Incorporate into Final Blueprint - California...2020/01/10  · TAM Board Meeting, Item 10 Page 3 of 5 January 23, 2020 • Incorporate into Final Blueprint o Create a Next-Generation

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TAM Board Meeting, Item 10 Page 2 of 5 January 23, 2020

reduction in GHG emission is directly related to the transportation required due to the forecasted location of jobs and housing. The Plan Bay Area 2050 Draft Blueprint will identify complementary strategies designed to advance the Guiding Principles adopted MTC in September 2019. The Draft Blueprint strategies are organized into four interconnected topical areas: transportation, housing, economy, and environment. The Draft Blueprint will study two different packages of strategies: “Blueprint Basic” that assumes no new revenues are raised, and “Blueprint Plus” that integrates new regional revenues to support a more expansive strategy package. Transportation Element In April 2019, the TAM Board accepted its initial draft list of projects for Marin County for consideration in Plan Bay Area 2050. MTC’s primary goal for this exercise was to identify a universe of projects to be considered for inclusion into Plan Bay Area 2050. In addition to the projects submitted by CMAs, MTC has included “Transformative Projects” submitted though a public call for projects over the summer of 2018. Since then, MTC has been developing the transportation element of the plan, based on the results of the project performance assessment, assessment of the region’s operation and maintenance needs and revenues, and the strategies identified in the Horizons effort. Initial information was presented at the TAM board in November 2019. Since that time, MTC has:

• Refined the cost estimates to maintain and improve the existing transportation system. The region’s “fix it first” strategy prioritizes maintaining the existing transportation system. The most recent estimates show that costs for maintenance of the system have grown as new projects have been built, and the longer outlook of the plan to 2050.

• Identified available and potential revenues for new investments. In December 2019, MTC reported that $471 billion are expected to be available for transportation over the RTP period, or $544 billion with considered new revenue initiatives.

• Estimated Amount of revenues for expansion projects. MTC is estimating $106 to $179 billion will be available to address modernization and/or system improvements and expansion.

In addition to the fiscal elements of the plan, MTC is also considering four high level strategies to include in the plan. These strategies have performed well in Horizon and initial modeling for Plan Bay Area 2050 to meet GHG reduction requirements and other plan goals: 1. Operate and Maintain the System 2. Create Healthy Streets

• Incorporate into Draft Blueprint o Build a Complete Micromobility Network: build out nearly 10,000 miles of new bicycle

infrastructure, including protected bike lanes and trails. o Lower Speed Limits on Highways & Local Streets: reduce local street speed limits in growth

areas to 25 mph and reduce highway speed limits to 55 mph. o Build & Operate Lower Cost Transit Projects, including bus, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), and

ferry projects. • Incorporate into Final Blueprint

o Provide Free Shared Bike & Shuttle Services 3. Enhance Regional Transit

• Incorporate into Draft Blueprint o Complete Set of Plan Bay Area 2040 Transit Expansion Projects: o Construct projects including BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit) to Silicon Valley Phase 2,

SMART (Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit) to Windsor, and key BRT lines. o Build a New Transbay Rail Crossing (assuming new revenues) o Integrate Transit Fares Across the Region’s Operators

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• Incorporate into Final Blueprint o Create a Next-Generation Rail Network o Build and Operate a Regional Express Bus Network o Provide Free Transit to Lower-Income Residents

4. Manage Freeway Demand

• Incorporate into Draft Blueprint o Develop a Single Platform to Access and Pay for All Mobility o Apply Tolls Based on Time of Day and Vehicle Occupancy on All Freeways.

• Incorporate into Final Blueprint o Build Express Lanes and Address Interchange Bottlenecks.

It’s important to note that while many of these high-level strategies may support Marin County’s transportation efforts, implementation of many of these strategies would require additional analyses to understand their full impact to local transportation systems. Land Use Element The Regional Growth Forecast (RGF) is an important element of Plan Bay Area 2050’s long-range planning process. The forecast identifies how much the Bay Area might grow between the plan baseline year (2015) and the plan horizon year (2050), including population, jobs, households, and associated housing units. The RGF also includes characteristics of the growth, including employment by sector, population by age and ethnic characteristics, and the demographic characteristics and income distribution of households. The RGF will be used during the Blueprint planning phase to identify the total amount of growth, which will then be distributed to local areas using the UrbanSim 2.0 land use model based on strategies integrated into the Plan. MTC has developed a base and an upper range forecasts for Plan Bay Area 2050, reflecting an update to the process that allows MTC to forecast potential results from the region addressing affordability. For example, where and how much housing is built could change the cost of housing, as well as the cost and demand for labor. Similarly, a change in housing prices and location overall could further change the number and types of jobs that can be generated in the region as well as the labor force that can live in the region. Draft forecasts are shown in Table 1: PBA Forecast Scenarios:

