In-line Performance; Margin to Remain under Pressure...Bajaj Auto (BAL) has delivered broadly in-line operating performance in 4QFY19 with its EBIDTA margin contracting by 370bps YoY

REDUCEBajaj AutoAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

4QFY19 Result Update | May 17, 2019

1

Target Price: Rs2,550

CMP* (Rs) 3,040

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (16.1)

Bloomberg Ticker BJAUT IN

Market Cap. (Rs bn) 880

Free Float (%) 50.7

Shares O/S (mn) 289

Quarterly Performance YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%)

Total Volume (units) 1,193,590 1,045,378 14.2 1,259,918 (5.3)

Total Revenue 73,952 67,733 9.2 74,094 (0.2)

Total Expenditure 62,329 54,581 14.2 62,533 (0.3)

EBIDTA 11,623 13,152 (11.6) 11,561 0.5

EBIT 11,014 12,274 (10.3) 10,927 0.8

Profit Before Extra-ord. items & Tax 15,339 15,937 (3.8) 15,591 (1.6)

Profit After Tax 18,759 15,937 17.7 15,591 20.3

Adj. PAT 10,676 10,799 (1.1) 11,019 (3.1)

Adj. EPS (Rs.) 36.91 37.33 (1.1) 38.09 (3.1)

EBIDTA Margin 15.7 19.4 (370) bps 15.6 11 bps

Adj. NPM 14.4 15.9 (151) bps 14.9 (44) bps

Source: Company, RSec Research

In-line Performance; Margin to Remain under Pressure

Bajaj Auto (BAL) has delivered broadly in-line operating performance in 4QFY19 with its EBIDTA margin contracting by 370bps YoY (+11bps QoQ) to 15.7% vs. our estimate of 15.6%. Aided by 14% YoY (-5% QoQ) growth in volume to 1.19mn units, its revenue grew by 9% YoY (flat on QoQ basis) to Rs73.9bn vs. our estimate of Rs71.8bn. ASP declined by 4% YoY, but rose by 5% QoQ led by better product-mix and favourable exchange rate. EBIDTA declined by 12% YoY (+0.5% QoQ) due to lower realisation, while adjusted PAT (Adjusted for extra ordinary gain of Rs3.42bn on account of reversal of contingent duty charges) fell by 1% YoY and 3% QoQ to Rs10.7bn (vs. our estimate of Rs10.4bn). PAT was also benefitted by higher non-operating income and lower tax rate. Higher commodity prices and limited ability to pass on the same led to 293bps YoY rise in RM/Sales to 72.3%, while other expenditure and employee cost remained under control. In view of Management’s preference on market share over margin growth, we expect BAL’s volume to clock 10% CAGR over FY19-FY21E. while margin is expected to fall by ~100bps. Lower export growth, margin pressure, moderation in return ratios and expensive valuation post recent run up justify Downgrade. Therefore, we Downgrade BAL to REDUCE.

Tough Times Ahead; Margin to Remain under PressureWe expect domestic market to witness slowdown owing to higher system inventory and likely lower demand in 1HFY20E. Moreover, we expect the automobile industry to witness down-cycle in FY21E. We also expect exports growth to taper down on high base and lower crude price. Though BAL’s key exports geographies of Middle East and Africa are witnessing decent traction, growth is tapering down on a high base. Moreover, passing on the higher cost inflation due to BS-VI implementation during down-cycle would be rather the biggest challenge for the auto makers, going forward which will drag their operating margins. We expect BAL’s EBIDTA margin to decrease by 100bps to 15.5% over FY19-FY21E.

Outlook & ValuationLooking ahead, we expect BAL to gain further volume and market shares on the back of aggressive pricing and marketing strategy over FY19-FY21. As we have already factored in the management’s strategy , we broadly maintain our estimates for FY20E/FY21E. In view of expensive valuation, post recent price run-up, lower growth in exports, margin pressure and moderation in return ratio, we downgrade our recommendation on the stock to REDUCE from HOLD with unrevised Target Price of Rs2,550, valuing it at 13x FY21E EPS and adding Rs100/share for its stake in KTM. Risk reward is unfavourable at CMP.

Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth

Absolute performance (0.9) 7.6 8.0

Relative to Nifty 2.3 1.2 1.2

Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec-18 Mar-19

Promoter 51.2 49.3

Public 48.8 50.7

Key Financials(Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 302,106 355,447 394,129

EBITDA 49,427 56,903 60,967

EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 16.0 15.5

Adj. Net Profit 44,366 50,537 54,521

EPS (Rs.) 153.4 174.7 188.5

ROE (%) 20.7 20.9 19.9

P/E (x) 19.2 16.8 15.6

Change of Estimates(% change) FY20E FY21E

Net revenues 2.3 (1.0)EBIDTA 2.1 (1.4)Net Profit 4.2 - EPS 4.2 -

1 Year Stock Price Performance

Note: * CMP as on May 17, 2019

Research Analyst: Mitul Shah

Contact: 022 3303 4628

Email: [email protected]

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Bajaj AutoAutomobile | India


2


CMP* (Rs) 3,040



REDUCE

Conference Call – Key Takeaways

f Thrust on Market Share at the Cost of Margin to Continue: The Management

expects company’s ongoing strong momentum in domestic motorcycle segment to

continue in FY20 as well due to new product launches coupled with its own thrust on

market share. BAL looks forward to increase its market share to 24% over the next 2

years from ~20% currently. The Company plans to launch 8-9 new models (majority

would be upgrades) in next one year.

f Good Traction in Export Markets, but Growth to Taper Down: The Management

has guided for a decent growth in exports volume in FY20E. It remains positive on new

markets and expects healthy volume from revival of African markets. However, growth

from these markets would taper down and adding volume from new geographies may

take overall export growth to double-digit, going ahead. Few territories like Middle-

East, Iran, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Latin America etc have been facing turbulence in volume in

recent times, which may drag exports growth.

f Margin to Remain under Pressure despite Price Hike: Though BAL hiked prices

in 3QFY19 and 4QFY19 to pass on higher commodity prices, the hike is not sufficient

to override cost escalation. The Management indicated that higher advertisement

expenses towards building global brand have impacted its margin performance in the

quarter. Going forward, citing weaker domestic volume, tapering of export growth and

competition may remain challenge for any meaningful expansion in margin. Looking

ahead, we expect BAL’s margin to remain under pressure over the next 2 years and fall

by 100bps over FY19-21E.

f Cash & Cash Equivalents: BAL’s Cash & Cash Equivalents stood at Rs163.7bn as of

FY19-end compared to Rs155.4bn as of FY18-end.

Risks to the View f Success of new launches.

f Sharp drop in input prices.

f Strong revival in rural demand.

f Favourable exchange rate.

Exhibit 1: Revised vs. Old estimates

Y/E March (Rs mn) FY20E FY21E

Old New % change Old New % change

Domestic 3,304,948 3,310,768 0.2 3,551,993 3,533,941 (0.5)

Exports 2,329,144 2,281,763 (2.0) 2,534,584 2,491,288 (1.7)

Total Sales (units) 5,634,093 5,592,531 (0.7) 6,086,577 6,025,229 (1.0)

Net revenues 347,450 355,447 2.3 398,280 394,129 (1.0)

EBIDTA 55,714 56,903 2.1 61,846 60,967 (1.4)

EBIDTA margin (%) 16.0 16.0 (3) 15.5 15.5 (6)

Adj. Net Profit 48,495 50,537 4.2 54,522 54,521 -

EPS (Rs) 167.6 174.7 4.2 188.5 188.5 -




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CMP* (Rs) 3,040



REDUCE

Exhibit 2: Result Summary

YE March (Rs. mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) Motorcycles (Units) 610,094 497,587 22.6 644,093 -5.3

3-wheelers (Units) 101,809 122,229 -16.7 90,928 12.0

Domestic 711,903 619,816 14.9 735,021 -3.1

Exports 481,238 425,562 13.1 524,807 -8.3

Total Volume (domestic + exports) (Units) 1,193,590 1,045,378 14.2 1,259,918 -5.3

Net Sales 72,252 66,508 8.6 72,431 -0.2

Other Operating Income 1,700 1,225 38.8 1,663 2.2

Total Revenue 73,952 67,733 9.2 74,094 -0.2

Less:

