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Impact of Variable Generation Philip M Gonski

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    The current power system in the United States consists of meeting customer demand in

    real-time and balancing supply and demand. With the proposed building of 145 GW1 of

    installed variable generation capacity in the United States, the existing grid will need to

    be examined for the long terms effects and limitations that this might place upon our

    system. Interconnection requirements and standards must also be updated to reflect the

    addition of a new source of power generation. With the establishment of IEEE

    subcommittees as well as the IEEE 1547 standard, it appears that this topic is deservedly

    receiving much debate and research. As several countries already undertaken vast

    research and experience on this topic, the Untied States will have a large amount of

    information and data available to aide in the adapting of the grid to the upcoming demand

    for more renewable generation.

    Findings and Discussion

    Modeling Characteristics

    One of the crucial issues facing wind power is the modeling and dynamic of wind turbine

    generators on the current power grid. Coal and Nuclear turbine generator dynamics are

    well-understood and have been use in models for decades. Thus, for conventional

    generation, feasibility studies and impacts on the grid are well-known and well-

    documented. Per the NERC, conventional generators are mandated to provide

    comprehensive steady-state data and reporting procedures to model the dynamic

    performance of the system. Such information is required to build a representation of the

    system for planning, as required in NERC MOD-014 & MOD-015 2. Information gained

    from model simulations is critical as it is required to perform load flow calculations, short

    circuit analysis, as well as stability studies to determine the impact on the overall system.

    Model characteristic data is usually provided by the manufacturer, however, in the case

    of wind power, such information is not yet developed. Even more so, NERC standardsfor modeling and model validation have not yet been applied for wind generation. Until

    models have been developed, several companies have relied upon using conventional

    generator information. At the best-case scenario, user-written models for generators have

    1 http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf

    2 http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf

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    been developed which are both difficult to maintain as well as use. Thus, one of the

    critical steps towards developing a renewable portfolio is the adaptation of a well-

    recognized, industry-standard model, as is the case for traditional generation. One of the

    hindrances facing such a practice is the current use of four different turbine generator

    types with different characteristics.

    The four turbines models currently in use today are classified into four types: squirrel

    cage induction generators (type 1), wound-rotor induction generations with variable rotor

    resistance (type 2), and double-fed induction generators (type 3), and asynchronous

    generators with power converters (type 4). All of these generators, especially types 3 & 4

    have dramatically different short circuit characteristics than synchronous generators as

    can be seen in the figure 1 below. In this graph, the top waveform represents a wind

    plant fault contribution, while the bottom represents a conventional synchronous

    generator of a similar size. Such a graph clearly displays the errors that might arise in

    using conventional generators to model the slightly more complicated wind generators.

    Figure 1 Short Circuit Contributions of Double-Fed Induction vs Synchronous Generator3

    Induction generators of types 1 and type 2 provide initial fault conditions similar to that

    of a synchronous generator; however the current rapidly decays as flux collapses. Types

    3 & 4 posses a high degree of controllability of both frequency and power output. Type 3

    generators are especially difficult to model as the characteristics can be drastically

    3 A Whirl of Activity http://www.ieee.org/organizations/pes/public/2009/nov/index.html

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    changed by closing a switch to purposely short the rotor during a fault for protection. To

    further compound such issues, these types of generators are not well-represented in the

    industry and are often little understood by the utility engineers who are involved in

    performing grid reliability testing. Currently, to resolve these complex issues, the IEEE

    has established a working committee tasked with fostering cooperation between turbine

    generator manufacturers and vendors of short-circuit modeling software to ensure that

    renewable generation is accurately modeled and analyzed.

    As discussed previously, wind generation is vastly different from the characteristics of

    conventional synchronous generation. Thus wind interconnections may require the use of

    more detailed analysis methods. Wind systems often have very weak fault current levels,

    series compensation, as well as complex protective relaying to accommodate the rapid

    changes in output that might occur. Wind generators are often located in remote

    transmission regions and are thus subject to small short circuit toleration, and a very large

    voltage drop possibility due to the lower voltage that is often used for transmission.

