CAPITALIZACIÓN BURSÁTIL Instituto Argentino de Mercado de Capitales (IAMC) – Yearbook 2012 IAMC Staff General Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Executive Director: Lic. Mónica Erpen Economics Department: Lic. Ramiro Tosi Lic. Mario Maydana IT Department: An.María M. Rodríguez Míguez Lic. Rosa Santantonio Fernando Berástegui Assistants: Mariana Casas Lic. Alberto Pascual Adriana Vidoni Instituto Argentino de Mercado de Capitales (IAMC) 25 de Mayo 359/67 - 8º piso (C1002ABG) Buenos Aires Argentina Tel.: 4316-6042/6036 Fax: 4316-6034 [email protected]www.iamc.sba.com.ar Publication data: Year XIII Proprietary rights register: 978987 Publishing Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Proprietary: Mercado de Valores de Buenos Aires S.A. (MERVAL) YEARBOOK 2012 INDEX Page Argentine Capital Markets in 2012 1 Merval Index & IAMC Bond Index performance during 2012: graph of the relevant domestic and international issues 6 Stock Market Indicators 8 The Argentine Economy in 2012 9 Argentine selected macroeconomic indicators 11 Annual price changes: top performers 12 Traded Value 13 Equity Market briefing 15 Fixed Income Market briefing 16 Stocks and Cedear’s market shares 18 Fixed Income market shares 19 Trust Funds market shares 20 Corporate bonds market shares 21 Market indexes portfolios 22 Merval Index: monthly % variations and closing values 24 M.AR Index: monthly % variations and closing values 25 Merval 25 Index: monthly % variations and closing values 26 IAMC Bond Index: monthly % variations and closing values 27 Historical volatilities of relevant market indexes 28 Merval Index: P/E evolution 29 M.AR Index: P/E evolution 30 Merval Index: P/BV evolution 31 M.AR Index: P/BV evolution 32
33
Embed
INDEX Capitales (IAMC) – Yearbook 2012 2012 Ye… · Capitales (IAMC) – Yearbook 2012 YEARBOOK 2012 IAMC Staff General Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Executive Director: Lic. Mónica
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
CAPITALIZACIÓN BURSÁTIL
Inst
ituto
Arg
entin
o de
Mer
cado
de
Cap
itale
s (IA
MC
) – Y
earb
ook
2012
IAMC Staff General Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Executive Director: Lic. Mónica Erpen Economics Department: Lic. Ramiro Tosi Lic. Mario Maydana IT Department: An.María M. Rodríguez Míguez Lic. Rosa Santantonio Fernando Berástegui Assistants: Mariana Casas Lic. Alberto Pascual Adriana Vidoni Instituto Argentino de Mercado de Capitales (IAMC) 25 de Mayo 359/67 - 8º piso (C1002ABG) Buenos Aires Argentina Tel.: 4316-6042/6036 Fax: 4316-6034 [email protected] www.iamc.sba.com.ar Publication data: Year XIII Proprietary rights register: 978987
Publishing Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Proprietary: Mercado de Valores de Buenos Aires S.A. (MERVAL)
YEARBOOK 2012
INDEX
Page Argentine Capital Markets in 2012 1
Merval Index & IAMC Bond Index performance during 2012: graph of the relevant domestic and international issues
6
Stock Market Indicators 8
The Argentine Economy in 2012 9
Argentine selected macroeconomic indicators 11
Annual price changes: top performers 12
Traded Value 13
Equity Market briefing 15
Fixed Income Market briefing 16
Stocks and Cedear’s market shares 18
Fixed Income market shares 19
Trust Funds market shares 20
Corporate bonds market shares 21
Market indexes portfolios 22
Merval Index: monthly % variations and closing values 24
M.AR Index: monthly % variations and closing values 25
Merval 25 Index: monthly % variations and closing values 26
IAMC Bond Index: monthly % variations and closing values 27
Historical volatilities of relevant market indexes 28
Merval Index: P/E evolution 29
M.AR Index: P/E evolution 30
Merval Index: P/BV evolution 31
M.AR Index: P/BV evolution 32
THE ARGENTINE CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2012
1
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
The Argentine stock markets in the context of world stock market indexes Despite the volatile international context stemming from the crisis in European countries (mainly Greece and Spain) and the fiscal situation in the United States, most of the Stock Markets in the world ended 2012 with positive variations.
