IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ON TRANSPORT …...Damages to vehicles due to mass movements, landslides and accidents 3. Accidents: more but less severe incidents under extreme

C . D o l l , S . K l u g ( I S I ) , A . P a p a n i k o l a o u , E . M i t s a k i s

( C E R T H )

I n f r a D a y, B e r l i n , 9 . 1 0 . 2 0 1 0

IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ON

TRANSPORT – THE CASE OF GERMAN ROADS

AND THE WINTER 2009/10

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Consequences of recent d isasters in

Europe

Event Area Road Rail Air Shipping Total Damage

Heavy rain, flood

November 2009

UK and Ireland Collapse and drop

of bridges, closed

A roads, floated

cars, chaos

Bridge collapse ,

Disrupted services

No reports Suspended lake

cruises, 20 sunk

boats,

UK, all sectors:

€ 390 mill.

Extreme cold

2009/2010

UK, middle Europe,

Italy

Accidents, road

closures, delays,

PT disturbance,

pavem. cracking

Close of Utrecht

Centraal, stuck of 5

Eurostar trains,

>2000 pass., 16h

Service suspension

at UK airports,

delays

Frozen channels

(Germany)

DE roads:

€ 1.3 mill.

Extratrop. Storm

Xynthia, 02/2010

DE, FR, BE, ES,

PT

Temporal airport

closures (CDG),

FR: €1320;

64 killed (FR: 53)

Flood and

mudslide,

Feb. 2010

Madeira, Portugal Bridgesdestroyed,

flooded roads,

floated cars,

Airport closed,

flight delays

€ 1500 mill.,

34 casualties

General floods May

– Aug. 2010

Central Europe

(PL, CZ, HU et al.)

PL: Secondary

roads flooded. HU:

several villages cut

off

PL: Submerged rail

station, broken

bridge

€2900 mill.

(PL 88%),

66 killed

Summer heat July

2010

Middle Europe,

southern

Scandinavia

Pavement

deterioration,

drivers harmed at

Gotthard tunnel

Evacuation of ICE

trains, DB: €500

compensation per

injured pass.

- - No information

Volcanic ash cloud North and middle

Europe

Airspace closure,

late & cancelled

flights worldwide

Airlines: € 160

mill./day ,

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Resul ts f rom in ternat ional l i terature

Vast majority of events reported for the

US. In Europe most documentations for

Scandinavian area.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1_CA 1_US 2_DE 2_FI 2_IS 2_NO 2_SE 2_UK 3_NZ

Nu

mb

er

of

case

s re

po

rte

d

Damage cases by extreme and country

12 Landslides

11 Avalanches

10 Floods

09 Wildfires

08 Storm surges

07 Storms

06 Drought

05 Snow

04 Rainfalls

03 Extensive Fog

02 Frost period

01 Heat period

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01 Infrastructrure assets

02 Infrastructure operations

03 User assets 04 User operations 05 Safety

Nu

mb

er

of

case

s re

po

rte

d

Damage cases by extreme and affected party

12 Landslides

11 Avalanches

10 Floods

09 Wildfires

08 Storm surges

07 Storms

06 Drought

05 Snow

04 Rainfalls

03 Extensive Fog

02 Frost period

01 Heat period

Most documented cases for

Infrastructure assets and user

operations. Economic assessment may

deliver different weights.

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Infrastructure assets and operations

1. Instant damages by inundations, floods and mass movements (avalanches, landslides)

in coastal zones, near rivers and in mountain areas.

2. Medium term damages: consequences of long extreme heat and cold periods mainly in

medium climate zones (middle Europe)

3. Operations: mass movements, extreme winter conditions in unprepared regions

Services, users and safety

Presumably more costly than infrastructure impacts

1. Traffic flow disturbance: road closures, speed reductions, delays and detouring due to

falling trees, strong wind or precipitation, flooding, etc.

2. Damages to vehicles due to mass movements, landslides and accidents

3. Accidents: more but less severe incidents under extreme storm, rain and winter

conditions. Impacts of extreme heat on driver performance Net cost effect not clear

state of knowledge

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Estimated damage costs per

disaster type, country and capita

Most affected: large European

central / south-western countries

Remarkably low relevance in

Scandinavian countries

Most relevant categories: Storms

and floods

Possible bias by national cultures

to reporting damages;

incompleteness of damage records

Disasters by type

and count ry

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Natura l Catast rophes 1950 - 2010

Floods ($95 bn.):

common major threat

for all regions.

