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Number 11, July 2006

Published by the Center for Comparative and International Studies (ETH Zurich and University of Zurich)

John Casti on the Rise and Fall of Globalization

On 20 April 2006, ETH Professor and CIS member Lars-Erik Cederman hosted a guest lecture by the distinguished mathe-matician and author John Casti. The lec-ture, which was part of the Trans-Atlan-tic Initiative on Complex Organizations and Networks (TAICON) based at Har-vard University and ETH Zurich, was teleconferenced from Zurich to the Swiss House for Shared Research and Educa-tion (SHARE) in Boston, where Blake LeBaron, an economist from Brandeis University, offered his remarks to Cas-ti’s presentation.

Born and educated in the United States, Casti currently serves as a research fellow at the Wissenstransfer für Wien (WZW) in Vienna. Additionally, he is a faculty

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In this Issue

member of the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico. Specializing in applied system modeling, Casti has conducted research on topics as varied as atmospheric radia-tive transfer and the shift of racial mixes in urban housing distribution. More recently, he has been focusing on the role of bio-logical metaphors for economic and social phenomena. Besides his academic work, Casti has published a series of popularly acclaimed books geared toward a more general read-ing public. With books such as Paradigms Lost, Searching for Certainty, and the Cam-bridge Quintet, Casti awakens the layman’s interest in some of the great questions of science and introduces his readers to the fascinating worlds of mathematics and complexity theory.

Cover Story

John Casti on the Rise and Fall of Globalization ........................................ 1–2

Research at CIS

New Professorship in Political Methodology............................................... 3–4

Launch of Research Program “Asia and Europe: Encounters and Exchanges”.................................................................................................. 4–5

Europe and the Middle East......................................................................... 5-6

Are WTO Disputes over EHS More Prone to Escalation?........................... 6

A Young Generation of Researchers Takes on SNA.................................... 9–10

Club of Madrid Conference......................................................................... 10

Op Ed

Agricultural Policy in New Zealand: Making Global Competitiveness Compatible with Environmental Sustainability........................................... 7–9

Event Highlights

Rethinking National and Ethnic Groups.......................................11–12

Lord Patten Visits Zurich..............................................................12–13

From the African Great Lakes to the Caucasus.............................13

Institutional Design in International River Management..............14

Micheline Calmy-Rey at Uni Zurich.............................................14

Switzerland and the EU.................................................................15–16

Visit by Harvard Scholar Lisa Martin ...........................................16

Lecture Series by ICRC President Jakob Kellenberger..................17

Featured Study Program

New Security Threats, and How to Manage Them........................18

Recent Publications (selection)

Featured Books..............................................................................19

Publications by CIS Staff...............................................................20–21

Predicting Social Phenomena

Casti’s well-attended TAICON lecture was concerned with the emerging field of socioeconomics, also referred to as the “sci-ence of surprise.” He thereby addressed the intriguing question of what causes collec-tive social events: Is it possible to map the occurrence of repeating social phenomena so that it allows us to derive at a specific pat-tern? And if so, would this allow us to make predictions about future human events and actions, such as election outcomes, trends in film and fashion, or the outbreak of a major war? Casti starts from the hypothesis, frequently used by socioeconomists, that all collective social phenomena are governed by the same basic principles, which in turn allow us to

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A Reliable Tool?

Casti’s forecasting mechanism came under scrutiny in the commentary offered by Blake LeBaron. Questioning the very con-cept of “social moods” and its ability to cause social events, LeBaron asks whether Casti is not turning causality on its head. For example, do unpredictable natural catastrophes such as hurricanes and major earthquakes not also affect social moods? Furthermore, LeBaron asks whether the stock market is indeed a perfect indicator for predicting social mood. Considering how difficult it is for economists to make financial market forecasts, how might it then be possible to make predictions about the social mood? Instead, LeBaron posits, we would first need to develop a reliable mechanism to predict the stock market. In his response, Casti explains that he is not developing a scheme to predict specific events. Rather, his hypothesis should be compared to a weather forecast, whereby the forecaster is dealing with necessity, on the one hand, and chance aspects, on the other. Like a meteorologist, a sociometrist knows that some events are more likely to occur than others. It is not particular events that affect social mood, Casti explains, but a changing social mood usually translates into particular types of social action. In other words, the topography of a social environment can make particular types of events more likely to occur. Casti will publish his provocative hypoth-esis on collective social events in a book later this year. The debate spurned by his memorable TAICON presentation, how-ever, is likely to continue.

make predictions about their recurrence. It is the feelings and beliefs of a population as a whole - which Casti refers to as the "social mood" - that cause social events. The social mood of a population, he explains, is not the same as the sum of individual moods, but describes a mass psychology created through social interactions. It is a “herd-ing instinct,” located deep down in our mammal brains, that gives rise to the social mood, which then causes collective social events. In the social domain, Casti posits, “things happen because of the way people believe they are.” However, how can something as subjective as social mood be measured? As a sociom-eter - a scale for measuring the mood of a population -, Casti uses the financial market curve, which is considered a very reliable indicator of a population’s optimism for the future. A high degree of optimism leads to a bull market and thus a rising stock market curve, while a low degree of optimism lets the stock market plummet. As a lesser alter-native to the financial market curve, Casti suggests using annual conception rates: the more optimistic people are about the future, the more children they usually have.

World Events, Globalization, and the ‘Social Mood’

Using examples from 20th century world history, Casti seeks to illustrate his hypoth-esis that a positive social mood (illustrated by a rising stock market curve) usually coin-cides with positive social events and vice versa. For example, the mostly unpleasant events of the period between 1920 – 1945 – such as the Great Depression, World War II, the Holocaust, etc. – were matched with a bearish stock market during the entire period. After World War II, the stock market, and thus the social mood, gradually took off, with the curve becoming even steeper from the mid-1980s and the end of the Cold War onwards. This rise in the social mood in the post-war period has been matched with a series of unifying events in inter-national politics, including the creation of

the United Nations, the European Com-munity and later Union, the North Atlantic Free Trade Association (NAFTA), and the World Trade Organization. Are we going to continue riding on this wave of optimism? No, Casti posits: our long, optimistic period of the past fifty years “is running out of gas.” We have reached a turning point where the social mood is about to roll over back to negative. For Casti, the process of globalization serves as a case in point to illustrate his prediction. He thereby bases the “logic of globalization” on three premises: (1) collective social activity is caused by the social mood; (2) globalization is a world-wide, collective human social activity; (3) consequently, globalization is driven by the worldwide social mood. Globalization, Casti argues, can be charac-terized as a bull market phenomenon - as long as the social mood is increasing, the process of globalization is moving forward. Once the social mood declines, however, the process of globalization will halt and reverse. Casti has already found indications that globalization is in retreat. For example, the number of books on globalization pub-lished in the past thirty years has declined. At the same time, anti-globalization books have started to proliferate in the past cou-ple of years. While at the 1975 World Eco-nomic Summit in Davos globalization was characterized as a “win-win game,” it was argued at the 2006 Summit that globaliza-tion was in fact a “zero-sum game.” For Casti, the increasing prominence of globalization critics indicates friction and a declining social mood. This observation is in line with Casti’s prediction that the hubris of the post-war years is unlikely to continue for much longer. As the social mood is declining, Casti expects that states will reassert their power over transnational corporations, and that supranational struc-tures such as the EU will become consider-ably weakened – thus stifling the process of globalization.

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A year ago, the Institute of Political Sci-ence at the University of Zurich created a new professorship in Political Method-ology. Besides the University of Geneva, the University of Zurich is only the sec-ond university in Switzerland to create a full professorship in this field. Head-ing Zurich’s new professorship is Uni-versity of Michigan-trained Simon Hug, who previously taught at the University of Texas-Austin and served as Director of the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen.

The research focus of the new professorship lies in the comparative analysis of political systems and the effect of institutions - par-ticularly referendums and federalism – on decision-making and conflict resolution. These general questions are being dealt with in the context of research on European integration, ethnic conflicts, and domestic politics. Furthermore, Hug works on meth-odological questions such as the effects of selection mechanisms and measurement accuracy in statistical analyses. As part of the Zurich-based NCCR research program on the Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century, Hug is working with ETH Professors Lars-Erik Cederman and Andreas Wenger, as well as University of Zurich Law Professor Daniel Thürer, on the project “Democratizing Divided Societies in Bad Neighborhoods.” The project seeks to illuminate the effects of political institu-

tions on conflict resolution. In particular, it is interested in the question of how the introduction of democratic institutions in weak states, ethnically divided societies, or states involved in boundary conflicts affects conflict prevention and peace-making efforts in the respective countries. Bringing together theorists and area spe-cialists, the project focuses on four distinct regions: the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Great Lakes Region in Africa.In the same context, the four researchers are studying the way political institutions influ-ence conflict patterns. This research should result in empirically sounder determined effects of particular institutions on societal conflicts. Despite regional particularities, there may be factors that are relevant in all conflict-ridden societies. A case in point is the timing of elections, i.e., the question of whether the premature scheduling of elec-tions may help trigger an increase in vio-lence. So far, there exists no clear answer as to whether elections should be postponed until a viable public sphere has been cre-ated, or whether elections in fact help cre-ate such a public sphere and thus should be scheduled as early as possible. Insights of this research are of considerable policy-relevance, since they might suggest that particular institutions are better suited for addressing and resolving particular types of conflicts.Further, Hug is participating in the EU-funded project “Domestic Structures and European Integration.” In his contribu-tion to the project, Hug is exploring the constitution-building process in the EU using a multi-stage two-level-analysis. He thereby expects inferences between the domestic and European level during all stages of integration because the consti-tution intends to clarify the competencies between both levels. The project thus seeks to examine how member states form their positions in inter-ministerial coordination after the constitutional convent had made a proposal to be discussed by the member states. The researchers’ subsequent analy-sis attempts to explain whether particular

processes used to ratify the new constitu-tion for the EU had influenced the negotia-tion successes of particular member states. Hug and his fellow researchers found that having scheduled a referendum before the end of the negotiations in the constitution led to larger bargaining gains, provided that the voters at the domestic level were rather sceptical toward the new treaty.Another project, carried out by Hug’s senior research fellow Karin Gilland-Lutz, focuses on the policy effects of referendums in a cross-national perspective using the member states of the EU, Switzerland, and Norway as units of analysis. Does the pres-ence of direct-democratic institutions lead to a closer correspondence between public preferences (i.e., of the median voter) and policy outcomes? And, if so, do different types of direct-democratic institutions have different effects in this respect? Gilland-Lutz’s a priori assumption is that direct democracy does make policies more public preference-oriented, as the system makes it easier for citizens to launch a vote on a given issue. To test this assumption, she is using three types of information: measure-ments of policy outcomes; measurements of public opinion; and detailed information on existing direct-democratic institutional provisions. The project is scheduled to be completed by at the end of next year. Furthermore, Hug and his researchers Sarah Bütikofer and Tobias Schulz are working on a project that seeks to illuminate the ideological positioning of politicians and political parties. The project wishes to study in detail the various elements which help explain the voting decisions of MPs. Theoretical models suggest that MPs are considering their electoral chances, pres-sure of party group leaders, and possibly strategic calculations in their decisions. Schulz and Bütikofer thereby test these explanations with a unique dataset cover-ing all votes in the Swiss parliament in two legislatures.This same dataset also forms the basis of a collaboration with Clifford Carrubba (Emory University) and Matthew Gabel (Washington University) wishing to assess