Accordingly, the stability of financial markets relied on two key policies: the FED’s uninterrupted implementation of low interest rates and its bond repurchase scheme (known as “Operation Twist”).
If we take a glance at the 25 stock market indexes, which the IAMC surveys on a daily basis, we can note that 23 posted hikes (all measured in US dollars) in comparison with year-end 2011, while only 2 recorded a fall.
The stock market index that saw the highest jump was that of Venezuela (303%), followed by those of Turkey and the Philippines, which posted hikes of 61.5% and 41.9% respectively. The second best-performing Latin-American stock market index was that of Mexico, which climbed by 26.2%.
On the other hand, the Spanish stock market dropped by 2.3%, while the Brazilian Bovespa inched down by 2.1% (although this fall was triggered by the 9.9% depreciation of the real against the US dollar).
As for the local market, the Argentine Merval (M.A.R.) showed the worst figure among the 25 stock markets under analysis: down by 8%, while the Merval edged up by 1.6%
The 10 best-performing Stock Markets in 2012 Variations in US dollars between 12-28-12 and 12-29-11
41.9%
40.1%
31.8%
26.2%
23.2%
18.5%
18.5%
1.6%
18.1%
61.5%
-8.0%
-20%
-10% 0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
IBC (Venezuela)
ISE NAC-100 (Turkey)
PSI (the Philippines)SETI (Thailand)
DAX-30 (Germany)
IPC (Mexico)Hang Seng (Hong Kong)
KOSPI (Korea)
BUX (Hungary)Swiss Market Index (Switzerland)
Merval
M.AR
It should be noted that in the last month of 2012, the Argentine stock market indexes experienced a remarkable recovery, which enabled them to finish the year with a more favorable performance against the accumulated figure as of November 2012. In December, the Merval index was up by 16.2% in US dollars while M.A.R. advanced 20.2%
Performance of Local Stocks If we take a look at the 10 best-performing stocks (in pesos) in 2012, the first three are comprised in the General Board. The ranking was topped by Instituto Rosenbusch (ROSE) with a 100% rise, followed by Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia (PATA) y Rigolleau (RIGO), with hikes of 89.9% and 88.8%, respectively. Only 3 out of the top 10 belong to the Merval Board: Tenaris, ranking sixth with a variation of 63.9%, Grupo Financiero Galicia in the seventh place with a rise of 58.1% and Banco Francés in the eighth place, up by 44.7%.
The 2012 top-ten stocks
In ARS In USD1. Instituto Rosenbusch (ROSE) 100.0% 90.2%
2. Import. y Export. de la Patagonia (PATA) 89.9% 80.6%3. Rigolleau (RIGO) 88.8% 79.5%
4. Banco Santander (STD) 68.6% 60.3%
5. Alto Palermo (APSA) 67.4% 59.2%
6. Tenaris (TS) 63.9% 55.8%
7. Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) 58.1% 50.4%
8. BBVA Banco Francés (FRAN) 44.7% 37.5%
9. Garovaglio y Zorraquín (GARO) 42.7% 35.7%10. Banco Río (BRIO) 29.3% 22.9%
Annual VariationStocks
It is worth mentioning that out of the 10 best-performing stocks, the 7 stocks which do not make up the Merval Index stood for a mere 3% of the total 2012 stock volume (Tenaris, Francés, and Galicia as a whole represent 44% of the total). This is why we consider relevant to analyze what happened with the price of the most traded stocks over the year.
As a result of the above mentioned, we can conclude that out of the 10 best traded stocks, all of which compose the Merval Index, 6 recorded an upward trend, while 4 went down. Among the best-performing stocks, we can name Tenaris (63.9%), Grupo Financiero Galicia (58.1%) and Banco Francés (44.7%), but the worst-performing ones were Pampa Energía (-50.2%) and YPF (-40.3%).
