
11. IMPORTANT LINKS:
1. For GEFS LAYRH, SCP, Wind Gust Forecast Probabilities: