1 Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load
Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load
Jan 03, 2016
Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load. Methodology. Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement January 1, 2006 – October 11, 2008 Summed cuts by Profile Type and WZone - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Impact of Hurricanes Edouard and Ike on ERCOT Load
2
Methodology
• Extracted the LSEGUFE cuts for the most recent settlement
• January 1, 2006 – October 11, 2008• Summed cuts by Profile Type and WZone• Estimated models for each PT and WZ
based on Channel 4 or higher settlement cuts (1-1-07 to 8-23-08)
• Generated model est. at the PT & WZ level up thru 10-11-08
• Summed estimates to the ERCOT total load level
• Compared summed estimates to GTOTUFE
3
Model Statistics• Stats at the Total Load Level:
– R-Square - .986– MAPE – 2.1%– MAD – 180 MWh
• Stats for IDR Coast Model:– R-Square - .891– MAPE – 2.65%– MAD – 31 MWh
• Stats for IDR Non Coast Model:– R-Square - .969– MAPE – 2.61%– MAD – 92 MWh
• Stats for NIDR Total Model:– R-Square - .989– MAPE – 2.49 %– MAD – 97 MWh
Coast NIDR model would not be informative since standard profiles do not reflect hurricane related reductions
4
5
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 27 Mon 28 Tue 29 Wed 30 Thu 31 Fri 01 Sat 02 Sun 03
MW
Time
July 27 - August 2 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
ERCOT Load - Week Before Edouard
July 27 – August 2, 2008MW
6
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 03 Mon 04 Tue 05 Wed 06 Thu 07 Fri 08 Sat 09 Sun 10
MW
Time
August 3 - 9 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
ERCOT Load - Week of Edouard
August 3 – August 9, 2008
Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45
Peak diff 1,682 MW (2.7%)
Daily diff 11.0 GWH (1.0%)
MW
7
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 10 Mon 11 Tue 12 Wed 13 Thu 14 Fri 15 Sat 16 Sun 17
MW
Time
August 10 - 16 2008ERCOT Load - Week After Edouard
August 10 – August 16, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
MW
8
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Sun 27 Mon 28 Tue 29 Wed 30 Thu 31 Fri 01 Sat 02 Sun 03
MW
Time
July 27 - August 2 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
IDR Coast Load - Week Before Edouard
July 27 – August 2, 2008MW
9
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Sun 03 Mon 04 Tue 05 Wed 06 Thu 07 Fri 08 Sat 09 Sun 10
MW
Time
August 3 - 9 2008
IDR Coast Load - Week of Edouard
August 3 – August 9, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45
Peak diff 529 MW (10.4%)
Daily diff 5.8 GWH (4.8%)
MW
10
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Sun 10 Mon 11 Tue 12 Wed 13 Thu 14 Fri 15 Sat 16 Sun 17
MW
Time
August 10 - 16 2008IDR Coast Load - Week After of Edouard
August 10 – August 16, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
MW
11
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
Sun 27 Mon 28 Tue 29 Wed 30 Thu 31 Fri 01 Sat 02 Sun 03
MW
Time
July 27 - August 2 2008IDR Non Coast Load - Week Before Edouard
July 27 – August 2, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
MW
12
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
Sun 03 Mon 04 Tue 05 Wed 06 Thu 07 Fri 08 Sat 09 Sun 10
MW
Time
August 3 - 9 2008
IDR Non Coast Load - Week of Edouard
August 3 – August 9, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45
Peak diff 490 MW (2.1%)
Daily diff 2.9 GWH (0.6%)
MW
13
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
Sun 10 Mon 11 Tue 12 Wed 13 Thu 14 Fri 15 Sat 16 Sun 17
MW
Time
August 10 - 16 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
IDR Non Coast Load - Week After Edouard
August 10 – August 16, 2008MW
14
0
10000
20000
30000
Sun 27 Mon 28 Tue 29 Wed 30 Thu 31 Fri 01 Sat 02 Sun 03
MW
Time
July 27 - August 2 2008Non IDR Load - Week Before Edouard
July 27 – August 2, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
MW
15
0
10000
20000
30000
Sun 03 Mon 04 Tue 05 Wed 06 Thu 07 Fri 08 Sat 09 Sun 10
MW
Time
August 3 - 9 2008Non IDR Load - Week Of Edouard
August 3 – August 9, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
Model Peak 8-4-08 16:45
