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INDEX
Welcome to Rio.
.....................................................................................................................3
Synthetic Program
..................................................................................................................5
Sponsors -
LACEA.................................................................................................................6
Sponsors -
LAMES.................................................................................................................7
Chairs......................................................................................................................................8
LACEA Program Committee
.................................................................................................9
LAMES Scientific
Committee..............................................................................................11
Local Committee
..................................................................................................................12
General Information
.............................................................................................................13
COMPLETE PROGRAM
....................................................................................................16
THURSDAY 20 November 2008…………………………………………………….. 16
FRIDAY 21 November 2008 ………………………………………………………… 43
SATURDAY 22 November 2008 ……………………………………………………. 65
SUNDAY 23 November 2008……………………………………………………....... 93
Index of Presenters
.............................................................................................................106
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Welcome to Rio!
After the successfull Mexico City and Bogotá Meetings, this year
we’ll have also ajointed LACEA and LAMES that will continue to be
realized at the same location witha unified registration.
We are happy to invite you to the Opening Ceremony to take place
on November 20, at8:15 a.m. in IMPA. We also invite all
participants and accompanying people for thecocktail at 8:00 pm, in
the main hall of IMPA in the same day.
As soon as you arrive, we ask you please to confirm your
registration (check in) at theentrance hall and take the material
of the meeting.
The conference is providing buses to transport participants from
some chosen hotels toIMPA and back every conference’s days
(November, 20-23). Please see the timetable inthis program.
CONFERENCE DINNER:
The conference dinner will take place on November 21st (Friday)
at 8:30 pm, in MAM -Museum of Modern Art - which is located in a
beautiful site with panoramic view of theGuanabara Bay. We made
special efforts in choosing the food that should have theBrazilian
taste. Also there will be “chorinho” which is the Brazilian form of
jazz, andsome other Brazilian music. Everybody registered in the
conference is welcome.
We want to thank all who have donated time and energy resource
for this Congress. Wealso want to thank the members of the Program
Committee and the Local OrganizerJosé Heleno Faro. We especially
want to thank the co-chairs of LAMES HumbertoMoreira e Sergio Firpo
and the co-chair of LACEA Luis Braido.
Thank you too to Marcia Waleria of FGV and Suely Lima and Pedro
Faro of IMPAwho did magnificent secretarial job.
Thank you for coming! We are very happy to have you here!
Aloísio Araujo, chair of LACEA-LAMES 2008.
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Synthetic Program
Thursday 20 November Friday 21 November Saturday 22 November
Sunday 23 November
08:00 - 08:15 Registration
08:15 - 08:30
08:30 - 08:45
08:45 - 09:30
Open Ceremony
09:30 - 09:45
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
09:45 - 10:00 Coffee Break
Contributed Sessions
10:00 - 10:15 Coffee Break
10:15 - 10:30
Invited Lectures
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break Coffee Break
10:45 - 11:00
Invited Lectures
11:00 - 11:30
11:30 - 11:45
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
11:45 - 12:00
12:00 - 12:15
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
Invited and SponsoredLectures
12:15 - 12:30
Invited Lectures andSessions
12:30 - 12:45
12:45 - 13:00
Lunch
13:00 - 13:15
LunchLunch
Closing Panel
13:15 - 13:45
13:45 - 14:00
14:00 - 14:30
Invited Lectures andSessions
14:30 - 14:45
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
14:45 - 16:00
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
16:00 - 16:15
Invited Lectures andSessions
Invited and SponsoredLectures Coffee Break
16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break Coffee Break
16:30 - 17:15Invited Lectures
17:15 - 17:30Keynote Lecture
17:30 - 18:00
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
18:00 - 18:30Invited Lectures
18:30 - 18:45
Sponsored andContributed Sessions
18:45 - 19:00
19:00 - 19:30
Plenary Session andPresidential Address
19:30 - 19:45
19:45 - 20:00
Plenary and InvitedSessions
Keynote Lecture
20:00 - 20:30* Cocktail Conference Dinner*
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Chairs
Aloísio AraujoChair of LACEA/LAMES, FGV/EPGE and IMPA
Humberto MoreiraCo-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EPGE
Luis BraidoCo-Chair of LACEA, FGV/EPGE
Sergio FirpoCo-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EESP
José Heleno FaroLocal Chairman, IMPA
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LACEA Program Committee
NAME AFFILIATION
Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPALuis Braido Co-Chair,
FGV/EPGEMônica Viegas Andrade Universidade Federal de Minas
GeraisJuliano J. Assunção Pontifícia Universidade Católica,
PUC-RioOrazio Attanasio University College LondonRicardo R.G.
Avelino Universidade de São PauloRicardo Paes de Barros IPEA,
RioFrancisco Buera Northwestern UniversityCarlos Vianna de Carvalho
Federal Reserve Bank, New YorkTiago Cavalcanti University of
CambridgeRodrigo Cerda Pontifica Universidad Católica de
ChilePierre-André Chiappori Columbia UniversityCarlos E. da Costa
Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEPierre Dubois Université
ToulouseEduardo Engel Yale UniversityFlávia L. Chein Feres
Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisDaniel Ferreira London School
of EconomicsClaudio Ferraz IPEA, RioFrancisco Ferreira World
BankPedro C. Ferreira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEPaul J.
Gertler University of California, BerkeleyMaitreesh Ghatak London
School of EconomicsDelfim Gomes-Neto Universidade de VigoGustavo
Gonzaga Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioMartin Grandes
Center for Financial Stability and American University of
ParisBernardo Guimaraes London School of EconomicsGraciela Kaminsky
George Washington UniversitySandra V. Lizarazo ITAM, MéxicoEduardo
A. Lora Inter-American Development BankDean Lueck University of
Arizona
Nora C. LustigInter-American Development Bankand George
Washington University
Gabriel A. Madeira Universidade de São Paulo
Naercio A. Menezes-FilhoIBMEC Business School, São Pauloand
Universidade de São Paulo
Marcelo C. Neri Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/IBREEmanuel
Ornellas London School of EconomicsLeonardo Rezende Pontifícia
Universidade Católica, PUC-RioMauro Rodrigues Jr Universidade de
São PauloAndrés Rodriguez-Clare Pennsylvania State UniversityJosé
L. Rossi Jr IBMEC Business School, São PauloEsteban Rossi-Hansberg
Princeton University
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10
Jaime Saavedra World BankPablo J. Sanguinetti CAF and
Universidad Torcuato Di TellaRodrigo R. Soares Pontifícia
Universidade Católica, PUC-RioAndré Portela Souza Fundação Getulio
Vargas, FGV/EESPArilton Teixeira FUCAPE, VitoriaAndré Urani
Instituto de Estudos do Trabalho e SociedadeFernando A. Veloso
IBMEC Business School, RioThierry A. Verdier Paris-Jourdan Sciences
Economiques
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LAMES Scientific Committee
NAME AFFILIATION
Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPAHumberto Moreira
Co-Chair, FGV/EPGESergio Firpo Co-Chair, FGV/EESPElvio Accinelli
Universidad Autônoma de San Luis PotosiCaio de Almeida Fundação
Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEHeitor Almeida University of IllinoisPaulo
Barelli University of RochesterAlexandre Belloni Duke
UniversityMauricio Bugarin IBMEC Business School, São PauloBernardo
Blum University of TorontoEugenio Bobenrieth Universidad de
ConcepciónMarco Bonomo Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEVinicius
Carrasco Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioAndres Carvajal
University of WarwickRicardo Cavalcanti Fundação Getulio Vargas,
FGV/EPGELuciano Costa University oif IllinoisPaulo Coutinho
Universidade de BrasíliaFrancisco Cribari-Neto Universidade Federal
de PernambucoFlavio Cunha University of PennsylvaniaJuan Dubra
Universidad de MontevideoEmilio Espino Universidad Torcuato di
TellaEduardo Faingold Yale UniversityJosé Fajardo IBMEC Business
School, RioMarcelo Fernandes Queen Mary University of LondonRaquel
Fernandez New York UniversityArmando Gomes Washington
UniversityKlaus Schmidt Hebbel Banco Central do ChileHugo Hopenhayn
University of California, Los AngelesMaria Carolina da Silva Leme
Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPLuiz Renato Lima Fundação Getulio
Vargas, FGV/EPGEIgnacio Lobato ITAM, MéxicoHedibert Freitas Lopes
University of ChicagoWilfredo Maldonado Universidade Católica de
BrasíliaGustavo Manso Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyAlberto
Martin Universitat Pompeu FabraCesar Martinelli ITAM,
MéxicoJuan-Pablo Torres-Martinez Pontifícia Universidade Católica,
PUC-RioV.Filipe Martins-da-Rocha Fundação Getulio Vargas,
FGV/EPGEEnlinson Henrique Carvalho deMattos
Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP
Marcelo Medeiros Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-RioPaulo
Klinger Monteiro Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE
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12
Juan Pablo Montero Pontifica Universidad Católica de ChilePablo
Andrés Neumeyer Universidad Torcuato Di TellaJuan Pablo Nicolini
Universidad Torcuato Di TellaWalter Novaes Pontifícia Universidade
Católica, PUC-RioSergio Parreiras University of North CarolinaAureo
de Paula University of PennsylvaniaRodrigo Souza Peñaloza
Universidade de BrasíliaPedro Luiz Valls Pereira Fundação Getulio
Vargas, FGV/EESPHeleno Pioner University of ChicagoVladimir
Pinheiro Ponczek Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPÁlvaro Riascos
Universidad de los AndesJorge Rivera Universidad de ChileErnesto
Schargrodsky Universidad Torcuato Di TellaJosé Alexandre Scheinkman
Princeton UniversityAndré Portela Souza EESP/FGVVladimir Kuhl Teles
Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESPMaria Cristina Terra Fundação
Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGEMarcos Tsuchida Fundação Getulio Vargas,
FGV/EESPCarlos Urrutia ITAM, México
Local Committee
NAMEAFFILIATION
José Heleno Faro (Chairman) IMPASergei Vieira IMPARodrigo
Novinski IMPASusan Schommer IMPA
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General Information
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14
Location of IMPA
IMPA is located near the Botanical Garden in the city of Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil.The address is:Estrada Dona Castorina, 110.Rio de
Janeiro, RJ – Brasil.CEP: 22460-320
However, many cab drivers may need the following instructions
which we reproduce inPortuguese:
HORTO, Por Favor: Vou para o IMPA na Estrada Dona Castorina,
110.NO FINAL da Rua PACHECO LEÃO à DIREITA DEPOIS do PONTOFINAL da
LINHA DE ONIBUS 409.
Public Transportation:
How to get to IMPA:
The easiest and most cost effective (time wise) way to get to
IMPA is by cab asdescribed above. However, if you prefer to use
public transportation see the nextparagraph.
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15
• From Copacabana:
You can use the bus line 125 (Jardim Botânico) from Avenida
Princesa Isabel or RuaBarata Ribeiro and get off at the final stop.
You should then walk uphill to EstradaDona Castorina; IMPA is on
the right hand side.
Since the 125 bus is somewhat infrequent, it is usually faster
to follow a different route.Take the 572 or 584 bus and get off on
Rua Jardim Botânico at the stop near ABBR andthe “Pão de Açúcar”
supermarket. Then, walk to Rua Lopes Quintas (which crosses
RuaJardim Botânico), go to the bus stop near the newsstand, take a
409 or 125 bus and getoff at the final stop. From then on, follow
the instructions at the end of the previousparagraph.
• From Ipanema and Leblon
You can use the bus line 125 (to Jardim Botânico) from Rua
Prudente de Moraes(Ipanema), Avenida General San Martin (Leblon),
or Avenida Bartolomeu Mitre(Leblon) and get off at the final stop.
You should then walk uphill to Estrada DonaCastorina; IMPA is on
the right hand side.Since the 125 bus is somewhat infrequent, it is
usually faster to follow a different route.Take the 572, 512 or 584
bus and get off on Rua Jardim Botânico at the stop nearABBR and the
“Pão de Açúcar” supermarket. Then, walk to Rua Lopes Quintas
(whichcrosses Rua Jardim Botânico), go to the bus stop near the
newsstand, take a 409 or 125bus and get off at the final stop. From
then on, follow the instructions at the end of theprevious
paragraph.
• From Flamengo, Botafogo and Humaitá
You can use the bus line 409 (Sans Pena – Horto) from Praia do
Flamengo (FlamengoBeach), Praia de Botafogo (Botafogo Beach) or Rua
Humaitá, and get off at the finalstop. Then walk uphill to Estrada
Dona Castorina; IMPA is on the right hand side.
