Immigration in Times of Recession Implications for Policy Pia Orrenius, Ph.D. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the presenter; they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Immigration Reform in 2010 César Chávez Institute, San Francisco State Univ.
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Immigration in Times of Recession Implications for Policy Pia Orrenius, Ph.D. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are.
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Immigration in Times of RecessionImplications for Policy
Pia Orrenius, Ph.D.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the presenter; they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Immigration Reform in 2010César Chávez Institute, San Francisco State Univ.
Road Map
Effects of recession on Foreign-born workers Foreign-born population
Regional differences Foreign-born vs. U.S.-born workers
Labor force growth Immigrants account for one-half labor force growth
Efficiency gains Complement native workers at high, low ends of skill distribution Fill jobs natives shun Move to where jobs are
Productivity growth High-skilled immigration instrumental in high-tech innovation,
R&D
Drawbacks Winners and losers Adverse fiscal impact of low-skilled immigration
Immigration Policy: Ready for recovery?
Green cards go to family, not work-based immigrants
Immediate family44%
Other family19%
Employment16%
Others2%
Refugees and asylees
15%
Diversity4%
Note: Data represent FY 2005-2008 averagesSource: DHS, 2008 Yearbook of Immigrant Statistics
So workers come on temporary, not permanent visas
Temporary Visas
Illegals Family Based Green Cards
Employment Based Green
Cards
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Note: Data represent 2004 to 2008 averages for new arrivalsSource: State Department Visa Office; Passel and Cohn 2008, Pew Hispanic Center; DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics
Thousands
Most skilled workers use temporary visas
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000Employment Based (Skilled) H-1B and H-1B1 TN L1
Thousands
Note: Data from 1992 to 2008Source: Statistical Yearbook of the INS; DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics; Visa office of the State Department
Almost all legal low-skilled workers use temporary visas
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Unskilled Permanent H-2A H-2BThousands
Note: Data from 1992 to 2008Source: Statistical Yearbook of the INS; DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics; visa office of the State Department
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Unauthorized Legal
Most low-skilled workers come illegally
Source: Jeffrey Passel and Roberto Suro, Pew Hispanic Center (2005); Passel and Cohn, Pew Hispanic Center (2008).
Absorbing temporary workers under current system is like
swallowing this fish…
Green card queues spell a decade-long wait in many cases
Source: State Department Visa Bulletin, March 2009; Wadhwa et al. 2007, Ewing Marion Kaufmann Foundation ; Authors’ own estimates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Employment Based Family Sponsored
Time
Visas
Thousands Years
Family-based green card queue for Mexicans 60 years?
Source: State Department Visa Bulletin, March 2009; Authors’ own estimates0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Time
Visas
Thousands Years
ConclusionImmigration is slowing due to the economyU.S. long-run growth will still depend on immigrantsPolicy environment is completely inadequate to deal w/ legal, illegal immigrationAmnesty alone is not enough; we need to address future flows
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Criminal Arrests
AdministrativeArrests
Worksite enforcement jumps
Source: DHS
Current policy environment in flux
Some Bush policies on hold No-match program, Real ID Act, worksite raids,
higher employer fines E-verify: immigration status verification
Obama policies: focus on labor regulations? Legalization?
Local, state ordinances reg. illegal immigrants; enforcement of federal law
Interminable queues for green cards; running out of temporary visas