India Economy and Trends 170811

INDIA - ECONOMY AND TRENDS August 2011

2

The growth story continues Steady Growth Increasing Market Attractiveness Quarter Update

Enablers of Indian growth story Key Developments Growth Enablers

Sector update Automotive Energy Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Retail and Consumer Goods Technology, Media and Telecommunications Transportation and Logistics

Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents

INDIA-ECONOMY AND TRENDS August 2011

3

Steady Growth … (1/4)

India-Economy and Trends August 2011

THE GROWTH STORY CONTINUES

• Real GDP grew at 8.6 per cent in 2010-11 compared to 8 per cent in 2009-10.

• The economy grew by 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2011-12.

• Inflation moderated to 9.1 per cent in April 2011 after peaking at over 16 per cent in January 2010.

• Service and manufacturing sector grew by 9.4 per cent and 7.9 per cent respectively in 2010-11. Agricultural sector made a significant contribution to the economy with a growth of 6.6 per cent in 2010-11.

• Industrial production clocked an annual growth of 6.3 per cent for 2010-2011.

• Consumer durables showed an annual growth of 3.8 per cent in April 2011.

• Gross fixed investment remains a major driver of economic growth, growing at an average of 11.5 per cent in 2010-11.

• The Current Account Deficit (CAD) moderated to 2.6% of the GDP in 2010-11 at $44.3 billion due to fast growth in exports.

Current scenario

Source: Central Statistics Organisation

4


Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Economic Indicators

Growth rate (per cent) 2008–09 2009-10 2010–11 E

Real GDP 5.1 9.1 8.8

Agriculture and allied

activities (0.1) 0.4 5.4

Industry 4.4 8.0 8.1

Services 10.3 10.1 9.6

Private final consumption

expenditure 6.6 6.3 7.3

Government final

consumption expenditure 11.8 16.4 9.0

Gross fixed capital

formation 2.7 6.6 10.2

Exports 15.8 (4.8) 13.1

Imports 22.3 (6.8) 6.1

Consumer Prices 10.9 12.0 8.1


• Growth is primarily driven by investment and government expenditure.

• Inflation is being neutralised with consistent economic growth.

• Services sector continues to drive GDP growth mainly through trade and finance.

Source: IMF; Economic Intelligence Unit; Estimates


5


Fiscal Performance

• Public debt is slowly decreasing and is expected to be 50.2 per cent of GDP by 2012-13.

• Government expenditure is expected to remain at 16.1 per cent of GDP for 2010-11.

Fiscal Indicators

(Per cent of GDP) 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 E

Government Revenue 10.1 11.0 11.3

Government

Expenditure 16.6 16.1 16.1

Government Balance (6.5) (5.0) (4.8)

Net Public Debt 56.1 51.9 51.5

Source: IMF; Economic Intelligence Unit; Estimates

Economic Intelligence Unit Projections

Source: IMF, Economic Intelligence Unit


External Sector

• Export of goods is expected to cross US$ 270 million in 2010-11.

• Substantial capital inflows in 2011-12 will ensure that the shortfall on the current account poses little risk to the economy.

US$ million 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11

Trade Balance (106,982) (133,721) (164,935)

Goods: exports 168,218 225,423 271,624

Goods: imports 274,566 359,039 436,559

Service balance 39,304 42,708 51,365

Income balance (6,851) (12,577) (13,110)

Current transfer balance 49,293 52,157 60,760

Current account balance (25,922) (51,781) (65,919)

Source: IMF, Economic Intelligence Unit


6


Foreign Exchange


• India‘s total international reserves are estimated to be US$ 603 billion in 2010-11.

Total International Reserves

100 121 140 239 289 340 275 287 354 439 479 603

2426

2876 3312

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11E

Mexico Brazil India Russia China

Foreign Investment in India

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(1stQuarter)

FDI FII

US$

mill

ion

US$

bill

ion

Source: DIPP

Source: DIPP

Investment Partners (1991-2011)

42%

10% 7% 5%

4%

32% Mauritius

Singapore

USA

UK

Netherlands

Others

Source: DIPP

Source: IMF

Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP),

Government of India


7




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


8

Increasing Market Attractiveness … (1/4)

• India targets to achieve annual FDI worth US$ 50 billion by 2012 and plans to double the inflows by 2017.

• Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India increased to US$ 88.52 billion in 2010-11.

• Economic growth backed by strong market fundamentals is the core attraction for global investments.

• Enabling business environment with conducive regulatory regime adds to the investment impetus.

• Large and growing talent pool along with reaffirmed impetus on infrastructure development is the primary enabler for investment inflow.

Global Investment Destination Investment Sectors (1991-2011)

Source: DIPP


21%

8%

8%

14% 5%

44%

Services

Computer Software andHardware

Telecommunications

Real Estate andConstruction

Automobile

Others

Investment Intentions

25.8 58.1 77.5

127.0 178.6 327.2

223.8

367.3 3991

5218 6338

6371

3818 4085 3475

4456

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Proposed investment Number of proposals

Source: DIPP


9


FDI Policy


Sl No Sector/Activity FDI cap/Equity Entry route

1

Airports: greenfield projects 100 per cent Automatic

Airports: existing projects 100 per cent

Investment upto 74 per cent is under the

automatic route and beyond 74 per cent under

the Government route

2 Banking (private sector) 74 per cent

(FDI + FII)

Upto 49 per cent FDI is under automatic route;

Government route beyond 49 per cent and upto

74 per cent

3 Banking (public sector) 20 per cent Government

4

Construction — development projects including

housing, commercial premises, hotels, resorts,

hospitals, educational institutions, recreational

facilities and city and regional level infrastructure

100 per cent

Automatic

(subject to conditions notified vide press note 2

(2005 series)