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COMPLETE PROGRAM
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
DAY OVERVIEW
08:00 - 08:15 Registration08:15 - 09:30 Opening Ceremony09:30 -
10:30 Invited Lectures10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break10:45 - 12:15
Sponsored and Contributed Sessions12:15 - 13:15 Lunch13:15 - 14:45
Sponsored and Contributed Sessions14:45 - 16:15 Invited Lectures
and Sessions16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break16:30 - 18:00 Sponsored
Sessions and Contributed Sessions18:00 - 19:00 LACEA Plenary
Sessions18:00 - 19:30 LAMES Invited Sessions19:00 - 20:00 LACEA
Plenary Session20:00 Cocktail
08:00 - 08:15 REGISTRATION
08:15 - 09:30 OPENING CEREMONY
08:15 - 09:30 OPENING CEREMONY (LACEA-LAMES)Chairperson: Aloisio
Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA
Room Auditorium 2
SPEAKERCarlos Ivan Simonsen Leal, President, Fundação Getúlio
Vargas
SPEAKER
Joaquim Levy, Treasury Secretary of Rio de Janeiro
SPEAKERTorsten Persson, Institute for International Economic
Studies
SPEAKER
Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution and LACEA
SPEAKERCésar Camacho, Director, IMPA
SPEAKER
José Sérgio Gabrielli, President, PETROBRAS
SPEAKERLuciano Coutinho, President, BNDES
09:30 - 10:30 INVITED LECTURESLACEA
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09:30 - 10:30 ALBERT HIRSCHMAN LECTURE (LACEA)Chairperson:
Gobind Nankani, President ofthe Global Development Network
Room Auditorium 2
UNDERSTANDING SUSTAINED HIGH GROWTH AND INCLUSIVEDEVELOPMENT:
ADAPTING TO NEW CHALLENGES IN THEGLOBAL ECONOMYMichael Spence,
Stanford University
09:30 - 10:30 INVITED LECTURESLAMES
09:30 - 10:30 ROLF MANTEL LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: Carlos
Ivan Simonsen Leal,President, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Room Auditorium 1
GAME THEORY IN PRINCETONHarold Kuhn, Princeton University
09:30 - 10:30 SPECIAL LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: TBA
Room Auditorium 3
LEADERSHIPEdward Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic
Advisers andProfessor of Economics, Stanford GSB
10:30 - 10:45 COFFEE BREAK
10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLACEA
10:45 - 12:15 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION:DO WHAT WE EXPORT
MATTERS FORGROWTH? (LACEA)Chairperson: Daniel Lederman, World
BankResearch Group
Room Auditorium 1
TECHNOLOGY DIFFERENCES AND FACTOR PROPORTIONSDaniel Lederman,
World Bank Research Group
HUMAN CAPITAL, PRODUCT QUALITY, AND BILATERAL TRADE
Michael Waugh, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank
THE POWER OF EXPORTSAriell Reshef, University of Virginia
10:45 - 12:15 NEW TRENDS IN FINANCIALREGULATION - SPONSORED BY
BBM(LACEA)Chairperson: Alexandre Tombini, Director ofNorms -
Brazilian Central Bank
This Session is Sponsored by BBM
Room Auditorium 2
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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RATING THE RATERS: ARE REPUTATION CONCERNSPOWERFUL ENOUGH TO
DISCIPLINE RATING AGENCIES?Jean-Charles Rochet, Toulouse School of
EconomicsCo-Authors: Jérôme Mathis, Toulouse School of Economics
and JamesMcAndrews, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
THE PROCYCLICAL EFFECTS OF BASEL II
Rafael Repullo, CEMFI
TBAEdward Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
andProfessor of Economics, Stanford GSB
10:45 - 12:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: SOCIALPROGRAMS, POVERTY
ANDPRODUCTIVITY (LACEA)Chairperson: Cesar Bouillon,
Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
Room Auditorium 3
THE IMPACT OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS ONLABOR
SUPPLYMaria Laura Alzua, CEDLAS - Universidad Nacional de La
Plata,Guillermo Cruces, Universidad de la Plata, Argentina and
Laura Ripani,Inter-American Development Bank
SOCIAL PROGRAMS, LABOR MARKETS AND POVERTY
REDUCTION IN BRAZILRicardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa
Economica Aplicada(IPEA)
EFFECTS OF OPORTUNIDADES ON EMPLOYMENT, WAGES,
MIGRATION AND OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY IN RURAL MEXICOEduardo
Oreggia, Instituto de Investigaciones sobre DesarrolloSustentable y
Equidad Social
10:45 - 12:15 TAXATION (LACEA)Chairperson: Elod Takats, IMF
Room 201
RAMSEY TAXATION WITH ENDOGENOUS DEFAULT UNDERINCOMPLETE
MARKETSDemian Pouzo, New York University
OPTIMAL BUSINESS INCOME TAX ENFORCEMENT AND THE
INFORMAL SECTOREduardo Zilberman, New York UniversityCo-Author:
Saki Bigio, New York University
RESIDUAL AND TECHNICAL TAX EFFICIENCY SCORES FOR
BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES: A TWO-STAGE APPROACHMaria Da Conceição
Sampaio De Sousa, Universidade de BrasíliaCo-Authors: Pedro Lucas
Araújo Pereira, and Maria Eduarda Tannuri-Pianto, Universidade de
Brasília
TAX RATE CUTS AND TAX COMPLIANCE - THE LAFFER CURVE
REVISITEDElod Takats, IMFCo-Author: Tamas Papp, Princeton
University
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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19
10:45 - 12:15 MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE(LACEA)Chairperson:
Felipe Schwartzman, PrincetonUniversity
Room 206
INFORMATION ASYMMETRY AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORMANDATE:
EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MUTUAL FUND FOREIGNHOLDINGSTatiana Didier, World
Bank
MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND THE CO-MOVEMENT OF STOCK
RETURNS IN LATIN AMERICAEurilton Araújo, Ibmec São Paulo
BUSINESS GROUPS AND PYRAMIDAL OWNERSHIP IN
ECUADORIAN BUSINESSMaria Granda, Texas A&M University,
Escuela Superior Politecnica delLitoral
EXTERNAL FINANCE, INTERNAL FINANCE AND WAGES
Felipe Schwartzman, Princeton University
10:45 - 12:15 BIS SPONSORED SESSION: MONETARYAND FINANCIAL
STABILITYIMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL FLOWS INLATIN AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN(LACEA)Chairperson: Camilo Tovar, Bank forInternational
Settlements
This Session is Sponsored by the BIS
Room 224
ASSESSING THE EMERGING GLOBAL FINANCIALARCHITECTURE: MEASURING
THE TRILEMMA'SCONFIGURATION OVER TIMEJoshua Aizenmann, Professor UC
Santa CruzCo-Authors: Menzie D. Chinn, University of Wisconsin
& the NBER andHiro Ito, Portland State University
IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN BRAZIL
Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo, Head of Research - Central
Bankof Brazil and Rafael Chaves Santos, Policy Advisor - Central
Bank ofBrazil
MONETARY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANCamilo Tovar, Bank for
International SettlementsCo-Author: Alejandro Jara, Bank for
International Settlements
TBA
Kevin Cowan, Head of Financial Policy at the Central Bank of
Chile
10:45 - 12:15 ECONOMETRIC THEORY ANDAPPLICATIONS
(LACEA)Chairperson: J. Ernesto Lopez Cordova,Inter-American
Development Bank
Room 232
DYNAMIC PANEL PROBIT MODELS FOR CURRENT ACCOUNTREVERSALS AND
THEIR EFFICIENT ESTIMATIONGuilherme Valle Moura, University of
Kiel, GermanyCo-Authors: Roman Lisenfeld, University of Kiel and
Jean-FrancoisRichard, University of Pittsburgh
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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20
TESTING FOR A DETERMINISTIC TREND WHEN THERE ISEVIDENCE OF
UNIT-ROOTDaniel Ventosa-Santaularia, Universidad de
GuanajuatoCo-Author: Manuel Gómez, Universidad de Guanajuato
AN ASSESSMENT OF ANOTHER DECADE OF CAPITAL
CONTROLS IN COLOMBIA: 1998-2008Arturo Galindo, Inter-American
Development Bank
THE INCIDENCE OF GRAFT ON DEVELOPING-COUNTRY FIRMS
J. Ernesto Lopez Cordova, Inter-American Development
BankCo-Authors: Alvaro Gonzalez, World Bank and Elio
Valladares,
10:45 - 12:15 INTERNATIONAL TRADE I (LACEA)Chairperson: Emanuel
Ornelas, LondonSchool of Economics
Room 236
TRADE FLOWS, FINANCIAL LINKAGE, AND BUSINESS CYCLES INLATIN
AMERICAMagda Kandil, International Monetary Fund
TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND INDUSTRY DYNAMICS: A
DIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCE APPROACHRoberto Alvarez, Central Bank
of Chile and Intelis, University of ChileCo-Author: Ricardo
López,
BILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, EXPORTS AND
TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING EVIDENCE FROM THE IMPACT OFMERCOSUR ON
ARGENTINEAN FIRMSPaula Bustos, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and
Crei
PROTECTION AND INTERNATIONAL SOURCING
Emanuel Ornelas, London School of EconomicsCo-Author: John
Turner, University of Georgia
10:45 - 12:15 MARKET STRUCTURE AND SOCIETY(LACEA)Chairperson:
Ana Cusolito, The World Bank
Room 329
PATENT BREADTH IN AN INTERNATIONAL SETTINGBen Zissimos,
Vanderbilt UniversityCo-Author: Eric Bond, Vanderbilt
University
INFORMATION SHARING AND INNOVATION IN AN INDUSTRIAL
CLUSTER OF NOVA FRIBRUGO, BRAZILIsleide Zissimos, UFRJ /
Vanderbilt University
DO VOLUNTARY POLLUTION REDUCTION PROGRAMS HELP
REDUCE POLLUTION LEVELS? EVIDENCE FROM THE MEXICANCLEAN INDUSTRY
PROGRAM.Emilio Gutierrez Fernandez, Brown UniversityCo-Author:
Andrew Foster, Brown University
COMPETITION, IMITATION, AND DIRECTED TECHNICAL CHANGE:
QUALITY VS. VARIETYAna Cusolito, The World Bank
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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10:45 - 12:15 SOCIAL PROGRAMS (LACEA)Chairperson: Jeremie
Gignoux, The WorldBank
Room 331
LOOKING WITHIN THE HOUSEHOLD: IMPACTS FOR INDIVIDUALOUTCOMES
USING AGGREGATE HOUSEHOLD DATAVincenzo Di Maro, University College
London
POVERTY AND TIME PREFERENCES
Leandro Carvalho, Princeton University
LOCAL ELECTORAL REWARDS FROM CENTRALIZED SOCIALPROGRAMS: THE
CASE OF PROGRESA-OPORTUNIDADES INMEXICOLourdes Rodriguez-Chamussy,
University of California, Berkeley
EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF SCHOOLING CASH TRANSFERS
WITH SPILLOVERS ACROSS VILLAGES: EVIDENCE FROMPROGRESAJeremie
Gignoux, The World Bank
10:45 - 12:15 LABOR ECONOMICS I (LACEA)Chairperson: David
Kaplan, World Bank
Room 335
DECOMPOSING THE GENDER WAGE GAP WITH SAMPLESELECTION CORRECTION:
EVIDENCE FROM COLOMBIAXimena Pena, Universidad de Los
AndesCo-Author: Alejandro Badel, Georgetown University
THE PLACE PREMIUM: WAGE DIFFERENCES FOR IDENTICAL
WORKERS ACROSS THE U.S. BORDERMichael Clemens, Center for Global
Development
WAGE STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION OF LABOR MARKET IN
COLOMBIA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SEVEN MAIN CITIES, 2001-2005Diana
Carolina Mesa Téllez, Universidad del RosarioCo-Authors: Andres
Felipe Garcia, Universidad del Rosario and MonicaRoa, National
Planning Department
JOB CREATION AND LABOR REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA
David Kaplan, World Bank
10:45 - 12:15 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (LACEA)Chairperson: Matteo
Grazzi, UN EconomicCommission for Latin America and theCaribbean
(ECLAC-CEPAL)
Room 349
THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN LATINAMERICAN
DEVELOPMENTCarlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, Institute for Advanced
DevelopmentStudiesCo-Authors: Felix Rioja, Georgia State University
and Antonio Saravia,American University of Sharjah
ENDOGENOUS PRODUCTIVITY AND MULTIPLE STEADY STATES
Riccardo DiCecio, FRB of St. LouisCo-Author: Levon Barseghyan,
Cornell University
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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22
REMOVING THE CONSTRAINTS FOR GROWTH: SOMEGUIDELINESRodrigo
Fuentes, Pontificia Universidad Católica de ChileCo-Author: Cesar
Calderon, The World Bank
WHAT DRIVES ICT DIFFUSION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?