2012 Price Variations Top Ten Traded Stocks
In ARS In USD1. Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) 58.1% 38.5% 22.34%
2. Tenaris (TS) 63.9% 43.6% 20.07%
3. YPF (YPFD) -40.3% -47.7% 13.46%
4. Telecom Argentina (TECO2) -3.8% -15.8% 7.39%
5. Petróleo Brasileiro - Ordinarias (APBR) 15.9% 1.5% 7.15%
As for YPF specifically, it should be noted that in December it witnessed a notable recovery of 27.7%, and thus became the second best-performing stock in the Merval Board over the last month of 2012.
Stock Market Capitalization As of December 28, 2012 the total stock market capitalization stood at ARS 2.3 trillion (USD 472 billion), which represented a 43.6% rise in comparison with same period of 2011 (26% measured in dollars).
The local companies capitalization totaled ARS 168 billion (USD 34.3 billion), which implied a decline of 10.2% against year-end 2011 (-21.3% in dollars). In relation to the all-time high recorded in January 2011, the local companies’ capitalization, as measured in pesos, was down by 36.6%. It should be noted that by the end of October 2012, this figure in US dollars was even lower than that of December 2001.
Stock Market Capitalization of Local and Foreign Companies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec
-01
Jun-
02
Dec
-02
Jun-
03
Dec
-03
Jun-
04
Dec
-04
Jun-
05
Dec
-05
Jun-
06
Dec
-06
Jun-
07
Dec
-07
Jun-
08
Dec
-08
Jun-
09
Dec
-09
Jun-
10
Dec
-10
Jun-
11
Dec
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Loca
l com
pani
es (i
n B
n U
SD)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Fore
ign
com
pani
es (i
n B
n U
SD)
Local companies
Foreign companies
Out of the 79 local companies comprised in this calculation, 44 saw their capitalization go down (the total reduction amounted to ARS 39 billion), while 35 companies recorded a total hike of ARS 23 billion. Among the main falls, in terms of their impact on the total amount, can be named: YPF (-41%, which accounts for almost 70% of the total decrease), Siderar (-8.7%) and Telecom Argentina (-8.8%). In contrast, the following represent the most outstanding rises: Grupo Financiero Galicia (+57.3%), Banco Macro (+28%) and Alto Palermo (+50%).
In terms of GDP as of 3Q-12 (latest available), the stock market capitalization of local companies as of 12-28-12 accounted for 7.7%, against 9.9% posted on 12-29-11.
On the other hand, the capitalization of foreign companies reached ARS 2.14 trillion (USD 472 billion), which implied a rise of 50.7% since the end of 2011. This figure was brought about by the hikes in the capitalization of the Petróleo Brasileiro (+74.4%) and
Banco Santander (88%), both of which were partly offset by the fall of Repsol (-2.2%)
Cash Dividends Over 2012, the listed companies paid cash dividends in the amount of ARS 38.7 billion (USD 8.7 billion), 63% less than the previous year. This total comprises local companies in the amount of ARS 2.9 billion while the remaining ARS 35.8 billion was paid by foreign companies.
The shrinkage in the distribution of cash dividends resulted from a lower payment by both local and foreign companies. The former paid 78.5% less than in 2011, a year when an all-time high was recorded. In addition, the dividends paid by local companies in 2012 was the lowest figure (measured in pesos) ever disbursed since 2002. As for foreign companies, the 2012 cash dividends contracted by 61% against those of 2011.
In terms of number of dividend-paying companies, we can conclude that there were 40 local companies against 49 in 2011. As for foreign companies, 4 out of 6 listed companies paid cash dividends. It is important to highlight that Andes Energía and Banco Santander failed to pay cash dividends, although Banco Santander implemented a stock issuance scheme with an option to cash payment by virtue of a share subscription coupon, which resembles a cash dividend.
Government Bonds The fixed-income market, measured by the IAMC Bond Index, posted a favorable variation as of year-end 2012 against the previous year, both in pesos and dollars. The index showed a 37.2% hike, but if revised downward due to the exchange rate depreciation, the rise stood at 20.2%
The positive performance of the IAMC Bond Index was sparked off by the hikes in all other sub-indexes, among which stood out the dollar-denominated ones: the rising caps on the purchase of foreign currency (suspended as
THE ARGENTINE CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2012
3
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
from July) led to a growing demand by investors of instruments denominated and payable in foreign currency.
