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Calculating the Effects of a
Nuclear Explosion at aEuropean Military Base
Matthew McKinzie, Ph.D. (NRDC), Erwin Polreich, Ing. Mag. (ZAMG)
Dlia Arnold, Ph.D. (ZAMG), Christian Maurer, Ph.D. (ZAMG),
and Dr. Gerhard Wotawa (ZAMG)
ZAMG: Zentralanstalt fr Meteorologie und Geodynamik , Vienna, Austria
NRDC: Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC
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What are the effects of a nuclear explosion?
Crater Blast Overpressure
Blast Dynamic Pressure
Thermal Radiation
Initial Nuclear Radiation
Local Fallout
Global Fallout
Electromagnetic Pulse
important
effects in
military
planning
important
widespread
humanitarian
effects
50%
35%
5%
10%
Energ
ypartition
ofa
nuclearexplosion
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A Hypothetical Scenario
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A Standard Military Target
46.031278 N, 12.596778 E
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Choosing a Nuclear Yield
Data Source: Kristensen, Hans M., and Robert S. Norris. "Russian nuclear forces, 2014." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists70.2 (2014): 75-
85; and US nuclear forces, 2014." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists70.1 (2014): 85-93.
US Mk-12A
ICBM
US Mk-21 SERV ICBM
US Trident MK -4, -4A
US Trident Mk-5
UK Trident
French
M45 SLBM
RF 12M Topol
RF 12M1, M2 Topol-M
RF RSM-50
SLBM
RF RSM-54SLBM
RF RSM-56 SLBM
RF SS-18 M6 ICBM
RF SS-19 M3 ICBM
RF SS-25 ICBM
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Yield
(kt)
768
220250
384
225 384
150 68
192
460
144
100
144
180
117
384
240
150 68
Numberof
Nuclear
Weapons
Type of
Nuclear
Weapon
200 kt
3,690 Nuclear Weapons Shown: 1 Million Kilotons
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Choosing a Height of Burst
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
0,5
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425
Nuclear Explosion Height of Burst (meters)
PercentofActivityin
LocalFallout
Overpressurenear*
GroundZero(ps
i)
*Overpressure at 100 meters from ground zero
200 kt Nuclear Explosion
Red: Overpressure
Blue: Activity
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Crater
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Blast
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Initial Radiation
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Thermal Radiation
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:4 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:8 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:12 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:16 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:20 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:24 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:36 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:48 hours after detonation(historical November winds)
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U.S. DoD HPAC Model (Hazard Predication
and Assessment Capability)
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U.S DoD HPAC: Casualty Tables
For an Unsheltered Population
For a Sheltered Population
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ZAMG Emergency Activities FLEXPART model
Examples for ZAMG emergency activities using the FLEXPART model
Nuclear emergenciesTAMOS Model
Plume transport and
nuclear fallout
computation Accumulated deposition
Time-integrated concen-
trations
Weather bulletins
Volcano eruptions
Calculation of fine ash at
flight levels
Calculation of SO2
pollution
Integration of satellite
information, source term
estimates
Atmosphericbacktracking
Investigation of
interesting
measurements
CTBT Verification
WMO designation
(RSMC)
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Developing a Source Term for FLEXPART:
Fallout Cloud Geometry
View of Fallout
Cloud Model
40 km from
Ground Zero
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Developing a Source Term for FLEXPART:
Fallout Cloud Geometry
View of Fallout Cloud Model from within Austria
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Developing a Source Term for FLEXPART: Radionuclides
Total activity from a nuclear explosion: 450 megacuries per kiloton of fission yield
at 1 hour after detonation.
Our Scenario: 200 kt x 450 megacuries/kt x 75% fission x 50% in local fallout =
33,750 megacuries initial source term.
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October 09, 2014
Precipitation
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October 10, 2014
Precipitation
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October 11, 2014
Precipitation
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October 09, 2014
Cesium-137 Deposition
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October 10, 2014
Cesium-137 Deposition
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October 11, 2014
Cesium-137 Deposition
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November 12, 2014
Precipitation
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November 13, 2014
Precipitation
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November 14, 2014
Precipitation
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November 11, 2014
Cesium-137 Deposition
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November 12, 2014
Cesium-137 Deposition
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November 13, 2014
Cesium-137 Deposition
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Concluding Thoughts:
Open-source information can be used to calculate the effects of a nuclearexplosion in terms of crater, blast, thermal, initial radiation and fallout
effects.
Military targeting requirements for destruction of hardened objects
involves surface or near-surface bursts, maximizing fallout.
For a 200kt nuclear explosion, the prompt nuclear weapons effects are far
more localized than the fallout effect, which were shown to extend across
international boundaries for this hypothetical scenario.
Variations on fallout patterns with weather conditions are a motivation for
non-nuclear weapon states to develop a capability to model nuclear
explosive effects to mitigate humanitarian impacts of nuclear conflict.
Humanitarian impacts of nuclear war continue to be relevant to oursocieties, given the large nuclear arsenals retained decades after the end of
the Cold War, and new nuclear weapons development in many states.
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Nuclear emergencies standard protocol used
Unknown source term: usage of 1 Bq release (3 hours)
Known source term: usage of source term
Weather bulletin: discussion of weather situation and development with regard to
accident
Standard computations include 137Cs accumulated deposition (24/48 hrs), 137Cs
time-integrated concentration (24/48 hrs)
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ZAMG Austria
Zentralanstalt fr Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG)
Weather Forecasts, warnings and advisories
National seismological Service, CTBT Verification
Meteorological, climatological and seismic monitoring
Environmental emergencies nuclear accidents, chemical accidents,
volcano eruptions
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FLEXPART model
Lagrangian particle dispersion model
Source code and documentaiton can be downloaded from internet:
http://flexpart.eu
Users include research institutions, private companies, weather services (ZAMG)
and operational organisations (CTBTO)
Many different meteorological input data can be used:
ECMWF
NCEP
Aladin/Alaro
Mesoscale Model WRF
El t ti P l
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Electromagnetic Pulse