Impacts of livestock feeding technologies on greenhouse gas emissions

Isabelle Weindl

POTSDAM INSTITUTE FORCLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH

IMPACTS OF LIVESTOCK FEEDING TECHNOLOGIES ON GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSIONS

OUTLINE

Introduction

Methodology and DataLivestock production

MAgPIE modelling framework

Model applicationScenario analysis

Results

Discussion

06.07.2010 Impacts of Livestock Feeding Technologies on Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2

INTRODUCTION

Expected trendsPopulation growth, rising per capita caloric intake, diet shift towards animal products

Pressure on agricultural (eco‐)systems

Dominance of livestock sector Grazing land ruminants: 30 % of land surface

Feed crops: 34 % of global cropland

Livestock sector: 18 % of anthropogenic GHG emissions

ChallengesCompetition for biomass

Trade‐off: livestock or energy sector?

Mitigation of GHG emissions

Dietary change more beneficial than technological mitigation?


INTRODUCTION

Urgent need: Identify main characteristics of LPExploring impacts of global change on livestock sector & vice versa

Estimating extend of livestock revolution and its transformationpressures on agricultural systems

Assessment of the combined effects of various potential developments within the livestock sector, by:

Analysing sensitivity of decisive impact variables with respect to variations of most important parameters describing LP‐Systems

Central ideaMagnitude of environmental impacts per animal product highly determined by conversion efficiency


06.07.2010 Impacts of Changes in the Livestock Sector on Greenhouse Gas Emissions 5

Weindl et al.

(2010)

METHODOLOGY AND DATA ‐

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION ‐

METHODOLOGY AND DATA


Regional specific feed energy requirements per unit animal product generated (GJ/t FM) and the share of different feedstock categories in the feed mix

0

10

20

30

40

50Cattle milk sub‐system

0

20

40

60Chicken egg sub‐system

0

50

100

150Pig sub‐system

0

200

400

600

800Beef cattle sub‐system

0

50

100Meat‐type chicken carcass

sub‐system

Weindl et

al. (2010)

METHODOLOGY AND DATA ‐

MAGPIE MODELLING FRAMEWORK ‐


Popp et al., 2010 ‐

modified

MODEL APPLICATION

Baseline ScenarioSix 10‐year time steps: 1995 – 2055

No climate impacts on future yields

Exogenous scenario inputs: Drivers of global change


MODEL APPLICATION

Scenarios of feeding technologies


Regional initial livestock parametrization for 1995

Parametrization of the region with the highest

conversion

efficiency from feed to food.

Parametrization of the regionwith the lowest

conversion

efficiency from feed to food

Linear transformationex

tensive

intensive

MODEL APPLICATION

Global agricultural non‐CO2emissions (Mt CO2‐e)


Weindl et al. (2010)

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Worldref

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Worldext

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Worldint

MODEL APPLICATION

Regional agricultural non‐CO2emissions (Mt CO2‐e)


0

1000

2000

3000AFRref

0

1000

2000

3000AFRext

0

1000

2000

3000AFRint

0

1000

2000

3000CPAref

0

1000

2000

3000CPAext

0

1000

2000

3000CPAint

0

500

1000

1500EURref

0

500

1000

1500EURext

0

500

1000

1500EURint

0

500

1000FSUref

0

500

1000FSUext

0

500

1000FSUint

0

1000

2000

3000LAMref

0

1000

2000

3000LAMext

0

1000

2000

3000LAMint

Weindl et al.

(2010)

DISCUSSION

Action space for possible future developmentsEffects of extensive/intensive scenarios as upper/lower bounds for GHG emissions illustrate range & extent of mitigation options of livestock sector.

Essential supplement to the mitigation efforts of other sectors.

Trade‐off: Reducing impact of livestock production on environment by a shift towards a more vegetal based diet versus socio‐economic benefits of livestock.

Environmental and social sustainability of the future use of biomass depends on the way in which the main trade‐offs involving livestock production are resolved.


Integrate the issue of GHG emissionsinto a wider matrix of potential trade‐offs

Isabelle Weindl

POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR

CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH

THANK YOU

IMPACTS OF LIVESTOCK FEEDING TECHNOLOGIES ON GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSIONS

BIBLIOGRAPHYBondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W.,Gerten, D., Lotze‐Campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., Smith, B., 2007. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology 13(3): 679‐706.

FAOSTAT (2010) www.faostat.fao.org

Krausmann, F., Erb, K.H., Gingrich, S., Lauk, C., Haberl, H., 2008. Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000: A comprehensive assessment of supply, consumption and constraints. Ecological Economics 65 (3), 471‐487.

Lotze‐Campen, H., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Jachner, A., Popp A., Lucht, W., 2008a. Food demand, productivity growth and the spatial distribution of land and water use: a global modeling approach. Agricultural Economics 39, 325‐338.

Popp, A., et. al., Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non‐CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production. Global Environ. Change (2010), doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001.

Steinfeld, H., Gerber, P., Wassenaar, T., Castel, V., Rosales, M., 2006. Livestock's long shadow. Environmental issues & options. (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 2006).

Wirsenius, S., 2000. Human Use of Land and Organic Materials. Modeling the Turnover of Biomass in the Global Food System. Chalmers University, Göteborg, Sweden.



OPTIONAL SLIDES



GHG emissions from agricultural productionAnthropogenic N2O emissions from agricultural soils:calculated by including direct as well as indirect emissions

Anthr. N2O from animal waste management systems (AWMS):produced by nitrification and denitrification of the organic nitrogen content in livestock manure and urine

Anthropogenic CH4 emissions from AWMSs:are produced during the anaerobic decomposition of manure

Anthropogenic CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation:occur when microbes in an animal’s digestive system ferment food

Anthropogenic CH4 emissions from rice cultivation:depend on water management practices and regional specific emission factors

All emission factors are consistent with IPCC


METHODOLOGY AND DATA (OPTIONAL)

Model regions


Livestock production



Weindl

et al.

(2010)

MODEL APPLICATION

Regional agricultural non‐CO2emissions (CO2‐e)


Weindl

et al.

(2010)

0

500

1000MEAref

0

500

1000MEAext

0

500

1000MEAint

0

1000

2000NAMref

0

1000

2000NAMext

0

1000

2000NAMint

0

250

500PAOref

0

250

500PAOext

0

250

500PAOint

0

500

1000PASref

0

500

1000PASext

0

500

1000PASint

0

1000

2000

3000

4000SASref

0

1000

2000

3000

4000SASext

0

1000

2000

3000

4000SASint

Impacts of livestock feeding technologies on greenhouse gas emissions

Documents