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possible selection biases in roll call votes. The theoretical and empirical models developed in this context will allow the researchers to assess what the roll call records can tell us about parliaments that only sporadically resort to roll call votes. An interesting case in point is the European parliament, where political parties only call for recorded votes in situations where they want to make sure that members of parlia-ment vote in consistence with the party line. This has led some observers to conclude that the loyalty of European MPs first and foremost rests with their party rather with their country of origin – in other words, that ideology overrides nationality. However, Hug suspects that the highly selective roll call votes in the European parliament may give a skewed picture, and that national dif-ferences may still be played out in Euro-pean parliamentary debates but simply do not show up in the record. With this ambitious research agenda, Hug’s new professorship is adding to the already impressive body of research produced at CIS. Researchers and students at CIS will benefit greatly from the new professorship in political methodology, as solid train-ing in the field is becoming increasingly important for young and aspiring academ-ics in political science.

By Elham Manea

The 21st century may well become the “Asian Century” if the current demo-graphic and economic trends persist. Hence, there is an increased interest among Western scholars and the general public to know more about Asian poli-tics, economics, culture, and learning. In line with the region’s growing impor-tance, the University of Zurich, with the generous support of the GEBERT RÜF STIFTUNG, has launched a research program titled “Asia und Europe: Encounters and Exchanges.”

As its title suggests, the research program focuses on the manifold types of interac-tions that have taken, and continue to take, place between Europe and Asia – be they in the areas of culture, religion, and law. It also explores the cultural characteris-tics that set the two continents apart. The research project tries to look at Asia in an all-comprehensive way. Besides the coun-tries of East and Southeast Asia, it also cov-ers the whole area of the Middle East.

Taking Issue with the Public Discourse An interesting aspect of the project is its attempt to reach out to the public and address issues about Asia and the Middle East that are widely debated – though not always well understood – in Europe. A case in point is the question of women’s political rights in the Middle East. CIS-research fel-low Dr. Elham Manea, a member of Prof. Dieter Ruloff’s group, is currently working on this very topic as part of the Asia and Europe research project. Today, women occupy only 3.5% of all seats in the parliaments of Arab countries. In many countries of the Middle East, women suffer from unequal citizenship and lack certain legal entitlements and political rights. Moreover, one in every two Arab women can neither read nor write. Indeed, the first UN Arab Human Development Report, released in 2002, mentioned the

lack of women empowerment as one of the three main causes for the Middle East’s con-tinuing development deficit. Yet, not very many people in the West are aware of the fact that the status of women in Arab societies has become a hotly debated topic in the countries of the Middle East - especially since the Bush administration has designated women’s empowerment in the Middle East as a key U.S. foreign policy objective in the aftermath of September 11, 2001. Obviously, there is a need for improving the situation of women in the Middle East. The main question, however, is why the situa-tion of women is so difficult to improve in these societies. In her study titled “Secu-larism versus Shari’a: Women in Politics in Arabic States: A Comparison between Yemen, Kuwait and Syria,” Manea tries to shed light on this question. Manea’s study will examine women’s political rights in three different Arab states: Yemen – a semi-pluralistic republic with a history of conflict and war; Kuwait – a nominal constitutional monarchy; and Syria – an authoritarian secular republic. The study, which will require field visits to all three countries, will address two key questions: Does the application of Shari’a law hinder the advancement of women’s political rights? And does the application of secularism in a society guarantee politi-cal rights for women? In answering these questions, Manea will pay close attention to the political, social, and religious roots that have led to the sub-ordinate status of women in Middle Eastern societies. Furthermore, she seeks to explore how Islamic countries today try to reconcile Islamic principles with their modern need to advance women’s political rights – for the sake of their own economic and political development, as well as to improve their country’s image and standing abroad.

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Launch of Research Program “Asia and Europe: Encounters and Exchanges”

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Promoting Interdisciplinary Cooperation

Another feature of the Asia and Europe research project is its emphasis on inter-disciplinary cooperation. The project thus draws upon methods and research ques-tions from a variety of academic disci-plines including Ethnology, Geography, History, Indology, Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies, Political Science, Law, Religious Sciences, Sinology, and Theol-ogy. Finally, the project seeks to promote a new generation of researchers drawn from all of the above-mentioned disci-plines. It provides full funding for eleven doctoral and post- doctoral researchers and partial funding for another five. The studies funded by the project cover a wide range of topics including colonialism, identity construction in Thai and Chinese Films, the reception of European Phi-losophy in Asian countries, a comparison between European and Asian legal sys-tems, Chinese economy, law, and society, drug discourse in Iran, and gender roles and relations in the Middle East. After the project’s initial period of three years, the University of Zurich will take over full funding of the project in 2009 as part of its commitment to the University’s research focus “Asia and Europe.”

Project DirectorProf. Dr. Ulrich Rudolph [email protected]

Project-CoordinatorDr. des. Inge Ammering [email protected]

Defining an effective strategy on the Mid-dle East is one of the most urgent and most complex foreign policy challenges facing the EU. Although Europe has manifest interests in this area, it has had great difficulties so far in actively safe-guarding them and becoming a credible and acknowledged actor in the search for peace and stability. The issue of Europe’s role in the Middle East is subject of a new research project by the Center for Security Studies (CSS), which is part of CIS. Two topics are in the foreground of attention. On the one hand, the project assesses the regional approach of the EU towards the Middle East, especially the EU’s efforts at building cooperative secu-rity and encouraging democratic reform. On the other hand, it takes a look at Euro-pean-US relations and the Middle East, which is a particularly sensitive aspect of the EU’s quest for an enhanced regional profile.

The Middle East constitutes the epicenter of the major strategic questions of the early 21st century. Key challenges to European security, such as international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruc-tion, regional conflicts, and state failures are intimately linked with developments in this region. The nexus between stability in the Middle East and security in Europe has become markedly stronger in the wake of 9/11. Moreover, the Middle East (together with Russia) accounts for the biggest sup-ply of energy to the EU. Although Europe’s dependency on oil and gas from these coun-tries has decreased over the past decades, it will not disappear altogether in the fore-seeable future. As events in the Gulf are strongly influencing the price of oil on the global market, Europe’s prosperity depends to a considerable extent on developments in this region.Nevertheless, Europe is struggling with the task of defining a common policy on the Middle East. Because of different his-torical experiences and diverging national policy preferences, the EU member states

frequently find it undesirable or impossible to speak with one voice in this region. Also, the “post-modern” nature of the EU corre-sponds poorly with the Hobbesian world of the Middle East, where war remains a pol-icy option, inter-state relations are highly militarized, and few states are happy with the geopolitical status quo. Finally, the fact that the Middle East has become a primary theater of US security policy raises particu-lar problems for the EU in developing its own distinct position. The first part of the project examines how the EU has approached the Middle East so far and analyzes why the effectiveness of its policy has remained limited. In the mid-1990s, the EU launched the Euro-Mediter-ranean Partnership to structure its relations with its southern neighbors. This so-called Barcelona Process was inspired to a consid-erable extent by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), with the EU seeking to both promote coop-erative security and region-building in the Mediterranean and encourage the non-EU partners to respect human rights and take up political and economic reforms. When the Europeans in 2004 recognized the need to go beyond the Mediterranean and came up with the concept of a “strategic partner-ship with the Mediterranean and the Middle East,” the notions of cooperative security and democracy promotion figured promi-nently again. As the EU is now in the pro-cess of defining a specific policy for the Gulf region (encompassing Iran, Iraq, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and Yemen), the question arises what lessons it could learn from its experience in the Mediterranean and what kind of approach it should apply in the area “East of Jordan.”In a first study on this issue, written during a research period at the EU Institute for Secu-rity Studies (a new research partner of the CSS), Daniel Möckli discusses the difficul-ties the EU has encountered in advancing cooperative security and its reform agenda in the Mediterranean. He then explores why the CSCE approach of linking the two objec-tives in one multi-basket framework has not

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Europe and the Middle East

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worked in this case, and evaluates which aspects of the CSCE model would actually be applicable to the Middle East. Laying out concrete policy options for the EU in the Gulf, he develops the case for a European two-pillar strategy, with the EU conducting dialog on reform within its bilateral rela-tions with the Gulf countries only, while in parallel facilitating issue-specific multi-lateral schemes of cooperation to gradually raise the level of trust among the regional actors and reduce the risk of renewed mili-tary confrontation.The second part of the project concerns the transatlantic dimension of Europe’s role in the Middle East. It will be launched by an international conference on “A Strained Partnership: European-American Relations and the Middle East from Suez to Iraq,”

which will take place in Zurich from 7 to 9 September 2006. Convened by Andreas Wenger, Victor Mauer, and Daniel Möckli, the conference brings together historians and political scientists from both sides of the Atlantic to jointly discuss how European and US threat perceptions, interests, roles, and policy priorities in the Middle East have changed over the last five decades. Transat-lantic cooperation and conflict in the fields of Gulf security and the Arab-Israeli con-flict will be two main subjects of analysis, but other issues like the role of NATO or the strategic position of Turkey between Europe and the Middle East will be dealt with by the invited speakers too. The project will also include an assessment of the scope for European-American coop-eration in the Middle East in the years ahead.

In the context of the 7th International Secu-rity Forum, hosted by the CSS in Zurich from 26 to 28 October 2006, Daniel Möckli will chair a panel on “The Middle East and the Future of Transatlantic Relations” that will bring together four experts from both sides of the Atlantic to discuss the issues of Iran, Iraq, the Middle East Peace Pro-cess, and democracy promotion. The CSS intends to publish the findings of this panel, as well as the proceedings of the September conference.

