Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation and Key Considerations for the Future Presented to: ITE Annual Meeting August 13, 2020 Neil Pedersen, TRB Executive Director TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation
and Key Considerations for the Future
Presented to: ITE Annual Meeting
August 13, 2020
Neil Pedersen, TRB Executive Director
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Impacts of COVID-19 on Transportation
and Key Considerations for the Future
• Presentation Outline
– Impact of COVID-19 on travel
demand by mode
– Key considerations affecting long
term demand by mode
– Poll questions regarding future
demand
– Some cross modal and longer
term issues for consideration
Transportation Research Board• Mission
– Provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based research, information exchange, and policy advice regarding all modes of transportation.
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• Advise
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Aviation– Reduction in demand
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
2020 2019 % Reduction
4/14/20 87,534 2,208,688 96.0
7/27/20 700,043 2,613,346 73.2
– Source: Transportation Security Administration
– Reduction in flights (week ended 7/25/20
vs. 2019)
• Total: 48 percent
• Domestic: 43 percent
• International: 80 percent
– Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Credit: Nick Oxford/Reuters
Aviation
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– 2015-2019 increases: 4-8% per year
• Key long term considerations
– Length of economic recovery
– Public confidence that it is safe to
travel through airports and on
airplanes
– Telecommunications substitution for
business travel
– Changes in leisure travel
– Timing on vaccine availability
Credit: CNN
Poll Question
One year from now what will be TSA Checkpoint
Travel Numbers as a percentage of 2019 numbers?
A. 30-50%
B. 50-70%
C. 70-90%
D. >90%
Highways: Passenger Car Travel
• Personal travel reductions
from 2019
– April 4, 2020 Nationwide: 44
percent
– July 24, 2020 Nationwide: 11
percent– Source: Inrix
• Metro area data
– Has varied considerably based
on rate of reopening
Credit: CNN International
Highways: Passenger Vehicle Travel
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– Steady 1-2% growth per year
– Congestion growth in metro areas
• Key long term considerations
– Economic conditions
– Trip substitution (e.g. telework,
telemedicine
– Modal diversion
– Changes in density and distribution
of activities
– Auto ownership
Credit: Houston Chronicle
Public Transportation• Major reductions in ridership
(vs. 2019)
– Transit App Nationwide: 58%
reduction as of 7/29/20
– DC Metrorail: 90% reduction as
of 7/27/20
– DC Metrobus: 66% reduction as
of 7/27/20
– New York MTA commuter rail:
78-84% reduction as 7/27/20 Credit: ABC7NY
Sources: Transit App, WMATA, New York MTA
Public Transportation
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– 2015-2019: 7.3% reduction
• Key long term considerations
– Willingness to return to crowded
vehicles & stations
– Telework impacts
– Changes in density and distribution
of activities, especially office space
– Auto ownership
– Willingness of governments to pay
subsidiesCredit: New York Times
Poll Question
One year from now what will be nationwide transit
ridership as a percentage of 2019 numbers?
A. 50-65%
B. 65-80%
C. 80-90%
D. >90%
Ride-hailing - TNCs
• Uber ridership decreased by 94%
in March
• Major layoffs of employees by
both Uber and Lyft
• Gradual increases in ridership as
cities have opened up
• Highly publicized safety
measures, such as plastic shields
between drivers and passengers
• Shift to food delivery to offset
reduction in passenger travel Credit: Uber
Sources: Forbes, Business Insider
Ride-hailing - TNCs
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– Dramatic increases, especially in
CBDs and to airports
• Key long term considerations
– Public confidence in safety of
shared ride vehicles
– Profitability of ride-hailing
– Integration with transit as part of
Mobility as a Service approach
– Automated vehicle shared ride
servicesCredit: Forbes
Micromobility
• Many companies downsized or
suspended services
• Companies pulled out of some
markets altogether
• Major increases bicycling and e-
bikes, but most privately owned
• March-May bikeshare ridership
down 44% in 8 largest systems
• Reluctance to use shared
vehicles that could be infected Source: NPR
Micromobility
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– Explosion in use of e-scooters
– Docked bikeshare systems steady
• Key long term considerations
– Public acceptance of using shared
vehicles
– Profitability for companies to
replace those that have pulled out
of markets
– Conversion of travel lanes for bike
and other micromobility use
Source: Next City
Telework• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– 10% telework full time
– 68% traveled to office 5 days/week
• Key long term considerations
– How many COVID-19 teleworkers
will continue teleworking long
term, part time or full time?
