Changing the perception of retirement 9 February 2012 This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
May 24, 2015
Changing the perceptionof retirement
9 February 2012
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
Welcome
Stewart RitchiePast President of the Faculty of Actuaries
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
Who will care for the elderly?
Professor Robert RaesideEdinburgh Napier University
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
Who will care for the elderly?
LC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement
Professor Robert Raeside
Employment Research Institute
Edinburgh Napier University
Email: [email protected]
Trends
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
EU (27 countries)
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Eurostat Data
Proportion of Population over 65
EU (27
coun
tries
)
Czech
Rep
ublic
Germ
any
Irelan
dSpa
inIta
ly
Nethe
rland
s
Poland
Sweden
0
20
40
60
80
Employment Rate of older workers (55-64 yrs)
Country
%
UK Situation
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
20
06
20
11
20
16
20
21
20
26
20
31
Nu
mb
er
of
ho
us
eh
old
s (
Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
one person
other multi-person
lone parent
cohabiting couple
married couple
Distribution of Houses by Occupant Age
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Under25
25 -34
35 -44
45 -54
55 -64
65 -74
75 &over
%
All houses 2006
All houses 2031
One person houses2006
One person houses
Housing Trends
Basic Premises
1. As populations age and extended families become less, people become more dependent on social contact with friends.
2. Loneliness and social isolation are associated with poorer mental and physical wellbeing
Percentage change in social support
Male 65-79
Female 65-79
Males 80+
Female 80+
Someone outside household 1.5 -1.2 9.2 0.6Is there someone who will listen 1.1 4.1 -8.5 7.1Is there someone who will help in a crises 1.8 1.7 1.1 5.7Is there someone you can relax with 4.9 3.1 -1.3 6.2Anyone who really appreciates you 2.3 0.3 -3.3 7.3Anyone you can count on for comfort 4.4 1.9 -1.1 5.1Frequency of talking to neighbours 0.5 1.4 1.3 -3.8Frequency of meeting people 0.6 0.4 -0.7 -2Average 2.1 1.4 -0.4 3.3
Who gives support?Percentage change since 1997
65-79 80*
Male
nothing written in 11 8partner 45 30child 15 43sibling 4 2
other relative 5 4friend 22 12
Female
nothing written in 7 9partner 22 6child 26 46sibling 11 5
other relative 6 13friend 29 21
noth
ing
writ
ten
in
part
ner
child
sibl
ing
othe
r re
lativ
e
frie
nd
noth
ing
writ
ten
in
part
ner
child
sibl
ing
othe
r re
lativ
e
frie
nd
Male Female
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
65-79
80+
Overall Satisfaction with Life
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Mal
e65
-79
Fem
ale
65-7
9
Mal
e80
+Fe
mal
e80
+
Mal
e65
-79
Fem
ale
65-7
9
Mal
e80
+Fe
mal
e80
+
1997 2007
Mean Satisfaction
UCL
LCL
Mean
RegressionDependents
Overall Life Satisfaction General Happiness
Losing confidence Ability to Face Problems
Unhappy or Depressed
Independent Variables
Support – PC formed out of the five support variables
Frequency of meeting people
Support Person – Partner, Child or Friend Dummies
Control Variables
Health status over last 12 months
Financial status
Housing tenure
Overall Satisfaction with Life
65-79 yr olds 80+ yr olds
Variable Coefficient Standard Error P Value Coefficient
Standard Error P Value
(Constant) 7.079 .224 .000 7.275 .358 .000
frequency of talking to neighbours
.017 .057 .772 .077 .086 .371
frequency of meeting people .061 .065 .347 -.092 .098 .349
Support .182 .048 .000 .339 .089 .000
partner .163 .124 .188 -.044 .270 .870
child .420 .154 .007 .007 .248 .992
friend .030 .142 .833 .183 .319 .567
health status over last 12 months
-.500 .051 .000 -.739 .082 .000
financial situation -.199 .053 .000 .017 .097 .858
Males
Adjusted R2 24.7% 36.6% (Constant) 7.178 .221 .000 6.556 .384 .000
frequency of talking to neighbours
.256 .055 .000 .316 .078 .000
frequency of meeting people -.027 .063 .663 -.124 .106 .245
Support .140 .054 .009 .188 .082 .023
partner .329 .137 .017 1.542 .385 .000
child -.032 .132 .810 -.078 .200 .695
friend -.067 .128 .602 .370 .240 .123
health status over last 12 months
-.355 .051 .000 -.506 .090 .000
financial situation -.300 .054 .000 .079 .102 .442
Females
Adjusted R2 20.8% 18.8%
Findings
• Low explanatory power• Little evidence of the importance of who
gives support – but support is important• Partner is positive while friend appears a
negative impact!
