Incidents of Juvenile Arrests January 2009 - May 2014.

Street Segment Analysis

of Juvenile Crime in Trenton

Louis Tuthill, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor of Criminology

Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Criminal Justice

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

Table of Contents• Juvenile Crime vs. Adult Crime• Point Pattern Analysis• Street Segment Analysis• Juvenile Incidents in Trenton• Area 1• Area 2• Area 3• Area 4• Area 5

Juvenile Crime vs. Adult Crime• In studying Juvenile Crime we attempt to pick at risk

youth and address the “risk” and “protective” factors that impact individual youth• Effective programs are expensive and address cognitive and

behavioral change at the individual and familial level• Individual level information can also be used to assess

networks of juveniles engaged in criminal behavior

• Challenges with model:• Cost of treating individuals• Labeling youth as “criminal” or “at risk” can create other issues• Effective targeting of resources to address needs

Point Pattern Analysis• Takes all these points (kernel)

and maps them into positions based on the closeness of these incidents (KDE)• Measures the density or

closeness of the same criminal event• Provides cross-sectional

rendering of crime events• Rendering includes several

streets and statistical “white noise”

Street Segment Analysis• Maps event to the nearest street• Uses a density function LISA (Local Indicator of Spatial

Autocorrelation) • Provides a statistical measure of street segments where

crime cluster high• We then look to each individual street segment which are

separated by one segment. This gives us street segment clusters.• Then we can examine each of these street segments, based

on the crime and the physical environment, see what factors might be contributing to crime• We can also then measure the change in these cluster over

time

Incidents of Juvenile Arrests

January 2009 - May 2014

• Identified 126 Street Segments

• Segments make up 3.6% of Trenton's geographic space

• 48.7% all juvenile arrests occurred within one block of these areas

• 63.3% all juvenile arrests occurred within two blocks of these areas

Examined each set of street clusters

• Looked for interconnection of streets

• Examined if the event was acute or chronic (time and prevalence)

• Looked at crimes within one standard block (330 feet) of these street segments

• We will examine the crime typology and the discuss how to best address the crime

Area 1

12 13 14 15 16 170.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1.4%2.7%

4.1%

20.3%

16.4%

55.2%

Area 1: Percent Of Offenders by Age

93%

7%

Percent of Offenders by Race

BlackWhite

11%

89%

Percent of Offenders by Sex

Female

Male

Area 1: Demographic Breakdown

0 0.125 0.6666666666666670

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Area 1: Percent of Arrests by Time of Day

1/2009 1/2009 3/2009 4/2009 6/2009 7/2009 9/200911/20091/2010 3/2010 5/2010 8/2010 2/2011 4/2011 5/2011 8/2011 2/2012 6/2012 3/2013 6/201312/20130

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Area 1: Percent of Juvenile Crime by Month and Year

Drugs

Other

Weapons

Disorderly Conduct

Curfew/Driving Violations/Truancy

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

26.9%

15.4%

7.4%

7.0%

6.6%

Area 1: Top Five Juvenile Arrests

Area 1• Predominantly drug use and related crimes• Mostly among Black males• Considerable uptick in activity between 8 and 11 pm• Significant jump in juvenile arrest in 2011 – seems to

have subsided• Late onset delinquency related to drug use

Area 2

BELLEVUE AVENUE

WEST STATE STREET

CA

LHO

UN

STR

EET

SPRING STREET

PR

OS

PE

CT

ST

RE

ET

PASSAIC STREET

WEST HANOVER STREET

PENNINGTON AVENUE

NO

RT

H W

ILL

OW

ST

RE

ET

RUTHERFORD AVENUE

CAPITAL STREET

PERRY STREET

CHURCH STREET

NO

RT

H B

RO

AD

ST

RE

ET

STATE OF NEW JERSEY ROUTE 29 SOUTH

NO

RT

H W

AR

RE

N S

TR

EE

T

COLE STREETW

AYNE AVENUEEDGEW

OOD AVENUE RESERVOIR STREET

FRAZIER STREET

OLIVE STREET

BLANE ALLEY

EAST STATE STREET

SWEETS AVENUE

MOSES ALLEY

BRUNSWIC

K AVENUE

WEST INGHAM AVENUE

TRENT STREET

MA

RT

IN L

UT

HE

R K

ING

JR

BO

UL

EV

AR

D

FIS

HE

R P

LAC

E

MA

RIO

N S

TREET

FOUNTAIN AVENUE

SEIGER ALLEY

EAST HANOVER STREET

ACADEMY STREET

RICHEY P

LACE

SUMMER STREET

NEW ROSE STREET

STUYVESANT AVENUE

BOND STREET

GILBERT ALLEY

BOUDINOT STREET

EXTO

N A

VEN

UE

ALLEN STREET

ENGLE ALLEY

AMBOY ALLEY

PASHLEY AVENUE

WE

ST

EN

D A

VE

NU

E

ARTISAN STREETW

EBB ALLEY

MEYER STREET

JARVIS PLACE

BA

RN

ES

ST

RE

ET

BE

LM

AR

AL

LE

Y

MONUMENT STREET

ENGLISH ALLEY

NEL

SON

STR

EET

12 13 14 15 16 170.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

0.5%

4.2%

12.0%

16.0%

20.1%

47.2%


95%

5%


BlackWhite

9%

91%


Female

Male


1 19 40 55 115 219 314 944 101911351232140014311459162317301831191320052017202820442055210621352208223022512303231523350

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5


1/2009 1/2010 6/20123/2009 5/2009 6/2009 8/2009 9/2009 11/2009 3/2010 7/2010 1/2011 5/2011 7/2011 1/2012 10/2013 1/20140

