Impact of Sustainable Intensification on Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL) Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, & Kurt Waldman Michigan State University Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Annual Review and Planning Meeting 15 July 2015 Mangochi, Malawi
24
Embed
Impact of Sustainable Intensification on Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL) Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, & Kurt Waldman Michigan State University.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Impact of Sustainable Intensification on Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL)
Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, & Kurt WaldmanMichigan State University
Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Annual Review and Planning Meeting15 July 2015
Mangochi, Malawi
SILL Project Objectives1. Provide an evidence base for linkages between field
and farm-scale sustainable intensification (SI) interventions and climate change mitigation
2. Provide recommendations to inform the design of an integrated framework for programming in Zambia
Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia
Sustainable Intensification Interventions
AgroforestryConservation Agriculture
Forest Conservation
Biodiversity / Wildlife
Conservation
Agricultural-Environmental Linkages
Participatory System Dynamics Modeling
Introductory workshop – generate causal loop diagrams Review literature and data sets Build national model in Vensim Participatory modeling workshop – refine parameters Build provincial-level model (Eastern and Lusaka)
Major Trends in Zambia
Relatively low population density Population growth
Projected to increase 10x by 2100 High rates of urbanization Deforestation (150,000—300,000 ha/year)
Population
Fuel
Food
Grassland
Forest
Agricultural
Decision-making
Wildlife populations
Model Structure
National Level Deforestation(baseline, 2010-2060)
14% loss18% loss
Deciduous and evergreen forest
20 M
17.5 M
15 M
12.5 M
10 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline
deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Model
Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought
deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought
Charcoal production and clearing for agriculture are both important drivers of deforestation Charcoal dominates in Lusaka Clearing for agriculture dominates currently in EP
Charcoal dominates both in the future Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural
population growth, not low yields/land abandonment
Charcoal production is driven by urban population growth and energy demand