Conclusions
• Populations are ageing and the extended family is decreasing• Social support is very important• Seems more close family support• Little reliance on friends• Smaller networks but level of support is high• Large multipurpose surveys might not be reaching the problem
Survey of Older People in Edinburgh
Mobility
Being in a social network is key
Importance of Cars
0 20 40 60 80
Al l Ages
17-24
25-59
60-69
70+
Al l Ages
17-24
25-59
60-69
70+
age
% of tri ps
Bus and CoachCar PassengerWal kCar Dri ver
Difficulty in usingGender Age Bus Taxi Train Car
Male60-69 yrs 18.87% 5.99% 13.76% 6.44%
70+ yrs 26.01% 10.30% 19.68% 10.14%
Female 60-69 yrs 24.29% 9.65% 18.53% 9.46%70+ yrs 40.32% 16.92% 25.83% 15.41%
0102030405060708090
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
%
Mal e 61 - 69Mal e 70+Femal e 61 -69Femal e 70+
Trends in Driving License holding
Females
Males
Helen ChungSwiss Re
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
A time to dance: health systems for active retirement
A time to dance: Health systems for longer livesHelen Chung MBBS MSc AIA, Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re
ILC-UK and Actuarial Profession debate, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 20
Healthy and active longer lives are a reality for some, and could be for more
Source: Chelmsford Borough Council, Older People's calendar: Tea dance in the Banqueting Room at Hylands House
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 21
for Health Systems:
– maintaining good health for longer
– staving off ill health
– treating and living with disease
Social
– retirement communities
– communities suitable to remain and retire in
Financial
– affording a healthy longer life
– when (and if) to retire?
Challenges
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 22
Individuals are not saving adequately
The average annual amount individuals would have to save in order to achieve a retirement income of 70% of salary (selected countries), EUR
Source: Aviva, 2010
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
United Kingdom
GermanyIreland France Spain Czech Republic
Poland Italy Turkey Hungary
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 23
Can morbidity be compressed?
Source: Fries, Booth & Chakravarty, Journal of Aging Research, 2011
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 24
chronic health problems have had time to accrue over a lifetime
multiple chronic diseases are common
physiological and social vulnerabilities are greater at oldest ages
increased risk of influenza, disability and falls
slower recovery
reduced mobility hampering access to care
higher personal care needs
Longer lives come with altered healthcare and prevention needs
Source: WEF 2012: Global Aging: Peril or Promise?
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 25
Health systems must evolve in response to the ageing of society to optimise health across the full life course
Greater emphasis on prevention and public health
Moving from hospital, acute care and institutional care to community-based care
Shared responsibilities increase effectiveness and efficiency: individuals to be partners in own care
Integration absolutely key: 'a coordinated continuum'
Education for health professionals to adapt
New models to draw on evidence
Changing health systems for changing needs
Source: WEF 2012: Global Aging: Peril or Promise?
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 26
Change your views on retirement
Source: Ocean Garden's Retirement Village, Perth, Australia. www..oceangardens.com.au and iStockphoto/Georgy Markov
Thank you
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 28
Legal notice
©2012 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivatives of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re.
Although all the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of the details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness thereof or for any damage resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or its Group companies be liable for any financial and/or consequential loss relating to this presentation.