Contact: Daniel Mö[email protected]

cularly hard to resolve. Research by Tho-mas Bernauer and Thomas Sattler focuses on whether this assumption is in fact true. In addition, they try to solve several metho-dological problems in quantitative research on GATT/WTO trade disputes. Bernauer and Sattler start with the hypothe-sis that trade disputes over inter-jurisdictio-nal differences in environment, health and safety (EHS) regulation are more prone to escalation than disputes over other issues. They base their hypothesis on the premise that gradual concessions among plaintiff and defendant in such disputes, as well as side-payments to domestic constituencies in the defendant country who bear the costs of trade concessions, are more difficult to make in EHS disputes than in non-EHS ones. Bernauer and Sattler develop and test this hypothesis with data from 500 dyadic WTO trade disputes between 1995 and 2003, using selection models. They find that, contrary to the conventional assumption, EHS disputes are less prone to escalation from the con-sultation to the panel/appellate body stage in the WTO’s dispute settlement procedure than other types of disputes. That said, however, Bernauer and Sattler also find that once EHS disputes have reached the panel/appellate body stage, such disputes tend to escalate into compliance disputes more frequently. Currently, Bernauer and Sattler are develo-ping a game-theoretic model to explain the differing escalation dynamics across stages of the dispute settlement process. They are also improving their empirical model to address the problem that the sample of trade disputes in the WTO dispute settlement pro-cedure is not random.

Contact:Thomas [email protected]

Thomas [email protected]

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Are WTO Disputes over Envi-ronment, Health, and Safety Regulation More Prone to Escalation?

As international trade liberalization has moved beyond the reduction of tariffs and quotas and has increasingly targeted non-tariff barriers to trade, a variety of domestic environment, health, and safety regulations have become the subjects of international trade disputes. The most prominent examp-les include European regulations on green biotechnology and growth hormones, and US regulations to protect dolphins and tur-tles. The environmental policy literature and the news media pay a lot of attention to such disputes, assuming that they are parti-

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ment officials, or industry representatives, they all agree that these reforms have led to social, economic, and environmental trans-formations that may have been painful in the short run but highly rewarding in the long one.

Facing Agricultural Reform

Unlike many other industrialized countries, New Zealand decided more than 20 years ago to liberalize its agricultural sector. Within only a couple of years, the country moved from having one of the world’s most heavily subsidised agricultural systems to a fully market-oriented and open agricultural economy.The radical policy change of the 1980s was possible because New Zealand and its farm-ers recognized that they have lost their priv-ileged position in agricultural trade since the end of World War II. Europe used to be heavily dependent on food imports after the war, and New Zealanders were happy the meet the demand with a growing sup-ply of mainly sheep meat and beef exports. New Zealand was sometimes even referred to as the “off-shore farm” of Britain. Yet, the situation changed in the 1960s, when Europeans decided to heavily subsidize their agriculture to reduce their dependence on food imports. Although the use of agricultural subsidies may be a sensible way to achieve particu-lar policy goals, it is politically very costly for any government to cut back on those subsidies once the policy goals have been achieved. As the late economist Rudiger Dornbusch once said, subsidies are like her-pes: “once you have it you will never get rid of it.” European governments faced this very problem in the 1960s and 70s. Due to production-tied subsidies, Europe quickly moved from a production deficit to a huge, unwanted surplus of a wide range of agri-cultural products (which were subsequently dumped on the world market with the help of export subsidies). This led to a decline of world market prices for meat and dairy products, New Zealand’s main agricultural export commodities.

What made the situation even worse for New Zealand was that its main agricul-tural customer, Great Britain, decided to join the European Community (EC) in the 1970s and thus became part of the EC’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). As a consequence, Great Britain started to import more of its agricultural products from other EC member states rather than from New Zealand. New Zealand thus lost its privileged access to the British food market. In response to these new developments, New Zealand farmers turned to their gov-ernment and asked for monetary com-pensation and farm subsidies, which they received. However, this expensive system of subsidies became increasingly unten-able for New Zealand, even though it was the second richest country in the world at the time (after Switzerland). Moreover, in 1980, New Zealand found itself involved in a trade dispute with the United States for unduly subsidising its sheep production. In 1984, New Zealand’s biggest farmer organization, the Federated Farmers, sat together with the new Labour government to discuss reforms in agricultural policy. From these talks resulted no less than a full-scale liberalization of agricultural policy. Certainly, this radical policy change in New Zealand caused hardship and uncer-tainty for many farmers; yet, it also opened up new opportunities. The banks thereby played a crucial role, as those farmers who chose to stay on their land were able to count on the banks’ goodwill and sup-port. In fact, many farmers were heav-ily indebted, and the price of agricultural land would have fallen significantly if large numbers of farmers had gone out of business. The banks, however, had a clear interest in avoiding such a huge loss of value. Consequently, they were willing to restructure the farmers’ debt, and they helped farmers design new business strat-egies that enabled them to diversify and become profitable again. The number of sheep held on New Zealand farms thereby shrunk from around 80 million in the

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What can Swiss farmers learn from New Zealand? Quite a lot, says Philipp Aerni, a research fellow in Prof. Thomas Bernauer’s group specializing in envi-ronmental science and technology pol-icy. In March 2006, Aerni conducted a small expert survey across New Zealand to find out more about how the country is promoting rural development while keeping its agricultural practices envi-ronmentally sustainable. According to Aerni, New Zealand has successfully met the challenge of keeping its “clean and green” image without affecting its global competitiveness in agriculture. It has done so by promoting technological innovation and farmer entrepreneur-ship as essential components of its envi-ronmental policy.

By Philipp Aerni

Agriculture in New Zealand

New Zealand may be a small country population-wise, but it is a big player in international agricultural trade. Its farm-ers are highly competitive on the world market even though they do not receive any sort of government subsidies. Agricul-tural and environmental policies in New Zealand promote bottom-up initiatives by farmers and local entrepreneurs along with public-private partnerships in agricultural research and technological innovation. This has resulted in an agricultural sector that aspires to be competitive and sustain-able without requiring any cumbersome planning bureaucracy. Farmers in New Zealand are autonomous and self-confident. They see the opportu-nities of globalization rather than just the risks. It is this attitude that makes them creative and innovative in the search for and development of sustainable and profit-able agricultural strategies. Today’s success of New Zealand’s farm-ers can be traced back to the country’s thorough agricultural reforms of the early 1980s. No matter if you ask farmers, con-sumers, environmental activists, govern-

Agricultural Policy in New Zealand: Making global competi-tiveness compatible with environmental sustainability

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at the expense of sustainable, small-scale farming. Yet, almost the opposite happened in New Zealand. In fact, farmers have become more empowered and flexible than ever before:

• they have quickly diversified agricul-tural production moving from sheep meat and beef production into dairy, deer, horticulture, viniculture, organic production, and forestry (in accordance with consumer demand and world mar-ket prices).

• they are eager to adopt technological innovations that help them save labor costs, improve environmental sustain-ability, and increase the quantity or qual-ity of their farm products. Often, they become creative innovators themselves by closely collaborating with research-ers.

• they have become actively involved in many local initiatives that improve envi-ronmental sustainability

• they help fund cultural activities, keep up local traditions, and participate in local politics and community events

Today, New Zealand farmers are among the most efficient in the world, and their

efficiency is constantly rising. Since the agricultural reforms of the 1980s, the land area under agricultural use has remained the same, while overall livestock density

1970s to 40 million in 2002, while many new products (e.g. Kiwi fruit, wine, deer meat, etc.) became growing export com-modities.Moreover, New Zealand’s countryside did not “die out” as a result of liberalization. Out of the country’s 80’000 farmers, only 300 decided to make use of the early retire-ment fund offered by the government.

The Fruits of Agricultural Reform

Agricultural liberalization was not a reckless abandoning of farmers but a deliberate effort by the government to enable farmers to organize themselves independently, tailor their production to consumer demand, and take advantage of the new opportunities offered by eco-nomic globalization. The public service was restructured to improve accountabil-ity, reduce costs, and focus on priorities. Many services were delivered on a “user pays” basis. Several government-owned industries and services were restructured to become independent enterprises. Some of them were even sold entirely to the pri-vate sector. At the same time, the government con-tinued to support agricultural research and development. The Crown Research Institutes (CRIs), universities, and research associations carried out gov-ernment-funded research and development and also were encouraged to collaborate with the private sector. In addition, New Zealand farmer associa-tions coordinated and funded business-related activities and short-term research on behalf of their members (financed by a levy on the farm sales) (MAF 2003).Some people might assume that such “neoliberal” reforms would lead to the financial and cultural impover-ishment of the countryside, massive rural-urban migration, and large-scale, highly intensive monoculture farming practices

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has decreased. Simultaneously, productiv-ity and employment in agriculture have increased. Together with its support and processing components, New Zealand’s agricultural sector contributes more than $21 billion per year, which is about 20% of the country’s GDP, and it employs around 114,000 people (measured at the farm gate), making up 7% of total employ-ment in New Zealand (MAF 2003).Most surprisingly, however, New Zea-landers tend to be highly self-critical on the issue of domestic agriculture. In my numerous interviews in Palmerston North, Hamilton, Wellington, Nelson, and Christ-church, I found that stakeholders involved in the agricultural debate are not eager to talk about what has been achieved over the past decade. Instead, they focus on how the remaining environmental prob-lems in New Zealand’s agricultural sector might be addressed – be it through more research, innovation, or policy incentives. There is no passive self-congratulation, but a strong commitment to continuous learning through trial and error.