    Developing models for such transients is required to compare and select generators,

    ensure compliance with grid regulations, as well as ensure full-voltage control and power

    quality4 via the usage of shunt capacitors. Figure 2 below displays one example of a

    complex wind generating system that must be modeled as part of analysis

    Figure 2 Complex Wind Turbine Models5

    4 A Whirl of Activityhttp://www.ieee.org/organizations/pes/public/2009/nov/index.html

    5 A Whirl of Activity http://www.ieee.org/organizations/pes/public/2009/nov/index.html

    4

    http://www.ieee.org/organizations/pes/public/2009/nov/index.htmlhttp://www.ieee.org/organizations/pes/public/2009/nov/index.htmlhttp://www.ieee.org/organizations/pes/public/2009/nov/index.html
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    Grid Interconnection Standard Overview

    In order to curtail any potential affects on the stability of the power system, certain,

    interconnection standards have been established. The most important requirement is for

    low-voltage-ride through (LVRT) in the event of system faults. During three-phasefaults, the generator must stay online for the normal fault-clearing time of up to nine-

    cycles. Turbine generators built before 2008 must also remain online despite a voltage

    dip as high as .15 p.u at the high side of the generator step-up transformer. Systems

    installed after this period have recently been extended to 0.0 p.u. At the point of

    interconnect, reactive power control of +/- .956. Certain groups, such the Canadian

    Province of Ontario, have established very strict LVRT and interconnection

    requirements7which are quickly setting the groundwork for future requirements to come.

    Although power terminals of wind generation have very different behavior from

    conventional generation, they are largely compatible with existing power systems in

    operation. The Grid Codes specified by FERC 66A as well as IEEE 1547 which holds

    true for conventional generation is consistently being met by commercial wind

    generation. Voltage, output, and ramp control requirements have also been met when

    requested.

    In a majority of the United States grid, the output of dispatchable generation (generation

    which may be controlled in output) resources follows change of demand. A small

    percentage of generation in any area is designating as providing Automatic Generation

    Control (AGC) in order to cope with the rapid and uncertain demand changes that may be

    6 http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41329.pdf

    7 http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/marketdata/windpower_CA-ME.asp

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    experienced in a short period of time. AGC control will be crucial to the power grid in

    managing the short-term uncertainty of variable generation, as well as the short-term

    impacts that may arise from forecasting error.

    AGC control consists of frequency and algorithms working together is maintain systemfrequency. The system is often located inside the system control center and monitors any

    potential imbalances that might arise from generation and demand within a control area.

    In this manner, the output of generators will be modified whenever a frequency change is

    required to ensure equilibrium in the system. As variable generation is utilized, AGC

    controls will need to trigger conventional generators outputs whenever there is any

    dramatic drop-off of wind generation. Thus, if there is a meterlogical event that requires

    the termination of wind generation on the grid, the system can react and ensure frequency

    limits are within boundaries. With the usage of speed governing in modern wind

    turbines, as well as their instant response to dispatch instructions, it is currently envisaged

    that wind turbines may be allowed to participate in AGC systems in the near future8.

    Nonetheless, as wind power penetrations continue to increase, AGC algorithms and

    parameters will need to be optimized in order to ensure maximum system performance.

    IEEE 1547 Distributed Generation Standard

    To cope with the consequences of a move towards connecting distributed generation intothe existing grid, the IEEE 1547 Standard was developed in 2003. This document

    provides a uniform standard for the operation, testing, safety, and maintenance of

    interconnecting distributed resources. To prevent degradations of the grid, the source

    must possess adequate voltage regulation, integrate with the grounding system of the

    transmission, synchronize with the main grid, and avoid any inadvertent energization of

    the surrounding power grid9. Thus, whenever the grid downstream of the turbines is

    offline, the turbines must cease from outputting power to the grid to allow for operators

    to service the necessary transmission section. During any faults that are experienced,

    turbines must be able to remain isolated from the main system, as well as ensure

    interconnection reliability. Any relevant breakers in the system must be designed to

    8http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf

    9 http://www.nrel.gov/eis/pdfs/interconnection_standards.pdf

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    coordinate with breakers at the transmission side to ensure full levels of fault protection.