George P MacKenzie Registrar General and Keeper of the Records
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
Scotland’s demography – an aging population
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Scotland's demography - an ageing population
George MacKenzie Registrar General and Keeper of the Records
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh - 9th February 2012
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Overview of presentation
• Introduction • Scotland’s current and future demographic
trends• Scotland’s ageing population• Households• Questions
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2010 was 5,222,100
Increase of 28,100 on 2009, highest since 1977
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,0001
85
5
18
62
18
69
18
76
18
83
18
90
18
97
19
04
19
11
19
18
19
25
19
32
19
39
19
46
19
53
19
60
19
67
19
74
19
81
19
88
19
95
20
02
20
09
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Pe
op
le
1857 passes 3m
Fastest percentage increase 1876 and 1878
1890 passes 4m
1900 largest rise
1912 first estimated fall
WW2*
1939 passes 5m for the first time
1974 5.4m highest ever level?
1924 largest and sharpest fall
1971 largest and fastest post WW2 rise
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Births, actual1 and projected2, Scotland, 1951-2035
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Pe
rso
ns
('0
00
s)
Projected2
1 calendar year2 2010-based mid-year projections
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Deaths in Scotland – main causes0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Cancer
Coronary / ischaemic heart disease
Stroke / cerebrovascular disease
Respiratory system diseases
Other circulatory system diseases
Digestive system diseases
Mental and behavioural disorders
Accidents
Nervous system diseases
Genitourinary system diseases
2000 2010
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Life expectancy at birth, Scotland, 1981-1983 to 2008-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19
81
-83
19
82
-84
19
83
-85
19
84
-86
19
85
-87
19
86
-88
19
87
-89
19
88
-90
19
89
-91
19
90
-92
19
91
-93
19
92
-94
19
93
-95
19
94
-96
19
95
-97
19
96
-98
19
97
-99
19
98
-00
19
99
-01
20
00
-02
20
01
-03
20
02
-04
20
03
-05
20
04
-06
20
05
-07
20
06
-08
20
07
-09
20
08
-10
Year
Ag
e
female male
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence intervals for Council areas, 2008-2010
(Males and Females)
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
Glasgow CityInverclyde
West DunbartonshireRenfrewshire
DundeeEilean Siar
North LanarkshireNorth AyrshireEast Ayrshire
ClackmannanshireSouth Lanarkshire
West LothianAberdeen City
FifeSouth Ayrshire
FalkirkHighland
MidlothianDumfries & Galloway
MorayArgyll & Bute
Edinburgh, City ofShetland Islands
East LothianOrkney Islands
Scottish BordersAngusStirling
AberdeenshireEast Renfrewshire
Perth & KinrossEast Dunbartonshire
Years
SCOTLAND
MALE FEMALE
Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence intervals for Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Deciles, 2008-
2010 (Males and Females)
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Years
MALE FEMALE
SCOTLAND
Leastdeprived
Mostdeprived
Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Healthy life expectancy
• Levels for women and men have been gradually increasing since 1980.
• In 2010 healthy life expectancy for women was 61.9 years, whilst levels for men were 59.5 years. Average levels of healthy life expectancy decreased by 0.7% between 2009 and 2010.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Deaths, Scotland, actual1 and projected2, 1951-2035
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Pe
rso
ns
('0
00
s)
Projected2
1 calendar year2 2010-based mid-year projections
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Migration
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Net migration, Scotland, 1951-2035
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Pe
rso
ns
('0
00
s)
Projected1
12010-based projections
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population, Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2035
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Per
son
s ('0
00s)
Actual 2010-based 2008-based 2006-based
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Scotland’s ageing population
1861
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Ag
e
Population (000's)
Females
Males
1931
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Ag
e
Population (000's)
Females
Males
1961
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Ag
e
Population (000's)
Females
Males
2001
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Ag
e
Population (000's)
Females
Males
1861 2010
2021
2035
Projected
Latest estimateCensus results
1911
1961
2001
2010
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
2021
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
2035
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
ePersons
Male Female
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Projected changes by age group over the next 25 years
• Children (0-15): 3% increase
• Working age: 7% increase
• State pension age: 26% increase
• 75+ : 82% increase
• 85+ : 147% increase
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Dependents1 per 100 working age population, Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2035
1 Between 2010 and 2020 the state pension age for women will rise from 60 to 65 and then between 2024 and 2026 will rise for both men and women to 66, and rises again to 68 by 2046.