Table 1: PBA Forecast Scenarios Base Case 2015 2040 2050 Employment 4,007,000 4,828,000 5,087,000 Population 7,630,000 9,059,000 9,692,000 Households 2,701,000 3,404,000 3,648,000 Housing Units 2,862,000 3,614,000 3,880,000 Upper Range Employment 4,007,000 4,909,000 5,200,000 Population 7,630,000 9,396,000 10,236,000 Households 2,701,000 3,693,000 4,021,000 Housing Units 2,862,000 4,043,000 4,404,000 PBA 2040 Employment 4,026,000 4,698,000 - Population 7,574,000 9,653,000 - Households 2,679,000 3,427,000 - Housing Units 2,840,000 3,605,000 -

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County level forecasts are currently being developed and will be shared with the TAM board in upcoming months. MTC has also released an overview of the connection between Plan Bay Area 2050 and RHNA noting that MTC and ABAG may choose to align growth estimates closer than what is required by state law. MTC staff is proposing that Transit Priority Areas (TPAs) and High Resource Areas (HRAs) be included in the SCS. Dependent on ABAG methodology, RHNA allocations to these areas may be increased beyond previous cycles if these areas are adopted into the SCS. Environmental Element The Environment Element of the Draft Blueprint will include strategies designed to reduce transportation related GHG emissions, address impacts from climate change and natural hazards, and conserve agriculture, open space, and working lands. The strategies in this section are complementary to those in other elements of the plan and should be thought of together, not in isolation. Building on Plan Bay Area 2040 and Horizon, MTC staff are recommending the study of four environmental strategies in the Draft Blueprint: Reduce Transportation-Related GHG Emissions

• Expand the Climate Initiatives Program captures additional GHG reductions from Plan Bay Area 2040 strategies that comprise MTC’s Climate Initiatives Program, as well as new strategies under consideration such as increased electrification requirements for transportation network companies.

Conserve Agricultural Lands and Open Space

• Keep Current Urban Growth Boundaries in Place continues to be recommended in the Draft Blueprint; this strategy has been a part of both prior versions of Plan Bay Area.

Address Climate and Hazard Impacts

• Adapt to Sea Level Rise to reduce regional climate impacts. Three Horizon sea level rise strategies will be merged into this single strategy for the Draft Blueprint, contingent on funding availability in Blueprint Basic.

• Modernize Existing Buildings with Seismic, Wildfire, Drought, and Energy Retrofits to preserve existing housing. The strategy aims to make existing homes healthier and safer while also reducing the carbon and water footprint of the Bay Area’s aging homes, contingent upon new revenues available in Blueprint Plus.

FISCAL CONSIDERATION Plan Bay Area 2050 does not program or allocate funding. However, transportation projects in the RTP are included in CEQA (California Environmental Quality Act) requirements related to air quality for the region, allowing projects to become eligible for state and federal funding. NEXT STEPS Staff will work with MTC and project sponsors to bring a revised, fiscally constrained county project list to the Board for review in March 2020. Staff will work closely with MTC to interpret the results of the project performance effort and develop regional priorities for inclusion into the RTP. MTC is expected to continue discussion on the transportation blueprint of the plan, and TAM staff will report out on this effort over the coming months. Once the transportation element of the plan is drafted, the plan timeline is summarized as follows:

• MTC will develop draft regional population and housing growth forecasts for local jurisdictions’ review in early 2020;

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• Develop the Draft Plan Bay Area 2050 Report and environmental reports, in late 2020 • Approve the environmental reports and Plan Bay Area 2050 in mid-2021, and • Adopt RHNA allocations in 2021.

ATTACHMENTS Attachment A: TAM Board Initial Project List – Approved April 2019 Attachment B: TAM Board Presentation

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SUBMITTED TO MTC IN APRIL 2019

TAM’s RTP Project List Submitted to MTC 1

TAM DRAFT RTP Project List – April 25, 2019 Programmatic Category Projects in Category (not exclusive) Minor Highway Improvements Highway Interchange Improvements

Bellam Boulevard Improvements Bike/Ped Crossings Auxiliary Lanes

Minor Roadway Improvements Local Road Rehab Projects Sea Level Rise Bridge Replacement HSIP Projects Sir Francis Drake Boulevard 3rd Street 2nd Street East Blithedale Ave

Minor Transit Improvements Bus Stop Shelter Replacements Access to transit Fleet Expansion/Facilities Manzanita Park and Ride Other Park and Ride Improvements Transit Service Expansion