– Will corporations adopt new
telework policies?
– What is the impact on peak period
travel, especially for transit?
Credits: previous slide and photo this slide,
Giovanni Circella, Univ. of California, Davis
Poll Question
One year from now what percent of employees will
telework at least three days a week?
A. 15-20%
B. 20-25%
C. 25-30%
D. >30%
Goods Movement - Truck Travel
• Reductions from 2019
– Long haul truck traffic
• April 4, 2020 Nationwide: 10%
• July 24, 2020 Nationwide: 5%
– Metro area fleets
• April 4, 2020 Nationwide: 25%
• July 24, 2020 Nationwide: 7%
• Hours of service exemptions
• Food and rest area issues
Credit: Flickr
Goods Movement – Truck Travel
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– Steady growth, slightly faster than
passenger travel growth
• Long term considerations
– Economic considerations
– Supply chain changes, more
sourcing domestically?
– E-commerce, last mile deliveries
from distribution centers
– Truck driver shortages
– Automated trucks
Credit: GCN
Goods Movements - Freight Rail
• U.S. Rail Freight v. 2019 for week
ended 4/18/20 7/18/20
– Total carloads: -27.5% -16.1%
– Intermodal Units: -19.1% -9.6%
– Total rail traffic: -23.3% -12.8%
– Strong rebound from low point
• Largest decreases by product
– Metallic ores and metals (-29.7%)
– Coal (-28.6%)
– Source: Association of American Railroads
Credit: kor-pak.com
Goods Movements – Freight Rail
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– Rail volumes had been steadily
declining since mid-2018
• Long term considerations
– Economic factors
– Changes in sourcing for parts and
materials and locations of
manufacturing
– Decline in use of coal, increase in
renewable energy
Credit: The Courier-Mail
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
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Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit
US Economic Outlook | July 2020
Maritime - Ports
• As of May, containerized cargo at
U.S. ports was down
approximately 20-25% from the
same time periods in 2019.
• Bulk cargo movements at U.S.
ports year-to-date have declined
15-25% over 2019.
• Cruise ships, which are a major
revenue generator for ports,
have suspended sailings.
Credit: gcaptain.com
Source: American Association of Port Authorities
Maritime - Ports
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– Port tonnage was increasing each
year, especially exports
• Long term considerations
– Rate of economic recovery
– Trade war impacts
– Domestic sourcing of parts
– Recovery of cruise industryCredit: SAFETY4SEA
E-commerce
• During the peak of the
shutdown, online ordering
nearly doubled
• Dramatic increases in delivery
of meals and pharmacy
deliveries
• Impacts on distribution centers
and last mile deliveries
• Increased use of robots and
drones for deliveries
E-commerce
• Pre-COVID-19 Trends
– 2017 E-commerce share: 10.1%
– 2020 Pre-COVID share: 16.1%
– Source: Oberlo
• Long term considerations
– Will COVID-19 shopping habits be
retained?
– Expansion into additional markets
– Future of brick and mortar stores,
especially malls
– Use of AVs, including robots, and
drones
Credit: thehonestbison.com
Poll Question
One year from now what percentage of retail
shopping will be via e-commerce?
A. 15-20%
B. 20-25%
C. 25-30%
D. >30%
Cross Modal and Longer Term Issues
• Changes in location and density
of economic activity, including
location of jobs and
manufacturing
• Supply chain issues,
vulnerabilities, resilience
• Telecommunications as a
substitute for travel (e.g.
telework, telework, tele-
shopping, tele-recreation
• Integration of new mobility
services with transit
• Impact on the development and
deployment of autonomous
vehicles
• Long term implications of
unemployment on auto
ownership and modal usage
• Social equity issues exposed by
the pandemic
Transportation Research Board
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• TRB Annual Meeting,
Washington, DC, Jan. 2021
(to be held virtually)
Neil J. Pedersen
TRB Executive Director
Credit: Risdon Photography