5 Drugs and pharmaceuticals including those

involving the use of recombinant technology 100 per cent Automatic

6 Health and medical services 100 per cent Automatic

7 Hotel and tourism related industry 100 per cent Automatic

8 Insurance 26 per cent Automatic (subject to licensing by the Insurance

Regulatory & Development Authority )

Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Government of India


10



FDI Policy



9 Ports and harbours 100 per cent Automatic

10 Non Banking Finance Companies (NBFCs) — approved activities 100 per cent Automatic

11

Exploration activities of oil and natural gas fields, infrastructure related to marketing of

petroleum products, actual trading and marketing of petroleum products, petroleum

product pipelines, natural gas/LNG pipelines, market study and formulation and

Petroleum refining in the private sector

100 per cent Automatic

12 Petroleum refining by the Public

Sector Undertakings (PSU) 49 per cent Government

13

a. Generation and transmission of electric energy produced in hydroelectric,

coal/lignite based thermal, oil-based thermal and gas-based thermal power plants

b. Non-conventional energy generation and distribution

c. Distribution of electric energy to households, industrial, commercial and other

users

d. Power trading

100 per cent Automatic


11



1 Discussion papers, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Government of India

FDI Policy



14

Telecom: basic and cellular, unified access

services, national/international long-distance, V-

Sat, Public mobile radio trunked services,

Global mobile personal communications

services (GMPCS), and other value added

telecom services

74 per cent (including FDI, FII, NRI, Foreign

Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs),

American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), Global

Depositary Receipts (GDRs), convertible

preference shares and proportionate foreign

equity in Indian promoters/investing company)

49 per cent

Automatic route;

Government route

beyond 49 per cent

upto 74 per cent

Policy changes under review and discussion1

• Defense sector: Increase from present cap of 26 per cent to 74 per cent, similar to telecom sector

• Multi-brand Retail Trading: Increase from present cap of 51 per cent to 100 per cent.

• Ownership vs Control: Caps on FDI for each sector are placed for limiting control of foreign entities in Indian

companies. GoI has identified the difference in ownership and control. Presently discussion are going on to limit

foreign control and not ownership in sectors.


12




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


13

Quarter Update … (1/6)

Source: Central Statistics Organisation, RBI

Central Government Finance


• Growth in economy is being driven by government expenditure.

• Government expenditure is fueled by food inflation, subsidies, focus on social and infrastructure sectors and short term debt servicing.

• Government revenue is showing a slow but sure positive growth trend.

Central Government Finance

-100.00

-80.00

-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

2 Qtr -2009

3 Qtr -2009

4 Qtr -2009

1 Qtr -2010

2 Qtr -2010

3 Qtr -2010

4 Qtr -2010

1 Qtr -2011

Revenue Expenditure BalanceU

S$ m

illio

n


14


Source: Central Statistics Organisation, RBI, Department of Economic

Affairs, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy

National Output

• While the Government had set itself a target of 9 per cent annual growth for 2011-12, it has been revised to a more realistic 8 per cent.1

• The growth in industrial production was 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2011-12.

• Agricultural sector grew by a robust 6.6 per cent in 2010-11 adding to the economic growth.

• Services sector grew by 9.4 per cent in 2010-11. It is expected to grow by 9.5 per cent in 2011-12. 2


Source: 1 Central Statistics Organisation 2 Economic Intelligence Unit

National Industrial Production

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

2 Qtr -2009

3 Qtr -2009

4 Qtr -2009

1 Qtr -2010

2 Qtr -2010

3 Qtr -2010

4 Qtr -2010

1 Qtr -2011

Industrial Production Index % change in industrial production

IPI (

Bas

e 1

99

3-9

4)


15


Inflation

• After peaking at over 16 per cent in January 2010, the annual rate of consumer price inflation has moderated, to stand at 9.1 per cent in April 2011, compared with 13.7 per cent in April 2010.

• Food price inflation fell from a peak of 20.9 per cent in first quarter of 2010 to 12.4 per cent in first quarter of 2011.

• RBI has announced a tighter monetary policy to check inflation. A calibrated approach is being taken to curb inflation without unduly affecting growth.


Consumer Price Index

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

2 Qtr -2009

3 Qtr -2009

4 Qtr -2009

1 Qtr -2010

2 Qtr -2010

3 Qtr -2010

4 Qtr -2010

1 Qtr -2011

General Index Fuel Index Manufactured Goods Index

Source: Central Statistics Organisation, RBI, Department of Economic

Affairs, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy


16


Exchange Rates

• Rupee is showing a robust resilience to fluctuations in global currencies.

• The rise in the currency is primarily due to strong inflows of foreign investment, attracted by India‘s bright economic prospects.

• The current-account deficit is not expected to pose a threat to the rupee, as it is expected to average modestly at 2 per cent of GDP in 2011-151


Rs/US$

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

2 Qtr -2009

3 Qtr -2009

4 Qtr -2009

1 Qtr -2010

2 Qtr -2010

3 Qtr -2010

4 Qtr -2010

1 Qtr -2011

Rs/US$

Source: RBI

Source: 1 Economic Intelligence Unit


17


Foreign Trade

• A consistent growth in the exports is a clear contributor to the growth in economy.

• During April-June, 2011-12, exports grew by 45.7 per cent to US$ 79 billion and imports shot up by 36.2 per cent to US$ 110.6 billion.

• Trade balance has been fluctuating due to fluctuations in the global crude prices.

• The exporting sectors that registered strong growth during the quarter include engineering, petroleum products, gems and jewellery, readymade garments and electronics.

