-
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this
report
Company Update | Oil & GasCompany Update | Oil &
GasCompany Update | Oil & GasCompany Update | Oil &
GasCompany Update | Oil & Gas
June 22, 2010
Indraprastha GasIndraprastha GasIndraprastha GasIndraprastha
GasIndraprastha GasTurning over a new leaf
The hike in CNG prices have eliminated key headwinds for IGL
viz. expected margin
contraction and reduction in earnings and return ratios, to a
large extent. Relative
ease in pass through of the APM gas price hike indicates absence
of regulatory
risks in the near term. This coupled with strong CNG conversions
and growth in
newer geographies would result in strong earnings growth and
re-rating of the
stock. We revise our target price on the stock to Rs301 (Rs210)
owing to the upward
revision in earnings estimates and lower WACC estimates (to
reflect lower risk).
WWWWWe upgrade the stock to Buy from Reduce earliere upgrade the
stock to Buy from Reduce earliere upgrade the stock to Buy from
Reduce earliere upgrade the stock to Buy from Reduce earliere
upgrade the stock to Buy from Reduce earlier.....
Margin erosion risk subsides:Margin erosion risk subsides:Margin
erosion risk subsides:Margin erosion risk subsides:Margin erosion
risk subsides: We had concerns over sustainability of IGL's
high margins, which we believed were fueled by lower gas costs
(subsidised gas).
Also, post end of marketing exclusivity in CY2011 we believed a
level playing field
would emerge and IGL would have to source gas at higher prices
in turn squeezing
its marketing margins. However, with the hike in CNG prices, our
assumption of
margin fall no longer holds good. It also points at the absence
of regulatory risks in
the near term. Going ahead, given that KG-D6 and APM gas prices
are freezed till
FY2014, IGL would not be required to make significant CNG price
hikes. Thus, the
margin erosion risk has subsided substantially.
VVVVVolumes to propel profitability: olumes to propel
profitability: olumes to propel profitability: olumes to propel
profitability: olumes to propel profitability: We expect strong
growth in CNG conversion in
IGL's area of operation driven by discretionary CNG demand due
to better
economics. This coupled with strong growth expected in the
domestic PNG segment
is likely to drive the company's volume growth going ahead. We
expect CNG and
PNG volumes to register a CAGR of 14.4% and 36.2% over
FY2010-12E respectively,
resulting in overall volumes CAGR of 16.9% during the mentioned
period. Thus,
strong volume growth coupled with stable EBDITA/scm are likely
to drive the
company’s profitability (CAGR of 17.5% over FY2010-12E) going
ahead.
Stock Info
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Sector Oil & Gas
Market Cap (Rs cr) 3,575
Beta 0.5
52 Week High / Low 266/126
Avg Daily Volume 178384
Face Value (Rs) 10
BSE Sensex 17,750
Nifty 5,317
Reuters Code IGAS.BO
Bloomberg Code IGL@IN
Promoters 45.0
MF / Banks / Indian FIs 32.4
FII / NRIs / OCBs 11.9
Indian Public / Others 10.7
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 1.9 23.9 22.7
IGL 14.0 95.6 110.8
Investment Period 12 months
BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYCMP Rs255Target Price Rs301
Source: Company, Angel Research
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
TTTTTotal operating Incomeotal operating Incomeotal operating
Incomeotal operating Incomeotal operating Income 853 853 853 853
853 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,612 1,612 1,612 1,612 1,612
1,985 1,985 1,985 1,985 1,985
% chg 20.8 27.1 48.7 23.1
Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profitrofitrofitrofitrofit 172 172 172
172 172 215 215 215 215 215 244 244 244 244 244 298 298 298 298
298
% chg (1.1) 24.9 13.4 21.9
OPM (%) 35.2 35.7 29.3 30.5
EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs) 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3
12.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 21.3 21.3
21.3 21.3 21.3
P/E (x) 20.7 16.6 14.6 12.0
P/BV (x) 5.2 4.3 3.6 3.0
RoE (%) 27.4 28.6 27.0 27.6
RoCE (%) 34.8 38.1 33.8 31.6
EV/Sales (x) 3.9 3.2 2.2 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 8.9 7.7 6.3
Amit VAmit VAmit VAmit VAmit Voraoraoraoraora+91 22 4040 3800
Ext: 322
[email protected]
Deepak PDeepak PDeepak PDeepak PDeepak
Pareekareekareekareekareek+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 340
[email protected]
-
June 22, 2010 2
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Investment Arguments
Margin erosion risks subside substantially
Following increase in the APM gas prices, IGL has hiked the
prices of compressed
natural gas (CNG) by over 26%. The CNG rates in Delhi have
increased by Rs5.6/kg
to Rs27.5/kg from Rs21.9/kg. Similarly, the prices in Noida,
Greater Noida and
Ghaziabad stand increased at Rs30.6/kg. The hike has come as a
positive surprise as
we had been building in 50% pass through of the APM as well as
non-APM gas price
hike in our estimates. Earlier statements by the Petroleum
Secretary and the government
had also indicated that IGL may not be able to fully pass
through the price hike
needed to offset the impact on margins.
We had estimated the required increase in the CNG prices on
account of the APM gas
price hike at around Rs3.4/kg (in FY2011E). Hence, the price
hike of Rs5.6/kg more
than offsets the increase in the APM gas price (refer Exhibit
1). According to
management, the increase could be further segregated into
Rs5.0/kg on account of
increase in gas cost, and the balance to the increase in
operating expenditure. It may
be noted here that IGL has changed over from the gas-based
compressors to electric
compressors, which has resulted in reduction in the repairs and
maintenance costs.
However, the same has increased the company's operating
expenditure.
Exhibit 1: APM gas prices
break-upPPPPParticularsarticularsarticularsarticularsarticulars
FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10 FY11EFY11EFY11EFY11EFY11E
FY12EFY12EFY12EFY12EFY12E
Consumer Gas Price (TSCM) (10,000) Cal. 3,840 6,322 6,818
Consumer Gas Price(TSCM) (8,300) Cal. 3,187 5,247 5,659
Royalty (@10%) (TSCM) 266 623 623
Purchase tax (TSCM) 117 274 274
Gas marketing margins (TSCM) 200 200 200
HBJ Transportation charges
(including service tax) (TSCM) 1,061 1,061 1,061
DESU Maruti Transportation charges
(including service tax)(TSCM) 614 633 652
Total Price (TSCM) 5,445 8,038 8,469
PPPPPrice per SCMrice per SCMrice per SCMrice per SCMrice per
SCM 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
PPPPPrice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg)rice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31
kg)rice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg)rice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg)rice
per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg) 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5
10.5 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1
Required Increase in CNG prices per KgRequired Increase in CNG
prices per KgRequired Increase in CNG prices per KgRequired
Increase in CNG prices per KgRequired Increase in CNG prices per Kg
3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56Source: Company,
Angel Research
We believe that the increase of Rs5.0/kg on account of increase
in gas cost captures
the increase in the APM gas prices (Rs3.4/kg), higher costs
incurred in procuring
KG-D6 gas and R-LNG and higher gas costs for the domestic PNG
segment.
CNG rates in Delhi have increased byCNG rates in Delhi have
increased byCNG rates in Delhi have increased byCNG rates in Delhi
have increased byCNG rates in Delhi have increased by
Rs5.6/kg to Rs27.5/kg from Rs21.9/kgRs5.6/kg to Rs27.5/kg from
Rs21.9/kgRs5.6/kg to Rs27.5/kg from Rs21.9/kgRs5.6/kg to Rs27.5/kg
from Rs21.9/kgRs5.6/kg to Rs27.5/kg from Rs21.9/kg.....
