IMCASE Inception Workshop Program Final

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Rationale

Climate change continues to pose a real threat to those whose livelihood strongly depends on the agricultural sector. Current scientific advances, however, cannot yet evaluate the impact of climate shocks on food crop productivity in a manner that effectively integrates the key processes involved: meteorological, biophysical, econometric, and sociological. State-of-the-art approaches and tools now exist for simulating meteorological processes (seasonal climate forecasting), biophysical process (crop and soil models), spatial distribution (remote sensing and geospatial analysis), econometric processes (price forecasting models), and impact on household food security (Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO]/United Nations World Food Program [WFP] Shock Model). The integration of these approaches in the IMCASE project offers potential for simulating the impacts of seasonal climate variability on agricultural output and food security among farm households and their communities.

Objectives

The objectives of the inception workshop are to:

(1) provide an overview of the IMCASE project, (2) give orientation on various modeling tools that the project will

focus on and other relevant subjects, (3) discuss the integration mechanism of these modeling tools; and (4) explore potential collaboration with relevant ongoing projects

and/or institutions.

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The Models/Tools

As a start, this project will focus on rice-based farming systems. The Climate Prediction Tool developed by International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University will handle seasonal climate forecast, while the rice crop growth model developed by IRRI (ORYZA2000), along with GIS and remote sensing data support, will capture the rice productivity modeling aspect. The IRRI Global Rice Model (IGRM) will be used for price forecasting, whereas the FAO/WFP Shock Model will handle the estimation of undernourishment at the household level. The Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) produces seasonal climate forecasts based on model output statistic (MOS) corrections to climate predictions from general circulation model (GCM) or information on sea-surface temperatures, or other predictors, along with updated local climate data. ORYZA2000 is a weather-driven and process-based rice growth and yield estimation model. It captures complex and dynamic interactions among climate, agronomic management, crop characteristics, and soil properties that influence crop growth and resource use efficiency. Mechanistic soil water balance and nitrogen process modules are embedded in ORYZA2000, providing opportunity to evaluate water and nitrogen fertilizer footprints in the rice ecosystem especially in the humid tropics where irrigated rice areas with small-holding rice farmers are concentrated. The IRRI Global Rice Model (IGRM) is a partial equilibrium structural econometric simulation model that includes 28 major rice producing, consuming and trading countries. The representative country model includes supply, demand, trade, ending stock and market equilibrium conditions. The model is used to develop a 10-year baseline projections of global supply, demand, trade and prices with a set of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, and technology changes in net exporting and net importing countries. The FAO/WFP Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod) The FAO Trade and Markets (EST) Division and the WFP Analysis and Nutrition Service (OSZA/VAM) have jointly developed a modeling system to analyze and quantify the outcome of shocks (economic, market, and production) on

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food security and needs for assistance across populations, livelihood groups, and areas in selected low-income and food-deficit countries. The SISMod can be used for estimating ex-ante, current, and ex-post shock impacts to support intervention decisions and wider policy and planning. SISMod is an MS Excel/Access-based tool that combines data sets from the World Bank, FAO, WFP and national sources on key household/livelihood, economic, market, and production data to model the effects of various key shock factors. The Analysis and Mapping of Impacts Under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF) is a comprehensive framework by the FAO of the United Nations that aims to address climate change impacts and adaptation planning targeted at improving the food security of vulnerable household groups. The AMICAF framework has four steps: 1) climate change impact assessment, which primarily uses the Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC) customized for the Philippines; 2) food insecurity vulnerability analysis at the household level to develop an analytical econometrics model with the best available national household data sets; 3) assessing livelihood adaptation to climate change at the community level, making use of information from steps 1 and 2; and 4) institutional analysis and creating awareness implemented with the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) and in discussion with the Philippine Commission on Climate Change (PCCC). Outputs from the steps are then integrated into a set of guidelines for implementation and adaptation in other countries. The Seasonal Forecasting Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)

provides a Windows package for constructing a seasonal climate forecast

model, performing model validation, and producing forecasts given

updated data. Its design has been tailored for producing seasonal

climate forecasts using model output statistic (MOS) corrections to

climate predictions from general circulation model (GCM), or for

producing forecasts using fields of sea-surface temperatures. Although

the software is specifically tailored for these applications, it can be used

in more general settings to perform canonical correlation analysis (CCA)

or principal components regression (PCR) on any data, and for any

application. Following roughly nine years of development and training,

CPT is used widely by national meteorological services and researchers

throughout the world.

