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Impact of FDI in India

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    Impact of Foreign Direct Investmentin India

    G Bharathi Kamath*

    * Assistant Professor, The Icfai Business School, Mangalore, India. E-mail: [email protected]

    The purpose of the paper is to estimate and analyze the impact of Foreign DirectInvestment (FDI) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and exports in India for thepost-liberalization period (1991-2005). The relevant data is collected for a 15-yearperiod from 1991-2005 from various published sources such as World InvestmentReport (WIR) and Secretariat for Industrial Assistance (SIA). The data is then analyzedusing simple linear regression analysis to find the impact of FDI on various variables.Growth rates are evaluated and trends are analyzed using various tools. This study

    establishes the relationship between the FDI inflows and exports and GDP in theIndian economy. A greater inflow of foreign capital has lead to growth in the exportsof goods and services and also growth of the economy over the period of study. Theseresults have great policy implications giving a direction to the policymakers that furtherliberalization attempts can be made without apprehensions about its impact on theoverall economic growth and balance of trade.

    Introduction

    Since the end of World War II, economists have pointed to the growing interdependence

    among countries in the world economy. This trend of interdependence has seen exponential

    growth. Since late 1980s till date, the growth of FDI has been one of the most debated and

    significant economic developments.

    In Asia, FDI has increased significantly over the past two decades. However, it has been

    concentrated in a few countries. In the early 1990s, seven East Asian countriesChina, Korea,

    Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailandreceived more than 60% of the

    FDI inflows compared to the other countries in Asia. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and

    China) report states that India is going to be one of the most popular destinations for FDI fromacross the globe. However, the preliminary question is whether this inflow is going to lead to

    any growth in the domestic economy and exports; if yes, how much? and will it be significant

    enough to drive further FDI inside the economy?

    Relevance of FDI

    Foreign direct investment in the developing countries dates back to the 19th century. During

    the colonial and neocolonial period, it was concentrated in export-oriented mineral and

    agricultural production and in public utilities. However, there were economic and political

    opportunities to foreign investment in the colonial countries. There was growing opposition to

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    investment from abroad in Canada and Australia in the 1920s and 1930s. The same was true

    in Europe in the 1950s when American inflows were at their peak and European outflows were

    still negligible. Japan simply kept foreign investors out (Billerbeck and Yasugi, 1978).

    In the 1950s, after the end of World War II, FDI from the industrialized countries to

    developing countries began to flow again. By the end of 1960s, average annual flows to

    developing countries, including reinvested earnings, were $3 bn. By 1975, the rate of investment

    accelerated and reached $10 bn (Billerbeck and Yasugi, 1978). FDI inflows more than doubled

    in nominal terms between 1975 and 1985, attaining a peak in 1981 and rising thereafter at an

    annual average rate of 43%, to reach a record high level of about $215 bn in 1990 (Bhalla,

    1994).

    Increases in FDI inflows exceeded the growth in nominal value of world GDP and

    international trade, which expanded by around 3.5% and 7% respectively in 2006

    (WIR, 1997).

    Definition of FDI

    Foreign direct investment is defined as an investment involving a long-term business relationship

    and reflecting a lasting interest and control of resident entity in one economy (foreign direct

    investor or parent enterprise) in an enterprise resident in an economy other than that of the

    foreign direct investor (FDI enterprise or affiliate enterprise or foreign affiliate). Foreign direct

    investment implies that the investor exerts a significant degree of influence on the management

    of the enterprise resident in the other economy. Such investment involves both the initial

    transactions between the two entities and subsequent transactions between them and amongforeign affiliates, both incorporated and unincorporated. Foreign direct investments may be

    undertaken by individuals as well as business entities (WIR, 1997). The component included

    to account the FDI varies from country to country.

    Theoretical Background

    There are various theoretical foundations that discuss the FDI:

    Structuralist Paradigm

    Foreign investment is to be welcomed and actually encouraged through tax concessions, etc.

    as a source of foreign finance and technology. However, for Raul Prebisch,

    such investment should flow into the branches of production in which it is most needed

    (Hunt, 1989).

    Overlapping Generations Model

    The Overlapping Generations (OG) model of long run growth presents a somewhat different

    perspective on the effects of foreign investment. This model provides a basic lesson: foreign

    investment makes the future generations of the capital-importing country better off and thefuture generations of the capital-exporting country worse off (Bhalla, 1994).

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    What happens if there is foreign investment? Interest rates rise in the capital-exporting

    country and fall in the capital-importing country. The key fact is the wages of the present

    generation depend on the capital stock inherited from previous generations. Since each member

    of the present generation earns his or her wages in the first period and retires in the second

    period, he or she will be made better off by a higher interest rate on savings and worse off by

    a lower interest rate on savings. The wage rate is fixed. Therefore, since investment lowersinterest rates in the capital-importing region in the OG model, the present generation is made

    worse off. Interest rates rise in the capital-exporting region, therefore, the present generation in

    that region is better off (Roy, 1979).

    OLI Paradigm

    The most recent of them all is the one given by Dunning popularly known as Eclectic or OLI

    paradigm. It discusses about Ownership (O), Location (L), and Internalization (I) advantages

    of a countrys firms while differentiating along the countrys course of economic development

    (Dunning and Narula, 1998). According to this theory, three conditions have to be fulfilled in

    order for a firm to become a multinational: the Ownership (O) advantages must be such as to

    make it profitable for the firm to relocate abroad its own production (or at least part of it);

    there must be some Localization (L) advantage, typically linked to the host countrys specific

    characteristics; and it must be more convenient for the firm to manage its advantages Internally

    (I) rather than trade them through the market. This appears to be a very useful paradigm in

    explaining the different characteristics that need to be fulfilled for a firm to become a

    multinational and also helps in developing further empirical studies on this topic (Soci, 2002).

    Macro Perspective

    National Income (GDP) is universally employed and is generally a useful measure for economic

    growth. A variety of policies for promoting growth can be suggested. Let us start from a simple

    equation for GDP.

    GDP= C+ I + G + (X M)

    where,

    C = Consumption

    I = Investment

    G = Government Expenditure

    X = Exports

    M = Imports

    This leads to the following alternatives (Rao, 1995).

    1. Maximize Cthrough tax reduction (supply-side economics).

    2. Activate Iboth domestic and foreign.

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    3. Stimulate GKeynesian economics (may lead to heavy budget deficits).

    4. IncreaseXOutward looking policies (aggressive East Asian economies).

    5. Contain MImport substitution (some of the third world economies including

    India till recently).

    Combination of first, second and fourth alternatives is suggested for a segmented economy

    to augment development (Chenery and Ahulwalia, 1974). India seems to have been following

    this path since mid-1980s. In the structural adjustment program, exports and foreign capital

    started to play a prominent role.

    Review of Earlier Works

    Foreign capital inflows play an important role in supplementing and complementing resources

    of developing countries in their efforts towards higher levels of development. The role offoreign capital has been emphasized in literature on economic development; for instance,

    the Gap models (Hunt, 1989) and the Kindleberger-Hymer approach to FDI.