Lessons for Switzerland

Many people in Switzerland would argue that there is not much to learn from New Zealand as it is a remote island, has a low population density, and is highly dependent on agriculture. Yet, like Swit-zerland, New Zealand is a developed country with a highly diversified econ-omy and a strong com-mitment to environmental sustainability. Unlike Switzerland, New Zealand has decided to promote sustainable agri-culture through investment in research and develop-

ment and institutional reform rather than through the mere preservation of existing structures and agricultural practices. The facts seem to indicate that New Zealand

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has chosen the right path: its agricultural products tend to be tastier than in Switzer-land because consumer preferences, and not the amount of state subsidies, deter-mine farmer revenues. Moreover, farm-ers in New Zealand are not just asked to execute sustainable policy strategies but are designing them themselves for their particular region in coordination with the federal government. All in all, New Zea-land’s agricultural system is less bureau-cratic and wastes fewer resources than heavily state-subsidised ones.In Switzerland, we sometimes think that multi-functionality in agriculture (mean-ing that agriculture is not just about pro-ducing food but providing many other services to society and the environment) can only be guaranteed through govern-ment support. Yet, New Zealand’s entre-preneurial farmers have remained loyal to their communities and are active in per-petuating their local cultures. Moreover, the beauty of the farmed landscape in New Zealand is as impressive as in Switzer-land. In Switzerland, policymakers and farmers with a vested interest in avoiding change often argue that the public stands behind Swiss farmers and wants to ensure that the countryside remains alive and sustainable. Yet, there is hardly any debate as to how effective the Swiss government’s agricul-tural policies actually are. Switzerland continues to have one of the most energy-intensive agricultures in the world, and there is no clear evidence that agro-envi-ronmental measures effectively improve biodiversity in Europe (Whitfield 2006, BAFU 2006). Subsidies (including direct payments to farmers) tend to foster a culture of pas-sive recipients, which is not conducive to entrepreneurship and economic change. As a result, many young people in Swit-zerland leave the countryside, while the private sector stays away from investing in it. At the same time, poor, marginal can-tons in Switzerland try to generate extra revenue by granting generous tax benefits to wealthy residents. Indeed, the example

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of New Zealand’s successful agricultural reform shows that there might be better strategies for rural areas in Switzerland to adopt – a reform of Switzerland’s agricul-tural policy might be a good way to make their regions economically more attrac-tive. Unfortunately, the current strategy of the Swiss Federal Office of Agriculture (BLW), as outlined in Agrarpolitik 2011, still ignores many of the basic lessons that can be learned from the case of New Zea-land.

References:Bundesamt für Umwelt (BAFU) (2006)

Biodiversität in der Schweiz: Vielfalt neben Armut. Medienmitteilung 1. Juni 2006. http://www.biodiversitymonitor-ing.ch/pdfs/MM_0606.pdf

Chamberlin, B. (1996) Farming and Sub-sidies. Debunking the Myths. Euroa Farms Ltd. Pukekohe, New Zealand.

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) (2003) Agriculture and For-estry in New Zealand. An Overview. Wellington, New Zealand.

Whitfield, J. (2006) "Agriculture and environment: How green was my sub-sidy?" Nature 439: 908-909.

On 20 October 2005, CIS members Uwe Serduelt and Chantal Voegeli organized a one-day workshop on the Applications of Social Network Analysis (SNA), which included researchers from different dis-ciplines. The conference, which sought to promote interdisciplinary cooperation, impressively showed the variety of uses of the research technique.

SNA is a method used to analyze how social entities (individuals, organizations, nation states, corporations, etc.) relate to each other. With the help of graphics, statistics, and computer programs, social network analysts can illustrate the complex interre-lationships between their subjects of inves-tigation. While the term “network” is derived from the natural sciences, anthropologists, soci-ologists, and political scientists started to take up and apply the network concept to their subjects of investigation in the 1970s. For example, social scientists today study the role that networks and “social capital” play in the success of organizations.Researchers at the Institute of Political Science at the University of Zurich have made significant contributions to the devel-opment of the field. Professor Hanspeter Kriesi, who wrote his habilitation on social networks based on research completed in the 1970s, pioneered the study of social net-works in Switzerland. Also students of the late Professor Ulrich Klöti, including Uwe Serdült, Chantal Vögeli, Christian Hirschi, and Thomas Widmer have used the method in their research projects. CIS-researcher Chantal Vogeli used SNA to illustrate the stark contrast between the making of Swiss domestic policy as opposed to foreign policy. She thereby used Swiss labour policy in the national and interna-tional context as a case study. In the Swiss direct democratic system, domestic governance structures are charac-terized by the strong cooperation between the state and society. Broadly based inter-est groups are closely linked to political institutions. The procedural structures of Swiss decision-making processes allow

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peak associations and unions to take on a powerful role in pre-parliamentary expert groups and consultation procedures, thus encouraging informal coordination and political bargaining among interest groups and state bureaucracies. Interest group involvement in Swiss for-eign policy-making, in contrast, is almost non-existent – in fact, it happens mostly beyond public notice. To illustrate the differences between Swiss domestic and foreign policy-making struc-tures, Vogeli used a graphical interface (Actor-Process-Event-Scheme, APES),* which links the participating actors with the chronological events of the decision-making process. Thus, she is able to assess the structure and quality of Swiss govern-ment networks. According to Uwe Serdült, SNA is a good method to make political decision-mak-ing more transparent. It can identify the actors, show how they relate to each other, and identify the political conditions that have led to particular decisions. SNA also allows political scientists to study politi-cal processes over time, to compare dif-ferent decision-making processes and, for example, illustrate how various political issues are handled differently – depending, for example, on interest group involvement in a particular issue.

--------------*APES is a web-based software tool for data recording, graphical presentation and estimating quantitative analytical mea-sures, which has been developed by a team of four researchers based at the IPZ and the C2D (University of Geneva). Its fur-ther development is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (for further information on APES, see http://pwi-apes.unizh.ch).

CIS faculty member Prof. Frank Schim-melfennig was invited to join the Club of Madrid’s fourth General Assembly and Annual Conference, which was held in Prague on 10 – 12 November 2005.

The Club of Madrid is an independent organization that seeks to promote and strengthen democratic institutions around the world. Formed by a group of former, democratically elected heads of state and government, the Club of Madrid offers peer to peer counsel, strategic support, and technical advice to leaders and institutions working towards democratic transition and consolidation. Leading members of the Club include former President of Ireland and United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mary Robinson, former President of Czechoslovakia and the Czech Republic Vaclav Havel, as well as former U.S. President Bill Clinton. The Club holds a series of workshops every year on topics like “Democracy and Terrorism,” “Leader-ship in Africa,” and “Reform and Integra-tion in the Balkans and Caucasus.” Under the title “Democracy in the Post Communist World: Unfinished Business. What has been learned and how can it be applied?” the Club of Madrid used it forth Annual Conference to discuss the trajecto-ries and contrasting outcomes of transitions to democracy in the former communist countries of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe, as well as in post-Soviet Central Asia. Three working groups composed of aca-demics, expert practitioners, and Club of Madrid members examined three issues: Democracy and authoritarianism in the post communist world; the political economy of Central and Eastern Europe; and the Euro-pean Union and the promotion of democ-racy in Central and Eastern Europe. Frank Schimmelfennig, who had done extensive research on Western democracy promo-tion in Eastern Europe, participated in the latter working group, which also included political scientists Grigore Pop-Eleches of Princeton University and Jan Zielonka of the University of Oxford.

Schimmelfennig presented a paper on European regional organizations and exter-nal strategies to bring about democratic transformation in Eastern Europe. The adoption of liberal political norms nat-urally entails a loss of power for democra-tizing governments. Undemocratic or less than fully democratic governments thus need high incentives to give up some of their power. Schimmelfennig argues that only the EU and NATO are currently able to offer target governments large enough incentives to reform, by holding out the perspective of full membership (excep-tions are only a small number of highly authoritarian governments with high power costs of adaptation, who did not respond to credible EU and NATO membership incen-tives). Unable to offer the same kinds of economic, political, and military incentives, other European regional organizations (such as the OSCE and the Council of Europe) in contrast have so far largely failed to moti-vate governments to implement effective democratic reforms. Drawing on these observations, Schim-melfennig concludes that “a credible con-ditional perspective of admission” to the EU and NATO is the only way to prompt “authoritarian, nationalist and populist leaders and parties” to promote human rights and democratic institutions in their respective countries. Moreover, he recom-mends that the EU and NATO lend sub-stantial technical and financial support to civil society organizations, democratic movements, and NGOs that can help build a democratic infrastructure from the bot-tom up, prompting their governments to change. At the end of the conference, the Club of Madrid released a set of policy recommen-dations. These recommendations should help further the consolidation of democ-racy in countries that have experienced suc-cessful transitions and facilitate democracy in post-communist countries where transi-tions failed.

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By Marc Helbling

Do ethnic and national groups exist? And if so, to what extent are they relevant in modern life and politics? Those were some of the core questions discussed at a CIS lecture series on “New Approaches in the Study of Ethnicity and Nationhood,” for which three outstanding scholars – Rogers Brubaker, Richard Jenkins, and Ruud Koopmans – have been invited to present their current research.

Research on ethnicity and nationalism has long been dominated by two opposing schools of thought. While the essentialist school argues that ethnic and national group characteristics are fixed traits, the construc-tivists consider ethnicity and nationalism as socially constructed categories. In essence, the two schools are embroiled in a classic “nature versus nurture” argument, whereby the “nurture” side, represented by the con-structivists, has gained the upper ground in the debate. Their argument: groups are contingent and fluent entities, which have to be kept together through human action. However, the scholarly debate is far from resolved. Do constructivists mean to imply that there are no such things as national and ethnic groups? One of the most consistent critics of the “group” concept is Rogers Brubaker, a sociologist at the University of Califor-nia, Los Angeles. The title of his recently published collection of articles – Ethnicity without Groups – sums up his case against the essentialist paradigm of bounded groups rather well. In his work, Brubaker expunges the misuse of this contested term and replaces it with the concept of "groupness," which stands for a variable that may be molded across and within putative groups. He invites us to rethink ethnicity and nationhood in terms of prac-tical categories, cognitive schemas, and discursive frames. For him, ethnicity and nationhood exist through perceptions and interpretations and therefore not as things in the world but rather as perspectives on the world.