Foreign Trade

Source: Center for Monitoring of Indian Economy


-120,000

-100,000

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2 Qtr -2009

3 Qtr -2009

4 Qtr -2009

1 Qtr -2010

2 Qtr -2010

3 Qtr -2010

4 Qtr -2010

1 Qtr -2011

Exports Imports Trade Balance

US$

mill

ion


18


Financial Markets

• At its latest review of monetary policy in June 2011, the Reserve Bank of India (the Central Bank) raised its benchmark interest rate, the repurchase (repo) rate, by 25 basis points to 7.5 per cent.

• Since March 2010, RBI has increased the repurchase rate 11 times with last update on 26th July 2011.

• This was done to maintain anti-inflationary stance in a calibrated manner, without affecting economic growth.

• The effect of tighter funds and likely slowdown in economic growth is reflected in the sentiment of the equity market.

Interest Rates

Source: RBI


6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

2 Qtr -2009

3 Qtr -2009

4 Qtr -2009

1 Qtr -2010

2 Qtr -2010

3 Qtr -2010

Deposit Rate Lending Rate

Sensex

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2 Qtr -2009

3 Qtr -2009

4 Qtr -2009

1 Qtr -2010

2 Qtr -2010

3 Qtr -2010

4 Qtr -2010

1 Qtr -2011

Sensex YoY %Change

Source: BSE


19




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


20

Key Initiatives in Recent Times … (1/4)

Policy Proposals – Budget 2011-12

Agriculture

• Recognition to cold chains, postharvest storage and capital investment in fertiliser production as an infrastructure sub-sector.

• Proposal for setting up of National Mission for Protein Supplements to promote animal based protein production through livestock development, dairy farming, piggery, goat rearing and fisheries.

• Promotion of organic farming methods, combining modern technology with traditional farming practices like green manuring, biological pest control and weed management.

• Capital investment in the creation of modern storage capacity will be eligible for viability gap funding scheme of the Finance Ministry.

• Proposal to review and enforce a reformed Agriculture Produce Marketing Act.

ENABLERS OF INDIAN GROWTH STORY

Source: National Budget, 2011-12


21



Banking and Financial

• Foreign investors are permitted to invest in the equity schemes of SEBI registered Mutual Funds.

• Amendments in the Reserve Bank of India Act are proposed to be introduced in Parliament.

• Setting up of Central Electronic Registry under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest (SARFAESI) Act, 2002.

• Setting-up a Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission to rewrite and streamline the financial sector laws, rules and regulations. Commission will complete its work by 2013.




22



Education

• Budget allocation of Rs. 52,057 crore (US$ 11.6 billion) for universalising access to secondary education, increasing the percentage of scholars in higher education and providing skill training.

• ―Vocationalisation of Secondary Education Scheme‖ will be implemented to improve the employment of youth.

• The National Knowledge Network to link 1,500 Institutes of Higher Learning and Research through an optical fibre backbone.

• Additional fund of Rs. 500 crore (US$ 111 million) to the National Skill Development Fund.

Environment and Climate Change

• Allocate funds from National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) for Green India Mission and launching environmental remediation programmes.




23



Manufacturing

• Proposal to create National Manufacturing and Investment Zones (NMIZs) to increase manufacturing component of economy from 16 to 25 per cent.

• National Mission for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles will be launched to provide green and clean transportation for the masses.

• Set-up 7 mega leather clusters during the financial year 2011-12. Jodhpur is included for the development of a handicraft mega cluster.

Microfinance

• Creating a dedicated fund ―India Microfinance Equity Fund‖ of Rs. 100 crore (US$ 22 million) with Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) for providing equity to smaller Mutual Fund institutions.

• Creation of a ―Women‘s SHG‘s Development Fund‖ of Rs. 500 crore (US$ 111 million) to empower women and promote their SHG.




24




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


25

Growth enablers … (1/6)

Consumer Spending

• India has approximately 222 million households, with more than 30 per cent of the population living in 5,000 cities and towns.

• 13 million people enter India‘s urban work force each year.

• India‘s population grew at 1.5 per cent during 2005-10. It is estimated that by about 2025 India will have 25 per cent of the worlds total workforce.

• Companies are catering to rural demand - tapping the ―bottom of the pyramid‖ - for inclusive growth.

• The rural consumer market, which grew by 25 per cent in 2008, is expected to reach US$ 425 billion in 2010-11 with 720-790 million customers. This will be double the 2004-05 market size of US$ 220 billion.


Source: CII-Technopak White Paper (2009)

India Spends on

10%

4%

6%

3%

60%

17%

Clothing and Fashion

Beauty and Welness

Electronics

Furniture and Fixtures

Food and Grocery

Others

Source: India Retail market, August 2010, Deloitte


26


Consumer Spending

Source: India Retail market, August 2010, Deloitte

Expenditure, 2009-10

57%

43%

Private Consumption Expenditure

Government Expenditure

37% 63%

Retail Non Retail

15%

85%

Modern Traditional



27


Demographics

Source: World Population Prospects, 2010, UN

Projected Population of India (million)


• India is among the world‘s youngest nations with a median age of 25 years as compared to 43 in Japan and 36 in the US.

• In 2025, more than 55 per cent of the population of India would be of working age.

• With a large working population, India can continue to be competitive globally.

0 500 1000 1500 2000

0-4

5-14

15-24

25-60

60-64

65-80

Over 80

2030 2025

Projected Median Age in 2025

34

40

28

39

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

Brazil Russia India China Mexico

Median Age

Source: World Population Prospects, 2010, UN


28


Robust Financial Institutions

Source: RBI

Growth Rate


• India‘s financial markets are robust and backed by strong fundamentals.

• The Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the strong and independent capital markets regulator is committed to develop and regulate markets in a systematic way.

• The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) is the world‘s largest stock exchange in terms of number of listed companies and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) is the world's third-largest stock exchange in terms of number of transactions.