    It was Abba Learner who discussed at length about the inflow of foreign capital (Lerner,

    1944). The general effects of foreign investment on development received a good treatment in

    the works of Mac Dougall (Dougall, 1966). The work of Kemp Murray (Murray, 1960) can also

    be mentioned in this respect. However, the question of the possible adverse effects of foreign

    capital on the levels of domestic savings was first raised by Trygve Haavelmo (Haavelmo,

    1963). Following Haavelmo, many evinced interest in studies on the relationship between

    foreign capital and economic growth in developing countries. There was a proliferation of

    studies on this and the works of Lee, Rana and Iwasaki in the context of Asia is important (Lee

    et al., 1986).

    One of the earliest studies on the relationship between FDI and growth is that of Papanek

    (Papanek, 1973). Among country-specific studies, the work of Gustav Ranis and Chi Shive on

    Taiwan (Ranis and Schive, 1985)is very exhaustive. In 1970, Robert Aliber raised many

    theoretical issues like whether FDI is a currency area or customs area phenomena (Aliber,1970). W B Reddaways analysis (Reddaway, 1968) of the influence of FDI on Balance of

    Payments (BOP) is a landmark study in the literature on FDI. A more general theoryoriginally

    propounded in a thesis at MIT by Stephen Hymeris that direct investment belongs more to

    the theory of industrial organization than to the theory of international capital movements.

    Hymers work emphasizes that firms engaged in direct investment have monopolistic elements

    and the perfect competition model is not relevant. To the literature on FDI, the greatest

    contribution was made by Charles, P Kindleberger (Kindleberger, 1958 and 1968). His influence

    on subsequent works is so profound that his analysis and approach to FDI along with that ofStephen Hymer is well-known as Kindleberger-Hymer Approach.

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    However, there are specific studies that help in understanding the FDI drivers at a regional

    level and also have direct use in policymaking (Na and Lightfoot, 2006). Others talk about

    development of successful FDI strategies at national level (Musila and Sigue Simon, 2006).

    Some simplistic papers look at just the trends of FDI in various countrieswhat they expect to

    measure is the general perspective without exploring in detail what are the implications of

    these investments on the national growth and other parameters. There are studies pertaining tofirm-level analysis of the determinants (Pantelidis and Dimitrios, 2005) and one paper deals

    with specific determinants of US FDI in India (Balasundram and Chatterjee, 1998).

    Objectives of the Present Study

    The main objectives of the present work are:

    To examine trends in FDI in India; and

    To analyze the impact of FDI on exports and GDP.

    Methodology

    Period of Study

    The period of analysis for the present study is 1986-87 to 2005-06. Depending on the availability

    of the data, the analysis is confined to this broad period. However, the focus of analysis is

    mostly on post-liberalization period of 1991-2005 and 2005-06, as FDI data is consistently

    available since this period.

    Hypothesis

    One of the benefits of FDI is that it is likely to transfer modern technology to the domestic

    economy. As a result, the products produced in the domestic economy would become

    internationally competitive. The inflow of FDI is likely to promote the exports. Thus, both

    GDP and exports are expected to be positively influenced by FDI.

    Sources of Data

    The data for this work are taken from a variety of sources. The publications of SIA of Ministry

    of Industry, Government of India are the main sources of information for data on FDI flows,country-wise break-up and sector-wise break-up. The RBI online database on the Indian economy

    is another major source of data. Data on aggregate FDI is taken from World Investment Report

    of United Nations and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Annual Report.

    Techniques of Estimation

    Simple techniques like percentages and growth rates are employed to analyze data. However,

    for capturing the impact of FDI on exports, imports, and GDP, the paper has used mean,

    standard deviation, and simple regression analysis.

    Y = a + bX

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    where,

    Y = Dependent variable.

    a = Intercept of the line on y-axis.

    b = Regression coefficient

    X = Independent variable.

    Thus, the following three simple linear regression equations would be analyzed to study

    the impact of FDI on exports, imports and GDP.

    X = a1+ b

    1FDI ...(1)

    M = a2+ b

    2FDI ...(2)

    Y = a3+ b

    3FDI ...(3)

    where,

    X = Exports

    M = Imports

    Y = GDP

    And a and b are the coefficients of FDI.

    All the related statistics are estimated for analysis.

    Analysis

    In this section a detailed analysis of the impact of FDI on exports and GDP along with the

    analysis of trends of FDI in India is attempted.

    Analysis of Trends

    Foreign investment plays an important part in economic development and is often an essential

    element in economic transformation of developing countries. As can be seen from Table 1,

    the flow of FDI across the world has seen a tremendous growth over the period of 20 years.

    This reflects the fact that most economies are moving from relatively closed economies to

    open economies. Also, it is positive to notice that the inflows are increasing in the developing

    countries over the period. The share of developed countries was almost three-fourth in 1985,

    and it remains at 60% of the world flows in 2005. Europe and the US dominated the scenario

    for a very long time; but their share was on a decline in the recent past. On the other hand, the

    share of developing economies has seen a gradual and healthy increase over the period;

    it increased from a meager one-fourth to a dominating 36%. However, what needs to be noted

    here is that there is no single country which attracts as big an investment as developed economiesdo. However, Asian economies are doing better than Latin American countries and Africa.