The hike has come as a positive surpriseThe hike has come as a
positive surpriseThe hike has come as a positive surpriseThe hike
has come as a positive surpriseThe hike has come as a positive
surprise
as we had been building in 50% passas we had been building in
50% passas we had been building in 50% passas we had been building
in 50% passas we had been building in 50% pass
through of the APM as well as non-APMthrough of the APM as well
as non-APMthrough of the APM as well as non-APMthrough of the APM
as well as non-APMthrough of the APM as well as non-APM
gas price hike in our estimatesgas price hike in our
estimatesgas price hike in our estimatesgas price hike in our
estimatesgas price hike in our estimates
According to management, the increaseAccording to management,
the increaseAccording to management, the increaseAccording to
management, the increaseAccording to management, the increase
could be further segregated intocould be further segregated
intocould be further segregated intocould be further segregated
intocould be further segregated into
Rs5.0/kg on account of increase in gasRs5.0/kg on account of
increase in gasRs5.0/kg on account of increase in gasRs5.0/kg on
account of increase in gasRs5.0/kg on account of increase in
gas
cost, and the balance to the increase incost, and the balance to
the increase incost, and the balance to the increase incost, and
the balance to the increase incost, and the balance to the increase
in
operating expenditureoperating expenditureoperating
expenditureoperating expenditureoperating expenditure
-
June 22, 2010 3
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
The PNG prices have been left unchanged by IGL as any hike in
the same would hit
the economics or inducement to switch from domestic LPG to
domestic PNG.
Currently, the new PNG user enjoys a marginal advantage of 3.4%
over the domestic
LPG users.
Earlier, we had harbored concerns over sustainability of the
company's high-margin
business model, as the margins were fueled largely by the lower
gas costs (subsidised
gas). IGL charged its CNG and PNG customers based on the prices
of alternative
liquid fuel, while it procured subsidised gas. Thus, IGL enjoyed
the benefits of subsidy
rather than passing it on to customers. We held that post end of
IGL's marketing
exclusivity in CY2011 a level playing field would emerge wherein
IGL would be
required to source gas at higher prices in turn squeezing its
marketing margins.
However, with the current hike in CNG prices by a significant
25.6%, our assumption
of margin compression no longer holds good. It also points at
the absence of
regulatory risks in the near term.
Going ahead, given that KG-D6 and APM gas prices are freezed
till FY2014, IGL
would not be required to make significant CNG price hikes
barring a minor increase
due to change in the procurement mix and increase in operating
expenditure. Thus,
the margin erosion risk has subsided substantially. Moreover, in
spite of the recent
increase in the CNG prices in the NCT, the CNG prices in the
region are the least in
the country owing to the lower taxes levied by the Delhi
government (refer Exhibit
4 & 5). Therefore, further increase in the CNG prices would
not be a tough task.
Exhibit 2: Weighted Average gas
pricesPPPPParticularsarticularsarticularsarticularsarticulars
FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10 FY11EFY11EFY11EFY11EFY11E
FY12EFY12EFY12EFY12EFY12E
APM gas purchased (mmscm)APM gas purchased (mmscm)APM gas
purchased (mmscm)APM gas purchased (mmscm)APM gas purchased (mmscm)
748748748748748 767767767767767 803803803803803
as % of the total gas (%) 89.8 77.3 70.5
Cost of APM gas (Rs/scm) 5.4 8.0 8.5
Non-APM Gas purchased (mmscm)Non-APM Gas purchased
(mmscm)Non-APM Gas purchased (mmscm)Non-APM Gas purchased
(mmscm)Non-APM Gas purchased (mmscm) 8585858585 225225225225225
336336336336336
as % of the total gas (%) 10.2 22.7 29.5
Cost of Non-APM gas (Rs/scm) 11.9 12.1 11.8
WWWWWeighted average cost of gas (Rs/scm)eighted average cost of
gas (Rs/scm)eighted average cost of gas (Rs/scm)eighted average
cost of gas (Rs/scm)eighted average cost of gas (Rs/scm)
6.16.16.16.16.1 9.09.09.09.09.0 9.49.49.49.49.4
PPPPPrice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg)rice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31
kg)rice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg)rice per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg)rice
per Kg (1 SCM = 1.31 kg) 8.08.08.08.08.0 11.711.711.711.711.7
12.412.412.412.412.4
Required Increase in CNG prices per KgRequired Increase in CNG
prices per KgRequired Increase in CNG prices per KgRequired
Increase in CNG prices per KgRequired Increase in CNG prices per Kg
3.743.743.743.743.74 0.650.650.650.650.65Source: Company, Angel
Research
Exhibit 3: PNG economics for domestic consumers
Cost of Domestic LPG (14.2kg cylinder, Rs) 310
Rs/ kg 21.9
Calorific value of LPG (Kcal) 11,007
Price for Rs/10,000Kcal 19.9
Cost for new PNG connection (Rs/scm) 15.9
Calorific value of PNG sold (Kcal) 8,300
Price for Rs/10,000Kcal 19.2
Price advantage over LPG (Rs) 0.68
Advantage (%)Advantage (%)Advantage (%)Advantage (%)Advantage
(%) 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4Source: Company, Angel Research
Going ahead, given that KGGoing ahead, given that KGGoing ahead,
given that KGGoing ahead, given that KGGoing ahead, given that
KG-D6 and-D6 and-D6 and-D6 and-D6 and
APM gas prices are freezed till FY2014,APM gas prices are
freezed till FY2014,APM gas prices are freezed till FY2014,APM gas
prices are freezed till FY2014,APM gas prices are freezed till
FY2014,
IGL would not be required to makeIGL would not be required to
makeIGL would not be required to makeIGL would not be required to
makeIGL would not be required to make
significant CNG price hikessignificant CNG price
hikessignificant CNG price hikessignificant CNG price
hikessignificant CNG price hikes
-
June 22, 2010 4
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
IGL's profitability and fair value estimates are highly
sensitive to the per unit change in
its gross margins. To put things in perspective, if the gross
margins are reduced by
Rs1.0/scm from FY2011E onwards, our fair value estimates would
decline by a
whopping 26% to Rs221/share. Similarly, our earnings estimates
also stands reduced
by 25.4% and 23.9% for FY2011E and FY2012E respectively under
the same scenario.
However, with the recent increase in the CNG prices, the pricing
risk has subsidised to
a greater extent. Factoring the same, we have reduced our
discount rate/WACC
(weighted average cost of capital) by 50bp to 11.5% from 12.0%
earlier.
Volumes to propel profitability
The conversion economics continues to remain strong irrespective
of the recent hike in
CNG prices, as CNG vehicle continue offer savings of around
57.3% over the petrol
driven vehicles (largely on account of lower taxes on CNG
compared to Petrol prices).
Moreover, in Delhi penetration of the CNG vehicles is still at
lower levels and launch
of the newer CNG variants cars by the automotive companies could
keep conversions
in high growth orbit.
Exhibit 4: Comparative Taxes on CNG
pricesStateStateStateStateState NCT of DelhiNCT of DelhiNCT of
DelhiNCT of DelhiNCT of Delhi Uttar PUttar PUttar PUttar PUttar
Pradeshradeshradeshradeshradesh HaryanaHaryanaHaryanaHaryanaHaryana
GujaratGujaratGujaratGujaratGujarat MumbaiMumbaiMumbaiMumbaiMumbai
ThaneThaneThaneThaneThane PunePunePunePunePune
Applicable TApplicable TApplicable TApplicable TApplicable
Taxesaxesaxesaxesaxes
Service Tax on
City Gas Network (%) 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30
10.30
Excise Duty +
Educational Cess (%) 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42%
14.42
VAT (%) N.A. 13.50 12.50 12.25 12.50 12.50 12.50
Additional Vat N.A. N.A. N.A. 2.50 N.A. N.A. N.A.