    Once a voltage, frequency, of synchronism event occurs in the system, wind farms must

    be able to fully isolate themselves and then reassure their reconnection to the area grid.

    Power quality concerns should also are also as plants must maintain a balance of real and

    reactive power . The following figure 3 below details a typical interface as required by

    IEEE 1547.

    Figure 3 Typical IEEE 1547 Interconnection10

    As can be viewed in the figure, there must be coordination at all times between the grid

    area and local protective relaying system. Through such methods as paralleling

    switchgear, the system should be allowed to synchronize from the grid, as well as open

    breakers when necessary to ensure islanding during abnormal operation. Coordination is

    also critical as distributed generation may lead to an increase in the available fault current

    that can be provided to the system, as well as the breaker closing and fuse closing time.

    Thus, care should be taken by the utility to ensure that the system has been modified and

    can handle the new margin that has been added.

    10 http://www.nrel.gov/eis/pdfs/interconnection_standards.pdf

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    Voltage Control

    Wind Turbines also face the potential issue of voltage drop as a consequence of the

    variable power output. Modern plants today have developed voltage control and reactive

    power compensation that is increasingly comparable to conventional thermal plants.

    Wind plants also may provide dynamic and standard reactive power support as well as

    voltage control to increase stability. As can be seen in figure 4 below, modern wind

    plants are able to maintain a somewhat constant voltage level despite power output

    changes. Such control is done via a voltage regulator system which continuously adjusts

    the reactive power output to maintain constant voltage output. Thus, as far as the

    immediate power grid is concerned, wind turbine voltage does not have as much as a

    negative affect as it might be expected if such complicated control methods were

    designed and in place. In certain locations, this can be accomplished via power electronic

    transmission technologies such as SVC ( Static Var Compensators) or STATCOMS. In

    a typical SVC system, inductors and capacitors can be switched on to generate reactive

    power, or generate negative reactive power. In one example of this system at CalCement

    bus, without reactive power compensation the voltage variation drops to .905 p.u, while if

    reactive compensation is added this number climbs to .95 p.u.11 Adding multiple

    generators to a point of interconnect will also help to reduce voltage. Such a process is

    called aggregation and will be referred to in greater detail further on. Figure 4 displays

    an example of the variation reduction when multiple turbine generators are connected.

    As discussed previously, the main voltage concerns arise due to the remoteness and low

    voltage in use on available transmission lines rather than the wind generators themselves.

    Voltage concerns were primarily a concern in the early days of wind turbines when direct

    fed induction generators were used. However, with the advent of the double-fed

    induction type these concerns have been greatly diminished as it is often a built-in

    capability.

    Figure 4 Voltage Variations as Multiple Generators are Added12

    11 E. Muljadi and C.P Buttefield. Power Quality Aspects in a Wind Power Plant IEEE Conference

    Paper. January 2006.

    12 E. Muljadi and C.P Buttefield. Power Quality Aspects in a Wind Power Plant IEEE Conference

    Paper. January 2006.

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    Figure 5 Wind Voltage at Point of Interconnect13

    13 http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf

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    Double Fed Induction Generator

    The double fed induction generator, unlike most conventional generators, deals with a

    constantly varying torque by interconnecting both the stator and rotor to the power line.

