Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Some Economic and Financial Egyptian Indicators.

Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Some Economic and Financial

Egyptian Indicators

Monthly indicatorsCPI and PPI reflect the global economic and financial crises impacts specially PPI which show a negative sign as a result of crude oil price deterioration . On the other hand CPI reflects the government efforts to lower inflation rate from the highest level 23.6% in Aug. 2008 to 13.5% Feb. 2009

Monthly indicators (cont.) Growth rate of liquidity reflects that conservative actions taken by Central Bank of Egypt helped to contain the effect of the first wave of the global crises . From Oct. 2008 ,domestic liquidity growth rate reached around 15% and declined to 9.5% in Jan. 2009.

Change in the Egyptian Exchange index (CASE 30) reflect the recognized effect of global crises as the index shows lowest level in Feb. 2009 due to the decline of foreign investment in Egypt as investors tried to support their financial position in their home countries.

Monthly Indicators

Annual Inflation Rate(percentage change )

13.5

23.6

-7.6

33.8

-8.0-3.02.07.0

12.017.022.027.032.037.0

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug

-07

Sep-

07O

ct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8A

pr-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8A

ug-0

8Se

p-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

CPI PPI

Price Indices Inflation Rate For Both CPI & PPI

Source : CAPMAS

Reverse Trend of Inflation of PPI

Producers Price Index ( PPI) 2004/2005 33.8

-8.0

-3.0

2.0

7.0

12.0

17.0

22.0

27.0

32.0

37.0

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Sep-

07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep-

08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

-7.00

-5.00

-3.00

-1.00

1.00

3.00

5.00

7.00

Monthly growth rate(R.Scale)

Annual growth rate(L.Scale)

Monthly Indicators Source : CAPMAS

Growth Rate of M0 & M1 & M2Monthly Indicators Source : CBE

Some Main Macroeconomic Indecators

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0

Jan-

2007

Feb-

2007

Mar

-200

7

Apr

-200

7

May

-200

7

Jun-

2007

Jul-2

007

Aug

-200

7

Sep-

2007

Oct

-200

7

Nov

-200

7

Dec

-200

7

Jan-

2008

Feb-

2008

Mar

-200

8

Apr

-200

8

May

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Jul-2

008

Aug

-200

8

Sep-

2008

Oct

-200

8

Nov

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Jan-

2009

Gro

wth

rate

M0 M1 M2

Change of the Egyptian Exchange Index (CASE 30)Egyptian Exchange Index case 30

9390

.9

8687

.8

7749

8244

.3

7803

.4

9721

.7

1054

9.7

1031

8.1

1133

5.2

1135

7.4

1178

6.5

1105

7.3

9827

.3

9251

.2

8449

.6

7059

.2

4716

.3

4205

.9

4596

.5

3874

.9

3597

.6

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Jun-

2007

Jul-2

007

Aug

-200

7

Sep-

2007

Oct

-200

7

Nov

-200

7

Dec

-200

7

Jan-

2008

Feb-

2008

Mar

-200

8

Apr

-200

8

May

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Jul-2

008

Aug

-200

8

Sep-

2008

Oct

-200

8

Nov

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Jan-

2009

Feb-

2009

Cas

e 30

Egyptian Exchange Index case 30

Monthly Indicators Source : Egyptian Exchange

Quarterly indicatorsQuarterly indicators reflect the impact of global crises on some component of balance of payments as follows :-Trade balance fell to its record deficit in 2nd quarter of 2008/2009 of 9% compared with pervious one.-Exports proceeds declined about 33% in2nd quarter compared to 1st quarter of 2008/2009

Quarterly indicators (cont.)• petroleum exports dropped sharply 54.5%

from 1st to 2nd quarter of 2008/2009- Net portfolio investment in Egypt declined to

the lowest level in second quarter 2008/2009 compared with 4th quarter 2007/2008 (from -22.9 to -3902.4 US$ mn) due to decrease of the foreign investments.

• Overall balance reversed from 459 US $ mn to -1005.8 US$ mn

Balance of Payments

Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Trade Balance

-7.0-6.6

-7.6

-5.5

-6.1

-5.2

-5.6

-4.0

-10.0

-9.0

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

Q32

006-

2007

Q42

006-

2007

Q12

007-

2008

Q22

007-

2008

Q32

007-

2008

Q42

007-

2008

Q12

008-

2009

Q22

008-

2009

Balance of Payments (contd.)

EXPORTS

5433.4

6119 5989.87113.3 7734.7 8518 8162.9

5232.5

2269.9 2781.5 2522.93498.6 3898.7 4552.4 4109.4 1871.4

100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

Q320

06-

2007

Q420

06-

2007

Q120

07-

2008

Q22

007-

2008

Q320

07-

2008

Q42

007-

2008

Q120

08-

2009

Q22

008-

2009

US$

mn

Export Proceeds Petroleum Exports

Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Balance of Payments (contd.)Portfolio Investment in Egypt Net

-3902.4

383.2-22.9

-3484.9

171.6-1165.2

-1430.4

-303.5

-5000-4000

-3000-2000

-10000

1000

Q32

006-

2007

Q42

006-

2007

Q12

007-

2008

Q22

007-

2008

Q32

007-

2008

Q42

007-

2008

Q12

008-

2009

Q22

008-

2009

US

$ m

nQuarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Balance of Payments (contd.)Overall Balance

1828.3

1936.1

-1005.8

459

505.6

1150.4

2169.7

206.8

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Q32006-2007

Q42006-2007

Q12007-2008

Q22007-2008

Q32007-2008

Q42007-2008

Q12008-2009

Q22008-2009

US$

mn

Quarterly Indicators Source : CBE

Annual indicators• Annual growth rate of GDP is expected to

decline from around 7.0% ( average of the last tree years )to about 4.8% in 2008/2009

• The growth rate of some key sectors showed a decrease during 2008/2009 . restaurants &hotel sector declined sharply to 0.6% in 2008/2009 compared with 15.6 in 2007/2008

Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators

4

5

6

7

8

2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Annua real growth rate of GDP at Factor Cost Annua real growth rate of GDP at Market PriceAnnua real growth rate of Total Domistic production

Annual Indicators Source : MOP

Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators

Annual Indicators Source : MOP

Annual Real Growth Rates In Some Sectors

05

1015

202530

2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009

Manufacturing Construction Financial Restaurants & Hotels