• The Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) is among the top three ‗bullion‘ exchanges and top four ‗energy‘ exchanges of the world.

• National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), the first and largest depository for equity market in India manages more than 10 million demat accounts.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010

Aggregate Deposits Gross Bank Credit

Credit Deposit Ratio

68.0%

70.0%

72.0%

74.0%

76.0%

78.0%

Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010

Credit-Deposit Ratio

Source: RBI


29


Exports: India’s position is strengthening

Source: RBI

India‘s exports – Goods and services


• Exports jumped 46.4 per cent in June 2011 to US$ 29.2 billion continuing the fast paced growth of the previous fiscal. Imports, too, continued to rise at a pace of 42.4 per cent to US$36.9 billion.

• The trade deficit for June 2011 is estimated at US$ 7.7 billion which was lower than the deficit of US$ 11.02 billion during April 2010.

• India is a leading exporter of IT services in the world. The US and the UK together account for a dominant share of India‘s IT-BPO exports at approximately 61 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively.

• India is moving from cost competitive exports towards more value based exports both in goods and services.

• India accounts for approximately 1.64 per cent of global trade in goods and services currently. The government aims to double this share by 2020.

Composition of services exports 2009–2010 (P)

Source: RBI Source: RBI, Government of India

0

50

100

150

200

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

Goods Services

13%

12%

53%

12%

10%

Travel

Transportation

Software services

Business Services

Others


30


Investment Climate

Source: CMIE, Economic Survey 2010-11

Trends in share of gross fixed

capital formation (GFCF)


• Presence of large sector backward integration and competitors presents ideal scenario for businesses to grow with a large target market.

• India‘s industrial sector is expected to witness capital expenditure worth INR 22 trillion (US$ 483.5 billion) during 2010–13.

• Electricity sector is expected to witness the highest capacity addition worth INR 4.4 trillion (US$ 96.6 billion) during 2010–13.

• Other sectors that are expected to witness significant investments during 2010–13 include: • Steel (INR 2,370 billion/US$ 52.1 billion).

• Roadways (INR 1,606 billion/US$ 35.3 billion).

• Telecommunications (INR 1,546 billion/US$ 34

billion).

• Petroleum products (INR 1,411 billion/US$ 31 billion).

22.9

23.6

24.7 28.8

30.3 31.7

33.3 32.2 32.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

Public sector Private corporate sector

Household sector GFCF as % of GDP


31




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


32

Automotive Industry … (1/3)

Fuelling India’s Growth

• The automotive sector has been one of India's largest and fastest-growing manufacturing industries, with vehicle production (excluding two- and three-wheelers) increasing by over 130 per cent overall, to 2.9 million units a year, in the last six years leading to 2009-10. The Indian auto sector grew the fastest in the world at over 18 per cent during January-May 20111.

• India's automotive industry provides direct or indirect employment for over 10m people and accounts for around 5 per cent of industrial output.

• The automobile sector recorded a 28.2 per cent growth in production, 26.9 per cent in domestic sales and 30.6 per cent in exports during 2010-11 (Apr-Feb).

• The overall volume growth rate for the sector grew by17.6 per cent yoy and 2.6 per cent qoq during the first quarter of 2011-12.

• Strong economic growth is expected to support robust passenger-car sales growth in the period 2011-15, with new passenger-car sales forecast to expand at an average rate of 14.5 per cent a year.

• India is expected to be the seventh-largest automotive market in the world by year 2015.

• Low penetration levels coupled with a healthy and sustainable economic environment and favourable demographics supported by increasing per capita income levels are expected to drive long-term growth of the industry.

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: 1 Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers

Economic Intelligence Unit


33


Fuelling India’s Growth

• Foreign carmakers continue to come to India in an attempt to secure a share of the growing domestic market.

• Super-luxury carmakers are beginning to enter the Indian market.

• The small-car market, which already accounts for two-thirds of domestic sales, offers promising prospects for sales growth as increasing affluence enables more Indians to trade up from motorcycles.

• Sales of commercial vehicles are forecast to expand strongly rising by an annual average of almost 15 per cent a year in the next five years to around 830,000 units in 2015-16.

• The automotive components industry in India continues to grow rapidly as a result of lower costs and rising quality of production.

• The Indian automobile sector is expected to grow faster than US, Japan and Germany in the next 5 years.

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

Automotive Industry Growth Projections

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

India US Japan China Germany



34


Union Budget Provisions

• National Mission for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles is proposed to be set up in collaboration with all stakeholders to encourage alternative fuel-based vehicles.

• Full exemption from basic Customs Duty and a concessional rate of Central Excise Duty extended to batteries imported by manufacturers of electrical vehicles.

• Concessional Excise Duty of 10 per cent to vehicles based on Fuel cell technology.

• Exemption granted from basic custom duty and special Countervailing Duty (CVD) to critical parts/assemblies needed for Hybrid vehicles.

• Reduction in Excise Duty on kits used for conversion of fossil fuel vehicles into Hybrid vehicles from 10 per cent to 5 per cent.

• Excise Duty on LEDs reduced to 5 per cent and special CVD being fully exempted.

• Concession to factory-built ambulances from Excise Duty.

• Agricultural credit outlay increased to Rs. 4,75,000 crore (approx. US$ 107054) – expected to increase demand for agricultural vehicles.

• Overall increased emphasis on infrastructure development is expected to boost demand for automobiles.

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: National Budget, Government of India , 2011-12


35




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


36

Energy

Sector Outlook

• The total installed capacity in India is 169,748 MW1. Thermal sector is the largest source of power and contributes 111,034 MW to the total installed capacity.

• To meet the increase in the total peak power demand and energy requirement, an additional 75,000 MW of capacity is proposed to be added during 2012-17. Additionally, 13,000 MW of captive capacity will also be added to meet the captive demand.