The highest increase in dollars was recorded in the USD-denominated Short Bonds Sub-index, which went up by 38.7% since year-end 2011. However, this sub-index has the lowest weighting of the four (16.4% of the total). The second best performing Sub-index was that of Long Bonds in dollars, which saw a rise of 35.8% and enjoyed the largest weighting in the General Index (35%). The remaining sub-indexes (Short Bonds in pesos and Long Bonds in pesos), measured in dollars, paced up by 6.5% and 9.3%, respectively.
Fixed-Income Market Performance – IAMC Bond Index (“Performing” Government Bonds)
Value as of 28-Dec-12
Monthly Variation
Variation as from
29-Dec-11Weighting
Short Bonds in ARS 2,252.50 3.39% 21.60% 32.13%
Short Bonds in USD 880.19 5.62% 58.35% 16.35%Long Bonds in USD 2,189.00 11.91% 24.76% 16.50%
Long Bonds in USD 1,610.43 9.23% 55.07% 35.02%IAMC Bond Index 1,819.86 7.17% 37.18% 100.00%
Value as of 28-Dec-12
Monthly Variation
Variation as from
29-Dec-11Weighting
Short Bonds in ARS 1369.36 1.82% 6.52% 32.13%
Short Bonds in USD 192.49 4.01% 38.70% 16.35%Long Bonds in USD 955.33 10.21% 9.28% 16.50%
Long Bonds in USD 328.05 7.56% 35.84% 35.02%IAMC Bond Index 370.43 5.54% 20.16% 100.00%
IAMC Bond Index in USD (Base 1/1/95=100)
IAMC Bond Index in ARS (Base 1/1/95=100)
If we analyze the top 10 performing government bonds over the year, it becomes evident that investors were particularly interested in instruments denominated and payable in foreign currency: 9 of all the bonds posting the highest increases are in dollars whereas the rest are in Euros.
It is important to add that most of these bonds had been issued as a result of the debt restructuring processes undertaken by the National Government as well as that of the Province of Buenos Aires.
2012 Top Ten Performing Bonds
In ARS In USD1. GDP linked bonds in Euros (TVPE) 80.5% 58.2%
2. Long Term Par Bond in USD Province of Bs. As. (BPLD) 61.3% 41.3%
3. Par Bond in USD New York Law 2005 Swap (PARY) 57.2% 37.7%
4. Discount Bond in USD Argentine Law 2010 Swap (DIA0) 56.6% 36.9%
5. Province of Bs. As. in USD at 9.375% Due 2018 (BP18) 55.9% 36.3%
6. Par Bond in USD Argentine Law 2005 Swap (PARA) 55.1% 35.9%
7. Province of Bs. As. in USD at 11.75% Due 2015 (BP15) 54.4% 35.2%
8. Discount Bond in USD Province of Buenos Aires (BDED) 53.5% 34.5%
9. Discount Bond in USD Argentine Law 2005 Swap (DICA) 52.4% 33.5%
10. BONAR VII in USD 7% - Due 2013 (AS13) 52.3% 33.4%
Bonds Annual Variation
The bond that took the lead was GDP-linked Bond (UVP) denominated in Euros (TVPE), which posted a hike of 80.5% in pesos. Ranking second was Long-term Par Bond in USD issued by the Province of Buenos Aires (BPLD) and third, Par Bond in USD New York Law issued by the National Government (PARY), up by 61.3% and 57.2%, respectively.
As for bonds posting a decline, we can only mention Consadep series 3 issued by the province of Tucumán (TUCS3), down by 22%. This bond was particularly affected by its early withdrawal last November, which entailed a debt haircut of 50% from its residual value in dollars.
Just like stocks, find below the 2012 ranking of the 10 best performing bonds, which taken as a whole stood for 75.5% of the total trading volume.
It can be observed that all the securities had been issued by the National Government, 6 of which were denominated in dollars and the remaining 4, in pesos.