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Workshop schedule

Day 1, Tuesday, September 3 8:00 Registration 8:15 Welcome remarks Sam Mohanty (IRRI)

8:25 Overview of the IMCASE project and Michael Sheinkman objectives of the workshop (IRRI)

Session 1 Integrating climate forecast outputs with crop models (Moderator: Reiner Wassman)

8:45 Integrating ORYZA and IGRM models Sam Mohanty 9:30 CCAFS/IRI (via Skype) James Hansen (IRI) 10:00 BREAK + Group picture

Session 2: Current efforts to assess impacts of climate on agricultural production (Moderator: Reiner Wassman)

10:15 Climate forecast outputs Anthony Lucero (CLIMPS, PAGASA) 10:45 Climate impact assessment for Emma Ares/ Philippine agriculture Juliet Ocate

(IAAS, PAGASA) 11:15 Analysis and mapping of impacts under Roberto Sandoval climate change for adaptation and AMICAF, FAO food security model 11:45 General discussions 12:00 LUNCH

Session 3: Integrating crop model outputs with econometric models – forecasting impacts on prices (Moderator: MVR Murty)

1:00 Monsoon forum/Climate outlook RIMES 1:30 Integrating AMICAF model with others 2:00 Integrating RIMES model with others 2:30 General discussions 3:00 BREAK

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Workshop schedule Session 4: Calculation of food security status from household

surveys (Moderator: David Dawe)

3:15 Analysis of Family Income and Emma Ala-Fabian Expenditure Survey (FIES) survey 2003 (NSO) 3:45 FAO Shock Model Cheng Fang (FAO) 4:15 General discussions

6:30 WELCOME DINNER IRRI Guesthouse

Day 2, Wednesday, September 4 Session 5: Climate Forecasts – constraints and sources of

uncertainties (Moderator: Charles Rodgers)

8:15 General discussions CCAFS/IRI (via Sykpe) James Hansen CLIMPS and IAAS, PAGASA RIMES 10:00 BREAK

Session 6: Bio-physical crop models – constraints and sources of uncertainties (Moderator: Tri Setiyono)

10:15 General discussions IRRI - ORYZA AMICAF RIMES Spatial aspects and modeling remote sensing 12:00 LUNCH

Session 7: Econometric models – constraints and uncertainties (Moderator: Val Pede)

1:15 General discussions IRRI - IGRM NSO BAS 3:00 BREAK

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Workshop schedule Session 8: Integrating multiple models – opportunities and

constraints (Moderator: Michael Sheinkman)

3:15 General discussions Questions/Constraints: How do we measure uncertainties when models are combined? Data gaps/data quality issues Outstanding research questions Can we model the impacts of different policy options? Constraints and uncertainties when different models are combine

Day 3, Thursday, September 5

8:30 Tour of IRRI EVEO

Rice World Museum

Genebank

Field visit (Ecological Intensification, Submergence, C4 )

IRRI Souvenir Shop

10.00 Synthesis of the 3-days workshop Closing session 12:00 LUNCH

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GENERAL INFORMATION

Arrival

The Secretariat will handle the transportation arrangement from the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) to IRRI, Los Baños and back. For those who will disembark at Terminal 1, please proceed to the International Organizations Desk (left end as you go out of the Customs area) at the arrival lobby. An IRRI travel agent will direct you to your vehicle/driver going to IRRI Los Baños. For those who will disembark at Terminal 2, an airport representative with an IRRI placard will meet and direct you to the IRRI driver. Los Baños is located 60 km south of Manila and it may take 1.5 to 2 hours of travel time, depending on traffic situations.

Venue

The inception workshop for the “Integrated Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity and Socio-Economic Status (IMCASE)” will be held at the Social Sciences Division Conference Room, Drillon Hall, IRRI headquarters at Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines, on September 3-5, 2013.

Accommodation

Majority of the participants will be accommodated at the M.S. Swaminathan Hall Dormitory (MSS Dorm) located inside the IRRI campus. Some will stay at the Anest Tower Hotel.