• There will be a substantial increase in the transmission infrastructure of the country during 2012-17. There will be an increase of 90,000 Circuit Kilometers (Ckm) of transmission lines; 154,000 megavolt amperes (MVA) of substation capacity; and 27,350 MW of inter-regional transmission grid.

• The power sector in India has experienced significant growth in private investments since the enactment of the Electricity Act, 2003. The private sector currently contributes 35,145 MW to the total installed capacity.

• Market-based approach to unlock energy efficiency opportunities, estimated to be about Rs. 74,000 crore (approx. US$16,677 million) by 2014-15 with 19,000 MW avoided capacity addition.

• Excise duty exemption for Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP) equipment is expected to aid fast-track creation of new large-scale power generation capacities.

• Higher FII limit for investment in corporate bonds issued by infrastructure companies is expected to provide additional funding to the power sector.

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: 1Central Electricity Authority (Data as on Dec. 2010)

Ministry of Power, Government of India, Economic Intelligence Unit, National Budget 2011-12


37

Energy – Sector Strengths

SECTOR UPDATE

Robust legal, regulatory and policy framework Market infrastructure

• The enactment of the Electricity Act 2003 led to a deepening

of the reform process through the introduction of a

competitive regime in the Indian power sector. The Act also

provided framework for franchisee based participation of

private sector in Distribution.

• The Government is continuously working towards promoting

a facilitative framework for promotion of renewable energy

technologies.

• Introduction of open access , expansion of transmission

infrastructure, creation of trading licensees , setting up

of power exchange and addition of merchant capacity

have created a strong base for the power trading

market.

Conducive environment to attract private investments R&D and Training

• Private sector players contribute almost ~32 per cent of total

generating capacity addition in 11th Plan and are set to go

beyond 60 per cent during 12th Plan.

• Dedicated institutes for research and development and

training such as Central Power Research Institute (CPRI)

and the National Power Training Institute (NPTI).


38

Energy – Present Capacity

SECTOR UPDATE

Installed Capacity in India (MW)

Sector Hydro Thermal Nuclear R.E.S. Total

State Govt. 27,257 52,157 0 2,822 82,236

Private Govt. 1,425 19,755 0 13,965 35,145

Union Govt. 8,685 39,122 4,560 0 52,367

Total 37,367 111,034 4,560 16,787 169,748

Hydro 22%

Gas 10%

Renewable 11 %

Nuclear 3 %

Thermal 54%

13,066 MW

2,939 MW

2,632 MW

18 MW

Wind power

Small Hydropower

Bio power*

Solar power

Note: Data as on 31st Dec 2010

* including biomass power, bagasse cogeneration, urban and industrial waste to energy Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and Ministry of Power, Government of India


39

Energy

SECTOR UPDATE

Future Plans – Power Sector (2012-2017)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Total

Capacity addition

(MW) 17,500 16,000 15,500 14,000 12,000 75,000

Total Power Sector Fund

Requirement (Rs. Crores) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Total

Generation 1,24,625 1,12,250 92,875 91,375 90,250 5,11,375

Transmission 35,100 40,250 42,500 45,750 45,900 2,09,500

Distribution 99,375 79,500 59,625 59,625 99,375 3,97,500

TOTAL 2,59,100 2,32,000 1,95,000 1,96,750 2,35,525 11,18,375

Renewable Energy Sources

(MW) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Total

Target for

five years

Biomass/ Agri waste 80 80 80 80 80 400

Bagasse Cogen 300 300 250 250 250 1,350

Urban and Industrial Waste

(U&I) Energy 25 35 45 55 60 220

Small Hydro Power (SHP) 300 300 300 350 360 1,610

Solar 800 400 400 1,000 1,100 3,700

Wind 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 11,000

Total 3,705 3,315 3,275 3,935 4,050

Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and Ministry of Power, Government of India


40




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


41

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Industry … (1/4)

Sector Outlook

• India‘s pharmaceutical industry production is valued at around Rs. 1 lakh crore (approx. US$ 20 billion) with exports being around 40 per cent. The Indian Pharma Industry globally ranks 3rd in terms of volume.

• Presently, India contributes around 20 per cent in terms of value in the global generic drugs market.

• The Indian pharmaceutical sector is expected to witness revenue growth momentum, driven by steady, ~14 per cent growth in domestic brand-named formulations and the continuing expansion of the international business.

• Domestic formulations are sustaining double-digit growth trajectory, mainly driven by the chronic segments – anti-diabetes and cardiovascular – which are growing by over 20 per cent and offer strong margins.

• Export formulations are likely to grow on the back of the continuous launch of products, forays into new areas, supplies under licensing deals and the launch of products with limited competition.

• Increase in personal income, government healthcare outlays and private domestic investment, combined with longer life expectancy, should allow per-head healthcare spending to rise to US$142 in 2015.

• While the retail segment is mainstay of the pharmaceuticals market (contributes 85-90 per cent of overall sales), the hospital segment is gaining importance driven by the rise in infrastructure and advent of corporate hospitals.

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: Department of Pharmaceuticals, Government of India, Economic Intelligence Unit


42


Sector Outlook

SECTOR UPDATE

Indian

Pharma

Industry

95 per cent of the domestic requirement being met through domestic production.

India has proven legal skills to evaluate IP and commercial strategies are available in top companies.

Emerging hub for Contract research, Bio-pharma, Clinical trials and Clinical data management.

One of the lowest costs for innovation and clinical trials globally enabled by the low cost scientific pool

India enjoys a high degree of regulatory compliance capabilities of international standards

India is one of the lowest cost producers of pharma products with proven track record in high tech manufacturing facilities.