EVIDENCE FROM PARAGUAYMatteo Grazzi, UN Economic Commission for
Latin America and theCaribbean (ECLAC-CEPAL)Co-Author: Sebastián
Vergara, UN Economic Commission for LatinaAmerica and the Caribbean
(ECLAC - CEPAL)
10:45 - 12:15 MACROECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Rubens Penha
Cysne,Fundação Getulio Vargas
Room 401
BUDGET DEFICITS AND INTEREST RATES: A FRESHPERSPECTIVEAri Aisen,
Banco Central de ChileCo-Author: David Hauner, Bank of America
UNIQUE MONETARY EQUILIBRIA WITH INTEREST RATE RULES
Pedro Teles, Banco de Portugal, Univ Catolica, CEPRCo-Authors:
Bernardino Adao, Banco de Portugal and Isabel Correia,Banco de
Portugal, Univ. Catolica, CEPR
TAX REFORM: THEORY AND PROPOSALS TO BRAZIL
Thiago Pereira, EPGE / FGV
ON THE ERROR ARISING FROM IGNORING INTEREST-BEARINGMONIES IN THE
CALCULATION OF THE WELFARE COSTS OFINFLATIONRubens Penha Cysne,
Fundação Getulio VargasCo-Author: David Turchick, Fundação Getulio
Vargas
10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Econometrics and Empirical Economics
10:45 - 12:15 PROGRAM EVALUATION I (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Cesar
Martinelli, ITAM
Room 345
"DO I REALLY NEED TO GO TO REHAB? I'D SAY NO, NO, NO."ESTIMATING
PRICE ELASTICITIES OF CONVALESCENT CAREPROGRAMSNicolas Ziebarth,
German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)
SOCIAL POLICY INDEX :A MODEL BASED APPROACH
Juan Manuel Tellez, University of GenevaCo-Author: Jaya
Krishnakumar, Department of Econometrics, Universityof Geneva
DO GOVERNMENTAL INCOME TRANSFER PROGRAMS HAVE
IMPACT ON POVERTY IN BRAZIL?Fabricio Linhares,
CAEN/UFCCo-Authors: Campelo Guaracyane, CAEN/UFC and Emerson
Marinho,CAEN/UFC
INFORMATION AND PARTICIPATION IN A SOCIAL PROGRAM
Cesar Martinelli, ITAMCo-Authors: David Coady, IMF and Susan
Parker, CIDE
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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23
10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Theoretical and Applied Economics
10:45 - 12:15 POLITICAL ECONOMY (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Jorge M.
Streb, Universidad delCema
Room 130
INFORMATION TRANSMISSION AND INEFFICIENT LOBBYINGRafael Costa
Lima, FGV/EPGECo-Author: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE
COMPARATIVE POLITICS WITH ENDOGENOUS INTRA-PARTY
DISCIPLINEBenoit Crutzen, Erasmus University RotterdamCo-Author:
Micael Castanheira, ECARES, Free University of Brussels,FNRS and
CEPR
TWO-BALLOT VERSUS PLURALITY RULE: AN EMPIRICAL
INVESTIGATION ON THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATESMauro Rodrigues,
University of Sao Paulo, BrazilCo-Authors: Carlos Eduardo
Goncalves, University of Sao Paulo, Braziland Ricardo Madeira,
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
DIVIDED GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL BUDGET CYCLES
Jorge M. Streb, Universidad del CemaCo-Author: Gustavo F.
Torrens, Washington University in Saint Louis
10:45 - 12:15 EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLES(LAMES
TAE)Chairperson: Christian Daude, OECDDevelopment Centre
Room 132
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING
MARKETECONOMIESMarcelo Silva, The University of North Carolina -
Chapel Hill
COUNTRY SPREADS AS CREDIT CONSTRAINTS IN EMERGING
ECONOMY BUSINESS CYCLESSarquis Sarquis, IRBr (Brazil), FMG/LSE
(UK)
ON THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS IN
EMERGING ECONOMIESAndres Fernandez, Rutgers UniversityCo-Author:
Roberto Chang, Rutgers University
EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLES REVISITED: LEARNING
ABOUT THE TRENDChristian Daude, OECD Development
CentreCo-Authors: Emine Boz, International Monetary Fund and Bora
Durdu,Federal Reserve Board
10:45 - 12:15 CORPORATE FINANCE (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Lucía
Quesada, UniversidadTorcuato Di Tella
Room 228
INTEREST RATES IN TRADE CREDIT MARKETSKlenio Barbosa, Toulouse
School of EconomicsCo-Authors: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE and
Walter Novaes,PUC-Rio
EXIT OPTIONS AND DIVIDEND POLICY UNDER LIQUIDITY
CONSTRAINTSMarko Terviö, UC Berkeley
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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24
Co-Author: Pauli Murto, Helsinki School of Economics
THE DELEGATED PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROBLEM:REPUTATION AND
HERDINGFelix Villatoro, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de
Chile
FINANCIAL CONTRACTING WITH AN INFORMED INVESTOR
Lucía Quesada, Universidad Torcuato Di TellaCo-Author: Eloïc
Peyrache, HEC School of Management
10:45 - 12:15 VOTING (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Felix Vardy, Office
of the ChiefEconomist LCR, World Bank
Room 333
COSTLY INFORMATION ACQUISITION.PART I: BETTER TO TOSSA
COIN?Matteo Maria Triossi Verondini, CEA, Departamento de
IngenieriaIndustrial, Universidad de Chile.
REDISTRIBUTION IN A MODEL OF VOTING AND CAMPAIGN
CONTRIBUTIONSFilipe Campante, Harvard University
NEGATIVE VOTE BUYING AND THE SECRET BALLOT
Felix Vardy, Office of the Chief Economist LCR, World Bank
10:45 - 12:15 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS (LAMESTAE)Chairperson:
Laixun Zhao, Kobe University
Room 347
BUSINESS TRAVEL AS AN INPUT TO INTERNATIONAL TRADEJennifer
Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz
TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN ENVIRONMENTALLY PREFERABLE
PRODUCTSEstelle Gozlan, INRACo-Author: Maria Priscila RAMOS,
AgroParisTech and CEPII
INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION TEAMS AND TRADE WITH
SORTING AND MATCHINGJose Tessada, University of Maryland
IMMIGRATION CONFLICTS
Laixun Zhao, Kobe UniversityCo-Author: Junko Doi, Kansai
University
12:15 - 13:15 LUNCH
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLACEA
13:15 - 14:45 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION:MEASURING INEQUALITY
OFOPPORTUNITY IN LATIN AMERICA(LACEA)Chairperson: Jaime Saavedra,
World BankDiscussants: Luis Felipe López-Calva,Regional Bureau of
Latin America and theCaribbean, UNDP and Andre Urani, IETS
Room Auditorium 1
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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25
PANELIST 1Ricardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa
Economica Aplicada(IPEA)
PANELIST 2
Marcelo Giugale, World Bank
13:15 - 14:45 IMF SPONSORED SESSION: 2008REGIONAL ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK -WESTERN HEMISPHERE (LACEA)Chairperson: Robert K. Rennhack,
IMF
Room Auditorium 2
GRAPPLING WITH THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISISAna Corbacho,
IMFDiscussant(s): Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and
LACEA
ELEVATED FOOD PRICES AND VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS:
FISCAL POLICY OPTIONSAna Corbacho, IMF
CORPORATE VULNERABILITY: HAVE FIRMS REDUCED THEIR
EXPOSURE TO CURRENCY RISKHerman Kamil, International Monetary
FundDiscussant(s): Kevin Cowan, Head of Financial Policy at the
CentralBank of Chile
13:15 - 14:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION - BONDMARKETS IN LATIN
AMERICA (LACEA)Chairpersons: Eduardo Borensztein,International
Monetary Fund and UgoPanizza, Unctad
This Session is Sponsored by IDB
Room Auditorium 3
CORPORATE BOND MARKETS IN ARGENTINAJorge M. Streb, Universidad
del Cema
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRAZILIAN BOND MARKET
Ricardo P. C. Leal, Coppead/UFRJ
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CHILEAN CORPORATE BOND MARKETMatias Braun,
Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez & IM Trust
DEVELOPMENT OF COLOMBIAN BOND MARKETS
Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA and
MarcelaMeléndez, Inter-American Development Bank
DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEXICAN BOND MARKET
Sara G. Castellanos, Bank of Mexico
THE FIXED-INCOME MARKET IN URUGUAYNestor Gandelman, Universidad
ORT Uruguay
13:15 - 14:45 POVERTY (LACEA)Chairperson: Carlos Gradín,
Universidade deVigo
Room 201
IDENTIFYING VICTIMS FROM CIVIL CONFLICTS: AN EVALUATIONOF FORCED
DISPLACED HOUSEHOLDS IN COLOMBIAƒXAna Ibáñez, Universidad de los
AndesCo-Author: Andrea Velásquez, Duke University
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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26
DO CHANGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET TAKE FAMILIES OUT OFPOVERTY:
DETERMINANTS OF EXITING POVERTY IN BRAZILIANMETROPOLITAN REGIONSAna
Flávia Machado, CEDEPLAR/UFMGCo-Author: Rafael Perez Ribas,
International Poverty Centre andUniversity of Illinois
A POVERTY TRAP MODEL WITH HUMAN CAPITAL AND THE
QUALITY OF EDUCATIONMaria Emma Santos, Oxford Poverty and Human
DevelopmentInitiative, University of Oxford and CONICET-Universidad
Nacional delSur
POVERTY AMONG MINORITIES IN THE UNITED STATES:
EXPLAINING THE RACIAL POVERTY GAP FOR BLACKS ANDLATINOSCarlos
Gradín, Universidade de Vigo
13:15 - 14:45 LABOR ECONOMICS: GENDER BIAS(LACEA)Chairperson:
Lucia Madrigal, InteramericanDevelopment Bank
Room 206
GENDER SEGREGATION IN THE WORKPLACE AND WAGE GAPS:EVIDENCE FROM
URBAN MEXICO 1994-2004Sebastian Calonico, University of
MichiganCo-Author: Hugo Nopo, Inter-American Development Bank
THE ROLE OF GENDER INEQUALITIES IN EXPLAINING INCOME
GROWTH, POVERTY AND INEQUALITY: EVIDENCES FROM LATINAMERICAN
COUNTRIESJoana Costa, International Poverty CentreCo-Authors:
Elydia Silva, International Poverty Centre and Fabio Vaz,UnB
MAIDS’ SERVICES AS A SUBSTITUTE FACTOR IN HOME-
PRODUCTION.Ana Claudia P Fava, UIUCCo-Author: Mary
Arends-Kuenning, UIUC
PART-TIME WORK, GENDER AND JOB SATISFACTION: EVIDENCE
FROM A DEVELOPING COUNTRYLucia Madrigal, Interamerican
Development BankCo-Authors: Florencia Lopez Boo, IDB/University of
Oxford and CarmenPages, Inter-American Development Bank
13:15 - 14:45 GOVERNMENT DEBT (LACEA)Chairperson: Claudio
Raddatz, World Bank
Room 232
IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND INSTITUTIONALFACTORS ON
THE STRUCTURE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT IN THEEMERGING MARKET
COUNTRIESAnastasia Guscina, The George Washington University, and
the IMF
THE DOMESTIC COSTS OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: CAN
AGGRESSIVE DEBT POLICIES AFFECT PRIVATE SECTORACCESS TO
CREDIT?Christoph Trebesch, Free University of Berlin
TOUGH POLICIES, INCREDIBLE POLICIES?
Alejandro Neut, OECD Development CentreCo-Author: Andres
Velasco, Harvard University
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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27
MULTILATERAL DEBT RELIEF THROUGH THE EYES OFFINANCIAL
MARKETSClaudio Raddatz, World Bank
13:15 - 14:45 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION I (LACEA)Chairperson: E.
