IMPACT 6-7th November 20033rd IMPACT Project Workshop Louvain-la-Neuve 1 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation.

IMPACT

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

1

Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes And Uncertainty

IMPACT

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

2

Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

IMPACTInvestigation of ExtreMe Flood Processes And UnCertainTy

IMPACT

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

3

Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty

A (brief) Intro

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

4

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

What is IMPACT?

• A research programme supported by the European Commission under the fifth framework programme and contributing to the implementation of the Generic Activity on Natural and Technological Hazards within the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme

• A 3 year research programme - started Dec 2001; ends Nov 2004 (4th workshop, Zaragoza, Spain in Autumn)

• A Project comprising 11 partners from 10 countries

[See brochure and CD ROMS from workshops #1 and #2][www.impact-project.net]

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

5

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

The problem to be solved...

“The assessment and reduction of risks from extreme flooding caused by natural events or the failure of dams and flood defence structures”

(Structures = dams, weirs, sluices, flood embankments, dikes, tailings dams etc.)

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

6

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

The problem to be solved...

“To manage and minimise (flood) risks effectively it is necessary to be able to identify hazards and vulnerability in a consistent and reliable manner, to have good knowledge of structure behaviour in emergency situations, and to understand the potential consequences of failure in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety”

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

7

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

Objectives are to:

• Advance scientific knowledge / understanding

• Develop predictive tools / methods

in five areas:

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

8

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

• Breaching of embankments (dams & flood defences) (WP2)

• Flood propagation through valley and urban areas (WP3)

• Movement of sediment (WP4)

• Quantifying risk and uncertainty (WP5)

• Geophysics and field data collection (WP6)

Recommendations from CADAMwww.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/CADAM

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

9

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

Sediment Movement

[WP4]

FloodPropagation

[WP3]

Breach Formation

[WP2]

Risk & uncertaintyAssessment of individual and

combined uncertainty

Implications for End User Applications

[WP5]

Geophysics / Field Data

[WP6]

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

10

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Scientific Objectives & Approach

Generic approach is via a combination of:

• Fieldwork

• Laboratory physical modelling

• Desk analysis

• Computational modelling

including a focus upon assessment of process uncertainty in all areas

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

11

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Benefits of the IMPACT Project

Ultimately a reduction in risk to the public through:

• improved understanding of extreme processes, hence improved understanding of associated risks to the public, environment, assets etc.

• improved reliability of modelling tools

• improved understanding of modelling results, leading to more appropriate application of predictions (e.g. emergency planning

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

12

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Some Key Aspects of Implementation

The Overall Approach

• To keep a focus on overall objectives and application by end users

• To complement and benefit from other National & International R&D (interaction with additional organisations wherever possible)

• End user take up / application of results

6-7th November 2003 3rd IMPACT Project WorkshopLouvain-la-Neuve

13

IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Immediate Implementation...

• 3rd IMPACT Workshop hosted here at Louvain-la-Neuve

• Thur am update on WP progress• Thur pm focus on sediment issues across industry

• Fri am benchmark tests (various WPs)• Fri pm overall case study / discussion sessions

____________