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    Table1:InwardFDIFlows,b

    yHostRegionandEconomy

    ,1985-2005

    1985

    1990

    1991

    1995

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    20

    01

    2002

    2003

    2

    004

    2005

    World

    57959.41

    201613.85

    15480

    1.20

    340336.10

    489709.18

    712031.96

    1099919.16

    1409567.77

    83224

    7.63

    617731.56

    557869.01

    7107

    54.69

    916276.63

    Deve

    loped

    42687.19

    164807.82

    11212

    8.02

    219030.98

    284252.11

    506205.77

    851182.62

    1133683.25

    59927

    1.78

    441237.87

    358538.84

    3961

    44.95

    542311.83

    Economies

    %of

    World

    73.65

    81.74

    7

    2.43

    64.36

    58.05

    71.0

    9

    77.39

    80.43

    72.01

    71.43

    64.27

    55.74

    59.19

    Europe

    16706.33

    97043.84

    7922

    5.38

    133650.56

    153832.74

    296663.49

    522511.80

    721613.84

    39314

    2.90

    314168.02

    274095.48

    2176

    95.91

    433628.10

    %of

    World

    28.82

    48.13

    5

    1.18

    39.27

    31.41

    41.6

    6

    47.50

    51.19

    47.24

    50.86

    49.13

    30.63

    47.33

    Unite

    d

    5668.30

    30461.12

    1484

    6.17

    19969.45

    33226.59

    74321.33

    87978.94

    118764.29

    5262

    3.24

    24029.45

    16777.91

    562

    14.07

    164529.69

    Kingd

    om

    %of

    World

    9.78

    15.11

    9.59

    5.87

    6.78

    10.4

    4

    8.00

    8.43

    6.32

    3.89

    3.01

    7.91

    17.96

    North

    21862.41

    56004.28

    2567

    9.96

    68026.77

    114925.02

    197243.32

    308119.39

    380798.00

    18712

    4.00

    96612.50

    60761.00

    1239

    10.40

    133264.90

    America

    %of

    World

    37.72

    27.78

    1

    6.59

    19.99

    23.47

    27.7

    0

    28.01

    27.02

    22.48

    15.64

    10.89

    17.43

    14.54

    US

    20490.00

    48422.00

    2279

    9.00

    58772.00

    103398.00

    174434.0

    0

    283376.00

    314007.00

    15946

    1.00

    74457.00

    53146.00

    1223

    77.00

    99443.00

    %of

    World

    35.35

    24.02

    1

    4.73

    17.27

    21.11

    24.5

    0

    25.76

    22.28

    19.16

    12.05

    9.53

    17.22

    10.85

    Other

    4118.44

    11759.71

    722

    2.68

    17353.65

    15494.36

    12298.9

    6

    20551.43

    31271.40

    1900

    4.88

    30457.35

    23682.35

    545

    38.63

    -24581.17

    Deve

    loped

    Economies

    %of

    World

    7.11

    5.83

    4.67

    5.10

    3.16

    1.73

    1.87

    2.22

    2.28

    4.93

    4.25

    7.67

    2.68

    Deve

    loping

    15257.23

    36731.12

    4243

    8.66

    116502.03

    193355.99

    195174.25

    238266.00

    266822.92

    22144

    7.25

    163582.61

    175138.03

    2750

    32.42

    334285.44

    Economies

    %of

    World

    26.32

    18.22

    2

    7.41

    34.23

    39.48

    27.4

    1

    21.66

    18.93

    26.61

    26.48

    31.39

    38.70

    36.48

    Africa

    2443.32

    2825.62

    353

    9.91

    5641.80

    10948.26

    9279.89

    12454.91

    9577.33

    19894.32

    12999.27

    18512.52

    171

    98.74

    30671.96

    %of

    World

    4.22

    1.40

    2.29

    1.66

    2.24

    1.30

    1.13

    0.68

    2.39

    2.10

    3.32

    2.42

    3.35

    Latin

    7302.60

    10566.92

    1427

    6.25

    30250.82

    76259.00

    90311.63

    114107.95

    108992.60

    8939

    7.04

    54339.62

    46136.92

    1005

    05.86

    103662.63

    America

    andthe

    Carib

    bean

    %of

    World

    12.60

    5.24

    9.22

    8.89

    15.57

    12.68

    10.37

    7.73

    10.74

    8.80

    8.27

    14.14

    11.31

    (Con

    td...)

    (inUS$mn)

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    Table1:InwardFDIFlows,b

    yHostRegionandEconomy

    ,1985-2005

    1985

    1990

    1991

    1995

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    20

    01

    2002

    2003

    2

    004

    2005

    Asiaa

    nd

    5511.30

    23338.58

    24622.50

    80609.40

    106148.73

    95582.7

    3

    111703.14

    148252.99

    11215

    5.89

    96243.72

    110488.58

    1573

    27.82

    199950.85

    Oceania

    %ofWorld

    9.51

    11.58

    15.91

    23.69

    21.68

    13.4

    2

    10.16

    10.52

    1

    3.48

    15.58

    19.81

    22.14

    21.82

    Asia

    5421.41

    22642.36

    24154.07

    79918.01

    105772.63

    95249.4

    6

    111285.32

    147992.76

    11204

    4.89

    96124.85

    110136.74

    1566

    22.32

    199553.64

    %ofWorld

    9.35

    11.23

    15.60

    23.48

    21.60

    13.3

    8

    10.12

    10.50

    1

    3.46

    15.56

    19.74

    22.04

    21.78

    South

    -East

    15.00

    74.91

    234.51

    4803.09

    12101.08

    10651.9

    4

    10470.54

    9061.61

    11528.61

    12911.09

    24192.15

    395

    77.32

    39679.36

    Europ

    eand

    theCommon-

    wealt

    hof

    Indep

    endent

    States

    (CIS)

    %ofWorld

    0.03

    0.04

    0.15

    1.41

    2.47

    1.5

    0

    0.95

    0.64

    1.39

    2.09

    4.34

    5.57

    4.33

    (...

    con

    td)

    Source:WorldInvestm

    entReport2006(percentagesestimated).

    FDI is also seen to increase as a

    percentage of the GDP of the economies.

    On the whole, FDI forms around 22% of

    the GDP of all the economies of the world.

    As shown in Table 2, the developed countries

    are moving closely with the world average.Whereas, the developing economies are

    improving very fast and their share is steady

    in the recent years. United Kingdom among

    the developed economies and Hong Kong,

    China in the developing economies are the

    top destinations of FDI (Table 2). The

    economy of Hong Kong is overwhelmingly

    attracting foreign investments followed by

    Singapore and Vietnam in South-East Asia.

    India is slowly picking up the speed as far as

    FDI is concerned; it started with a meager

    0.33% and is presently at around 6%.

    Among the developing economies, all the

    continents are faring equally as far as this

    parameter is concerned.

    Asian Perspective

    Foreign capital is treated as a resource

    gap-filling factor in the context of capital

    scarcity in the developing countries.

    In developing countries, FDI is now the

    principal source of foreign capital. There are

    good reasons to believe that FDI is preferred

    to other types of flows. One convincing

    argument is that FDI consists of a package

    of capital, technology and market access

    which tends to go to those manufacturing

    sectors which enjoy actual or potential

    comparative advantage (Edward, 1992).

    The inflow of FDI would give rise to

    economies of scale and higher productivity

    and create linkage effects in these sectors

    (Edward, 1992). With the inflow of FDI,

    profitability and outward remittance of profitsand dividends move in close tandem with

    (inUS$mn)

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    Table2:InwardFDIS

    tockasaPercentageofGros

    sDomesticProduct,byHost

    RegionandEconomy,1985-2005

    (Con

    td...)

