Increased Ethanol Production Impacts on Minnesota Wetlands Dr. David Kelley University of St. Thomas 2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference.

Increased Ethanol Production Impacts on Minnesota Wetlands

Dr. David KelleyUniversity of St. Thomas

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Objective of Study

Explore the effect that large-scale ethanol production in Minnesota has had on CRP land protection, particularly with regards to CRP contracts near surface waters.

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Issues of Potential Concern• When crop prices are high and CRP rental rates are low,

farmers can often make more money converting their land to crop production than keeping it enrolled in CRP.

• Converting CRP acres to cropland increases soil erosion and surface runoff, degrading and filling nearby wetlands and streams with sediment.

• Corn requires more pesticide input per acre than soy and most other food crops.

• In landscapes dominated by corn, estimates suggest that around 17.8 to 35.7 lbs of the nitrogen applied per acre is transported to downstream aquatic ecosystems each year.

• The amount of phosphorous lost from corn fields can range from 1.8 to 13.4 lbs per acre in a year.

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

BackgroundUSA: 96.4 mil. acres in 2012, largest corn crop in 75 years Corn prices can exceed $8.00/bu, Soybeans $12.00/bu Land under CRP contract for the 2008 crop year: 34.66

million acres, down 2.11 million acres from 36.77 million acres in 2007.

States with the largest CRP declines: North Dakota and South Dakota, with losses of 400,000 and 248,000 acres, respectively.

Source: USDA, 2008

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)

The CRP works to protect environmentally-sensitive farmland voluntarily submitted into the program. To determine which lands are eligible, the CRP uses an Environmental Benefits Index (EBI), which scores a parcel of land on various criteria for suitability for protection (proximity to water, rare or endangered species, slope, etc.).

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Source: Agricultural Marketing Services Division, MN Department of Agriculture, 2008

2013 Minnesota Wetlands ConferenceC

OR

N

Source: Agricultural Marketing Services Division, MN Department of Agriculture, 2008

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Minnesota’s Top Corn Counties, 1990 & 2007 Production

Source: Agricultural Marketing Services Division, MN Department of Agriculture, 2008

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Minnesota Corn Prices Received by Growers (monthly, $/bushel)

Source: Agricultural Marketing Services Division, MN Department of Agriculture

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Minnesota Corn Utilization

Source: Agricultural Marketing Services Division, MN Department of Agriculture, 2008

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Minnesota Corn Processing (million bushels)

Source: Agricultural Marketing Services Division, MN Department of Agriculture, 2008

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

U.S. Ethanol Production

Source: Renewable Fuels Association, 2013

$7.20 - $8.60 /bu corn Sept. 2012

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Minnesota: 1997: 10% ethanol blend; 2005: 2% biodiesel blend 2013: 20% ethanol blend

Source: MDA, 2013

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Source: Agricultural Marketing Services Division, MN Department of Agriculture, 2013

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Mil

lio

n g

allo

ns

Minnesota Ethanol Economic Impact

Year Production (Million Gallons) Output Impact ($ million) Employment (# of Jobs)

1990 11 28.51 166

1991 17 42.38 247

1992 35 89.30 520

1993 38 90.96 529

1994 41 101.45 590

1995 51 115.26 671

1996 69 203.51 1,089

1997 112 275.66 1,476

1998 124 254.38 1,362

1999 190 352.47 1,759

2000 220 511.48 2,231

2001 252 802.60 3,132

2002 300 732.24 2,858

2003 359 1,074.32 4,008

2004 400 1,476.02 5,506

2005 420 1,577.00 5,883

2006 550 2,766.61 10,321

2007 (Projected) 620 3,067.80 11,444

2008 (Projected) 1,000 4,948.61 18,461

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

GIS uses the power of a computer and specialized software to stack different maps and data layers on top of each other so that they can be compared and analyzed.

Data layers used:• Minnesota Conservation Reserve Program

(CRP) GIS Database; 1997 (pre-ethanol) and 2008 (post-ethanol)

• Ethanol Biorefinery Locations 2012 (Renewable Fuels Association)

• 2010 Stream Assessments (MPCA)• Lakes from the USGS 1:100,000 Digital Line

Graph Hydrography Layer (MDNR)• Base imagery from ESRI (Digital Globe, FSA)

Initial Observations:

Yellow denotes CRPacreage lost between

1997 and 2008 (742 acres)

Red denotes CRPacreage gained between

1997 and 2008 (537 acres)within 5 miles of the

Central MN Ethanol Coop,Little Falls, MN

(Morrison county)

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Closeup of CRPacreage lost

between1997 and 2008, just west of the

Little Falls ethanol plant. Note

proximity to surface waters.

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

Comparison of 1997 and 2008 CRP acres

within 0.25 mi. of surface water body or

stream(sub-section of

Kandiyohi county)

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

  No change

CRPlost

% of total 1997 acres

CRP gained

Assessed Streams

107,270 156,937 10.29 229,388

Lakes 73,885 130,010 8.53 132,075

Changes to MN CRP acreage within 0.25 mile of assessed streams or lakes between 1997 and 2008.

Conclusions• CRP enrollment has increased overall between 1997 and

2008 in Minnesota• Up to 10% of 1997 CRP acres near water lost by 2008• Corn prices may affect future CRP enrollment decisions

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference

2013 Minnesota Wetlands Conference