Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Grégory Beaugrand CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICO Station Marine Wimereux Université des sciences et technologies de Lille 1 BP 80, 62930 Wimereux France Email: [email protected]Reykjavik, 12-14th March 2005
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Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic
Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic. Grégory Beaugrand. CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICO Station Marine Wimereux Université des sciences et technologies de Lille 1 BP 80, 62930 Wimereux France Email: [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic
Grégory Beaugrand
CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICOStation Marine Wimereux
Université des sciences et technologies de Lille 1BP 80, 62930 Wimereux
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Objectives of this talk
• To document responses of plankton to hydro-climatic forcing
• To show the potential consequences of climate-induced plankton changes for the structure and the functioning of the pelagic ecosystems, for higher trophic levels (Fish) and biogeochemical cycles
Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)Survey
Sir Alister Hardy
Herring Packers& Drifters
First tow September
1931
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
M e t r i d i a l u c e n sC e n t r o p a g e s t y p i c u s
C a l a n u s f i n m a r c h i c u s P a r a - P s e u d o c a l a n u s s p p .
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
M e t r i d i a l u c e n sC e n t r o p a g e s t y p i c u s
C a l a n u s f i n m a r c h i c u s P a r a - P s e u d o c a l a n u s s p p .
The CPR sampler
CPR sampling: 1946-2002
Information in the CPR database>400 species or taxa
Dinoflagellates Diatoms Copepods
108 taxa
Other zooplanktonMeroplankton
Euphausiids
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Large-scale climatic forcing
Climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
NAO (January to March)
1988
NAO
-0 .6
-0 .4
-0 .2
0
0 .2
0 .4
0 .6
EA (September to April)
1982
EA
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1950
2002
1962
1958
1954
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
EA - Jet (April to August)
1987
EA-jet
Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies (moving average)
Increase in sea surface temperature related positively to NHT anomalies
From Beaugrand et al. (2002). Science. 296: 1692-1694.
What kind of biological consequences are expected under climatic warming?
• Changes in the range and spatial distribution of species • Shifts in the location of biogeographical boundaries, provinces and biomes • Change in the phenology of species (e.g. earlier reproductive season)• Modification in dominance (e.g. a key species can be replaced by another one) • Change in diversity• Change in other key functional attributes for marine ecosystems• Change in structure and dynamics of ecosystem with possible regime shifts
Major impact for marine exploited resources and biogeo-chemical processes (e.g. sequestration of CO2 by the ocean)
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
1. Biogeographical shifts
Warm-temperate shelf- edge species
Mean number of species per association
Temperate shelf- edge species
Beaugrand et al. (2002) Science. Vol. 296. 1692-1694.
Cold-temperate (mixed water) species
Subarctic species
Mean number of species per associationBeaugrand et al. (2002) Science. Vol. 296. 1692-1694.
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
2. Changes in biodiversity
Long-term monthly changes in calanoid copepod diversityThe North Sea (north and central part)
Mean number of calanoid species per CPR sample
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98123456789
101112
11.522.533.544.55
Years
MONTHS
Line in black: warm-temperate speciesLine in red: temperate species
-10 -5 0 5 10
50
55
60
North Sea
France
Mean
num
ber of sp
ecies p
er CP
R sam
ple
Before 1980 After 1980
Statistical modelling the seasonal changes in diversity
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
r² = 0.93n = 540pACF <0.01
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3 4
Taxonomic diversity
Siz
e d
iver
sity
Relationships between taxonomic diversity and size diversity for calanoid copepods
Beaugrand et al. (in prep)
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
3. Relationships between changes in plankton and fish
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
0,50,55
0,6
0,65
0,7
0,75
0,8
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Beaugrand (2004) PROOCE
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Sec
ond
pri
ncip
al
com
pone
nt (
31.3
6%)
SS
T
(cen
tral
Nor
th S
ea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)
NH
T a
nom
alie
sM
ean
umb
er o
f sp
ecie
s pe
r as
sem
blag
e
Gadoid species (cod)
SST
NHT anomalies
plankton change-4
-2
0
2
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
N o m a tc h fo r a n y o f th e c a la n o id c o p e p o d a s se m b la g e s