Impact of Biofuel Production on World Nitrogen Fertilizer Demand: Current Situation and Outlook, P. Heffer, IFA

09/12/2010

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IMPACT OF BIOFUEL PRODUCTION

ON WORLD NITROGEN FERTILIZER

DEMAND: CURRENT SITUATION

AND OUTLOOK

Patrick Heffer, IFA

5th

International Nitrogen Conference

3-7 December 2010, New Delhi, India

Contents

Biofuel production: current situation and outlook

Main feedstocks used for biofuel production

Nitrogen fertilizer use by crop

Nitrogen use efficiency: current trend and outlook

Anticipated evolution of fertilizer use by crop

Nitrogen fertilizer application to biofuel feedstocks

o Current situation

o Outlook to 2019

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Biofuel Production:

Current Situation and Outlook

Outlook for World Ethanol and

Biodiesel Production (billion liters)

Source: OECD-FAO

2007-09: 86% of the

ethanol output used

as biofuel

2019: 93% of the

ethanol output to be

used as biofuel

158.8 Bl ethanol +

41.2 Bl biodiesel

in 2019

74.3 Bl ethanol +

15.2 Bl biodiesel

in 2007-09

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Outlook for World Ethanol and

Biodiesel Production (billion liters)

Source: OECD-FAO

US ethanol + Brazilian ethanol +

EU ethanol + EU biodiesel =

• 82% of total output in 2007-09

• 81% of total output in 2019

Main Feedstocks Used

for Biofuel Production

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World Ethanol Production by

Feedstock

Source: OECD-FAO

World Biodiesel Production by

Feedstock

Source: OECD-FAO

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Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel

Production from Global Production

Source: OECD-FAO

Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel

Production from Total Production

Source: FAPRI

Ethanol Feedstocks Biodiesel Feedstocks

62%

37%

88%

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Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop

N Fertilizer Use by Crop at

the Global Level in 2007/08

Source: IFA

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N Fertilizer Use by Crop in Biofuel

Producing Countries in 2007/08

Source: IFA

Nitrogen Use Efficiency:

Current Trend and Outlook

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N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN)

in Maize Production in the USA

Source: Snyder (2009)

N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN)

in Sugar Cane Production in Brazil

Source: Cunha and Prochnow (unpublished data)

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Evolution* of N Fertilizer Deliveries

vs. Grain Production in France

Source: UNIFA

cereal + rapeseed production

N fertilizer deliveries(*) relative evolution (1990 = 100)

Anticipated Evolution of

Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop

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Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer

Use by Crop (for ethanol feedstocks)

Source: IFA

Share of Total Domestic

N Fertilizer Consumption (%)Volume (Mt N)

Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer

Use by Crop (for biodiesel feedstocks)

Source: IFA

Share of Total Domestic

N Fertilizer Consumption (%)Volume (Mt N)

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Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications

to Biofuel Feedstocks:

Current Situation

Total N Fertilizer Use in the Main

Biofuel-Producing Countries (Mt N)

Source: IFA

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Fertilizer Applications to Biofuel

Feedstocks in 2008/09 (Mt nutrients)

Source: IFA

3.0%

2.5%4.8%

of world consumption

Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications

to Biofuel Feedstocks:

Outlook to 2019

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N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol

Feedstocks (Mt N)

N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol

Feedstocks (Mt N)

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N Fertilizer Applications to Biodiesel

Feedstocks (Mt N)

World N Fertilizer Applications to

Total Biofuel Feedstocks (Mt N)

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for questions/comments:

[email protected]