Jan 03, 2016
Impacts from a warming climate can cascade downstream
Increase fire intensity
Increase erosion andsedimentation
Decrease summer flows and increasestream temperature
Differentiate amongdifferent types offish habitat andtheir sensitivities to:
-increased/decreased flow-thermal loading/temp-landsliding/debris flow-sedimentation
Predict shallow landslide potential, export to Google Earth, and identify overlaps w/habitats
Less concern More concern
Red=higher riskBlue = lower risk
Predict debris flow potential, export to Google Earth, and identify overlaps w/habitats
Red=higher riskBlue = lower risk
An area of higher concern
Use NetMap toquickly identifyoverlaps betweenhigh debris flowpotential andhigh qualityhabitat
Local areas of high risk forhabitat impacts could leadto increased protection atthose locations
ESI, working with William Elliot (USFS, Rocky Mountain Research Station) has integrated WEPPSurface (and road surface) erosion into NetMap (road, hillside, and post fire erosion)
Areas of higher potential road surface erosion (overlaps with fish habitat?)
NetMap contains many watershed parameters and analysis tools that are potentiallyuseful in evaluating the implications of climate change
-aquatic habitat type, sensitivity-stream temperature-fire severity (Flammap etc.)-post fire erosion-stream sedimentation-stream flow-road erosion
Two approaches:
1) Climate predictions (GCM) are ‘downscaled’ for air temperature (summer, winter), stream flow (summer), and wildfire severity etc. and imported into NetMap to quantitatively forecast impacts related to climate change (this requires further tool development);
or
2) A heuristic decision support approach - existing parameters and tools are used to map where in a watershed climate change would have the greatest impacts
-increasing fire intensity and erosion -increasing channel sedimentation -increasing summer stream temperature -decreasing summer flow
Begin by predicting fish habitat potential using a variety of NetMap tools
Higher quality habitat
Create customfish habitatmodels
Flame length (Flammap)
Prelim
Next, examine how fire intensity (current or future climate) relates to erosion risk
Surface erosion intensity (WEPP)
Flame length (Flammap)
Prelim
Next, examine how fire intensity (current or future climate) relates to erosion risk
Surface erosion intensity (WEPP)
From a climate change perspective, where would prescribed fire or thinning yield themost benefits
Then, search for overlaps between climate change related fire risk and erosion with fish habitat using automated tools in NetMap
Fire to Fish: Connect the Dots (channels)
Search for overlaps among increased fire risk, erosion potential & habitat quality
Climate change impacts on fish habitat: Evaluate at subbasin scales
NetMap contains tools for aggregating watershed data up to the scale ofsub basins, informing larger scale, watershed planning efforts
Predict locations whereclimate change relatedincreases in streamtemperature wouldbe most severe
Sensitivity of streamtemperature to increasesin thermal loading andair temperature
Identify locations whereclimate change relateddecreases in summer lowflow would have thegreatest impacts (low gradient,unconfined stream segments)
Reduced low flow impacts
Identify locations whereclimate change relateddecreases in summer lowflow would have thegreatest impacts (low gradient,unconfined stream segments)
Reduced low flow impacts
These subbasins with highsedimentation – low flowpotential may benefit most fromsediment reduction programsrelated to fire and roads
Design fire breaks according to climate change increases in fireseverity and associated impactson sensitive stream habitats