In This Issue Key Highlights for the Month€¦ · In its third quarter review in Jan, RBI cut the benchmark Repo rate by 25bps (a much expected move), and also CRR by 25bps, a move

In This Issue

• Market Outlook for the month

• Equity Market Outlook

• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook

• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas

• Model Advisory Portfolios

• Recommended Funds

• Investment Solutions

Global Market

Index 31-Jan-13 MoM (%) YoY (%)

Sensex 19,895 2.4 15.7

Nifty 6,035 2.2 16.1

FTSE 100 6,277 6.4 6.9

Dow 13,861 5.8 9.7

Nasdaq 3,142 4.0 11.7

Hang Seng 23,730 4.7 16.4

Key Indicators Current Month Change (%)

IIP (Nov) -0.1% -101.22

WPI (Dec) 7.18% -5.53

10 Year Yield 7.91% -1.74

USD/ INR 53.34 -2.65

Crude ($) 115.55 4.01

Gold (10 gms) 30169 -0.91

Economic Pulse

Thought for the month

Key Highlights for the Month

FIIs continue to be buyers with inflows of `21,200cr

Reforms roll ahead-diesel prices hiked

Corporate earnings bottomming out, RBI cuts rates

All eyes on the FM with the union budget coming up

Dear Investor,

Nifty had a tepid beginning in 2013, with a 2.2% return

in January. On a relative basis, this was in line with global

trends with most developed as well as emerging markets

turning positive returns. Even this small positive move was

due to a few specific sectors- Oil & Gas and IT Services,

where in each of these sectors had some positive

development which helped valuations go up.

Overall trading range in the month of January continued to be narrow at just 132

points (2.2%). FIIs continued their buying spree with inflows of `21,200cr, while DIIs

remained net seller with outflow of `17,258cr. This was after the CY2012 Nifty gain

of 27% when FIIs infused `129,890cr, and DII sold `59,794cr.

In its third quarter review in Jan, RBI cut the benchmark Repo rate by 25bps (a much

expected move), and also CRR by 25bps, a move expected to give fillip to markets.

January saw an important move from the Union Government as it moved to

systematically increase prices of heavily subsidized diesel fuel, which will help reduce

fiscal deficit. Parallely, the government has furthered its disinvestment objectives with

OFS for Oil India, thus raking in (on a cumulated basis) ~1/3rd of its `27,000cr

disinvestment target for FY13. 3QFY13 results season is in full swing, with numbers

reported so far being in line with expectations.

Gautam Sinha Roy - Vice President

Way Forward

All eyes will now be on the FM's next move- the Union Budget for FY14 and how

he seeks to further address the three deficits - Fiscal Account, Current Account and

Policy. The FM will aggressively look to improve the GDP growth rate from 5.5-6%

levels being witnessed currently. The FM has targeted reduction in the fiscal deficit

of the Central Government from 5.3% of GDP in FY13 to 3.0% of GDP by FY17, with

a 50bps reduction targeted for FY14. How he does this in the face of an election year

would be keenly watched.

Inflation: Rebound in oil prices could lead to inflationary pressure domestically.

Threats

Opportunities

3Q FY13 corporate earnings should likely mark the end of earnings growth

decline cycle, with earnings growth likely to pick up in the coming quarters.

Further easing of the monetary cycle would support earnings growth.

February 2013

Wide Current account deficit and a weak Rupee is further acerbating this issue.

Equity Market Outlook

• Nifty for the month of January closed with a gain of 129 points. The monthly chart

reported a higher top and higher bottom which indicates that the trend continues to

remain up. Monthly low of 5930 can act as an important support and for the up-trend

to be healthy, the Nifty should trade above this pivotal level.

• The daily chart of Nifty indicates the index is within a channel with the lower range

support around 6000. In the case of any further breakdown on the index, next

important support to watch would be in the band of 5900-5930. On the upside, the

channel has resistance placed at 6140.

• Nifty in dollar terms has tested its swing high in Feb 2012 which is an important

resistance for the index. Until the level is taken out on the upside, risk of failure will be

high and funds outflow can be expected from FIIs.

