INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS ( IFAP IFAP) Philippe Jachnik President International Dairy Federation (IDF) 4th IFAP COMMODITIES CONFERENCE DAIRY PRODUCTS GROUP PRETORIA, 10.05.2003 WORLD MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK WORLD MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS
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IFAP INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS (IFAP) Philippe Jachnik President International Dairy Federation (IDF) 4th IFAP COMMODITIES CONFERENCE.
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INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS (IFAPIFAP)
Philippe Jachnik
PresidentInternational Dairy Federation (IDF)
4th IFAP COMMODITIES CONFERENCE
DAIRY PRODUCTS GROUP
PRETORIA, 10.05.2003
WORLD MARKET SITUATION AND WORLD MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCTSOUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCTSWORLD MARKET SITUATION AND WORLD MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCTSOUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. WORLD DAIRY ECONOMY: MAIN DATA AND TRENDS
2. IDF WDS 2003 FIRST PREVIEW
1. WORLD DAIRY ECONOMY: MAIN DATA AND TRENDS
Trends in milk production and the world population(index base 100 in 1970)
Trends in milk production and the world population(index base 100 in 1970)
Apparent consumption of dairy products,Relatively stable between 1970 and 1990, declining for the past 10 years
Source: CFCE / FAO
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
world population
world milk production
1970pop : 3,7 bil.inhab.milk prod: 392 mil t
consump.app: 106 kg/inhab
2001pop: 6,1bil.inhab.
Milk prod: 579 Moi tApp consump.: 96 kg/inhab
Apparent per capita consumption trends world-wideof various animal and plant products between 1970 and 2001
NB: sharp decline: -20%and less; slight decline: -10 to –20% ; stable: -10 to 10%;slight rise: 10 to 30%; strong rise: 30 to 60%; very strong rise: 60% and more
Trends in world milk production:from the 1970’s until the introduction of quotas
(1984)
Trends in world milk production:from the 1970’s until the introduction of quotas
(1984) Strong production growth, apparent on all the continents …
except in Oceania
W Europe :+ 31South Asia :+ 24CEEC + CIS :+ 24Nafta :+ 11S. America : + 8S.E. Asia : + 6Mid&Near East + N Africa : + 4Rest of Africa : + 2Oceania : + 0
+ 110 million tonnes in 14
years
Source: CFCE / FAO
350
400
450
500
550
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
392
Millions of tonnes
504 +1,8%/ year
Trends in world milk production:from introduction of quotas (1984) until
2001
Trends in world milk production:from introduction of quotas (1984) until
Rising zonesS. Asia :+ 59S. America :+ 21Nafta :+ 18S.E. Asia :+ 13Mid&Near East + N. Africa :+ 11Oceania :+ 11
Source: CFCE / FAO
500
520
540
560
580
600
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
585
504
Millions of tonnes
526
542
+ 1,3%/year
+ 1,2%/year
S. Asia1984 : 11%2001 : 20%
Source : CFCE / FAO
W. Europe 1984 : 31%2001 : 24%
CEEC + CIS1984 : 27%
2001 : 16,5%
N.Africa+MidEast1984 : 2%2001 : 4%
NAFTA1984 : 15%2001 : 16%
Central Am. + Caribbean1984, 2001 : 1%
S. America1984 : 5% 2001 : 8%
Other Africa1984, 2001 : 2%
Oceania1984 : 3%2001 : 4%
Shares of different regions worldwide in milk production:from the introduction of quotas (1984) to the year 2001
declining zones
developping zones
European production domination is gradually crumbling away,to the benefit of other zones (Asia in particular)
