Impact of Globalization on Intelligence: Context & Challenge National Academy for Political & Strategic Studies Santiago, Chile --- 25 November 2010 Robert.

Impact of Globalization on Intelligence: Context & Challenge

National Academy for Political & Strategic StudiesSantiago, Chile --- 25 November 2010

Robert David STEELE Vivas

Preface: Global Trends Defining the Intelligence Environment

Prefacio: Tendencias mundialesDefinición de Medio Ambiente de

Inteligencia

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Key Negative Trends• Collapse of complex societies: catastrophe from

disaster for lack of resilience & adaptation as well as corruption

• Acts of Man creating Acts of God: natural disasters will be more frequent & more severe as we cement more land

• Acceleration of Earth’s Demise: changes that used to take 10,000 years now take THREE years; absent Real Time Science and Real Time Public Policy (online, deliberative, transparent) we die

• Shock Capitalism continues to loot the Earth and has turned USA into a Third World country—UAE (Dubai) is the new Switzerland

• Political Corruption ascendant—44 dictators, both Republican and Democratic parties are “running on empty” and very corrupt, elites in towns across America have sold us out

Key Positive Trends• Wealth of networks: fortune at the bottom of the

pyramid, peace through connectivity, wealth from sharing information

• GreenMind: Biomimicry, beneficial bacteria, green chemistry,

• Moral capitalism: natural capitalism, green to gold, cradle to cradle, home rule, eat local, end of corporate personality

• Democratic Information: “true costs” at point of sale

• Left Hand of God: faith-based dialog and diplomacy, obvious need to end of our support to 42 of 44 dictators, shunning of cults

• Peer to Peer People Power: from the Tao of Democracy to localized Wisdom Councils to Blessed Unrest to the Clock of the Long Now.

Introduction: American Mistakes& A Universal Future

Introducción: Los errores de América y un futuro universal

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USA $75B/Year = 4% “At Best”

80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20%, if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge.

Three Eras of National Intelligence

Secret War (0001-1980+)

Spies, Covert Action

Strategic Analysis (1940 – 1980)

Analysts & Spies, Focus on Secrets

Smart Nation (1995 – Future)

Collective Intelligence, Global GameEight Tribes Sharing & Sense-Making

Theories for 21st Century Intelligence

Teorías de Inteligencia del Siglo 21

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Take back the power—Open Secrets now Open Data….If you read nothing else, read Chapter 15, “New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence”

Federal ReserveWorld BankIMFWTO

MICCGlobal Elites

TribesReligions

Hidden PowersPrivate Security

Policy/Threats

Poverty

Disease

Ecology

State War

Civil War

Genocide

Atrocities

Proliferation

Terrorism

Transnational Crime

Health

Economy

EducationEnergy

Diplom

acy

Family

Imm

igrationJusticeSecuritySocietyW

ater Major Players*

Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

Iran

Russia

Venezuela

Wild Cards

Agriculture

*Other than European Union (EU) and USA.

Mapping the Implications and Limitations of Globalized

Information

Mapeo de las implicaciones y limitaciones de la información

globalizada

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We Can Only “See” 2% of the Relevant Information

Most of What We See Are Lies, Distortions, and Propaganda,

INFORMATION OPERATIONS (IO): All Languages All the Time

Linear versus Diamond ParadigmRule 13: Cross-Fertilization Matters More

CONSUMER CONSUMER

ANALYST

ANALYST

COLLECTOR

COLLECTOR

SOURCE SOURCE

Intelligence from Open Sources in Time of Globalization

Inteligencia de fuentes abiertas en tiempo de globalización

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Open LibraryOpen Schools

Open Source Intelligence

Open BordersOpen BusinessOpen CarryOpen CommunicationsOpen CultureOpen GovernmentOpen HardwareOpen IntelligenceOpen LibraryOpen MoneyOpen NetworksOpen SchoolsOpen SearchOpen SkiesOpen SocietyOpen SoftwareOpen SpaceOpen Spectrum……Open Everything