Glen Weyl, HarvardUniversity and Toulouse School ofEconomics
Room 236
FIRM ENTRY AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICSPedro Silos, Federal Reserve
Bank AtlantaCo-Author: Enchuan Shao, Bank of Canada
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WAL-MART COMES TO YOUR COUNTRY?
MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' ENTRY, PRODUCTIVITY ANDINEFFICIENCYSilvio
Contessi, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PASS-THROUGH AS AN ECONOMIC TOOL
E. Glen Weyl, Harvard University and Toulouse School of
Economics
13:15 - 14:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND
INCENTIVES(LACEA)Chairperson: Claudio Ferraz, PUC-Rio
Room 331
LIMITING PRESIDENTIAL DECREE POWER: THE EFFECT OF
THECONSTITUTIONAL REFORM 32/2001 IN BRAZIL OVER
POLICYOUTCOMES.Mónica Pachon , Universidad de los Andes
SHOULD VOTERS BE AFRAID OF HARD-BUDGET CONSTRAINT
LEGISLATION? FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY LAW IN
BRAZILIANMUNICIPALITIESCarlos Pereira, Michigan State
UniversityCo-Author: Paulo Arvate, FGV and Michigan State
University
POLITICAL PRICE CYCLES IN REGULATED INDUSTRIES: THEORY
AND EVIDENCERodrigo Moita, Ibmec Sao PauloCo-Author: Claudio
Paiva, International Monetary Fund
MOTIVATING POLITICIANS: THE IMPACTS OF MONETARY
INCENTIVES ON QUALITY AND PERFORMANCEClaudio Ferraz,
PUC-RioCo-Author: Frederico Finan, UCLA
13:15 - 14:45 FINANCE: TERM STRUCTURE (LACEA)Chairperson: Samer
Shousha, BBM Bank
Room 335
GIVING FLEXIBILITY TO THE NELSON-SIEGEL CLASS OF TERMSTRUCTURE
MODELSRafael Rezende, Center for Development and Regional
Planning
TESTING THE LONG-RUN IMPLICATIONS OF THE EXPECTATION
HYPOTHESIS USING COINTEGRATION TECHNIQUES WITHSTRUCTURAL
CHANGEPedro Valls Pereira, EESP-FGVCo-Authors: Omar M. F. Abbara,
IMECC-UNICAMP and EmersonMarçal, Universidade Presbiteriana
Mackenzie and UNICAMP
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF
INTEREST RATES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE BRAZILIANCASESamer
Shousha, BBM Bank
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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28
13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT AND INEQUALITY(LACEA)Chairperson:
Guenther Rehme, HumboldtUniversität zu Berlin
Room 349
HETEROGENEITY IN MACRO MINCER RETURNS: EVIDENCEFROM PANEL
DATAMarcelo Soto, Instituto de Analisis Economico
EDUCATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF EARNINGS INEQUALITY IN
BRAZILPriscilla Albuquerque Tavares, Education Office of São
Paulo andMackenzie UniversityCo-Author: Naercio Menezes-Filho,
FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
ENTREPRENEURSHIP, CAPITAL GAINS, AND SOCIAL MOBILITY
Gabriel Arturo Basaluzzo, Universidad de San Andres
ENDOGENOUS (RE-)DISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES AND ECONOMICGROWTH: A
COMPARATIVE STATIC ANALYSISGuenther Rehme, Humboldt Universität zu
Berlin
13:15 - 14:45 LABOR ECONOMICS II (LACEA)Chairperson: Jennifer
Poole, University ofCalifornia, Santa Cruz
Room 401
TESTING WHETHER LEARNING THE MATCH QUALITY MATTERSFOR EMPLOYMENT
DYNAMICSCarlos Henrique Corseuil, IPEA
UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION IN MEXICO: ITS DETERMINANTS
AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATIONCONTROVERSY
AND PUBLIC POLICY DESIGNAngel Calderón-Madrid, El Colegio de
Mexico
UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY IN LABOR MARKETS OF
DEVELOPING COUNTRIESMaria Elisa Farias, Universidad de Chile
MULTINATIONAL SPILLOVERS THROUGH WORKER TURNOVER
Jennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Econometrics and Empirical Economics
13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Luigi Ventura,
Sapienza,University of Rome
Room 130
BUSINESS OWNERSHIP AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT INDEVELOPING ECONOMIES:
THE COLOMBIAN CASEXimena Pena, Universidad de Los AndesCo-Author:
Camilo Mondragón-Vélez, IFC
HOUSING DEMAND IN MEXICO
Fidel Gonzalez, Sam Houston State University
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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29
PRICE AND INCOME EFFECT ON THE QUALITY OF BRAZILIANFOOD DIET AND
HEALTH: AN ANALYSIS OF NUTRIENTS'DEMANDPaula Carvalho Pereda,
USPCo-Author: Denisard Alves, Universidade de São Paulo
RISK SHARING: A LONG RUN ISSUE?
Luigi Ventura, Sapienza, University of Rome
13:15 - 14:45 PARTIAL AND WEAK IDENTIFICATION(LAMES
EEE)Chairperson: Alfonso Flores-Lagunes,University of Florida
Room 329
EXOGENEITY TESTS AND WEAK IDENTIFICATION: FINITE-SAMPLE AND
ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS THEORYFirmin Doko Tchatoka, University of
MontrealCo-Author: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill university,
MEASURING PRECISION OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE ON
PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED PARAMETERSAleksey Tetenov, Collegio Carlo
Alberto
BOUNDS FOR QUANTILES OF TREATMENT EFFECTS
Jinhyun Lee, UCL
NONPARAMETRIC PARTIAL AND POINT IDENTIFICATION OF NETOR DIRECT
CAUSAL EFFECTSAlfonso Flores-Lagunes, University of
FloridaCo-Author: Carlos Flores, University of Miami
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Theoretical and Applied Economics
13:15 - 14:45 EDUCATION (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Lars Ehlers, U
de Montreal
Room 132
COLLEGE ENROLLMENT, DROPOUTS AND OPTION VALUE
OFEDUCATIONNicholas Trachter, University of ChicagoCo-Author: Ali
Ozdagli, University of Chicago
DOES THE POSSIBILITY OF OPTING OUT OF PUBLIC EDUCATION
FAVOR EXPENDITURE ON BASIC EDUCATION?Gabriel Romero, University
of Alicante
PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN HIGHER EDUCATION: COMPARING
ALTERNATIVE FUNDING SCHEMESBernhard Eckwert, Bielefeld
University
CONTROLLED SCHOOL CHOICE
Lars Ehlers, U de MontrealCo-Author: Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Duke
University
13:15 - 14:45 PUBLIC ECONOMICS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Wilfredo
Maldonado, GraduateSchool in Economics - Catholic University
ofBrasília
Room 224
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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30
FUTURE RENT-SEEKING AND CURRENT PUBLIC SAVINGSPierre Yared,
Columbia UniversityCo-Author: Ricardo J. Caballero, MIT
ANALYZING THE CASE FOR A BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT
TO THE U.S. CONSTITUTIONMarco Battaglini, Princeton
UniversityCo-Authors: marina azzimonti, univ of texas and steve
coate,
WHO’S AFRAID OF POPULATION AGING?
Alexander Ueberfeldt, Bank of CanadaCo-Author: Danny Leung, Bank
of Canada
FINANCIAL CAPITAL IN A CGE MODEL FOR BRAZIL:
FORMULATION AND IMPLICATIONSWilfredo Maldonado, Graduate School
in Economics - CatholicUniversity of BrasíliaCo-Authors: Octávio
Tourinho, BNDES and Marcos Valli, Banco Centraldo Brasil
13:15 - 14:45 FINANCIAL ECONOMICS I (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Juan
Pablo Nicolini,Universidad Di Tella
Room 228
INFORMATION PERCOLATION WITH EQUILIBRIUM SEARCHDYNAMICSGustavo
Manso, MITCo-Authors: Darrell Duffie, Stanford University and
Semyon Malamud,ETH Zurich
TAYLOR SERIES APPROXIMATIONS TO EXPECTED UTILITY AND
OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CHOICELorenzo Garlappi, The University of
Texas at AustinCo-Author: Georgios Skoulakis, University of
Maryland
PORTFOLIO CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAIN LIFETIME
Antoine Bommier, Toulouse School of Economics
STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AND LEARNINGJuan Pablo Nicolini,
Universidad Di Tella
13:15 - 14:45 MONETARY POLICY AND REACTIONFUNCTIONS (LAMES
TAE)Chairperson: Sandra Lizarazo, InstitutoAutonomo de Mexico
Room 333
MODELING AN OPTIMAL PRICE LEVEL TARGET MONETARYPOLICYMirta
Bugarin, FUCAPE Business SchoolCo-Author: Gil Riella, Banco Central
do Brasil
DO CENTRAL BANKS RESPOND TO EXCHANGE RATE
MOVEMENTS? SOME NEW EVIDENCE FROM STRUCTURALESTIMATIONWei Dong,
Bank of Canada
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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31
FISCAL POLICY, PHILLIPS CURVE AND NONLINEARITIES INMONETARY
POLICY: THEORIES AND EVIDENCE FOR THEDOMINICAN REPUBLICRaul
Hernandez Baez, CIEF Consulting, Rutgers University,
PontificiaUniversidad Católica Madre y Maestra y Universidad
Católica de SantoDomingo.Co-Author: Juan Pimentel Aristy, CIEF
Consulting
MONEY, CREDIT AND DEFAULT
Sandra Lizarazo, Instituto Autonomo de MexicoCo-Author: Jose
Maria Da-Rocha, Research Group in EconomicAnalysis - Universidade
de Vigo
13:15 - 14:45 NETWORKS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Maria
Gomez-Rua,Universidade de Vigo
Room 345
SOCIAL LEARNING WITH A HIDDEN ACTIONHelios Herrera, Columbia
UniversityCo-Authors: Johannes Horner, Yale and Johannes
Horner,
DYNAMIC SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: IDENTIFICATION AND
CHARACTERIZATIONOnur Ozgur, University of MontrealCo-Author:
Alberto Bisin, New York University
IDENTITY AND FRAGMENTATION IN NETWORK
Pritha Dev, ITAM
NO ADVANTAGEOUS MERGING IN MINIMUM COST SPANNINGTREE
PROBLEMS.Maria Gomez-Rua, Universidade de VigoCo-Author: Juan J.