Octroi N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 5% of Gas Cost 2.50Source:
Infraline, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Comparative CNG prices across key cities in India
Name of the CityName of the CityName of the CityName of the
CityName of the City CNG PCNG PCNG PCNG PCNG Price (Rs/kg)rice
(Rs/kg)rice (Rs/kg)rice (Rs/kg)rice (Rs/kg)
Delhi 27.5
Rajahmundry 28.0
Kanpur 29.0
Bareilly 29.0
Surat, Bharuch, Ankleswar 30.0
Noida 30.6
Greater Noida 30.6
Ghaziabad 30.6
Lucknow 31.0
Mumbai 31.5
Mira Bhayandar 31.7
Navi Mumbai 31.8
Thane 32.4
Agra 35.0
Pune 35.4Source: Infraline, Angel Research
With the recent increase in the CNGWith the recent increase in
the CNGWith the recent increase in the CNGWith the recent increase
in the CNGWith the recent increase in the CNG
prices, the pricing risk has subsidised toprices, the pricing
risk has subsidised toprices, the pricing risk has subsidised
toprices, the pricing risk has subsidised toprices, the pricing
risk has subsidised to
a greater extent. Fa greater extent. Fa greater extent. Fa
greater extent. Fa greater extent. Factoring the same, weactoring
the same, weactoring the same, weactoring the same, weactoring the
same, we
have reduced our discount rate/Whave reduced our discount
rate/Whave reduced our discount rate/Whave reduced our discount
rate/Whave reduced our discount rate/WAAAAACCCCCCCCCC
(weighted average cost of capital) by(weighted average cost of
capital) by(weighted average cost of capital) by(weighted average
cost of capital) by(weighted average cost of capital) by
50bp to 11.5% from 12.0%50bp to 11.5% from 12.0%50bp to 11.5%
from 12.0%50bp to 11.5% from 12.0%50bp to 11.5% from 12.0%
-
June 22, 2010 5
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Exhibit 6: CNG saving over
PetrolPPPPParticularsarticularsarticularsarticularsarticulars
FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007 FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008
FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009 FY2010FY2010FY2010FY2010FY2010
CurrentCurrentCurrentCurrentCurrent
Petrol (Rs/litre) 45.37 43.65 47.25 43.93 47.43
CNG (Rs/kg) 18.98 19.18 18.90 20.55 27.50
Equivalent petrol prices (Rs/kg) 62 59 64 60 64
Savings (Rs/kg) 43 40 45 39 37
Savings over petrol (%) 69.2% 67.6% 70.5% 65.5% 57.3%Source:
PPAC, Angel Research
We expect strong growth in CNG conversion in IGL's area of
operation driven by
discretionary CNG demand due to better economics. This coupled
with strong growth
expected in the domestic PNG segment is likely to drive the
company's volume growth
going ahead. We expect CNG volumes to register a CAGR of 14.4%
over
FY2010-12E. The growth would be driven by additional 2,000 buses
expected to hit
the road in FY2011E on account of the Commonwealth games along
with strong
conversion of private vehicles. We expect private vehicle
conversion at 4,250/month
for FY2011E and FY2012E. Moreover, given talks of possible
deregulation of the auto
fuel prices, the conversion trend could further gather momentum
from current levels
and pose upside risk to our estimates. To keep pace with
increasing CNG demand,
IGL is likely to commission additional 53 CNG stations over the
period.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Strong vehicle conversions
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
CNG Buses Auto RTV (LCVs) Others
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: CNG stations
134146 153
163181
191
219
-
50
100
150
200
250
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
-
June 22, 2010 6
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
The company's PNG segment contributes a mere 13% to overall
revenues. Lowercontribution is however due to greater focus on
development of the CNG infrastructurein the past adhering to the
judicial verdict. However, now with most of IGL's CNGinfrastructure
in place, it has turned its focus towards the fast-growing PNG
segment.IGL expects to add 50,000 domestic users annually. Given
the relatively lowerpenetration of PNG in the region, we believe
the targets can be achieved and aidvolumes. With this, we expect
the PNG segment volumes to post a robust CAGR of36.2% over
FY2010-12E.
Owing to the significant improvement in gas availability in the
country, IGL has alsostarted tapping the industrial users. IGL's
industrial sales volumes constitute less than5% of its overall
sales volumes unlike peer Gujarat Gas, which has higher share
ofindustrial volumes. Thus, IGL's industrial segment has huge
potential to ramp up inthe long run particularly with Delhi and its
adjoining areas having demand of around3-4mmscmd. The company
currently supplies to around 25-26 users in the industrialsegment,
with the off-take increasing from around 1,600/scm per day per user
inFY2010 to 4,500/scm per day per user now.
Overall volumes are expected to register 16.9% CAGR over
FY2010-12E on robustvolume growth expected in CNG and PNG. We
estimate revenue to register a robustCAGR of 35.5% over FY2010-12E
on the back of strong volumes and higher realisations(on account of
the 25.5% hike in CNG prices undertaken in Delhi to pass through
theincrease in gas cost). Thus, we expect bottom-line to register
17.5% CAGR over thementioned period.
Growth beyond NCT - Scalability concerns reducing
Apart from the margin erosion concerns, lack of growth in the
newer areas, viz. Noida,Greater Noida, Ghaziabad, Faridabad and
Gurgoan impacted performance of thestock on the bourses.
Pertinently, growth beyond the NCT was restricted for IGL due
tolitigation and gas allocation constraints in the earlier years.
In case of the NCR townsof Faridabad and Gurgoan, networks were
built by Adani Energy and Haryana CityGas respectively, which
prevented entry of IGL into these regions. Also, gas
allocationinitially made to IGL for these regions were given to
respective companies on thedirections of the Supreme Court. IGL's
expansion plan in Ghaziabad was hit due to
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: EBITDA/scm likely to hold on
4.805.22
5.48
4.554.99 5.12
5.72
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011EFY2012E
(Rs/
scm
)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: PAT growth trend
14.5
30.0
26.5
(1.1)
24.9
13.4
21.9
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FY2006 FY2008 FY2010 FY2012E
PAT (Rs Cr) PAT growth (%)
(Rs
cr)
(%)
WWWWWe expect the PNG volumes to post ae expect the PNG volumes
to post ae expect the PNG volumes to post ae expect the PNG volumes
to post ae expect the PNG volumes to post arobust CArobust CArobust
CArobust CArobust CAGR of 36.2% over FY2010-12EGR of 36.2% over
FY2010-12EGR of 36.2% over FY2010-12EGR of 36.2% over FY2010-12EGR
of 36.2% over FY2010-12E
Overall volumes are expected to registerOverall volumes are
expected to registerOverall volumes are expected to registerOverall
volumes are expected to registerOverall volumes are expected to
register16.9% CA16.9% CA16.9% CA16.9% CA16.9% CAGR over FY2010-12E
onGR over FY2010-12E onGR over FY2010-12E onGR over FY2010-12E onGR
over FY2010-12E onrobust volume growth expected in CNGrobust volume
growth expected in CNGrobust volume growth expected in CNGrobust
volume growth expected in CNGrobust volume growth expected in
CNGand PNGand PNGand PNGand PNGand PNG
-
June 22, 2010 7
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
authorisation issues with the regulator. However, with the
regulatory concerns alreadyaddressed by the Delhi High Court, we
expect growth in Noida, greater Noida andGhaziabad to take care of
the scalability concerns.
According to the PNGRB, the demand estimates for Ghaziabad
currently stands closeto 0.5mmscmd (18.4% of IGL's expected
throughput for FY2011E), which could rise to0.94mmscmd in the long
run. Similarly, for Noida the demand estimates currentlystand at
0.14mmscmd, which could rise to 0.35mmscmd in the long run.
Thus,expansion in these geographies is likely to drive the
company's growth going ahead.
Exhibit 11: Demand
potentialPPPPParticularsarticularsarticularsarticularsarticulars
Noida Noida Noida Noida Noida Ghaziabad Ghaziabad Ghaziabad
Ghaziabad Ghaziabad
Population (2001 Census, in mn) 0.30 0.96
Estimated households (mn) 0.07 0.18
VVVVVehicle Pehicle Pehicle Pehicle Pehicle
Populationopulationopulationopulationopulation
Buses 3,150 7,200
Three wheelers 480 11,200
Four Wheelers 2,750 50,500
Estimated Current demand (mmscmd)Estimated Current demand
(mmscmd)Estimated Current demand (mmscmd)Estimated Current demand
(mmscmd)Estimated Current demand (mmscmd) 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Estimated demand - 2020 (mmscmd)Estimated demand - 2020
(mmscmd)Estimated demand - 2020 (mmscmd)Estimated demand - 2020
(mmscmd)Estimated demand - 2020 (mmscmd) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94Source: PNGRB, Angel Research
With the regulatory concerns alreadyWith the regulatory concerns
alreadyWith the regulatory concerns alreadyWith the regulatory
concerns alreadyWith the regulatory concerns alreadyaddressed by
the Delhi High Court, weaddressed by the Delhi High Court,
weaddressed by the Delhi High Court, weaddressed by the Delhi High
Court, weaddressed by the Delhi High Court, weexpect growth in
Noida, greater Noidaexpect growth in Noida, greater Noidaexpect
growth in Noida, greater Noidaexpect growth in Noida, greater
Noidaexpect growth in Noida, greater Noidaand Ghaziabad to take
care of theand Ghaziabad to take care of theand Ghaziabad to take
care of theand Ghaziabad to take care of theand Ghaziabad to take
care of thescalability concernsscalability concernsscalability
concernsscalability concernsscalability concerns
-
June 22, 2010 8
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Robust top-line on price increase and stable volume growth
IGL posted CAGR of 18.9% in overall volumes over FY2008-10, with
the CNG segmentrecording 16.8% CAGR and the PNG segment registering
healthy 38.3% CAGR in thementioned period. Going ahead, we expect
IGL to register 16.9% CAGR in volumesover FY2010-12E backed by
expected strong growth in the CNG and PNG segment.CNG volumes are
projected to post CAGR of 14.4% over FY2010-12E primarily dueto
high addition in private vehicles, which we expect to increase from
around 2,13,000in FY2010 to 3,15,000 in FY2012E. The Commonwealth
Games, to be held in FY2011,is also expected to result in healthy
addition of DTC buses. In the PNG segment, weexpect robust
consumption growth to continue as the company has fulfilled
mandatoryCNG conversions. We expect the PNG segment to post a
robust CAGR of 36.2% overFY2010-12E, with the number of households
having PNG connections increasingfrom 1,80,000 in FY2010E to
2,80,000 in FY2012E.
