Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems E. S. EUSKIRCHEN *, A. D. McGUIRE w , D. W. KICKLIGHTER z, Q. ZHUANG§, J. S. CLEIN *, R. J. DARGAVILLE } , D. G. DYE k, J. S. KIMBALL **, K. C. McDONALD ww , J. M. MELILLO z, V. E. ROMANOVSKY zz and N. V. SMITH§§ *Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA, wUS Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA, zThe Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA, §Departments of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA, }CLIMPACT, Universite ´ Pierre et Marie Curie, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France, kFrontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, **Flathead Lake Biological Station, Division of Biological Sciences, The University of Montana, Polson, MT 59860, USA, wwJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA, zzGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA, §§Geological and Planetary Sciences and Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA Abstract In terrestrial high-latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover, permafrost, and soil freeze–thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications may result in temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO 2 . We use the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which simulates the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen and water dynamics, to explore these issues over the years 1960–2100 in extratropical regions (30–901N). Our model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100. Decreases in snow cover agree well with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion satellite observations collected between the years 1972 and 2000, with Pearson rank correlation coefficients between 0.58 and 0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by approximately 2–4 days from 1988 to 2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5 and 8 days earlier. In both, the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in growing season length, we found a reduction in soil C and increases in vegetation C, with greatest losses of soil C occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net C uptake, indicating that prediction of terrestrial C dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large-scale models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes. Keywords: carbon sequestration, climate change, growing season, permafrost, productivity, respiration, snow cover, terrestrial ecosystem model Received 13 July 2005; revised version received 28 September 2005; accepted 7 October 2005 Correspondence: E. S. Euskirchen, tel. 907 474 1958, e-mail: [email protected]Global Change Biology (2006) 12, 731–750, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01113.x r 2006 The Authors Journal compilation r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 731
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Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamicson growing season length, productivity, and carbonsequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems
E . S . E U S K I R C H E N *, A . D . M c G U I R E w , D . W. K I C K L I G H T E R z, Q . Z H U A N G § ,
J . S . C L E I N *, R . J . D A R G AV I L L E } , D . G . D Y E k, J . S . K I M B A L L **, K . C . M c D O N A L D w w ,
J . M . M E L I L L O z, V. E . R O M A N O V S K Y zz and N . V. S M I T H § §
*Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA, wUS Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative
Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA, zThe Ecosystems Center, Marine
Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA, §Departments of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Agronomy, Purdue
University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA, }CLIMPACT, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France,
kFrontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, **Flathead
Lake Biological Station, Division of Biological Sciences, The University of Montana, Polson, MT 59860, USA, wwJet Propulsion
Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA, zzGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA, §§Geological and Planetary Sciences and Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute
of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
Abstract
In terrestrial high-latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover,
permafrost, and soil freeze–thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications
may result in temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial
productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to
sequester atmospheric CO2. We use the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which simulates
the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen and water dynamics,
to explore these issues over the years 1960–2100 in extratropical regions (30–901N). Our
model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100.
Decreases in snow cover agree well with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
tion satellite observations collected between the years 1972 and 2000, with Pearson rank
correlation coefficients between 0.58 and 0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards
an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by
approximately 2–4 days from 1988 to 2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a
slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5
and 8 days earlier. In both, the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze
in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due
primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed
the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases
in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of
snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in
growing season length, we found a reduction in soil C and increases in vegetation C, with
greatest losses of soil C occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also
suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in
snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net C uptake, indicating that
prediction of terrestrial C dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large-scale
models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes.
Fig. 6 Area-weighted anomalies of growing season length vs. anomalies in net primary productivity (NPP; a,b), heterotrophicrespiration (Rh; c,d), net ecosystem productivity (NEP; e,f), soil carbon (Soil C; g,h), and vegetation carbon (Vegetation C; i,j) acrossthe MLS-Apr, MLS-May, and MLS-Jun snow regions. The anomalies of the fluxes (NPP, Rh, and NEP) are given for each year, while theanomalies of the pools are given for each time period (e.g. 40 years for the retrospective simulation and 100 years for the prognosticsimulation). Lines in each graph represent the linear least-squares regression, with [a] 5 slope, [b] 5 intercept, [R2] 5 coefficient ofdetermination, [p] 5 P-value. The trend in the anomaly of growing season length vs. the anomaly of gross primary productivity isgraphically similar to that of NPP, but with different regression coefficients ([a] 5 18.2; [b] 5 0.7; R2 5 0.28; Po0.001 for the S2 simulation;and [a] 5 37.1; [b] 5�11.6; R2 5 0.89; Po0.0001 for the prognostic simulation).
r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 12, 731–750
H I G H - L A T I T U D E C L I M AT E C H A N G E I N D I C A T O R S 745
simulations were suited for answering the three ques-
tions that we posed, (ii) how our results compare more
generally to other studies that have examined these
dynamics, and (iii) the potential importance of shifts
in vegetation in relation to the findings from our study.