2012 Price Variation Ranking Most Traded Goverment Securities
In ARS In USD1. BODEN in USD 7% - Due 2015 (RO15) 45.3% 27.3% 25.2%
2. BONAR X in USD 7% - Due 2017 (AA17) 51.2% 32.4% 12.6%
3. BONAR VII in USD 7% - Due 2013 (AS13) 52.3% 33.4% 6.8%
4. GDP linked Bond in ARS 2005 Swap (TVPP) 46.0% 27.9% 6.7%
5. BODEN in USD Variable Coupon – Due 2012 (RG12) 36.6% 28.6% 6.4%
6. GDP linked Bond in USD New York Law (TVPY) 28.1% 12.2% 5.8%
7. BONAR in ARS BADLAR+275 bp – Due 2014 (AE14) 17.5% 3.0% 4.7%
8. BONAR in ARS BADLAR+300 bp – Due 2015 (AS15) 17.4% 2.8% 2.8%9. BOGAR 2018 (NF18) 26.3% 10.6% 2.3%
10. Discount in USD Due 2033 Argentine Law 2005 Swap (DICA) 52.4% 33.5% 2.2%
Market ShareBonds
Annual Variation
Traded Value The total traded volume in 2012 stood at ARS 242.3 billion, which accounted for a rise of 16.6% in comparison with the traded volume recorded in 2011 (ARS 207.8 billion)
Most of the overall upward trend was fostered by the 28% increase (+ARS 36.3 billion) in the volume of government bonds. The remaining relevant items saw some drops and minor advances: Carry-overs and Repos + 1.1%, Stocks -26.7% and Corporate Bonds +0.4%
However, it must be noted that deferred payment checks performed very satisfactorily. Although they stood for a very small portion of the total (0.8%), DPC went up by 33.9% and recorded a total traded volume close to ARS 2 billion.
If we are to analyze the volume composition, it can be noticed that the portion of government bonds increased from 62.5%, as recorded in 2011, to 68.6% in 2012. As a result, Carry-Overs and Repos as well as Stocks and Corporate Bonds saw their portions in the total traded volume of 2012 go down.
Annual Participation in Traded Value Year 2012
1.7%
1.1%4.1%
0.7%
22.9%
68.6%
Government Bonds Carry-overs and ReposStocks Corporate BondsDeferred Payment Checks CedearOther
The total volume in pesos traded in government bonds over 2012 amounted to ARS 166.3 billion, which is the second highest figure in the last 10 years (the previous all-time high was recorded in 2008 and stood at ARS 172.3).
The daily average traded volume in government bonds reached ARS 692 million, which entailed a 30.2% hike against 2011.
Government Bonds – Daily Average Traded Value
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun-
07Se
p-07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08Se
p-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09Se
p-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11Se
p-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec
-12
Mill
ion
AR
S
Continuous Trading
Concurrence Market
It is worth mentioning that the average traded volume over 2012 (ARS 692 million) hit its all-time high since the abandonment of the currency board system. Out of the total traded volume in 2012, 34% was traded in the concurrence market while the remaining 66%, in the continuous trading system.
As for the total volume traded in stocks, the daily average stood at ARS 42 million against ARS 55 million in 2011. This entailed a 25% reduction and the lowest figure ever recorded since 2003.
Stocks – Daily Average Traded Value
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep-
09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep-
12
Dec
-12
Mill
ion
AR
S
Daily Average (in million ARS)
Daily average traded volume over the last 6 months(in million ARS)
Corporate Financing The total corporate financing through the local capital markets over 2012 totaled USD 7.8 billion, 3.3% less than the placements of 2011 (USD 8 billion).
Out of the above-mentioned total, 93.3% (USD 7.3 billion) was allocated to big companies. It should be remarked that nearly 27% of this total represented corporate bonds issued by YPF. As for the financing of SMEs, this accounted for the remaining 6.7% (USD 524 million). Therefore, the portion of SMEs in the total financing hit its all-time high since 2009, when the record figure was 8.2%.
The financing to big companies shrank by an annual rate of 4.5%. This fall was owed to the almost 38% reduction in the amount issued by financial trusts (FT), which was, to a great extent, offset by the rise of 80.4% in the issuance of Corporate Bonds (CB) (where the issuance of CB by YPF explained the total rise).
It is also worth mentioning that the 2012 FT amount, which was lower than that of 2011, was accounted for by the 81.6% contraction in the amounts issued by infrastructure FT. If we were to disregard the latter, the financing to big companies through FT would have dropped by 1% instead of by 40%.