S.E. Asia1984 : 3%
2001 : 4,5%
Western Europe 302
CEEC + CIS230
N.Africa+MidEast65
NAFTA226
S. America133
Other Africa21
S. Asia80
Oceania810
World 95
Source: CFCE / FAO
Regional variations in the milk production: inhabitant ratio
in 2001 (kg per capita)
Any growth in production in Oceania has a big impact on world trade (local absorption potential saturated)
S.E. Asia13
Cent. Am., Caribbean51
Strong progress in milk production in Asia (or in Africa) would in fact have a limited impact on world trade in view of the low initial ratio [production / inhabitant] (high local absorption potential)
The "dominant thought" in terms of milk production trends
-0,20,00,0Japan
1,61,33,8Australia
na1,02,3India
5,93,32,5China
na2,52,7Brazil
1,10,52,7Argentina
4,41,83,0N Zealand
0,02,71,1Mexico
1,11,30,7United States
0,62,41,1Russia
0,00,1-0,1EU
1,3na1,4World
OECDFAPRIFAO
Average annual development (%) at the 7 to 10 year horizon *
* FAO (2000 to 2010), FAPRI (2001 to 2011; cow only), OECD (2000 to 2007)
Some points in common:
Stabilisation in the EU, Japan
Progress in China, India, Oceania, Russia, United States, Brazil
What will be the trend for the ratio [milk production / inhabitant]from 2000 to 2010 ? (kg per capita)
3 238
584
67
9
81
268
131
96
269
219
334
96
Prod / Pop
2000
67+ 10Japan
785+ 1+ 5Australia
89+ 95+ 21India
11+ 62+ 3China
153+ 12+ 7Brazil
313+ 3+ 3Argentina
3 9150 + 4N Zealand
93+ 9+ 1Mexico
275+ 8+ 6UnitedStates
246- 1+ 4Russia
333+ 1-1EU
98+ 738+ 86World
Prod / Pop
2010
Pop. Mio inhab.
Prod. Mio t
Source: CFCE / FAO projections
Little changefor the EU, Asia
Strong progressfor Oceania
=> control of world trade
Significant progress for Russia, Argentina, Brazil=> less unobtrusive role on world trade ?
50
100
150
200
250
75
80
85
90
95
00
Whey powder
Full cream powder
Cheese
Condensed milk
Butter + Ghee
Skim powder
Production trends for dairy products, world-wide (based on the year 1975)
Rising products
«Stagnant» products
Trends in milk production and in world dairyproducts trade expressed in milk equivalents
Trend index, based on 100 in 1970
World trade* develops three times as fast as
world production:3.7% / year versus
1.3% / year
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
world trade in dairy products (milk éq)
world milk production
1970production : 392 million t
trade : 24 million t 2000production : 579 million t
trade : 72 million t
* regional and trans-continental trade
Intra-EU trade and world trade in 2000Intra-EU trade and world trade in 2000
Regional trade dominates trade in consumer products.
Intra-EU trade alone accounts for the vast majority of world flows in retail-pack milk and cream, yogurt and cheese.
132201 710Full-cream milk powder
305401 810Skimmed milk powder
39490 1 260Butter
581 8603 180Cheese
505101 050Condensed milks
701 0501 500Yogurt, fermented milk
85600710Cream
885 1105 780Liquid milk
% intra EU
Intra-EU
trade
World
trade*
* intra-EU included
1 zone of slight surplus
CEEC + CIS102%
223 kg/inhab.S.E. Asia
71%18 kg/inhab.N.Africa&MidEast
81%83 kg/inhab.
NAFTA99%
231 kg/inhab.
Cent. Am. & Caribbean71%
71 kg/inhab.
S. America98%
138 kg/inhab.
Other Africa89%
25 kg/inhab.
S. Asia99%
81 kg/hab.
Oceania236%
331 kg/inhab
Source: CFCE / FAO * :apparent production / consumption
Degree (%) of self-sufficiency* in dairy products in 2000apparent consumption level per capita
4 zones of low production
4 «balanced» or almost balanced zones1 zone resolutely focussed on exporting
Western Europe 109%
286 kg/inhab.