IGL's revenues recorded CAGR of 23.6% during FY2008-10. We
expect the company'sRevenue growth to expand and post robust CAGR
of 35.5% over FY2010-12E mainlyon account of the substantial 25.6%
CNG price hike (from Rs21.9 per kg to Rs27.5per kg) undertaken in
Delhi and also in the NCR region to pass through the impact
ofsubstantial increase in gas cost coupled with strong volume
growth.
OPMs to contract, EBITDA/scm to hold
IGL has long been under the scanner of various stakeholders due
to high RoE andEBITDA Margins. It managed superior margins compared
to other CGD players likeGujarat Gas as it procured gas from GAIL
at APM prices, while the others procuredgas at market prices.
However, with the ease with which the company managed topass
through the increase in gas and operating costs, we expect the
company to
Financial Analysis
Exhibit 12: Key Operating
AssumptionsPPPPParticularsarticularsarticularsarticularsarticulars
FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009 FY2010FY2010FY2010FY2010FY2010
FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E
FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E
Sales VSales VSales VSales VSales Volume breakolume breakolume
breakolume breakolume break-up-up-up-up-up
CNG volumes (mmscm) 605 692 789 907
PNG volumes (mmscm) 54 82 132 152
Total volumes (mmscm) 660 774 922 1,059
Gas Sourcing VGas Sourcing VGas Sourcing VGas Sourcing VGas
Sourcing Volume breakolume breakolume breakolume breakolume
break-up-up-up-up-up
APM Gas (mmscm) 713 748 767 803
KG Gas (mmscm) - 85 225 336
Natural Gas consumed (mmscm) 713 833 992 1,139
Other AssumptionsOther AssumptionsOther AssumptionsOther
AssumptionsOther Assumptions
APM Gas Price (Rs/scm) 5.3 5.4 8.0 8.5
KG Gas Price (Rs/scm) - 11.9 12.1 11.8
Blended cost of Gas sold (Rs/scm) 6.2 6.4 9.6 10.2
Other Operating Expenditure (Rs/scm) 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.9
EBITDA (Rs/scm) 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.7
Capex (Rs cr) 172 386 500 550Source: Company, Angel Research
WWWWWe expect IGL to register 16.9% CAe expect IGL to register
16.9% CAe expect IGL to register 16.9% CAe expect IGL to register
16.9% CAe expect IGL to register 16.9% CAGRGRGRGRGRin volumes over
FY2010-12E backed byin volumes over FY2010-12E backed byin volumes
over FY2010-12E backed byin volumes over FY2010-12E backed byin
volumes over FY2010-12E backed byexpected strong growth in the CNG
andexpected strong growth in the CNG andexpected strong growth in
the CNG andexpected strong growth in the CNG andexpected strong
growth in the CNG andPNG segmentPNG segmentPNG segmentPNG
segmentPNG segment
WWWWWe expect the company's Revenuee expect the company's
Revenuee expect the company's Revenuee expect the company's
Revenuee expect the company's Revenuegrowth to expand and post
robust CAgrowth to expand and post robust CAgrowth to expand and
post robust CAgrowth to expand and post robust CAgrowth to expand
and post robust CAGRGRGRGRGRof 35.5% over FY2010-12Eof 35.5% over
FY2010-12Eof 35.5% over FY2010-12Eof 35.5% over FY2010-12Eof 35.5%
over FY2010-12E
-
June 22, 2010 9
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
maintain its EBITDA margin per unit of sales volume. But, as the
same margin per unitwill be earned on higher sales, we estimate
EBIDA margins to contract. Thus, weexpect OPMs to hover around 30%
levels in FY2011E and FY2012E from around 35%levels registered in
FY2009 and FY2010.
Profit to rise despite higher depreciation
We estimate depreciation to increase by a whopping 48.6% yoy in
FY2011E and34.2% yoy in FY2012E due to estimated capex of around
Rs500cr and Rs550cr inFY2011E and FY2012E, respectively. The
company plans to incur capex towards addingaround 53 CNG outlets
and expanding its PNG roll out. During FY2008-10, IGLposted 11.1%
CAGR in Bottom-line despite cost pressures. Over FY2010-12E,
weexpect Profit to register 17.5% CAGR on robust volume growth.
RoE to stabilise as margin pressures ease
Historically, IGL's RoE has been hovering around 30.0% levels.
In FY2009 and FY2010,the company's RoE stood at 27.4% and 28.6%,
respectively. Going ahead, because ofthe company's ability to
maintain its margins, we expect RoE to be maintained aroundsimilar
levels of 27% in FY2011E and 27.6% in FY2012E.
WWWWWe expect Pe expect Pe expect Pe expect Pe expect Profit to
register 17.5% CArofit to register 17.5% CArofit to register 17.5%
CArofit to register 17.5% CArofit to register 17.5% CAGRGRGRGRGRon
robust volume growthon robust volume growthon robust volume
growthon robust volume growthon robust volume growth
-
June 22, 2010 10
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Concerns
Regulatory risks:Regulatory risks:Regulatory risks:Regulatory
risks:Regulatory risks: As per the PNGRB regulations, the regulator
can only controlnetwork tariffs, while the end product pricing is
not controlled. However, if there is anychange in the regulation,
which caps the overall returns to be made by the CGDentity, there
could be a change in our view on the stock. The concerns over
fixation ofthe overall returns have arisen especially after zero
tariff bidding by various entitiessuch as IOC-Adani Energy for
Ghaziabad, making a mockery of the entire biddingexercise. 'Zero'
tariff will be recouped by the bidding companies through the
CNGcharges levied on users - household or industries - as they deem
fit. So, it is believedthat if the retail prices are not regulated
and regulations create monopolies, theconsumer interest is bound to
get compromised.
Change in TChange in TChange in TChange in TChange in Tax
structure of CNGax structure of CNGax structure of CNGax structure
of CNGax structure of CNG::::: A large part of the arbitrage
between the CNGand petrol prices is primarily fueled due to the
differential tax structure. In case of MS(petrol) and gas oil
(diesel), taxes constitute 48.8% and 34.6% of the current
sellingprice, respectively. While the CNG attracts lower taxation
at 14.4%. If the Delhigovernment were to change the tax rate on
CNG, it could impact margins as well asthe new vehicle
conversions.
Source: PPAC, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: Break-up of Petrol, Diesel, CNG prices in Delhi
51.2534.64
14.42
48.7565.36
85.58
0
20
40
60
80
100
Petrol Diesel CNG
Taxes Prices without Taxes
(%)
-
June 22, 2010 11
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Outlook and Valuation
Following the recent hike in the CNG prices, the key headwinds
for IGL by way ofexpected margin contraction and reduction in
earnings and return ratios are likely todissipate to a large
extent. Relative ease in pass through of the APM gas price hike
isindicative of the absence of regulatory risks in the near term.
This coupled with strongCNG conversions and growth in newer
geographies is likely to result in strong earningsgrowth and result
in re-rating of the stock.