THE ARGENTINE CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2012
5
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
Corporate Financing through Local Capital Markets
2012 2011 y / yTotal Big Companies 7.3 7.6 -4.5%
Corporate Bonds 3.9 2.1 80.4%
Financial Trusts 3.4 5.4 -37.7%
Share Subscriptions 0.02 0.04 -50.6%
Total SMEs 0.5 0.4 18.2%
Corporate Bonds 0.0 0.0 16.8%
Deferred Payment Checks 0.4 0.3 23.3%
Financial Trusts 0.1 0.1 -4%
Share Subscriptions 0.004 0.006 -30%
Overall Total 7.8 8.1 -3.3%
Type of Company and Instrument
Total Financing in billion USD
On the other hand, the amount of CB and STDS (short-term debt securities) issued by big companies (USD 3.8 billion) was the highest ever recorded in the last 5 years.
As for the financing obtained by SMEs over the year, a 12-year high was posted: USD 524 million with a yearly rise of 18.2%
This record figure was primarily triggered by the all-time high in the trading of deferred payment checks, which reached USD 427 million. An increase in the portion of longer term DPC must also be noted.
Another SME financing instrument posting a hike over 2012, although lower than that of DPC, was SMEs CB: with a total of USD 28.8 billion, CB saw a yearly rise of 17%.
Last, there was a small drop in the issuance of SMEs trusts: USD 63 million against USD 66 million in 2011, which represents a decline of 4%.
It is interesting to note that from 2003 to 2012, 10,959 SMEs accessed financing through the local capital markets.
Annual Var. (in ARS) 102.8% 25.7% 14.1% 34.5% 5.2% -50.1% 115.2% 54.9% -29.6% 13.3%
PUBLIC BONDSIAMC Bond Index - Annual Var. (in ARS) 13.8% 30.0% 27.8% 20.6% -10.8% -42.2% 133.6% 38.7% 5.2% 37.2%Subindexes
Short Term in ARS - Annual Var. 20.1% 25.7% 23.9% 7.5% 4.9% -17.2% 201.9% 37.0% 25.6% 21.6%Short Term en U$S - Annual Var. 4.8% 22.4% 2.6% 1.2% 6.3% -26.5% 120.5% 16.7% 21.0% 58.3%Long Term in ARS - Annual Var. 35.8% 50.5% 45.3% 22.6% -14.6% -44.2% 126.1% 64.7% -22.4% 24.8%Long Term en U$S - Annual Var. 30.6% 37.0% 15.5% 18.7% -9.5% -54.5% 186.3% 28.3% 20.2% 55.1%
Notes: (1) This amount is distributed among the different items according to the instrument (shares, public bonds, etc.) (2) Domestic market capitalization excludes: Andes Energía (AEN), Tenaris (TS), Repsol YPF (REP), Banco Santander (STD), Telefónica S.A. (TEF) y Petróleo Brasileiro (APBR). (3) CPD: Deferred Payment Cheques. Interest Rate is a traded-value weighted average.
THE ARGENTINE ECONOMY IN 2012
9
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
HIGHLIGHTS OF YEAR 2012
• According to INDEC’s Monthly Estimates of Economic Activity (EMAE), during 2012, the economic activity registered an increase of 1.9% against 2011, when the economy grew 8,9%.
• In 2012, manufacturing activity (measured by INDEC’s EMI1), fell 1.2% against 2011. This was the first annual decrease for the EMI since year 2002 (in 2009 it went up 0.1% y-o-y). Out of the 12 sectorial indexes comprising the EMI, 9 went up, while the other 3 (which together explain 37% of the EMI) fell. The highest increase was that of Tobacco Industry (+6.6%), while Basic Metals showed the sharpest decrease (-8.7%).
• During 2012, construction activity (based on INDEC’s figures), showed a reduction of 3.2%. This contraction was the largest since year 2002, being even higher than the reduction experienced in year 2009 (-2%). Residential construction, which explains 50% of the index, fell 2.4%, while infrastructure constructions showed the sharpest decrease (-7.3%), even though they account for less than 10% on the index. The only sector with an increase was oil-related constructions (+10%), although, again, it explains a small percentage of the overall index.