In his presentation at CIS, Brubaker illus-trated his thesis with a case study he con-ducted in the ethnically mixed Transyl-vanian town of Cluj. In Cluj, part of the Romanian political elite mobilized against the town’s large Hungarian minority. A groupist perspective would have perceived the situation as a struggle between two dis-tinct ethnic groups. Brubaker’s fieldwork has revealed, however, that the national-ist discourse of the elite has only partially been adopted by the Romanian population and plays a secondary role in their daily lives. This stands in contrast to a neighbor-ing town with a similar ethnic composition, where ethnically motivated agitations by the political elite have led to violent conflicts. Thus, Brubaker concludes that "groupness" is a contingent phenomenon that does not automatically occur among any group of people that shares common cultural charac-teristics. Although Brubaker’s thesis seems convincing to many, some researchers cau-tion that he might have gone too far by abolishing the notion of “group” altogether. To Brubaker’s defense, however, one might point out that he still acknowledges groups as one modality of ethnicity – he mainly challenges the idea of using the concept as an analytical tool. Richard Jenkins, an anthropologist at the University of Sheffield, presented a force-ful rebuttal of Brubaker’s thesis in his guest lecture at CIS. Although Jenkins concedes that whatever reality can be attributed to a group depends on whether the members of a given group also perceive themselves as such, he insists that groups still have a real-ity when people act in terms of their shared imaginings. How violent such a reality can be is best exemplified in Northern Ire-land – Jenkins’ current area of fieldwork. Collectivities are difficult to define, Jen-kins admits, as they are never completely homogeneous and have porous boundaries. Nonetheless, he argues, human societies have always been organized in groups, and, throughout history, people have identified themselves with groups. The consequences of a people’s identification with a particular

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group differ from place to place and must be studied empirically. Jenkins not only disagrees with Brubaker’s theoretical argument, he also proposes dif-ferent solutions to the ethnic violence in Northern Ireland. On the one hand, Bru-baker warns us that when social scientists talk about groups and group rights, they reify “groupness” and lend legitimacy to nationalist or ethnically motivated politi-cal discourses. Jenkins, on the other hand, counters that ethnic identification among Catholics and Protestants is already so pro-found and group boundaries so rigid that the very meaning of group identification would need to be changed to promote reconcilia-tion between the two groups. Indeed, group rights and everything that is related to it, such as quotas and positive discrimination, might harden boundaries and may even be instrumentalized by group members inter-ested in perpetuating ethnic conflict. For Jenkins, it is not the existence of the two ethnic groups per se that causes violent conflict in Northern Ireland, nor does he believe that the mere introduction of group rights, consociational politics, and institu-tionalized modes of coexistence supported by governmental coalitions and minority vetoes will solve the conflict; after all, con-sociationalism is already part of the politi-cal landscape of Northern Ireland. The only way out of the deadlock in Northern Ireland, argues Jenkins, is the recognition by the two hostile communities that their conflict is the product of a shared history of colonialism, settlement, and expropriation. Only through the mutual acceptance of historical respon-sibilities will the two parties be able to tran-scend their grievances of the past. On another theoretical and empirical level, both post- and trans-national theorists assert that nation-states have lost much of their relevance and sovereignty in the immigra-tion and ethnic relation fields due to ”glo-balization”, the emergence of “European citizenship”, and the rise of ”transnational communities”. Criticizing such arguments, Ruud Koopmans, a political scientist at the Free University of Amsterdam, has empiri-

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Rethinking National and Ethnic Groups

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cally demonstrated that nation-states still matter by providing different discursive opportunity structures for the making of political claims. Koopman’s presentation at CIS dealt with the question of how policies of citizenship shape the collective identities and patterns of mobilization among immi-grant minorities in the Netherlands, Britain, France, Germany, and Switzerland. In his research, he found that the various under-standings of nationhood heavily influence not only migration policy but also the way migrants act and see themselves. For example, in countries with few channels of access to the policy-making process, immi-grants are much more oriented towards the politics of their countries of origin than their counterparts in countries with a more open political culture. Moreover, both strong assimilative pressures and an overly tolerant policy toward immigrants can push migrant groups away from the political process in their host country, thus alienat-ing them from the majority society. Nation-states and ethnic groups are defi-nitely real and play an important role in modern politics. But how they matter, how they are defined, and how their cul-tural boundaries are drawn (what Brubaker refers to as “perspectives on the world”) can change over a relatively short period of time, which makes research on ethnicity and nationalism so complex.

On 29 June, CIS co-hosted a lecture by Lord Chris Patten, former Gover-nor of Hong Kong, at the University of Zurich. Lord Patten spoke on “The Rise of Asia: Is it a Threat?“ Drawing from his first-hand experience serving as Bri-tish Minister of Overseas Development in the 1980s and later as Governor of Hong Kong from 1992 to 1997, Patten concluded that the rise of Asia, though not necessarily a threat, will change the world forever.

Both India and China, Patten explains, are going through an impressive period of eco-nomic development and growth. However, the two most populous Asian countries have developed in different ways and will face different challenges in the years to come. Following a “man-made famine” that kil-led about 83 million people, China has succeeded in transforming itself into “the workshop of the world” – the world’s lar-gest exporter and second-largest importer – within only 30 – 40 years. This is an impressive record indeed, Patten explains, but it comes with a price. The fast econo-mic growth led to massive environmental pollution. Furthermore, China is being held back by its political system. Corruption and misgovernment are rampant in China, and the country’s human rights record remains substandard.

For Patten, it is obvious that China’s attempt to hold up the grip on politics while trying to open up its economy will backfire in the medium term. While the Chinese Commu-nist party fears that economic liberaliza-tion will eventually undermine the power of the government, there are, at the same time, political incentives for the party to open up the Chinese economy: the country needs to create enough jobs to ensure social stability. “There are political consequences to economic change,” Patten asserts, and it would be in China’s interest to manage

the process towards political liberaliza-tion without disrup-tions. At the same time, Patten continues to be impressed by India’s successful democratic system, which, according to Patten, saved the country from many disasters. Demo-cracy ensured that post-independence India never suf-fered from a major

famine; it helped ease ethnic and religious tensions in the country; and it kept the soci-alists in the country in check. Patten attributes the rise of India’s eco-nomy to the country’s deregulatory reforms of the early 1990s. India has achieved its 8 percent growth rate thanks to the success of new industries - notably the telecom-munication, software, and pharmaceuti-cal industries - that were able to rise up unhampered from regulatory measures. That said, however, Patten still laments the strong influence of the Communist party in Indian parliamentary politics. Moreover, the large country is held back by its “appal-ling infrastructure,” Patten explains. The country’s substandard transport and power infrastructure has stifled the development of the services sector.

Lord Chris Patten Visits Zurich

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When 2 ½ billion people are rapidly beco-ming better off, is will inevitably have an impact on world politics. “But would it be preferable to have the two countries dirt poor and unstable?” Patten rhetorically asks. Clearly, the winners of China and India’s economic boom in the West are the con-sumers benefiting from cheap products imported from Asia. Further beneficiaries are homeowners in the United States, who were able to take out low-interest mortgages due to the high savings rate in China. On the losing side, however, are no longer just blue collar workers in Western manuf-acturing industries, but increasingly also the white collar middle class. Today, Patten posits, Indian and Chinese workers are both “high skill and low cost.” India and China are not only becoming eco-nomic heavy-weights, they are also gaining increased leverage on the international poli-tical stage. The problem of nuclear prolife-ration, for example, cannot be adequately addressed without the cooperation of India and China, nor can the world’s environmen-tal problems be effectively tackled without having the two countries on board. So is the rise of Asia indeed a threat? “No,” Patten concludes, “but the rise of [China and India] changes the world and raises serious questions of how we manage global government and deal with problems making national borders look rather porous.”

By Judith Vorrath

On 23 June 2006, René Lemarchand, professor emeritus at the University of Florida and a famous Great Lakes expert, held a lecture on “Power-Sha-ring and the Prospects for Peace in the African Great Lakes.”

The lecture was organized by an NCCR Democracy project that deals with democra-tization and conflict in crisis regions. Lemarchand talked about different power-sharing arrangements in the Great Lakes Region, which have led to contrasting outcomes in Burundi, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). What lessons can be learned from the three case studies? For one, Lamarchand exp-lains, choosing the right mode of imple-mentation of the power-sharing framework is crucial. A case in point is the elaborate framework that is now in place in Burundi, as opposed to the very fragile configura-tions in Rwanda in 1993/4 and in the DRC today. For another, the success or failure of a power-sharing arrangement depends on the nature and good-will of the negoti-ating parties. If the parties perceive negoti-ations simply as “a continuation of war by other means” - as Lemarchand, adapting Clausewitz’s famous phrase, put it – out-comes tend to be rather disastrous. As an example, he referred to the negotiations in Rwanda at the beginning of the 1990s, where opportunistic rebel leaders entered into conflict settlement arrangements sim-ply as a way of taking a break from the battlefield or to achieve personal gains. Finally, domestic political conditions can determine the functionality of power-sha-ring arrangements. Taking the DRC as an example, Lemarchand explained how fac-tors such as factional divisions, the inter-ference of neighboring states, and the rela-tive weakness of the central government can all interfere with achieving a stable solution.

These last mentioned factors are also at the centre of the NCCR project on “democra-tizing divided societies in bad neighbour-hoods,” which is directed by CIS-profes-sors Lars-Erik Cederman, Simon Hug, and Andreas Wenger. Three PhD students, a post-doctoral fellow, and several associated members complement the research team. The project aims at exploring the “hori-zontal” spread of democracy to troubled regions characterized by authoritarian regi-mes and frequent conflict. In addition to the African Great Lakes Region, the project focuses on the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Caucasus.All of these regions have a history of violent conflict, ethnically divided societies, and weak statehood. The NCCR project thereby focuses on two issues: the link between the process of democratization and internal conflict, as well as on regional dynamics. In fact, transitions from non-democra-tic to democratic governance in war-torn areas can be especially violent. However, the mechanisms driving this destabilising force of democratization have not been suf-ficiently analyzed. The same holds true for the regional dimension of conflicts. Hence, the project seeks to study conflict-prone regions, and not individual states, as the main units of analysis. It will look at how transnational mechanisms, such as massive refugee flows, trans-boundary arms trade, resource exploitation, and the support of rebel groups by neighboring countries (proxy warfare), can fuel violent conflicts. The NCCR researchers hope to eventually develop more robust and context-sensitive theories of conflict and democratization that can be readily applied to the menti-oned conflict-ridden regions, and hopefully beyond.

From the African Great Lakes to the Caucasus

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For more on the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research on the Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century (NCCR Democracy), which has its main seat at the University of Zurich, please visit http://www.nccr-democracy.unizh.ch

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By Patrick Kuhn

With more than 260 international river basins covering 45% of the Earth’s land surface, and with freshwater being humanity’s most valuable natural resource, questions regarding the man-agement of international river basins are hardly trivial. Ideally, from an ecologi-cal perspective, states sharing common waterways would set up one compre-hensive water management institution regulating all issues pertaining to their shared river basin. This would be in line with the UN-endorsed principle of Inte-grated Water Resources Management (IWRM). However, as much as these comprehensive management institutions would make sense from an environmen-tal point of view, are they also viable eco-nomically? At her presentation at CIS, Dr. Ines Dombrowsky of the Center for Environmental Research in Leipzig-Halle set out to explore this question.