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Dep
end
ents
per
100
wo
rkin
g a
ge
Actual 2010-based 2008-based 2006-based
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Pensioners, comparing proposed changes to SPA
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
1,150,000
1,200,000
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Year
Peo
ple
of
pen
sio
nab
le a
ge
Proposed Pensioners Original Pensioners
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Comparing pensionable age population, if SPA became 70+ by 2035 and current changes
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Per
son
s
People of pensionable age if 70+ in 2035 Current changes to SPA
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
As well as producing the principal projections, there are also a series of variant projections.
These are based on different plausible assumptions about fertility, mortality and
migration giving a more complete picture of what we might expect to see in the future.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Actual and projected total population, Scotland, under the 2010-based principal and selected
variant projections, 1981-2085
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illi
on
s)
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0HP = High populationHM = High migrationHF = High fertilityHL = High life expectancyP = Principal projectionLL = Low life expectancyLF = Low fertilityLM = Low migrationNC = Natural change onlyLP = Low population
HP
HMHF
HL
P
LLLFLM
NCLP
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Average age of Scotland’s population under the 2010-based principal and selected variant
projections, 2010-2035
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year
Ag
e in
yea
rs
Natural change
Low population
Low fertility
Low migration
High life expectancy
Principal
Low life expectancy
High migration
High fertility
High population
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Household change
• Household sizes are falling, and more people are living alone.
• This means that the number of households is increasing much faster than the population.
• Increase in elderly population (who are more likely to live alone).
• More people live alone in urban areas, and in more deprived areas.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Changes in household types
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1 adult 2 adults 1 adult withchildren
2+ adults withchildren
3+ adults
Type of household
Nu
mb
er o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
1981
2008
2033
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Projected percentage of people living alone, 2033
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
Age group
Per
centa
ge
of peo
ple
MalesFemales
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Questions?
For more information please contact:
NRS Statistics Customer Servicesemail: [email protected]: 0131 314 4299
Or look at our website www.gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Extra information!
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population increase, comparing selected variants with natural change only projection,
2015-2035
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Ad
dit
ion
al p
op
ula
tio
n (
000s
)
Low Migration Principal High Migration
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Births by mother’s country of birth
All countries of birth
United Kingdom, Isle of Man,
Channel IslandsNon-UK
Irish Republic including Ireland,
part not stated
Other European Union
Commonwealth Other countries
2004 53,957 49,738 4,219 230 844 1,822 1,3192005 54,386 49,711 4,675 272 996 1,942 1,4622006 55,690 50,468 5,222 257 1,326 2,112 1,5252007 57,781 51,431 6,350 303 2,085 2,265 1,6922008 60,041 52,434 7,607 321 2,793 2,657 1,8322009 59,046 51,062 7,984 276 3,032 2,690 1,9862010 58,791 50,615 8,176 297 3,197 2,634 2,048
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Births in Scotland, by mother’s country of birth, 2004-2010
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Bir
ths
Irish Republic including Ireland, part not stated Other European Union Commonwealth Other countries
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Comparisons with selected European
countries
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Projected percentage population change in selected European countries, 2010-
2035
Source: ONS and Eurostat
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Bul
garia
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Rom
ania
Ger
man
y
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Pol
and
Mal
ta
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Gre
ece
EU
27
Slo
veni
a
Net
herla
nds
Aus
tria
Fin
land
Den
mar
k
Italy
Sco
tland
Fra
nce
Spa
in
Nor
ther
n Ir
elan
d
Liec
hten
stei
n
Wal
es
Sw
eden
Bel
gium
Icel
and
Sw
itzer
land
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Eng
land
Nor
way
Irel
and
Cyp
rus
Luxe
mbo
urg
Per
cen
tag
e ch
ang
e
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Assumptions about the 2010-based principal and nine variant projections for Scotland
Fertility Life expectancy Life expectancy MigrationMales (2035) Females (2035)
1 Principal projection 1.70 80.9 85.1 +17,500Standard 'single component' variants2 High fertility 1.90 80.9 85.1 +17,5003 Low fertility 1.50 80.9 85.1 +17,5004 High life expectancy 1.70 83.3 86.7 +17,5005 Low life expectancy 1.70 78.4 83.5 +17,5006 High migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 +26,0007 Low migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 +9,000Combination variants8 High population 1.90 83.3 86.7 +26,0009 Low population 1.50 78.4 83.5 +9,000Special case scenario10 Zero migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 0