    Regio

    n/Economy

    1985

    1995

    1996

    19

    97

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    World

    6.95

    9.40

    10.26

    11.76

    14.01

    15.95

    18.35

    19.80

    20.92

    22.50

    23.30

    22.67

    Deve

    lopedEconomies

    6.44

    8.92

    9.67

    10.36

    12.47

    13.54

    16.23

    17.57

    19.36

    21.09

    22.05

    21.40

    Europ

    e

    9.97

    13.13

    13.85

    15.22

    19.07

    20.64

    26.38

    28.44

    31.83

    33.89

    34.94

    33.48

    UnitedKingdom

    14.06

    17.62

    19.22

    19.07

    23.73

    26.36

    30.50

    35.40

    33.44

    33.72

    33.32

    37.10

    North

    America

    5.49

    8.31

    8.74

    9.21

    9.91

    11.46

    14.02

    14.45

    14.07

    14.34

    14.51

    14.56

    UnitedStates

    4.41

    7.29

    7.70

    8.26

    8.95

    10.37

    12.87

    13.34

    12.89

    12.88

    13.03

    13.02

    OtherDevelopedCountries

    2.34

    2.91

    3.53

    3.45

    3.93

    4.35

    3.94

    4.40

    6.02

    7.29

    8.15

    7.32

    Deve

    lopingEconomies

    8.93

    12.22

    13.28

    17.53

    20.57

    25.91

    26.26

    28.07

    26.74

    27.77

    27.93

    27.00

    Africa

    10.45

    16.72

    16.43

    17.56

    19.32

    26.98

    25.99

    26.56

    29.82

    30.40

    29.94

    28.20

    Latin

    AmericaandtheCaribbean

    9.26

    11.05

    12.68

    15.47

    18.66

    24.29

    25.84

    31.82

    33.99

    36.78

    37.64

    36.65

    AsiaandOceania

    8.31

    12.15

    13.14

    18.67

    21.95

    26.56

    26.51

    26.37

    23.30

    23.88

    23.88

    23.15

    Asia

    8.26

    12.12

    13.11

    18.66

    21.95

    26.57

    26.51

    26.37

    23.29

    23.88

    23.89

    23.15

    West

    Asia

    11.32

    8.02

    7.80

    8.31

    8.99

    8.88

    8.52

    9.66

    9.22

    11.82

    11.38

    11.88

    EastA

    sia

    8.24

    12.26

    13.19

    23.27

    25.47

    34.04

    33.98

    33.34

    27.64

    28.09

    28.34

    26.99

    Chin

    a

    2.04

    14.44

    15.69

    17.14

    18.51

    18.78

    17.89

    17.28

    17.04

    16.12

    14.88

    14.29

    HongKong,China

    75.24

    50.07

    51.52

    143.59

    136.21

    252.29

    275.44

    257.53

    210.25

    243.39

    275.21

    299.88

    Kore

    a,DemocraticPeoplesRepublicof

    13.36

    6.57

    9.80

    10.31

    9.98

    9.83

    9.45

    8.58

    9.17

    10.09

    10.70

    Kore

    a,Republicof

    2.24

    1.83

    2.06

    2.74

    5.56

    6.47

    7.32

    8.58

    8.11

    7.94

    8.24

    7.97

    South

    Asia

    0.91

    2.54

    3.27

    4.14

    4.70

    4.53

    4.66

    4.78

    5.45

    5.62

    6.04

    6.23

    India

    0.33

    1.54

    2.11

    2.54

    3.33

    3.43

    3.77

    4.20

    5.00

    5.18

    5.68

    5.84

    Pakistan

    3.01

    7.27

    9.36

    12.74

    11.79

    10.18

    9.78

    8.25

    8.29

    8.48

    8.77

    8.78

    SriLanka

    8.84

    9.95

    10.16

    12.24

    12.73

    14.09

    9.80

    9.71

    10.44

    10.72

    11.31

    10.41

  • 7/30/2019 Impact of FDI in India

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    the performance of the economy and the

    balance of payments (Siow, 1993).

    Coming to the scenario in Asia, a few

    economies are attracting heavy inflows and

    others remain low players. As can be seen

    from Table 3, Asia contributes aroundone-fifth of the worlds FDI. South, East and

    South-East Asia contribute almost four-fifth

    of the total inflows directed at this region.

    However, there is a huge skewness in favor

    of some economies in East Asia, with China

    dominating the scene among all the

    economies. The internal policy framework

    and the conducive environment for the

    foreign investors have been very fruitful over

    the period for China. South Asia is among

    the deprived region in entire Asia, with India

    contributing only around 3% to the regions

    inflow in the year 2005. Singapore and

    Thailand are among other economies in this

    region that attract a large inflow of direct

    investments.

    Looking again at the world scenario, we

    can see in Table 4 the trends as far as sectoralinflows of FDI across the developed and

    developing economies are concerned. There

    is a clear indication that most FDI flows are

    in the manufacturing sector, and the service

    sector has picked up in the later years. Most

    economies still have a highly protected

    agricultural sector and low FDI inflows also

    show the same trend (Table 4).

    FDI in IndiaIn this section a detailed analysis of the FDI

    in India is presented on the basis of approvals,

    actual flows, country and sector-wise break-

    ups, state-wise break-ups and also on the

    components of FDI. Considerable interest is

    being shown in measures that might promote

    private foreign investment and allow it to

    make a greater contribution to development

    (Bhalla, 1994); this fact is being proved herein the analysis.

    Table2:InwardFDIS

    tockasaPercentageofGros

    sDomesticProduct,byHostRegionandEconomy,1985-2005

    (...

    con

    td)

    Region/Economy

    1985

    1995

    1996

    19

    97

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    South

    -EastAsia

    13.46

    22.63

    24.62

    27.47

    47.22

    45.98

    45.42

    44.63

    43.65

    43.84

    44.16

    43.20

    Indo

    nesia

    6.71

    10.17

    11.77

    14.57

    32.68

    20.95

    16.50

    10.63

    4.11

    4.96

    7.05

    7.65

    Malaysia

    23.68

    32.34

    35.72

    42.28

    62.44

    61.86

    58.40

    38.60

    39.45

    39.70

    37.19

    36.52

    Philippines

    8.46

    8.21

    8.89

    10.23

    14.28

    14.98

    16.87

    14.95

    15.68

    14.87

    14.92

    14.37

    Sing

    apore

    60.03

    78.21

    81.41

    78.39

    105.83

    124.23

    121.67

    139.95

    153.20

    157.55

    156.19

    158.57

    Thailand

    5.14

    10.53

    10.83

    8.84

    22.78

    25.37

    24.37

    28.79

    30.09

    33.96

    32.95

    33.50

    Vietnam

    30.55

    34.48

    40.82

    49.48

    57.51

    63.39

    66.07

    70.43

    74.31

    70.44

    63.54

    61.17

    South-EastEuropeandtheCommon-

    0.00

    1.31

    1.97

    3.24

    5.40

    8.64

    15.87

    19.49

    22.15

    24.45

    23.80

    21.22

    wealthofIndependentStates(CIS)

    Source:W

    orldInvestmentReport2006.