Storms and storm

surges ($87 bn.):

relevant for northern

and western Europe

(Atlantic coast line).

Heat, droughts and

wildfires ($43 bn.):

threats for southern

and western Europe.

0,00

10.000.000,00

20.000.000,00

30.000.000,00

40.000.000,00

50.000.000,00

60.000.000,00

70.000.000,00

80.000.000,00

90.000.000,00

100.000.000,00

Western Europe Southern Europe Northern Europe Eastern Europe

Esti

mat

es

in 1

00

0 U

S$

Total estimated damage per region 1900 - 2010 1 Heat wave

2 Cold wave

3 Drought

4 Storm

5 Storm surge

6 Wildfire

7 Flood

8 Mass movem.

Data source:EM-DAT Database

CRED, KU Leuven

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Natura l Catast rophes 1950 - 2010

Relative perspective:

Mediterranean area

most affected. (floods,

droughts, heat waves)

Western Europe:

mainly affected by

storms

Least relevance in

Scandinavia (storms)

and eastern Europe

(floods)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Western Europe Southern Europe Northern Europe Eastern Europe

Esti

mat

es

pe

r ca

pit

a in

10

00

US$

Estimated damage per capita and region 1900 - 2010 1 Heat wave

2 Cold wave

3 Drought

4 Storm

5 Storm surge

6 Wildfire

7 Flood

8 Mass movem.

Data source:EM-DAT Database

CRED, KU Leuven

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Significant data only

since 1950

Options / culture of

data reporting and

recording.

Slope of estimated

damages much more

significant:

Severity of

extremes?

Transport

network density?

Availability of

past damage

records?

Slope over t ime

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

51

19

53

19

56

19

58

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61

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63

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65

19

67

19

69

19

71

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73

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75

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77

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79

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81

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19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

Drought

Extreme temperature

Flood

Mass movement wet

Storm

Wildfire

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WEATHER core object ive

Determine the physical impacts and the economic costs of

extreme weather events on transport systems and identify the

costs and benefits of suitable adaptation and emergency

management strategies.

7 sub-objectives according to the work packyage structure

of the WEATHER project

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Work Package f low p lan

WP

0A

+B

: M

anagem

ent and d

issem

ination

WP1: Weather trends and economy-wide impacts

WP2: Vulnerability of transport

systems

WP3: Crisis management and

emergency strategies

WP4: Adaptation strategies

WP5: Governance, incentives and innovation

WP6: Case studies

WP7: Policy conclusions and final conference

Workshop 1Workshop 1

Workshop 2Workshop 2

Workshop 3Workshop 3

Scenario

s a

nd a

ssessm

ent

fram

ew

ork

Impacts

, m

anagem

ent

and a

da

pta

tio

n o

ptio

ns /

CB

A

Implementation

options and

benefits

Local impacts

and options

Case s

tudy c

onditio

ns,

requirem

ents

and e

xperie

nces

Jo

ine

d w

ork

sh

op

Jo

ine

d w

ork

sh

op

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Case s tud ies, reg ions and modes

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1. Flood of 2002 in eastern

Germany

2. Summer heat 2007 in

southern Europe

3. Flooding of the rail link

Vienna - Prague in 2006

4. Hurricanes Lothar 1999

and Kyrill (2007) in France

5. Heavy snow on Alpine

roads in northern Italy

6. Rhine shipping during

2003 summer heat

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Weather - re la ted events cons idered in the

pro ject

Events and categories Explanation

Temperature

Heat periods Longer periods exceeding a certain minimum daytime temperature

Frost periods Longer periods remaining below a certain maximum daytime temperature

Extensive fog Longer periods with frequent sight below a certain distance

Precipitation

Rainfalls Several day periods with a minimum daily precipitation above a certain level

Snow Longer period with snow level exceeding a given minimum.

drought Longer period with precipitation remaining below a given daily maximum

Wind

Storms Events with wind speeds exceeding a certain level

Storm surges Wind speeds and water levels exceeding certain levels

Consequent events

Wild fires Uncontrolled fires covering a certain minimum area due to heat and drought

Floods / flash floods Water levels exceeding a given threshold in populated areas

Landslides / avalanches Minimum area covered by slipping ground

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Damage and impact categor ies

Case / incident Infrastructures Vehicles / services User

Investment Operations Investment Operations Time loss Safety

Complete physical

destruction of assets

Rein-

vestment

Traffic

control

Accident at

incident

Driver costs Detouring Casualties at

incident

Partial physical

damage of assets

Repair

investm.