New Bicycle & Pedestrian Facilities North South Greenway Projects SMART Multi Use Path Cross Marin Bikeway 2nd to Anderson Path Grand Avenue East Francisco Boulevard Central Marin Gap Closure Bay Trail Segments Approaches to the RSR Bridge Safe Pathways Projects Small Safety Projects Safe Routes to Transit Projects

Management Systems Ramp Metering Phase 1 & 2 Innovative Technology

Safety and Security Safe Routes to Schools Program Crossing Guard Program

Travel Demand Management TDM Program Alt Fuels Program Traveler Information Programs

Intersection Improvements Anderson at Drake The Hub

Multimodal Streetscape Improvements Local Road Improvements

Item 10 - Attachment A

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SUBMITTED TO MTC IN APRIL 2019

TAM’s RTP Project List Submitted to MTC 2

Non-Exempt Projects

Project Sponsor

Est. Construction Date

Est. Operation Date

Project Cost

Transit Capacity Increasing SMART Larkspur Extension Project Completed 2019 2019 2019 $ 40 Downtown Novato SMART Station Fully Funded 2019 2019 $ 5 San Rafael Transit Center Relocation GGBHTD 2024 2026 $ 45 Marin Transit O&M Facility MT 2021 2024 $ 31 Larkspur Ferry Parking Garage GGBHTD 2024 2026 $ 64 Bus On Shoulder on Highway 101 TAM 2027 2029 $ 50 Subtotal $ 190 Roadway Capacity Increasing RSR Eastbound Travel Lane 2017 $ 74 Marin Sonoma Narrows TAM 2020 2023 $ 151 US 101/I-580 Direct Connector TAM 2025 2026 $ 147 RSR Westbound Joint Use Lane* TAM 2022 2023 $ 160 Resilient State Route 37 TAM 2030 2036 $ 1,000 Novato Boulevard** Novato 2021 2023 $ 15 Subtotal $ 1,473 TOTAL $ 1,664

MTC Target Budget 1,174

* Funding from Toll O&M ** The addition of a roadway lane requires this project to be listed as a non-exempt project.

Additional Notes – Projects in Strikethrough text indicate fully funded projects or completed projects since the last RTP submittal process. MTC target budget does not provide a forecast for revenue sources and will be revised once revenue forecasts are developed.

Item 10 - Attachment A

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MTC Horizon & Plan Bay Area 2050 Update

TAM Board of CommissionersJanuary 23, 2020

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Plan Bay Area Background• Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) is a Federal and

State Mandated Process• In 2008, SB 375 Integrated Transportation & Land Use

planning to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets – Sustainable Community Strategy (SCS):

• Show how region meets GHG goals• Show how the region will house its population

• Allows Transportation Projects to Meet Air Quality Requirements, a condition of Regional, State and Federal Funding

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Plan Bay Area (2013)

Plan Bay Area 2040 (2017)

Horizon Effort (2018-19)

Plan Bay Area 2050 (2021)

Plan Bay Area 2050

• Draft Blueprint (February 2020)• Looking at two revenue scenarios

• Draft Blueprint Basic and Draft Blueprint Plus• MTC to assess ability to reach GHG reduction targets

• Final Blueprint (Summer 2020)• Further Refinements and final project list to reach GHG

reduction target

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Main Elements of PBA 2050

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Role of New Revenues

• Blueprint Basic and Blueprint Plus

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Transportation Strategies

• MTC staff are proposing high level strategies• Operate and Maintain the System• Create Healthy Streets• Enhance Regional Transit• Manage Freeway Demand

• Projects in the plan may have less impact on GHG reduction than strategies or policies

• Draft strategies discussion allows for iterative approach to meeting GHG reduction targets

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Transportation Revenues

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Limited funding for New Projects

• TAM Staff is working closely with MTC to determine Revenues available for Marin County

• TAM board discussion in Feb/March on a Revised Project List

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New time periods for PBA 2050

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Growth Areas

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Environmental Element

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PBA 2050 - Upcoming

• Draft Blueprint - February 2020• Constrained List of Projects to TAM Board - March

2020• Testing of Plan Performance - Spring 2020• Final Blueprint - May/June 2020

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Regional Housing Needs Allocation

• RHNA Methodology Committee Formed.• Bulk of RHNA activities will occur in 2020. • Local Growth Totals (2019-2050) will be determined

by March 2020 (BIA Settlement).• 6th Cycle RHNA (2024-2032) by Summer 2021.• Recent Legislation will affect the RHNA Process,

and HCD will be more closely involved.

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Questions and DiscussionDerek McGillTAM Planning Manager [email protected]

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