We believe that even post end of the marketing exclusivity in
CY2011E, IGL will beable to maintain its margins, as the PNGRB
regulations limits network and compressiontariffs with marketing
margins being left out presuming it will be self-regulated due
tocompetitive forces. As for the impact of the end of the marketing
exclusivity on volumesis concerned, we believe that competition is
likely to have minuscule impact on IGL'svolumes. On the CNG volumes
front, IGL is likely to maintain large market share inthe visible
future post end of marketing exclusivity due to its strong
parentage (BPCL,GAIL and Government of Delhi), tie-ups with oil
marketing companies (OMCs) fordispensing CNG, significant expansion
of CNG stations till end of the exclusivity period.
Exhibit 14: Change in
estimatesPPPPParticularsarticularsarticularsarticularsarticulars
Old estimates Old estimates Old estimates Old estimates Old
estimates New estimates New estimates New estimates New estimates
New estimates % chg% chg% chg% chg% chg
Rs(cr)Rs(cr)Rs(cr)Rs(cr)Rs(cr) FY11EFY11EFY11EFY11EFY11E
FY12EFY12EFY12EFY12EFY12E FY11EFY11EFY11EFY11EFY11E
FY12EFY12EFY12EFY12EFY12E FY11EFY11EFY11EFY11EFY11E
FY12EFY12EFY12EFY12EFY12E
Revenues 1,403 1,636 1,612 1,985 14.9 21.3
EBITDA 367 422 472 606 28.5 43.6
EBITDA Margins(%) 26.2 25.8 29.3 30.5
EPS 13.3 14.5 17.5 21.3 31.2 46.7Source: Company, Angel
Research
At current levels of Rs255, the stock is discounting 14.6x and
12.0x FY2011E andFY2012E Earnings. IGL has historically traded in
the range of 9-13x its one-yearforward earnings. We upgrade our
DCF-based target price of the IGL to Rs301 (Rs210)on the back of
upward revision in earnings estimates and lower WACC estimates
(toreflect lower pricing risk). Hence, we upgrade the stock to Buy
from Reduce.Hence, we upgrade the stock to Buy from Reduce.Hence,
we upgrade the stock to Buy from Reduce.Hence, we upgrade the stock
to Buy from Reduce.Hence, we upgrade the stock to Buy from
Reduce.
CompanyCompanyCompanyCompanyCompany RoCE (%)RoCE (%)RoCE (%)RoCE
(%)RoCE (%) P/E (x)P/E (x)P/E (x)P/E (x)P/E (x) P/B (x)P/B (x)P/B
(x)P/B (x)P/B (x) EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDA (x)A
(x)A (x)A (x)A (x)
FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10 FY11FY11FY11FY11FY11 FY12FY12FY12FY12FY12
FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10 FY11FY11FY11FY11FY11 FY12FY12FY12FY12FY12
FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10 FY11FY11FY11FY11FY11 FY12FY12FY12FY12FY12
FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10 FY11FY11FY11FY11FY11 FY12FY12FY12FY12FY12
IGL 38.1 33.8 31.6 16.6 14.6 12.0 4.3 3.6 3.0 8.9 7.7 6.3
Gujarat Gas 24.4 27.4 28.0 21.7 17.4 14.4 4.9 4.1 3.4 12.0 9.5
7.6
Exhibit 15: Comparative
ValuationCompanyCompanyCompanyCompanyCompany M. CapM. CapM. CapM.
CapM. Cap TTTTTargetargetargetargetarget
RatingRatingRatingRatingRating EBITDEBITDEBITDEBITDEBITDA Margin
(%)A Margin (%)A Margin (%)A Margin (%)A Margin (%) EPS (Rs)EPS
(Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs) RoE (%)RoE (%)RoE (%)RoE (%)RoE
(%)
(Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) PPPPPrice (Rs)rice
(Rs)rice (Rs)rice (Rs)rice (Rs) FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10
FY11FY11FY11FY11FY11 FY12FY12FY12FY12FY12 FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10
FY11FY11FY11FY11FY11 FY12FY12FY12FY12FY12 FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10
FY11FY11FY11FY11FY11 FY12FY12FY12FY12FY12
IGL 3,575 301 Buy 35.7 29.3 30.5 15.4 17.5 21.3 28.6 27.0
27.6
Gujarat Gas 3,786 306 Neutral 19.7 21.2 20.6 13.6 17.0 20.4 23.6
25.8 25.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Gujarat Gas No's are for
CY09, CY10, CY11
-
June 22, 2010 12
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Calculation of FCalculation of FCalculation of FCalculation of
FCalculation of Fair Vair Vair Vair Vair Valuealuealuealuealue
PPPPParticularsarticularsarticularsarticularsarticulars
FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E
FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E
Discount rate (%) 11.5 11.5
PV of cashflows (FY09-20E) 1,815 2,138
TTTTTerminal value calculationserminal value calculationserminal
value calculationserminal value calculationserminal value
calculations
Growth to perpetuity(%) 2.0 2.0
FCF in 2020 542 542
Exit FCF multiple 10.7 10.7
Exit EV/EBDITA multiple 5.3 5.3
Add: Terminal value (PV) 5,821 5,821
PV of terminal value 2,068 2,320
% of company value 53.3 52.0
EV 3,882 4,458
Less: Net Debt (FY09E) 77 248
Equity valueEquity valueEquity valueEquity valueEquity value
3,806 3,806 3,806 3,806 3,806 4,210 4,210 4,210 4,210 4,210
Shares O/s 14 14
Equity value per share 272 301Source: Company, Angel
Research
Target Price sensitivity with WACC and Terminal Growth Rate
11.3%11.3%11.3%11.3%11.3% 11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%
11.8%11.8%11.8%11.8%11.8% 12.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%
12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%
1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0% 287 283 280 277 274
1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5% 296 292 288 284 281
2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% 305 301301301301301 296 292 289
2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% 316 311 306 302 297
3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0% 328 322 317 312 307
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 16: DCFExhibit 16: DCFExhibit 16: DCFExhibit 16:
DCFExhibit 16: DCF-based V-based V-based V-based V-based
Valuationaluationaluationaluationaluation
P P P P Particulars ( Rs Cr)articulars ( Rs Cr)articulars ( Rs
Cr)articulars ( Rs Cr)articulars ( Rs Cr) FY09 FY09 FY09 FY09 FY09
FY10E FY10E FY10E FY10E FY10E FY11E FY11E FY11E FY11E FY11E FY12E
FY12E FY12E FY12E FY12E FY13E FY13E FY13E FY13E FY13E FY14E FY14E
FY14E FY14E FY14E FY15E FY15E FY15E FY15E FY15E FY16E FY16E FY16E
FY16E FY16E FY17E FY17E FY17E FY17E FY17E FY18E FY18E FY18E FY18E
FY18E FY19E FY19E FY19E FY19E FY19E FY20E FY20E FY20E FY20E
FY20E
Net SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet Sales 853 853 853 853
853 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,606 1,606 1,606 1,606 1,606
1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 2,216 2,216 2,216 2,216 2,216 2,452
2,452 2,452 2,452 2,452 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,959 2,959
2,959 2,959 2,959 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,483 3,483 3,483
3,483 3,483 3,753 3,753 3,753 3,753 3,753 4,028 4,028 4,028 4,028
4,028
EBITDA 300 387 472 606 666 726 786 846 907 967 1,028 1,088
EBITEBITEBITEBITEBIT 233 233 233 233 233 309 309 309 309 309 357
357 357 357 357 451 451 451 451 451 464 464 464 464 464 502 502 502
502 502 566 566 566 566 566 619 619 619 619 619 672 672 672 672 672
724 724 724 724 724 776 776 776 776 776 822 822 822 822 822
Tax rate (T) (%) 33.1 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7
33.7 33.7 33.7
NOPAT {EBIT*(1-T)} 156 205 236 299 308 333 375 410 445 480 514
545
(+) Depreciation 67 77 115 155 201 224 220 227 235 243 252
266
(+) Change in NWC 18 (19) (44) (6) (8) (4) (6) (5) (5) (4) (3)
(3)
Operating Cash FlowsOperating Cash FlowsOperating Cash
FlowsOperating Cash FlowsOperating Cash Flows 241 241 241 241 241
263 263 263 263 263 308 308 308 308 308 448 448 448 448 448 501 501
501 501 501 552 552 552 552 552 590 590 590 590 590 633 633 633 633
633 676 676 676 676 676 719 719 719 719 719 763 763 763 763 763 808
808 808 808 808
(-) Capex 172 386 500 550 350 300 100 105 110 116 122 266
FCFFFCFFFCFFFCFFFCFF 69 69 69 69 69 (123) (123) (123) (123)
(123) (192) (192) (192) (192) (192) (102) (102) (102) (102) (102)