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Comparisons with other UK countries
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
• UK population is projected to increase from 62.3 million in 2010 to
73.2 million in 2035• An 18% rise (compared to Scotland’s 10%)
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
UK countries population growth, 2010-2035
95
100
105
110
115
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Ind
ex
(20
10 =
100
)
England Northern Ireland Wales Scotland
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
1981
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid-year population estimates.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
1991
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid-year population estimates.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
2001
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid-year population estimates.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
2011
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid-year population estimates.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
2021
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid-year population estimates.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Ag
e
Persons
Male Female
2035
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid-year population estimates.
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2010
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
19
51
-19
52
19
54
-19
55
19
57
-19
58
19
60
-19
61
19
63
-19
64
19
66
-19
67
19
69
-19
70
19
72
-19
73
19
75
-19
76
19
78
-19
79
19
81
-19
82
19
84
-19
85
19
87
-19
88
19
90
-19
91
19
93
-19
94
19
96
-19
97
19
99
-20
00
20
02
-20
03
20
05
-20
06
20
09
-20
10
Year to 30 June
Per
son
s ('
000s
)
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Migration summary:2009-2010
In Out Net
Rest of UK1 47,000 43,500 3,500Overseas 46,100 24,600 21,500
Total 2 93,100 68,100 24,900
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Where are overseas migrants coming from?
• ? Roughly:
In(08-09)
Out(08-09)
EU15 40% (35) 20% (40)
A8 + A2 15% (10) 10% (10)
Commonwealth 25% (30) 35% (30)
Other 20% (30) 35% (20)
• About 25% of overseas in-migrants are British citizens
• About 50% of overseas out-migrants are British citizens
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Migration assumptions• From 2016-17 there is projected to be an annual net
gain of 17,500 people to Scotland• +8,500 from rest of UK• +9,000 from overseas
• Higher net inflows projected for first 6 years of the projections, reflecting the recent (historically high) levels of in-migration, in particular, A8 migration
• Inflows from Eastern European accession countries (A8) assumed to have a net 0 from 2016-17
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Net migration and natural change, estimated and projected, 1951-2035
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Pe
rso
ns
('0
00
s)
Projected1
12010-based projections
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Scotland’s Age Specific Fertility 1983-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year
Bir
ths
per
1,0
00
wo
men
30-34
20-24
35-39
Under 20
40+
25-29
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
For Scotland fertility rates are assumed to..
• continue to increase for women in their 40s• remain stable for women in their 30s• and fall slightly for women in their 20s• the Total Fertility Rate is projected to remain
fairly stable until 2012 before falling to the long-term level
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Children (0-15)
• 0.91 million in 2010• Rises to peak of 0.97 million in 2023• 0.94 million in 2035• A increase of 3% over the 25 years
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Working Age
• 3.27 million in 2010• Rises to peak of 3.50 million in 2026• Falls slightly to 3.46 million in 2033• Rises to 3.50 million in 2035• An increase of 7% over 25 years• Takes into account changes in state pension
age
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Pension Age
• 1.04 million in 2010• 1.32 million in 2035• An increase of 26%• Takes into account changes in state pension
age
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Dependency Ratios
As the age structure of Scotland’s population changes, the dependency ratio – the ratio of
people aged under 16 and those of pensionable age per 100 people of working
age – is set to change as well
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
75 +
• 0.41 million in 2010• 0.74 million in 2035• An increase of 82%
National Records of Scotlandpreserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2010 was 5,222,100
Increase of 28,100 on 2009, highest since 1977
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Pe
rso
ns
('0
00
s)
Retirement in flux
David SinclairILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Retirement in fluxChanging perceptions of retirement and later life
David Sinclair, Assistant Director, Policy and Communications . ILC-UK
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Contents
History of retirement
– Retirement is a relatively modern construct
Where are we now
– Retirement has grown to 20 years
The future of retirement
– Citizenship in retirement – What are our rights and
responsibilities?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What is retirement for?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Retirement is relatively new
For most of human history, most
people have worked – either
formally or informally – up to or
close to the point of death, due
simply to economic compulsion.