Meals and snacks

Snacks will be served at the workshop venue. For those staying at the MSS Dorm: Breakfast and dinner will be served at the IRRI Cafeteria. Please get your food at the counter and sign at the cashier whenever you take your meals. The IRRI cafeteria serves Filipino, international, vegetarian and Halal meals from 6:30 am to 7:30 pm. For those staying at the Guesthouse: Breakfast and dinner will be served downstairs.

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Lunch during the workshop will be served at the IRRI Dining Room located adjacent to the IRRI Cafeteria.

GENERAL INFORMATION

On September 3, 2013, a welcome dinner will be served at the IRRI Guesthouse. Participants staying at MSS Dorm will be picked-up by a van/coaster at 6:15 pm.

Local transportation

An IRRI shuttle is available on designated times and places to ferry the staff to and from the office. Below are the designated bus schedules: From IRRI to UPLB 0845, 0945, 1045, 1200, 1345, 1445, 1545, 1720, 1800, 1900, 2115, 2230 From UPLB to IRRI: 0715, 0730, 0745 – in front of DA-BAR office 0915, 1015, 1115 – Phy Sci Bldg. parking area 1245, 1300 – in front of DA-BAR office 1415, 1515 – Phy Sci Bldg. parking area 1720, 1925, 2125, 2240 – in front of Land Bank, UPLB gate Jeepneys (local transport) travel to and from IRRI during the day. Fare is PhP 8.00 per person.

Jeepneys and tricycles (motorcycles attached to a side car) may be hired when you return to IRRI late at night. Fare is negotiated at around P50 to P70 for tricycles and P100 to P150 for jeepneys.

Medical needs During the day, contact the Secretariat (2877). After office hours, contact the Matron’s Office (tel. 2352).

Internet The IRRI campus network is a closed network for security and reliability purposes. Several wifi or wireless internet hot zones are located inside the institute. Internet access can also be availed of at the IRRI Cybercafe, which is open from 5:00 pm to 9:00 pm weekdays and from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm on Saturdays.

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GENERAL INFORMATION

Departure The IRRI Transport Office recommends that participants leave Los Baños for the airport at least 4 hours before departure time. You will be notified when and where you will be picked up to leave for the airport. Airport tax is P750.

Los Baños headquarters location/address College, Los Baños 4031 Laguna, Philippines Telephone numbers:+ 63 (2) 580-5600; 845-0563; 844-3351 to 53 + 63 (49) 536-2701 to 2705 + 1 (650) 833-6620 (USA Direct) Fax numbers: + 63 (2) 580-5699; 845-0606 + 63 (49) 536-7995 + 1 (650) 833-6621 (USA Direct)

Contact persons

Tri Sentiyono ext. 2878/2627 Val Pede ext. 2721/2505 Emma Quicho : ext. 2877 OR +639192923181 (after workshop hours) Ellanie Cabrera: ext.2876 OR +639176209594 (after workshop hours) Ramil Gutierrez (Secretariat): ext 2627; + 639155694674 (after workshop hours) Christine Doctolero (Secretariat) ext 2505

Other helpful telephone numbers

Security (for Emergencies) ext. 2316/2444 Matron’s Office/Beni or Beth ext. 2352/2256 Note: These numbers are local numbers. If you are calling from outside IRRI premises but still located in the Los Baños area, please dial 536 2701 to 05 plus the local number.

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PARTICIPANTS

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Bangkok, Thailand

David Dawe Senior Economist [email protected]

Seevalingum Ramasawmy Food Security Statistician [email protected] Global Information and Early Warning Systems (GIEWS) Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy

Cheng Fang Economist [email protected]

International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Hanoi, Vietnam Rod Lefroy Regional Research Leader/Coordinator [email protected]

Keith Fahrney Senior Scientist - Agronomist [email protected]

Asian Development Bank (ADB) Mandaluyong City, Philippines

Charles Rodgers Senior Environment Specialist [email protected]

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International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Mexico

Urs Schulthess Consultant - Crop modeling & Remote Sensing [email protected]

Balwinder Singh Crop Modeler [email protected]

International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University

James W. Hansen Program Management Committee, Theme Leader [email protected]

Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) Quezon City, Philippines

Romeo Recide Director [email protected] Necita de Guzman Statistician Ma. Kathlenne Willy Mauyao Statistician

Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) Climatology and Agrometereology Division (CAD) Philippine Atmospheric and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Quezon City, Philippines