Traffic

control

Increased

crash risk

Driver costs Reduced

capacity

Increased

crash risk

Temporal closure of

infrastructure

Traffic

control

Fuel/driver f.

detouors

Time f.

detours

Risk on

detour

Temporal obstruction

of infrastructure

Clearing, tr.

control

Increased

crash risk

Driver costs Reduced

capacity

Increased

crash risk

Direct damaging of

vehicles (hail, flood)

Replacem. /

repair

Impacts on vehicle

performance

Heating,

cooling,

Secondary

effect

Secondary

effect

Adverse driving

conditions

Driver costs Reduced

speed

Increased

crash risk

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Data sources:

Media reports

Road administration data (Deutscher Städtetag)

Liability insurance communications

Data re l iab i l i ty and se lected f igures

Sector Category Assessment rules Observations

Infrastructur

e

Property Standard reconstruction values from infrastructure

studies; reported costs

Cost reports > 1.4 bn. €

(federal & local level)

Operations Duration of closures / operations à €5000 Single reports

Vehicles /

services

Property Insurance reports on weather-inflicted crashes and

direct damages

Insurance reports: 55000

liability cases

Operations Estimates on road cllosures * traffic density *

average detour * operating costs (10 €/vkm)

Some reports, probably

incomplete

Users Time losses Traffic delays + road clusures * average detours *

VOT (13€/vehl.-h)

Some reports, probably

incomplete

Accidents Accident statistics on casualties by cause and

severity * VSL (1.5 mill. €/death casualty)

Insurance reports: 25

killed, >12 sev. inj.

Colour

codes

Reliable data and assessment

Weak data OR assessment

Poor data AND assessment

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Prel iminary cost est imate of the winter

season 2009/10 on German roads

Cost estimates Infrastructure Vehicles /

Services Users TOTAL

1000 € Property Opera-

tions Property

Opera-

tions

Time

loss Accidents

Storm

Klaus * Dez 2009 1'430'000 0 275'000 0 0 8'000 1'713'000

Daisy 2009/2010 52'600 90 0 600 19 0 53'309

Storm

Keziban Jan 10 0 200 0 2'000 67 4'700 6'967

Storm

Xynthia Feb 10 0 50 3'100 4'000 116 25'600 32'866

TOTAL 1'482'600 340 278'100 6'600 202 38'300 1'806'142

* Including damages due to the general frost season 2009/2010rk

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Similar accounting currently going on for:

longer period ( 2000 – 2010; if possible from 1990)

other events / seasons

selected European countries (DE, UK, AT, GR, FR, IT)

other modes (UPT, rail, air, waterborne)

Network density and criticality indicators (TRANS-TOOLS model application)

Meteorological risk indicators (ESPON, ENSAMBLES / ECA&D, etc.)

Composite vulnerability indicators for value transfer

European vulnerability matrix by

Mode of transport

Region and

Weather event

Out look: Genera l isat ion of resul ts

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Risk categories for

winter storms and

tropical cyclones;

Source: ESPON-

Project 2006

Example : Risk to winter s torms and t rop ica l

cyc lones in Europe

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Ind icat ive resul ts for composi te

vulnerabi l i ty ind icators(Europe = 100)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

BelgiumNetherlands

MaltaFrance

UKDenmark

IrelandSwitzerlandCzech Rep.

SpainEstonia

LithuaniaLuxemb.

LatviaPoland

HungaryAustria

SloveniaSweden

GermanySlovakia

ItalyGreeceCyprus

NorwayFinland

RomaniaPortugalBulgaria

Risk indicators of national transport systems to winter storms and tropical cyclones.

Storm risk to road network density

Storm risk to passenger volume density

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