Overall evaluation of model simulations
Overall, the use of the TEM and the associated input
data sets were an appropriate means by which to
answer the three questions that we posed. Our analyses
benefit from the explicit consideration of soil thermal
dynamics in TEM. These dynamics influence the sea-
sonality of C exchange in high-latitude ecosystems via
the effects of freeze–thaw dynamics on C uptake and
decomposition (Zhuang et al., 2003). Future analyses
based on TEM could benefit from explicitly considering
the temperature control over heterotrophic respiration
as it qualitatively changes across the freeze–thaw
boundary (Michaelson & Ping, 2003), although empiri-
cal studies of this nature are still limited and the thresh-
old is not yet determined.
While there are noticeable effects on productivity
when changes in land-use are taken into account in
the 30–601N region, slight changes in agricultural land
use in the 60–901N region have a negligible effect on C
storage at these latitudes in our simulations (Zhuang
et al., 2003). This finding suggests that in high latitudes
enhanced C uptake in recent decades is due in large
part to changes in soil thermal dynamics. Consequently,
although we did not take into account changes in land-
use in this study, we believe that in high-latitude
regions, such changes would have had negligible effects
on our findings.
Although there are other future global warming sce-
narios that might elicit a different response than the one
prescribed in our study, we chose the ‘reference scenar-
io’ from the IGSM because it lay in between ‘high end’
and ‘low end’ scenarios, thereby providing an estimate
of ‘average’ future climate change (Webster et al., 2003).
In future studies, it may also prove beneficial to perform
analyses based on the long-term greenhouse gas emis-
sion scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001). Nevertheless,
1960
1970
1980
1990
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hig
h la
titu
de
reg
ion
(60
−90°
N)
0
0.5
−0.5
−1
1
−1.5
2000 20102020 20302040 20502060 20702080 2090
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 20102020 20302040 20502060 20702080 2090
1960
1970
1980
1990
Tem
per
ate
reg
ion
(30
−90°
N)
1960−2000 2001−2100
Cu
mu
lati
ve N
EP
(P
g C
reg
ion
−1)
2
3
1
0
−1
−2
−3
4 (a) (b)
(c) (d)
Fig. 7 Decadal variability in cumulative NCE from 1960 to 2100 for the regions 30–601N (a–c) and 60–901N (d–f).
746 E . S . E U S K I R C H E N et al.
r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 12, 731–750
the results from our prognostic simulation suggest that
it is important to monitor global climate change indica-
spheric CO2) to assess which path we are following.
Model results compared generally to other studies
Our model results generally concur with eddy covar-
iance studies in high latitudes that have suggested a
strong link between the timing of spring thaw, growing
season length, and C balance (Frolking, 1997; Goulden
et al., 1998; Black et al., 2000). Eddy covariance studies in
temperate broadleaved forests show that for each addi-
tional day that the growing season is extended, net C
uptake increases by 5.7 g C m�2 yr�1 (Baldocchi et al.,
2001). This finding is similar to the TEM estimate of
5.3 g C m�2 yr�1 increase in net C uptake for each day
that the growing season is extended across the tundra,
mixed forests, and shrubs/grasses of the MLS snow
cover regions (Fig. 6e; Table 6). In an analysis of trends
in growing season length based on observational evi-
dence and a leaf phenology model, Keyser et al. (2000)
estimated that from the 1940s to 1990s across Alaska
and north-western Canada the growing season had
lengthened by 2.6 day per decade, with a range of
0.48–6.97 day per decade. In addition, Myneni et al.
(1997) found that the growing season of high-latitude
terrestrial ecosystems increased by 12 days during the
years 1981–1991 from analyses with satellite data.
Analyses based on biogeochemical and atmospheric
modeling suggest that increased photosynthesis at the
start of the growing season and enhanced respiration
from a large, labile pool of decomposing soil occurred
in northern high latitudes between the years 1980 and
1997 (Randerson et al., 1999). These increased respira-
tion rates may be offset by greater nutrient availability
that promotes productivity (Bonan & Van Cleve, 1992;
Oechel & Billings, 1992). Studies of forest inventory and
satellite data identified biomass C gains in Eurasian
boreal and North American temperate forests, with
losses in some Canadian boreal forests between 1981
and 1999 (Myneni et al., 2001). These gains in produc-
tivity and vegetation C could be counter-balanced by
further thawing of frozen soils associated with a warm-
ing and drying that decreases water tables, exposes
organic peat, increases growing season respiration
rates, and results in an increasingly unstable soil C pool
(Oechel & Billings, 1992; Goulden et al., 1998). In addi-
tion, an extended growing season may increase the
supply of labile C and promote winter respiration
(Brooks et al., 2004). However, it is also possible that
the soil heterotrophs may acclimate to warmer tem-
peratures, lowering soil respiration over the long-term
(Giardina & Ryan, 2000), and increasing net C uptake.