Until recently, the question of establish-ing adequate institutions for the manage-ment of international river basins has been mainly discussed by natural scientists, law-yers, political scientist, and development experts. Dombrowsky tackles the issue from a new angle by looking at the impact of institutions on the management of inter-national waters from an economic perspec-tive. Drawing upon various theories from the field of New Institutional Economics, such as property rights and transaction costs economics, the theory of externali-ties, and non-cooperative game theory, she concludes that in the case of water quality issues – an especially demanding case since asymmetric negative externalities between riparian states are involved –, there is hope for cooperation. However, cooperation will not occur by itself. It is necessary to gener-ate incentives, such as side payments or issue linkages. Moreover, the cooperative outcome must be enforced and stabilized. The theoretical part of her presentation thus ended with several propositions regarding

ways to achieve, enforce, and institutional-ize cooperation between riparian states.Subsequently, Dombrowsky explored whether her proposed institutional features can in fact be found in international treaties on shared river basins. Her main findings can be summarized in three points. First, her analysis shows that only a small num-ber of the 506 analyzed treaties explicitly include side payments or issue linkages. Thus, these theoretically identified mecha-nisms are not often used to achieve coop-eration, which may be due to the fact that formalized side payments or issue linkages may make states look weak when volun-tarily conceding rights to the other party. Second, within these 506 treaties, only 86 institutionalized organizations could be found. This suggests that most treaties on international water resource manage-ment have not been institutionalized by the parties. Third, Dombrowsky’s qualitative analysis of 12 international water resource management organizations showed that most of them are single-issue organizations that merely issue recommendations rather than binding directives to their member states. All in all, Dombrowsky’s empirical findings suggest that IWRM is something that does not automatically happen out of the seemingly common interest of riparian states to cooperate. In the discussion following her presenta-tion, several participants from the social and natural sciences supported her main claim that there seems to be a gap between the ideal scenario of IWRM institutions and the more lose and informal institutional structures that are actually in place. Further research by social scientists is needed to find out what kind of incentives riparian states would need in order to cooperate bet-ter with neighboring states and thus keep river basins clean and functional through a comprehensive regime. After all, nothing less but the future of the world’s freshwater supply is at stake.

No country today can afford to ignore the many threats and problems the world is fac-ing: in a globalized world, even seemingly distant conflicts can have consequences right here at home. Swiss Foreign Secre-tary Micheline Calmy-Rey, who spoke at the University of Zurich at a recruiting ses-sion for the Swiss Foreign Service, force-fully endorsed a “dynamic and active for-eign policy,” which, she emphasized, was nothing but in Switzerland’s own national self-interest. Neutrality did not mean isolation; to help promote international security and peace, Switzerland needed to pursue a foreign policy based on international solidarity and engagement. In order to do so, Switzerland depended on an excellent diplomatic corps made up of representatives of all four lan-guage regions as well as an equal number of men and women.

It is the latter that are still very poorly rep-resented in the Swiss diplomatic corps: Less than 19 percent of Swiss diplomats are female, whereby only 11 out of 116 Swiss ambassadors currently are women. Together with three female diplomats, Calmy-Rey called upon young women who fulfill the necessary job prerequisites to consider applying for a career in the Foreign Service. The four speakers empha-sized that the Swiss Foreign Ministry was a modern employer that offers flexibility for women trying to juggle career and fam-ily: examples are job sharing schemes and the placement assignments that take into account the schooling needs of the diplo-mats’ children.

Institutional Design in International River Management: Is the Concept of Integrated Water Resources Management viable?

Micheline Calmy-Rey at Uni Zurich

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Switzerland occupies a rather unique spot in Europe. With all its neighboring states being part of an ever-expanding European Union, the Swiss prefer to stay out of it. Nevertheless, Switzerland strongly depends on a close relationship with the EU: 80 percent of Swiss imports come from EU member states, while 60 percent of Swiss exports go to the EU. To strengthen its ties with the EU, Swit-zerland has successfully negotiated a series of bilateral treaties, which, among other things, give the country access to the EU market and make Switzerland part of the EU’s free movement of labor policy. But what should be the future of Switzerland’s EU policy? Can Switzer-land continue to sit on the fence and rely on ad hoc bilateral agreements with the EU? Or will it be forced one day to make a decision between full membership and going it alone?

On 15 June 2006, CIS and the Swiss Foreign Policy Associ-ation (SGA) organized a podiums discussion to address Switzerland’s EU dilemma. The discussion was preceded by two posi-tion statements - one by an EU membership opponent and the other by a mem-bership advocate. Full EU membership would do us more harm than good, argued the first keynote speaker Rudolf Ramsauer from econo-miesuisse, the largest umbrella organization rep-resenting the Swiss economy. Switzerland was doing well economically by staying out of the union, he maintained, referring to Switzerland’s estimated economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2006, which is more than most EU member states can expect this year. Moreover, said Ramsauer, the disadvantages of EU membership would be manifold: Switzerland would lose sove-

reignty over its fiscal and currency poli-cies; it would need to restructure its entire tax system; the country’s social and labor policy would need to be adjusted to meet EU standards; and membership would cost the country about 4 billion Swiss francs in total. Besides, Switzerland would not know exactly what it was getting itself into if it joined the union today, considering that the EU keeps changing and lacks a clear vision of what it wants to become. Switzerland’s top priority, according to Ramsauer, should be the maintenance of its competitiveness on the world market. Adjusting to EU law may not always be beneficial in this pursuit. Having success-fully negotiated bilateral agreements with the EU, said Ramsauer, Switzerland had the EU-access it needed, rendering full membership superfluous. Mario Fehr, a Federal Councilor of Switzerland’s Social-democratic Party (SP) and co-author of a policy paper in sup-port of Swiss EU-membership, made his

case in a second keynote address. Counte-ring Ramsauer’s point about Switzerland’s comparatively high economic growth rate this year, he cautioned that, looking at the whole period between 1990 and 2005, Switzerland in fact experienced the lowest economic growth rate in the entire OSCE. Ramsauer’s claim that Switzerland was faring well economically by staying out-

side the EU thus did not hold, Fehr main-tained. By not being part of the EU, said Fehr, Switzerland would have to continue adop-ting new EU rules and regulations in whose creation it had no say. And this ultimately diminished Swiss sovereignty more than if Switzerland was a full EU member. In fact, Fehr contended, EU membership oppo-nents tended to underestimate the influ-ence even as small a state as Switzerland could have in an international body. A case in point were the United Nations, where Switzerland had been quite successful at launching initiatives by building coalitions with like-minded states. The same thing could be achieved within the EU. For Fehr, the legal uncertainties surrounding the bilateral agreements were making the present situation untenable in the medium term. The Swiss people were tired of refe-rendums on EU laws, which they almost had to accept in order to save the bilateral treaties. Fehr concluded that Switzerland

was already so strongly inte-grated in the EU that it was about time for Switzerland to join and contribute to the shaping of the union. At the podiums discussion, which was joined by the economist Silvio Borner, CIS political scientist Frank Schimmelfennig, and the historians Georg Kreis and Christoph Wehrli, there was general agreement that Swit-zerland had so far fared well with its bilateral treaties with the EU. Kreis, however, cau-tioned that EU-policy should

be about more than just economics. After all, the EU was embodying the post-war vision of a free, peaceful, and prosperous Europe. Schimmelfennig agreed that while the “old” Western European member states today were taking a rather pragmatic approach toward the EU, the post-war idealism Kreis referred to was still alive among the new

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Eastern European member states, which had been longing to be part of the “better Europe” throughout the period of the Cold War. Switzerland, Fehr asserted, indeed had something to contribute to the EU’s vision of a peaceful federation of states – a case in point would be Switzerland’s long-time experience with successfully integrating minorities. What, then, does the future hold? For Bor-ner, Swiss EU-membership today would simply be unrealistic, since membership would not be approved by a majority of the Swiss voting public. Only a serious crisis, precipitated, for example, by a break-down of the bilateral treaty regime, could force Switzerland’s hand to make a decisive move toward membership. On the part of the EU, Schimmelfennig believed that the union could live well either with or without Swiss membership. However, the EU did have an interest in making the bilateral tre-aty negotiation process with Switzerland more efficient. At the end of the day, so Schimmelfennig, the loss of democratic self-determination would be Switzerland’s main sacrifice if it joined the union. Indeed, the Swiss system of direct democracy was simply not compa-tible with the EU federalist structure, which did not allow individual member states to opt out of adopted EU laws and policies.The question of whether Switzerland can better preserve its independence and pro-sperity by staying outside or by becoming a full member of the union will continue to occupy Switzerland’s public discourse for a long time to come.

In May 2006, CIS and the CIS-affiliated peer mentoring group politikplus invited Harvard political scientist Lisa Martin to Zurich. The CIS community was able to benefit both from Martin’s research pre-sentation as well as from her experience as the editor of a major scholarly journal in the United States. Together with Klaus Armingeon and Gerald Schneider, she shared some of her experience in acade-mic publishing at a panel discussion on publishing strategies for junior acade-mics, which was chaired by Lars-Erik Cederman (picture).

Currently serving as the Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs at Har-vard University’s Department of Govern-ment, Martin’s areas of teaching and research include the impact of institutions upon states' abilities to make credible commitments, the European Union, U.S. foreign policy, and legislatures in interna-tional cooperation. In addition, she is edi-tor-in-chief of the top-tier peer-reviewed journal International Organization. Martin’s research presentation on “The Uni-ted States and International Commitments” focused on why U.S. presidents choose to enter into international commitments by concluding a treaty or signing an executive agreement. Previous studies have main-tained that treaties are very costly com-mitments for a president as they require a two-third Senate majority for ratification. Thus, these studies have concluded that the greater the Senate opposition a president faces, the more likely it is that he opts for an executive agreement. However, Martin

has found no evidence for this so-called “evasion hypothesis.” After all, executive agreements also require Senate approval for their implementation and thus consti-tute no “free passes” for a president. More-over, according to Martin, the hypothesis relies solely on domestic political factors and neglects the process of international negotiations and thus the influence other states have in shaping U.S. international commitments. Indeed, says Martin, the pattern of treaty use by the United States cannot be understood without consideration of international stra-

tegic interaction. Says Martin, “the choice of agreement form sends a signal to other states about the seriousness with which the US wants to conclude an agreement.” She further explains that “if the president uses executive agreements just to circumvent domestic opposition, other states should question the credibility of these commit-ments.” Through the use of a game-theo-retic signaling model, Martin demonstrates that a hostile Senate does not decrease the chance that an agreement is a treaty. Rather, it may increase this chance by signaling the president’s commitment. In a quantita-tive study of 4955 international agreements signed by the United States between 1980 and 1999, she finds that a model of trea-ties as signals outperforms those models that treat them as just a domestic political tool. Thus, she concludes that interpreting treaties as signals is a far more useful and accurate way of studying U.S. international commitments than seeing their conclusion simply as a domestic political tool.