  • 7/30/2019 Impact of FDI in India

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    Table3:InwardFDIFlows,b

    yHostRegionandEconomy

    ,1985-2005

    Regio

    n

    1985

    1990

    1991

    1995

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    20

    01

    2002

    2003

    2

    004

    2005

    Asia5421.41

    22642.36

    24154.07

    7991

    8.01

    105772.63

    95249.46

    111285.32

    147992.76

    112044.89

    96124.85

    110136.74

    156622.32

    1995

    53.64

    %ofW

    orld

    9.35

    11.23

    1

    5.60

    23.48

    21.60

    13.38

    10.12

    10.50

    13.46

    15.56

    19.74

    22.04

    21.78

    WestAsia

    681.56

    455.69

    214

    5.33

    2495.21

    4246.19

    3535.75

    1799.49

    3518.27

    7219.71

    6018.77

    12313.53

    18580.96

    34460.75

    %ofA

    sia

    12.57

    2.01

    8.88

    3.12

    4.01

    3.71

    1.62

    2.38

    6.44

    6.26

    11.18

    11.86

    17.27

    South,Eastand

    4739.85

    22186.67

    2200

    8.74

    77422.80

    101526.44

    91713.71

    109485.82

    144474.49

    104825.18

    90106.08

    97823.21

    1380

    41.36

    165092.89

    South-EastAsia

    %ofA

    sia

    87.43

    97.99

    9

    1.12

    96.88

    95.99

    96.29

    98.38

    97.62

    93.56

    93.74

    88.82

    88.14

    82.73

    EastAsia

    2248.30

    8791.07

    794

    4.11

    46551.57

    61848.97

    65548.87

    77478.44

    116275.40

    78828.59

    67350.24

    72173.98

    1050

    74.18

    118192.28

    %ofA

    sia

    41.47

    38.83

    3

    2.89

    58.25

    58.47

    68.82

    69.62

    78.57

    70.35

    70.07

    65.53

    67.09

    59.23

    China

    1956.00

    3487.11

    436

    6.34

    37520.53

    45257.04

    45462.75

    40318.71

    40714.81

    46877.59

    52742.86

    53505.00

    606

    30.00

    72406.00

    %of

    Asia

    36.08

    15.40

    1

    8.08

    46.95

    42.79

    47.73

    36.23

    27.51

    41.84

    54.87

    48.58

    38.71

    36.28

    HongKong,

    267.22

    3275.07

    102

    0.86

    6213.36

    11368.15

    14764.95

    24578.09

    61924.06

    23776.53

    9681.88

    13623.58

    340

    31.70

    35897.46

    China

    Korea,

    217.90

    759.20

    113

    0.30

    1246.70

    2641.10

    5067.50

    9630.70

    8650.60

    3866.30

    3042.80

    3891.90

    77

    26.90

    7198.00

    Repu

    blicof

    Taiwan

    342.00

    1330.00

    127

    1.00

    1559.00

    2248.00

    222.00

    2926.00

    4928.00

    4109.00

    1445.00

    453.00

    18

    98.00

    1625.00

    Provinceof

    China

    South

    Asia

    173.13

    574.75

    42

    4.35

    2717.18

    5370.56

    3888.99

    3241.83

    4658.30

    6414.86

    6982.13

    5729.27

    73

    01.26

    9765.05

    %ofA

    sia

    3.19

    2.54

    1.76

    3.40

    5.08

    4.08

    2.91

    3.15

    5.73

    7.26

    5.20

    4.66

    4.89

    Bangladesh

    6.66

    3.24

    1.39

    1.90

    575.25

    576.46

    309.12

    578.70

    354.50

    328.30

    350.20

    4

    60.40

    692.00

    India

    106.09

    236.69

    7

    5.00

    2151.00

    3619.00

    2633.00

    2168.00

    3585.00

    5472.00

    5627.00

    4585.00

    54

    74.00

    6598.00

    %of

    Asia

    1.96

    1.05

    0.31

    2.69

    3.42

    2.76

    1.95

    2.42

    4.88

    5.85

    4.16

    3.50

    3.31

    Pakistan

    47.44

    278.33

    27

    1.92

    492.10

    711.00

    506.00

    532.00

    309.00

    383.00

    823.00

    534.00

    1118.00

    2183.00

    SriLa

    nka

    24.40

    43.35

    6

    7.00

    65.00

    433.00

    150.00

    201.00

    172.95

    171.79

    196.50

    228.72

    2

    33.00

    272.00

    South-EastAsia

    2318.42

    12820.85

    1364

    0.28

    28154.05

    34306.91

    22275.84

    28765.55

    23540.79

    19581.72

    15773.71

    19919.96

    256

    65.93

    37135.56

    %ofA

    sia

    42.76

    56.62

    5

    6.47

    35.23

    32.43

    23.39

    25.85

    15.91

    17.48

    16.41

    18.09

    16.39

    18.61

    (Con

    td...)

    (inUS$mn)

  • 7/30/2019 Impact of FDI in India

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    1989-1991

    2002-2004

    Sector/Industry

    Developed

    Developing

    World

    Develope

    d

    Developing

    South

    -East

    World

    Countries

    Economies

    Countries

    Economies

    EuropeandCIS

    Primary

    9103

    3,340

    12,443

    36,398

    16,328

    4,909

    57,635

    Ag

    riculture,hunting,forestry

    6

    608

    603

    131

    2,341

    132

    2,604

    andfisheries

    Mining,quarryingandpertroleum

    9,072

    2,732

    11,804

    36,493

    13,987

    4,777

    55,257

    Un

    specifiedprimary

    37

    37

    226

    0

    226

    Manufacturing

    47,693

    16,453

    64,147

    93,337

    84,957

    6648

    184,943

    Food,beveragesandtobacco

    4,846

    2,459

    7,304

    10,874

    5,737

    794

    17,405

    Textiles,clothingandleather

    2,113

    248

    2,361

    2,236

    1,334

    46

    3,616

    Woodandwoodproducts

    2,006

    239

    2,245

    425

    298

    396

    268

    Publishing,printingand

    rep

    roductionofrecordedmedia

    870

    870

    2,531

    140

    1

    2,672

    Co

    ke,petroleumproductsand

    nuclearfuel

    997

    309

    687

    6,189

    70

    532

    6,651

    Ch

    emicalsandchemicalproducts

    10,097

    2,214

    12,311

    17,275

    6,716

    230

    24,221

    Table4:Estim

    atedWorldInwardFDIFlows,bySectorandIndustry,1

    989-1991and2002-2004

    (Con

    td...)

    (inmn$)

    Table3:InwardFDIFlows,b

    yHostRegionandEconomy

    ,1985-2005

    Region

    1985

    1990

    1991

    1995

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    20

    01

    2002

    2003

    2

    004

    2005

    Indonesia

    310.00

    1092.00

    1482

    .00

    4346.00

    4678.00

    241.00

    1865.00

    4550.00

    2978.43

    145.09

    596.92

    18

    96.00

    5260.00

    Malaysia

    694.71

    2611.00

    4043

    .00

    5815.00

    6323.00

    2714.00

    3895.26

    3787.63

    553.95

    3203.42

    2473.16

    46

    24.21

    3967.12

    Philip

    pines

    105.00

    550.00

    556

    .00

    1459.00

    1249.00

    1752.00

    1247.00

    2240.00

    195.00

    1542.00

    491.00

    6

    88.00

    1132.00

    Singa

    pore

    1046.75

    5574.75

    4887

    .09

    11535.31

    13752.67

    7313.87

    16577.91

    16484.49

    15648.87

    7338.08

    10376.37

    148

    20.11

    20082.73

    %ofAsia

    19.31

    24.62

    20

    .23

    14.43

    13.00

    7.68

    14.90

    11.14

    13.97

    7.63

    9.42

    9.46

    10.06

    Thailand

    159.99

    2575.00

    2049

    .00

    2070.00

    3882.00

    7492.00

    6091.00

    3350.00

    3886.00

    947.00

    1952.00

    14

    14.00

    3687.48

    (...

    con

    td)

    Source:WorldInvestm

    entReport2006(percentagesestimated).