• Sector Rotation indicates most of the sectors in positive which means that the tactical

re-shuffling of portfolio may yield narrow spreads as relative performance is turning

neutral. Auto & Realty is expected to outperform with high beta upside expectations

in Energy, IT, Infra & Metals.

Technical Outlook

Support for the Index is placed at 5900

Resistance can be faced at 6180

BANK NIFTY

BankNifty remains neutral relative to Nifty

It is consolidating in a rectangle pattern

Breakout points for the short term pattern is placed at 12400 & 12950

Resistance for the index can be seen at 13300 (Bearish Engulfing Pattern)

Key support for the index lies at 12400

Private Banks can relatively outperform

Sectoral Highlights

Sector Our Views Top Pick Recommendation#

Auto Positive Maruti Buy above 1630

IT Positive TCS Buy above 1380

Energy Positive Oil India Buy above 530

FMCG Negative HUL Sell below 464

#Technical view for 1 month perspective

MOSL's Recommendations

Nifty

Markets & Our Recommendations

On This Page




Lite-Desktop : 24*7 Online Acess | Transfer Funds Online from 46+ banks | Leverage & Margin Multiple benefit | Integrated Research

• Long positions could be made above 6040

for a potential of 6180 & a stop below 5980.

• Sell positions could be made below 5980 for

a potential of 5900 & a stop above 6020.

February 2013

2

Derivatives Market Outlook


On This Page

Derivatives Market Outlook, Commodities Market Outlook

Derivatives Market Outlook

3 Jan Series witnessed Total Rollovers of 82% (6m-avg 81%), Nifty rollovers of 59%

(6m-avg 63%) whereas SGX Nifty rollovers stood at 82% (6m-avg 77%).

3 Total Open Interest at the start of Feb’13 expiry is `971.0bn as against `960.3bn at the

start of Jan’13 expiry.

3 Stocks which have witnessed rise in Near Month OI over the last 3 expiries include PNB,

Idea and Ranbaxy whereas stocks which have witnessed drop in Near Month OI over the

last 3 expiries include M&M, Maruti, Reliance.

3 In Feb series for Nifty, Highest Call OI is at 6100 strike with 5.04mn shs and highest Put OI

is at 6000 strike with 5.1mn shares.

• Strategy : Long Iron Condor

• Trade : Buy 6300 CE @7, Sell 6100 CE @50, Sell 6000 PE @65, Buy 5800 PE @16

• View : Nifty is expected to continue to trade in a narrow band around current levels

We will also seek to curtail losses in case there is a major move in Nifty, given

that India VIX currently at 14.3 has been trading near its bottom of 13.50.

Strategy of the Month

MOSL's Recommendations

INDEX: NIFTY LOT SIZE: 50

Strategy ::::: Long Iron Condor

Premium Inflow ::::: `4,600

Pay off Profile On Expiry

Break Even

Point

Maximum

Profit

Maximum

Loss

6192 & 5908 4600 5400

Commodities Market Outlook

My Motilal Oswal : Personalized Website Experience | Single SignOn | Uniform Report Formats | Integrated view of BackOffice

February 2013

3

Precious Metals outlook for 2013

3 Gold and silver have lived up to their safe-haven status during the financial crisis which began in late 2007 and continued till now, but they

appear to be losing some of their sheen off-late.

3 Both have had a wobbly start to the year, despite an open ended asset purchase program (QE3) from the Fed, and persistence of risk in the

macroeconomic conditions due the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff.

3 The performance of gold for entire 2012 has been erratic, which raised concerns for tradition gold bulls and questioned the future of gold. There

are 3 major reasons for us to be bearish on gold over the short term.

• There is no new financial crisis budding in the market, most of the bad news is already in the price.

• Recent erratic performance coupled with reduced demand for safe-havens has reduced the investor interest in gold, evident in the falling

monthly cash flows in to Gold ETFs across the world over the last five months.

• Softer physical markets, after the prolonged bull-run the buyers have now become more price sensitive and the largest buyer (India) is

trying to reduce its imports of gold, which may have its long term impact on international gold prices.