    Rotor windings are connected to the grid via slip rings and back-to-back voltage

    converters which control both the rotor and grid current. In this manner, the rotor

    frequency can differ from the grid frequency. Thus, it functions asynchronously. By

    means of controlling the rotor current via the voltage converter, the active and reactive

    power fed to the grid from the stator operates independently of the generators turning

    speed. A basic design of this device can be viewed in figure 6 below

    Figure 6 Double Fed Induction Generator14

    Rotors for the induction generator are typically wound from two to three times the turns

    of the stator. As a consequence, the rotor experiences higher voltages than the rest of the

    system. Any voltage dips in the grid will have a magnified affect on the rotor of the

    14 http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf

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    generator. To protect such occurrences, turbines employ a device referred to as a

    crowbar which is able to short circuit the windings of the rotor if overvoltage or

    overcurrent is detected on the system. Another benefit of the controllability of the rotor

    voltages and current enables the induction generator to remain synchronized with the grid

    even when the wind turbine speed is variable. Double-fed generators power converters

    can also perform built-in reactive power control in order to regulate voltage and the fast-

    response of the converters enables improved voltage recovery and ride-through

    characteristics. As one can easily see, before the development of such technology,

    regular induction generators were seen to be very complicated to integrate into the

    existing system as they did not provide regulated output characteristics. With the advent

    of this new technology, moderate variability of wind power will have minimal impacts

    upon the system.

    Wind Impact Affect on Operations

    Perhaps one of the largest concerns plaguing wind power is the impact on the grid

    operation. At any given moment, wind operators must now exactly how much power is

    dispatchable to meet applicable load on the system. In the current market structure, day-

    ahead forecasts are utilized which allow operators to consider the anticipated levels of

    wind generation for the next operating day when making unit commitments. Real-time

    forecasts are also implemented which re-distribute the available balance of power on the

    grid at a set time period. As a direct consequence, the impact of wind variability on

    operations is impacted largely upon the time sample upon which the entire system is

    redispatched to match generation to demand. As is the case with the NY Independent

    Operator, the entire system is redispatched every five minutes15. In doing this, the affect

    of wind variability is reduced from one dispatch interval from the next. For some power

    operators, the redispatch period is one hour upon which the variability of wind in this

    time period may have adverse affects. Thus, for such power grids, a serious wind event

    that occurs within this hour period can lead to system emergencies.

    15 W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.

    Finley. Change in the Air.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.

    11

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    Based upon the day to day forecasts placed upon wind turbines, system operators need to

    organize sufficient spinning reserves to that any adverse affects on system balance will be

    avoided. Net loads of wind turbines must be served after accounting for the fact that

    wind has more variability than the load itself. Often, it is not seen as economical for

    operators to counterbalance every wind variation with a load change in the system.

    Perhaps the most drastic wind variation affect is ramping, a situation where there is a

    drastic upturn or downturn of wind generation. A recent study performed by Xcel

    Energy has shown that there are more high-ramp requirements with wind that without

    wind. This implicates that higher penetrations of wind will likely increase the ramp

    requirements for many hours of the year.

    Figure 7 Ramping and Timing Challenges16

    As a direct result of producing steeper ramping rates, generators may often be required to

    operate at reduced output. The recent Western Wind and Solar Integration (WWSIS)

    study has recently been completed on this topic and considers the overall operational

    impact of higher penetrations of renewable resources. Results of this study can be seen in

    Figure 8 below. In this study, 35% energy by renewables in the balancing area and 23%

    renewablese in the rest of the WECC were modeled for the year 2017 using historical

    weather data. Figure 8A highlights the base case when no new wind or solar power is

    available. Nuclear and coal remain to base loaded to meet demand, while gas turbines

    16 W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.

    Finley. Change in the Air.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.

    12

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    and hydropower remain for additional peaking abilities. Figure 8B highlights the

    situation in an April month with 35% renewable. In this result, coal plants and nuclear

    plants are required to be scaled down and cycle somewhat in order to balance available

    power on the system with demand. At such a high level of penetration where wind power

    is plentiful, forecasting accuracy is critical to meet this variability. During such times,

    wind power output must be curtailed as there is more power output than current demand.

    Figure 8C displays a 35% penetration level in July where the wind is relatively constant.

    In this situation, coal and nuclear are base loaded, while any of the variations are done

    with wind and available peaking units. Such behavior has a very minimal impact on

    operations in the system.

