In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth - World Banksiteresources.worldbank.org/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/Resources/226300... · Bien A. Ganapin National Planning and Policy Staff NEDA DIOC 23 October

Bien A. Ganapin National Planning and Policy Staff

NEDA DIOC

23 October 2012

In Pursuit of

Inclusive

Growth

THE PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011-2016 AND ITS ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Inclusive growth

Growth that reduces poverty, including achievement of Millennium Development Goals

Higher economic growth for the next six years

Growth that generates mass employment

Plan Vision:

35.8 32.2

27.5 27.4 25.3 26.8

26.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

average growth rate for 3 years

Source: Poverty incidence is based on author’s estimates using FIES, various years; GDP growth rates is based on NSCB

(right axis) (left axis)

Toward Inclusive Growth

The Plan focuses on

5 Key Strategies

Boost competitiveness

to generate employment

Improve access to financing

Invest massively in physical

infrastructure

Promote transparent and

responsive governance

Develop human resources through

improved social services

• Stable macroeconomic environment • Ecological integrity • Education, science and technology • Peace process and national security

Good Governance

• Institutionalized accountability

• Promoting a tradition of transparency

• Enhanced citizen’s participation in

governance

• Special governance focus: Mindanao

Priority sectors

o Tourism

o BPO

oHousing

o Logistics

o Shipbuilding

o Agro-industry

Boosting Competitiveness

Invest massively in physical

infrastructure

Key goals for Finance: Improve access to financing and deepen the Financial System

Promote a regionally responsive and inclusive financial system through effective savings generation and institutionalized resource mobilization Develop an enabling environment for long-term savings and investments Strengthen the governance framework of the financial system in line with best practices and standards Establish strong legal framework for financial sector development

Finance Policy

• Ensure access to quality education

• Enhance public health protection through

greater access to government health services

• Expansion of conditional cash transfer program

Develop human resources

Security, Justice and Peace

• Continue to upgrade capabilities to defend

national interests

• Pursue just and lasting peace

• Strengthen Rule of Law

• Advance and protect human rights

• Promote welfare of men and women in the

frontline

Climate Change Adaptation

and Mitigation

• Ensure the conservation and protection of

natural resources

• Improve environmental quality for a

cleaner and healthier environment

• Manage risks and threats from natural

calamities

How have we fared so far? What are the challenges ahead?

Rapid growth

(growth rate, in %, at constant prices)

* Approved by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on June 26, 2012.

Actual 2012

Assumption*

2010 2011 Q1

2012

Q2

2012 Low High

GDP 7.6 3.9 6.3 5.9 5.0 6.0

GNI 8.2 3.2 5.8 5.6 4.4 5.4

Good Governance

• Mandatory budget disclosure of agencies

• Consultative budget preparation process

• Anti-corruption drives in revenue-generating

agencies through RATE, RATS, & RIPS

• Formulation of the Development Roadmap

for Minadanao

• Governance reforms and local and

international recognitions

25%

35%

5%

17%

1% 17%

Economic Services

Social Services

Defense

General Public Services

Net Lending

Debt Service

Develop human resources

Quality Education

• Reduce classroom gap to zero in 2013 (instead of

2015)

• Close textbook and teacher gap by 2012 and 2013,

respectively

• Install support mechanisms for basic education

system

• Align vocational and tertiary education to support

industrial development and job generation agenda

Social Protection

• Cover all indigent households in 4Ps by 2016

• Cover all Q1 and Q2 households (poorest 40% of

population) under universal healthcare by 2016

thereby attaining Health MDGs

Housing Program

• Provide decent affordable housing to informal settlers

2012 2013 Growth

Total Budget (in Php bn) 1,816.0 2,006.0 10.5%

Capital Outlay 18.1% 18.9% 15.7%

Infrastructure and Other Capital Outlays

13.9% 14.8% 17.5%

Budget Share

Proposed 2013 Budget • Infrastructure Development Program o Reducing the High Cost of Doing Business: Energy,

Transport, and Connectivity

Massive investment in

physical infrastructure

Challenge:

A more inclusive growth

Selected Employment Indicators, Philippines

Source: National Statistics Office

Items

2011 2012

Jan Apr July FY Jan Apr July

Labor Force Growth Rate (%) 1.0 3.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.2

Employment Growth Rate (%) 0.8 4.0 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 1.3

Employment Generated (‘000) 292 1,407 869 1,157 1,101 1,021 478

Unemployment Rate (%) 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0

Underemployment Rate (%) 19.4 19.4 19.1 19.3 18.8 19.3 22.7

Challenge:

Risks to Growth

• Struggling global economic recovery

• Intensification of the Euro Area

problem and geopolitical uncertainty

• El Niño phenomenon

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

average growth rate for 3 years poverty incidence

Source: Poverty incidence is based on author’s estimates using FIES, various years; GDP growth rates is based on NSCB

2012

?

(right axis) (left axis)

Toward Inclusive Growth

THANK YOU!