Vidal-Puga, Universidade de Vigo
13:15 - 14:45 AUCTIONS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Eiichiro
Kazumori, University ofTokyo
Room 347
CHARITY AUCTIONS FOR THE HAPPY FEWOlivier Bos, Paris School of
Economics and CORE
EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY AUCTIONS
Alejandro Jofré, Universidad de ChileCo-Author: Juan Escobar,
Stanford University
LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED COMPETING AUCTIONS
Ian King, University of MelbourneCo-Authors: Richard Dutu,
University of Waikato and Benoit Julien,University of New South
Wales
INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN UNIFORM PRICE DOUBLE
AUCTIONSEiichiro Kazumori, University of Tokyo
14:45 - 16:15 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLACEA
14:45 - 16:15 MACROECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Juan Pablo
Nicolini,Universidad Di Tella
Room Auditorium 2
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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32
TBAFernando Alvarez, University of Chicago
A MULTIPLIER APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE MACRO
IMPLICATIONS OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCEHarold L. Cole, University of
California, Los AngelesCo-Authors: YiLi Chien, Purdue University
and Hanno Lustig, UCLAand NBER
14:45 - 16:15 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson: Armando
Castelar, UFRJ andGávea Investimentos
Room Auditorium 3
NUDGING FARMERS TO USER FERTILIZER: EVIDENCE FROMKENYAMichel
Kremer, Harvard UniversityCo-Authors: Esther Duflo, MIT and
Jonathan Robinson, University ofCalifornia, Santa Cruz
EMPOWERING WOMEN: HOW OPORTUNIDADES IMPROVED
BIRTH OUTCOMESPaul Gertler, University of California,
Berkeley
14:45 - 16:15 POLITICAL ECONOMY I (LACEA)Chairperson: TBA
Room 224
THE THEORY OF POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INSTITUTIONS
ANDREFORMSFrançois Bourguignon, Paris School of EconomicsCo-Author:
Thierry Verdier, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
LAND POWER: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHILE
Jean Marie Baland, FUNDP
14:45 - 16:15 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLAMES
14:45 - 16:15 LABOR ECONOMICS (LAMES)Chairperson: Gustavo
Gonzaga, PUC-RIO
Room Auditorium 1
WAGE RISK AND EMPLOYMENT RISK OVER THE LIFE CYCLECostas Meghir,
University College LondonCo-Authors: Hamish Low, University of
Cambridge and IFS and LuigiPistaferri, Stanford University, SIEPR
and CEPR
ASSESSING THE EQUALIZING FORCE OF MOBILITY USING
SHORT PANELS: FRANCE, 1990-2000Jean-Marc Robin, Paris School of
EconomicsCo-Author: Stéphane Bonhomme, CEMFI
14:45 - 16:15 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (LAMES)Chairperson: V. Filipe
Martins-da-Rocha,Graduate School of Economics, GetulioVargas
Foundation
Room 228
VERIFYING COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA IN DYNAMIC ECONOMIESFelix
Kubler, University of Zurich
COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA IN SEMI-ALGEBRAIC ECONOMIES
Karl Schmedders, Northwestern UniversityCo-Author: Felix Kubler,
University of Zurich
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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33
14:45 - 16:15 HEALTH ECONOMICS ANDECONOMETRICS
(LAMES)Chairperson: André Souza, FGV
Room 232
MODELING RISK USING FOURTH ORDER PSEUDO MAXIMUMLIKELIHOOD
METHODSAlberto Holly, Université de Lausanne
MONITORING PRIORIZATION IN A PUBLIC HEALTH CARE
SECTORJan Erik Askildsen, University of BergenCo-Authors: Tor
Helge Holmås, University of Bergen and OddvarKaarbøe, University of
Bergen
16:15 - 16:30 COFFEE BREAK
16:30 - 18:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLACEA
16:30 - 18:00 CAF PANEL ON DECENTRALIZATIONAND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT
(LACEA)Chairperson: Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT
This Session is sponsored by CAF
Room Auditorium 1
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS CAPACITY AND PERFORMANCE:EVIDENCE FROM
PERUVIAN MUNICIPALITIESFernando Aragon, London School of
Economics
DECENTRALIZATION AND ACCESS TO SOCIAL SERVICES IN
COLOMBIAJean-Paul Faguet, London School of Economics
COORDINATING TO LIMIT POLLUTION SPILLOVERS UNDER
DECENTRALIZED MANAGEMENT OF WATER IN BRAZILMushfiq Mobarak, Yale
University
16:30 - 18:00 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION:CLIMATE CHANGE IN
LATIN AMERICA:IMPACTS AND POLICY RESPONSES(LACEA)Chairperson:
Justin Lin, Chief Economist forthe World Bank
This Session is Sponsored by the WorldBank
Room Auditorium 2
EQUITY AND EFFICIENCY IN THE GREENHOUSE: RESPONDINGTO CLIMATE
CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICAPablo Fajnzylber, World BankCo-Author: John
D. Nash, World Bank
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND
POVERTYJuliano Assunção, Departamento de Economia
PUC-RioCo-Author: Flávia Chein, CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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34
A TAX–BASED APPROACH TO SLOWING GLOBAL CLIMATECHANGEEduardo Ley,
The World BankCo-Authors: Joseph E. Aldy, Resources for the Future
and Ian Parry,Resources for the Future
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BRAZILIAN
AGRICULTUREEustaquio Reis, IPEACo-Authors: José Gustavo Feres,
IPEA and Juliana Speranza, IPEA
16:30 - 18:00 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: STRESSINGTHE ANCHOR:
COMMODITY PRICESHOCKS, EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, AND INFLATION
TARGETING(LACEA)Chairperson: Luis Catao, Inter-AmericanDevelopment
Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
Room Auditorium 3
MUNDELL-FLEMING REVISITED: THE ROLE OF TRADEOPENNESSMichael
Kumhof, IMFCo-Authors: Guillermo Calvo, Columbia University and
Ondra Kamenik,Czech National Bank and IMF
FOOD PRICE SHOCKS AND OPTIMAL INFLATION TARGETING
Luis Catao, Inter-American Development BankDiscussant(s): Ilan
Goldfajn, Founding Partner, Ciano Investments, andProfessor,
PUC-RJCo-Author: Roberto Chang, Rutgers University
INFLATION TARGETING UNDER IMPERFECT POLICY
CREDIBILITYAli Alichi, IMFDiscussant(s): Alessandro Rebucci,
Inter-American Development BankCo-Authors: Marianne Johnson, Bank
of Canada and Douglas Laxton,IMF
16:30 - 18:00 POVERTY AND WELFARE I (LACEA)Chairperson: Emmanuel
Skoufias, The WorldBank (MC4-415)
Room 201
DO CHANGES IN INCOME AFFECT MORTALITY? THE CASE OFMEXICOFidel
Gonzalez, Sam Houston State UniversityCo-Author: Troy Quast, Sam
Houston State University
REPEAT CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN
BRAZILJose Raimundo Carvalho, CAEN/UFCCo-Author: Sylvia Lavor,
CAEN/UFC
INTRA-HOUSEHOLD REDISTRIBUTION AND HEALTH
PERCEPTIONSSamanta Sacramento dos Reis Monte, Center for Social
Policies/IBRE /Fundação Getulio VargasCo-Authors: Luísa Carvalhaes,
Center for Social Policies/IBRE -Fundação Getulio Vargas and
Marcelo Cortes Neri, Fundação GetúlioVargas
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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THE SOURCES OF WELFARE DISPARITIES ACROSS AND WITHINREGIONS OF
BRAZIL: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2002-03 POFEmmanuel Skoufias, The World
Bank (MC4-415)Co-Author: Roy Katayama, The World Bank
16:30 - 18:00 MACROECONOMICS: CENTRAL BANKS(LACEA)Chairperson:
Herman Kamil, InternationalMonetary Fund
Room 206
BANKING ON POLITICSMatias Braun, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez &
IM TrustCo-Author: Claudio Raddatz, World Bank
DO LATIN AMERICAN CENTRAL BANKERS BEHAVE NON-
LINEARLY? THE EXPERIENCE OF BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIAAND
MEXICO.Matteo Mogliani, Paris School of EconomicsCo-Authors: Luiz
de Mello, OECD and Diego Moccero, OECD
THE EFFECTS OF THE GLOBALIZATION ON BRAZILIAN
INFLATIONRafael Chaves Santos, Policy Advisor - Central Bank of
BrazilCo-Author: Marcia Leon, BCB
DOES FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION WORK FOR
INFLATION TARGETERS? THE CASE OF COLOMBIAHerman Kamil,
International Monetary Fund
16:30 - 18:00 DEVELOPMENT: POLICY ANALYSIS(LACEA)Chairperson:
Rafael Di Tella, HarvardBusiness School
Room 232
PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION: CAUSALEVIDENCE FOR
BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIESEnlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation
- Sao Paulo School ofEconomicsCo-Author: Vitor França, Getulio
Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo Schoolof Economics
DECENTRALIZATION AND EDUCATION PERFORMANCE: A FIRST
VIEW TO THE BRAZILIAN PROCESSMaria Carolina Leme, Escola de
Economia de São Paulo FundaçãoGetulio VargasCo-Authors: Ricardo
Paredes, Universidad Católica de Chile and AndréSouza, FGV
RE-EVALUATING CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS: IS THE
OPORTUNIDADES PRIMARY SCHOOL STIPEND NECESSARY?Marta
Rubio-Codina, University College of LondonCo-Author: Orazio
Attanasio, University College London and Institutefor Fiscal
Studies
REALITY VERSUS PROPAGANDA IN THE FORMATION OF
BELIEFS ABOUT WATER PRIVATIZATIONRafael Di Tella, Harvard
Business SchoolCo-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University
in St Louis andErnesto Schargrodsky, Universidad Torcuato Di
Tella
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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16:30 - 18:00 POLITICAL ECONOMY I (LACEA)Chairperson: Alberto
Pinto, Universidade doMinho
Room 236
THE CHOICES GOVERNORS MAKE: THE ROLE OF CHECKS &BALANCES AND
POLITICAL COMPETITIONMarcus Melo, University of
PernambucoCo-Authors: Lee Alston, University of Colorado, Bernardo
Mueller,CERME - University of Brasilia and Carlos Pereira, Michigan
StateUniversity
LOBBYING AND INFORMATION TRANSMISSION IN CUSTOMS
UNIONSRafael Costa Lima, FGV/EPGECo-Authors: Humberto Moreira,
FGV -- EPGE and Thierry Verdier,Paris-Jourdan Sciences
Economiques
COORDINATION EXTERNALITIES IN FEDERAL SYSTEMS
Antoine Loeper, Kellogg School of Management,
NorthwesternUniversity
SIGNALLING TO THE HOME POLICYMAKER
Alberto Pinto, Universidade do MinhoCo-Authors: Fernanda A.
Ferreira, ESEIG, Instituto Politécnico do Portoand Humberto
Moreira, FGV -- EPGE
16:30 - 18:00 MACROECONOMICS: EXTERNALSHOCKS (LACEA)Chairperson:
Sebastian Sosa, InternationalMonetary Fund
Room 331
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SHOCKS IN EMERGING
MARKETECONOMIESMichael Brei, Bonn Graduate School of
EconomicsCo-Author: Almira Buzaushina, Bonn Graduate School of
Economics
GLOBAL CREDIT SHOCKS, REAL INTEREST RATE AND
BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING ECONOMIESSarquis Sarquis, IRBr
(Brazil), FMG/LSE (UK)
BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS IN CURRENCY CRISES: EVIDENCE
FROM BRAZILMarcio Janot, Banco Central do Brasil e
PUC-RioCo-Authors: Márcio G. P. Garcia, PUC-Rio and Walter Novaes,
PUC-Rio
EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS IN
MEXICO: HOW IMPORTANT ARE U.S. FACTORS?Sebastian Sosa,
International Monetary Fund
16:30 - 18:00 FAMILY AND EDUCATION I (LACEA)Chairperson: André
Souza, FGV
Room 335
SOCIAL SECURITY EFFECTS ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION:COUNTERFACTUAL
ANALYSIS FOR BRAZILRodrigo Moura, EPGE/FGVCo-Authors: Jaime Jesus
Filho, University of Chicago, Ligia Ourives,EPGE/FGV and Brazilian
National Treasury Secretariat and PauloTafner, IPEA
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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TRENDS IN INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS ANDEDUCATIONAL MOBILITY:
THE CASE OF CHILELeslie Miranda, Centro de Microdatos, Universidad
de ChileCo-Author: Javier Nuñez, Universidad de Chile
DOES THE GRADIENT MATTER? FURTHER UNDERSTANDING
THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF HUMAN CAPITALAndré Souza,
FGVCo-Author: George Jakubson, Cornell Univeristy
IDENTITY AND EDUCATIONAL CHOICE: A BEHAVIORAL
APPROACHYuemei Ji, K.U.Leuven
16:30 - 18:00 BANKING (LACEA)Chairperson: Marcio Nakane, Sao
PauloUniversity
Room 349
IDENTIFYING BANK LENDING REACTION TO MONETARY POLICYTHROUGH DATA
FREQUENCYChristiano Arrigoni Coelho, PUC-RioCo-Authors: João Manoel
De Mello, PUC-Rio and Márcio G. P. Garcia,PUC-Rio
IS THE BRAZILIAN BANKING SYSTEM COMPETITIVE?