    Figure 8 Affect of Wind on Existing Generation17

    17 D. Corbus, D. Lew, G. Jordan, W. Winters, F. Van Hull, J. Monobianco, and B. Zavadil. Up with

    Wind.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 36-48. Nov/Dec 2009.

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    At even higher rates of penetration as discussed in Figure 8B, existing units variability is

    difficult to manage without the required ramping capabilities. On a real-time basis,

    operators must be able to economically dispatch available power to match load. As a

    result, accurate predictions of wind power will greatly aide operators to discern whether

    or not spinning load is achieved. The uncertainty that wind power introduces into the

    day-ahead forecasting system have been shown to increase system operating costs by up

    to $5.00/MWh18 at wind penetrations of 20% or 30%. These numbers, however, are

    strictly dependant on the nature of the associated dispatchable generation and its cost. . .

    Recent history events have also dictated the importance of accurate forecasting, as well as

    providing lessons upon some of the struggles that the Unit States has overcome to

    incorporate variable generation.

    Major United States Wind Events

    The large impact of variable generation in the United States had a substantial even on

    February 26, 2008. On this date, a very large downward ramp in wind production led

    directly to a major system emergency. Figure 9 highlights the dramatic downturn in MW

    output as a result of this downward ramp. Forecasts that were currently in use at the time

    relied primarily upon each individual day look-ahead that was provided by each wind

    generation source. Several of the methods used to provide these forecasts depended

    solely upon the wind generators themselves and as a result, several of these report results

    possessed great variations. Some forecasts were made by a commercial centralized

    forecasting system which was in the process of testing by ERCOT at the time of the

    incident. One of these tests is the 50% probability of exceedance, while another 80%

    probability of exceedance was performed19. This accurate data was available to ERCOT

    at the time of the incident; however, it was still in testing and was not considered

    operational.

    For a majority of the day prior to 5pm, forecasts were in line to the previous forecasts,

    however, after this period there was a dramatic shift in predictions. Resource plans made

    from the day-ahead forecasts indicated a gradual 1,000 MW decrease over the next three

    18http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41329.pdf

    19 These tests are based off a normal distribution curve and displays the likelihood of a event occuring

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    hours, while the commercial forecast had indicated a 200-500 MW rapid decrease from

    5-7pm. Actual production, as can be seen in Figure 9, closely matched the commercial

    forecast that was performed. As a result of this dramatic drop off in load, the grid did not

    have available resources to match the drop-off in load. Although such an even did not

    have a dramatic meteorological even associated with it, there was an atmospheric

    decrease in wind speed due to a weakening atmospheric gradient. This even was

    predicted in the commercial forecasting software which was not available to the system

    operators at the time of the incident. Such an event highlights the importance of how

    moderate ramps can cause large grid management issues, as well as underscoring how

    even fairly common weather events can have a significant grid impact.

    Figure 9 Wind Output Forecasts20.

    Another significant wind event occurred on April 4, 2009. In this event, there was a high

    wind cutout which leads wind output to drop from 650 to 450 MW within an hour time

    span. Wind output continued to decline until it reached around 310 MW. In total, thewind reductions lead to a 10% decline in overall grid power availability. However,

    unlike the ERCOT event, the commercial forecasting tools were in use and predicted

    20 W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.

    Finley. Change in the Air.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.

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    such an event. As a consequence, grid operators were able to schedule other spinning

    reserves during this time period to ensure enough power was available to match the

    roughly 3000 MW of power that was required. Clearly, with the growth of forecasting

    tools now available, operators are now in a better position to predict weather patterns and

    minimize operational impacts on the system.

    Forecasting

    Clearly, the largest impact on the power grid comes from the inherent variability of wind.

    As can be seen in the previous examples, tools are now available which can minimize the

    impact of wind by using a variety of commercially-available wind forecasting software.

    Wind power production forecasts rely mostly on a combination of physics-based and

    statistical models. Physics based models are referred to as numerical weather prediction

    models (NWP). Physic based models are highly reliable as they are based upon sets of

    equations which do not require training samples and are not limited by usage of

    historical data. In disjointing themselves from historical data, they ensure that the model

    may be able to predict events which had never occurred in quite the same way. Due to

    this ability, such prediction tools are very costly and are limited by the incomplete

    knowledge of the state of the atmosphere as well as the simulation parameters.