Our results suggest that increases in growing season
length are likely to be greatest in areas with longer snow
cover duration (Table 6). However, since these areas are
characterized by vegetation of low productivity (e.g.
tundra in MLS-Jun vs. forest in MLS-Apr; Table 5),
increases in NPP, NEP, vegetation C, and Rh are not as
large as regions with shorter snow cover duration, more
vegetation, but less pronounced increases in growing
season length. Furthermore, our findings show a reduc-
tion in soil C with increases in growing season length
(Fig. 6g), with greatest losses in those areas with more
vegetation (Table 6); these findings also indicate that
this trend could reverse in the future (Fig. 6h).
Potential shifts in vegetation as related to growing seasononset and productivity
The trends detected in this analysis are interesting to
consider in the context of shifts in vegetation that are not
explicitly accounted for in our model, but may become
important regulators of C dynamics over decadal time
scales in the future. Northern coniferous ecosystems
could potentially shift to ecosystems with a greater
component of mixed broadleaf–needleleaf trees. The
importance of this shift is best understood in light of
the photosynthetic activity of deciduous and coniferous
species. Deciduous species begin photosynthesis follow-
ing leaf-out and are characterized by a short, concen-
trated growing season. Coniferous species exhibit low
rates photosynthesis for longer periods of time, with net
C uptake in midsummer easily dominated by high rates
of respiration (Griffis et al., 2003). Consequently, these
shifts in vegetation could alter the surface energy budget
and may also generate changes in the observed cycle of
CO2 (Chapin et al., 2000; Eugster et al., 2000). In addition,
there may be a northern advance of the treeline in boreal
regions (Keyser et al., 2000; Lloyd et al., 2003), and the
conversion of arctic tundra to shrubland (Sturm et al.,
2005). The increased abundance of shrubs may contri-
bute to increases in snow depth due to the ability of the
shrubs to trap snow and an associated decrease in
sublimation. These increases in snow depth may cause
warmer soil temperatures, increased activity of the soil
microbes, and higher rates of soil CO2 efflux (Sturm
et al., 2005). To more fully understand the uncertainties
associated with these vegetation shifts, models are being
developed and refined to simultaneously predict vegeta-
tion distribution and the dynamics of C storage in high-
latitudes (e.g. Epstein et al., 2001; Kaplan et al., 2003).
Conclusions
This study suggests that there are strong connections
between decreases in snow cover, increases in perma-
H I G H - L A T I T U D E C L I M AT E C H A N G E I N D I C A T O R S 747
r 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 12, 731–750
frost degradation, earlier thaw, later freeze, and a
lengthened growing season. These dynamics substan-
tially influence changes in C fluxes, including enhanced
respiration and productivity in our analyses. Such en-
hancements yield increases in vegetation C, but overall
decreases in soil C. Although trends in growing season
length increases are greater at higher latitudes, in-
creases in productivity and respiration are not as large
as those in lower latitudes. The implications of the
responses by terrestrial ecosystems to climate change
are substantial. Projected warming during the coming
decades raises even more questions. A positive feed-
back between spring snow-cover disappearance and
radiative balance can result in warmer spring air tem-
peratures (Groisman et al., 1994; Stone et al., 2002). These
warmer spring air temperatures will then likely exacer-
bate the continued early thaw and growing season
onset, leading to further modifications in productivity
and net C uptake. Even small changes in global tem-
peratures could result in imbalanced responses in arctic
and boreal regions, with feedbacks that may enhance
such processes as photosynthesis and respiration. Our
analyses imply that the relative strength of these feed-
backs affect the future trajectory of C storage in high
latitude regions. Therefore, it is important to improve
our understanding of the relative responses of photo-
synthesis and respiration to changes in atmospheric
CO2 and climate.
Acknowledgements
Funds were provided by the NSF for the Arctic Biota/Vegetationportion of the ‘Climate of the Arctic: Modeling and Processes’project (OPP- 0327664), and by the USGS ‘Fate of C in AlaskaLandscapes’ project. A portion of this work was carried out atthe Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Admin-istration. We thank the Joint Program on Science and Policy ofGlobal Change at MIT for use of their simulation results. SergeiMarchenko and Monika Calef provided technical assistance withthe permafrost map.
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