Visit by Harvard Scholar Lisa Martin

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Many armed conflicts today no longer happen between states or between a government and a domestic rebel group, but increasingly also between different non-state actors across international borders. Examples of such internationa-lized civil wars would be today’s conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. A sad conse-quence of these developments is that the civilian population in these conflict areas is carrying an increasingly large part of the burden of war. As these conflicts are often carried out in civilian areas, civili-ans not only die as innocent bystanders, but sometimes even become direct tar-gets. Moreover, hundreds of thousands of civilians each year die because armed conflicts prevent aid workers and hospi-tal staff to provide basic health care.

These developments have posed new chal-lenges to International Humanitarian Law (IHL), which has been developed to protect persons who are not or are no longer par-ticipating in the hostilities. To learn more about the development of IHL and to dis-cuss the continued relevance of this body of law in the twenty-first century, students at ETH and the University of Zurich this summer had the privilege of attending a seminar by Jakob Kellenberger, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Drawing from his vast experience in huma-nitarian diplomacy, Kellenberger used

recent case studies of ICRC actions to complement the more theoretical parts of the course. For example, he looked more closely at the ICRC’s aid work in Sudan’s Darfour region as well as in Afghanistan and Somalia. At the same time, Kellenberger drew atten-tion to the ICRC’s important role in provi-ding relief after natural catastrophes. As a case study, he examined his organization’s work in the Pakistani administered part of Kashmir after the devastating earth quake this winter. Kellenberger thereby stressed that natural disasters affected the livelihood of about 145 million people in 2005 and led to between 250 – 300’000 deaths. Natural disaster relief thus is an important – though perhaps not the best known – part of the ICRC’s manifold humanitarian activities.

With his lecture series, Kellenberger was able to instill an appreciation for the scope and challenges of the ICRC’s humanitarian work among the almost 200 seminar atten-dees.

Lecture Series by ICRC President Jakob Kellenberger

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Master in Comparative and

International Studies (MACIS)

Academic Year 2007/2008

This research-oriented graduate program explores the many interrelationships between domestic, international, and

transnational political processes in a glo-bal context. Taught by our internationally renowned CIS faculty, the program serves

as an excellent preparation for students interested in pursuing further academic

work at the doctoral level either at CIS or elsewhere.

A limited number of merit-based stipends are available. Application deadline is

1 May 2007.

For more information on MACIS courses, faculty, and application procedures, please

visithttp://www.cis.ethz.ch/education/macis

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“Engineers have a different approach to defense and security issues than political scientists: they focus on the efficiency of a given defense system to neutralize attacks. In contrast, political scientists look at the long-term impact of armed conflicts, including effects on civilians and the region as a whole.” So says Dominik Knill, a defense industry engineer at Oerlikon Contraves and a participant in the Master of Advanced Studies program in Security Policy and Crisis Management at ETH Zurich (MAS-SPCM).

Founded in 2005 as a joint initiative of CIS Security Studies professor Andreas Wenger, the Swiss Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sports, and the Swiss Armed Forces College, the MAS program seeks to provide senior executives with a solid understanding of today’s diverse security risks and threats, as well as the methodological tools to assess and manage them. The MAS-SPCM – the only program of this kind in Europe – starts from the premise that senior executives in the corporate sector, public administration, and the security and defense policy sector can no longer afford to ignore the constantly evolving spectrum of security risks in a globalized world. The part-time degree program, tailored to the needs of senior executives wor-king full-time, is stretched over a period of 18 months. The program consists of 16 weeks of classroom instruction struc-tured over six blocks, each lasting two to three weeks. In addition, students are able to develop expertise on a topic of their own choosing in their Master’s thesis project. “A unique feature of the program is the diversity in background of the student body, which includes civil servants, people from the private industry, as well as members of the army,” says Wenger, who serves as the delegate for the MAS-SPCM. The breadth and flexibility of

the program allows each participant to apply the new insights gained into the complexity of modern security threats to their own professional purposes. For example, having a better under-standing of the nature and dynamics of modern conflicts helps defense industry expert Knill in developing new defense equipment. “Having a broader under-standing of today’s conflicts allows us better to anticipate new threats and thus meet the new defense needs of states and UN peace support missions.” Lucas Caduff, a colonel in the Swiss armed forces and one of six career offi-cers sent to the MAS program by the Swiss military, emphasizes the need of the Swiss armed forces to adapt to new threats such as terrorism and fundamen-talism. Says Caduff, “The course helps me to think more broadly about how the Swiss military might need to be re-struc-tured.” In his thesis, Caduff will address the role of military leaders in peace sup-port missions. He will look at the new set of skills, such as the ability to com-municate effectively with civilians, that commanders of peace support missions need to acquire to successfully complete their missions. So-called “new” threats also occupy MAS-participant Martin Lerch, a district governor in the canton of Berne and a vice-commander of the Swiss military’s territory region I (Western part of Swit-zerland, including Berne). In both his civilian and military capacity, Lerch is increasingly confronted with the conse-quences of climate change. In August 2005, for example, unusually heavy rain-fall in the Swiss Alps led to severe floo-ding in the Berne region, causing damage worth billions of Swiss Francs. “If these types of events happen more frequently in the years to come due to changes in the global climate,” explains Lerch, “it will cause severe strain on my region.” As part of his MAS degree, Lerch is working on a project that seeks to assess the risks and possible impacts of these new envi-

ronmental threats and to come up with suggestions for how these new threats can be managed in the future. Like governments, also the private industry is confronted with security risks that call for new preventive measures. Marcus Wuest, a mathematician by trai-ning who works for the Deutsche Bank (DB) in Business Continuity Manage-ment, decided to enroll in the program to learn more about the potential threats – including physical and cyber attacks – that may affect DB branches in the years to come. In his thesis, he seeks to analyze to what extent resilience can be a competitive advantage. “The complexity of today’s security threats increasingly requires people from different sectors of society – such as the police, the military, and the pri-vate industry – to work closely toge-ther,” says Wenger. Further, he adds, “In our classroom, we provide a trai-ning ground for senior executives from different walks of life to work together on security issues. It is a microcosm of the environment they will increasingly encounter when addressing security issues in their own professional capa-city.” Building bridges between the public and the private sector is a key innova-tive feature of the program. The life insurance company Swiss Life and the DB – both co-sponsors of the program – benefit from information exchanges with leading scholars on the latest secu-rity policy and crisis management trends and developments. As MAS-SPCM program coordina-tor Michel Hess puts it: “One of the program’s key learning objectives is to examine the extent to which innovative business management instruments and civilian and military leadership tech-niques can be applied towards more effective coping strategies to deal with new security risks.”

New Security Threats, and How to Manage Them

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Featured Books (selection)

Wenger, Andreas, Nuenlist, Christian; Locher, Anna (eds.). Transforming NATO in the Cold War: Challenges Beyond Deter-rence in the 1960s. London: Routledge, 2006 (CSS Studies in Security and Interna-tional Relations, edited by Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer) (forthcoming)

The result of a gathering of leading Cold War historians from both sides of the Atlantic, this book is the first compre-hensive history of NATO in the 1960s, based on the systematic use of multina-tional archival evidence. It shows in great detail how the transformation of NATO since 1991 has opened up new perspec-tives on the alliance‘s evolution during the Cold War. Viewed in retrospect, the 1960s were instrumental to the strengthening of NATO’s political clout, which proved to be decisive in the Cold War even more so than NATO’s defence and deterrence capa-bilities. Contributions to the book high-light the importance of NATO’s ability to generate ‘soft power’, the scope and limits of alliance consultation, the important, if controversial, role of common transatlantic values, and the growing influence of small allies. NATO’s survival in the crucial 1960s provides valuable lessons for the current bargaining on the purpose and cohesion of the alliance.

Zimmermann, Doron; Wenger, Andreas (eds.). How States Fight Terrorism: Policy Dynamics in the West. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006 (forthcoming)

As national governments struggle to cope with the complex threat of mass-casualty terrorist attacks, there is an ongoing debate about the best approaches to counterterror-ism policy. The book explores the dynamics of counterterrorism policy development in Europe and North America. A series of case studies examine security concerns, politi-cal debates and policy responses, and mili-tary countermeasures at both the national

and the international level, while the need for integrated approaches is emphasized throughout. Not least, the book provides new insights into the tension between effi-ciency and legitimacy as one of the core dilemmas in counterterrorism policy.

Deighton, Anne (ed.), with Mauer, Victor. Securing Europe? Implementing the Euro-pean Security Strategy. Zurich: Zurcher Beiträge zur Sicherheitspolitik 77, 2006.

This book assesses the substantive impact of the European Security Strategy (ESS) agreed by the Council of the European Union in December 2003. It brings together academics, think-tank analysts, and policy-makers, and is based around two themes. The first theme relates to the policy pri-orities of the EU, and the second to its effectiveness, and the construction and implementation of its foreign and security policies. Part One, ‘European Security in Practice’, examines the setting of Union foreign policy over time, to explain why it is structured in the way that it is, and why it is so complicated. Part Two looks at ‘The European Union: a Multilateral Actor’. The last part of the book, ‘And Now?’, contains three essays by experienced practitioner-commentators.

Abele-Wigert Isabelle; Dunn, Myriam. International CIIP Handbook 2006, Vol. I: An Inventory An Inventory of 20 National and 6 International Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Policies. Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer (eds.), Zurich: Center for Security Studies, 2006.

Dunn, Myriam; Mauer, Victor (eds.). Inter-national CIIP Handbook 2006, Vol. II: Ana-lyzing Issues, Challenges, and Prospects.Zurich: Center for Security Studies, 2006.

In order to protect vital digital assets in the most effective way possible, policy-makers and infrastructure owners and operators require a systematic knowledge of the workings of their critical informa-tion infrastructures (CII). Many countries

have therefore started projects and studies within the past few years to better under-stand the vulnerabilities of and threats to CII and have drafted possible solutions for their protection. The International Criti-cal Information Infrastructure Protection (CIIP) Handbook focuses on aspects of CIIP related to security policy and method-ology. Vol I. of the third edition (2006) cov-ers protection policies in twenty countries and six international organizations. Vol II. contains an in-depth analysis of key issues and major future challenges for the CIIP community.

