Impact of climate change on Jamaican Agriculture & long- term …salises-srad.com/pdf/day2/panel2/J. Gordon - Panel2... · 2012-09-30 · Impact of climate change on Jamaican Agriculture

Impact of climate change on Jamaican Agriculture & long-term sustainability of the hotel industry supply chain

P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter, J Gordon, K Rhiney Globalization, Climate Change and Rural Resilience: The Challenge of Sustainable Development in the Caribbean and Beyond. May 9-11, 2012, Kingston, Jamaica

outline

• Sampling design and field work

• Exposure to climate change

• Sensitivity & adaptive capacity

• Impacts on the local supply chain

• Adaptation strategies

Diagram of the Methodology

Sampling & study zone

ia

Criteria for selecting communities:

• Pre-results of crop-suitability-change

• Different production areas (covering all crops and production systems)

• Farmer is/is not a active supplier of Hotel industry

• Field-work supported by UWI - University of West Indies • 5 focal workshops in selected communities:

Douglas Castle – St. Ann / Beacon - St. Elizabeth / Christiana – Manchester Fort George - St. Mary / Dumfries - St. Thomas

• 130 individual surveys with farmer • 200 GPS points collected of participating farms and production locations

(used as crop reference sites for climatic conditions)

FIELD WORK October 2010

Diagram of the Methodology

Exposure to Climate Change V

uln

era

bili

ty

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)

By 2050 average temperature increases 1.7 °C passing through 1 °C by 2030 By 2050 the maximum annual temperature increases 2°C and the minimum annual temperature increases 1.5°C By 2050 annual precipitation decreases 65 mm passing through a decrease of 53 mm in 2030

“It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation”

Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica

CLIMATE CHANGE GCM predictions for 2030 & 2050

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)

Table of suitability-change of all examined crops

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) EXPOSURE Suitability change for banana under progressive climate change

current

2030

2050

Suitability in %

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) EXPOSURE Suitability change for tomato (salad) under progressive climate change

current

2030

2050

Suitability in %

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) EXPOSURE Suitability change for tomato (plummy) under progressive climate change

current

2030

2050

Suitability in %

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) EXPOSURE Suitability change for ginger under progressive climate change

current

Suitability in %

2030

2050

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) EXPOSURE Suitability change for mango under progressive climate change

current

Suitability in %

2030

2050

Exposure to Climate Change V

uln

era

bili

ty

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

SENSITIVITY & ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Low Sensitivity (high value)

Physical Type of road, material of house, ownership Natural Water is quite evenly distributed, enough water, sustainable practices on waste management

Medium Sensitivity

High Sensitivity (low value)

Financial credits are available but not accessible (or not used) Social lack of presence of farm-organizations Human missing training, don’t keep records

High Adaptive Capacity (high value)

Natural Distance to water-access, water quality, waste-management (recycling), Type of soil

Medium Adaptive Capacity

Physical Short distance to market, good access to electricity, availability of transportation

Low Adaptive Capacity (low value)

Social missing activities of organizations Financial lack of access to credit, indirect marketing channel, missing certification Human low access to training, degree of education

SENSITIVITY & ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Socio-economic analysis

It seems as if specially vulnerable subgroups exist behind the data. Further analysis is needed to characterize them.

e.g. marketing channel, ownership of land, education and access to training

• Quality and quantity of the goods produced will be more volatile and likely cause unpredictable shortages or excesses on the markets, affecting farm-gate prices and value streams to the customers in many ways

• climatic suitability for key Jamaican crops, will decrease, reducing the areas of cultivation, adversely affecting quality of the products and cause some crops to migrate to other niches

• Farmers will be forced to focus on the most climate-resilient and profitable crops, which in turn will reduce the variety of goods available

• Climate-vulnerable crops will be more costly for farmers to produce since yields will decrease and the crops will require more demanding management

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HOTEL INDUSTRY SUPPLY CHAIN

• Adapting to changing seasons and extreme weather events and

long-term focus on sustainable production, particularly with the

aid of greenhouses and water storage facilities (tanks)

• Training and education of farmers in sustainable farming

practices, especially soil management, greenhouse

technology and mechanization

• Organization of farmers into groups that will allow

them to have better access to financing,

information and other resources

• Implementation of Governmental policy

(especially regarding land acquisition)

• Develop infrastructure to improve

marketing

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES DEVELOPED FROM LOCAL WORKSHOPS

• Variety sampling for improved climate-suitability

• Nurseries for seedling production

• Evacuation containers to house seedling during the passage of hurricanes or heavy rainfalls

• Crop diversification

• Supplementary irrigation to control water stress

• Small, enclosed farming systems to control the harvesting season

• Alternative crops for highly exposed crops

• Agroforestry systems

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Proposed by CIAT

• Strengthening of local capacity and knowledge sharing

• Funding of community-based groups

• Training and awareness building of communities for climate change

• Alliance building along value-chains

• Best practice learning from areas with similar climates

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Proposed by CIAT cont’d

Impact of climate change on Jamaican agriculture & long-term sustainability of the hotel industry

P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter, J Gordon, K Rhiney 3rd Annual Sustainable Livelihoods Learning Network Conference, Jamaica 2011

Thank you!