Open BordersOpen Skies

Open Source Software

Open CommunicationsOpen Networks

Open Society

Open Spectrum

Open MoneyOpen Search

Open BusinessOpen Hardware

Open CultureOpen Space

Open GovernmentOpen Carry

OSINT Utility at Four Levels

Strategic Planning

• History• Context

Operational Coordination

• Current Awareness• Key Personalities/Motivators

Tactical Employment

• Imagery & Image Maps• Translation Support

Acquisition Design

• Strategic Generalizations• Critical Technologies

Four Data Quadrants

BIG DATA• NSA-NGA• SAIC• HARRIS• NG-MS

DISTRIBUTED DATA• Intelink• ARDA• ITIC• JHU/APL

SE

CR

ET

BIG DATA• UN, NGOs• NASA, GeoEye• Health Systems• LEXIS-NEXIS

NO

T S

EC

RE

TDISTRIBUTED DATA• CISCO• Google/Libraries• Amazon• Facebook

The Global Tribes of Intelligence

Las tribus Mundial de la Inteligencia

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Eight Intelligence Tribes

GOVERNMENTMILITARY LAW ENFORCEMENT

COMMERCE

CIVIL SOCIETY MEDIA

NON-PROFITNON-GOVT

ACADEMIC/EDUCATION

Secrets

"Intelligence"

"Protected"

Open

Targeting

Signals

Imagery

Order of Battle

Mapping

Undercover

Investigation

Privacy

Metrics

Client Information

Pricing Information

Cost Information

External Information

Secret

Sensitive

Private

Open

Secret

Sensitive

Private

Open

Secret

Sensitive

Private

Open

GOV MIL LEA BUS ACAD NGO-Media CIVIL

Seven Tribes of Intelligence (Eight if NGO-Media Separated)

Three Views on the Nature of Information (Red Secret, Green Open)

WE THE MILITARY MUST LEAD THE WAY IN TRANSFORMING INTELLIGENCE

Government “Intelligence” Is Inside Out and Upside DownUsing Wrong End of the very expensive telescope

GovernmentForeignState/ProvinceCounty/District

CommercialMultinationalsNational ChainsSmall Business

Civil SocietyCitizen AdvocacyLabor Unions Religions

AcademiaHumanitiesSciencesSocial Sciences

Law EnforcementEUROPOLINTERPOLUNASUR?

MediaInternet/BlogOld PrintOld Broadcast

MilitaryOwnAlliedCoalition

Non-GovernmentalCharitiesFoundationsInternational Organizations

YOUR ORGANIZATION

SECRETSOURCES

&METHODS

OPEN SOURCES

&METHODS

Creating a Smart Nation

MILITARY

GOVERNMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT

COMMERCE

ACADEMIC

CIVIL SOCIETY

MEDIANGO

Creating the Virtual Intelligence Cloud of Clouds

Creación de la Nube de las Nubes

de Inteligencia Virtual

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Multinational Multiagency Information-Sharing &

Sense-Making

Múltiples agencias multinacionales Intercambio de información y

Sentido de decisiones

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UNASUR M4IS2

MultinationalMultiagencyMultidisciplinaryMultidomain(M4)Information-Sharing&Sense-Making(IS2)

M – Mass – Concentrate combat power & determine time and place

Mass the aggregate common sense of the public, sharing information & wisdom

O – Objective – Direct every military operation against a clearly defined decisive and obtainable objective

Objective: the collective good achieved through appreciative inquiry and sustainable precisely because it reflects group consensus

O – Offensive - move faster than the enemy (get inside their Observe, Orient, Decide, Act or OODA Loop).

Openness is the means of achieving public accountability through transparency, avoiding corruption and optimizing wealth creation

S – Surprise – Strike the enemy at a time, a place, and in a manner for which he is unprepared

Surprise is for the stupid. Cast a wide net, put enough eyes and ears on it and no bug (or corrupt action) is invisible

E – Economy of Force – Allocate minimum combat power to secondary efforts

Expansion of Force: here comes everybody, an Army of Davids, the network is the computer

M – Maneuver – Place the enemy in a position of disadvantage through flexible application of combat power

Maneuver to have no enemies but instead to create infinite stabilizing wealth and robust sustainable communities at peace

U – Unity of Command – For every objective, ensure unity of effort under one commander

Unity of Purpose with all groups and at all levels is the means to assure peace/prosperity