Net Raw Material consumed 53,450 46,969 13.8 53,972 -1.0

Other Exp. 5,754 4,942 16.4 5,393 6.7

Employee Cost 3,126 2,670 17.1 3,169 -1.4

Total Expenditure 62,329 54,581 14.2 62,533 -0.3

EBIDTA 11,623 13,152 -11.6 11,561 0.5

Less: Depreciation 608 879 -30.8 634 -4.0

EBIT 11,014 12,274 -10.3 10,927 0.8

Less: Interest 3 3 -3.3 36 -91.9

Add: Other income 4,327 3,667 18.0 4,700 -7.9

Profit Before Extra-ordinary and Tax 15,339 15,937 -3.8 15,591 -1.6

Less: Extraordinary Expense (net) -3,420 0 NA 0 NA

Profit Before Tax 18,759 15,937 17.7 15,591 20.3

Less: Total Tax 5,703 5,138 11.0 4,572 24.7

Profit After Tax 13,056 10,799 20.9 11,019 18.5

Adj. Profit After Tax 10,676 10,799 -1.1 11,019 -3.1

Diluted Shares Outstanding (mn) 289 289 289

Reported EPS (Rs.) 45.1 37.3 20.9 38.1 18.5

Adj. EPS (Rs.) 36.9 37.3 -1.1 38.1 -3.1

Cost and Margin Analysis (%) Change in bps

Change in bps

EBIDTA Margin 15.7 19.4 -370 15.6 11

Adj. NPM 14.4 15.9 -151 14.9 -44

Effective Tax Rate 30.4 32.2 -184 29.3 107

Cost Analysis

RM/Net Sales 72.3 69.3 293 72.8 -57

Other Expenses./Net Sales 7.8 7.3 48 7.3 50

Personnel/Net Sales 4.2 3.9 29 4.3 -5

Source: Company, RSec Research; Note: NA - Not Applicable



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CMP* (Rs) 3,040



REDUCE

Exhibit 4: Revenue and EBIDTA Trend Exhibit 5: Domestic Market Share Trend


Exhibit 3: Volume Analysis

Units 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%)

Motorcycles

75 cc to 110 cc 306332 240301 27.5 392377 (21.9)

110 cc to 125 cc 12309 24595 (50.0) 9374 31.3

125 cc to 150 cc 215326 113072 90.4 167394 28.6

150 cc to 200 cc 48342 61612 (21.5) 44635 8.3

200 cc to 250 cc 26004 49922 (47.9) 28562 (9.0)

350 cc to 500 cc 1781 8085 (78.0) 1751 1.7

Total Domestic Motorcycles 610,094 497,587 22.6 644,093 (5.3)

Domestic 3Ws 101,809 122,229 (16.7) 90,928 12.0

Total Domestic Volume 711,903 619,816 14.9 735,021 (3.1)

Exports 481,238 425,562 13.1 524,807 (8.3)

Qute 449 - NA 90 399

Total Sales 1,193,590 1,045,378 14.2 1,259,918 (5.3)

Source: Company, RSec Research; NA: Not Applicable

Volume & Market ShareBAL’s total volume grew by 14% YoY (-5% QoQ) to 11,93,590 units in 4QFY19. Its domestic bike

sales rose by 23% YoY (-5% QoQ) to 6,10,094 units vs. industry decline of 6% YoY. However,

its exports rose by 13% YoY to 4,81,238 units. Its bike exports grew by 9% YoY to 3,91,889

units, while 3W exports rose by 34% YoY to 88,621 units. Its domestic 3W sales fell by 17%

YoY to 1,01,809 units vs. 9% YoY decline in industry volume. 3W contributed 16% to BAL’s total

volume compared to 14.3% in 3QFY19.

BAL’s market share in domestic motorcycle segment rose by 470bps YoY to 20% in 4QFY19,

while it witnessed YoY decline of 540bps to 56.5% in domestic 3W space.

-2.0%

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Total Revenue Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Margin (RHS)

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Motorcycle Three Wheeler



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CMP* (Rs) 3,040



REDUCE

Exhibit 6: Volume Contribution


48 44 50 54 55 56 54 53 48 5547 48 48 52 51 51

5 67

8 8 7 6 66

811 12 8 8 7 9

38 4137 33 33 31 34 36 39

31 35 34 36 32 34 33

9 8 6 6 5 6 6 5 7 6 7 6 8 7 7 7

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Exports 3W Exports 2W Domestic 3W Domestic 2W



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CMP* (Rs) 3,040



REDUCE

Profit & Loss Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net revenue 251,649 302,106 355,447 394,129

Expenditure 203,713 252,679 298,544 333,162

Raw Materials 174,101 218,243 257,699 287,714

Employee Expenses 10,690 12,554 14,186 15,888

Other expenditure 18,922 21,882 26,659 29,560

EBITDA 47,936 49,427 56,903 60,967

Depreciation and amortization expense 3,148 2,657 2,905 3,169

EBIT 44,788 46,770 53,999 57,797

Non-operating income 13,397 16,886 18,753 20,711

Interest including finance charges 13 45 37 50

Adjusted pre-tax profit 58,171 63,612 72,715 78,458

Less: Extraordinary Exp 346 (3,420) - -

Reported pre-tax profit 57,826 67,032 72,715 78,458

Less: taxes 17,145 20,280 22,178 23,938

Reported PAT 40,681 46,752 50,537 54,521

Adjusted PAT 40,924 44,366 50,537 54,521

EPS (Rs), based on wtd avg shares 141.4 153.4 174.7 188.5

Fully diluted shares outstanding (mn) 289 289 289 289

Balance Sheet

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Equity capital 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894