43


Growth Drivers

SECTOR UPDATE

Indian Pharmaceutical

industry to

reach US$ 20 billion

by 2015

Increasing investment into R&D by Indian pharma companies - around 6 per cent of sales invested in pursuing R&D

Rising affordability and increased healthcare insurance

Incremental consumption from tier III-IV towns and rural markets, which constitute 20 per cent of the total market and are currently growing at 25-30 per cent

International manufactureres pursuing R&D partnerships with Indian firms

Increase in health-awareness and higher prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases

Strong growth in chronic therapies

Source: ASSOCHAM, Thomson Reuters


44



SECTOR UPDATE

• Increase in plan allocation for health by 20 per cent in 2011-12 to Rs.26,760 crore (approx. US$ 6,031 million).

• Scope of the ‗Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana‘ to be expanded to widen coverage.

• Proposal to increase budgetary allocation for the department of pharmaceuticals to promote the research and development. Plans to allocate total amount of Rs 213 crore (approx. US$ 48 million) to the Department for financial year 2011-12 as compared to the budgetary allocation of Rs 198 crore (approx. US$ 45 million) in FY 2010-11.

• Proposal for budgetary allocation of Rs.132.31 crore (approx. US$ 30 million) during FY 2011-12 for the National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research (NIPER) and allocation of Rs.8.28 crore (approx. US$ 2 million) for the projects of National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA).

• Additional health-related budget allocation, encompassing yoga, naturopathy and homeopathy, has been increased by 12.5 per cent year on year in 2011-12.

Source: National Budget, Government of India, 2011-12


45




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


46

Retail and Consumer Goods … (1/3)

Sector Outlook

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: Reuters, India Retail Report, 2010

Already a Large Sector

High Growth Expected

Multi-Sector Potential

• India‘s US$ 450 billion retail market is the third-largest in Asia in terms of sales.

• Second-largest employment provider in India, after the agricultural sector, with approx. 15 per cent employment and expected to continue to account for a significant share of overall employment.

• The total retail spend is estimated to double in the next five years, of which organised retail is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22 per cent.

• Consumer expenditure on food, beverages and tobacco is forecast to rise in absolute terms to US$588bn in 2015, from an estimated US$375.3bn in 2010.

• Growth in market demand for electrical appliances and household goods is forecast to average 13.7 per cent a year in 2011-15.

• Clothing sales is expected to rise rapidly, driven by a growing youth population.


47


Growth Drivers

SECTOR UPDATE

India Retail Sector Growth

Increasing momentum of Rural retail

Proposed Setting up of additional 15 Mega Food Parks during 2011-12.

Increased spending on R&D wings by FMCG

companies

Proposed FDI norms expected to provide strategic investment

opportunity for global retailers

Growing Consumer Class Population

Substantial Expansion and Retailer Investment Plans


48


Government Support

SECTOR UPDATE

• Surcharge on domestic companies reduced to 5 per cent from 7.5 per cent.

• Enhancement of the exemption limit for the general category of individual taxpayers is expected to leave the consumers with a higher disposable income adding to the demand for consumer goods.

• Proposal to enlarge the scope of exemptions under the package of measures to incentivise food processing by providing full exemption from excise duty to air-conditioning equipment and refrigeration panels for cold chain infrastructure and conveyor belts used in cold storages and warehouses.

1991 1997 2006 2008 2011 2006

FDI up to 100 per cent allowed under the automatic route in Cash and Carry (wholesale)

Government mulled over the idea of allowing 100 per cent FDI in single-brand retail and 50 per cent in multi-brand retail

Liberalisation - Indian economy opened FDI up to 51 per cent allowed under the automatic route in select priority sectors

FDI up to 51 per cent allowed with prior Government approval in 'Single Brand Retail'

Government considering to allow FDI in multi-brand retailing


49




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


50

Technology, Media and Telecommunications … (1/4)

Technology

SECTOR UPDATE

• The Indian IT sector has registered robust growth in the last two decades and more particularly in last five years.

• The industry is expanding beyond US/UK markets into several other emerging markets.

• The revenues from the sector are estimated to be US$ 74.4 billion in 2010-11, translating into CAGR of 22.5 per cent from 2004-05 to 2010-11.

• Spending on IT is expected to grow substantially in 2011-15, by an average of 16.9 per cent a year in US dollar terms. This would result in the industry becoming even more prominent in India than it is currently.

• Deal signings are strong across the tier 1 Indian IT firms. The deal pipeline for the Indian IT firms is stronger as compared to last year.

• The domestic market for the IT sector is also steadily increasing.

• The current deal pipeline also includes many new first-time outsourcers from non-traditional verticals/geographies as well. The Indian IT companies are likely to gain market share in this multi-vendor outsourcing trend.

Source: Gartner Research, April 2011


51


Media, Entertainment and Telecom

SECTOR UPDATE

• With a current estimated size of approx US$ 13 billion, the Indian Media and Entertainment industry is one of the fastest growing industries of India and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13 percent to reach the size of approx. US$ 24 billion by 2014.

• The Indian animation industry is expected to grow at 20 percent to reach US$ 253 million by 2013 from the current US$ 122 million.

• The Indian gaming market alone has been estimated at US$ 239 million and is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 50 percent to reach US$ 1.3 billion by 2013.

• India is the second-largest telecom market in the world with 874.68 million subscribers as on May 31, 2011, which are estimated to reach approximately 1 billion by 2014.

• The telecom sector is one of the highest FDI-attracting sectors in India, and has recorded FDI inflow worth more than US$ 9 billion between 2000 and 2010.

• The overall tele-density in India is 73.11 and the total broadband subscriber base is 12.12 million at the end of May 2011.

• The rural markets are expected to be the next key growth drivers for the Indian telecom sector, given rural India‘s growing population and disposable income.