König, Thomas; Hug, Simon (eds). Policy-making Processes and the European Con-stitution: A Comparative Study of Member States and Accession Countries. London: Routledge, 2006 (forthcoming)

This book presents new data documenting and analyzing the different positions taken by European governments in the develop-ment of the European Constitution. Understanding how constitutional decisions are taken in the EU is of great societal and scientific relevance. This volume exam-ines how these decisions have substantial effects on the sovereignty of nation states and on the lives of citizens, independent of the ratification of a constitution. Few efforts have been made to document con-stitution building in a systematic and com-parative manner, including the different steps and stages of this process. This book examines European Constitution-building by tracing the two-level policy formation process from the draft proposal of the Euro-pean Convention until the Intergovernmen-tal Conference, which finally adopted the document on the Constitution in June 2004. Following a tight comparative framework, it sheds light on reactions to the proposed constitution in the domestic arena of all the actors involved. The volume includes a chapter on each of the original ten member states and the fifteen accession states, plus chapters on the European Commission and European Parliament.

Recent Publications

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Publications by CIS-Staff

Comparative Politics

Häusermann, Silja. "Changing coalitions in social policy reforms: the politics of new social needs and demands." JESP/ESPAnet Doctoral Researcher Prize Article, Journal of European Social Policy 16(1), 2006, 5-21.

Kriesi, Hanspeter; Grande, Edgar; Lachat, Romain; Dolezal, Martin; Bornschier, Simon; Frey, Tim. ”Globalization and the transformation of the national political space: six European countries compared.” European Journal of Political Research, 2006 (forthcoming).

Kriesi, Hanspeter; Tresch, Anke; Jochum, Margit. ”Going Public in the European Union: Action Repertoires of Western European Collective Political Actors.” Comparative Political Studies 21:3, 2006, 1-26.

Kriesi, Hanspeter. “Institutional filters and path dependency: the impact of European-ization on Swiss business associations.” In Governing Interests: Business associa-tions facing internationalization. Wolfgang Streeck, Jürgen R. Grote, Volker Schneider and Jelle Visser (eds). London: Routledge, 2006, 49-67.

Kriesi, Hanspeter; Adam, Silke; Jochum, Margit. “Comparative analysis of policy networks in Western Europe.” Journal of European Public Policy 13 (3), 2006, 341-361.

Kriesi, Hanspeter. “Regards croisés sur l’extrême droite en Europe: Introduction.“ Revue Internationale de Politique Com-parée 12 (4), 2006, 407-413.

Kriesi, Hanspeter. “Commentary.“ In Dia-logues on Migration Policy. Marco Giugni

and Florence Passy (eds). Lanham: Lex-ington Books, 2006, 215-222.

European Politics

Leuffen, Dirk; Luitwieler, Sander. “Domesticated Wolves? Length of Mem-bership, State Size and Preferences at the European Convention.” In European Research Reloaded: Cooperation and Integration among Europeanized States. Ron Holzhacker and Markus Haverland (eds), Dortrecht: Kluwer, 2006.

Lerch, Marika; Schwellnus, Guido. “Nor-mative by Nature? The Role of Coherence in Justifying the EU’s External Human Rights Policy.” Journal of European Pub-lic Policy Special Issue “What kind of Power? European foreign policy in per-spective” 13:2, 2006, 304-321.

Schwellnus, Guido. “Looking Back at Ten Years of EU Minority Conditional-ity vis-à-vis Central and Eastern European Candidate States.” European Yearbook of Minority Issues Vol 4 (2004/05), 2006, 321-340.

Schwellnus, Guido. “Double Standards? Minority Protection as a Condition for Membership.” In Questioning Enlarge-ment: The EU in Search of Identity. Helene Sjursen (ed.), London: Routledge, 2006, 186-200.

International Political Economy

Aerni, Philipp; Bernauer, Thomas. “Stake-holder Perceptions of GMOs in the Philip-pines, Mexico, and South Africa and the Global Competition for Public Trust.” World Development 34 (3), 2006, 557-575.

Bernauer, Thomas; Sattler, Thomas. “Sind WTO-Dispute im Umwelt- und Verbrauch-erschutzbereich eskalationsträchtiger?” Zeitschrift für Internationale Beziehungen

13 (1), 2006, 5-38.

Bernauer, Thomas; Koubi, Vally: “On the Interconnectedness of Regulatory Policy and Markets: Insights From Banking.” British Journal of Political Science 36 (3), 2006, 509-525.

Bernauer, Thomas; Caduff, Ladina. “Man-aging Risk and Regulation in European Food Safety Governance.” Review of Pol-icy Research 23 (1), 2006, 153-168.

International Relations

Lehmkuhl, Dirk. “Some Promises and Pitfalls of Europeanization Research.” In Europeanization: New Research Agendas. Graziano, Paolo; Vink, Maarten (eds.), Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006.

Lehmkuhl, Dirk. “Resolving Transational Disputes: Commercial Arbitration and the Multiple Providers of Governance Ser-vices.” In New Modes of Governance in the Global System: Exploring Publicness, Delegation and Inclusiveness. König-Archibugi , Mathias; Zürn, Michael (eds.), Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006, 101-124.

Political Methodology

Hug, Simon. "Endogeneity and Selection Bias in Comparative Research" APSA-CP Newsletter 17(1), 2006, 14-17.

Hug, Simon; König, Thomas. "Divided Government and the Ratification of the Amsterday Treaty." In Democratic For-eign Policy Making: Problems of Divided Government and International Coopera-tion. Robert Pahre (ed.), Palgrave, 2006 (forthcoming).

Christin, Thomas. "Les attitudes envers l’intégration européenne dans les nou-veaux Etats membres et les pays candidats: diversité et stabilisation des opinions pub-

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liques." In La vie démocratique de l'Union européenne. Céline Belot et Bruno Cautres (eds), Paris : la documentation française, 2006 (forthcoming).

Security Studies

Bonzi, Rea. “NGOs in conflict prevention: experiences from the water sector in Ethio-pia.” Development in Practice 16(2), 2006, 201-208.

Dunn, Myriam; Mauer, Victor. ”Diskur-sanalyse: Die Entstehung der Nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie der USA.“ In Meth-oden der sicherheitspolitischen Analyse. Eine Einführung. Alexander Siedschlag (ed.), Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwis-senschaften, 2006, 189-217.

Friesendorf, Cornelius. “Squeezing the Balloon? U.S. Air Interdiction and the Restructuring of the South American Cocaine Industry in the 1990s.” Crime, Law & Social Change 44(1), 2005, 35-78.

Friesendorf, Cornelius. ”Drogen, Krieg und Drogenkrieg: Die USA und Kolumb-ien im aussichtslosen Kampf?“ WeltTrends 13(49), 2005, 47-59.

Habegger, Beat. “Democratic Control of the OSCE – The Role of the Parliamentary Assembly.” Helsinki Monitor 17(2), 2006, 132-142.

Locher, Anna. “A Crisis Foretold: NATO and France, 1963-66.” In Transforming NATO in the Cold War: Challenges Beyond Deterrence in the 1960s. Andreas Wenger, Christian Nuenlist and Anna Locher (eds.), London: Routledge, 2006 (CSS Studies in Security and International Relations, edited by Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer) (forthcoming).

Mason, Simon; Muller, Adrian. “Trans-forming Environmental and Natural Resource Use Conflicts.” In The Econom-ics of Global Environmental Change, Inter-

national Cooperation for Sustainability. Mario Cogoy and Karl W. Steininger (eds.), Cheltenham, UK/Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar, 2006.

Mauer, Victor. ”German Counter-Terror-ism Policy.” In How States Fight Terror-ism: Policy Dynamics in the West. Doron Zimmermann and Andreas Wenger (eds.), Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006 (forth-coming).

Nuenlist, Christian. “Into the 1960s: NATO’s Role in East-West Relations, 1958-63.” In Transforming NATO in the Cold War: Challenges Beyond Deterrence in the 1960s. Andreas Wenger, Christian Nuenlist and Anna Locher (eds.), London: Routledge, 2006 (CSS Studies in Secu-rity and International Relations, edited by Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer) (forth-coming).

Trachsler, Daniel. ”Max Petitpierre - Möglichkeiten und Grenzen einer poli-tischen Biographie.“ In Relations interna-tionales et affaires étrangères suisses après 1945. Hans Ulrich Jost, Monique Ceni and Matthieu Leimgruber (eds.), Lausanne: Éditions Antipodes, 2006, 183-194.

Wenger, Andreas. “NATO's Transforma-tion in the 1960s and the Ensuing Politi-cal Order in Europe.” In Transforming NATO in the Cold War: Challenges Beyond Deterrence in the 1960s. Andreas Wenger, Christian Nuenlist and Anna Locher (eds.), London: Routledge, 2006 (CSS Studies in Security and International Relations, edited by Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer) (forthcoming).

Wenger, Andreas; Mauer, Victor (eds.). Bulletin 2006 zur Schweizerischen Sicher-heitspolitik. Zurich: Center for Security Studies, 2006. Online: http://www.css.ethz.ch/publica-tions/bulletin

Zimmermann, Doron. “The European

Union and Post-9/11 Counterterrorism: A Reappraisal.” Studies in Conflict and Ter-rorism 29(2), 2006, 123-145.

Swiss Politics and Policy Analysis

Beywl, Wolfgang; Widmer, Thomas. “Die 'Standards' im Vergleich mit weit-eren Regelwerken zur Qualität fachlicher Leistungserstellung.” In Joint Committee on Standards for Educational Evaluation (ed.), Handbuch der Evaluationsstandards, 3. Auflage, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozi-alwissenschaften, 2006, 263-299.

Bühlmann, Marc; Nicolet, Sarah; Selb, Peter (eds.). Selects-Swiss Electoral Stud-ies. Special Issue of the Swiss Political Sci-ence Review. Zürich: Rüegger, 2006.

Klöti, Ulrich; Milic, Thomas; Sidler, Andreas. "Der Abstimmungskampf zur neuen Kantonsverfassung." In Materialien zur Zürcher Verfassungsreform (8) Die Ent-stehung der neuen Zürcher Kantonsverfas-sung. Leo Lorenzo Fosco, Tobias Jaag und Martin Notter (eds.), Zürich: Schulthess, 2006.

Perret, Virgile; Giraud, Olivier; Helbling, Marc; Battaglini, Monika. Les Cantons suisses face au Chômage. Fédéralisme et Politiques de l’Emploi. Paris : L’Harmattan, 2006 (forthcoming).

Widmer, Thomas. “Evaluationsstandards in Europa.” In Joint Committee on Stan-dards for Educational Evaluation (ed.), Handbuch der Evaluationsstandards. 3. Auflage Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozial-wissenschaften, 2006, 301-312.

Widmer, Thomas; Beywl, Wolfgang. “Die Übertragbarkeit der Evaluationsstandards auf unterschiedliche Anwendungsfelder.” In Joint Committee on Standards for Edu-cational Evaluation (ed.), Handbuch der Evaluationsstandards. 3. Auflage Wies-baden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2006, 247-261.

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