India: Experiences and Lessons for Policy Coherence and Lessons for Policy Coherence By ... India on the move…? Towards a “Superpower”? ... MDGs: 2015, India Vision: 2020 The

India: India:

Experiences and Lessons for Policy Coherence Experiences and Lessons for Policy Coherence

By

Binod Khadria

Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

Session 2:Session 2:

Pursuing Policy Coherence Pursuing Policy Coherence

betweenbetween

Migration and Development Policy Strategies:Migration and Development Policy Strategies:

Models and Practices.Models and Practices.

UNITAR Seminar onUNITAR Seminar on

Aligning Migration and Development Goals,Aligning Migration and Development Goals,

2323--24 March,24 March,

UN Headquarters, New YorkUN Headquarters, New York

India’s roller coaster of policy stance

on emigration has “come full circle”:

� The Indian Trajectory of Experiences:

� Pre-Independence notion of ‘motherland’ and ‘country of birth’ – Gandhi’s legacy as an ‘Indian abroad’, Nehru’s ‘motherland’;

� Post-Partition notion of ‘territorial affinity’;

� Post-colonial neutrality of NAM;

� Self-reliance, non-interventionist regime of Nehru-Indira;

� Paradigm shift in 1977

� Brain Drain as Brain Bank in the Rajiv Gandhi regime

� HLC Report, and policy ‘coming full circle’

� PBD of the “Indian Expatriates Day” since 2003

2% of India’s 1 billion population

Roughly half NRIs, and half foreign PIOs.

Some Indian Facts:Regional distribution of 20 million-stock of Indian migrants at the end of the 20th Century:

Figure 1: Percentage Distribution of NRIs and PIOs by Region

Other Europe3%

Asia-Pacific4%

Central Asia & Maldives

0.01%

Southeast Asia32%

Gulf19%

US10%

Mauritius & Reunion6%

UK7%

Israel0.03%

East Africa1%

South Africa6%

Latin America & Caribbean

7%

Canada5%

Some Indian Facts:

Of Stocks and Flows

� Now estimated 25 million.

� Flow: half a million PIOs growth, and half a million NRIs being added every year.

Destination America!Indian skilled migration is focused on the US

Some Indian Facts:

Relative Size of Asian Population in the US :

Economic integration

of Indian diaspora in the U.S.:

� Education-Occupation-Income Profiles of the Indian diaspora show Indian immigrants’ high economic integration in the twentieth-century US economy from 1970s onwards, leading to their high social and economic capabilities....

a. Average Age as an index of Indian

diaspora capabilities

b. Educational Profile as an index

of Indian diaspora capabilities:

c. Occupational Profile as the

Indian diaspora capabilities:

d. Income Profile of the Indian

diaspora as an index of capabilities.

India also tops 20 remittance-

recipient countries since 2004:

Dominant Source of Remittances:

Indian Labour Migration to the Gulf

� 258,000 in 1975, migrant Indian population in the Gulf went up to 3.3 million in 2001, now estimated to have crossed 3.5 million.

� Indian migrant workers in the GCC countries cater to all three categories: low-skilled, semi-skilled, and high-skilled.

� Indian white-collar workers and professionals comprise approximately 30 percent in these countries.

� However, 70 per cent of the Indian migrants in the Gulf still comprise semi-skilled and low-skilled workers.

The Source States for Labour Migration

� Most of Gulf overseas Indian workers (OIWs) come from three states:

� Kerala,

� Tamil Nadu,

� Andhra Pradesh,

� Karnataka overtook Andhra Pradesh by a big margin in 2005.

� However, Kerala is one state of India from which most of the semi-skilled and unskilled migrants to the Gulf have originated.

IN CONTRAST TO HAPPY PROFILE OF

SKILLED MIGRANTS IN THE US

LOW SKILLED WORKERS IN THE GULF FACE:

� adverse working condition,

� unfriendly weather,

� inability to participate in social and cultural activities,

� long periods of separation from families and relatives leading to emotional deprivation

How to assess?

�whether migration has contributed adequately to social and economic development in India?

(i.e., to human development in India?)

