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IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 Centre for Technology Management Rob Phaal [email protected]
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IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal [email protected]. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

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Page 1: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

IfM Briefing Day

15 May 2012

Centre for Technology Management gy g

Rob [email protected]

Page 2: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

CTM research: themes, topics and peopleStrategic technology

managementIndustrial emergence

and evolution

Technology acquisition and protection

Industrial resilience and sustainability

Open innovation and intelligence networks

Technology entrepreneurship gp p

Page 3: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

CTM executive education calendar

DecValuing and selecting technology projects Customised

in companyNov Jan

Roadmapping

Technology intelligencein-company

courses

Oct FebRoadmapping

Realising the al e of earl

Technology and

MarchSept Roadmappingvalue of early stage

technologiesTechnology and

Innovation Management

Aug

J l M

April

M k b d i i

NewNew

June

July May Make or buy decisions

Visual approaches for strategy and innovation management

Roadmappingand innovation management

NewNew

Page 4: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Today’s menu

Open Innovation Tim MinshallTechnology Acquisition and Protection Simon Ford

SResilience Simon FordRisk Handling in Roadmapping Imoh IlevbarePortfolio Project Selection Rick MitchellPortfolio Project Selection Rick MitchellVisualisation Clive Kerr

Questions and Discussion

Page 5: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Open Innovation

Dr Tim Minshall

Page 6: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

What is open innovation?Research Development Commercialisation

p

C

Products in-sourced (e.g. Co-branding)

Intellectual Property (IP) in-

licensing

Core Market Focus

Company Boundaries

Intellectual

Technology Spin-outs

Property (IP) out-licensing

Ideas & Technologies

Docherty, M. (2006), Primer on ‘Open Innovation’: Principles and Practice, pdma (Product Development and Management Association) Vision (April 2006), pp.13-17.Chesbrough, H. (2003), Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting From Technology, Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Page 7: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Two types of open innovation projects

Page 8: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Open Innovation in the FMCG Value ChainA Practitioner Forum

Open Innovation in the FMCG Value Streamp

Kick-Off Meeting 14th July 2010IfM C b idIfM Cambridge

Dominic OughtonDominic OughtonPaul Christodoulou

Letizia MortaraRuth Thomson

Page 9: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

OI Practitioner Forum in the Food & FMCG Value Chain

Internal External

• Partnerships

OIBest Practice

ce

• Intermediaries• IP

g B

est P

ract

i Informing B

Thought Leadership

Practitioner Experience

Metrics• RoI on OI

• Practice Assessment

Dep

loyi

nBest P

ractice

Core ForumMembership

Machinery Manufacturer

Matching “Needs” &

Retailer ConsumerRaw Materials

ProcessedMaterials

FMCGProducer

Packaging

FMCG

Matching Needs & “Competencies”

Support NetworksSMEs

Science Base

Distribution, Logistics & Waste ManagementFMCGValueStreamInsights

Identifying Opportunities on FMCG Roadmap

Intermediariesg

Page 10: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School
Page 11: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Open innovation and engineeringp g gEnergy, fluid

dynamics and turbo

Electrical Mechanics, materials and

design

Civil, structural and

sustainable

Manufacturing and

management

Information

turbo-machinery

design sustainable management

E t t d b i f t tEnergy, transport and urban infrastructure

Uncertainty, risk and resilience

Engineering for life sciences and healthcare

Inspiring research through industrial collaboration

Page 12: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Report – front cover and sample pages

Letizia Mortara and Simon Fordhttp://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/estap.html

Page 13: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School
Page 14: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

CC Howard Chen

How can organisations become more resilient?

Page 15: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

CC Rolf Unterberg

How do Open Innovation practices effect firm resilience?practices effect firm resilience?

Page 16: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

CC Highways Agency

How can the emergence and diffusion of innovations in UK infrastructure be improved?innovations in UK infrastructure be improved?

Page 17: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

CC Phil Williams

What strategies can be used to mitigate the effects of obsolescence?mitigate the effects of obsolescence?

Page 18: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

How can system-of-systems architectures be designed to improve their resilience?be designed to improve their resilience?