S – Security – Be on guard at all times against an unexpected attack from the enemy

Security “just in case” is expensive and often counterproductive—educating all is best path

S – Simplicity – Prepare clear, uncomplicated plans, issue clear concise orders

Sensibility is the root of all good – if it makes sense others will agree, if not, reconsider

Chile and the Future of Intelligence in the Americas &

in the Southern Hemisphere

Chile y el futuro de la Inteligencia en las Américas

y en el hemisferio sur

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1

2

PRACTICE ON PERU, BOLIVIA, & SOUTH PACIFIC—All Eight Tribes for Three Months

Next, Focus All Eight Tribes on the Southern Hemisphere

A

Poverty

Agriculture & Water

Immigration

Education

Economy

InfectiousDisease

Environmental Degradation

Corruption & Crime

Threats to Humanity

True Costs Known

HealthyPolicies

Peace &Prosperity

ProliferationTerrorism

State & Civil War

Genocide& OtherAtrocities

Diplomacy

Family & Society

HealthJustice & Security

Cre

ativ

e C

omm

ons

Cop

yrig

htE

arth

Int

ellig

ence

Net

wor

k

Energy

12

3

4-5

6-7

10

9 8

Figure 14: Global Range of Gifts Table Illustrated

All those with a need, however miniscule

All t

hose

with

som

ethi

ng to

giv

e Time & Space Relations

Cluster of Food Need Over Time

Powered by Zero Waste Mind-Sets, Enabled by Ubiquitous Information Access

Benefit #1: On Demand Precision Giving Benefit #2: Elimination of Overhead

Benefit #3: Harnesses Giving of Billion Individuals Who Do Not Give Now

Cluster of Medical Needs

Peer to peer giving

Cluster of Clothing Need

Harmonized Giving

Organize

d Givi

ng

Time-Phased Harmonized Giving

Peacekeeping Intelligence 21: Influence How OTHERS Spend

Wks, Mos, Yrs, Decades

Cell Phones & Call CentersOne Each: Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Russia

34 core languages right away, the other 150 within 3 years

Create the Southern Hemisphere Intelligence Network for

Peace & Prosperity

Crear la Red de Inteligencia del Hemisferio Sur paraPaz y Prosperidad

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Need Four Forces

Regional Information Center

Deputy for CounterintelligenceColombia

Deputy for Covert ActionVenezuela

Chief of CenterChile

OSINTHUMINTIMINTSIGINT

DigitizationTranslationVisualizationAnalytic SupportSecurity Support

WarningEstimativeCountriesIssues

Deputy for CollectionArgentina

Deputy for ProcessingBrazil

Deputy for AnalysisUruguay

UN Field ElementMultinational Decision-Support Center

With military as hub, get a grip on all information in South America

MDSC

Directly responsive country’s secret intelligence needsDirectly supportive of UN/NGO operations in South AmericaProvides decision-support, predictive analysis to all eight tribes

New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence

Nuevas reglas para el nuevo arte de la Inteligencia

EpilogueEpílogo

001 Decision-Support is the Raison D'être

002 Value-Added Comes from Analysis, Not Secret Sources

003 Global Coverage Matters More

004 Non-Traditional Threats Are of Paramount Importance

005 Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant

006 Source Balance Matters More

007 "Two Levels Down“

008 Processing Matters More, Becomes Core Competency

009 Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental

010 Geospatial and Time Tagging is Vital

011 Global Open Source Benchmarking

012 Counterintelligence Matters More

013 Cross-Fertilization Matters More

014 Decentralized Intelligence Matters More

015 Collaborative Work and Informal Communications Rise

016 New Value is in Content + Context + Speed

017 Collection Based on Gaps versus Priorities

018 Collection Doctrine Grows in Sophistication

019 Citizen "Intelligence Minutemen" are Vital

020 Production Based on Needs vs. Capabilities

021 Strategic Intelligence Matters More

022 Budget Intelligence Is Mandatory

023 Public Intelligence Drives Public Policy

024 Analysts are Managers

025 New Measures of Merit

026 Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing is Vital

http://www.phibetaiota.net

http://www.tinyurl.com/SteeleCHILE(Briefing with Notes Online in English & Spanish)