151 151 151 151 151 252 252 252 252 252 490 490 490 490 490 528 528
528 528 528 566 566 566 566 566 603 603 603 603 603 641 641 641 641
641 542 542 542 542 542
PV of FPV of FPV of FPV of FPV of Free Cash Flowsree Cash
Flowsree Cash Flowsree Cash Flowsree Cash Flows (172) (172) (172)
(172) (172) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) 107 107 107 107 107 159 159
159 159 159 276 276 276 276 276 265 265 265 265 265 253 253 253 253
253 240 240 240 240 240 228 228 228 228 228 172 172 172 172
172Source: Company, Angel Research
Calculation of Cost of CapitalCalculation of Cost of
CapitalCalculation of Cost of CapitalCalculation of Cost of
CapitalCalculation of Cost of Capital
Rf 7.5%
Risk premium 6.5%
Market rate of return (req return) 14.0%
Beta 0.48
Ke 10.6%
Stock risk premium 0.9%
WWWWWAAAAACCCCCCCCCC 11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%Source: Company,
Angel Research
-
June 22, 2010 13
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 20: One-Year Forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-
04
Dec-
04
Aug
-05
Apr-
06
Dec-
06
Aug
-07
Apr-
08
Dec-
08
Aug
-09
Apr-
10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
3.5x 4.5x 5.5x 6.5x
EV
(Rs
cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 19: One-Year Forward P/BV
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 4.0x 4.0x
Share
Pri
ce(R
s)
Apr-
04
Dec-
04
Aug
-05
Apr-
06
Dec-
06
Aug
-07
Apr-
08
Dec-
08
Aug
-09
Apr-
10
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 18: Rolling and Median P/E
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 17: One-Year Forward P/E
7.0x 9.0x 11.0x 13.0x 15.0x
30
80
130
180
230
280
Apr-
04
Dec-
04
Aug
-05
Apr-
06
Dec-
06
Aug
-07
Apr-
08
Dec-
08
Aug
-09
Apr-
10
Share
Pric
e(R
s)
5.0
9.0
13.0
17.0
21.0
25.0
Apr-
04
Dec-
04
Aug
-05
Apr-
06
Dec-
06
Aug
-07
Apr-
08
Dec-
08
Aug
-09
Apr-
10
PE
multip
le
-
June 22, 2010 14
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 22: Relative Performance to Peers
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
Petronet LNG GAIL GGAS IGL
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec
-05
Apr-
06
Aug-0
6
Dec
-06
Apr-
07
Apr-
08
Aug-0
7
Aug-0
8
Dec
-07
Dec
-08
Apr-
09
Aug-0
9
Dec
-09
Dec
-10
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 21: Relative Performance to Sensex - Oil & Gas
Induex
IGL SENSEX BSEOIL
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Apr-
05
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Apr-
06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Apr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Apr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Apr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Apr-
10
SENSEX
IGL
BSE OIL & GAS
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 24: Underperformance relative to Oil & Gas Index
BSEOIL IGL
(250)
(220)
(190)
(160)
(130)
(100)
(70)
(40)
(10)
20
50
Apr-
05
Oct
-05
Apr-
06
Oct
-06
Apr-
07
Oct
-07
Apr-
08
Oct
-08
Apr-
09
Oct
-09
Apr-
10
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 23: Underperformance Relative to Sensex
(150)
(125)
(100)
(75)
(50)
(25)
-
25
SENSEX IGL
Apr-
05
Oct
-05
Apr-
06
Oct
-06
Apr-
07
Oct
-07
Apr-
08
Oct
-08
Apr-
09
Oct
-09
Apr-
10
-
June 22, 2010 15
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Company Background
IGL is in the retail gas distribution business supplying CNG to
the Transport sector andpiped natural gas (PNG) to domestic and
commercial sectors in the NCT region ofDelhi and NCR region. IGL
was incorporated in December 1998 as a joint venture(JV) between
two oil & gas majors - GAIL and BPCL (each holding 22.5% stake)
andgovernment of NCT of Delhi (5% stake) to implement the city gas
distribution (CGD)project in NCT. IGL currently has 193 CNG fuel
stations operating in Delhi and NCR.It plans to add around 53 CNG
stations in FY2011 and FY2012. It has a CNGcompression capacity of
3.64mn kg/day and currently fuels more than 3,40,000vehicles daily.
In the PNG segment, IGL has provided PNG connections to over
1,82,000domestic and 357 commercial customers. Going forward, IGL
plans to add around50,000 PNG customers every year. IGL is now
expanding its network into the NCRtowns of Noida, Greater Noida and
Ghaziabad.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 25: IGL over the years
YYYYYearearearearear EventEventEventEventEvent
1997 GAIL started the Delhi City Gas Distribution Project - a
CNG pilot projectto establish the viability of the venture and to
resolve related technicaland safety issues.
1998 IGL was incorporated on December 23, 1998 under companies
Act,1956.
1999 IGL started its operations in February, 1999 by taking over
and executingDelhi City Gas Distribution Project in Delhi from
GAIL(India) Ltd.
2000 Supreme court directive to convert entire city bus fleet
(DTC and private)to CNG by March 31, 2001; Replacement of all
pre-1990 autos andtaxis with new vehicles on clean fuels, etc.
2000 Entered into long-term supply contract with GAIL for supply
of0.48 mmscmd APM Natural Gas
2001 MoPNG increased APM gas allocation to 0.98 mmscmd
2002 MoPNG increased APM gas allocation to 2.0 mmscmd to meet
IGL'srequirement for NCT of Delhi
2003 Successful completion of IPO at Rs48 per share by Selling
shareholders
2004 Marked a foray into NCR by setting up 2 CNG stations in
Noida inDecember 2004.
2004-05 Secured 0.70mscmd APM gas from MoPNG for expanding its
gasdistribution network in Noida including Greater Noida, Gurgaon
andFaridabad.
2005-06 IGL formalized its agreement with GAIL for supply of 2
mmscmd; enteredinto agreement with BPCL for supply of RLNG on
long-term basis.
2008-09 IGL requested for additional 1.0mmscmd APM gas to meet
increasingdemand. Planned addition of 50 more CNG stations over
next two yearsfrom 163 stations
2009-10 Received KG-D6 gas from RIL at EGoM approved price ofUS
$4.2/mmbtu
2010-11 The company's gas cost more than doubled with the
governmentincreasing APM gas price to US $4.2/mmbtu; however IGL
has passedon the impact of higher gas cost by increasing CNG price
in Delhi bywhopping 25.6% to Rs27.5/kg (from Rs21.9/kg
earlier).
-
June 22, 2010 16
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Business Model
IGL as a CGD player is primarily engaged in the business of
distribution of CNG (87%of FY2010 Net Sales). IGL's CNG users can
be classified into mandatory anddiscretionary users. The mandatory
users (compulsory users as mandated by law)include DTC and private
buses, RTVs and Autos. Discretionary users of CNG includeprivate
cars, which use CNG due to the low running cost. While initial
phase ofconversion was driven by mandatory users, current
conversions are driven bydiscretionary users.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 26: Sales break-up
IGL is currently pricing its products at a discount to
alternative fuels in both the CNGand PNG segments. In the CNG
segment, IGL has priced its gas at a discount topetrol and diesel
prices. CNG is priced at 57.3% discount to petrol and 40.6%
todiesel. Similarly, in the domestic PNG segment the fuel price is
indexed to theadministered retail selling price of domestic LPG
(14.2 kg) cylinder in the NCT, asapplicable from time to time,
taking into account the respective heating values ofnatural gas and
LPG. In the small commercial users segment, PNG is indexed
tocommercial LPG (19 kg) cylinder in the NCT of Delhi, as
applicable from time to time,taking into account the respective
heating values of natural gas and LPG. Largecommercial users (big
hotels, etc) are the PNG users replacing LDO and commercialLPG.
Thus, price in the segment is indexed to weighted average price of
LDO andcommercial LPG in the NCT taking into account the respective
heating values of naturalgas, LPG and LDO.