3 As concerns for safety diminish, dollar also could weaken against other currencies and against the rupee as well. However, the dollar weakness

also doesn't seem to be helping the international gold prices too, and the correlation of gold with EURUSD has fallen to 25% over the last three

months, which means the falling dollar is not pushing up gold, and on the other hand appreciating rupee will put additional pressure.

3 We remain cautiously bearish on precious metals and expect them to correct by 10-12% this year on International market, where as domestic

markets could witness much deeper cut of more than 15% complemented by added pressure from rupee appreciation.

BUYBUYBUYBUYBUY

Muthoot Finance

CMP*: `228

Target: `350

Must Act

On This Page

Large Cap Investment Ideas, Mid Cap Investment Ideas

Large Cap Investment Ideas

Market & Our Recommendation

3 Idea Cellular, an Aditya Birla Group company, is India's fifth largest wireless operator.

3 Our recent industry interactions indicate increased focus on profitability across

challengers; footprint reduction is ongoing in several circles.

3 Given stressed balance sheets and tapering in voice traffic growth; we believe RPM

improvement is inevitable.

3 We maintain Buy with a revised Target price of `140/share based on 8xFY15 EV/EBITDA,

`5mn/tower valuation for Indus tower stake, and negative value of `33/share for

potential spectrum liability.

3 ICICI is expected to deliver EPS CAGR of 23%+ over FY12-15E, driving up the core RoE from

~10% in FY10 to 17%+ in FY15E. Also, Tier 1 would remain 10%+ at end-FY15.

3 ICICI has managed the asset quality reasonably during the last 18 months of pain in the

Indian economy. Recovery in Indian economy / corporate capex will be further positive for

ICICI's asset quality & earnings.

3 Valuations for ICICIBC will evolve as it delivers RoE improvement over the next 2 years to

come at the near sector averages.

3 We rate as a Buy with target price of `1400.

3 Huge gold holding in Indian household (~19000 tonnes, ~10% of world gold) to

ensure healthy growth in gold loans

3 RBI constituted committee draft recommendations to allay regulatory concerns in the

minds of investors

3 MF is the largest gold financing company in India (with Market Share of 20% in FY12;

with highest RoE in the industry at ~32%)

3 Valuations at 2x FY14E ABV and 7.3x FY14E EPS are reasonable considering healthy

growth prospects, high RoE and low delinquencies

3 Recommend BUY with a target price of `350 (2.7x FY14E P/ABV and 11x FY14E EPS)

3 Leadership in the 2-wheeler cables space with more than 70% market-share of 3 leading

players

3 Rising share of Honda's Indian 2-wheeler cable requirements

3 Growth from new model launches in FY14-FY16 by global partners

3 Valuations at 7x on FY14 basis and dividend yield of ~2-2.5%,

3 Interim dividend of `0.35/share declared, Record date for this interim dividend is 15th

February 2013.

3 We raise our target to `45/share (9xFY14 EPS) and recommend to Accumulate

Data as on 31st January 2013


BUYBUYBUYBUYBUY

Suprajit Engineering

CMP*: `34

Target: `45

Mid Cap Investment Ideas

February 2013

BUYBUYBUYBUYBUY

Idea Cellular

CMP*: `113

Target: `140

BUYBUYBUYBUYBUY

ICICI Bank

CMP*: `1191

Target: `1400

4

Build a Portfolio

On This Page

MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap

MOSt Value - Model Advisory Portfolio for Investors

Scrip MBP Wtg.ICICI Bank 1200 10

SBI 2440 10

Maruti 1585 10

Dr Reddy 1920 10

NMDC 155 10

Idea 114 10

Infosys 2800 10

Tech Mahindra 690 5

LIC Housing 285 5

Sintex Ind 62 5

Hindalco 117 5

Cash 10

Total 100

Sectoral Allocation For Whom

Investment Duration

Risk Profile

For few months to a year

DefensiveInvestors

What’s In What’s Out

Scrip MBP Wtg. Sectoral Allocation For Whom

Investment Duration

Risk Profile

Medium TermInvestors

Few months horizon

ModerateInvestors

Hindalco 117 7.5

ICICI Bank 1200 7.5

Mcleod Russel 365 7.5

NMDC 155 7.5

SBI 2440 7.5

Oriental Bank 338 7.5

Lupin 610 7.5

Maruti 1585 5

Indusind Bank 440 5

Infosys 2800 5

ACC 1335 5

Idea 115 5

Cash 22.5

Total 100

Tata Motor DVRL&T

Long TermInvestors


MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Advisory Portfolio for Positional Traders

MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors


Scrip MBP Wtg.Mcleod Russel 365 10.5

Muthoot Fin. 235 10.2

FDC 95 10.1

Engineers India 230 10.1

TBZ 240 10.1

Gruh Finance 225 10.0

GMDC 200 9.9

Bata India 800 9.7

Unichem Labs 195 9.5

Bajaj Finance 1300 7.9

Cash (For Bajaj Fin Rights) 1.8

Total 100

Sectoral Allocation For Whom

Investment Duration

Risk Profile

For few months to a year

AggressiveInvestors


Long TermInvestors

February 2013

5

IdeaInfosys

Bajaj Corp

ONGC

JPInfratechL&T

Tata Motor DVR

FDCDLF

SBI

Oriental Bank

LupinIndusind Bank

Infosys

ACCIdea

Bajaj Corp

Orient Paper

Emami

Muthoot Fin.

TBZ

Gruh Finance


Managed Funds

On This Page

MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio

MOSt PMS

Top Holdings in Value Strategy

• The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done

in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.

• Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued stocks,

irrespective of Index Movements.

• Since Inception Value Strategy has delivered CAGR returns of 27.31 % Vs.19.82 % of S&P

CNX Nifty.

• Money multiplied by 10 times in just 9+ years. ̀ 1Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is

worth `10.82 Crs vs. 5.97 Crs in S&P CNX Nifty

• Double the Returns compared to Benchmark: In last 5 years, Value Strategy has delivered

6.88% annualized returns vs. 3.27 % of S&P CNX Nifty.

Value Strategy

Scrips % Holdings

HDFC Bank Ltd 12.29

Bosch Ltd 11.14

State Bank of India 9.91

Nestle India Ltd. 9.66

HDFC Ltd 7.99


Sector Allocation % Holdings

Banking & Finance 30.18

Auto & Auto Ancillaries 21.74

Infotech 13.05

Pharmaceuticals 10.34

FMCG 9.66

MOSt PMS

NTDOP Strategy

• The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part

of the Next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Small

& Mid Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.

• The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services

& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.

• Since Inception NTDOP Strategy has delivered 10.19% annualized returns vs. -0.70% of CNX

Midcap, delivering an annualized alpha of 10.89%.

• In last 1 Year, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 35.45 % returns vs. 17.79 % of CNX Midcap and

generating an alpha of 17.66%.

Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy

Scrips % Holdings

Page Industries Ltd. 13.87

Bosch Ltd. 8.41

Eicher Motors Ltd. 7.94

J&K Bank 7.80

GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Ltd 7.48


Sector Allocation % Holdings

Banking & Finance 24.36

Auto & Auto Ancillaries 16.35

Textiles 13.87

FMCG 10.79

Chemicals 8.74

All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are post fees & expenses

MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio

G: Growth , E: Equity, D: Debt, F: Fund

DEFENSIVE - Low Risk Return %


Scheme Name Type 1yr 3yrs Wtg%

Franklin India Bluechip - G E 13.48 10.14 10%

HDFC Equity Fund - G E 16.96 10.35 10%

ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Eq F-Ret-G E 15.15 12.56 10%

Birla Sun Life G Sec Fund - LT - G D 10.31 9.76 15%

ICICI Prudential STP - G D 9.59 7.72 20%

Kotak Gilt - Invest Regular Plan - G D 12.45 9.33 15%

Templeton India STIP - G D 10.05 8.26 20%

AGGRESSIVE - High Risk Return %

Scheme Name Type 1yr 3yrs Wtg%

DSP BlackRock Small & Midcap F(G ) E 19.73 10.52 20%

Franklin India Bluechip - G E 13.48 10.14 20%

Franklin India Flexi Cap Fund - G E 15.96 9.66 10%

HDFC Equity Fund - G E 16.96 10.35 10%

ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Eq F-Ret-G E 15.15 12.56 10%

ICICI Prudential STP - G D 9.59 7.72 15%

Templeton India STIP - G D 10.05 8.26 15%


February 2013

6

All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are post fees & expenses

7

MOSt Pyramid

On This Page

Investment Solutions

February 2013

7

Game Changer


Our research shows* that most people lose money in the stock markets by holding fundamentally poor stocks

in their portfolio.