C smdc.arml.mil

Page 19: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

F f th i f ti t h l i iti ili hFor further information on technology acquisition or resilience research

Simon Ford, [email protected]

Page 20: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

I ti ti th t t t f t i tInvestigating the treatment of uncertainty and risk in roadmapping

Imoh Ilevbare

Page 21: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Where are the uncertainties, where are the risks?

Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap, 2002

Page 22: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

What did we proceed to do?What did we proceed to do?

ROADMAPPINGROADMAPPING

Ri k tRisk management

… to deal with this deficiency

Page 23: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Manifestations of, and response to uncertainty and risk in roadmapping

Know‐why  Clarify Identify d

roadmapping

Risk eventsFuture market uncertainty

External environment 

and assess

Know‐what  Value propositions

Under threat or suboptimal

Uncertainty in search

Uncertainty in choiceValue propositions Address/ 

iti tAugment search

Structure choice

mitigate risk issues

Know‐how  Risks of failure of capabilities and  resources

Uncertainty over required capabilities and resources

Resources and capabilities applied by the  Clarify

Identify and assesspp y

organisationClarify and assess

Actions/ Next  Thi t d/steps Things to do

Page 24: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Risk-aware roadmapping: based on the CTM’s roadmapping workshop methodology

Roadmapping workshop Techniques to address uncertainty and risk

Assumptions analysis

SWOT analysis MCDA analysis

Real options thinkingProbability‐consequence analysis

Scenarios thinkingTRIZ

Technology readiness/ obsolescence analysis

Devil’s advocacy + SWIFT

Risk‐reward analysisRolling wave planning 

Opportunity to pilot the process• Good value at no fee

C ( @ )Contact: Imoh Ilevbare ([email protected])

Page 25: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Comparing and selectingComparing and selecting Innovation Projects

1. Customised scoring systems for i iti i l t j tprioritising early stage projects

2 V l i d i l t t2. Valuing and comparing later stage projects with choices

Looking for examples and applications

Rick Mitchell

Page 26: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

1 Multi factor Scoring methods1. Multi-factor Scoring methodsFor early stage projects, when

• Inadequate information for ROI calculations.• But you have to make a decision anyway

• Factors may have to evolve as projects mature

Key is choosing the right factors for OUR businessKey is choosing the right factors for OUR business

Example from Dupontp p

Page 27: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

2. Later, when financial information is available but projects may evolve in various waysbut projects may evolve in various ways

How to include management options in valuation, and still be able to comparevaluation, and still be able to compare projects?

Page 28: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

A typical staged innovation project

-0.5m -2m -5m50% 80% 90%

+35m

50% 20% 10%

Possible outcomes

PROB.

“Average”

035m-7.5m RETURN

Page 29: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Comparing two projects. Which is preferable?p g p j p

Likelihood

1. Simple way to value and prioritise2. Also for more complex decision trees

Value+£

+£Stop

Likelihood£

Stop Stop?

Value

Page 30: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Visualisation

CImage: Diamond Sky Images

Clive Kerr

Page 31: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Why do we create visualisations?Answer questions (or discover them)Answer questions (or discover them)Make decisionsS d t i t tSee data in contextExpand memorySupport graphical calculationFind patternsd patte sPresent an argument or tell a storyInspireInspire

Heer (2010)

Page 32: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Image: Gahan Wilson

Page 33: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Image: Ted Goff

Page 34: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Sibbet (2010)

Page 35: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Workshop templates & Communication graphicsWorkshop templates & Communication graphics

Images: Robert Phaal / NASA

Page 36: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Image: Dave Gray

Page 37: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Image: Sunni Brown

Page 38: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Concept sketch to final graphic

Images: Clive Kerr / NASA

Page 39: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Image: Andrew Abela

Page 40: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Image: Clive Kerr

Page 41: IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 - Institute for Manufacturing · IfM Briefing Day 15 May 2012 ... Rob Phaal rp108@cam.ac.uk. CTM research: themes, ... Boston: Harvard Business School

Questions?

DiscussionDiscussion