(Generally) pensions provision
precedes the emergence of
‘retirement’ as a specific and
substantive period of life.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Year Early Developments
1670s First organised pension scheme for Royal Navy officers.
1880s Otto von Bismarck’s government provided the first state pension in Germany
1909 Old Age Pension introduced on ‘Pensions Day’, 1 January 1909. Means-tested benefit available at age 70.
1921 The budget made tax relief available for occupational pension schemes. Limits on tax relief introduced in 1947.
1925 Introduction of a contributory state pension for manual workers and other low-income workers. Eligibility at 65.
1946 National Insurance Act established a contributory state pension available to all.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Pension system beginning to crack
1978 The State Earnings-Related Pension Scheme (SERPS) was introduced to provide a ‘top up’ to the state pension.
1980 Abolishment of the ‘earnings link’ 1990s Scandals in management of occupational pensions let to
new regulations
2000s The closure of ‘defined benefit’ occupational pension schemes accelerated,
2002 SERPS replaced with State Second Pension2003 Introduction of Pension Credit
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Retirement today
Between 1881
and 2008 the
economic
activity rates of
UK men aged
65+ fell from
74 per cent to
10 per cent.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Retirement today
The average retirement age for men is 64.5 years, and for women 62.4 years (ONS)
Vast majority of people can expect to live for at least twenty years in retirement
Today’s pensioners benefit from a level of support from the state not available to previous generations – with many in receipt also of generous ‘defined benefit’ pensions from their employers.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/luc/6800884507/sizes/z/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Where are we now – The happy side
Recent upwards trend in
effective retirement ages
Staying in work for longer
has a positive well-being
effect for many people
Improved health in later
life means we have more
opportunities to enjoy
leisure pursuits
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
But its not all positive
Faltering growth and the end of generous pension provision, may create a compulsion to work for longer
Employment opportunities for older people appear to be concentrated in low-quality positions
Hierarchical workplace structures may have flattened, but older workers complain of their particular skills and experiences not being utilised and training not being offered.
‘Age-blindness’, a result of our success in challenging discrimination, is a positive development, but not if it disables employers from offering age-appropriate support to their older employees
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
An era of reform
2005 The Turner Commission: Work longer, poorer pensioners or pay more. Proposals: Reduce ‘qualifying years’ for a full basic state pension to 30; the introduction of ‘personal accounts’; increase in the SPA to 68 by 2046
2010 The government accelerated the increase in state pension age. It will reach 66 by 2020. In 2011, the government announced plans to increase state pension to 67 by 2028, almost a decade sooner than Turner.
2011 The coalition government announced plans for a single-tier state pension, abolishing the State Second Pension and set at a level higher than Pension Credit guarantee payments. Eligibility is likely to be based on residency rather than contribution records.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Challenges ahead
The increasing fiscal burden of an ageing society & the possibility
of intergenerational conflict as today’s taxpayers are asked to
fund the retirement of today’s retirees. Uncertainty over the nature and scale of social care funding Persistent disparity in life expectancy. The problem of isolation in ‘very old age’ due to the breakdown
of traditional families and neighbourhoods. Mobility and mental health problems associated with ‘very old
age’. The disruptive nature of technological development. The individualisation of the pensions system.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Citizenship in retirement
Citizenship implies that, in return
for recognising our duties such as
obeying the law and paying taxes,
we have certain entitlements.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Citizenship and pensions
UK pensions system has moved away from the notion of citizenship, and towards individualised provision
BUT - Citizen’s Pension is an attempt to overcome the complexity in the relationship between citizenship and retirement, while establishing a solid, universal state pension as the basis for private saving
http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickatkins/5888232320/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
What should we expect to contribute?