    (inUS$mn)

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    1989-1991

    2002-2004

    Sector/Industry

    Developed

    Developing

    World

    Develope

    d

    Developing

    South

    -East

    World

    Countries

    Econo

    mies

    Countries

    Economies

    EuropeandCIS

    Rubb

    erandplasticproducts

    933

    31

    964

    2,744

    247

    3

    2,994

    No

    n-metallicmineralproducts

    1,298

    2

    25

    1,523

    3,672

    611

    88

    3

    5,166

    Metalsandmetalproducts

    3,972

    1,2

    75

    5,247

    15,145

    1,653

    77

    0

    17,567

    Machineryandequipment

    4,851

    2,9

    29

    7,779

    9,970

    6,153

    60

    7

    16,730

    Ele

    ctricalandelectronicequipment

    3,530

    9

    67

    4,498

    940

    4,319

    2

    3

    5,282

    Precisioninstruments

    837

    837

    1,233

    64

    2

    6

    1,144

    Motorvehiclesandothertransportequipment

    3,571

    3

    01

    3,873

    5,910

    2,130

    0

    8,040

    Ot

    hermanufacturing

    2,336

    8

    01

    3,137

    5,464

    1,374

    8

    6,846

    Un

    specifiedsecondary

    7,431

    4,4

    55

    11,886

    12,045

    54,252

    2,33

    1

    68,628

    Services

    83,807

    11,3

    02

    94,909

    336,513

    92,418

    7,24

    3

    436,174

    Ele

    ctricity,gasandwater

    827

    1,1

    83

    2,011

    21,397

    5,970

    4

    3

    27,411

    Co

    nstruction

    481

    5

    62

    1,043

    3,119

    2,103

    27

    8

    5,500

    Trade

    16,474

    2,4

    79

    18,953

    31,299

    16,346

    2,58

    5

    50,229

    Ho

    telsandrestaurants

    3,596

    9

    19

    4,515

    1,249

    1,715

    13

    1

    3,095

    Transport,storageandcommunications

    1,681

    1,1

    93

    2,874

    30,710

    11,303

    82

    2

    42,835

    Fin

    ance

    30,353

    2,4

    08

    32,761

    112,664

    19,663

    95

    2

    133,279

    Bu

    sinessactivities

    17,288

    1,5

    04

    18,792

    90,462

    26,143

    1,63

    7

    118,242

    Pu

    blicadministrationanddefence

    2,317

    2,317

    3,103

    16

    1

    3,264

    Education

    7

    4

    11

    3

    40

    3

    46

    He

    althandsocialservices

    67

    23

    90

    296

    212

    2

    2

    62

    Co

    mmunity,socialandpersonalservice

    activities

    2,274

    2,283

    1,318

    4,295

    1

    9

    5,632

    Otherservices

    7,328

    5

    47

    7,875

    34,534

    2,250

    3

    36,787

    Un

    specifiedtertiary

    913

    4

    72

    1,385

    6,952

    2,378

    58

    7

    9,917

    Priva

    tebuyingandsellingofproperty

    114

    114

    1,402

    1

    1

    1,414

    Unsp

    ecified

    8,086

    3,8

    39

    11,925

    17,618

    9,189

    73

    8

    27,545

    Table4:Estim

    atedWorldInwardFDIFlows,bySectorandIndustry,1

    989-1991and2002-2004

    (...

    con

    td)

    Source:UNCTAD.

    (inmn$)

  • 7/30/2019 Impact of FDI in India

    14/24

    As in all colonial countries there was a widespread animosity towards foreign capital in

    India (Chandra, 1991). Since 1980s, foreign capital was welcomed into hitherto closed areas

    and its inflow multiplied manifold. Outstanding FDI as estimated by RBI, in Indias commercial

    and industrial sector increased at a very slow pace from Rs. 387 cr in 1955 to Rs. 973 cr in

    1975 falling marginally to Rs. 933 cr in 1980 (Chandra, 1991). The series of adjustments in

    industrial policy in the 1980s and opening the doors wider for FDI undoubtedly helped somescaling up of the inflow of foreign private capital from the insignificant Rs. 10 cr per annum in

    1970s to annual average of Rs. 100 cr in the first half of the1980s and about

    Rs. 200 cr per annum in the second half (Mehta, 1991).

    It is realized that FDI has proved to be an even more powerful channel for the transfer of

    knowledge and export capability, and India should not lag behind other Asian countries in reaping

    the benefits of FDI, especially for the infrastructure and exports (Economic Survey,1993-94). As a

    result of open policy relating to FDI, foreign interest in Indian economy got stimulated.

    Approvals vs. Actual Inflows

    Table 5 depicts the detailed account of FDI actual inflow against the amount that was approved.

    It can be observed that there is a large gap between the two, mainly attributed to the procedural

    delays at the initial phase of liberalization. This gap seems to have faded in the later phases

    Amount in Rs. cr Amount in US$ mn

    Year (Jan.-Dec.) FDI Approvals FDI Inflows FDI Approvals FDI Inflows

    1991 (Aug.-Dec.) 505 353 206 144

    1992 3,818 691 1459 264

    1993 8,862 1,862 2,891 608

    1994 8,955 3,112 2,855 992

    1995 30,882 6,485 9,835 2,065

    1996 30,886 8,752 8,981 2,545

    1997 50,389 12,990 14,048 3,621

    1998 27,590 13,269 6,985 3,359

    1999 25,140 10,167 5,986 2,421

    2000 17,237 12,354 4,009 2,873

    2001 20,940 16,778 4,653 3,728

    2002 11,058 18,196 2,304 3,791

    2003 5,416 11,617 1,178 2,526

    2004 8,741 17,266 1,900 3,755

    2005 7,900 19,299 1,775 4,360

    2006 (Jan.-Oct.) 10,646 36,092 2,343 7,930

    Total 2,68,965 1,89,283 71,407 44,983

    Table 5: Year-Wise FDI Approvals and Inflows(Net of ADRs/GDRs) (from August 1991 to October 2006)

    Note: a. FDI approvals data from the month of October 2004 are not being maintained by RBI, Mumbai.

    b. FDI inflow includes FIPB/SIA route, RBIs automatic route, amount on account of acquisition of existing shares by foreign investors,

    RBIs NRI Schemes, stock swapped and advance amount pending allotment of shares.

    Source: SIA, DIPP, Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

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    where, foreign investment

    is being attracted to a large extent

    by removing all the administrative

    hurdles and also providing a

    conducive economic environment

    within the country.

    Country-Wise Analysis

    The analysis of FDI on the basis

    of country of origin shows

    interesting results. Most of the

    developed economies are seen to

    express their interest in investing

    in India. Tax-Haven Mauritius isthe favorite route of most

    investors. As seen in Table 6, this

    country alone contributes to one-

    third of all our inflows. The US

    is the second highest contributor

    having a share of around 12%.

    All the other economies are

    meager contributors with

    Singapore and Switzerland

    contributing only to the extent

    of 3% and 1% respectively.

    This shows that there are large

    number of small investments

    flowing in rather than small

    number of large investments.

    Figure 1 is a clear indication ofthe above statement. The policy

    initiatives have to be taken up to

    boost large investors into the

    country.

    Sector-Wise Analysis

    The FDI in India is majorly

    concentrated in the electrical

    equipment industry, which

    Table6:Statem

    entonCountry-Wise/Year-W

    iseFDIInflows(fromAugust1991toSeptember2006)

    Source:SIANewsletter,DIPP,MinistryofCommerceandIndustry.

    S.No.

    Country

    1991-2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    C

    umulativeTotal

    (Aug.-Dec.)

    (Jan.-Dec.)

    (Jan.-Dec.)

    (Jan.-Dec.)

    (Jan.-Sep.)

    (inR

    s.)

    (inUS$)

    1.

    Mauritius

    308,226.14

    25,859.33

    46,162.14

    94,078.28

    146,632.48

    620,958.35

    14,328.84

    2.

    USA

    131,648.83

    19,040.00

    29,791.68

    20,700.41

    24,179.08

    225,359.99

    5,444.55

    3.

    Japan

    69,320.44

    4,343.86

    5,337.44

    7,449.55

    4,648.43

    91,099.71

    2,162.78

    4.

    TheNetherlands

    45,002.48

    11,618.83

    22,779.26

    5,277.35

    4,747.90

    89,425.81

    2,090.81

    5.