• Year 2012 tax revenues added up to ARS680 billion, with a year-over-year nominal increase of 26%, although this was the lowest annual increase since 2009. Income Tax revenues were 27% higher than in previous year, while VAT and Social Security rose by 22.8% and 31.5%, respectively. These three items explained 76% of the annual increase. Tariffs on external trade (exports and imports) went up by 6.4%, accounting for 13% of the annual rise in tax revenues.
• Accumulated primary balance as of November 2012 (latest available data) posted a surplus of ARS6.7 billion, though 49% less than the surplus registered for the same period of 2011. It is worth mentioning that 2012 surplus was reached after including transfers (“adelantos transitorios”) from the Central Bank (the stock of these going up from an ARS67 billion at the end of 2011 to ARS127 billion as of December 2012).
• Year 2012 exports totaled $81.2 billion, implying an annual decrease of 3%. Regarding imports, they went down by 7.3% against 2011. Despite these lower levels against the previous year, both exports and imports of 2012 were the second higher value for the annual series since 1993.
• As a consequence of the above mentioned data, year 2012 trade balance posted a surplus of $12.7 billion, 26.7% higher than in 2011. However, this increase in the trade balance was explained by a contraction in imports higher than in exports rather than by exports growing faster than imports.
• Retail inflation in 2012, based on INDEC’s estimates, was 10.8%. If the core measure is considered (“IPC Resto”, which excludes regulated and seasonal prices), retail prices went up by 8.8%. On the other hand, the average of retail inflation rates estimated by private consultancy firms, which is released by means of the House of Representatives opposition parties’ members (known as “Inflación Congreso”) posted an annual increase for retail prices of 25.2%.
1 Monthly Industrial Estimate.
THE ARGENTINE ECONOMY IN 2012
10
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
• As from December 2012 (according to INDEC’s estimates), formal private sector’s salaries were up by 24.8% since December 2011. Salaries of the informal (non-registered) private sector rose by 33.5% during the same period. The overall Salaries’ Index (INDEC) posted an annual increase of 24.5%.
• As of 12-28-12, total deposits of the Argentine Banking System (pesos plus US dollars) totaled ARS588.6 billion. This implied a rise of 36.4% against December 2011. From this amount, ARS424 billion belonged to the private sector, whose deposits showed an annual increase of 41.6%. If only dollar-denominated deposits of the private sector are considered, they amounted to $9.8 billion, going down by 35% against the figures of December 2011.
• Total bank loans to the private sector as of December 2012 (pesos plus US dollars, monthly average of daily balances) reached ARS365.3 billion, up by 40% against the value registered in December 2011, and the highest of the series since 2001. Loans denominated in US dollars totaled $27 billion, posting a reduction of 42% against the end of 2011.
• The nominal peso-dollar exchange rate (banks, ask price) got depreciated by 14.2% along year 2012, ending up in ARS4.9175 per US dollar. Regarding the Euro, the ARS also experienced a depreciation in 2012: 16.6%, ending the year in ARS6.505 per €. Finally, the Argentine Peso also showed depreciation against the Brazilian Real: 4.3%.
• The balance of the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) intervention in the foreign exchange market in year 2012 posted a surplus of $9.2 billion. Even though this result was 190% higher than in 2011 ($3.2 billion), it was lower than that of year 2010 ($11.8 billion). In this regard, the informal (black market) foreign exchange (known as “blue dollar”), according to different sources of information, ended 2012 at ARS6.80 per dollar (ask price), which represented an annual nominal depreciation of 43.6%.
• International reserves of the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) ended year 2012 in $43.2 billion, implying a decrease of 7% against the level at the end of 2011.