    Statistical models are based upon the relationship between input (predictor) and output(forecaster) variables. Unlike physics-based forecasting, this analysis relies upon large

    sets of historical data in both input and output. Thus, these models have the benefit of

    learning from experience and planning based upon what was seen in previous years

    without reliance upon the underlying physical relationships. Statistic models can be used

    in a variety of ways to aide in the forecasting process. In man cases, statistical model

    data is incorporated into NWP models to account for any terrain or native landscape

    affects that can not be represented in the NWP model by them. As they learn from

    experience, statistical models tend to predict typical events in any region and thus are not

    able to prevent rare events which were not part of the historical data. To ensure greatest

    accuracy, most generators reliable upon a variety of individual forecasts which can help

    to ease any uncertainty due to faulty input data and any differences in model

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    configurations21. For the most part, short-term forecasting relies heavily upon statistical

    models which can use recent data from nearby locations. Longer forecasts rely upon

    NWP forecasts incorporated into statistical models. Perhaps the best path used by

    generators is to use many different providers to generate forecasts. By doing this, they

    will be able to gauge for themselves which model appears to work the best in the subject

    area. In several recent studies, commercially available wind-forecasting can be shown to

    provide 80% of the benefits that would result from perfect forecasting technology.

    Depending on the mixture of available generation, a GE Energy integration study has

    reported an approximately $95 million cost savings with more accurate forecasting

    methods.

    Figure 10 displays a snapshot of available system demand and wind power in two

    situations. In the first graph, wind output and available demand matched quite well. As

    can be seen in the second graph, there is simply a lack of wind power available when

    demand for power increases. Such patterns can create operational challenges, however, if

    such events can be predicted, their impact is greatly lessened on the system if there is

    enough available generation that has been scheduled to meet demand

    Figure 10 Alberta Load and Wind Output22

    21 W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.

    Finley. Change in the Air.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.

    22http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Wind_Integration_Consultation_Oct19_website_version.ppt

    17

    http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Wind_Integration_Consultation_Octhttp://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Wind_Integration_Consultation_Octhttp://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Wind_Integration_Consultation_Oct
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    Factors Influencing Forecasting

    Despite all the rewards of forecasting, there remains many variable issues which can have

    a drastic impact on results. One of the most important factors is the quality of data. At

    all moments, wind plants must report the turbine availability and output back to the

    independent system operator. Lack of accurate data can often be attributed by the

    arrangement of the anemometer stations which are used in forecasts. As can be seen in

    Figure 11 from two neighboring sites, multiple measuring stations distributed throughout

    the plant produces vastly more accurate data than the site with just one measurement

    tower. The first chart displays information received from six separate wind stations,

    while the second chart displays information from a nearby wind farm with only one

    measuring station. One can easily view that having accurate measurements will allow for

    much better forecasting and information to ease operational difficulties.

    Ramping events can be very difficult to account for and are caused by a wide variety of

    meteorological events. Some of these events which can cause ramp-ups include a cold

    thunderstorm passage, rapid intensification of low pressure systems, sea breezes, as well

    as thermal stability or vertical mixing. Ramping-down events can be caused by pressure

    changes after thunderstorms, decrease in wind speed as a warm front passes, and

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    boundary-layer stabilization at sunset/nightfall23. Down-ramps are much more difficult to

    predict as they are often not related to any meteorological events, except for the influence

    of thunderstorms. Current NWP models can sometimes predict rapid changes in wind

    patterns, however, the inherent variability of ramping events makes it very difficult to

    accurate obtain the right forecast for every event as the causes are often very complex.