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4


1/2009 3/2009 5/2009 6/2009 8/2009 9/2009 11/2009 1/2010 3/2010 7/2010 1/2011 5/2011 7/2011 1/2012 6/2012 10/2013 1/20140

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Percent of Juvenile Crime by Month and YearComparison of Areas 1 & 2

Drugs

Other

Weapons

Disorderly Conduct

Stolen Property

Curfew/Driving Violations/Truancy

Burglary

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

26.4%

19.4%

8.6%

6.0%

5.3%

4.9%

4.4%


Area 2• Predominantly drug related offenses

• More variety in type of criminal activity

• Mostly black males• Both time lines show general increase in juvenile crimes in 2011

– drop off beginning June 2012• It appears that efforts in Area 1 pushed delinquency into Area 2• We need more data to see if crime in Area 2 was disbursed or moved

• Different timeline than Area• Morning crimes• Afternoon crime (related to property crimes)• Evening crimes (related to drug markets)

• Late onset delinquency related to drug use

Area 3

12 13 14 15 16 170

10

20

30

40

50

60

1.42.7

4.1

20.3

16.4

55.2


91%

2% 7%


BlackOtherWhite

16%

84%


Female

Male


1 21 30 42 55 121 139 159 423 927 1054 1129 1232 1423 1531 1754 1837 2007 2026 2044 2103 2143 2206 2219 2235 2305 2320 23480

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


1/20

09

2/20

09

2/20

09

3/20

09

4/20

09

5/20

09

6/20

09

7/20

09

7/20

09

8/20

09

9/20

09

9/20

09

10/2

009

11/2

009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10

2/20

10

2/20

10

3/20

10

3/20

10

5/20

10

8/20

10

10/2

010

11/2

010

12/2

010

1/20

11

5/20

11

6/20

11

6/20

11

11/2

011

12/2

011

12/2

011

3/20

12

6/20

12

8/20

12

8/20

12

11/2

012

1/20

13

8/20

13

11/2

013

5/20

140

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2


Drugs

Other

Disorderly Conduct

Weapons

Burglary

Stolen Property

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

33.1%

13.5%

10.2%

6.2%

3.6%

3.6%


Area 3• Predominantly drug related activity

• Other crimes: weapons, burglary, & stolen property • Related to the drug market• Related to need to generate incomes

• Mostly black males• Uptick in criminal activity in early afternoon and evening• Different time of year pattern from Areas 1 and 2

• Important to note differences in time of day and time of year for resource allocation purposes

• Late onset delinquency

Area 4

10 12 13 14 15 16 170.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0.2%

2.7%4.2%

9.5%

14.2%

21.2%

48.0%


87%

13%


BlackWhite

16%

84%


Female

Male


8 100 155 236 330 603 856 1000 1100 1135 1230 1307 1355 1436 1506 1533 1603 1700 1816 1911 2000 2034 2137 2207 2225 2243 23160

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


1/2009 2/2009 3/2009 5/2009 7/2009 10/2009 10/2009 1/2010 2/2010 3/2010 7/2010 10/2010 1/2011 4/2011 10/2011 3/2012 1/2013 8/20130

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2


Weapons

Other

Drugs

Disorderly Conduct

Robbery

0 5 10 15 20 25

20.4

15

11.9

10.8

7.7


Area 4• Predominantly drug related activity• More violent area – chief illicit commodity appears to

be weapons• First case of robbery in Area 4

• Mostly among black males• Most activities occurred in the evening• Late onset of delinquency

Area 5

10 12 13 14 15 16 170.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

2.5%4.4%

5.7%

8.9%7.0%

23.4%

48.1%


72%

28%


Black

White

6%

94%


Female

Male


0 13 41 136

229

500

953

1011

1137

1223

1303

1401

1420

1515

1659

1756

1805

1826

1910

1925

2013

2056

2149

2212

2308

2323

2329

2339

2345

2351

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


1/20

09

3/20

09

4/20

09

6/20

09

7/20

09

8/20

09

9/20

09

9/20

09

1/20

10

3/20

10

4/20

10

5/20

10

6/20

10

6/20

10

10/2

010

12/2

010

4/20

11

6/20

11

11/2

011

1/20

12

2/20

12

4/20

12

7/20

12

11/2

012

10/2

013

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


Drugs

Weapons

Disorderly Conduct

Other

Arson

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

21.5%

13.9%

12.0%

8.9%

5.7%


Area 5• Predominantly drug use and related crimes• Mostly among black males• Stable drug market• Activity occurred throughout the day• Late onset delinquency

Overall analysis• Overall it appears that the serious juvenile crime is

spurred by drug markets• This began in 2009 and has moved around the city in an

overall upward swing• It appears that older juveniles are being incorporated into

current drug markets • Older juveniles appear to be used to transport illicit merchandise

• Juveniles are also arming themselves for protection• Juveniles appear to be reacting effectively to law

enforcement responses by moving around the city

Overall analysis• Arrest of this population has been found to be the worst

response• Most of the factors with regard to late onset have much

more to do with peer-group, labeling, and family dynamics• If we are going to intervene we need to do it in late-middle

or early-high school• We need consistent effort target at this population because

we are generally competing with the gangs• From the Trenton adult data this age becomes the launching

point where individuals begin to engage in more serious crime

Louis Tuthill, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor of Criminology

Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Criminal Justice

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

Incidents of Juvenile Arrests January 2009 - May 2014.

Documents

individual street segment

street segments segments

street segment clusters

crime typology

set of street clusters

crime cluster highwe

criminal justicerutgers

risk youth