Claudio Lucinda, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
BANK LOAN SECURITIZATION: AN ALTERNATIVE FOR BANKS TOFIND
LIQUIDITYMónica Vargas Martínez, Universidad del Rosario
ENTRIES, EXITS AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION: AN ANALYSIS
OF THE BANKING INTERMEDIATION IN BRAZILMarcio Nakane, Sao Paulo
UniversityCo-Author: Bruno Rocha, Tendências Consultoria
Integrada
16:30 - 18:00 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS I (LACEA)Chairperson:
Facundo Albornoz, University ofBirmingham
Room 401
TAX POLICY AS A COMPETITIVENESS MECHANISM TO
ATTRACTMANUFACTURING FDI INFLOWS: AN APPLICATION TO
THELATIN-AMERICANFernando Mesa, National Planning Department,
ColombiaCo-Author: Rafael Isidro Parra-Pena Somoza, Researcher for
ECLAC(U.N)
PRODUCTION SHARING AND BUSINESS CYCLE CO-MOVEMENTS
WITH HETEROGENEOUS FIRMSAndrei Zlate, Boston College
CHRONICLE OF LARGE CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS: RE-
EXAMINING THE EFFECTS ON OUTPUTCamilo Tovar, Bank for
International SettlementsCo-Author: Sweta Saxena, Bank for
International Settlements
INVESTMENT AND EXPROPRIATION UNDER OLIGARCHY AND
DEMOCRACY IN A HECKSCHER-OHLIN WORLDFacundo Albornoz, University
of BirminghamCo-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University
in St Louis andDaniel Heymann, Cepal
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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16:30 - 18:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Econometrics and Empirical Economics
16:30 - 18:00 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT I (LAMESEEE)Chairperson:
Eduardo Martinez-Chombo,Banco de Mexico
Room 130
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: BEYONDBANKS AND STOCK
MARKETS, THE ROLE OF INSURANCEMARKETS. A CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY FOR
INDUSTRIALIZEDAND DEVELOPING COUNTRIESMarco Arena, World Bank
THE INFLUENCE OF TOURISM OVER ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE
MEXICAN CASEJosé Luis de la Cruz Gallegos, Tecnológico de
Monterrey, campusEstado de MéxicoCo-Authors: Carlos Canfield,
Tecnológico de Monterrey, campusEstado de México and Eduardo
Carbajal , Tecnológico de Monterrey,campus Estado de México
HETEROGENEITIES AND VOLATILITY: CONVERGENCE IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIESMaria Elisa Farias, Universidad de Chile
LAG STRUCTURE BETWEEN ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE
AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MEXICOEduardo Martinez-Chombo, Banco de
Mexico
16:30 - 18:00 TREATMENT EFFECTS AND ANALISYSOF EDUCATION (LAMES
EEE)Chairperson: Eskil Heinesen, AKF, DanishInstitute of
Governmental Research
Room 132
THE IMPACT OF THE BOLSA ESCOLA/FAMILIA CONDITIONALCASH TRANSFER
PROGRAM ON ENROLLMENT, DROP OUTRATES AND GRADE PROMOTION IN
BRAZILAna Lucia Kassouf, Esalq, Universidade Sao PauloCo-Author:
Paul Glewwe, University of Minnesota
SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF PEER EFFECTS IN
CLASSROOMS: EVIDENCE FOR BRAZILIAN SCHOOLS IN 2003Cristine
Campos de Xavier Pinto, CEDEPLAR/UFMG
FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF SEMIPARAMETRIC
ESTIMATORS OF AVERAGE TREATMENT EFFECTSMatias Busso,
Inter-American Development Bank
ESTIMATING CLASS-SIZE EFFECTS USING WITHIN-SCHOOL
VARIATION IN SUBJECT-SPECIFIC CLASSESEskil Heinesen, AKF, Danish
Institute of Governmental Research
16:30 - 18:00 MIGRATION (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Christian Bayer,
IGIER,Università Commerciale L. Bocconi
Room 329
THE EFFECT OF MIGRANT NETWORKS ON MEXICAN MIGRATIONSu-Hsin
Chang, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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39
INTERNAL MIGRATION, SELECTION BIAS AND REGIONALRETURNS TO
SCHOOLING IN BRAZILEduardo Ribeiro, Institute of Economics /
UFRJCo-Author: Viviane Bastos, Georgia State University
CONVERGENCE IN THE UNITED STATES: A TALE OF MIGRATION
AND URBANIZATIONRiccardo DiCecio, FRB of St. LouisCo-Author:
Charles Gascon, FRB of St. Louis
ON THE DYNAMICS OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION: MIGRATION
COSTS AND SELF-SELECTIONChristian Bayer, IGIER, Università
Commerciale L. BocconiCo-Author: Falko Juessen, TU Dortmund
University
16:30 - 18:00 ECONOMETRIC THEORY I (LAMES EEE)Chairperson:
Valderio Reisen, UFES
Room 345
TESTING FOR SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS IN PSEUDO PANELS:THEORY AND
MONTE CARLOJhon Mora, Universidad ICESICo-Author: Juan Muro,
Universidad de Alcala
BOOTSTRAP FOR PANEL REGRESSION MODELS WITH RANDOM
EFFECTSBertrand Hounkannounon, Department of Economics,
Université deMontréal
PENALIZED QUANTILE REGRESSION IN SPARSE HIGH-
DIMENSIONAL MODELSAlexandre Belloni, Duke UniversityCo-Author:
Victor Chernozhukov,
BOOTSTRAP LOG-AVERAGE SAMPLE SPECTRAL ESTIMATOR
OF THE FRACTIONAL PARAMETER IN ARFIMA MODELSValderio Reisen,
UFESCo-Authors: Giovanni Comarela, UFES and Glaura Franco, UFMG
16:30 - 18:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Theoretical and Applied Economics
16:30 - 18:00 EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS (LAMESTAE)Chairperson: Juan
Dubra, Universidad deMontevideo
Room 224
SOCIAL LEARNING THROUGH ENDOGENOUS INFORMATIONACQUISITION: AN
EXPERIMENTBogachan Celen, Columbia UniversityCo-Author: Kyle
Hyndman, SMU
HOW COSTLY IS DIVERSITY? AFFIRMATIVE ACTION IN LIGHT OF
GENDER DIFFERENCES IN COMPETITIVENESSSegal Carmit, Universitat
Pompeu FabraCo-Authors: Muriel Niederle, Stanford University and
Lise Vesterlund,University of Pittsburgh
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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40
ARE VIOLATIONS OF INDEPENDENCE ERRORS? ANEXPERIMENTAL
INVESTIGATIONUlrich Schmidt, University of KielCo-Author: Michael
Birnbaum, CSUF
OVERCONFIDENCE?
Juan Dubra, Universidad de MontevideoCo-Author: Jean-Pierre
Benoit, London Business School
16:30 - 18:00 NONCOOPERATIVE GAMES (LAMES TAE)Chairperson:
Sergio O. Parreiras, Universityof North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Room 228
MULTIPLE OPPONENTS AND THE LIMITS OF REPUTATIONSambuddha Ghosh,
Boston Univ., Princeton Univ.
ON RISK AVERSION IN THE RUBINSTEIN BARGAINING GAME
Emanuel Kohlscheen, University of WarwickCo-Author: Steve
O'Connell, Swarthmore College
ON THE EXISTENCE OF NASH EQUILIBRIA IN DISCONTINUOUS
AND QUALITATIVE GAMESPaulo Barelli, University of
RochesterCo-Author: Idione Soza, University of Rochester
CONTESTS WITH THREE OR MORE HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS
Sergio O. Parreiras, University of North Carolina at Chapel
HillCo-Author: Anna Rubinchik, University of Colorado at
Boulder
16:30 - 18:00 RBC MODELS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Alexandre
Cunha, IBMECBusiness School - Rio de Janeiro
Room 333
CYCLICAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING, INCOME INEQUALITY ANDWELFARE IN
SMALL OPEN ECONOMIESG.C. Lim, University of MelbourneCo-Author:
Paul McNelis, Fordham University
GOVERNMENT SIZE AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY: THE
ROLE OF DEMOGRAPHICSAlexandre Janiak, CEA, University of Chile
and IZACo-Author: Paulo Santos-Monteiro, Warwick
IMMIGRATION AND THE MACROECONOMY: AN INTERNATIONAL
REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELFederico Mandelman, Federal Reserve
Bank of AtlantaCo-Author: Andrei Zlate, Boston College
IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODIGLIANI-MILLER THEOREM FOR THE
STUDY OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMESAlexandre Cunha, IBMEC Business
School - Rio de Janeiro
16:30 - 18:00 PREFERENCES AND DECISION-MAKING I(LAMES
TAE)Chairperson: Ricard Torres, ITAM andUniversitat de Girona
Room 347
ROBUST HIDDEN MARKOV LQG PROBLEMSRicardo Mayer, University of
Chicago and UDPCo-Authors: Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago
and ThomasSargent, New York University
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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41
ADDITIVE SEPARABILITY, OPTIMIZATION, AND TRIVIAL WEBSThomas
Russell, Santa Clara University
OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION UNDER LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AND
BOUNDED RATIONALITYÖzak Ömer, Brown UniversityCo-Author: Peter
Howitt, Brown University
STATE SPACE DIMENSIONS AND BELIEF UPDATING
Ricard Torres, ITAM and Universitat de Girona
18:00 - 19:00 LACEA PLENARY SESSIONS
18:00 - 19:00 IDB SPECIAL SESSION: SCIENCE OF HAPPINESS
(18-19HS) (LACEA)Chairperson: Jere Behrman, University of
PennsylvaniaDiscussant: Carol Graham, Brookings Institution
This Session is Sponsored by the IDB
Room Auditorium 1
BOOK PRESENTATION: "BEYOND FACTS, UNDERSTANDINGQUALITY OF
LIFE"Eduardo Lora, Chief Economist and General Manager,
ResearchDepartment, IDB
SPEAKER
Bernard Van Praag, Amsterdam University
18:00 - 19:00 BIS ROUND TABLE: CHALLENGES TO INFLATIONTARGETING
(LACEA)Chairperson: Mar Gudmundsson, Deputy Head of the BISMonetary
and Economic Department
This Session is sponsored by the BIS
Room Auditorium 2
PANELIST 1José De Gregorio, Governor - Central Bank of Chile
PANELIST 2
John Murray, Deputy Governor - Bank of Canada
PANELIST 3Mario Torós, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy
PANELIST 4
Guillermo Calvo, Professor of Economics, International &
Public Affairs- Columbia University
18:00 - 19:30 LAMES INVITED SESSIONS
18:00 - 19:30 CONSUMER PROTECTION AND
ENFORCEMENT(LAMES)Chairperson: Luis Fernando Schuartz, FGV-RJ
Room Auditorium 3
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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CONSUMER PROTECTION AND THE INCENTIVE TO BECOMEINFORMEDMark
Armstrong, Department of Economics, University College
LondonCo-Author(s): John Vickers, All Souls College, University of
Oxford andJidong Zhou, Department of Economics, University College
London
LET THE PUNISHMENT FIT THE CRIME: ENFORCEMENT WITH
ERRORPreston McAfee, Caltech, YahooCo-Author(s): Indranil
Chakraborty, National University of Singapore
18:00 - 19:30 IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF MODELSUSING PANEL
DATA (LAMES)Chairperson: Ignacio Lobato, ITAM
Room 224
IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF 'IRREGULAR'CORRELATED RANDOM
COEFFICIENT MODELSJames Powell, University of California,
BerkeleyCo-Author(s): Bryan S. Graham, University of California,
Berkeley
A MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD FOR THE INCIDENTAL
PARAMETER PROBLEMMarcelo J. Moreira, Columbia University and
EPGE/FGV
18:00 - 19:30 FINANCE (LAMES)Chairperson: Jorge Zubelli,
IMPA
Room 228
RISK AVERSION AND THE ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION INGENERAL
DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO THEORY: CONSISTENTPLANNING BY FORWARD LOOKING,
EXPECTED UTILITYMAXIMIZING INVESTORSRichard E. Kihlstrom,
University of Pennsylvania
HISTORICAL VOLATILITY ESTIMATION
Bruno Dupire, Bloomberg L.P./NYU
19:00 - 20:00 LACEA PLENARY SESSION
19:00 - 20:00 WORLD BANK SPONSORED PLENARY SESSION:EMERGING
MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY:LESSONS FROM BRICS
(LACEA)Chairperson: Alexandre Tombini, Director of Norms -Brazilian
Central Bank
This Session is Sponsored by the World Bank
Room Auditorium 2
PANELIST 1Justin Lin, Chief Economist for the World Bank
PANELIST 2
Abhijit Banerjee, MIT
PANELIST 3Armínio Fraga, Gávea Investimentos
20:00 COCKTAIL
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
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FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
DAY OVERVIEW
08:15 - 09:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions09:45 - 10:00
Coffee Break10:00 - 11:00 Invited Lectures11:00 - 12:30 Invited
Lectures and Sessions and Sponsored Session12:30 - 13:15 Lunch13:15
- 14:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions14:45 - 16:15 Invited and
Sponsored Lectures16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break16:30 - 17:30 Keynote
Lecture17:30 - 18:30 Invited Lectures18:30 - 19:30 Plenary Session
and Presidential Address20:30 Conference Dinner
08:15 - 09:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLACEA
08:15 - 09:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION:REASSESSING QUALITY OF
EDUCATIONIN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN(LACEA)Chairperson:
Suzanne Duryea, Inter-American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
Room Auditorium 1
PANELIST 1Jorge Manzi, Universidad Católica de Chile
PANELIST 2
Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
08:15 - 09:45 OECD LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMICOUTLOOK
(LACEA)Chairperson: Jeff Dayton-Johnson, OECD
Room Auditorium 2
PANELIST 1Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for
InternationalDevelopment, Harvard University
PANELIST 2
Augusto de la Torre, Chief Economist for Latin America and
theCaribbean, World Bank
PANELIST 3
Eduardo Lora, Chief Economist and General Manager,
ResearchDepartment, IDB
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44
PANELIST 4Mariano Tommasi, Professor of Economics, Universidad
de San Andresand Director of the Center of Studies for
Institutional Development
PANELIST 5
Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA
PANELIST 6Ernesto Stein, Lead Research Economist at Research
Department,Inter-American Development Bank
PANELIST 7
Ugo Panizza, Unctad
PANELIST 8Ernesto Talvi, Executive Director, CERES
08:15 - 09:45 BBVA SPONSORED SESSION: ASIA ANDLATIN AMERICA
FACING THE CRISIS:HOW MUCH CONTAGION, HOW MUCHDECOUPLING?