Peak diff 662 MW (1.9%)
Daily diff 2.3 GWH (0.4%)
MW
NIDR Coast load reduction possible but not quantifiable
16
0
10000
20000
30000
Sun 10 Mon 11 Tue 12 Wed 13 Thu 14 Fri 15 Sat 16 Sun 17
MW
Time
August 10 - 16 2008
Non IDR Load - Week After Edouard
August 10 – August 16, 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
MW
17
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Sun 27 Mon 28 Tue 29 Wed 30 Thu 31 Fri 01 Sat 02 Sun 03
MWh
Time
July 27 - August 2 2008Percent Differences - Week Before Edouard
July 27 – August 2, 2008PERCENT
ERCOT IDR Coast IDR NonCoast NIDR
18
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Sun 03 Mon 04 Tue 05 Wed 06 Thu 07 Fri 08 Sat 09 Sun 10
MWh
Time
August 3 - 9 2008Percent Differences - Week Of Edouard
August 3 – August 9, 2008PERCENT
ERCOT IDR Coast IDR NonCoast NIDR
IDR COAST had largest difference of 21% on 8/5/08 and returned to predicted level on 8/8/08
Peak Day
19
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Sun 10 Mon 11 Tue 12 Wed 13 Thu 14 Fri 15 Sat 16 Sun 17
MWh
Time
August 10 - 16 2008Percent Differences - Week After Edouard
August 10 – August 16, 2008PERCENT
ERCOT IDR Coast IDR NonCoast NIDR
20
Edouard Conclusions• Ercot Load at model peak (8-4-08 16:45) was
reduced by about 1,682 MW as a result of Hurricane Edouard– IDR Coast: 529 MW– IDR NonCoast: 490 MW – NIDR: 662 MW
• Ercot Actual Load returned to predicted load levels on 8-6-08– IDR Coast actual load returned to predicted load
levels on 8-8-08• Total Ercot energy reduction about
23.1GWH as a result of Hurricane Edouard
21
22
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 31 Mon 01 Tue 02 Wed 03 Thu 04 Fri 05 Sat 06 Sun 07
MW
Time
August 31 - September 6 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
ERCOT Load - Week before Ike
August 31 – September 6, 2008MW
23
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 07 Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14
MW
Time
September 7 - 13 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
ERCOT Load – Ike Begins
September 7 – September 13, 2008
Week diff. 368.4 GWH (10.0%)
MW
24
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 14 Mon 15 Tue 16 Wed 17 Thu 18 Fri 19 Sat 20 Sun 21
MW
Time
September 14 - 20 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
ERCOT Load – Ike Restoration
September 14 – September 20, 2008MW
Week diff. 715.9 GWH (14.6%)
25
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 21 Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28
MW
Time
September 21 - 27 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
ERCOT Load - Ike Restoration Concludes
September 21 – September 27, 2008MW
Week diff. 293.8 GWH (5.0%)
26
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sun 28 Mon 29 Tue 30 Wed 01 Thu 02 Fri 03 Sat 04 Sun 05
MW
Time
September 28 - October 4 2008
Model Actual MW Diff
ERCOT Load - Week After Ike Restoration
September 28 – October 4, 2008MW
27
1,378 Total GWh lost due to Ike
Largest 1-Day loss: 206 GWh on 9-13-08
Largest 1-Interval loss: 10,716 MW on 9-13-08 17:45
ERCOT Total Daily Load - Actual vs Model During Hurricane Ike Timeperiod
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
9/10
/200
8
9/12
/200
8
9/14
/200
8
9/16
/200
8
9/18
/200
8
9/20
/200
8
9/22
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
9/26
/200
8
9/28
/200
8
Da
ily G
Wh
Model Estimate Actual Difference Cum Diff
28
For the 1-1-08 – 9-28-08 time period 1,000 GWh below Forecast (0.4%)
For the 9-1-08 – 9-28-08 time period 0.9 GWh above Forecast (0.04%)
Cumulative GWh DifferencesLong Term Forecast - Actual
-1,500
-1,000
-5000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,0003,500
4,000
4,500
1/1/
2008
1/31
/200
8
3/1/
2008
3/31
/200
8
4/30
/200
8
5/30
/200
8
6/29
/200
8
7/29
/200
8
8/28
/200
8
9/27
/200
8
GW
h D
iff
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Pc
t D
iff
GWh Difference Pct Diff
29
Ike Conclusions
• Ercot Load was reduced across the 9-10-08 to 9-28-08 time period by about 1,378 GWH as a result of Hurricane Ike
• Largest 1-Day loss:– 206 GWH on 9-13-08
• Ercot GWH load for the 1-1-08 to 9-28-08 time period is 0.4% under forecast in spite of hurricane impacts
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