What kind of contributions
should people be making
in return for this support,
beyond paying taxes and,
presumably, National
Insurance contributions
during their working life?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sammers05/3692360687/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Rights and responsibilities: Employment
Older citizens have a
responsibility to remain in the
labour market, where
possible, to enable skills
retention and minimise fiscal
burdens on taxpayers.
Older people should have a right
to support from employers,
and society more generally, to
enable longer working lives.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/kheelcenter/5279905182/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Rights and Responsibilities: Employment
46 % would consider delaying retirement if their employer offered support for reducing their hours, or working more flexibly.
41% of men and 39% of women would consider delaying their retirement if they could defer their state pension entitlement in return for higher payments later.
43% of men and 41% of women would consider retiring later if they could combine income from their existing employer and an occupational pension.
Only 2% of men and 3% of women said that nothing would make them consider delaying retirement.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Rights and responsibilities: Volunteering
The idea of an obligation to volunteer is contradictory. Many older people are eager to volunteer in later life as part of an active retirement. Opportunities to volunteer must therefore be appropriate: flexible, fun, and oriented towards utilising the skills older people have developed during their working life.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
More time for volunteering?
73 per cent of EU residents do not undertake any formal voluntary work.
Half report they would volunteer if they had the time.
72.8 per cent of working-age people plan to volunteer more in retirement
Fewer than a third (+55) report that they would volunteer more if they had more time.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Rights and responsibilities: Housing and care Older people should have a right
to remain in their own home. It is vital for the well-being of many older care recipients
But it is fair that older people draw upon property wealth to help fund care costs
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Rights and responsibilities: Citizenship at end of life
We need a debate on rights and responsibilities
at end of life.
Do older citizens, in an ageing society, have a
right to have their lives prolonged for as long as
possible through intrusive medical
interventions – potentially at the expense of
treatments for people in ill-health earlier in the
life-course?
There is no easy solution but the emphasis, we
argue, should be on improving rather than
prolonging life.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pentaxeric/3702092530/sizes/o/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Conclusions
Over 20 years we have gone from crisis
to crisis, slowly recognising that
longevity means we cant fund the
support in old age which we expect.
The crisis in care funding is emblematic
of the fact that the scale and design of
formal welfare and support services for
older people has not kept pace with
increasing longevity.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dulcielee/6228005365/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
There is a role for Government. We need national “retirement” strategies/policy incorporating all Government activities, not just DWP.
We must all difficult questions – “what is the point of retirement?”– What are the rights and responsibilities for old
age?– Can we debate rights and responsibilities
across the life-course? We must better recognise that retirement is a
process rather than an event.http://www.flickr.com/photos/jamelah/16144383/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
And we must move quicker on gradual retirement ‘gradual retirement’ should
provide a potential solution to the challenges facing retirement.
The financial incentive structure must also be geared towards encouraging gradual retirement.
Employers must create and support opportunities for gradual retirement.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We need to abandon the notion that people make contributions in their working life in return for support in retirement, that is, that retirement marks the point where older people’s contributions are no longer necessary or valuable.
Continuing as a productive member of society in retirement is both a responsibility and a right.
We should expect older people to contribute to society in return for support in retirement – but equally, many older people are eager to contribute to society, and we need to ensure opportunities to make meaningful contributions are available.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Older Workers - 1948
Older Workers - trailer 1948
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many thanks
David Sinclair
Head of Policy and Research
International Longevity Centre
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda
Panel Response
Drummond Black FSB
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
Changing the perceptionof retirement
9 February 2012
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re