(LACEA)Chairperson: Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
This Session is Sponsored by BBVA
Room Auditorium 3
PANELIST 1Alicia Garcia Herrero, BBVA
PANELIST 2
Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
PANELIST 3Antoni Estevadeordal, Inter-American Development
Bank
PANELIST 4
Hiro Kawai, World Bank
08:15 - 09:45 LABOR ECONOMICS III (LACEA)Chairperson: Manuel
Barron, InternationalFood Policy Research Institute
Room 206
REGIONAL IMBALANCES AND MARKET POTENTIAL IN BRAZILMauro LEMOS,
Cedeplar/UFMGCo-Authors: Pedro Amaral, CEDEPLAR/UFMG, Flávia
Chein,CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG and Rodrigo SIMÕES, Cedeplar/UFMG
MEXICO IN THE 1990S: THE MAIN CROSS-SECTIONAL FACTS
Chiara Binelli, Oxford UniversityCo-Author: Orazio Attanasio,
University College London and Institutefor Fiscal Studies
TRANSANTIAGO AND THE LABOR MARKET
David Bravo, Centro de Microdatos, Departamento de
Economia,Universidad de ChileCo-Author: claudia martinez, Centro de
Microdatos, Dept. Economics,Universidad de Chile
DETERMINANTS OF TIME ALLOCATION TO RURAL NON-FARM
EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA: THE ROLE OFINFRASTRUCTURE AND
EDUCATIONManuel Barron, International Food Policy Research
InstituteCo-Author: Maximo Torero, IFPRI
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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45
08:15 - 09:45 CREDIT AND BANKRUPTCY (LACEA)Chairperson: Susan
Schommer, IMPA -Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura eAplicada
Room 232
DO REORGANIZATION COSTS MATTER FOR EFFICIENCY?EVIDENCE FROM A
BANKRUPTCY REFORM IN COLOMBIAInessa Love, The World BankCo-Author:
Xavier Gine, The World bank
CREDIT CARD HOLDING AND USAGE IN MEXICO: EVIDENCE
FROM THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLDS' INCOME ANDEXPENDITURES
2006Castellanos Sara, Secretaría de Economía, MéxicoCo-Author:
Daniel Garrido, Banco de México
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS AND THE DEMAND FOR HIGHER
EDUCATION IN LATIN AMERICAMariana Alfonso, Inter-American
Development Bank
REGULATED COLLATERAL WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS
Susan Schommer, IMPA - Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura
eAplicadaCo-Authors: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA and Felix
Kubler,University of Zurich
08:15 - 09:45 MONETARY POLICY I (LACEA)Chairperson: Michael
Binder, GoetheUniversity Frankfurt
Room 236
OPTIMAL MONETARY AND AUDIT POLICY WITH IMPERFECTTAXATIONMarcelo
Arbex, University of WindsorCo-Author: Nurlan Turdaliev, University
of Windsor
OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY UNDER ASSET MARKET
SEGMENTATIONRajesh Singh, Iowa State UniversityCo-Authors:
Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia and CarlosVegh,
university of maryland
WHAT CAN TAYLOR RULES SAY ABOUT MONETARY POLICY IN
LATIN AMERICA?Alexandre de Carvalho, IBMEC SÃO PAULOCo-Author:
Marcelo Moura, IBMEC SAO PAULO
ON THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS ON
EXCHANGE RATES: A MULTILATERAL VECTOR ERRORCORRECTION
APPROACHMichael Binder, Goethe University FrankfurtCo-Authors:
Qianying Chen, Goethe University Frankfurt and XuanZhang, Goethe
University Frankfurt
08:15 - 09:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME I (LACEA)Chairperson: Igor
Barenboim, HarvardUniversity
Room 329
GUN CONTROL, CRIME AND RISK AVERSIONCristiano Aguiar de
Oliveira, UFRGS
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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46
PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HOMICIDES: AN EVALUATIONOF IMPACT IN
BRAZILBetânia Peixoto, CEDEPLAR/UFMG; FJPCo-Authors: Joao Pedro
Azevedo, World Bank and Monica ViegasAndrade, CEDEPLAR-UFMG
DOES CRIME BREED INEQUALITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE
FAVELAS OF RIO DE JANEIROIgor Barenboim, Harvard
UniversityCo-Author: Filipe Campante, Harvard University
08:15 - 09:45 SOCIAL INTERACTIONS (LACEA)Chairperson: Renos
Vakis, World Bank
Room 331
NETWORK STRUCTURE IN A LINK FORMATION GAME: ANEXPERIMENTAL
STUDYRoberto Muñoz, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa
MaríaCo-Authors: Alexander Elbittar, Centro de Investigación y
DocenciaEconomicas (CIDE) and Rodrigo Harrison, Pontificia
UniversidadCatólica de Chile
DO WELFARE PROGRAMS DAMAGE INTERPERSONAL TRUST?
EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLESFOR FOUR LATIN
AMERICAN CITIESF. Vanessa Rios, Inter-American Development
BankCo-Authors: Alberto Chong, Inter-American Development Bank
andHugo Nopo, Inter-American Development Bank
THE ROLE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL ON INDIVIDUAL INCOMES IN
BRAZILAlexandre Barros, Federal University of
PernambucoCo-Author: Cristiane Mesquita, PIMES - Federal University
ofPernambuco
CHANGING HOUSEHOLDS’ INVESTMENTS AND ASPIRATIONS
THROUGH SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM ARANDOMIZED TRANSFER
PROGRAM IN A LOW-INCOMECOUNTRYRenos Vakis, World BankCo-Author:
Karen Macours, Johns Hopkins University
08:15 - 09:45 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (LACEA)Chairperson:
Alessandro Maffioli, Inter-American Development Bank
Room 335
A HARD ROW TO HOE: SMALL-SCALE FARMING ON THEBRAZILIAN AMAZON
FRONTIER UNDER INCOMPLETE PROPERTYRIGHTSRobert Tatum, University of
North Carolina - Asheville
AMBIGUITY AVERSION AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE IN SMALL-
SCALE PERUVIAN FARMINGSonia Laszlo, McGill UniversityCo-Authors:
Jim Engle-Warnick, McGill University and Javier Escobal,GRADE
TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION IN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS
Pilar Useche, University of Florida
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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47
THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES: THECASE OF GRAPE
PRODUCTION IN ARGENTINAAlessandro Maffioli, Inter-American
Development BankCo-Authors: Pedro Cerdán-Infantes, Inter-American
Development Bankand Diego Ubfal, University of California at Los
Angeles
08:15 - 09:45 POVERTY AND WELFARE II (LACEA)Chairperson: Diego
Arias, World Bank
Room 349
NUTRITIONAL SUPPLEMENTATION OF GIRLS INFLUENCES THEGROWTH OF
THEIR CHILDREN: PROSPECTIVE STUDY INGUATEMALAMaria Cecilia
Calderon, University of PennsylvaniaCo-Authors: Jere Behrman,
University of Pennsylvania, John Hoddinott,International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), ReynaldoMartorell, Emory
University, Samuel Preston, University ofPennsylvania and Aryeh
Stein, Emory University
CHRONIC VERSUS ACUTE CONDITIONS: UNDERSTANDING THE
INCOME GRADIENT IN BRAZILAnna Crespo, Princeton University
THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE INCREASES ON POVERTY IN
MEXICOJuan Carlos Chavez, CEFP / Universidad de
GuanajuatoCo-Author: Hector J. Villarreal, EGAP ITESM / CEFP
HAITI’S FOOD SUPPORT STRUCTURE: RESPONDING TO THE
FOOD CRISISDiego Arias, World BankCo-Authors: Giau Nguyen,
Harvard University, Hector Pena, Universityof Essex and Christopher
Sutton, Harvard University
08:15 - 09:45 FINANCIAL CRISIS (LACEA)Chairperson: Jihad Dagher,
InternationalMonetary Fund
Room 401
CREDIT CHANNEL AND FLIGHT TO QUALITY IN EMERGINGMARKETS:
EVIDENCE FROM CHILERodrigo Troncoso, Universidad Diego Portales
FINANCIAL FRICTIONS, CRISES AND RECOVERIES
Guillermo Ordonez, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
EFFECTS OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS ON OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE:AN
EMPIRICAL EVALUATIONGabriel Madeira, Universidade de São Paulo
SUDDEN STOPS, OUTPUT DROPS AND CREDIT COLLAPSES
Jihad Dagher, International Monetary Fund
08:15 - 09:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Econometrics and Empirical Economics
08:15 - 09:45 TESTING: DENSITY AND UNIT ROOT(LAMES
EEE)Chairperson: Jesus Otero, Universidad delRosario
Room 132
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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48
ROOT-N-UNIFORMLY CONSISTENT DENSITY ESTIMATION INNONPARAMETRIC
REGRESSION MODELSDavid Tomás Jacho-Chávez, Indiana
UniversityCo-Author: Juan Carlos Escanciano, Indiana University
SMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED
AVERAGE DERIVATIVESMatias Cattaneo, University of
MichiganCo-Authors: Richard Crump, University of California at
Berkeley andMichael Jansson, University of California at
Berkeley
UNIT ROOT TESTING WITH STATIONARY COVARIATES AND A
STRUCTURAL BREAK IN THE TREND FUNCTIONSebastian Fossati,
University of Washington
TESTING FOR UNIT ROOTS IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL
HETEROGENEOUS PANELS IN THE PRESENCE OF CROSS-SECTIONAL
DEPENDENCEJesus Otero, Universidad del RosarioCo-Authors: Giulietti
Monica, Aston Business School and Jeremy Smith,University of
Warwick
08:15 - 09:45 PUBLIC FINANCE (LAMES EEE)Chairperson: Enlinson
Mattos, GetulioVargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School ofEconomics
Room 345
3-STEP ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC FINANCES SUSTAINABILITY: THECASE OF
THE EUROPEAN UNIONAntonio Afonso, ECB and ISEG/UTL
DEMOCRACY AND REFORMS
Prachi Mishra, Research Department, IMF and Antonio
Spilimbergo,IMFCo-Author: Paola Giuliano, UCLA
RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE THEOREM IN ''A FEW LINES''
Jaime Orrillo, Catholic University of BrasiliaCo-Author: Jose
Angelo Divino, Catholic University of Brasilia
ON THE MARGINAL SOCIAL COST OF CASH-CUM-IN-KIND
TRANSFERSEnlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo
School ofEconomicsCo-Authors: Lucas Duarte, Getulio Vargas
Foundation - Sao PauloSchool of Economics and Juliana Serillo,
Getulio Vargas Foundation -Sao Paulo School of Economics
08:15 - 09:45 ECONOMETRIC THEORY:MACROECONOMICS (LAMES
EEE)Chairperson: Eduardo Ley, The World Bank
Room 347
A FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING STRUCTURAL DYNAMICMODELS WITH
AGGREGATE SHOCKS WITH AN APPLICATION TOMORTGAGE DEFAULT IN COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 1997 AND 2004Juan Esteban Carranza, University of
Wisconsin-MadisonCo-Author: Salvador Navarro, University of
Wisconsin-Madison
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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49
EFFICIENT LIKELIHOOD EVALUATION OF NONLINEAR RBCMODELSGuilherme
Valle Moura, University of Kiel, GermanyCo-Authors: David DeJong,
University of Pittsburgh, Roman Lisenfeld,University of Kiel and
Jean-Francois Richard, University of Pittsburgh
IMPULSE RESPONSE MODELS IN VARIANCE AND COVARIANCE
Christos Ioannidis, School of Management-Univerisyt of
BathCo-Author: Julian Williams, university of aberdeen
ON THE EFFECT OF PRIOR ASSUMPTIONS IN BAYESIAN MODEL
AVERAGING WITH APPLICATIONS TO GROWTH REGRESSIONEduardo Ley, The
World BankCo-Author: Mark Steel, University of Warwick
08:15 - 09:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLAMES -
Theoretical and Applied Economics
08:15 - 09:45 PRICE DYNAMICS (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Oleksiy
Kryvtsov, Bank ofCanada
Room 130
CAN EXCHANGE RATES FORECAST COMMODITY PRICES?Yu-chin Chen,
University of WashingtonCo-Authors: Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard
University and Barbara Rossi,Duke University
WAGE AND PRICE DYNAMICS IN PORTUGAL
Carlos Robalo Marques, Banco de Portugal
A MULTI-SECTORAL APPROACH TO THE U.S. GREATDEPRESSIONPedro
Amaral, Southern Methodist UniversityCo-Author: James MacGee,
University of western Ontario
INVENTORIES, MARKUPS, AND REAL RIGIDITIES IN MENU COST
MODELSOleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada
08:15 - 09:45 FINANCIAL ECONOMICS II (LAMES TAE)Chairperson:
Georgios Skoulakis, Universityof Maryland
Room 224
CHERRY-PICKING AND ASSET COMPLEXITY: A THEORY OFRATINGS
INFLATIONVasiliki Skreta, NYU, Stern School of BusinessCo-Author:
Laura Veldkamp, NYU, Stern
PUBLIC INFORMATION AND COORDINATION: EVIDENCE FROM A
CREDIT REGISTRY EXPANSIONDaniel Paravisini, Columbia
UniversityCo-Authors: Andrew Hertzberg, Columbia University and
Jose Liberti,DePaul University
NONPARAMETRIC LINEAR REGRESSION TO SPOT THE
VOLATILITYIsabel Casas, CREATES (University of Aarhus)Co-Author:
Irene Gijbels, K.U. Leuven
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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50
DO SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS EXPLAIN ASSET PRICINGPUZZLES?Georgios
Skoulakis, University of MarylandCo-Author: Gurdip Bakshi,
University of Maryland
08:15 - 09:45 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM I (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: V.