Beyond the Stereotype of Indicators

At the macro level, the attempts have indeed gone beyond identification of thestereotypes, viz.,

what I have elsewhere stylistically called the 3 ‘M’ s(for Money, Machines, and Man-hours):

These are:� Remittances, � Transfer of technology, and � Human capital embodied in returning migrants

Whither Diasporic Dividend?

� Services, Software and IT skills of Knowledge Workers:

� PIOs as Dual Citizens abroad

� BPO and Return Migration home

Consequently, there are now over 1000 US-based organizations of Indians

in North America, with branches in Canada.

Some professional associations are involved in grass-root level

development in India and welfare of their members abroad

Transition from “3D” to “3-D”

� Overpopulation, and Brain Drain

for Underdevelopment

to

� Demographic, and Diasporic Dividends

for Development

India on the move…?

� Towards a “Superpower”?

Stereotypes, Fiction, Euphoria?

� MDGs: 2015, India Vision: 2020

� The River of Gods: 2047

100 years after freedom

� The World Economic Forum, 2006

A primer of development index

� C for Cultural

� D for Demographic

� E for Economic� F for Financial

� M for Military� N for Nuclear

� P for Political

Two reasons to rejoice:

From Davos to Delhi Durbar!

� Transition from ‘Hindu Rate’ of Growth to Goldman Sachs’

� The magic mantra of ‘Demographic Dividend’

Holes in the Demographic Dividend

�Numbers in the population

Vs

�Quality of human resource

Skepticism…

on human capital in demography?

National Knowledge Commission ReportNational Knowledge Commission Report, 2007 said:, 2007 said:

� “Given the demographic reality of a young India, expansion, inclusion and excellence in higher education can drive economic development and social progress.

� Indeed, what we do in the sphere of higher education now can transform economy and society in India by 2025.”

Despair …

on growth?

� Given India’s propective achievements, it is little wonder that the recent

Growth Commission Report,Growth Commission Report,had its South Asia launch in New Delhi in May 2008.

� But, given India’s big failures, it did not list it among the 13 countries that experienced sustained and inclusive growth of 7 percent average or more over the last quarter of a century.

Or Worse, …UN questioning on

human development & well-being?

How to assess?

�whether migration has contributed adequately to social and economic development in India?

(i.e., to human development in India?)

To arrive at a proverbial 'win-win-win' for all

three stakeholders in migration:

� India as a south country of origin,

� the Indian migrants as part of its diaspora, and

� the host destination countries of the north,

Two specific conditions must be met:

A 'necessary condition' of dominant or significant global geo-economic presence of the Indian diaspora; and

A 'sufficient condition' of India deriving sustainable benefits from that global geo-economic presence

� In terms of the large demand for Indian migrants abroad, and their accomplishment in the labour markets of the destination countries, the first condition looks satisfied.

� To satisfy the sufficient condition, the flows of

remittances, transfer of technology, and return migration must all be directed towards the removal of two kinds of poverty in India –

- the ‘poverty of education’

- the ‘poverty of health’

These are areas where migration can be used as an instrument to facilitate human development-led growth in countries of origin –

e.g., by addressing AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY GAP between Labour that is RESIDENT IN INDIA

and the Labour embodied in INDIANS ABROAD.

This specifies the “double challenge” of public policy for migration in India:

The First Challenge is…

� To convince its own diaspora community to rethink the development process in India as primarily a “bottom up” creation and enhancement of sustainable productivities of labour through development of education and health rather than mostly being a

“top down” development through participation in business and industry - one comprehensive & long term, the other dispersed & immediate.

� “It is not just a matter of willingness; in many instances, it would entail long periods of struggle” in creating those decision-making and priority-setting discerning capabilities amongst the leaders of the migrant community.

The Second Challenge is…

� That India must be able to convince the destination countries (and the other countries of origin too) as to where lies the distinction between most ‘painful’and most ‘gainful’ socio-economic impacts of migration of its workers – both skilled and unskilled.

Or else…

� The puzzle of

Demographic and Diasporic Dividend

sans

Human Development and Well-being

would continue to remain and intrigue us as pieces of jigsaw that the opportunities in migration failed to bring together!

Thank You