• The government‘s push to increase mobile penetration rates is expected to generate increased demand for telecom equipment; domestic demand for telecoms equipment is forecasted to grow by around 10 per cent a year in the next few years.

Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Gartner Research,

April 2011


52


SECTOR UPDATE

Growth Forecasts

Units in US$ Million 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Computing Hardware (US$ M) 6,400 7,412 8,818 10,267 11,679

Software (US$ M) 2,215 2,477 2,803 3,186 3,604

IT Services (US$ M) 6,163 7,403 8,636 10,066 11,777

Telecommunications (US$ M) 43,987 49,767 54,160 57,637 62,295

Total IT ( US$ M) 58,765 67,059 74,419 81,155 89,356

Source: Gartner Research, April 2011, Deloitte Research

Rs Billion 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Films 89 96 105 115 125

TV 257 289 337 382 448

Print 175 190 206 225 246

Radio 8 9 10 12 14

Music 8 9 10 12 14

Animation 20 23 28 33 39

Gaming 8 10 14 20 26

Internet 8 11 15 18 23

Outdoor 14 15 17 19 21

Total Media 587 652 742 836 956


53


SECTOR UPDATE



• The lower rate of 15 per cent tax on dividends received by an Indian company from its foreign subsidiary are expected to boost the margins of large IT companies.

• Parts and components of mobile handsets are exempted from Special Additional Duty until March 2012.

• The surcharge in case of domestic companies is proposed to be reduced from 7.5 per cent to 5 per cent and in case of foreign companies from 2.5 per cent to 2 per cent. Also, the dividend distribution tax rate will be reduced from 16.61 per cent to 16.22 per cent.

• The increase in the plan allocation for School Education by 24 per cent to Rs. 520.57 billion in FY 2011-12 would boost business opportunities for the IT-Education companies.

• Proposal for connecting 1,500 Institutions of Higher Learning and Research through optical fibres with the assistance of National Knowledge Network (NKN).

• Plans for set up of Sectoral Innovation Councils and State Innovation Councils in each state in alignment with the National Innovation Council.


54




Road ahead Future Outlook

Contents


55

Transport and Logistics

SECTOR UPDATE


Increased Allocation FII Limits Raised Tax Free Bonds

• Allocation of over Rs. 2,14,000 crore

(approx. US$ 48230 million)

proposed for infrastructure sector in

2011-12 which is 23.3 per cent

higher than the allocation in 2010-11.

• FII limit for investment in

corporate bonds, with residual

maturity of over five years to be

raised by US$ 20 bn, resulting in an

aggregate limit of US$ 40 bn.

• Proposal to allow tax free bonds of Rs.

30,000 crore (approx. US$ 6761

million) to be issued by various

Government undertakings in the year

2011-12 - Indian Railway Finance

Corporation and NHAI – Rs.10,000

crore (US$ 2253 million) each and

Ports – Rs. 5,000 crore (US$1127

million).

Infrastructure Debt Funds FIIs in SPVs Increasing PE Confidence

• Proposal to create Special Vehicles in

the form of notified infrastructure

debt funds.

• The Finance Bill, 2011 proposes

to provide tax exemption from

any income arising to an

Infrastructure Debt Fund

• Since most of the infrastructure

companies are organised in the

form of SPVs , it is proposed to

permit FIIs to invest in unlisted

bonds of such SPVs with a

minimum lock-in period of three

years.

• Increased activity in transport and

logistics sector during the first 5

months of 2011

• Overall, about 160 deals in

infrastructure sector in last 5 years


56

Transport and Logistics – Roads

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: National Highway Authority of India

Several Opportunities Tax Exemption

• More than 150 projects covering over 30,000 km of roads

expected to be awarded by 2014.

• 100 per cent tax exemption in any 10 consecutive years

within a period of 20 years after completion of the project.

Standardisation of Processes Long term Returns

• Concession Agreement framework in place for undertaking

projects on BOT Toll, BOT Annuity and Operate, Maintain and

Transfer (OMT) basis.

• Concession period of upto 30 years for enabling long term

returns and tolling rights for toll projects.

Permission for Foreign Equity Faster Implementation of Projects

• 100 per cent foreign equity permitted in construction and

maintenance of roads, highways, tunnels etc.

• Government support for land acquisition, resettlement and

rehabilitation - simplified procedures

Duty free import Funding of Projects

• Duty free import of high capacity equipment required for

highway construction.

• Provision of funding to select road projects under the

Economic Importance and Interstate Connectivity Schemes.

Government Financial Support Faster Approvals and Clearance

• Viability Gap Funding (VGF) Grant upto 40 per cent of project

cost to make project viable.

• Government Support on legal and operational aspects such

as obtaining of registration licenses, environmental

clearances etc.


57

Transport and Logistics – Ports and Airports

SECTOR UPDATE

Aviation Ports

• Establishment of Civil Aviation Economic Advisory

Council - The Council was set up following a surge

in airfares of domestic airlines and aims to

promote policies to enhance the sustainability of

the aviation industry in India in consultation with

stakeholders.

• Civil Aviation Requirements issued by Directorate

General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) for passenger

facilitation.

• Plan to set up Independent Civil Aviation

Authority announced to replace the DGCA.

• New Land Policy for Major Ports 2010 - Opens up new opportunities for

logistics players wishing to setup logistics facilities in the vicinity of the

port.

• Draft Major Ports Regulatory Authority Act - Proposes to replace Tariff

Authority for major ports by MPRA thereby providing more freedom to

Major ports in setting tariffs. Seen as the first step in ensuring level playing

field for all ports, major and non-major.