Filipe Martins-da-Rocha,Graduate School of Economics, GetulioVargas
Foundation
Room 228
THE DYNAMICS OF EFFICIENT ASSET TRADING WITHHETEROGENEOUS
BELIEFSEmilio Espino, Universidad Torcuato Di TellaCo-Author: Pablo
Beker, University of Warwick
LEVERAGE CYCLES AND THE ANXIOUS ECONOMY
Ana Fostel, George Washington UniversityCo-Author: John
Geanakoplos, Yale University
WALRASIAN EQUILIBRIUM AS LIMIT OF A COMPETITIVE
EQUILIBRIUM WITHOUT DIVISIBLE GOODSRivera Jorge, Departamento de
Economia, U. de ChileCo-Author: Florig Michael, University of Paris
1
BELIEF FORMATION AND THE INFORMATION REVEALED BY
ENDOGENOUS BORROWING CONSTRAINTSV. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha,
Graduate School of Economics, GetulioVargas FoundationCo-Author:
Yiannis Vailakis, School of Business and Economics,University of
Exeter
08:15 - 09:45 EXPERIMENTAL GAMES (LAMES TAE)Chairperson: Andrei
Gomberg, ITAM
Room 333
ENDOGENOUS COMMUNICATION AND TACIT COORDINATION INMARKET ENTRY
GAMES -AN EXPLORATIVE EXPERIMENTALSTUDYHåkan Holm, Lund
UniversityCo-Author: Ola Andersson, Stockholm School of
Economics
CO-EVOLUTION OF INEQUITY-AVERSE AGENTS
Daniel Arce, University of Texas at Dallas
UNDERSTANDING TRUSTAnna Toldra Simats, Kellogg School of
Management, NorthwesternUniversityCo-Authors: Paola Sapienza,
Kellogg School of Management,Northwestern University and Luigi
Zingales, GSB, University of Chicago
A LABORATORY STYDY OF DEMAND REDUCTION AND
COLLUSION IN UNIFORM AND DISCRIMINATORY-PRICEAUCTIONSAndrei
Gomberg, ITAMCo-Author: Alexander Elbittar, Centro de Investigación
y DocenciaEconomicas (CIDE)
09:45 - 10:00 COFFEE BREAK
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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51
10:00 - 11:00 INVITED LECTURESLACEA
10:00 - 11:00 CARLOS ALEJANDRO DIAZ PRIZE:WINNER LECTURE
(LACEA)Chairperson: TBA
Room Auditorium 2
TBAJere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania
10:00 - 11:00 INVITED LECTURESLAMES
10:00 - 11:00 SPECIAL LECTURE - SPONSORED BYBANCO ITAÚ
(LAMES)Chairperson: Paulo Klinger Monteiro, EPGE -FGV
Room Auditorium 1
INCENTIVES TO CULTIVATE SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS UNDERALTERNATIVE
ELECTORAL SYSTEMSRoger Myerson, University of Chicago
10:00 - 11:00 SPECIAL LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: João Victor
Issler,FGV/EPGE/RJ
Room Auditorium 3
ECONONOMIC MODELS AND MOMENT INEQUALITY ESTIMATORSAriel Pakes,
Harvard University
11:00 - 12:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLACEA
11:00 - 12:30 MACROECONOMICS II (LACEA)Chairperson: Carlos E. da
Costa, FundaçãoGetulio Vargas
Room Auditorium 1
LESSONS FROM THE NEW DYNAMIC PUBLIC FINANCENarayana
Kocherlakota, University of Minnesota
EQUILIBRIUM DEFAULT
Hugo Hopenhayn, University of California, Los AngelesCo-Author:
Iván Werning, MIT
11:00 - 12:30 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS II (LACEA)Chairperson:
Juliano Assunção,Departamento de Economia PUC-Rio
Room Auditorium 3
NUTRITION AND CHILD CARE CHOICES IN RURAL COLOMBIAOrazio
Attanasio, University College London and Institute for
FiscalStudies
PAROCHIAL POLITICS: ETHNIC PREFERENCES AND POLITICIAN
CORRUPTIONAbhijit Banerjee, MITCo-Author: Rohini Pande, Harvard
University
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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52
11:00 - 12:30 POLITICAL ECONOMY II (LACEA)Chairperson: Claudio
Ferraz, PUC-Rio
Room 228
WHAT MAKES PEOPLE VOTE? EVIDENCE FROM THREE FIELDEXPERIMENTS IN
INDIARohini Pande, Harvard University
PRESS COVERAGE AND POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY
David Strömberg, Stockholm University
SELF-ESTEEM, MORAL CAPITAL, AND WRONGDOINGErnesto Dal Bó,
University of California at Berkeley
11:00 - 12:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONSLAMES
11:00 - 12:30 HURWICZ LECTURE (LAMES)Chairperson: TBA
Room Auditorium 2
THE LEVERAGE CYCLE AND THE PRESENT FINANCIAL CRISISJohn
Geanakoplos, Yale University
INSIDE AND OUTSIDE LIQUIDITY
José Scheinkman, Princeton UniversityCo-Authors: Patrick Bolton,
Princeton University and Tano Santos,Columbia University
11:00 - 12:30 MECHANISM DESIGN (LAMES)Chairperson: Humberto
Moreira, FGV --EPGE
Room 224
MECHANISM DESIGN WITH BILATERAL CONTRACTINGDavid Martimort,
Université ToulouseCo-Author: Vianney Dequiedt, INRA
DYNAMIC MECHANISM DESIGN
Ilya Segal, Stanford University
11:00 - 12:30 SPONSORED SESSION
11:00 - 12:30 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: THE FINANCIAL CRISISAND THE
TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS TO LATINAMERICA (LACEA)Chairperson: Andrew
Powell, Inter- American DevelopmentBank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
Room 232
PANELIST 1Charles Calomiris, Columbia University
PANELIST 2
Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution and LACEA
PANELIST 3Michael Gavin, Citadel Investment Group
12:30 - 13:15 LUNCH
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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53
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONSLACEA
13:15 - 14:45 CAF PANEL ON INFRASTRUCTURE ANDDEVELOPMENT (CAF
FLAGSHIP 2009)(LACEA)Chairperson: Pablo Sanguinetti,
CAF/UTDTDiscussants: Mauricio Cárdenas, BrookingsInstitute and
LACEA, Eduardo Engel,Department of Economics, Yale Universityand
Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
This Session is Sponsored by CAF
Room Auditorium 1
SPEAKERSMiguel Castilla, CAF and Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT
13:15 - 14:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: GROWINGPAINS: BINDING
CONSTRAINTS TOPRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT IN LATINAMERICA
(LACEA)Chairperson: Octaviano Canuto, Vice-President,
Inter-American Development BankDiscussants: Augusto de la Torre,
ChiefEconomist for Latin America and theCaribbean, World Bank,
Ricardo Hausmann,Director of the Center for
InternationalDevelopment, Harvard University, CharlesSabel,
Columbia University and AndresVelasco, Harvard University
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
Room Auditorium 2
GROWING PAINS: BINDING CONSTRAINTS TO PRODUCTIVEINVESTMENT IN
LATIN AMERICAManuel Agosín, Universidad de Chile and Fidel
Jaramillo, Inter-American Development Bank
13:15 - 14:45 UNDP SPONSORED SESSION: THEINTERGENERATIONAL
TRANSMISSIONOF INEQUALITY IN HUMANDEVELOPMENT (LACEA)Chairperson:
Luis Felipe López-Calva,Regional Bureau of Latin America and
theCaribbean, UNDP
This Session is sponsored by the UNDP
Room Auditorium 3
THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY INLACIsidro
Soloaga, Colmex and UNDPCo-Author: Luis Felipe López-Calva,
Regional Bureau of Latin Americaand the Caribbean, UNDP
MOBILITY AND ASPIRATIONS AND THE TRANSMISSION OF
INEQUALITYGarance Genicot, University of GeorgetownCo-Author:
Debraj Ray, NYU
FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
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54
AGENCY, EMPOWERMENT AND THE TRANSMISSION OFINEQUALITY.Maria Emma
Santos, Oxford Poverty and Human DevelopmentInitiative, University
of Oxford and CONICET-Universidad Nacional delSur
COMMENTS TO UNDP´S PROJECT LAC-REGIONAL REPORT ON
THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY INHUMAN
DEVELOPMENTJere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania
13:15 - 14:45 MONETARY POLICY II (LACEA)Chairperson: Carlos
Montoro, Universidaddel Pacifico, Banco Central de Reserva
delPeru
Room 206
OPTIMAL INTEREST RATE RULES UNDER ENDOGENOUS
FISCALPOLICYMercedes Haga, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez
INFLATION TARGETING IN LATIN AMERICA: TOWARDS A
MONETARY UNION?Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes
BEFORE AND AFTER INFLATION TARGETING: CHANGES IN THE
MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN COLOMBIA.Munir Jalil,
Associate Professor
MONETARY POLICY IN THE PRESENCE OF INFORMAL LABOUR
MARKETSCarlos Montoro, Universidad del Pacifico, Banco Central
de Reservadel PeruCo-Author: Paul Castillo, Banco Central de
Reserva del Peru
13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS(LACEA)Chairperson:
Jamele Rigolini, The WorldBank
Room 232
SCHOOLING AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN ANEOCLASSICAL
FRAMEWORK:THEORY AND EVIDENCEFilipe Campante, Harvard
UniversityCo-Author: Davin Chor, Singapore Management
University
DEMOCRACY AND INEQUALITY: ELECTIONS AND
REDISTRIBUTION IN BRAZILFabiana Machado, Inter-American
Development Bank
EXCLUSIONARY POLICIES IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT: HOW
UNDER-SERVICING MIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTS THEGROWTH AND
COMPOSITION OF BRAZILIAN CITIESLeo Feler, Brown
UniversityCo-Author: J. Vernon Henderson, Brown University
INFORMALITY TRENDS AND CYCLES
Jamele Rigolini, The World BankCo-Author: Norman Loayza, The
World Bank
13:15 - 14:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME II (LACEA)Chairperson:
Ernesto Scharg