Gas sourcing is an important aspect of the CGD business. GAIL is
the sole supplier ofAPM natural gas to IGL. The company has gas
purchase agreement for 2.2mmscmdwith GAIL. Gas is received at
various points of the Hazira-Bijaipur-Jagdishpur (HBJ)pipeline
around Delhi. As the gas cost is denominated in Rupee terms, IGL is
insulatedfrom exchange rate risks. The gas, which was available at
subsidised APM prices ofaround US $1.8/mmbtu, is now aligned with
RIL's KG-D6 price of US $4.2/mmbtu. Inthe previous fiscal, IGL
entered into a gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA) withRIL for
supply of 0.31mmscmd of gas from the KG-D6 fields scalable to
0.5mmscmd.IGL is using RIL's gas for expanding its presence in the
Delhi. IGL has also entered intoa gas transportation agreement
(GTA) with Reliance Gas Transportation Infrastructure.
91.5 90.2 89.2 88.3 87.185.2 86.0
8.5 9.8 10.8 11.7 12.914.8 14.0
75
80
85
90
95
100
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
CNG Sales (% of Total) PNG Sales (% of Total)
(%)
Initial phase of conversion was drivenInitial phase of
conversion was drivenInitial phase of conversion was drivenInitial
phase of conversion was drivenInitial phase of conversion was
drivenby mandatory users, current conversionsby mandatory users,
current conversionsby mandatory users, current conversionsby
mandatory users, current conversionsby mandatory users, current
conversionsdriven by discretionary usersdriven by discretionary
usersdriven by discretionary usersdriven by discretionary
usersdriven by discretionary users
CNG and PNG selling price is currentlyCNG and PNG selling price
is currentlyCNG and PNG selling price is currentlyCNG and PNG
selling price is currentlyCNG and PNG selling price is
currentlydetermined visdetermined visdetermined visdetermined
visdetermined vis-à-vis relative prices of-à-vis relative prices
of-à-vis relative prices of-à-vis relative prices of-à-vis relative
prices ofalternative fuelsalternative fuelsalternative
fuelsalternative fuelsalternative fuels
APM gas, which was available atAPM gas, which was available
atAPM gas, which was available atAPM gas, which was available atAPM
gas, which was available atsubsidised APM prices of around
USsubsidised APM prices of around USsubsidised APM prices of around
USsubsidised APM prices of around USsubsidised APM prices of around
US$1.8/mmbtu, is now aligned with RIL's$1.8/mmbtu, is now aligned
with RIL's$1.8/mmbtu, is now aligned with RIL's$1.8/mmbtu, is now
aligned with RIL's$1.8/mmbtu, is now aligned with
RIL'sKGKGKGKGKG-D6 price of US $4.2/mmbtu-D6 price of US
$4.2/mmbtu-D6 price of US $4.2/mmbtu-D6 price of US $4.2/mmbtu-D6
price of US $4.2/mmbtu
-
June 22, 2010 17
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Profit & Loss Statement Rs crore
Y/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E March
FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007 FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008
FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009 FY2010FY2010FY2010FY2010FY2010
FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E
FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E
Gross sales 706 810 962 1,213 1,804 2,225
Less: Excise duty 92 104 109 135 198 246
Net Sales 614 706 853 1,078 1,606 1,979
Other operating income - - - 6 6 6
TTTTTotal operating incomeotal operating incomeotal operating
incomeotal operating incomeotal operating income 614 614 614 614
614 706 706 706 706 706 853 853 853 853 853 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,084
1,084 1,612 1,612 1,612 1,612 1,612 1,985 1,985 1,985 1,985
1,985
% chg 15.0 20.8 27.1 48.7 23.1
Total Expenditure 359 406 553 697 1,140 1,379
Purchase of gas 268 303 411 495 888 1,076
Staff expenditure 14 15 24 31 38 46
Other operating expenditure 77 88 118 172 213 256
EBITDEBITDEBITDEBITDEBITDAAAAA 255 255 255 255 255 300 300 300
300 300 300 300 300 300 300 387 387 387 387 387 472 472 472 472 472
606 606 606 606 606
% chg 17.6 0.0 28.8 22.0 28.5
(% of Net Sales) 41.6 42.5 35.2 35.7 29.3 30.5
Depreciation and amortisation 60 63 67 77 115 155
EBITEBITEBITEBITEBIT 195 195 195 195 195 237 237 237 237 237 233
233 233 233 233 309 309 309 309 309 357 357 357 357 357 451 451 451
451 451
% chg 21.5 (2.0) 32.8 15.4 26.6
(% of Net Sales) 31.8 33.6 27.3 28.7 22.2 22.8
Interest & other Charges - - - - 12 28
Other Income 10 23 26 15 24 26
(% of PBT) 5.0 9.0 10.1 4.7 6.5 5.7
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBTRecurring PBTRecurring PBTRecurring PBTRecurring
PBT 206 206 206 206 206 261 261 261 261 261 259 259 259 259 259 324
324 324 324 324 369 369 369 369 369 449 449 449 449 449
% chg 26.9 (0.8) 25.3 13.6 21.9
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported)PBT (reported)PBT (reported)PBT (reported)PBT
(reported) 206 206 206 206 206 261 261 261 261 261 259 259 259 259
259 324 324 324 324 324 369 369 369 369 369 449 449 449 449 449
Tax 68 86 86 109 124 151
(% of PBT) 32.9 33.1 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7
PPPPPAAAAAT (reported)T (reported)T (reported)T (reported)T
(reported) 138 138 138 138 138 174 174 174 174 174 172 172 172 172
172 215 215 215 215 215 244 244 244 244 244 298 298 298 298 298
Add: Share of earnings of asso.Add: Share of earnings of
asso.Add: Share of earnings of asso.Add: Share of earnings of
asso.Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
Prior period items - - - - - -
PPPPPAAAAAT after MI (reported)T after MI (reported)T after MI
(reported)T after MI (reported)T after MI (reported) 138 138 138
138 138 174 174 174 174 174 172 172 172 172 172 215 215 215 215 215
244 244 244 244 244 298 298 298 298 298
ADJADJADJADJADJ. P. P. P. P. PAAAAATTTTT 138 138 138 138 138 174
174 174 174 174 172 172 172 172 172 215 215 215 215 215 244 244 244
244 244 298 298 298 298 298
% chg 26.5 (1.1) 24.9 13.4 21.9
(% of Net Sales) 22.5 24.7 20.2 20.0 15.2 15.0
Basic EPS (Rs)Basic EPS (Rs)Basic EPS (Rs)Basic EPS (Rs)Basic
EPS (Rs) 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.3
12.3 12.3 12.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5
21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3
FFFFFully Diluted EPS (Rs)ully Diluted EPS (Rs)ully Diluted EPS
(Rs)ully Diluted EPS (Rs)ully Diluted EPS (Rs) 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9
12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 15.4 15.4 15.4
15.4 15.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3
% chg 26.5 (1.1) 24.9 13.4 21.9
-
June 22, 2010 18
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Balance Sheet Rs crore
Y/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E March
FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007 FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008
FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009 FY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010E
FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E
FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDSSOURCES OF FUNDSSOURCES OF FUNDSSOURCES OF
FUNDSSOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 140 140 140 140 140 140
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 328 436 543 685 844 1,037
Shareholders FShareholders FShareholders FShareholders
FShareholders Fundsundsundsundsunds 468 468 468 468 468 576 576 576
576 576 683 683 683 683 683 825 825 825 825 825 984 984 984 984 984
1,177 1,177 1,177 1,177 1,177
Minority Interest - - - - - -
Total Loans - - - - 150 350
Net Deferred Tax Liability 30 24 21 17 13 13
Deposits from customers 5 7 27 48 73 98
TTTTTotal Liabilitiesotal Liabilitiesotal Liabilitiesotal
Liabilitiesotal Liabilities 503 503 503 503 503 607 607 607 607 607
731 731 731 731 731 890 890 890 890 890 1,219 1,219 1,219 1,219
1,219 1,637 1,637 1,637 1,637 1,637
APPLICAAPPLICAAPPLICAAPPLICAAPPLICATION OF FUNDSTION OF
FUNDSTION OF FUNDSTION OF FUNDSTION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 613 668 817 1,105 1,535 2,060
Less: Acc. Depreciation 250 310 378 455 570 725
Net Block 363 358 439 650 965 1,335
Capital Work-in-Progress 31 59 82 180 250 275
Goodwill - - - - - -
InvestmentsInvestmentsInvestmentsInvestmentsInvestments 128 128
128 128 128 109 109 109 109 109 104 104 104 104 104 35 35 35 35 35
35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Current Assets 106 228 259 217 259 328
Cash 40 140 146 85 73 102
Loans & Advances 25 41 55 59 88 109
Other 40 47 58 73 97 117
Current liabilities 125 146 154 192 289 335
Net Current AssetsNet Current AssetsNet Current AssetsNet
Current AssetsNet Current Assets (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) 82 82 82
82 82 106 106 106 106 106 25 25 25 25 25 (31) (31) (31) (31) (31)
(8) (8) (8) (8) (8)
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
TTTTTotal Assetsotal Assetsotal Assetsotal Assetsotal Assets 503
503 503 503 503 607 607 607 607 607 731 731 731 731 731 890 890 890
890 890 1,219 1,219 1,219 1,219 1,219 1,637 1,637 1,637 1,637
1,637
-
June 22, 2010 19
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Cash Flow Statement Rs crore
Y/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E March
FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007 FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008
FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009 FY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010E
FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E
FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E
Profit before tax 206 261 259 324 369 449
Depreciation 60 63 67 77 115 155
Deposits accepted during the year 1 1 20 21 25 25
Change in Working Capital 29 (2) (18) 19 44 6
Less: Other income (10) (23) (26) (15) (24) (26)
Direct taxes paid (73) (93) (89) (113) (129) (151)
Cash Flow from OperationsCash Flow from OperationsCash Flow from
OperationsCash Flow from OperationsCash Flow from Operations 213
213 213 213 213 207 207 207 207 207 212 212 212 212 212 314 314 314
314 314 400 400 400 400 400 458 458 458 458 458