FAO projections on foreign trade between 1999 and 2010
Growth in trade (intra-EU trade excl.) from 10 to 11 million tonnes
Russia
Mexico
Thaïland
China
South Korea
Japan
Morocco
Egypt
Nigeria
Malaisia
Venezuela
Algeria
EU
IndiaSaudiArabia
Poland
BrazilUnited States
1 to 2.50.5 to 10.2 to 0.5~ stable- 0.2 to –0.5
Import projections (in millions of tonnes of milk equivalent)
Nothing really upsetting in these projections, where the main assertions are:
Mexico, Russia and the Far East would be the most dynamic import zones
No country would show a sharp decline in its imports
FAO projections on foreign trade between 1999 and 2010
-0.5 to
–2.5
EU
-2.5 and more
Argentina
1 to 2.5
Australia
N Zealand
Poland
India
South Africa
Chili
Uruguay
Canada
Russia
United States
Switzerland
2.5 and more
0.5 to 10.2 to 0.5~ stable- 0.2 to
- 0.5
Export projections (in millions of tonnes of milk equivalent)
More disputable projections, marked by a clear bias, and with the main assertions of:
Very contrasted development between the two big exporting poles; strong rise in Oceania, big decline in the EU
Trend towards increasing exports from Argentina, Poland and India
Transcontinental trade: basic or complex ingredients (few consumer products)
Regional trade:consumer products + ingredients
Structuring of foreign trade in dairy products
Regardless of the value of
these projections,
a key idea to bear in mind:
the main sources of
added value are at local level…
rarely in big exports
Top 40 EU dairy companies 2001, ranked by total amount of milk processed *
Expected Change of Milk Production 2002 vs 2001 Expected Change of Milk Production 2002 vs 2001
in m t
35
24
0,4
Cow Buffalo Goat Sheep,Other
Change of Milk Production Change of Milk Production
2002 to 92
in m t
33
Change of Cow Milk Production Change of Cow Milk Production 2002 : 19922002 : 19922002 : 19922002 : 1992
-22%-23mt
+2.2%+ 2.8mt
+20%(+32mt)
+55%(+9mt)
OceaniaOceania The The AmericasAmericas
EUEU
CEEC; CEEC; CISCIS
EU 15
115
120
125
m.t.
Cow Milk Production in Different World RegionsCow Milk Production in Different World Regions
EU/Western Europe: EU/Western Europe: up 0.3 mt in 2002, up 0.3 mt in 2002, after +0.5 in 2001,after +0.5 in 2001,no change in 2003no change in 2003
CEEC
30
35
40
CEEC: + 0.3 m t in CEEC: + 0.3 m t in 2002, ongoing 2002, ongoing recovery in 2003 recovery in 2003
1998 2000 2002
Cow Milk Production in Different World RegionsCow Milk Production in Different World Regions
C I S
40
50
60 CIS: 2002 recovery CIS: 2002 recovery in Russia and in Russia and Ukraine reportedUkraine reported
Asia
60
70
1998 20002000 2002
+1 m t in 2002,+1 m t in 2002,ongoing growthongoing growthin 2003 likelyin 2003 likely
m.t.
North America
85
90
95
1998 2000 2002
m.t.
Cow Milk Production in Different World RegionsCow Milk Production in Different World Regions
+ 2 m t in 2002, + 2 m t in 2002, after decline in after decline in 2001 in USA2001 in USA
South America
30
40
Increase in 2002 Increase in 2002 ((mainly in Brazil and mainly in Brazil and Chile, recovery 2003 Chile, recovery 2003 in Argentina after in Argentina after declinedecline))
Cow Milk Production in Different World RegionsCow Milk Production in Different World Regions
+ 0.5 m t in 2002/03, + 0.5 m t in 2002/03, (mainly in (mainly in NZ), NZ), also reduced growth in also reduced growth in
2003/04 due to draught 2003/04 due to draught
Oceania
20
25
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02
m.t.
2002/03
Worldwide Dairy Productions2001
Worldwide Dairy Productions2001
• Liquid milk etc grown in 2001, also in Liquid milk etc grown in 2001, also in traditional markets like EUtraditional markets like EU
• Butter production unchangedButter production unchanged
• Cheese slower growth (+0.3 mt), Cheese slower growth (+0.3 mt), despite strong growth in EUdespite strong growth in EU