To safeguard our customers from these potential pitfalls and help them build solid portfolios, we had launched

MOSt Pyramid on 9th Aug 2012.

MOSt Pyramid investment strategy invests in well-diversified sectoral/market leader stocks so that even in

adverse market conditions your portfolio remains SOLID. Not only this, MOSt Pyramid also allows you to

leverage short-term market volatility by booking systematic profits.

Best Suited for:

• Medium to long term investment

• Suitable for defensive to moderate investors

Disclaimer: MOSt Pyramid is only a suggested investment strategy and not a Portfolio Management Service. This investment strategy does not promise any guaranteed

returns.

MOSt PyramidSOLID Strategy to build a SOLID Portfolio

Why MOSt Pyramid?

Our Approach

Where we Invest?

• Range-bound markets reducing earning opportunities

• Movements in short spurts

• Attractive valuations

• Need for disciplined trading

• Portfolio diversification in 4-5 sectors

• Value averaging by buying at lower levels

• Regular profit booking ensuring reduced acquisition costs

• Strategic entry and exit @ -5% & +5% respectively

• Coal India • Dr Reddys Labs

• Hindalco • ICICI Bank

• Idea Cellular • Larsen & Toubro

• Mahindra & Mahindra • Maruti Suzuki

• State Bank of India

*Source: IKUZ (Investor ki Kahani Usiki Zubaani)

Disclaimer: This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement toinvest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for yourinformation and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form.Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees from, anyand all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees free andharmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its affiliates are under noobligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsibleand liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report . MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warrantyof any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on theirown investigations.This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or forany necessary explanation of its contents.MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in thisdocument. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.Disclosure of Interest Statement:Analyst ownership of the stock: NoneGroup/Directors ownership of the stock : Bharti Airtel, Birla Corporation, Cairn India, Coal India,GSK Pharma, Honda MotoCorp, IDFC, IOC, Marico, Nestle India, Oriental Bank, South Indian Bank, State Bank, Tata SteelBroking relationship with company covered: State Bank of IndiaInvestment Banking relationship with company covered: NoneAnalyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directlyor indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for preparation of MOSt research receivecompensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.Regional Disclosures (outside India): This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use wouldbe contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.For U.K. : This report is intended for distribution only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments as described in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005(referred to as "investment professionals"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not investment professionals. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available toinvestment professionals and will be engaged in only with such persons.For U.S. : MOSt is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.) and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934,as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., Motilal Oswal has entered into achaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This documentmust not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in onlywith major institutional investors.The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo and therefore, may

For further details : Call your Relationship Manager

or

Contact us: +91 (022) 3089 6680 SMS: MOSL INFO <Type Your Query> to 575753 Email : [email protected] Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) Member of NSE and BSE

Reg. Office: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai 400 064. Tel: 022 3080 1000. Registration Nos.: NSE (Cash) : INB231041238 ; NSE (F&O) : INF231041238 ;BSE (Cash) : INB011041257 ; BSE(F&O) : INF011041257 ; CDSL : IN-DP-CDSL-09-99 ; NSDL : IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000 ; AMFI :ARN 17397 ; MOSL is a distributor of Mutual Funds and IPOs.*PMS : INP000000670; *PMS &

Mutual funds are offered through Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company (MOAMC) which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Commodities Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (MOCBPL) member of MCX, NCDEX and NSEL. FMCUnique membership code: MCX: MCX/TCM/CORP/0725, NCDEX: NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0033 & NSEL: 13730. Commodities is offered through MOCBPL which is a group company of MOFSL.

In This Issue Key Highlights for the Month€¦ · In its third quarter review in Jan, RBI cut the benchmark Repo rate by 25bps (a much expected move), and also CRR by 25bps, a move

Documents