    Figure 11 Impact of Multiple Weather Stations24

    The variability patterns will have a magnified impact on wind generation if turbines are

    concentrated in the same geographic region. If turbines are all located in neighboring

    areas, they are all affected by the same weather patterns. In this manner, 100,000 MW ofwind output in the same region often acts as a single turbine 25. Aggregating wind

    turbines can turn sudden interruptions in output into a more manageable multihour

    downward ramp. This can be displayed in Figure 12.

    Figure 12 Impact of Aggregation in Texas Event26

    23 W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.

    Finley. Change in the Air.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 200

    24 W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.

    Finley. Change in the Air.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.

    25 M. Milligan, K. Porter, E. DeMeo, P. Denholm, H. Holttinen, B. Kirby, N. Miller, A. Mills, M.

    OMalley, M. Scheurger, and L. Soder. Wind Power Myths Debunked.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol.

    6, no. 6, pp 89-99. Nov/Dec 2009.

    19

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    In this figure, the output of one individual generating station drops rapidly, while the

    aggregated output of multiple turbines located throughout the state declines more slowly

    as the weather event passes over the region. Aggregating has also been shown in a

    recent study to decrease forecasting error by up to 50% if turbines have been located

    throughout a 750km region27. In the current situation, many turbines are located in

    remote areas and are serviced by only a few transmission lines. Often, these lines are at a

    lower voltage which carries more current & has more losses. Due to the great distance

    involved in distributing weaker voltages, voltage drop due to I^2R losses are critical.

    Such complexities display that most of the wind turbines impact on the grid has been

    lessened by technology and statistical analysis. As the United States moves more

    towards renewable energy, we will need to look to those governments which already have

    large quantities of wind power in place and learn from their experience.

    Hawaiian Experience

    The main island of Hawaii possesses one of the largest percentages of wind generation in

    the world. In fact, upwards of 40% of their power portfolio can come from renewable

    26 M. Milligan, K. Porter, E. DeMeo, P. Denholm, H. Holttinen, B. Kirby, N. Miller, A. Mills, M.

    OMalley, M. Scheurger, and L. Soder. Wind Power Myths Debunked.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol.

    6, no. 6, pp 89-99. Nov/Dec 2009.

    27 M. Milligan, K. Porter, E. DeMeo, P. Denholm, H. Holttinen, B. Kirby, N. Miller, A. Mills, M.

    OMalley, M. Scheurger, and L. Soder. Wind Power Myths Debunked.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol.

    6, no. 6, pp 89-99. Nov/Dec 2009.

    20

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    generation28. Since there is not many normal spinning sources present on the island, the

    resources they do have must remain online at all times to provide adequate inertia to

    preserve grid stability. As a result, as per Figure 13, excess power can often be produced

    in off-peak hours, requiring that wind generation be curtailed. Wind variability has also

    had impacts on the system frequency. Without wind, the system frequency deviated +/- .

    06 Hz, while on a mildly variable period with wind generation the system frequency can

    vary +/- .1 Hz29

    Figure 13 Hawaiian Power Distribution30

    To minimize system variability, ramp-rate limits of 2 MW per minute have been set for

    both upward and downward ramps. By controlling its ramp rate in these directions, the

    turbines are able to keep the power output relatively uniform. Problems were later

    encountered in the programming of the AGC system. For a while, efforts were made to

    make the system more responsible to variations in the overall system frequency.

    However, in affect the variations were made worse as the AGC made efforts to chase

    every random variation in frequency caused by wind turbines. As a result, generators

    would increase their output to match the drop-off in wind generation, while in the mean

    28 M. Matsurra. Island Breezes.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 59. Nov/Dec 2009.

    29 M. Matsurra. Island Breezes.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 60. Nov/Dec 2009.

    30 M. Matsurra. Island Breezes.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 61. Nov/Dec 2009.

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    time wind output picked up once again to its former levels. Such issues were resolved

    once the AGC system had been detuned to make it less reactive to variable changes in the

    system. However, with this modification, the overall system frequency can deviate +/- .2

    Hz before issuing commands to dispatchable units.