    UK

    54,922.31

    8,628.97

    6,585.36

    9,578.08

    8,187.49

    87,902.20

    2,092.50

    6.

    Germany

    39,842.10

    3,624.98

    7,274.88

    3,683.13

    12,529.23

    66,954.33

    1,619.73

    7.

    Singapore

    21,277.30

    1,680.46

    2,855.01

    14,168.96

    26,224.54

    66,206.28

    1,531.92

    8.

    France

    24,307.05

    1,642.51

    5,289.30

    1,288.29

    2,011.09

    34,538.24

    817.07

    9.

    Korea(South)

    23,699.89

    1,128.62

    1,227.14

    2,943.09

    1,728.19

    30,726.94

    786.67

    10.

    Switzerland

    14,120.56

    4,289.59

    3,137.05

    3,689.39

    2,704.36

    27,940.96

    673.06

    11.

    AcquisitionofExistingShares(fr

    om1996to1999)

    72,780.18

    0

    0

    0

    0

    72,780.18

    1,848.86

    12.

    AdvanceofInflows(from1999to2004)

    55,030.92

    18,807.56

    24,851.48

    0

    0

    98,689.96

    2,178.72

    13.

    StockSwapped

    840

    1,725.00

    0

    283.71

    0

    2,848.71

    61.23

    14.

    RBIsNRISchemes

    84,269.48

    0

    0

    0

    0

    84,269.48

    2,509.86

    GrandTotal

    1,050,091.58

    116,171.70

    172,665.21

    192,990.87

    283,743.30

    1,815,662.66

    43,284.10

    (AmountinRs.mn)

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    contributes to around 14% of the total inflows. This is followed by the financial and non-

    financial services contributing around 10%. As seen in Table 7, most of the inflows among the

    top 10 industries are towards the service sector. Food-processing industry and pharmaceutical

    industry would be the industries where FDI would largely be flowing in future.

    Figure 2 gives a summary of the FDI inflows for 2006 reflecting the trend in the country

    towards more and more service sectors opening up for foreign investment and also proving to

    be one of the favorite destinations of investors.

    Figure 1: Share of Top Five Countries in FDI Inflows

    (Cumulative from April 2006 to September 2006)

    17%

    2%3%

    9%

    11% 58%

    Mauritius

    Singapore

    USA

    UK

    The Netherlands

    Others

    Source: Reserve Bank of India.

    Figure 2: Sector-Wise Distribution of Top Five FDI Inflows

    (Cumulative from April 2006 to September 2006)

    30%

    3%6%

    9% 18%

    Services Sector

    Electrical Equipments

    (incl. S/W and Elec.)

    Telecommunications

    Transportation Industry

    Fuels (Power and OilRefinery)

    Others

    34%

    Source: Reserve Bank of India.

    State-Wise Analysis

    Maharashtra has been a major FDI destination among all the states in India. Table 8 depictsthe top five states in India, which are attracting most of the investment. Naturally, these states

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    Source:

    SIANewsle

    tter,D

    IPP

    ,Ministryo

    fCommercean

    dIndustry.

    Table7:StatementonSector-Wise/Year-W

    iseFDIInflows(fromAugust1991toSeptember2006)

    S.No.

    Sector

    1991-2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    CumulativeTotal

    (Aug.-Dec.)

    (Jan.-Dec.)

    (Jan.-Dec.)

    (Jan

    .-Dec.)

    (Jan.-Sep.)

    (inR

    s.)

    (inUS$)

    1.

    ElectricalEquipments(including

    110,908.65

    13,550.09

    39,666.61

    45

    ,938.44

    63,042.10

    273,105.89

    6,271.88

    ComputerSoftwareandElectronics)

    2.

    ServicesSector(Financialand

    65,938.62

    13,903.59

    11,455.83

    31

    ,445.14

    74,849.74

    197,592.92

    4,599.77

    Non-Financial)

    3.

    Telecommunications

    98,994.43

    7,272.59

    6,087.84

    9

    ,639.13

    39,722.26

    161,716.24

    3,776.12

    4.

    TransportationIndustry

    98,763.48

    15,133.84

    8,063.68

    9

    ,659.22

    13,403.52

    145,023.74

    3,436.37

    5.

    Fuels(PowerandOilRefinery)

    89,762.37

    7,418.51

    7,159.79

    2

    ,765.05

    8,972.42

    116,078.14

    2,719.70

    6.

    Chemicals(otherthanFertilizers)

    53,993.62

    2,849.05

    8,677.14

    9

    ,044.68

    15,627.48

    90,191.97

    2,237.58

    7.

    FoodProcessingIndustries

    38,228.38

    3,076.28

    3,690.18

    1

    ,782.91

    1,745.95

    48,523.72

    1,211.19

    8.

    DrugsandPharmaceuticals

    16,893.94

    2,793.28

    15,711.08

    5

    ,107.25

    4,802.86

    45,308.40

    1,054.97

    9.

    MetallurgicalIndustries

    10,590.68

    1,454.52

    8,583.79

    6

    ,321.99

    6,324.84

    33,275.81

    765.8

    10.

    CementandGypsumProducts

    12,166.66

    440.4

    7.3

    19

    ,698.17

    960.04

    33,272.56

    767.47

    11.

    MiscellaneousIndustries

    130,010.60

    14,568.58

    13,400.28

    17

    ,567.60

    34,961.65

    210,508.70

    4,933.60

    12.

    AcquisitionofExistingShares

    72,780.18

    0

    0

    0

    0

    72,780.18

    1,848.86

    (from1996to1999)

    13.

    AdvanceofInflows(from1999

    to2004)

    55,030.92

    18,807.56

    24,851.48

    0

    0

    98,689.96

    2,178.72

    14.

    StockSwapped

    840

    1,725.00

    0

    283.71

    0

    2,848.71

    61.23

    15.

    RBIsNRISchemes

    84,269.48

    0

    0

    0

    0

    84,269.48

    2,509.86

    GrandTotal

    1,050,091.75

    116,172.60

    172,665.19

    192

    ,990.87

    283,743.30

    1,815,663.70

    43,284.12

    (AmountinRs.mn)

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    Table 9: Components of FDI in India

    Year Direct Foreign Investment Equity Reinvested Earnings Other Capital

    1990-91 97 NA NA NA

    1991-92 129 NA NA NA

    1992-93 315 NA NA NA

    1993-94 586 NA NA NA

    1994-95 1,314 NA NA NA

    1995-96 2,144 NA NA NA

    1996-97 2,821 NA NA NA

    1997-98 3,557 NA NA NA1998-99 2,462 NA NA NA

    1999-00 2,155 NA NA NA

    2000-01 4,029 2,399 1,352 280

    2001-02 6,130 4,096 1,644 390

    2002-03 5,035 2,825 1,832 438

    2003-04 4,322 2,229 1,460 633

    2004-05 5,652 3,779 1,904 369

    2005-06 7,751 5,820 1,676 256

    (in US$ mn)

    Table 8: Share of Top Five States Attracting FDI Approvals(January 1991 to March 2004)

    RankName

    No. of FDI Approvals Amount of FDIPercentage with Total

    of the State Total Tech. FinancialRs. US$

    FDI Approvedin cr in bn

    1 Maharashtra 4,816 1,308 3,508 51,114.68 13.18 17.48

    2 Delhi 2,638 304 2,334 35,250.74 9.78 12.06

    3 Tamil Nadu 2,607 613 1,994 25,071.77 6.52 8.58

    4 Karnataka 2,467 494 1,973 24,138.44 6.15 8.26

    5 Gujarat 1,204 556 648 18,837.30 4.81 6.44

    Source: Economic Survey 2003-04.

    also happen to be among the most industrialized states in our country. So industrialization

    leads to further industrialization. Maharashtra attracts most of the manufacturing FDI, whereas

    Delhi and Karnataka attracts the FDI in service sector.