Reserves and surplus 188,145 213,989 243,617 277,230

Total equity 191,039 216,882 246,511 280,124

Deferred tax liability (net) 3,234 5,427 5,427 5,427

Total borrowings 1,221 1,245 1,245 1,245

Current liabilities 42,701 48,472 51,908 57,124

Total liabilities 238,195 272,026 305,091 343,920

Cash and cash equivalents 7,780 9,224 8,185 6,032

Inventory 7,426 9,692 11,451 12,779

Trade receivables 14,919 25,597 24,346 23,756

Other current assets 12,839 18,299 21,300 24,763

Total current assets 42,964 62,812 65,281 67,330

Gross block 44,945 46,436 50,381 55,264

Less: Depreciation and amortization 26,279 28,936 31,841 35,010

Add: capital work-in-process 112 120 675 743

Total fixed assets 18,777 17,620 19,215 20,996

Investments 176,454 191,594 220,594 255,594

of which, liquid investment 164,227 179,367 208,367 243,367

Total assets 238,195 272,026 305,091 343,920



7


CMP* (Rs) 3,040



REDUCE

Cash Flow Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Operating cashflow

Pre-tax income 57,826 67,032 72,715 78,458

Add: depreciation and amortization 3,148 2,657 2,905 3,169

Add: interest expense (net) 13 13 45 37

Less: other adjustments (11,979) - - -

Less: taxes paid (16,851) (20,280) (22,178) (23,938)

Add: working capital changes 10,451 (12,633) (72) 1,016

Total operating cashflow 42,608 36,789 53,413 58,743

Investing cashflow

Capital expenditure (1,833) (1,500) (4,500) (4,950)

Investments (19,361) (15,140) (29,000) (35,000)

Others 2,015 - - -

Total investing cashflow (19,178) (16,640) (33,500) (39,950)

Financing cashflowShare issuances - - - -

Loans - 2,192 - -

Dividend (18,848) (20,908) (20,908) (20,908)

Interest Payment (4) (13) (45) (37)

Less: Others 266 24 - -

Total financing cashflow (18,586) (18,705) (20,953) (20,945)

Net change in cash 4,843 1,444 (1,039) (2,152)Opening cash 2,937 7,780 9,224 8,185

Closing cash 7,780 9,224 8,185 6,032

Key Ratio

Y/E Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Growth Ratios (%)Net revenue 15.6 20.1 17.7 10.9

EBITDA 8.1 3.1 15.1 7.1

Adjusted net profit 6.7 8.4 13.9 7.9

Other Ratios (%)Effective tax rate 29.6 30.3 30.5 30.5

EBITDA margin 19.0 16.4 16.0 15.5

Adjusted net profit margin 16.3 14.7 14.2 13.8

ROCE 29.5 28.7 27.8 24.5

ROE 30.6 29.7 28.6 25.1

Total asset turnover ratio (x) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1

Inventory days 11 12 12 12

Debtor days 22 31 25 22

Creditor days 45 43 42 42

Per share numbers (Rs)Diluted earnings 141.4 153.4 174.7 188.5

Free cash 140.9 122.0 169.1 186.0

Book value 660.2 749.8 852.2 968.4

Valuations (x)P/E 20.8 19.2 16.8 15.6

EV/EBITDA 17.6 17.0 14.8 13.9

P/B 4.5 3.9 3.4 3.0



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CMP* (Rs) 3,040



REDUCE

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Rating GuidesRating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 monthsBUY >10%

HOLD -5% to 10%

REDUCE >-5%

Date Reco CMP TP

05-Apr-19 HOLD 2862 2550

30-Jan-19 HOLD 2500 2550

08 Jan-19 HOLD 2695 2875

26 Oct-18 BUY 2478 3015

23 Jul-18 BUY 2684 3050

21-May-18 BUY 2721 3165

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Rating History

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In-line Performance; Margin to Remain under Pressure...Bajaj Auto (BAL) has delivered broadly in-line operating performance in 4QFY19 with its EBIDTA margin contracting by 370bps YoY

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