    Spinning reserves must still be present at all time in the system and are driven at any

    moment by the wind plant total output. Sustained ramping events and any frequency

    variations must all be accounted for in the scheduling of both available reserves and

    quick-starting generation. Figure 14 displays a ramping event experienced upon which

    diesel generation reserves were brought online to ride through a severe ramping event.

    As mentioned previously, these ramping down events can be very hard to forecast, thus

    quick-starting capacity can be crucial in order to preserve system integrity. As is the case

    with many other countries, the island of Hawaii is learning through experience to provide

    an example of system success.

    Figure 14 Hawaiian Wind Ramping Event31

    Wind Power in Spain

    Wind Power has dramatically increased in Spain due to strong local manufacturing as

    well as policy support with feed-in tariffs and low-interest loans32. In total, Spain

    receives around 11.5% of its generation from wind. For such a weakly interconnected

    31 M. Matsurra. Island Breezes.IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 61. Nov/Dec 2009.

    32 http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41329.pdf

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    system which possesses feeble ties to the European system, wind variability and

    forecasting plays a crucial role. Any imbalances in the system must be less than 1,300

    MW for ten minutes to prevent major system failure. Wind power has had the largest

    affect on the availability of spinning reserves in the system. Once day-ahead forecasting

    has been scheduled, the available reserve capacity is scheduled which should be available

    to balance any possible ramping events on the system. If there is a predicted lack of

    availability of spinning reserves, thermal users can be switched off in order to ensure that

    there is enough available generation to meet the most users load demands.

    Although wind has been widely used in Spain, there are still problems that will persist for

    long periods of time. Unlike the United States, Spain is essentially an island grid with

    very little interconnections to draw power from outside sources if required. In several

    situations, they have needed to shed wind load, while in one situation, the difference

    between real and scheduled wind production was greater than 7000 MW33. To cope with

    these issues, the Spanish Grid Operator, Red Electrica has established a Control Center

    for Renewable Energy to supervise and control generators in real time. Hydro-pump

    storage is also being developed as a method to cope with the overproduction of wind

    during several hours of the day. Interconnections have also been planned and are being

    developed to reinforce their ties with other countries as another outsource of excess wind,

    or to help during periods of low wind outputs. With the feed-in tariffs and other

    government-run programs, Spain is currently believed to be on track to be more than 40%

    renewable by 2020.

    Conclusion

    Despite a few growing pains, wind power in the United States will continue to grow and

    develop into a more reliable and clean source of power. Although initially facing crucial

    inherent difficulties such as voltage variation, frequency, and lack of proper forecasting

    tools, new technology has arisen which alleviates a majority of these concerns. Wind is

    inherently variable and thus can never be a base-loaded source of power, however, with

    the highly accurate commercial forecasting software available today, it can definitely

    help to meet the soon-to-be growing United States power demand. The evidence of the

    33 http://www.ree.es/ingles/publicaciones/pdf/030409_MIT_WindpowerdevelopmentinSpain.pdf

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    growth of recent forecasting tools can clearly be seen in the example of the Texas system

    emergency in February, as compared to the commercially forecasted April ramping

    event. Although large variations in wind will continue to have impacts on grid

    operations, allowing system operators adequate time to schedule available resources will

    alleviate the major concerns of variability. Luckily for the United States, lessons can be

    learned from Hawaii and Spain in regards to integration of wind resources into the power

    grid. Despite all the operational issues which must be resolved, the main issue that will

    hinder the usage of wind resources is the lack of transmission system capability. As

    discussed previously, wind turbines are often located in remote areas and thus

    interconnect at lower voltages and weaker transmission systems. Recent discussions of

    smart grid improvements may help to account for the variability of wind by fostering

    more interconnections and distribution of available generation. Perhaps one of the most

    important modifications that will be made will increase the voltage of the transmission

    lines entering the wind farm. By increasing the voltage, the voltage drop across the

    cables will be minimized. It will certainly be a learning experience in the United States

    as we move towards a less-predictable source of energy; however, with a few

    modifications, these additions appear quite feasible, especially given the current political

    climate.

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