    Components of FDI

    As can be observed from Table 9, most of the investment flows are fresh equity investments.

    India does not have full convertibility on capital account as of now; this brings most of the

    earnings reinvested in the economy. The other capital which includes the remittance towards

    recouping the losses of branches/subsidiaries, etc. forms a minor part of the total inflow.

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    Source:

    Est

    ima

    ted

    .

    Table10:DescriptiveStatistics

    Sum

    Mean

    M

    inimum

    Maximum

    Std.

    Dev.

    Variance

    Skewness

    Expo

    rts

    (US$mn

    )

    574

    534

    .00

    38302

    .27

    18266

    .00

    85206

    .00

    18781

    .39

    352740651

    .00

    1.2

    5

    Impo

    rts

    (US$mn

    )

    760

    234

    .00

    50682

    .27

    21064

    .00

    118908

    .00

    25006

    .84

    625342117

    .00

    1.4

    4

    GDP

    (Rs.cr)

    15614

    111

    .00

    1040940

    .73

    692871

    .00

    1529408

    .00

    269817

    .23

    72801337406

    .36

    0.3

    2

    FDI(US$mn

    )

    40

    748

    .00

    2716

    .53

    97

    .00

    6130

    .00

    2021

    .32

    4085729

    .70

    0.2

    3

    Analysis of Relation Between FDI, Exports, Imports

    and GDP in India (1985-2005)

    Undoubtedly, the role of FDI in the Indian economy has

    considerably increased. The most important factors for this

    change are liberalization of regulatory framework and privatization

    programs since 1991. In other words, India adopted open door

    policy with regard to FDI since late 1980s. The theoretical support

    for FDI is that it will contribute to increasing exports and higher

    growth of GDP. Flow of investment in the short run may also

    increase imports; however, if this situation continues in the long

    run it may have a detrimental impact on the growth and national

    income if increase in exports does not match with the increase

    in imports.

    It would be interesting to analyze the impact of FDI on exportsand GDP. With this intention, simple regression technique has

    been used to capture the impact of FDI on exports, imports and

    GDP. FDI has been used as an independent variable whereas

    exports, imports and GDP are used as dependent variables.

    As depicted in Table 10, the imports have a higher mean,

    standard deviation and also a higher skewness and the exports

    are lower than the imports showing the steady trade deficit that

    was existing in Indias foreign trade.The growth of FDI in India was very low in the initial years

    of liberalization. However, in the later years with the relaxation

    of processes for entry and fast track clearances and widespread

    opening of FDI both in terms of cap and sectors showed a marked

    improvement in the inflows. The average does not seem

    impressive due to the above fact.

    To analyze the regression results it is important to see the

    impact of the most sought after FDI in the economy. As can beseen in Table 11, the coefficient of determination (R2) between

    the FDI and exports is very high and also significant. The

    interpretation can be that on an average, US$1 mn inflow of

    FDI in the economy results in around US$7.8 mn exports in the

    economy. The variation in exports due to changes in FDI can be

    explained to the extent of 72%. All the estimated coefficients

    are statistically significant and have an acceptable standard error.

    The coefficient explaining variation in exports is significant and

    positive indicating that the FDI has in fact promoted exportsduring the period of study.

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    In case of imports, as expected, the coefficient has a positive value and is statistically

    significant showing that there is an increase in imports along with an increase in the exports

    with every flow of FDI in the economy. The results of regression show that with every million

    US$ increase in the FDI, there is an increase of imports to the extent of US$10 mn. This

    indicates two things: (i) imports are increasing with FDI and (ii) increase in imports are higher

    than increase in exports with every dollar flow of FDI in the country. However, the coefficient

    of determination is only 67% indicating that there are other factors besides the FDI whichexplain the changes in imports in the Indian economy over the period of study.

    The main aim of all the economies to attract FDI is to see that the economic growth takes

    place and the people in the economy are better off than before. The closest indicator of

    economic growth is the GDP of the economy. So by analyzing the impact of FDI on GDP, we

    explain whether the objective has been achieved or not. As can be seen in the table, the

    regression results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between GDP and

    FDI in the Indian economy during the period of study. There is an increase in the GDP variable

    due to FDI inflows. The coefficient of determination is also very high (84%) indicating thatmost of the changes in GDP can be explained by FDI in the economy. Thus, it can be said that

    the purpose for which the FDI is attracted in the economy is being served to a very large extent.

    However, to get a true picture, a comparative study across economies indicating the contribution

    of FDI in the economic growth of these economies would be more justified. But, this is

    beyond the scope of this paper.

    Conclusion

    FDI has contributed in the process of growth in the world economy in general and the developing

    world in particular. From the study it is clear that FDI has positive impact on exports, imports

    and has greatly contributed to GDP. Foreign investment flows are growing more rapidly than

    world GDP and trade, implying increasing integration of world economy through capital and

    technology.

    New sectors such as retail, banking, insurance, drugs and pharmaceutical industry which

    are either thrown open or planned to be open for private and foreign investment, are the hopes

    for the Indian economy. To quote the recent trends, FDI equity inflows during April 2006 to

    November 2006 were $7.2 bn, which is the highest ever for equity capital since economic

    liberalization. The higher inflows as well as the new credit rating reflected growing investorconfidence in India. According to A T Kearneys FDI confidence index, Indias rank as a FDI

    Source: Estimated.

    Table 11: Regression Analysis

    Constant B Coefficient Std. Error t sig. R R2

    Exports 16848.889 7.897 1.358 5.816 0.000 0.850 0.722

    Imports 23059.220 10.168 1.954 5.203 0.000 0.822 0.676

    GDP 707486.899 122.75 14.547 8.438 0.000 0.920 0.846

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    investment destination has improved from No. 15 in 2003 to No. 2 in 2006. According to the

    leading financial firm J P Morgan, the return on equity on investments made in India is the

    highest in Asia at 18%. Services sector has become the top sector in attracting FDI during

    April-November 2006. The importance of FDI in the countrys economy is in terms of not only

    generating economic activities and jobs, but equally in facilitating transfer of technology and

    managerial capabilities, which helps enhance Indias global competitiveness (Times NewsNetwork, 2007).

    Unlike China, India has not been able to attract substantial FDI; Indian manufacturing

    should be able to take advantage of foreign investment as a transmission belt for advanced

    technology. Unless India makes serious efforts in the direction of improving labor relations,

    financial sector and infrastructural facilities accompanied by long-term policy certainty, it is

    difficult to attract FDI continuously like other leading Asian nations. Therefore, Indias attitude

    and political intent towards foreign investment and technology has to be made clear in order

    to obtain huge foreign investment flows.

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