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (58) (83) (172) (386) (500)
(550)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (85) 19 5 69 - -
Other income 10 23 26 15 24 26
Cash Flow from InvestingCash Flow from InvestingCash Flow from
InvestingCash Flow from InvestingCash Flow from Investing (133)
(133) (133) (133) (133) (41) (41) (41) (41) (41) (141) (141) (141)
(141) (141) (302) (302) (302) (302) (302) (476) (476) (476) (476)
(476) (524) (524) (524) (524) (524)
Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans - - - - 150 200
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (40) (49) (66) (74) (86) (105)
Others (10) (18) 0 - - -
Cash Flow from FCash Flow from FCash Flow from FCash Flow from
FCash Flow from Financinginancinginancinginancinginancing (50) (50)
(50) (50) (50) (67) (67) (67) (67) (67) (65) (65) (65) (65) (65)
(74) (74) (74) (74) (74) 64 64 64 64 64 95 95 95 95 95
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 29 99 6 (61) (12) 29
Opening Cash balancesOpening Cash balancesOpening Cash
balancesOpening Cash balancesOpening Cash balances 11 11 11 11 11
40 40 40 40 40 140 140 140 140 140 146 146 146 146 146 85 85 85 85
85 73 73 73 73 73
Closing Cash balancesClosing Cash balancesClosing Cash
balancesClosing Cash balancesClosing Cash balances 40 40 40 40 40
140 140 140 140 140 146 146 146 146 146 85 85 85 85 85 73 73 73 73
73 102 102 102 102 102
-
June 22, 2010 20
Indraprastha Gas | Company Update
Key Ratios
Y/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E MarchY/E March
FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007FY2007 FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008FY2008
FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009 FY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010E
FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E
FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E
VVVVValuation Ratio (x)aluation Ratio (x)aluation Ratio
(x)aluation Ratio (x)aluation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 25.9 20.5 20.7 16.6 14.6 12.0
P/CEPS 18.1 15.1 14.9 12.2 9.9 7.9
P/BV 7.6 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.6 3.0
Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5
EV/Sales 5.5 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.2 1.9
EV/EBITDA 13.4 11.1 11.1 8.9 7.7 6.3
EV/Total Assets 6.8 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.0 2.3
PPPPPer Share Data (Rs)er Share Data (Rs)er Share Data (Rs)er
Share Data (Rs)er Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 9.9 12.5 12.3 15.4 17.5 21.3
EPS (fully diluted) 9.9 12.5 12.3 15.4 17.5 21.3
Cash EPS 14.1 16.9 17.1 20.9 25.7 32.3
DPS 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.2 6.4
Book Value 33.4 41.2 48.8 58.9 70.3 84.1
Dupont Analysis (%)Dupont Analysis (%)Dupont Analysis (%)Dupont
Analysis (%)Dupont Analysis (%)
EBIT margin 31.8 33.6 27.3 28.7 22.2 22.8
Tax retention ratio 67.2 67.0 66.9 66.3 66.3 66.3
Asset turnover (x) 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5
ROIC (Post-tax) 37.5 45.9 37.1 32.9 25.2 23.0
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - -
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating ROE 37.5 45.9 37.1 32.9 25.2 23.0
Returns (%)Returns (%)Returns (%)Returns (%)Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 42.4 42.8 34.8 38.1 33.8 31.6
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 61.2 78.7 66.6 62.5 49.1 43.3
ROE 32.6 33.4 27.4 28.6 27.0 27.6
TTTTTurnover ratios (x)urnover ratios (x)urnover ratios
(x)urnover ratios (x)urnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1
Inventory / Sales (days) 11.7 11.3 10.0 9.1 8.5 9.2
Receivables (days) 11.2 10.7 11.7 12.2 10.0 9.7
Payables (days) 66.2 67.9 53.1 53.8 54.6 64.1
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (26.8) (30.4) (21.1) (16.9) (18.5)
(19.6)
Solvency ratios (x)Solvency ratios (x)Solvency ratios
(x)Solvency ratios (x)Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.1) 0.0 0.2
Net debt to EBITDA (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.3) 0.1 0.4
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) - - - - - 16.1
-
Indraprastha Gas
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce
(-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Ratings (Returns) :
Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the
recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any
investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as
investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document
should makesuch investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at
an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the
companiesreferred to in this document (including the merits and
risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine
the merits andrisks of such an investment.
Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its
proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to
time, make investmentdecisions that are inconsistent with or
contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views
contained in this document arethose of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on
studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions
and tradingvolume, as opposed to focusing on a company's
fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a
company's fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis
of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sourcesbelieved to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel
Securities Limited has not independently verified all the
information containedwithin this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or
implied, to the accuracy, contentsor data contained within this
document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a
reasonable basis the informationdiscussed in this material, there
may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us
from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your
information, and its contents, information or data may not be
reproduced, redistributedor passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide
or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking
or otheradvisory services in a merger or specific transaction to
the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this
report or in the past.
Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees
or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise
from or inconnection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure'
report on the Angel website (Research Section).
Disclosure of Interest StatementDisclosure of Interest
StatementDisclosure of Interest StatementDisclosure of Interest
StatementDisclosure of Interest Statement IGLIGLIGLIGLIGL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the
stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for
Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
-
Indraprastha Gas
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam
Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040
3800
Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn
No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546
Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE
028/NSE:09946Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 /
NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities
Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM /
CORP / 0302
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical
[email protected]
Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking
[email protected]
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile [email protected]
Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate
[email protected]
Anand Shah FMCG , Media [email protected]
Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas [email protected]
Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering
[email protected]
Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical [email protected]
Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power [email protected]
Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping
[email protected]
Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap
[email protected]
Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap
[email protected]
Paresh Jain Metals & Mining [email protected]
Amit Rane Banking [email protected]
Jai Sharda Mid-cap [email protected]
Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap [email protected]
Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas)
[email protected]
V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power)
[email protected]
Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)
[email protected]
Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)
[email protected]
Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media)
[email protected]
Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom)
[email protected]
Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining)
[email protected]
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives
[email protected]
Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst [email protected]
Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales
[email protected]
Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales
[email protected]
Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager [email protected]
Pranav Modi Sr. Manager [email protected]
Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager [email protected]
Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager [email protected]
Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer [email protected]
Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]
Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]
Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty Research Editor
[email protected]
Bharat Patil Production [email protected]
Dilip Patel Production [email protected]