Anthony Joseph Lucero Senior Weather Specialist [email protected]

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Analiza Solis Weather Specialist II [email protected] Jorybell Masallo Weather Specialist II [email protected] Cherry Jane Cada Weather Specialist I [email protected] Remedios Liwanag Weather Specialist I [email protected]

Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) Climatology and Agrometereology Division (CAD) Philippine Atmospheric and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Quezon City, Philippines Emma Ares Weather Specialist II [email protected] Juliet Ocate Weather Observer IV c/o [email protected]

Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) , Manila, Philippines

Eulito Bautista AMICAF Project Manager [email protected] Roberto Sandoval Climate Change and Food Security Specialist [email protected]

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National Statistics Office (NSO) Quezon City, Philippines

Emma Ala-Fabian Provincial Statistics Officer [email protected]

IRRI Los Banos, Laguna Bruce Tolentino DDG-Partnership [email protected] Samarendu Mohanty Division Head, SSD [email protected] Michael Sheinkman Collaborative Research Scientist Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) [email protected] Valerien Pede Scientist - Economist [email protected]

Tri Setiyono Scientist – Crop Modeler [email protected] Andy Nelson Scientist – Geographer [email protected] Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb Post-doctoral Fellow [email protected]

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Arnel Rala Senior Associate Scientist [email protected]

Imelda Molina Associate Scientist [email protected]

Emma D. Quicho Associate Scientist [email protected]

Jorrel Aunario Assistant Scientist [email protected]

Harold Valera Assistant Scientist [email protected]

Ellanie Cabrera Assistant Scientist [email protected]

Prosperidad Abonete Assistant Scientist [email protected]

Lorena Villano Researcher [email protected]

Gina Zarsadias Associate Program Manager [email protected]

Rosendo Gutierrez Secretary [email protected]

Christine Doctolero Secretary [email protected]

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The CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food-secure future. CGIAR research is dedicated to reducing rural poverty, increasing food security, improving human health and nutrition, and ensuring more sustainable management of natural resources. It is carried out by 15 centers, which are members of the CGIAR Consortium, in close collaboration with hundreds of partner organizations, including national and

regional research institutes, civil society organizations, academia, and the private sector. The 15 research centers generate and disseminate knowledge, technologies, and policies for agricultural development through the CGIAR research programs. The CGIAR Fund provides reliable and predictable multiyear funding to enable research planning over the long term, resource allocation based on agreed priorities, and the timely and predictable disbursement of funds. The multidonor trust fund finances research carried out by the centers through the CGIAR research programs. CGIAR have almost 10,000 scientists and staff, unparalleled research infrastructure, and dynamic networks across the globe. Our collections of genetic resources are the most comprehensive in the world.

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) seeks to overcome the threats to agriculture and food security in a changing

climate, exploring new ways of helping vulnerable rural communities adjust to global changes in climate. CCAFS brings together the world’s best researchers in agricultural science, climate science, environmental and social sciences to identify and address the most important interactions, synergies and trade-offs between climate change and agriculture. CCAFS is implementing a uniquely innovative and transformative research program that addresses agriculture in the context of climate variability, climate change and uncertainty about future climate conditions. CCAFS integrates and applies the best and most promising approaches, tools and technologies. This initiative can only be realized with improved interactions among scientists, researchers, policy makers, civil society, and those who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Both local and global action is needed to accelerate the sharing of lessons on institutions, practices and technologies for adaptation and mitigation, with serious commitment to working in partnership, enhancing capacity and addressing societal differences. CCAFS is working across research disciplines, organizational mandates, and spatial and temporal scales to help address these pressing challenges.

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Based in the Philippines, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) is the oldest and largest international agricultural research institute in Asia. It is an autonomous, nonprofit rice research and education organization with staff based in 14 countries in Asia and Africa.

Our mission is to reduce poverty and hunger, improve the health of rice farmers and consumers, and ensure that rice production is environmentally sustainable. We work closely with most rice-producing and -consuming countries and their national agricultural research and extension systems as well as farming communities and a range of international, regional, and local organizations. In partnership with these national systems, we conduct research and provide training and education for those helping rice farmers by disseminating information and proven, sustainable technologies. IRRI was established in 1960 by the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations in cooperation with the Philippine government.