• Draft Indian Ports (Consolidated) Bill 2010 - Seeks to replace and merge

the Indian Ports Act 1908 and Major Port Trust Act 1963. Proposes a

single regulatory authority to be setup for all ports in India (major and

non-major).



58

Transport and Logistics – Railways

SECTOR UPDATE

Railways‘ Infrastructure for Industry Initiative (R3i) Private Freight Terminal Policy

• Targeted to attract private sector participation in rail

connectivity projects through laying of new lines.

• Four different models are allowed in this policy all of which

essentially provide incentives to the private sector for laying

down new lines.

• This policy allows the private sector to set up terminals for

handling both container and goods on a revenue sharing basis

with the railways.

Rail Connectivity to Coal and Iron Ore Mines Policy (R2ci) Special Freight Train Operator Policy

• Intended to facilitate and provide incentives to customers to

invest in rail connectivity for coal and iron ore blocks.

• This policy will allow private sector to move their own rakes

for traffic other than containers. A complementary policy on

development of automobile and ancillary hubs has also been

announced.

Several Policy Developments


59

Transport and Logistics – Logistics

SECTOR UPDATE

• Transport and Logistics sector market size in India is estimated to be over US$ 125 billion employing over 45 million and growing at the rate of 30 to 40 per cent per annum.

• As per the Ministry of Commerce , over 160 Inland Container Depot (ICD)/Container Freight Stations (CFS) are functional in the country. Half of these are privately owned and the other half by Container Corporation of India Ltd (CONCOR), Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC) and State Governments.

• Over 70 new ICD/CFS facilities are under development by the private sector.

• Emerging market survey, 2011 (excluding China) by Transport Intelligence establishes India‘s attractiveness: • Found nearly half the respondents agreeing that India would emerge as a major logistics hub in the

future.

• India‘s rapid growth and market size is the biggest attraction.

• It is proposed to recognise cold chains and post-harvest storage as an infrastructure sub-sector.

• Key policies governing the sector include: Multimodal Transportation of Goods Act, 2000 (amended), Indian Railways Act, 1989, R3i Policy, Special Freight Train Operator Policy, Warehousing Act, 2007, Procedure for setting up ICD/CFS and Private Freight Terminal Policy.

Source: Emerging market survey, Transport Intelligence and National Budget 2011-12

Ministry of Commerce, Government of India


60




Road ahead

Future Outlook

Contents


61

The Road Ahead … (1/5)

THE ROAD AHEAD

• India‘s strong growth fundamentals, investment rates, fast working population growth and a rapidly expanding middle class are expected to ensure a steady economic performance.

• The economic growth is expected to be led by private investment and private consumption in the coming years.

• The concept of inclusive growth remains central to India‘s development policy, as does the stabilisation of the public finances.

• Three dominant themes of the government‘s spending plan include: support for the farm sector, increased funding for infrastructure, increased focus on manufacturing sector and measures intended to damp down inflationary pressures.

• Further reforms are expected to open up previously closed sectors and raising limits on foreign ownership in others.

Source: RBI, CMIE, Economic Intelligence Unit

Future Outlook

• Real GDP is expected to grow at 8.6 per cent in 2011-12. Average annual growth rate will be around 8.8 per cent in 2012-13 to 2015-16.

• Agriculture, Industry and Services

contribution to GDP is expected to grow by approx. 9.5 per cent, 48 per cent and 55 per cent respectively during 2010-15 (at constant 2004-05 prices).



62


THE ROAD AHEAD

• India would continue to enjoy relatively rapid GDP growth.

• The government‘s stimulus measures are expected to boost short-term growth.

• The fiscal year budget contains a strong focus on fiscal consolidation.

• The national budget outlines a schedule of progressive deficit reduction, according to which the budget shortfall is targeted to narrow to 4.8 per cent in 2011-12 and 4.1 per cent in 2012-13.

• Part of the improvement in the fiscal position is expected to be a function of rapid economic growth.


Macroeconomics and Fiscal Policy


63


THE ROAD AHEAD

• The government is expected to maintain its focus on stimulus measures. Disinvesting stakes (up to a maximum of 49 per cent) in state-owned firms and moving forward with modest reforms in order to increase competition is likely to be continued.

• It is expected that the previously closed sectors will open up and limits on foreign ownership in others will be raised.

• The government is expected to encourage private and foreign participation in areas such as education, healthcare and infrastructure to further its aim of inclusive economic growth.

• Rapid real GDP growth, overall liberalisation of the economy and a growing need for investment—particularly in infrastructure and industry- are expected to lead to a more investor-friendly climate.

• Foreign investment is expected to be encouraged in the infrastructure sector and in underserved but high-potential areas, such as healthcare.


Competition and Foreign Investment Policy


64


THE ROAD AHEAD

• The free-trade agreement (FTA) with the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) that came into effect in January 2010 is expected to lead to the start of a significant reduction in tariffs. India is expected to push for more bilateral FTAs.

• Restrictions on outward direct and portfolio investment by companies and individuals, and on foreign borrowing, are expected to be relaxed further.


Trade and Exchange Controls

• The government plans to introduce a Goods and Services Tax in 2012. It also wants to implement a new Direct Tax Code at the same time, which would reduce exemptions and also reform corporate tax and income tax laws and rates.

• Significant government control is expected to persist in the banking sector.

• Competition from private-sector banks is expected to increase. New rules are expected to make banking mergers and acquisitions easier and allow greater foreign investment in private domestic banks.

Finance and Taxes


65


THE ROAD AHEAD

• Infrastructure is expected to improve most rapidly in sectors such as roads, telecom and ports.

• Government is expected to push development in core areas including water, sanitation and urban infrastructure.

• The level of investment in infrastructure is expected to rise and new models of Public-Private Partnership may evolve.


Infrastructure


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India Economy and Trends 170811

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