ARGENTINA’S SELECTED MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
11
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
GDP (ARS Million, current prices) 375.909 447.643 531.939 654.439 812.456 1.032.758 1.145.458 1.442.655 1.842.022 2.182.909 (1)
GDP Real Growht Rate (y/y) 8,8% 9,0% 9,2% 8,5% 8,7% 6,8% 0,9% 9,2% 8,9% 1,8% (1)
Per-capita GDP (U$S, current prices) 3.350 3.962 4.694 5.436 6.595 8.175 7.618 9.061 11.038 11.797 (2)
Current Account / GDP 6,4% 2,1% 2,9% 3,7% 2,8% 2,1% 3,6% 0,8% 0,1% 0,6% (3)
Notes: eop: end of period (1) Nominal GDP as from 3Q-12 (latest available data). (2) Considering nominal GDP as from 3Q-12, and the annual average of banks’ peso-dollar bid exchange rate. (3) It considers the accumulated current account as from 3Q-12 (latest available data). (4) Data as from November 2012 (latest available data). (5) Data as from 3R-12 (latest available). (6) It includes both deposits in ARS and in USD. Monthly average of daily values. The annual figure considers the data for December. (7) Including both private and public sector deposits.
ANNUAL PRICE CHANGES: TOP PERFORMERS
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
ANNUAL PRICE CHANGES OF THE 25 MOST TRADED STOCKS ⁽*⁾
EDN -53.6%
TRAN -50.3%PAMP -50.2%
YPFD -40.3%CEPU2 -39.4%
LEDE -28.2%MOLI -11.9%
BHIP -8.1%COME -6.4%ERAR -6.0%
ALUA -5.8%TECO2 -3.8%
REP 2.8%M.AR 5.0%
CRES 9.2%MIRG 9.9%
PESA 12.7%MERVAL 25 13.3%IRSA 13.4%
APBR 15.9%MERVAL 15.9%
TEF 18.1%APBRA 25.4%
BMA 28.0%FRAN 44.7%
GGAL 58.1%TS 63.9%
STD 68.6%
ANNUAL PRICE CHANGES OF THE 25 MOST TRADED PUBLIC BONDS ⁽*⁾
DICP 12.0%PBG13 13.5%
RA13 15.8%AS15 17.4%
AE14 17.5%PR14 22.4%
PR12 25.5%NF18 26.3%
TVPY 28.1%TVY0 31.1%
TVPA 31.8%PR15 34.2%
RG12 36.6%
Bonos IAMC 37.2%RO15 45.3%TVPP 46.0%
RA13 46.8%PR13 48.7%
AA17 51.2%AS13 52.3%DICA 52.4%BDED 53.5%
BP15 54.4%PARA 55.1%
BP18 55.9%BP21 76.5%
TVPE 80.5%
(*) Considering only the securities traded under the standard period (T+3) in pesos.
⁽*⁾ Adjusted prices. Maximum and minimum prices consider only closing prices (not intraday) Close price is the last traded price of the year. When a ‘-‘ is shown, no price was registered for the standard trading (T+3) Trade value and volume includes all cash and future transactions.
FIXED INCOME MARKET BRIEFING
16
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
CONCURRENCE MARKET⁽*⁾ Price, volume, traded value and annual price change
Symbol Volume
Traded Value (ARS) Min. Máx. Close Var. % Symbol Volume
⁽*⁾ Adjusted prices. Maximum and minimum prices consider only closing prices (not intraday) Close price is the last traded price of the year. When a ‘-‘ is shown, no price was registered for the standard trading (T+3) Trade value and volume includes all cash and future transactions.
STOCKS AND CEDEAR: 2012 MARKET SHARE
2012
IAM
C Y
earb
ook
ANNUAL MARKET SHARE OF STOCKS
Pos. Symbol Name Traded Value Share Acum. (ARS) (%) Share (%)
1 GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia 2,223,444,093 22.34 22.342 TS Tenaris 1,998,155,740 20.07 42.413 YPFD YPF 1,339,955,734 13.46 55.874 TECO Telecom Argentina 735,489,254 7.39 63.265 APBR Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras 711,926,434 7.15 70.416 BMA Banco Macro 678,198,691 6.81 77.237 ERAR Siderar 336,003,248 3.38 80.608 PAMP Pampa Energía 299,694,245 3.01 83.619 PESA Petrobras Argentina 210,101,793 2.11 85.72
1Q 2Q 3Q 4QShort in USD 10.45 8.46 18.93 16.35Short in ARS 40.83 32.51 32.35 32.13Long en USD 30.41 44.21 33.72 35.02Long in ARS 18.31 14.82 15.00 16.50